基于国土空间开发格局的城市化地区和其他功能区碳排放现状——黑黔粤案例研究

以主体功能定位为依据的国土空间开发格局为切入点,选择其中的城市化地区（重点/优化开发地区）进行社会经济和温室气体排放特征现状分析。研究认为,不同城市化地区所承载的城市（镇）化任务是十分不同的：优化开发区应以稳定和疏解人口为主,争取尽早达到排放峰值并下降;重点开发区应是承接非城市化地区人口（特别是重点生态功能区）的主要地区。但是这些地区普遍存在发展后劲不足或发展粗放的问题,进一步吸纳经济和人口的能力可能受限。在低碳发展的大背景下,寻找新的增长点和产业低碳化转型是重点开发区承担新型城市（镇）化任务的前提条件。     

有蒸发-风反馈和海-气相互作用的CISK开尔文波——热带季节内振荡机制的进一步研究

将波动－CISK（积云对流加热反馈）、海－气相互作用和蒸发－风反馈都引入一个简单理论模式，研究了他们在驱动热带大气季节内振荡（ISO）中的作用。其结果表明：波动－CISK在减慢激发波的位相速度以接近观测到的热带ISO的移速过程中起主要作用；而蒸发－风反馈的主要作用是使激发波不稳定；海－气相互作用在减慢激发波的移速方面也有一定作用。因此，波动－CISK和蒸发－风反馈可认为是热带ISO的主要动力学机制。本研究还表明，由于蒸发－风反馈和海－气相互作用的影响，激发波是一种频散波，这种频散性可以更好地解释热带大气中ISO的活动特征。     

烟草普通花叶病与气象条件的关系

分析了气象条件对闽西北烟草普通花叶病(TMV)发生发展的影响。分析得出:温度、湿度、降水及日照等气象因子对TMV发生发展均有明显的影响,但影响程度和关键时段不尽相同,影响最大的是湿度和降水,温度次之,日照最小;TMV始发时温度起主要作用,而流行时起主要作用的是湿度和降水。建立了闽西北地区TMV发生程度的中期预测模式,并提出了防治措施。     

甘肃“5·5"黑风暴小波分析

用小波变换理论对１９９３年春季甘肃省河西走廊地区一场特大黑风暴进行了分析。结果表明，小波分析能比较客观地将时间序列中不同时间尺度的振动分离开，使我们能清楚地看到黑风暴中的中尺度扰动。     

Influences of Freshwater from Major Rivers on Global Ocean Circulation and Temperatures in the MIT Ocean General Circulation Model

Responses of global ocean circulation and temperature to freshwater runoff from major rivers were studied by blocking regional runoff in the global ocean general circulation model(OGCM)developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.Runoff into the tropical Atlantic,the western North Pacific,and the Bay of Bengal and northern Arabian Sea were selectively blocked.The blocking of river runoff first resulted in a salinity increase near the river mouths(2 practical salinity units).The saltier and,therefore,denser water was then transported to higher latitudes in the North Atlantic,North Pacific,and southern Indian Ocean by the mean currents.The subsequent density contrasts between northern and southern hemispheric oceans resulted in changes in major ocean currents.These anomalous ocean currents lead to significant temperature changes(1°C-2°C)by the resulting anomalous heat transports.The current and temperature anomalies created by the blocked river runoff propagated from one ocean basin to others via coastal and equatorial Kelvin waves.This study suggests that river runoff may be playing an important role in oceanic salinity,temperature,and circulations;and that partially or fully blocking major rivers to divert freshwater for societal purposes might significantly change ocean salinity,circulations,temperature,and atmospheric climate.Further studies are necessary to assess the role of river runoff in the coupled atmosphere-ocean system.     

Influence of sea surface temperature on the European heat wave of 2003 summer. Part II: a modeling study

The Center for Ocean?CLand?CAtmosphere Studies Atmospheric General Circulation Model is used to investigate the role of global boundary conditions of sea surface temperature (SST) in the establishment and maintenance of the European heat wave of 2003 summer. It is found that the global SST anomalies can explain many major features of the European heat wave during the summer of 2003. A further experiment has investigated the role of SST outside the Mediterranean area. This supplements the results of a previous study where the role of warm Mediterranean SST was analyzed. The results suggest that the SST anomalies had an additional effect of reducing the baroclinicity in the European area reinforcing the blocking circulation and helping to create ideal conditions for the establishment of the heat wave.     

