滑坡堵江坝溃决洪水及其演进的理论分析

崩滑堵江事件在世界范围内,尤其在山区广泛存在.溃坝后形成的洪水异常凶猛,洪峰高达几米至几十米,演进过程中常造成下游严重灾害.因此,崩滑堵江事件及其灾害链已严重影响人类的工程经济活动.本文对溃决洪水流量、洪峰及其演进过程进行了理论分析,建立了一套预测溃坝洪水特征的计算公式,并用实例验证,取得了较好的效果.     

Performance of the horizontal drains in upstream shell of earth dams on the upstream slope stability during rapid drawdown conditions

Slope stability analysis during rapid drawdown is an important consideration in the design of embankment dams. During rapid drawdown, the stabilizing effect of the water on the upstream face is lost, but the pore water pressures within the embankment may remain high. As a result, the stability of the upstream face of the dam can be much reduced. Installing horizontal drains is a very efficient and cost-effective method for reducing the pore water pressure and increasing the stability of the upstream slope. The theory of horizontal drains in the upstream shell of earth dams is well established, but there seems to be limited resources available for the design of this type of horizontal drains. Hence, this study is focused on the performance of horizontal drains in the upstream shell of the slope of earth dams on the upstream slope stability during rapid drawdown conditions. The parametric study has been conducted on the variation of horizontal drain parameters such as the number of drains, their length, and their location. In this study, ten scenarios were analyzed based on different drainage configurations and the performance of each scenario is investigated on the seepage and the upstream slope stability during rapid drawdown conditions using finite element and limit equilibrium methods. The results demonstrated that the stability of the upstream slope during rapid drawdown conditions increases by increasing the number of drains. The length of drains extending further from its intersection with the critical failure surface does not provide any significant change in the factor of safety. Finally, the study also found that installing drains in the lower region of the upstream shell of earth dams gives more stability than those installed in higher elevations.     

Reconstruction and effects of a failure of a typical check dam system under an extreme rainstorm on the Loess Plateau,China

Check dam systems are extensively utilized on the Loess Plateau. However, the development of the check dam system is restrained due to the failure hazard. To investigate the failure process of the check dam system and the corresponding effect, a hydrodynamic simulation was conducted in this study based on the failure of a typical check dam system, which occurred on 15 July 2012. The simulation was regarded as satisfactory based on verification with observed data of the peak discharge at the outlet of the catchment (NSE?=?0.61, R²?=?0.83), breaches of damaged check dams (relative error?<?20%) and maximum water depths in the front of 2 check dams (relative error of ? 13.4% and?+?4%). The simulation results indicated that the series failure in the tributary ditch did not cause the stack of peak discharges, and the peak flood discharge at the outlet of the catchment in this failure increased 20% compared to the status without dam-break and decreased 87% compared to the status without check dam.

     

Experimental study on cascading landslide dam failures by upstream flows

Landslide dams in mountainous areas are quite common. Typically, intense rainfalls can induce upstream flows along the sloping channel, which greatly affects the stability and failure modes of landslide dams. If a series of landslide dams are sequentially collapsed by an incoming mountain torrent (induced by intense rainfall), large debris flows can be formed in a short period of time. This also amplifies the magnitude of the debris flows along the flow direction. The catastrophic debris flows, which occurred in Zhouqu, China on August 8, 2010, were indeed caused by intense rainfall and the upstream cascading failure of landslide dams along the gullies. Experimental tests were conducted in a sloping channel to understand the dynamic process of cascading landslide dam failures and their effect on flow scale amplification. Similar to the Zhouqu conditions, the modeled landslide dams were distributed along a sloping channel and breached by different upstream flows. For each experiment, the front flows were sampled, the entrained grain sizes were analyzed, and the front discharge along the channel was measured. The results of these experiments show that landslide dams occurring along the channel can be destroyed by both high and low discharge flows, although the mechanisms are quite different for the two flow types. Regardless of flow type, the magnitude of the flows significantly increases after a cascading failure of landslide dams, resulting in an increase in both the diameter and the entrained coarse particles percentage.     

