Relationship between atmospheric conditions at Dhaka, Bangladesh, and rainfall at Cherrapunjee, India

To improve flood forecasting, the understanding of the atmospheric conditions associated with severe rainfall is crucial. We analysed the atmospheric conditions at Dhaka, Bangladesh, using upper-air soundings. We then compared these conditions with daily rainfall variations at Cherrapunjee, India, which is a main source of floodwater to Bangladesh, and a representative sample of exceptionally heavy rainfall events. The analysis focussed on June and July 2004. June and July are the heaviest rainfall months of the year at Cherrapunjee. July 2004 had the fourth-heaviest monthly rainfall of the past 31 years, and severe floods occurred in Bangladesh. Active rainfall periods at Cherrapunjee corresponded to “breaks” in the Indian monsoon. The monsoon trough was located over the Himalayan foothills, and strong westerly winds dominated up to 7 km at Dhaka. Near-surface wind below 1 km had southerly components, and the wind profile had an Ekman spiral structure. The results suggest that rainfall at Cherrapunjee strongly depends on the near-surface wind speed and wind direction at Dhaka. Lifting of the near-surface southerly airflow by the Meghalaya Plateau is considered to be the main contributor to severe rainfall at Cherrapunjee. High convective available potential energy (CAPE) also contributes to intense rainfall.     

On the impacts of ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole events on sub-regional Indian summer monsoon rainfall

The relative impacts of the ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events on Indian summer (June–September) monsoon rainfall at sub-regional scales have been examined in this study. GISST datasets from 1958 to 1998, along with Willmott and Matsuura gridded rainfall data, all India summer monsoon rainfall data, and homogeneous and sub-regional Indian rainfall datasets were used. The spatial distribution of partial correlations between the IOD and summer rainfall over India indicates a significant impact on rainfall along the monsoon trough regions, parts of the southwest coastal regions of India, and also over Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran. ENSO events have a wider impact, although opposite in nature over the monsoon trough region to that of IOD events. The ENSO (IOD) index is negatively (positively) correlated (significant at the 95% confidence level from a two-tailed Student t-test) with summer monsoon rainfall over seven (four) of the eight homogeneous rainfall zones of India. During summer, ENSO events also cause drought over northern Sri Lanka, whereas the IOD events cause surplus rainfall in its south. On monthly scales, the ENSO and IOD events have significant impacts on many parts of India. In general, the magnitude of ENSO-related correlations is greater than those related to the IOD. The monthly-stratified IOD variability during each of the months from July to September has a significant impact on Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability over different parts of India, confirming that strong IOD events indeed affect the Indian summer monsoon.

南亚季风降水的双极振荡*

文章利用气象资料揭示在印度半岛南部和北部,南亚季风降水变化在10年尺度以上呈翘翘板变化形式;利用更长的季风降水资料,即300年的喜马拉雅山达索普冰芯降水记录和印度半岛南部石笋降水记录,发现印度南部和喜马拉雅山季风降水呈双极振荡行为。自1700年以来,喜马拉雅山,即印度北部(或印度半岛南部)季风降水经历了1700~1764年期间的减小(或增加)趋势,1764~1876年期间的增大(或减小)趋势,1876~2000年期间的减小(或增加)趋势。同时,发现印度半岛南部的季风降水同北半球温度变化具有相同的变化特征,而喜马拉雅山季风降水同北半球温度变化具有相反的变化特征。南亚季风降水的这种南北翘翘板变化形式,与跨赤道气流有密切的联系。     

Spatial monsoon variability with respect to NAO and SO

In this paper, the simultaneous effect of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Southern Oscillation (SO) on monsoon rainfall over different homogeneous regions/subdivisions of India is studied. The simultaneous effect of both NAO and SO on Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is more important than their individual impact because both the oscillations exist simultaneously throughout the year. To represent the simultaneous impact of NAO and SO, an index called effective strength index (ESI) has been defined on the basis of monthly NAO and SO indices. The variation in the tendency of ESI from January through April has been analyzed and reveals that when this tendency is decreasing, then the ESI value throughout the monsoon season (June–September) of the year remains negative andvice versa. This study further suggests that during the negative phase of ESI tendency, almost all subdivisions of India show above-normal rainfall andvice versa. The correlation analysis indicates that the ESI-tendency is showing an inverse and statistically significant relationship with rainfall over 14 subdivisions of India. Area wise, about 50% of the total area of India shows statistically significant association. Moreover, the ESI-tendency shows a significant relationship with rainfall over north west India, west central India, central north east India, peninsular India and India as a whole. Thus, ESI-tendency can be used as a precursor for the prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall on a smaller spatial scale.     

