Prediction of time series by the method of analogs

We consider an algorithm of prediction of nonstationary time series based on the method of analogs. Since the exhaustion of a great number of versions is required for the adjustment of the parameters of the optimal prognostic model, we describe a genetic algorithm used in this case. We consider several procedures of construction of prognostic models. The numerical results are used to choose the procedure guaranteeing the minimum mean square error. The parameters of the model affecting the quality of predictions are determined. The proposed method is tested by using the reanalysis data (NCEP/NCAR project) on the anomalies of the monthly average surface air temperature for 58 yr. The results of predictions are compared with the estimates obtained by the linear regression method. It is shown that the method of analogs gives satisfactory results even in the cases where the regression methods lead to errors equal to the variance of predicted series. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 70–80, July–August, 2007.     

Turbulent structure of the subsurface layer of the sea according to the data of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Sigma-1</Emphasis> measuring complex

We present the results of experimental investigations of the characteristics of turbulence in the layer of wave-induced mixing. The data on the fluctuations of velocity, temperature, and conductivity are obtained with the help of a Sigma-1 measuring complex. The computed values of the dissipation rate of turbulent energy are compared with different models proposed for the subsurface layer. It is shown that the available models fail to guarantee satisfactory agreement of the numerical results with the experimental data for the layer of active wave action and, in particular, in the presence of swell. This leads us to the conclusion concerning the necessity of parametrization and assimilation of more complete data on the state of the sea surface, the structure of currents, and the surface layer of the atmosphere in the models. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 2, pp. 15–28, March–April, 2007.     

Habitat suitability index of Chub mackerel (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Scomber japonicus</Emphasis>) from July to September in the East China Sea

The habitat quality of Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) in the East China Sea has been a subject of concern in the last 10 years due to large fluctuations in annual catches of this stock. For example, the Chinese light-purse seine fishery recorded 84000 tons in 1999 compared to 17000 tons in 2006. The fluctuations have been attributed to variability in habitat quality. The habitat suitability Index (HSI) has been widely used to describe fish habitat quality and in fishing ground forecasting. In this paper we use catch data and satellite derived environmental variables to determine habitat suitability indices for Chub mackerel during July to September in the East China Sea. More than 90% of the total catch was found to come from the areas with sea surface temperature of 28.0°–29.4°C, sea surface salinity of 33.6–34.2 psu, chlorophyll-a concentration of 0.15–0.50 mg/m³ and sea surface height anomaly of −0.1–1.1 m. Of the four conventional models of HSI, the Arithmetic Mean Model (AMM) was found to be most suitable according to Akaike Information Criterion analysis. Based on the estimation of AMM in 2004, the monthly HSIs in the waters of 123°–125°E and 27°30′–28°00′ N were more than 0.6 during July to September, which coincides with the catch distribution in the same time period. This implies that AMM can yield a reliable prediction of the Chub mackerel’s habitat in the East China Sea.     

Improved interpretation of the data of observations of the black sea by a SeaWiFS satellite instrument in autumn 1998

By analyzing, as an example, the data of observations of the Black Sea from the space in autumn 1998, we conclude that, in some cases, the atmospheric distortions manifest themselves in all measuring channels of SeaWiFS instruments and lead to significant errors in determining the concentration of chlorophyll according to the standard NASA algorithm. After additional rejection of the data with negative values of the spectral brightness of the sea surface at a wavelength of 412 nm, the results of evaluation the concentration of chlorophyll are in good agreement with the available data of direct measurements. We also present a detailed discussion of some specific features of operation of the NASA algorithm of atmospheric correction playing an important role in the interpretation of the data of observations of the Black Sea. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 2, pp. 68–79, March–April, 2008.     

Validation of ADEOS-II GLI ocean color products using in-situ observations

The Global Imager (GLI) aboard the Advanced Earth Observing Satellite-II (ADEOS-II) made global observations from 2 April 2003 to 24 October 2003. In cooperation with several institutes and scientists, we obtained quality controlled match-ups between GLI products and in-situ data, 116 for chlorophyll-a concentration (CHLA), 249 for normalized water-leaving radiance (nLw) at 443 nm, and 201 for aerosol optical thickness at 865 nm (Tau_865) and Angstrom exponent between 520 and 865 nm (Angstrom). We evaluated the GLI ocean color products and investigated the causes of errors using the match-ups. The median absolute percentage differences (MedPD) between GLI and in-situ data were 14.1–35.7% for nLws at 380–565 nm, 52.5–74.8% nLws at 625–680 nm, 47.6% for Tau_865, 46.2% for Angstrom, and 46.6% for CHLA, values that are comparable to the ocean-color products of other sensors. We found that some errors in GLI products are correlated with observational conditions; nLw values were underestimated when nLw at 680 nm was high, CHLA was underestimated in absorptive aerosol conditions, and Tau_865 was overestimated in sunglint regions. The error correlations indicate that we need to improve the retrievals of the optical properties of absorptive aerosols and seawater and sea surface reflection for further applications, including coastal monitoring and the combined use of products from multiple sensors.     