无粘性均质土石坝漫顶溃决试验研究

针对当前土石坝溃决机理试验研究中泥沙粒径取值偏小、各砂样粒径相差不大的现状,采用粒径对比明显的两组砂样进行了土石坝漫顶溃决试验.试验表明,在给定的较强的初始冲刷条件下,粗细两种颗粒坝体的溃决过程基本一致,均是以水流的下切侵蚀为主,在坝顶下缘位置有溯源冲刷现象出现.整个溃决过程可明显分为3个阶段,第1阶段为坝顶下缘处陡坎形成阶段;第2阶段为陡坎坍塌,冲刷加剧阶段;第3阶段为出现逆行沙垄的冲刷终止阶段.试验还发现,下游坝坡对溃决过程的影响比较显著,坝坡越陡,坝顶侵蚀速率越快,洪峰值越大.另外,由于粗颗粒抗冲刷性强,同等条件下粗颗粒坝体溃决洪水过程偏矮胖,洪峰值偏小,但是值得注意的是,相比于较大的颗粒粒径差距而言,其洪峰值的差异并不是太大.     

Stability of landslide dams and development of knickpoints

The Wenchuan earthquake triggered many landslides and numerous avalanches and created 100 odd quake lakes. The quake lakes may be removed or preserved. The removal strategy was applied to several large landslide dams, which were dangerous because massive amounts of water pooled up in the quake lakes. The dams could eventually fail under the action of dam outburst flooding, potentially endangering the lives of people in the downstream reaches. This paper studied the stability of landslide dams and the development of knickpoints by field investigations and experiments, and analyzing satellite images. The study concluded that if landslide dams were preserved, they would develop into knickpoints and act as a primary control of riverbed incision and, thus, reduce the potential of new landslide. The stability of landslide dams depends mainly on the development of the step-pool system and stream power of the flood flow. If a landslide dam consists of many boulders, a step-pool system may develop on the spillway channel of the dam, which would maximize the resistance, consume most of the flow energy and consequently protect the dam from incision. The development degree of the step-pool system is represented by a parameter S _p, which was measured with a specially designed instrument. A preservation ratio of landslide dams is defined as the ratio of preserved height after flood scouring to the original height of the dam. For streams with peak flood discharge lower than 30 m³/s, the preservation ratio is linearly proportional to S _p. For rivers with a peak flood discharge higher than 30 m³/s (30–30,000 m³/s), the minimum S _p value for stable channel increases with log p, in which p is the unit stream power. For a landslide dam with a poorly developed step-pool system, S _p is smaller than the minimum value and the outburst flood incises the spillway channel and causes failure of the dam. For preserved landslide dams, sediment deposits in the quake lakes. A landslide dam may develop into a knickpoint if it is stabilized by long-term action of the flow. Large knickpoints can totally change the fluvial processes and river morphology. Uplift of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau has caused extensive channel bed incision along almost all rivers. For many rivers, the incision has been partly controlled by knickpoints. Upstream reaches of a knickpoint have a new and unchanging base level. This brings about a transition from degradation to aggradation and from vertical bed evolution to horizontal fluvial process. Multiple and unstable channels are prominent in the reaches, upstream of the knickpoints. If hundreds of landslide dams occurred simultaneously on a reach of a mountain river, the potential energy of bank failure and the slope erosion would be greatly reduced and sediment yield from the watershed may be reduced to nearly zero. The quake lakes may be preserved long term and become beautiful landscapes. Streams with long-term unfilled quake lakes have good aquatic ecology.     

