新形势下基层气象台如何做好公共气象服务

以山东省五莲县气象台为例,介绍当前县级气象机构综合改革试点单位公共气象服务的现状,分析了县级气象台公共气象服务在新时期的需求,提出基层公共气象服务的发展思路。     

县级公共气象服务系统建设与应用

针对影响县级公共气象服务的气象资料管理与分析应用能力、精细化预报、专业气象服务技术支撑以及气象信息发布等关键环节,结合县级公共气象服务实际需求,着力加强公共气象服务能力建设,建成了＂施秉县公共气象服务系统＂,实现了＂业务系统集约化、数据查询便捷化、产品制作智能化、一键发布自动化＂,并应用于公共气象服务实践。     

青南牧区县级公共气象服务工作的思考——以称多县为例

气象服务是气象部门的立业之本,县级气象部门是气象服务最前沿的阵地。本文总结了近年来青南牧区称多县开展公共气象服务的做法和经验,分析了存在的问题,并对今后开展公共气象服务工作进行了探讨。以期对青南牧区县级气象部门做精做细公共气象服务有所借鉴和帮助。     

针对贵州省县级公共气象服务系统集约化建设的研究和思考

贵州省气象局自2014年起在全省县、区级气象部门部署了公共气象服务系统,该系统上线后对县级公共气象服务发挥了重要作用,随着云计算、大数据技术的发展,业务系统的集约化程度逐步提高,现有的县级公共气象服务系统已不能满足用户大量增长的服务需求,该文通过对该系统在县级部署和应用情况的分析,从技术和管理的角度,深入探讨系统在集约化方面存在的问题和不足,并提出了相关改进措施,对县级公共气象服务建设具有一定参考价值。     

提升县级公共气象服务能力的几点思考

以凌云开展公共气象服务的具体实践为例,分析了当地公共气象服务中的现状及遇到的问题,探讨如何建立符合当前实际的基层公共气象服务体系,为提升县级公共气象服务能力提供参考。     

县级气象微信公众服务平台的开发与设计—以“寻甸气象”为例

为了拓展县级气象部门服务公众渠道,提升气象服务质量和时效,利用C#、Web services、GIS等技术,在微信上开发与设计县级气象微信公众服务平台。以“寻甸气象”的开发与设计为例,阐述了该平台的系统结构和功能;使用图片服务器分离技术、缓存技术、库表散列技术可确保用户便捷、快速访问该平台,及时为用户提供优质高效的气象服务。该平台解决了县级气象服务最后“一公里”的难题,大力提升了县级气象部门在公共气象服务领域的能力。     

青海省气象服务现状与需求调查分析

以问卷调查方式,对全省县级以上气象局(站)气象服务现状与需求进行调查,全面了解和掌握全省公共气象服务业务发展现状与需求,对于探讨和发现基层气象服务中存在的问题,提高气象防灾减灾和服务的针对性,形成上下互动、资源共享、统一协调的气象服务业务体系,提高气象服务的效率和效益具有重要意义。     

河南省县级综合气象业务平台的建设及应用

河南省气象局组织开发的以标准化、规范化、统一数据环境和信息网络为支撑,集气象综合观测、气象预警预报、公共气象服务、农业气象服务、一键式发布和业务管理为一体的"河南省县级综合气象业务平台",为县级综合气象业务的开展提供集约高效的工作平台,为加快基层气象业务现代化建设、全面推进县级气象机构综合改革提供坚实的支撑。平台采用集约化的数据环境和B/S架构,利用跨平台的Java语言开发,采用开源框架结构设计,平台的运维在省级信息中心,减轻了基层业务人员的运维工作量。     

省级公共气象服务系统整体设计与实现

针对省级公共气象服务系统业务需求,结合四川省现有气象服务产品和信息网络实际,采用先进网络服务技术,提出了省级公共气象服务系统的整体架构设计,包括省—市—县级基础服务产品的集成、特色产品的生产、服务对象的分类等,旨在通过在四川省公共气象服务系统的建设与应用实践,将此设计提升为一种通用模型向全国推广,提供业界借鉴与参考。该系统于2013年6月正式为用户提供服务,应用实践表明,该系统高效、稳定可靠、资源利用率高、实用性强。目前该气象服务系统模式已经在云南推广。     

县级CMACast系统应用及常见故障分析解决

为了保障县市局气象资料的正常接收,提升气象监测、公共气象服务和气象资源利用能力,使县级气象部门在气象资料的信息量、时效性和可靠性方面有大的提高。文章介绍了县局CMACast系统结构,县级CMACast系统应用,资料推送以及软硬件工作环境,并对系统的常见故障进行了分析,同时提出了解决办法。     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

汉江流域极端水文事件时空分布特征

利用1960-2012年汉江流域15个气象站点的日降雨资料和3个水文站同时期日径流资料,分析了9个极端降雨指数的空间分布规律,运用广义极值分布（GEV）、Gamma分布两种极值统计模型对各站点的最大1 d降雨、最大3 d降雨极值样本进行拟合,遴选描述降雨极值分布规律最优概率模型,进而推算给定重现期下的降雨设计值,并分析其空间分布规律;选用Gumbel、Clayton和Frank这3种Copula函数建立降雨-洪量极值联合分布模型,优选最合适的Copula函数,由此计算给定重现期下的洪量设计值。结果表明：GEV分布模型能更好地模拟降雨极值序列,不同重现期下的降雨极值在空间上均呈西低东高的特征;3种Copula函数中,Frank Copula函数能更好地拟合降雨-洪量相关关系,由此推求的洪量设计值大于单变量拟合设计值。     