Some characteristics of very heavy rainfall over Orissa during summer monsoon season

Orissa is one of the most flood prone states of India. The floods in Orissa mostly occur during monsoon season due to very heavy rainfall caused by synoptic scale monsoon disturbances. Hence a study is undertaken to find out the characteristic features of very heavy rainfall (24 hours rainfall ≥125 mm) over Orissa during summer monsoon season (June–September) by analysing 20 years (1980–1999) daily rainfall data of different stations in Orissa. The principal objective of this study is to find out the role of synoptic scale monsoon disturbances in spatial and temporal variability of very heavy rainfall over Orissa. Most of the very heavy rainfall events occur in July and August. The region, extending from central part of coastal Orissa in the southeast towards Sambalpur district in the northwest, experiences higher frequency and higher intensity of very heavy rainfall with less interannual variability. It is due to the fact that most of the causative synoptic disturbances like low pressure systems (LPS) develop over northwest (NW) Bay of Bengal with minimum interannual variation and the monsoon trough extends in west-northwesterly direction from the centre of the system. The very heavy rainfall occurs more frequently with less interannual variability on the western side of Eastern Ghat during all the months and the season except September. It occurs more frequently with less interannual variability on the eastern side of Eastern Ghat during September. The NW Bay followed by Gangetic West Bengal/Orissa is the most favourable region of LPS to cause very heavy rainfall over different parts of Orissa except eastern side of Eastern Ghat. The NW Bay and west central (WC) Bay are equally favourable regions of LPS to cause very heavy rainfall over eastern side of Eastern Ghat. The frequency of very heavy rainfall does not show any significant trend in recent years over Orissa except some places in north-east Orissa which exhibit significant rising trend in all the monsoon months and the season as a whole.     

Rainfall analysis for Indian monsoon region using the merged rain gauge observations and satellite estimates: Evaluation of monsoon rainfall features

Objective analysis of daily rainfall at the resolution of 1° grid for the Indian monsoon region has been carried out merging dense land rainfall observations and INSAT derived precipitation estimates. This daily analysis, being based on high dense rain gauge observations was found to be very realistic and able to reproduce detailed features of Indian summer monsoon. The inter-comparison with the observations suggests that the new analysis could distinctly capture characteristic features of the summer monsoon such as north-south oriented belt of heavy rainfall along the Western Ghats with sharp gradient of rainfall between the west coast heavy rain region and the rain shadow region to the east, pockets of heavy rainfall along the location of monsoon trough/low, over the east central parts of the country, over north-east India, along the foothills of Himalayas and over the north Bay of Bengal. When this product was used to assess the quality of other available standard climate products (CMAP and ECMWF reanalysis) at the gird resolution of 2.5°, it was found that the orographic heavy rainfall along Western Ghats of India was poorly identified by them. However, the GPCC analysis (gauge only) at the resolution of 1° grid closely discerns the new analysis. This suggests that there is a need for a higher resolution analysis with adequate rain gauge observations to retain important aspects of the summer monsoon over India. The case studies illustrated show that the daily analysis is able to capture large-scale as well as mesoscale features of monsoon precipitation systems. This study with data of two seasons (2001 and 2003) has shown sufficiently promising results for operational application, particularly for the validation of NWP models.     