Logistic regression model for predicting the failure probability of a landslide dam

Landslides may obstruct river flow and result in landslide dams; they occur in many regions of the world. The formation and disappearance of natural lakes involve a complex earth–surface process. According to the lessons learned from many historical cases, landslide dams usually break down rapidly soon after the formation of the lake. Regarding hazard mitigation, prompt evaluation of the stability of the landslide dam is crucial. Based on a Japanese dataset, this study utilized the logistic regression method and the jack-knife technique to identify the important geomorphic variables, including peak flow (or catchment area), dam height, width and length in sequence, affecting the stability of landslide dams. The resulting high overall prediction power demonstrates the robustness of the proposed logistic regression models. Accordingly, the failure probability of a landslide dam can also be evaluated based on this approach. Ten landslide dams (formed after the 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake, the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and 2009 Typhoon Morakot) with complete dam geometry records were adopted as examples of evaluating the failure probability. The stable Tsao-Ling landslide dam, which was induced by the Chi-Chi earthquake, has a failure probability of 27.68% using a model incorporating the catchment area and dam geometry. On the contrary, the Tangjiashan landslide dam, which was artificially breached soon after its formation during the Wenchuan earthquake, has a failure probability as high as 99.54%. Typhoon Morakot induced the Siaolin landslide dam, which was breached within one hour after its formation and has a failure probability of 71.09%. Notably, the failure probability of the earthquake induced cases is reduced if the catchment area in the prediction model is replaced by the peak flow of the dammed stream for these cases. In contrast, the predicted failure probability of the heavy rainfall-induced case increases if the high flow rate of the dammed stream is incorporated into the prediction model. Consequently, it is suggested that the prediction model using the peak flow as causative factor should be used to evaluate the stability of a landslide dam if the peak flow is available. Together with an estimation of the impact of an outburst flood from a landslide-dammed lake, the failure probability of the landslide dam predicted by the proposed logistic regression model could be useful for evaluating the related risk.     

Dam-break risk analysis of the Attabad landslide dam in Pakistan and emergency countermeasures

The Attabad landslide dam caused significant property losses and many human casualties in Pakistan, and also greatly affected the operation of the China-Pakistan Karakoram Highway (KKH). This paper discusses the risk of dam breach and hazards to the KKH project construction site following a dam breach. The paper examines the following three topics. (1) The geomorphologic dimensionless blockage index (DBI) and the analogy method were used to analyze the stability of the Attabad landslide dam. The long-term behaviors of landslide dams downstream of the Attabad landslide dam indicate that the risk of a dam breach exists, but the probability of a total dam failure is low. (2) The peak discharge of a potential breach of the Attabad landslide dam was calculated for scenarios in which 1/4, 1/3, 1/2, and total failure of the dam was breached. The potential breach discharge decreases with the downstream distance. (3) The potential impacts of the landslide dam breach on the KKH project construction site were analyzed. Based on the composition of the landslide dam, the probability of a 1/3 dam breach is high. To ensure the safety of downstream areas, disaster preparedness plans that correspond to the 1/2 dam breach scenario should be developed. Based on experience in addressing the landslide dam that was caused by the Wenchuan Earthquake, artificial controlled drainage measures are suggested and provide a technical reference for addressing the Attabad landslide dam and achieving recovery and normal operation of KKH.     

Rock Mass Behavior Under Hydropower Embankment Dams: A Two-Dimensional Numerical Study

Sweden has more than 190 large hydropower dams, of which about 50 are pure embankment dams and over 100 are concrete/embankment dams. This paper presents results from conceptual analyses of the response of typical Swedish rock mass to the construction of a hydropower embankment dam and its first stages of operation. The aim is to identify locations and magnitudes of displacements that are occurring in the rock foundation and grout curtain after construction of the dam, the first filling of its water reservoir, and after one seasonal variation of the water table. Coupled hydro-mechanical analysis was conducted using the two-dimensional distinct element program UDEC. Series of the simulations have been performed and the results show that the first filling of the reservoir and variation of water table induce largest magnitudes of displacement, with the greatest values obtained from the two models with high differential horizontal stresses and smallest spacing of sub-vertical fractures. These results may help identifying the condition of the dam foundation and contribute to the development of proper maintenance measures, which guarantee the safety and functionality of the dam. Additionally, newly developed dams may use these results for the estimation of the possible response of the rock foundation to the construction.     

