把握形势,努力推动"十二五"时期龙江气象事业科学发展

黑龙江省是受气象灾害影响最严重的省份之一,最大限度地保护人民群众生命财产安全,对气象防灾减灾提出了更高要求。省委建设＂八大经济区＂、实施＂十大工程＂战略部署,对公共气象服务提出了更多需求。中央领导对黑龙江省粮食稳定增产寄予厚望,但近些年极端气候事件增多,粮食增产的基础还很不牢     

深入学习贯彻十七大精神 努力开创吉林气象事业新局面

2008年全省气象局长会议,是在举国上下深入学习贯彻党的十七大精神、全省气象事业快速发展的关键阶段召开的一次重要会议。会议的主要任务是：深入学习贯彻党的十七大、2008年全国气象局长会议、省人大十一届一次会议和全省农村工作会议精神,全面总结党的十六大以来吉林省气象事业发展的成绩和经验,进一步明确今后改革发展的目标和任务,部署2008年重点工作。     

蒋伯仁局长在山东省气象部门"文明系统"命名大会上的讲话

各位领导、各位来宾、同志们 :今天是山东省气象部门大喜庆的日子 ,中国气象局和山东省文明委联合为我省气象部门举行“文明系统”命名授牌仪式 ,这是全省气象部门文明创建活动取得的又一新成果 ,也是我们气象部门文明创建再上新台阶的起点。我省气象部门被上级授予“文明系统”称号 ,是中国气象局和全省各级党委、政府、文明委的正确领导和大力关心指导的结果 ,是省直兄弟厅局的大力支持和帮助的结果 ,也是全省气象干部职工的艰苦努力和拼搏的结果。借此机会 ,我代表全省气象部门向各级领导表示衷心地感谢 !同时也代表省局党组向辛勤工作的…     

积极进取 坚定信心 努力推进全省气象事业科学发展

这次全省气象局长会议,是在2008年全省气象工作取得显著成绩,深入开展学习实践科学发展观活动进入重要阶段的形势下召开的,会议的主要任务是:以党的十七大、十七届三中全会精神为指导,认真贯彻全国气象局长会议精神和省委、省政府的工作部署,深入贯彻落实科学发展观,总结2008年全省气象工作,部署2009年重点工作,全面推动气象事业科学发展.     

在全省气象局长会议上的讲话

刚刚过去的2008年,是全省深入贯彻落实党的十七大精神,以科学发展观为指导,全面加快推进建设小康社会发展的重要一年.在省委、省政府的正确领导下,在全省广大干部、人民群众的共同努力下,面对全球性经济衰退的不利影响,我省经济保持了快速、健康的发展势头.     

气象部门形象识别系统的引入和思考

气象文化建设是一项复杂的系统工程。2009年起,陕西省气象局在全省气象部门组织实施＂文化助推行动＂,此举促使陕西省气象事业健康蓬勃发展,也使各级气象部门在工作中取得好的成绩。     

贵州境内冰雹发生源地初探

利用2003—2005年春季(3—5月),贵阳多普勒雷达回波资料和全省84个气象台站及500多个防雹作业点冰雹资料,对贵州西部新生雷达回波与全省大范围降雹天气的关系进行了统计分析,得出:在全省大范围降雹天气发生前,贵州西部某地上空均可观测到新生雷达回波生成、发展、增强为回波带的过程,而回波带强中心的东移是导致全省大范围降雹的直接原因,据此结果初’步认为:新生雷达回波在贵州西部有5个相对集中发生地,极可能就是我省冰雹的发生源地。     

坚定信心真抓实干 努力开创青海气象事业科学发展新局面（摘要）

一、2008年全省气象工作回顾 2008年是全面贯彻落实党的十七大精神的开局之年,是纪念改革开放30周年的奋进之年,也是改革发展进程中极不平凡的一年。国际形势发生新的复杂变化,国内大事要事难事多,改革发展任务繁重艰巨,压力挑战非同寻常。全省气象部门在中国气象局和省委、省政府的坚强领导下,高举中国特色社会主义伟大旗帜,以邓小平理论和“三个代表”重要思想为指导,深入贯彻落实科学发展观,认真贯彻党的十七大精神,全面落实省委十一届五次全会和全国气象局长会议精神,全继续解放思想,坚持改革开放,积极应对挑战,主动抢抓机遇,     