Inter-annual variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa (India) in relation to cyclonic disturbances

The summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa, a state on the eastern coast of India, is more significantly related than Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) to the cyclonic disturbances developing over the Bay of Bengal. Orissa experiences floods and droughts very often due to variation in the characteristics of these disturbances. Hence, an attempt was made to find out the inter-annual variability in the rainfall over Orissa and the frequencies of different categories of cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa during monsoon season (June–September). For this purpose, different statistical characteristics, such as mean, coefficient of variation, trends and periodicities in the rainfall and the frequencies of different categories of cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa, were analysed from 100 years (1901–2000) of data. The basic objective of the study was to find out the contribution of inter-annual variability in the frequency of cyclonic disturbances to the inter-annual variability of monsoon rainfall over Orissa. The relationship between summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa and the frequency of cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa shows temporal variation. The correlation between them has significantly decreased since the 1950s. The variation in their relationship is mainly due to the variation in the frequency of cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa. The variability of both rainfall and total cyclonic disturbances has been above normal since the 1960s, leading to more floods and droughts over Orissa during recent years. The inter-annual variability of seasonal rainfall over Orissa and the frequency of cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa during monsoon season show a quasi-biennial oscillation period of 2–2.8 years. There is least impact of El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) on inter-annual variability of both the seasonal rainfall over Orissa and the frequencies of monsoon depressions/total cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa.     

东绒布冰芯净积累量与印度夏季风降水的关系

珠穆朗玛峰东侧东绒布冰川积累区的降水主要是由印度夏季风环流带来的.根据东绒布冰芯记录恢复的净积累量与印度中北部和印度半岛东部地区的夏季风降水量具有基本一致的周期, 三者有着较好的相关性, 因此可以通过冰芯净积累量来反映更长时间序列印度某些地区夏季风降水量的变化趋势.东绒布冰芯净积累量的相对变化幅度大于印度夏季风降水量的变化, 表明高海拔地区的降水比低海拔地区具有更高的敏感性.     

A study of the empirical functions of the height fields over India and their relation with the rainfall

The empirical orthogonal functions have been obtained for the individual summer monsoon (June through September) months using the grid point values of monthly 700 mb geopotential heights over Indian region. The data for 21 summer monsoon months for the years 1958 to 1978 have been used in the present computation. The major variance reduction is due to the first three dominant functions accounting over 80% of the total variance in each month. The variance reduction only due to the first function ranges from 45 to 65%. The first function has in-pbase oscillation throughout the area indicating that the area under study is homogeneous and the centre of the oscillation lies over northwest India. The amplitudes of the first function also show generally quasipers stence in their sign within a season. The second function has two centres of action over the region of monsoon trough which are in phase. The third function has also two centres oriented in the east-west direction but they are in the opposite phase. Fairly large values of correlation coefficients between the patterns of the different monsoon months suggest that the patterns for these months corresponding to the first and the second functions respectively are quite similar. The patterns for these months also evolve with time in a related way. The spectrum analysis to the time series of amplitudes indicates the presence of the quasi-periodicity of 3 years during these monsoon months. The amplitudes corresponding to the dominant functions are found to be significantly related with the rainfall of central and western parts of India     