Development of an empirical model for predicting peak breach flow of landslide dams considering material composition

The existing empirical models do not consider the influence of material composition of landslide deposits on the peak breach flow due to the uncertainty in the material composition and the randomness of its distribution. In this study, based on the statistical analyses and case comparison, the factors influencing the peak breach flow were comprehensively investigated. The highlight is the material composition-based classification of landslide deposits of 86 landslide cases with detailed grain-size distribution information. In order to consider the geometric morphology of landslide dams and the potential energy of dammed lakes, as well as the material composition of landslide deposits in an empirical model, a multiple regression method was applied on a database, which comprises of 44 documented landslide dam breach cases. A new empirical model for predicting the peak breach flow of landslide dams was developed. Furthermore, for the same 44 documented landslide dam failures, the predicted peak breach flow obtained by using the existing empirical models for embankment and landslide dams and that obtained by using the newly developed model were compared. The comparison of the root mean square error (E_rms) and the multiple coefficient of determination (R²) for each empirical model verifies the accuracy and rationality of the new empirical model. Furthermore, for fair validation, several landslide dam breach cases that occurred in recent years in China and have reliable measured data were also used in another comparison. The results show that the new empirical model can reasonably predict the peak breach flow, and exhibits the best performance among all the existing empirical models for embankment and landslide dam breaching.

     

基于ABAQUS模拟渗流作用下的大坝浸润面分析

堰塞坝是由崩塌、滑坡等堵塞河道而形成的天然坝体。区别于人工坝,堰塞坝具有坝体结构松散、材料分布不均的特点,其一旦形成,极易在短时间内发生失稳破坏(漫顶溢流、渗流破坏及坝坡失稳),威胁下游群众的生命财产安全。堰塞坝的失稳破坏主要受到上游水位、坝体渗流及余震作用的影响,本文以唐家山堰塞坝为研究背景,基于通用有限元软件ABAQUS建立堰塞坝渗流及动力响应分析模型,研究堰塞坝在渗流及余震作用下的稳定性,并进一步分析渗流及坝体余震对堰塞坝溃坝模式的影响。研究结果表明,(1)唐家山堰塞坝坝体发生渗透破坏的可能性较小,但随着上游水位的上升,堰塞坝发生渗流破化的概率增大;(2)堰塞坝内部动力响应特征表现为沿坝高从上到下,坝体的加速度放大倍数逐渐减小,动力响应呈现明显的“表面放大”效应;(3)余震作用下,堰塞坝不会发生整体失稳破坏,但余震使得堰塞坝坝高降低,从而加速其发生漫顶溢流破坏。     

A reliability based approach for evaluating the slope stability of embankment dams

Embankment dams are important and costly civil engineering structures that provide an essential infrastructure for the management of water. One of the critical aspects of dam design is the analysis of stability and safety of the earth structure under various operating and environmental conditions. Traditionally, a deterministic approach is used for such analysis. However, the determination of variables such as soil strength parameters, pore pressure and other pertinent properties involves uncertainties, which cannot be handled in the traditional deterministic methods. It is, therefore, highly desirable to develop a reliability based analytical/numerical methodology for stability analysis of dams taking into account these uncertainties. Reliability and probability theories are developed in this paper for assessing the reliability index and the corresponding probability of failure of multi-layered embankment dams and slopes. Two definitions were used to calculate the reliability index (i.e. the normal distribution and the log–normal distribution). The computer program was developed and validated by the Congress Street open cut failure case. The developed approach was used to study the stability of the King Talal embankment dam. The results are discussed and conclusions drawn.     

Fuzzy algorithm for estimating average breach widths of embankment dams

Dam breach width significantly influences peak breach outflow, inundation levels, and flood arrival time, but uncertainties inherent in the prediction of its value for embankment dams make its accurate estimation a challenging task in dam risk assessments. The key focus of this paper is to provide a fuzzy logic (FL) model for estimating the average breach width of embankment dams as an alternative to regression equations (RE). The FL approach is capable of handling nonlinear behavior, imprecision in discrete measurements, and parameter uncertainty. Historical data from 69 embankment dam failures are used in the development and testing of the FL model. Application of the FL model is also presented for estimating average breach widths of two case studies that have adequately documented data. The accuracy of the FL rule-based model is investigated using uncertainty analysis: the mean prediction error between the FL estimates and the observed average breach widths is very small (=0.03) and comparable to that achieved using the best available RE. Moreover, the FL uncertainty band is found to be approximately ±0.51 order of magnitude smaller than the ±0.56 order of magnitude achieved with the best available RE. The simulation results indicate the potential of the FL model to be used as a predictive tool for estimating the average breach width of embankment dams.     