An Interpretation of the Seafloor Spreading History of the West Enderby Basin between Initial Breakup of Gondwana and Anomaly C34

The seafloor spreading evolution in the Southern Indian Ocean is key to understanding the initial breakup of Gondwana. We summarize the structural lineaments deduced from the GEOSAT 10 Hz sampled raw altimetry data as well as satellite derived gravity anomaly map and the magnetic anomaly lineation trends from vector magnetic anomalies in the West Enderby Basin, the Southern Indian Ocean. The gravity anomaly maps by both Sandwell and Smith 1997, J. Geophys. Res. 102, 10039–10054 and 10 Hz raw altimeter data show almost the same general trends. However, curved structural trends, which turn from NNW–SSE in the south to NNE–SSW in the north, are detected only from gravity anomaly maps by 10 Hz raw altimeter data just to the east of Gunnerus Ridge. NNE–SSW structural trends and magnetic anomaly lineation trends that are perpendicular to them are observed between the Gunnerus Ridge and the Conrad Rise. To the west of Gunnerus Ridge, structural elements trend NNE–SSW and magnetic polarity changes are normal to them. In contrast, almost NNW–SSE structural trends and ENE–WSW magnetic polarity reversal strikes are dominant to the east of Gunnerus Ridge. Curved structural trends, which turn from WNW–ESE direction in the south to NNE–SSW direction in the west, and magnetic polarity reversal strikes that are almost perpendicular to them are observed just south of Conrad Rise. The magnetic polarity reversals may be parts of the Mesozoic magnetic anomaly sequence that formed along side of the structural lineaments before the long Cretaceous normal polarity superchron. Curved structural trends, detected only from gravity anomaly maps by 10 Hz raw altimeter data, most likely indicate slight changes in spreading direction from an initial NNW–SSE direction to NNE–SSW. Our results also suggest that these curved structural trends are fracture zones that formed during initial breakup of Gondwana.     

Investigation of the sensitivity of the Mellor–Yamada parametrization to the choice of finite-difference analogs in a numerical three-dimensional model of the operative prediction of currents in the black sea

Within the framework of the Mellor–Yamada approach, we realize a numerical scheme for the calculation of the coefficients of turbulent viscosity and diffusion in the z -system of coordinates for the three-dimensional model of operative prediction of currents in the Black Sea. Some discrete analogs of the equations for turbulent kinetic energy and turbulence macroscale are studied. Their high sensitivity to the choice of finite-difference approximations is demonstrated. On the basis of the comparison of the results of prognostic experiments with the data of observations, we choose the best approximation of the term used to describe the generation pf turbulence energy.     

Assimilation of climatic hydrological data in a Black-Sea model based on the algorithm of adaptive statistics of prognostic errors

We propose an algorithm of adaptive statistics of prognostic errors aimed at the assimilation of the climatic temperature and salinity fields in a model of dynamics of the sea. The algorithm is used for the numerical solution of the proposed differential equations for the dispersions of prognostic errors of temperature and salinity. The sources in the equations of advective diffusion of heat and salt depend on the four-dimensional dispersions of prognostic errors and one-dimensional (along the vertical coordinate) dispersions of measurement errors. The dispersions of prognostic errors are corrected at the times of assimilation of the data. We perform the reconstruction and analysis of the climatic fields of currents in the Black Sea. It is shown that the structure of the fields of dispersions in the upper mixed layer is determined by the vertical diffusion. Below this layer, the distribution of dispersions depends on the vertical advection. The algorithm of adaptive statistics of prognostic errors allows us to reconstruct the improved mutually adapted hydrophysical parameters with regard for the dynamics of the dispersions of errors. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 1, pp. 26–37, January–February, 2008.     