Homogeneous Indian Monsoon rainfall: Variability and prediction

The Indian summer monsoon rainfall is known to have considerable spatial variability, which imposes some limitations on the all-India mean widely used at present. To prepare a spatially coherent monsoon rainfall series for the largest possible area, fourteen subdivisions covering the northwestern and central parts of India (about 55% of the total area of the country), having similar rainfall characteristics and associations with regional/global circulation parameters are merged and their area-weighted means computed, to form monthly and seasonal Homogeneous Indian Monsoon (HIM) rainfall series for the period 1871–1990. This paper includes a listing of monthly and seasonal rainfall of HIM region. HIM rainfall series has been statistically analysed to understand its characteristics, variability and teleconnections for long-range prediction. HIM rainfall series isfound to be homogeneous, Gaussian distributed and free from persistence. The mean (R) rainfall is 757 mm (87% of annual) and standard deviation (S) 119 mm, with a Coefficient of Variation (CV) of 16%. There were 21 dry (K, -<R S) and 19 wet (R _i R + S) years during 1871–1990. There were clusters of frequent negative departures during 1899–1920 and 1965–1987 and positive departures during 1942–1961. The recent three decades show very high rainfall variability with 10 dry and 6 wet years. The decadal averages were alternatively positive and negative for three consecutive decades, viz., 1871–1900 (positive); 1901–1930 (negative); 1931–1960 (positive) and 1961–1990 (negative) respectively. Significant QBO and autocorrelation at 14th lag have been found in HIM rainfall series. To delineate the changes in the climatic regime of the Indian summer monsoon, sliding correlation coefficients (CCs) between HIM rainfall series and (i) Bombay msl pressure, (ii) Darwin msl pressure and (iii) Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature over the period 1871–1990 have been examined. The 31-year sliding CCs showed the systematic turning points of positive and negative CCs around the years, 1900 and 1940. In the light of other corroborative evidences, these turning points seem to delineate ‘meridional’ monsoon regime during 1871–1900 and 1940–1990 and ‘zonal’ monsoon regime during 1901–1940. The monsoon signal is particularly dominant in many regional and global circulation parameters, during 1951–1990. Using the teleconnections ofHIM series with 12 regional/global circulation parameters during the recent 36-year period 1951–86 regression models have been developed for long-range prediction. In the regression equations 3 to 4 parameters were entered, explaining upto 80% of the variance, depending upon the data period. The parameters that prominently enter the multiple regression equations are (i) Bombay msl pressure, (ii) April 500 mb Ridge at 75°E, (iii) NH temperature, (iv) Nouvelle minus Agalega msl pressure and (v) South American msl pressure. Eleven circulation parameters for the period 1951–80 were subjected to Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the PC’s were used in the regression model to estimate HIM rainfall. The multiple regression with three PCs explain 72% of variance in HIM rainfall.     

Indian monsoon variability in relation to Regional Pressure Index

In this paper Regional Pressure Index (RPI) over the Indian region (20‡N—40‡N and 70‡0E—85‡E) has been constructed for 101 years (1899-1999) on a monthly scale. The relationship of these indices was carried out with the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (June–September) (ISMR) over the various homogeneous regions, for all the time scales. From the analysis it has been seen that RPI in the month of May is significantly associated with ISMR over various regions on all the scales. The relationship is statistically significant at 1% level. The study reveals that RPI in the month of May and January will be a new precursor for the long range forecasting of ISMR on the smaller spatial scale. On the decadal and climatological scale, winter and spring time RPI show a significant inverse relationship with the rainfall over the regions Peninsular India (PI) and North West India (NWI), while the association is direct with Central North East India (CNEI) and North East India (NEI). The relationship is significant at 0.1 and 1% level respectively.     

Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India

The occurrence of exceptionally heavy rainfall events and associated flash floods in many areas during recent years motivate us to study long-term changes in extreme rainfall over India. The analysis of the frequency of rainy days, rain days and heavy rainfall days as well as one-day extreme rainfall and return period has been carried out in this study to observe the impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. The frequency of heavy rainfall events are decreasing in major parts of central and north India while they are increasing in peninsular, east and north east India. The study tries to bring out some of the interesting findings which are very useful for hydrological planning and disaster managements. Extreme rainfall and flood risk are increasing significantly in the country except some parts of central India.     

Large-scale interannual variation of the summer monsoon over India and its empirical prediction

Large-scale interannual variability of the northern summer southwest monsoon over India is studied by examining its variation in the dry area during the period 1871–1984. On the mean summer monsoon rainfall (June to September total) chart the 800 mm isohyet divides the country into two nearly equal halves, named as dry area (monsoon rainfall less than 800 mm) and wet area (monsoon rainfall greater than 800 mm). The dry area/wet area shows large variations from one year to another, and is considered as an index for assessing the large-scale performance of the Indian summer monsoon. Statistical and fluctuation characteristics of the summer monsoon dry area (SMDA) are reported. To identify possible causes of variation in the Indian summer monsoon, the correlation between the summer monsoon dry area and eleven regional/global circulation parameters is examined. The northern hemisphere surface air temperature, zonal/hemispheric/global surface air and upper air temperatures, Southern Oscillation, Quasi-biennial oscillation of the equatorial lower stratosphere, April 500-mb ridge along 75°E over India, the Indian surface air temperature and the Bombay sea level pressure showed significant correlation. A new predictor parameter that is preceding year mean monsoon rainfall of a few selected stations over India has been suggested in the present study. The stations have been selected by applying the objective technique ‘selecting a subset of few gauges whose mean monsoon rainfall of the preceding year has shown the highest correlation coefficient (CC) with the SMDA’. Bankura (Gangetic West Bengal), Cuddalore (Tamil Nadu) and Anupgarh (West Rajasthan) entered the selection showing a CC of 0.724. Using a dependent sample of 1951–1980 a predictive model (multiple CC = 0.745) has also been developed for the SMDA with preceding year mean monsoon rainfall of the three selected stations and the sea level pressure tendency at Darwin from Jan–Feb to Mar–May as independent parameters.     