A simple approach to evaluating leakage through thin impervious element of high embankment dams

Internal erosion is the most common reason which induces failure of embankment dams besides overtopping. Relatively large leakage is frequently concentrated at defects of impervious element, and this will lead to eventual failure. The amount of leakage depends not only on integrity of impervious element, but also on dam height, shape of valley, shape of impervious element and water level in reservoir. The integrity of impervious element, which represents the relative level of seepage safety, is not easy to be determined quantitatively. A simple method for generalization of steady seepage state of embankment dams with thin impervious element is proposed in this paper. The apparent overall value of permeability coefficient for impervious element can be obtained by this method with reasonable accuracy and efficiency. A defect parameter of impervious element is defined as an index to characterize seepage safety of embankment dams. It equals the ratio of the apparent overall value of permeability coefficient to the measured value in laboratory for intact materials. Subsequently, seepage safety of three dams is evaluated and the evolution of defect level of impervious element of dams is investigated. It is proved that the newly proposed method in this paper is feasible in the evaluation of relative seepage safety level of embankment dams with thin impervious element.     

A systematic approach for the assessment of flooding hazard and risk associated with a landslide dam

Inundation caused by landslide dams may occur in the upstream and downstream of the dams. A proper flooding hazard assessment is required for reaction planning and decision-making to mitigate possible flooding hazards caused by landslide dams. Both quick and detailed procedures can be used to evaluate inundation hazards, depending on the available time and information. This paper presents a systematic approach for the assessment of inundation hazards and risks caused by landslide dam formation and breaches. The approach includes the evaluation of dam-breach probability, assessment of upstream inundation hazard, assessment of downstream inundation hazard, and the classification of flooding risk. The proposed assessment of upstream inundation estimates the potential region of inundation and predicts the overtopping time. The risk level of downstream flooding is evaluated using a joint consideration of the breach probability of a landslide dam and the level of flooding hazard, which is classified using a flooding hazard index that indicates the risk of potential inundation. This paper proposes both quick and detailed procedures for the assessments of inundation in both the upstream and downstream of a landslide dam. An example of a landslide dam case study in southern Taiwan was used to demonstrate the applicability of the systematic approach.     

A reliability-based approach to evaluating the stability of high rockfill dams using a nonlinear shear strength criterion

In recent years, many high rockfill dams have been constructed in China for the purpose of hydropower generation. One of the critical aspects of rockfill dam design is the analysis of slope stability. Triaxial compression tests show that the failure envelopes of rockfills are curved and that nonlinear shear strength criteria yield better predictions of the shear strengths of rockfills than the Mohr–Coulomb criterion. Because the determination of shear strength parameters involves uncertainties, a reliability-based methodology was developed for use in evaluating the failure probability of rockfill dam slopes by integrating Bishop’s simplified method, Duncan’s nonlinear strength criterion and the first-order second-moment reliability method presented in this paper. A computer program, SCU-SLIDE, was developed and its outputs validated by comparison with Monte Carlo simulation results. The approach developed was used to study the stability of the Shuang Jiang Kou rockfill embankment dam, which when completed will be the tallest dam in the world. The results of the stability analysis are discussed and conclusions are presented in this paper.     

An evaluation of existent methods for estimation of embankment dam breach parameters

The study of dam-break analysis is considered important to predict the peak discharge during dam failure. This is essential to assess economic, social and environmental impacts downstream and to prepare the emergency response plan. Dam breach parameters such as breach width, breach height and breach formation time are the key variables to estimate the peak discharge during dam break. This study presents the evaluation of existing methods for estimation of dam breach parameters. Since all of these methods adopt regression analysis, uncertainty analysis of these methods becomes necessary to assess their performance. Uncertainty was performed using the data of more than 140 case studies of past recorded failures of dams, collected from different sources in the literature. The accuracy of the existing methods was tested, and the values of mean absolute relative error were found to be ranging from 0.39 to 1.05 for dam breach width estimation and from 0.6 to 0.8 for dam failure time estimation. In this study, artificial neural network (ANN) was recommended as an alternate method for estimation of dam breach parameters. The ANN method is proposed due to its accurate prediction when it was applied to similar other cases in water resources.