Estimation of standing stock of chlorophylla and primary production from remote-sensed ocean color in the Oyashio region, the Western subarctic Pacific, during the spring bloom in 1997

In order to examine the applicability of remotely-sensed ocean color for the estimation of phytoplankton biomass and primary production in the Oyashio region, the western subarctic Pacific, vertical distributions of chlorophylla concentration and primary production were observed in April and May 1997. Spring bloom was observed in both April and May, and the surface concentration of chlorophylla exceeded 40 mg m⁻³. The relationship between the standing stocks of chlorophylla within the layer from the sea surface to one optical depth (0–1/k layer) and the surface chlorophylla concentration is expressed as a Michaelis-Menten equation. The mean ratio of the standing stock of chlorophylla in the euphotic layer to that in the 0–1/k layer was 4.41, this ratio did not significantly differ from 4.61 which was obtained at homogeneous distribution of chlorophylla within the euphotic layer. These facts suggest that the distribution of chlorophylla could be assumed to be homogeneous in the euphotic layer during the spring bloom. Results of primary production measurements by simulatedin situ method were compared with those by an algorithm with two variables; chlorphylla and non-spectral PAR. Daily primary production in the euphotic layer estimated by the algorithm varied in a range of 38–274% of that estimated by incubation, although the primary productions by the algorithm agreed with those by the incubation at a half of stations. Primary production within the euphotic layer calculated using simply the surface data was the same as that estimated using vertical distribution of chlorophylla. These results show that the primary production in the euphotic layer may be estimated from the remote sensed measurements during the spring bloom in the Oyashio region.     

Analysis of optical method of determining wave slopes from photographs of glitter zone

We analyze the optical method of determining wave slopes on the sea surface from measurements of the characteristics of the glitter zone on photographs. Two approaches to the implementing this are explored. Their merits and drawbacks are noted. Low-altitude (H = 5–20 m) photographs of the sea surface are used to acquire new diverse information on the fine structure of the glitter zone and its relation to the sea roughness. We present a number of new experimental data on the glitter features and structure that were omitted in the Cox-Munk method. The applicability range for this optical method is estimated.     

Time-series observation of dissolved inorganic carbon and nutrients in the northwestern North Pacific

Time-series measurements of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and nutrient concentrations were conducted in the northwestern North Pacific from October 2002 to August 2004. Assuming that data obtained in different years represented time-series seasonal data for a single year, vertical distributions of DIC and nutrients showed large seasonal variabilities in the surface layer (∼100 m). Seasonal variabilities in normalized DIC (nDIC) and nitrate concentrations at the sea surface were estimated to be 81–113 μmol kg⁻¹ and 12.7–15.7 μmol kg⁻¹, respectively, in the Western Subarctic Gyre. The variability in nutrients between May and July was generally at least double that in other seasons. In the Western Subarctic Gyre, estimations based on statistical analyses revealed that seasonal new production was 39–61 gC m⁻² and tended to be higher in the southwestern regions or coastal regions. The seasonal new productions in the northwestern North Pacific were two or more times higher than in the North Pacific subtropical gyre and the northeastern North Pacific. It is likely that this difference is due to spatial variations in the concentrations of trace metals and the species of phytoplankton present. In addition, from estimations of surface pCO₂ it was verified that the Western Subarctic Gyre is a source of atmospheric CO₂ between February and May and a sink for CO₂ between July and October.     

Japanese Ocean Flux Data Sets with Use of Remote Sensing Observations (J-OFURO)

We have constructed ocean surface data sets using mainly satellite data and called them Japanese Ocean Flux data sets with Use of Remote sensing Observations (J-OFURO). The data sets include shortwave radiation, longwave radiation, latent heat flux, sensible heat flux, and momentum flux etc. This article introduces J-OFURO and compares it with other global flux data sets such as European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data and da Silva et al. (1994). The usual ECMWF data are used for comparison of zonal wind. The comparison is carried out for a meridional profile along the dateline for January and July 1993. Although the overall spatial variation is common for all the products, there is a large difference between them in places. J-OFURO shortwave radiation in July shows larger meridional contrast than other data sets. On the other hand, J-OFURO underestimates longwave radiation flux at low- and mid-latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. J-OFURO latent heat flux in January overestimates at 10°N–20°N and underestimates at 25°N–40°N. Finally, J-OFURO shows a larger oceanic net heat loss at 10°N–20°N and a smaller loss north of 20°N in January. The data of da Silva et al. in July show small net heat loss around 20°S and large gain around 20°N, while the NCEP reanalysis (NRA) data show the opposite. The da Silva et al. zonal wind speed overestimates at low-latitudes in January, while ECMWF wind data seem to underestimate the easterlies. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Spatial variability of the primary production and chlorophyll <Emphasis Type="Italic">a</Emphasis> concentration in the drake passage in the austral spring