Influence of different land-surface processes on Indian summer monsoon circulation

The impact of different land-surface parameterisation schemes for the simulation of monsoon circulation during a normal monsoon year over India has been analysed. For this purpose, three land-surface parameterisation schemes, the NoaH, the Multi-layer soil model and the Pleim-Xiu were tested using the latest version of the regional model (MM5) of the Pennsylvania State University (PSU)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) over the Indian summer monsoon region. With respect to different land-surface parameterisation schemes, latent and sensible heat fluxes and rainfall were estimated over the Indian region. The sensitivity of some monsoon features, such as Somali jet, tropical easterly jet and mean sea level pressure, is discussed. Although some features of the Indian summer monsoon, such as wind and mean sea level pressure, were fairly well-simulated by all three schemes, many differences were seen in the simulation of the typical characteristics of the Indian summer monsoon. It was noticed from the results that the features of the Indian summer monsoon, such as strength of the low-level westerly jet, the cross-equatorial flow and the tropical easterly jet were better simulated by NoaH compared with verification analysis than other land-surface schemes. It was also observed that the distribution of precipitation over India during the peak period of monsoon (July) was better represented with the use of the NoaH scheme than by other schemes.

Aerosol’s Impacts on the Indian Summer Monsoon and the East Asian Summer Monsoon:An Overview

India Peninsula and East Asia are high aerosol loading regions as well as major regions influenced by Asian monsoon. The changes of monsoon intensity and precipitation have great influence on economy, especially agricultural production of monsoon regions. There are many researches of impacts of aerosol on Indian monsoon, which have achieved many comprehensive progresses. Earlier researches show that atmospheric brown cloud caused negative radiative forcing and weakened the warming induced by greenhouse gases. Current researches show that absorbing aerosol enhanced the Indian monsoon and increased rainfall in pre-monsoon season, while the scattering effect of aerosol weakened the Indian summer monsoon and the East Asian summer monsoon and rainfall in monsoon season. Due to so many factors affecting the monsoon, researches of aerosol impacts on monsoon become more complex. Thus, these results remain uncertain. This paper reviews previous researches and generalizes the mechanisms of impacts of aerosols on Asian monsoon. By comparing the East Asian summer monsoon with the Indian summer monsoon, we discussed deficiencies of the prior researches, and pointed out the direction for future researches about the impact of aerosol on the Asian summer monsoon, especially on the East Asian summer monsoon.     

Impact of extreme rainfall in the central Sudan during 1999 as a partial analogue for reconstructing early Holocene prehistoric environments

The year 1999 was an exceptionally wet year, with severe floods in China, India and Australia and very high flow in the Nile. In Sudan, the July rainfall was unusually early and heavy, and persistent rains throughout August and early September caused severe floods in much of central Sudan, including Khartoum.The synoptic conditions historically associated with extreme rainfall events in central Sudan include a warm equatorial Indian Ocean, a strong summer monsoon over both Africa and India, a northward shift of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone earlier and further north than usual, and the presence of deep, well-developed westerly air masses accompanied by a strong Tropical Easterly Jet that allowed more moisture transport into Africa from the South Atlantic via the Congo basin, leading to very heavy precipitation in the Ethiopian uplands and the central Sudan.The intense late wet season rains in 1999 caused a major canal in the Gezira Irrigation Area to break its banks and filled normally dry depressions between dunes with water, providing a partial analogue of early Holocene environments in this region when small groups of Later Stone Age peoples occupied the sandy ridges seasonally. Global Circulation Models cannot provide such detailed local information.     