宁波地区海-陆下垫面差异对雷暴过程影响的数值模拟

利用耦合Noah陆面过程的WRF模式对2009年6月5日傍晚发生在宁波地区的一次雷暴过程进行数值模拟,通过改变下垫面覆盖类型的敏感性试验,探讨了海洋和陆地下垫面对雷暴过程的影响。结果表明,WRF模式能够较合理地模拟出雷暴的发生、发展过程。雷暴发生前期,由于海-陆强烈的热力差异,海风特征明显,海风引起的抬升运动触发了雷暴,海风形成的强辐合区对应雷暴过程累积降水量的大值区。当研究区域全部被替换成陆地后,地表的粗糙度增大,在研究区域东部由于摩擦辐合加强,产生了强烈的上升运动,多个发展旺盛的对流单体在上升运动区生成,使雷暴产生的降水区域东扩、降水量增大、雷暴维持时间延长。当研究区域所有陆地被替换成水体后,白天地表通量减小,大气边界层中湍流运动减弱,边界层高度降低,大气层结变得稳定,不利于对流发展。     

An assessment of the predictability of the East Asian Subtropical Westerly Jet based on TIGGE data

The predictability of the position, spatial coverage and intensity of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet(EASWJ) in the summers of 2010 to 2012 was examined for ensemble prediction systems(EPSs) from four representative TIGGE centers,including the ECMWF, the NCEP, the CMA, and the JMA. Results showed that each EPS predicted all EASWJ properties well, while the levels of skill of all EPSs declined as the lead time extended. Overall, improvements from the control to the ensemble mean forecasts for predicting the EASWJ were apparent. For the deterministic forecasts of all EPSs, the prediction of the average axis was better than the prediction of the spatial coverage and intensity of the EASWJ. ECMWF performed best, with a lead of approximately 0.5–1 day in predictability over the second-best EPS for all EASWJ properties throughout the forecast range. For probabilistic forecasts, differences in skills among the different EPSs were more evident in the earlier part of the forecast for the EASWJ axis and spatial coverage, while they departed obviously throughout the forecast range for the intensity. ECMWF led JMA by about 0.5–1 day for the EASWJ axis, and by about 1–2 days for the spatial coverage and intensity at almost all lead times. The largest lead of ECMWF over the relatively worse EPSs, such as NCEP and CMA, was approximately 3–4 days for all EASWJ properties. In summary, ECMWF showed the highest level of skill for predicting the EASWJ, followed by JMA.     

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal (BoB) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the BoB are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the BoB storm activity, and the “bimodal period” of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the “bimodal pattern” storm activity in the BoB. The analysis on sea surface temperature (SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the BoB area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones (TCs). However, the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a “two-peak” storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index (GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the BoB storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

淮河流域水文极值预测模型研究

为探索气候变化影响下水文极值的非平稳性和预测方法,建立了水文极值非平稳广义极值（GEV）分布的统计预测模型。利用1952-2010年淮河上游流域累计面雨量和流量年最大值资料、同期500 hPa环流特征量资料以及17个CMIP5模式对环流特征量的模拟结果,筛选出对水文极值影响显著的年平均北半球极涡强度指数作为GEV分布参数的预测因子。分析了在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下2006-2050年淮河上游流域水文极值对气候变化的响应。结果表明,10年以下与10年以上重现期的水文极值在非平稳过程中呈现前者下降而后者上升的相反变化趋势;多模型预测的集合平均在未来情景中均呈现上升趋势,情景排放量越大增幅越大,重现期越长增幅也越大。与极值的常态相比,极值的极端态更易受气候变化影响。     

Dominant cloud microphysical processes of a torrential rainfall event in Sichuan,China

High-resolution numerical simulation data of a rainstorm triggering debris flow in Sichuan Province of China simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model were used to study the dominant cloud microphysical processes of the torrential rainfall. The results showed that: (1) In the strong precipitation period, particle sizes of all hydrometeors increased, and mean-mass diameters of graupel increased the most significantly, as compared with those in the weak precipitation period; (2) The terminal velocity of raindrops was the strongest among all hydrometeors, followed by graupel’s, which was much smaller than that of raindrops. Differences between various hydrometeors’ terminal velocities in the strong precipitation period were larger than those in the weak precipitation period, which favored relative motion, collection interaction and transformation between the particles. Absolute terminal velocity values of raindrops and graupel were significantly greater than those of air upward velocity, and the stronger the precipitation was, the greater the differences between them were; (3) The orders of magnitudes of the various hydrometeors’ sources and sinks in the strong precipitation period were larger than those in the weak precipitation period, causing a difference in the intensity of precipitation. Water vapor, cloud water, raindrops, graupel and their exchange processes played a major role in the production of the torrential rainfall, and there were two main processes via which raindrops were generated: abundant water vapor condensed into cloud water and, on the one hand, accretion of cloud water by rain water formed rain water, while on the other hand, accretion of cloud water by graupel formed graupel, and then the melting of graupel formed rain water.