The spatial distribution of the primary production (PP) and the chlorophyll a concentration (Chl) were investigated during two research cruises in the Drake Passage area in October–November of 2007 and 2008. The algorithm evaluating the integral PP (PP_int) for the water column in this area was developed based on the data on the surface chlorophyll (Chl_s) and the incident solar irradiance obtained in 2004–2008 in the Atlantic Sector of the Southern Ocean. The results obtained both by the experimental and model approaches suggested that the Polar Front (PF) region of the Drake Passage was characterized by low values of both the PP_int (<100 mg C/m² per day) and Chl_s (0.08–0.20 mg/m³) in October–November. Low values of the Chl_s and relatively high phaeophytine a concentrations indicated the winter succession state of the phytoplankton community in the Antarctic Ocean and the southern Polar Frontal Zone (PFZ). The seasonal warming of the surface water layers and the developing pycnocline resulted in a phytoplankton bloom and a Chl_s concentration of more than 1 mg/m³ in mid-November in this area and the Subantarctic waters.     

Pacific decadal oscillation and European climatic anomalies

By using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets for 1951–2001, we study the characteristics of Pacific cyclones. It is shown that the northeast-southwest direction is predominant in the displacements of cyclones in the North Pacific. We study the variability of the field of surface atmospheric pressure in different phases of the Pacific decadal oscillation characterizing the temperature anomalies on the surface of the ocean in the region bounded by 20 and 60°N. It is shown that the decadal variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation supported by the large-scale anomalies of the Pacific decadal oscillation is the most important cause of natural decadal oscillations in the European region. We study and evaluate the regional response to the Pacific decadal oscillation by using, as an example, the analysis of variations of the discharge of European rivers. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 13–23, July–August, 2007.     

Occurrence patterns of mesopelagic fish larvae in Sagami Bay, central Japan

The species composition, seasonal abundance, and vertical distribution of mesopelagic fish larvae are described based on discrete depth sampling from the surface down to 1000 m depth during four cruises at a fixed sampling station in Sagami Bay. The abundances of total mesopelagic fish larvae in April, July, September, and December were 65.7, 13.6, 118.9, and 17.2 individuals per 10 m² sea surface, respectively. Twenty species or types of mesopelagic fish larvae belonging to 10 families were collected. Diaphus garmani, Lipolagus ochotensis, Diogenichthys atlanticus, Sigmops gracile, and Maurolicus japonicus were the five most abundant larvae and accounted for 43.1, 14.5, 7.4, 6.3, and 5.9% of the total mesopelagic fish larvae, respectively. These five species showed clear seasonal changes in abundance, i.e. L. ochotensis, D. atlanticus, and S. gracile larvae mainly occurred during winter— spring; D. garmani and M. japonicus were collected during summer—autumn. No obvious diel vertical migration was found in these larvae. The larvae of D. garmani and M. japonicus were concentrated in the 25–50 and 50–100 m depth layers, respectively. The transforming stage of L. ochotensis, S. gracile, and D. atlanticus occurred at 400–1000 m depth, while their larvae (<8 mm standard length) occurred in the upper 100 m layer, indicating that metamorphosis of these species takes place in the 400–1000 m layer. Based on the occurrence of mesopelagic fish larvae and oceanographic processes in Sagami Bay, with the exception of D. garmani and M. japonicus, most larvae are considered to originate from the Kuroshio region where their main spawning grounds are formed.     

An improved numerical simulation mode of nonlinear wave with consideration of high order terms

In this paper the 0-1 combined BEM is adopted to subdivide the computational domain boundary,and to discretize the Green’s integral expression based on Laplace equation.The FEM is used to subdivide the wave surface and deduce the surface equation which satisfies the nonlinear boundary conditions on the surface.The equations with potential function and wave surface height as an unknown quantity by application of Taylor expansion approach can be solved by iteration within the time step.In m-time iteration within the computational process of time step(n-1)Δt to nΔt,the results of the previous iteration are taken as the initial value of the two-order unknown terms in the present iteration.Thus,an improved tracking mode of nonlinear wave surface is established,and numerical results of wave tank test indicate that this mode is improved obviously and is more precise than the previous numerical model which ignored the two-order unknown terms of wave surface location and velocity potential function in comparison with the theoretical values.     