Space-based monitoring of severe flooding of a southern state in India during south-west monsoon season of 2018

Kerala, a southern state of India, experienced a severe flooding due to multi-day extreme rain events during July and August months of 2018. This disaster was one of the worst floods to hit the state and resulted in heavy losses of lives and property. Natural Disaster Management Authority of India reported that 483 people lost their lives and more than 50 lakhs population were affected severely. This short communication focuses on examining this flood event using satellite remote sensing. It is reported that Kerala received an excess of about 56% rainfall during July and August from multi-day extreme rainfall episodes. Few regions of Kerala received the rainfall in the range of 270–300 mm on August 14 and 15. Hourly rainfall events in the excess of 25 mm have also been reported during heavy rainy days. The present study reports that multi-day heavy rainy events during July and August brought an accumulated rainfall of about 1600 mm, which resulted in extreme flooding over Kerala.

     

Improving the performance of precipitation outputs from Global Climate Models to predict monthly and seasonal rainfall over the Indian subcontinent

Skilful prediction of the monthly and seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over India at a smaller spatial scale is a major challenge for the scientific community. The present study is aimed at achieving this objective by hybridising two mathematical techniques, namely synthetic superensemble (SSE) and supervised principal component regression (SPCR) on six state-of-the art Global Climate Models (GCMs). The performance of the mathematical model is evaluated using correlation analysis, the root mean square error, and the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency index. Results feature reasonable improvement over central India, which is a zone of maximum rainfall activity in the summer monsoon season. The study also highlights improvement in the monthly prediction of rainfall over raw GCMs (15–20% improvement) with exceptional improvement in July. The developed model is also examined for anomalous years of monsoon and it is found that the model is able to capture the signs of anomalies over different gridpoints of the Indian domain.     

Ocean-atmosphere interaction and synoptic weather conditions in association with the two contrasting phases of monsoon during BOBMEX-1999

Surface meteorological parameters acquired during the field phase experiment, BOBMEX-99, for the stationary periods (SP I and II) of the ship ORV Sagar Kanya over Bay of Bengal have been analysed. Active and weak monsoon conditions were observed during the first and the second phase of the experiment respectively over India as well as over the stationary ship location. The phase mean sea surface temperature (SST) is found to be the same in both the phases, however large differences have been observed in the phase mean values of wind speed, mean sea level pressure, latent heat and momentum fluxes at air-sea interface. Synoptic scale monsoon disturbances formed only during the period of strong north-south pressure gradient over the Bay region. Events of prominent fall in SST and in the upper 15 m ocean layer mean temperature and salinity values during typical rainfall events are cited. The impact of monsoon disturbances on ocean-atmosphere interface transfer processes has been investigated.     

The Indian monsoon and its economic impact

Indian economy is vitally linked with the monsoon because of its water resources. A large part of the country gets more than 75% of the annual rainfall during the four months, June to September.The production of foodgrains depends fairly closely on the amount and distribution of monsoon rainfall over the country. Further the generation of hydro-electric power from monsoon rain water has been traced over the last 20 years. While hydro-electric power constitutes about 40% of power from all sources, with proper surveys and planning additional hydro-electric power projects this percentage could, perhaps, be further substantially increased. The distinct advantage of hydro-electric power over all other types of power is that its source, i.e. monsoon water, is perennial, although it shows some fluctuations from year to year. The power of the monsoon winds at four and two stations on the West coast and in the interior resp. has been assessed on the basis of five years hourly wind data. The wind at New Kandla on the West coast has a good potentiality for power. The wind power could be used for electricity, grinding corn and drawing water. On the debit side, Indian economy suffers heavy losses due to floods and droughts almost every year.The population of India is increasing at a much faster rate than the total foodgrains production and soon the country may be facing a serious economic crisis. A large part of the monsoon water which is currently unutilized should be held at suitable locations for irrigation and possible power generation.