邵桂芳副省长在山东省气象部门"文明系统"命名大会上的讲话

同志们 :今天 ,中国气象局和山东省文明委联合举行山东省气象部门“文明系统”命名表彰大会 ,这是全省精神文明建设工作中的一件大事。在此 ,我受李春亭省长、吴爱英副书记委托 ,向全省广大气象职工表示热烈的祝贺 !向专程出席大会的中国气象局副局长刘英金同志表示热烈的欢迎 !近几年来 ,全省气象系统在中国气象局和省委、省政府的领导下 ,高举邓小平理论伟大旗帜 ,认真贯彻党的十五大精神 ,坚持“强化气象服务 ,造福山东人民”的宗旨 ,解放思想 ,改革创新 ,知难而进 ,扎实工作 ,两个文明建设取得了显著成绩 ,为全省经济社会发展做出了重大…     

深入学习贯彻十七大精神努力开创黑龙江省气象事业新局面

这次全省气象局长会议,是在我国气象事业发展进入新阶段召开的一次重要会议。会议的主要任务是以党的十七大精神为指导,深入贯彻全国气象局长会议精神和省委、省政府的部署,总结2007年工作,进一步明确今后改革发展的目标和任务,部署2008年重点工作。     

加强业务管理提高测报质量

我局从1999～2003年,测报工作连续4年未出现错情,在此期间共有1个250个班,9个百班无错通过上级业务部门验收.在仪器保管、使用、维护上符合要求,对外报送的各种表、簿都能做好出门合格.     

On the forecast of the onset and end of the convective season in the Amazon

Summary ?Some features of the climate system that can be considered predictors of the onset and end of the convective season over the Amazon were identified using one-month lag correlations and field composites. The fields analyzed were sea surface temperature (SST), outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), vertical velocity and upper tropospheric winds. Warm (cold) anomalies in the SST in the tropical North Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea tend to be associated with delayed (early) onsets. Likewise, there is a tendency towards a delayed (early) end of the convective season with cold (warm) anomalies in these ocean regions. In addition, the SST in the cold tongue region of the equatorial Pacific is negatively, though weakly correlated with the onset date. The signal of this SST is more evident in the case of the end date, which is earlier with respect to its mean date in most of El Ni?o cases. The convective activity intensity itself conditions the onset and the end of the convective season, as it is evidenced by the behavior of the OLR and the vertical velocity fields. The more (less) intense the convective activity over South America during the preceding month, the earlier the onset and the later the end of the convective season on the Amazon region. The prediction of the onset and end dates of the convective season in the Amazon region was explored using a simple multiple regression technique based on the variables that have shown precursor signals with respect to these dates. The correlation coefficient between the predicted and the observed onset date is 0.81, and in the case of the end date, it is 0.76. The skill to predict early, delayed and normal categories was high, since in more than two thirds of the cases the category was successfully predicted, and there were no predictions of categories opposed to those observed. Received July 23, 2001; revised February 22, 2002; accepted April 26, 2002     

Comparing the theoretical versions of the Beaufort scale, the T-Scale and the Fujita scale

2005 is the bicentenary of the Beaufort Scale and its wind-speed codes: the marine version in 1805 and the land version later. In the 1920s when anemometers had come into general use, the Beaufort Scale was quantified by a formula based on experiment. In the early 1970s two tornado wind-speed scales were proposed: (1) an International T-Scale based on the Beaufort Scale; and (2) Fujita's damage scale developed for North America. The International Beaufort Scale and the T-Scale share a common root in having an integral theoretical relationship with an established scientific basis, whereas Fujita's Scale introduces criteria that make its intensities non-integral with Beaufort. Forces on the T-Scale, where T stands for Tornado force, span the range 0 to 10 which is highly useful world wide. The shorter range of Fujita's Scale (0 to 5) is acceptable for American use but less convenient elsewhere. To illustrate the simplicity of the decimal T-Scale, mean hurricane wind speed of Beaufort 12 is T2 on the T-Scale but F1.121 on the F-Scale; while a tornado wind speed of T9 (= B26) becomes F4.761. However, the three wind scales can be uni-fied by either making F-Scale numbers exactly half the magnitude of T-Scale numbers [i.e. F′half = T / 2 = (B / 4) − 4] or by doubling the numbers of this revised version to give integral equivalence with the T-Scale. The result is a decimal formula F′double = T = (B / 2) − 4 named the TF-Scale where TF stands for Tornado Force. This harmonious 10-digit scale has all the criteria needed for world-wide practical effectiveness.     