Multidisciplinary investigations exploring indicators of gas hydrate occurrence in the Krishna–Godavari Basin offshore, east coast of India

We report some main results of multidisciplinary investigations carried out within the framework of the Indian National Gas Hydrate Program in 2002–2003 in the Krishna–Godavari Basin offshore sector, east coast of India, to explore indicators of likely gas hydrate occurrence suggested by preliminary multi-channel seismic reflection data and estimates of gas hydrate stability zone thickness. Swath bathymetry data reveal new evidence of three distinct geomorphic units representing (1) a delta front incised by several narrow valleys and mass flows, (2) a deep fan in the east and (3) a WNW–ESE-trending sedimentary ridge in the south. Deep-tow digital side-scan sonar, multi-frequency chirp sonar, and sub-bottom profiler records indicate several surface and subsurface gas-escape features with a highly resolved stratification within the upper 50 m sedimentary strata. Multi-channel seismic reflection data show the presence of bottom simulating reflections of continuous to discrete character. Textural analyses of 76 gravity cores indicate that the sediments are mostly silty clay. Geochemical analyses reveal decreasing downcore pore water sulphate (SO₄ ²⁻) concentrations (28.7 to <4 mM), increasing downcore methane (CH₄) concentrations (0–20 nM) and relatively high total organic carbon contents (1–2.5%), and microbial analyses a high abundance of microbes in top core sediments and a low abundance of sulphate-reducing bacteria in bottom core sediments. Methane-derived authigenic carbonates were identified in some cores. Combined with evidence of gas-escape features in association with bottom simulating reflections, the findings strongly suggest that the physicochemical conditions prevailing in the study area are highly conducive to methane generation and gas hydrate occurrence. Deep drilling from aboard the JOIDES Resolution during 2006 has indeed confirmed the presence of gas hydrate in the Krishna–Godavari Basin offshore.     

Long-Term Variations of the Thermohaline and Dynamic Characteristics of the Black Sea According to the Climatic Data on Temperature and Salinity and Their Assimilation in the Model

We compare the thermohaline and dynamic characteristics of the Black Sea reconstructed by using two versions of climatic temperature and salinity fields:old (1903–1982)and new (1903–2003). The fields are reconstructed with the help of continuous assimilation of the climatic temperature and salinity in the model. It is shown that the climatic thermohaline fields constructed with regard for the data of observations for the last 20 yr are characterized by an insignificant elevation of the halocline (pycnocline)in the winter-spring period and the elevation of the upper boundary of the cold intermediate layer in the spring-summer period. The intensity of surface geostrophic currents is greater than the same quantity computed on the basis of the old climatic data for the whole year. The horizontal currents in the sea computed according to the new climatic data are more intense. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 3, pp. 11–30, May–June, 2005.     

Statistical characteristics of cyclones and anticyclones over the Black Sea in the second half of the 20th century

By using the NCEP reanalysis data for 1952–2000, we estimate the parameters of cyclones and anticyclones in the Black-Sea region and evaluate the statistical characteristics of their variability for each season. It is shown that the frequency of cyclones decreases in all seasons (except summer) as a result of the intensification of the North Atlantic Oscillation in the 1960–90s and the displacement of the predominant paths of synoptic disturbances to the north. For anticyclones, we reveal the opposite trend. The parameters of cyclones and anticyclones are characterized by quasiperiodic variations on the subdecadal scale also induced by the North Atlantic Oscillation. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 6, pp. 47–58, November–December, 2007.     

Seasonal variability of geostrophic currents in the Atlantic Ocean according to the altimetry data

The monthly average values of the anomalies of the ocean level (according to the satellite data for 1992–2002) and the annual average dynamic heights (hydrological data) are used to compute the seasonal cycle of geostrophic currents on the surface of the Atlantic Ocean. It is shown that the west and east currents are intensified with a phase difference of several months. At the same time, their latitudinal displacements are quasisynchronous. A delay of the seasonal signal in the east-west direction of about 2–3 months (on the average) is typical of currents in the tropical zone of the Northern Hemisphere. On the contrary, in the South Atlantic, the seasonal signal propagates in the west-east direction and its phase delay can be as large as almost six months. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 3, pp. 60–71, May–June, 2006.