     

超高沥青混凝土心墙高应力水平的降低措施研究

随着沥青混凝土心墙堆石坝的快速发展,超高沥青混凝土心墙堆石坝建设迎来了前所未有的机遇,但随着坝高的增加,心墙的安全挑战也变得异常突出。基于应力水平的定义,提出降低超高沥青混凝土心墙高应力水平的措施,依托心墙应力水平的敏感性研究,推算了独立满足和综合满足心墙屈服剪切破坏控制标准的心墙材料强度参数(最敏感材料参数)取值范围。研究表明,心墙应力水平随坝高和河谷岸坡坡比的增加而显著增大;心墙破坏比R_f、黏聚力c和内摩擦角φ属于高敏感性参数;增大心墙破坏比R_f、黏聚力c和内摩擦角φ,能够显著地降低心墙应力水平;推荐适宜建设超高沥青混凝土心墙堆石坝的心墙破坏比R_f、黏聚力c和内摩擦角φ取值范围:R_f≥0.8、c≥0.4MPa和φ≥31.5°(坝高h=200 m),且随坝高的增长梯度按5%/25 m、15%/25 m和5%/25 m进行调整。     

滑坡堰塞坝越顶溢流破坏的物理模型实验

滑坡堰塞坝作为结构松散的堆积物,随着上游水位的不断上涨,其稳定性不断降低,并存在突然溃坝的风险。以唐家山滑坡堰塞坝为研究对象,基于相似原理,开展符合坝体颗粒级配的室内水槽物理模型实验,模拟了不同坝后蓄水量、不同水位和不同颗粒物质组成条件下坝体渗流、漫顶破坏的整个过程。监测结果显示：堰塞坝漫顶溃坝主要分为渗流、漫顶、冲刷和溃决4个过程;坝体堆积颗粒级配越差,坝体允许渗流坡降越小;相同材料配比的坝体,上游水位相同时,坝体底部水平位移最大,且漫顶溃坝时溃口尺寸与蓄水量正相关。该研究结果揭示了堰塞坝漫顶破坏规律,可为堰塞坝溃坝防治提供理论参考。     

The effect of reservoir length on seismic performance of gravity dams to near- and far-fault ground motions

In this article, the effect of reservoir length on seismic performance of gravity dams to near- and far-fault ground motions is investigated. For this purpose, four finite element models of dam–reservoir–foundation interaction system are prepared by using the Lagrangian approach. In these models, the reservoir length varies from H to 4H (H: the height of dam). The Folsom gravity dam is selected as a numerical application. Two different ground motion records of 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake are used in the analyses. One of ground motions is recorded in near fault; the other is recorded in far fault. Also, the two records have the same peak ground acceleration. The study mainly consists of three parts to assess the effects of reservoir length on the seismic performance of the concrete gravity dam. In the first part, the linear time-history analyses of the four finite element models prepared for the Folsom gravity dam are performed. In the second part, the seismic performance of the dam is evaluated according to demand–capacity ratio and cumulative inelastic duration. Finally, the nonlinear time-history analyses of the finite element models of the dam are carried out by using Drucker–Prager yield criteria for dam concrete. It is seen from the analyses results that the seismic behavior of the concrete gravity dams is considerably affected from the length of the reservoir. The reservoir length of 3H is adequate for concrete gravity dams. The selection of ground motion is on of the important parts of seismic evaluation of gravity dams. Also, the frequency characteristics of the ground motion having the same peak ground acceleration affect the seismic performance of the dam. The near-fault ground motions are generally creates more stress on the dam body than far-fault ground motions. The used performance approach provides a systematic methodology for assessment of the seismic performance and necessity of nonlinear analyses for dam systems.