准两年振荡对大气中微量气体分布的影响

NCAR的包含化学、辐射、动力相互作用的两维模式（SOCRATES）移植回国后进行了初步的模拟试验,用以研究某些对环境问题重要的微量气体的化学、辐射、动力传输过程。在不考虑极地平流层云和气溶胶表面非均相化学等情况下,模式积分多年,计算结果稳定,模拟的风场、温度场显示出正常的季节变化,模拟的微量气体分布与卫星实测资料对照,结果也比较一致。为了探讨热带平流层风场的准两年周期振荡（QBO）对平流层微量气体分布的影响,我们做了QBO强迫的数值试验,即在模式中加入QBO强迫,并与不考虑QBO强迫的模拟结果对比。结果表明,QBO与其相关的次级环流所引起动力输送的变化,使平流层微量气体分布发生变化。     

Quantifying the uncertainty of the annular mode time scale and the role of the stratosphere

The impact of high resolution modern vegetation cover on the West African climate is examined using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model implementing the NCAR Community Land Model. Two high resolution 25 km long-term simulations driven by the output from a coarser 50-km resolution simulation are performed for the period 1998–2010. One high resolution simulation uses an earlier and coarser-resolution version of plant functional type distribution and leaf area index, while the other uses a more recent, higher-quality, and finer-resolution version of the data. The results indicate that the new land cover distribution substantially alters the distribution of temperature with warming in Central Nigeria, northern Gulf of Guinea and part of the Sahel due to the replacement of C4 grass with corn; and cooling along the coastlines of the Gulf of Guinea and in Central Africa due to the replacement of C4 grass with tropical broadleaf evergreen trees. Changes in latent heat flux appear to be largely responsible for these temperature changes with a net decrease (increase) in regions of warming (cooling). The improved land cover distribution also results in a wetter monsoon season. The presence of corn tends to favor larger precipitation amounts via more intense events, while the presence of tropical broadleaf evergreen trees tends to favor the occurrence of both more intense and more frequent events. The wetter conditions appear to be sustained via (1) an enhanced soil moisture feedback; and (2) elevated moisture transport due to increased low-level convergence in regions south of 10N where the most substantial land cover differences are present. Overall the changes induced by the improved vegetation cover improve, to some extent, the performance of the high resolution regional climate model in simulating the main West African summer monsoon features.     

Analysis of the Characteristics of the Low-level Jets in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River during the Mei-yu Season

Here, we analyze the characteristics and the formation mechanisms of low-level jets(LLJs) in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River during the 2010 mei-yu season using Wuhan station radiosonde data and the fifth generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5) reanalysis dataset. Our results show that the vertical structure of LLJs is characterized by a predominance of boundary layer jets(BLJs) concentrated at heights of 900–1200 m.The BLJs occur most frequently at 230...     

由中国历史气候记录对季风导致唐朝灭亡说的质疑

2007年1月4日杂志发表了Yancheva等10人的题为"Influence of the intertropical convergence zone on the East-Asian monsoon"(热带辐合带对东亚季风的影响)的论文[1],这是德国波兹坦地学研究中心气候动力与沉积学科的主管豪格(G.H.Haug)率领的科研小组的一项成果,认为是季风的变化引起的长期干旱导致了唐朝的灭亡.     

流场配置及地形对西南低涡形成的动力作用

本文采用定常二层模式讨论较小地形及高、低层流场配置对西南低涡形成的动力作用。指出了西南低涡的形成是与盆地、河谷以及其上气流分层有关的一种定常态.在上、下为西风分层时期,低层的浅薄暖湿西风有利于西南低涡的形成.在上、下为东、西风分层时期,上层浅薄东风亦有利于西南低涡的形成.小型的凸起山脉对西南低涡的形成没有作用.