Examples of the role of surface friction in downslope windstorms

Summary Numerical simulations of four mountain wave events over the Colorado Rockies were carried out with a two-dimensional hydrostatic model including a turbulent mixing parameterization in order to investigate the effect of surface friction. Surface friction was found to play a major role in modulating and even in some cases preventing the wave amplification mechanism from producing severe downslope windstorms.With 8 Figures     

Monitoring and reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural,forestry and other human activities

Agriculture and forestry are significant sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. A holistic systems approach to estimating and reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural, forestry and other systems requires that the major inputs, components and outputs of the production system are defined. Fluxes of greenhouse gases in natural systems may be estimated by mathematical modelling of the major biological processes and activities. Field and laboratory experiments and information from satellites provide the raw data on which such models are based. Such an approach can have a significant role in guiding key decision makers and policy analysts. We conclude that management strategies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and forestry are likely to be strategies that will also contribute to ecologically sustainable development.     

Effect of basic state on seasonal variation of convectively coupled Rossby wave

Convectively coupled equatorial Rossby (ER) waves display maximum varability over the northern hemisphere during boreal summer and over the southern hemisphere during boreal winter. It suggests that the seasonal variation of ER waves is significantly affected by the annual cycle of basic state. However, which specific environmental factor plays a determining role remains obscure. This study investigates the background influence on the seasonal variation of ER wave by employing an intermediate anomaly atmospheric model. By prescribing boreal summer/winter seasonal mean state as the model’s basic state, the authors found that the model is able to simulate the trapping of the ER wave purtrubation over the northern/southern hemisphere as in observation. Further sensitivity experiments suggest that the moisture distribution plays a major role in modulating the ER wave structure while the mosoonal flows play a minor role.     

气象资料加工产品——格点报的应用及未来发展

介绍了我国数值预报格点资料及其在日常天气预报业务中的应用。简要说明了格点报资料的使用价值和分发形式的优点。指出随着数值天气预报和计算机技术的发展,格点资料对于天气预报业务的客观化和自动化,将越来越表现出重要作用。     

我国干旱地区大降水天气过程水汽来源

干旱地区一般远离海洋，大降水天气过程的水汽供应方式往往有其特色。本文提出了我国干旱地区水汽供应方式的几种主要天气形势类型和特点，讨论了先兆过程的作用，南疆低层东风对降水的作用，中层西南气流对水汽的输送，以及本地区内循环水份的重要性。通过以上一些讨论对我国干旱地区大降水的水汽来源和供应方式给出概括的描述。     

中央气象台台风预报业务的发展及思考

随着数值预报技术和综合探测体系的不断进步和完善,近十几年来中央气象台的台风业务预报取得了较显著的进展,特别是台风路径业务预报水平进展显著,基本达到了国际先进水平,但是在台风强度和风雨影响的预报及台风风险评估方面进展相对较慢。本文从我国台风灾害影响的严重性和中央气象台台风预报的重要性、中央气象台台风预报的发展历程、中央气象台台风预报员的作用、台风业务中重大科学问题的提出和解决途径、重大台风科研项目对中央气象台台风业务的促进和指导等几方面进行了回顾和分析,并提出了未来提高台风业务预报能力的有效途径。     

两次高原切变线诱发低涡活动的个例分析

使用NCEP/NCAR再分析格点资料,对2007年7月4～6日切变线在高原上发展,并诱发两次高原低涡造成高原中部大雨的活动过程进行了诊断分析。通过涡度收支等物理量计算,结果表明,垂直输送项和水平辐合辐散项对两次高原低涡的发展增强都起主要作用,在低涡不同发展阶段,二者贡献各有不同;在低涡二消亡阶段,水平平流项贡献增大。视热源和视水汽汇分析表明,这次降水过程以对流性降水为主,垂直运动的负值中心与视热源、视水汽汇中心对应,变化趋势基本一致,表明在降水过程大气加热是与大气上升运动密切相关,对流层中层的加热引起对流层低层抽吸作用会促进高原涡的发展,大气热源主要是降水过程的凝结潜热释放,水汽凝结起决定性作用。     

太平洋年代际振荡的研究进展

作者以太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)现象为重点,系统地回顾了太平洋年代际变率观测、模拟和理论研究的国内外进展.在PDO时空结构方面,总结了PDO的基本观测事实,在PDO成因方面,从海洋大气相互作用观点出发比较了三类PDO形成机制的理论或假说,讨论了现有理论或假说中存在的若干问题,并提出了未来研究的方向和需要解决的关键科学问题.作者也简要介绍了东亚及中国气候年代际变化的特征及其和太平洋海表温度异常的联系,并讨论了东亚大气环流异常在PDO形成中的可能作用.     

复杂地形上三维局地环流的模拟研究

利用复杂地形上的三维雾模式研究了重庆市冬季局地环流的形成、演变过程及其主要特征。结果表明，重庆市冬季夜间四周山区有下坡冷空气向市中区汇集，中午前后逐渐向谷风环流转变。这种局地环流结构对重庆雾的生消起着重要作用。并就成雾、山脉、初始大气稳定度等因子对局地环流的影响进行了数值试验。     

Large-scale moisture exchange in the tropical Indian and Pacific oceans in El Niño/Southern Oscillation years

Moisture exchange is studied via composites for seven dry years and five wet years over India (with negative and positive summer precipitation anomalies of 10% above normal), during which a warm or a cold El Niño/Southern Oscillation phase developed in the succeeding fall and winter months. Analysis is based on the 1950–1999 monthly mean NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Specific features of the formation of the tropospheric integral moisture content anomalies, a major heat source, in the tropical Indian and Pacific oceans in ENSO years are shown. The zonal and meridional moisture transport and the moisture flux convergence are shown to play an important role in this process. Also, the important role of large-scale moisture exchange in a general chain of the tropical climate system anomalies in ENSO years is demonstrated.     

A GCM-based assessment of the global moisture budget and the role of land-surface moisture reservoirs in processing precipitation

The performance of the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) when coupled to the CCCma third generation general circulation model is evaluated in an AMIP II simulation. Our primary aim is to understand how CLASS processes moisture and to compare model estimates of moisture budget components with observations. The modelled mean annual precipitation and runoff, and their latitudinal structures, compare well with observations although some discrepancies remain in the simulation of regional values of these quantities. The amplitude and phase of the first harmonic of the precipitation annual cycle also compares well with observations although less well over regions of sparse precipitation and/or high topography. In the model, the canopy plays a major role in processing moisture at the land surface indicating the importance of vegetation in climate. The canopy intercepts a large fraction of the precipitation and provides the medium for returning much moisture back to the atmosphere as evapotranspiration. Though important locally, the snow moisture reservoir plays a relatively minor role in the global moisture budget. It acts primarily as a storage and delay mechanism with winter precipitation released to the ground reservoir on melting. The ground moisture reservoir also plays a major role and processes a similar amount of moisture as the canopy, although in a different manner. The globally averaged model runoff compares well with observation-based estimates, although the model partitioning into surface runoff and drainage does not agree particularly well with the single available observation-based estimate. How moisture is processed at the land surface serves as a basis for model intercomparison and for understanding the modelled moisture budget and its variation and changes with climate change. Only the most basic quantities (precipitation, runoff, and partitioning of runoff into surface runoff and drainage) may be compared with observation-based estimates, however, and the establishment of more complete moisture budget remains an important need.     

地面气象观测业务集成平台

详细介绍了自主开发的"气象站观测业务集成平台"。该平台是台站普遍使用的测报业务软件基础上的一个扩展平台软件,主要实现自动气象观测站的运行监控、通信链路监控、数据质量检查、重要天气提示、自动报警、业务工作流程提示、自动排班、质量报表生成、设备管理、通信质量统计等功能。综合运用3G移动通信和信息化技术,与现行的地面气象观测业务软件相配套,对于提高测报业务质量、减轻测报人员的工作强度、实现气象探测业务自动化发挥了重要作用。     

Individual and combined impacts of ENSO and East Asian winter monsoon on the South China Sea cold tongue intensity

A region of low sea surface temperature (SST) extends southward in the central part of southern South China Sea during boreal winter, which is called the South China Sea cold tongue (SCS CT). The present study investigates the factors of interannual variation of SST in the SCS CT region and explores the individual and combined impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) on the SCS CT intensity. During years with ENSO alone or with co-existing ENSO and anomalous EAWM, shortwave radiation and ocean horizontal advection play major roles in the interannual variation of the SCS CT intensity. Ocean advection contributes largely to the SST change in the region southeast of Vietnam. In strong CT years with anomalous EAWM alone, surface wind-related latent heat flux has a major role and shortwave radiation is secondary to the EAWM-induced change of the SCS CT intensity, whereas the role of ocean horizontal advection is relatively small. The above differences in the roles of ocean advection and latent heat flux are associated with the distribution of low level wind anomalies. In anomalous CT years with ENSO, low level anomalous cyclone/anticyclone-related wind speed change leads to latent heat flux anomalies with effects opposite to shortwave radiation. In strong CT years with anomalous EAWM alone, surface wind-related latent heat flux anomalies are large as anomalous winds are aligned with climatological winds.

     

Boundary‐layer influence on the development of a mesoscale rainstorm

Abstract

A major convective rainstorm slowly developed in the largely barotropic warm sector of an open‐wave cyclone. Meso‐beta‐scale boundary‐layer conditions played a significant role in the location of storm development, and provided favourable thermodynamic gradients and persistently convergent flow in preferred areas. Minimal storm movement and a strong association between the surface divergence field and cloud evolution permitted the estimation of that fraction of the moisture fed into the storm from the boundary layer that was returned to the ground as rain.