ALPEX-Simulation

Summary In a project ALPEX-Simulation, sponsored by the Österreichischer Fond zur Förderung der wissenschaftlichen Forschung (FWF), all eight cases of ALPEX-SOP cyclones were numerically simulated with a fine mesh isentropic model of the atmosphere. These numerical simulations in six-hourly intervals allow a deeper insight into the synoptics and dynamics of the cyclogeneses in the Western Mediterranean, especially into the genesis of the two basic types of cyclones: the so-called Überströmungs-type and Vorderseiten-type. In the first phase of cyclogenesis of the Überströmungs-type, the blocking and flow splitting of the cold air due to the Alps and the canalization between the Alps and the Massif Central are important. Cold air flows cyclonically around the western part of the Alps, creating a vorticity maximum at the south western edge of the Alpine, bow and leads also to an enhanced PV. In connection with warm air in the Mediterranean, a strong baroclinic zone is generated. The interaction between the arriving PV maximum in the upper troposphere and the enhanced PV at the bottom leads to cyclogenesis in the Western Mediterranean. In the case of the Vorderseiten-type warm air advection dominates with the exception of a shallow layer of cold air in the inner Po-Valley, which is shielded by the Alpine ridge. A well-pronounced PV maximum builds up and couples with the PV maximum arriving at upper levels, even before the cold air, coming from the north-west, has surrounded the Alps. The cold air only intensifies the development by raising the baroclinity. Therefore, the Vorderseiten-cyclogenesis is an orographically modified cyclogenesis, in the course of which the cyclonic development is triggered by the Alps, whereas the Überströmungs-cyclogenesis is an orographically induced cyclogenesis i.e. a true lee cyclogenesis.With 14 FiguresDied in a tragic traffic accident on June 6, 1993.     

A simple model of baroclinic adjustment and parameterization of eddy heat transport

Summary A nonlinear, forced, dissipative quasi-geostrophic, two-level -plane model of baroclinic instability is formulated. The model resolves a baroclinic zonal flow and a wave of arbitrary zonal scale. Multiple equilibrium solutions describing Hadley and eddy circulations coexist. Only the circulation with smaller thermal wind is stable. The most efficient eddy activity occurs at a zonal wavenumber close to the wavelength of maximum instability of linear baroclinic instability theory. For a wide range of forcing and dissipative parameters, the steady baroclinic zonal wind of the eddy regime is close to the critical shear of linear theory. Eddy statistics are obtained analytically in terms of the doparture of the zonally symmetric state from radiative equilibrium. A parameterization for the eddy heat transport is obtained.With 14 Figures     

The vertical structure of summertime local winds in the Wright Valley,Antarctica

Intensive observations of summertime up- and down-valley winds in a dry valley utilising airsondes, pilot balloons and a monostatic acoustic sounder are described. Both circulations show a distinctive layered vertical wind and temperature structure. Westerly down-valley flow is typically neutral and is characterised by strong surface winds overlain by light variable winds extending to an inversion between 2000 and 4000m in depth. Above this inversion, gradient winds prevail. This structure is similar to that of downslope winds observed elsewhere. The thermally-induced up-valley easterly flow is shown to be extremely well-developed in terms of its strength, depth and persistence. The strong surface easterly may reach 800 m in depth and usually undercuts the warmer westerly. The boundary between the two regimes is marked by an inversion. During easterly flow a surface-based, super-adiabatic layer of 100–200 m in depth is evident and is associated with weak convective activity. An intriguing aspect of the wind regime is the interaction between the easterly and westerly circulations in the valley. These are separated at the surface by a frontal zone which migrates up and down the valley. Further observational and modelling studies are recommended.     

On the ability of the LODYC GCM to simulate the thermocline depth in the equatorial Atlantic

Using a multivariate model testing procedure that distinguishes between model inadequacies and data uncertainties, we investigate the ability of the LODYC GCM to simulate the evolution of the 20°C isotherm depth during the 1982–1984 FOCAL/SEQUAL experiment in the equatorial Atlantic. Two different versions of the model are considered: the Ri version which has a Richardson number dependent parameterization of vertical mixing and the new TKE version which uses a local estimation of the turbulent kinetic energy to parameterize vertical mixing. Some effects of the forcing uncertainties are considered by forcing the TKE version with three equally plausible wind stress fields whose differences are consistent with the measurement and sampling errors, and the drag coefficient indeterminacy. The resulting uncertainties in the model response are substantial and can be as large as the differences between simulations with the two GCM versions, which stresses the need to take the forcing uncertainties into account. Although only one Ri run is available, it is shown that the TKE parameterization significantly improves the representation of the equatorial upwelling and the simulation of the depth of the thermocline in the eastern Atlantic. However, there remain significant differences with the observations which cannot be explained by the forcing uncertainties that were considered. The two model versions perform better in the equatorial wave guide than in the 12°N-12°S domain, and they are better distinguished over large domains than along sections, which shows that a global multivariate view point must be used in model-reality comparisons. Finally, a comparison with a linear multimode model emphasizes the need for greater model complexity to properly simulate the equatorial upwelling and the thermocline variability in the tropical Atlantic.This paper was presented at the Second International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Variability, held in Hamburg 7–11 September 1992 under the auspices of the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is L. Dümenil     

A mechanism of Alpine lee cyclogenesis as revealed by a quasigeostrophic variational filter

Summary Mechanisms associated with Alpine lee cyclogenesis during the early phase of their generation are investigated using a variational quasigeostrophic filter technique. It was possible to extract the quasigeostrophic signal from the available analyzed real data set.The results presented here are for the 11–12 March 1982, an example of so-called orographically induced lee cyclogenesis. Non-quasigeostrophic fields, calculated as a difference between observations and the quasigeostrophic fields, show significant magnitudes indicating the possible importance of non-quasigeostrophic processes. A dipole structure in the residual geopotential field was observed, similar to the results of numerical model experiments. Also, a strong upper-level non-quasigeostrophic divergence was found in the Alpine region 24 hours prior to lee cyclogenesis, lasting for 6–12 hours. On the other hand, quasigeostrophic results indicate only a local effect of mountain slopes, suggesting possibly a dominant role of the low-level blocking. A hypothetical scenario of Alpine lee cyclogenesis is proposed, based on results obtained here.With 14 Figures     

A study of gravity waves generated by convective systems in eta model forecasts

Summary Spectral filtering and visualization reveal a multitude of gravity waves in the fine mesh (29 km) Eta model output, extending into the large scale, masking the vertical motions associated with Rossby-modes. The 6 h forecast of the Eta model from 00 UTC 22 December 1994 initialization contains gravity waves recognizable over a broad spectrum of wavelengths as concentric circles radiating outward from centers of model convection. Contamination of the signal is therefore identifiable in any spectral range, as rings. Postprocessing techniques are presented to eliminate gravity wave contamination and to reveal the meteorologically significant signal. Low-pass filtering is found to be an effective means of extracting the Rossby signal, but with loss in Rossby signal that renders the results obtained with a high resolution model no better than what could have been obtained from a coarser resolution model. Time filtering, is suggested as a more effective method for eliminating the effects of fast modes while maintaining mesoscale details of the slow modes.With 9 Figures     

Mechanisms of low frequency intraseasonal oscillations of the Indian summer monsoon

Summary This work deals with idealized modelling experiments designed to understand the dynamical evolution of low frequency intraseasonal monsoonal oscillations that result from interactions between the large scale monsoon Reverse Hadley Cell (RHC) and moist convective processes. The monsoon differential heating, which primarily determines the low-level convergence of the large-scale monsoon flow, is found to play a decisive role in affecting the northward progression of the monsoonal modes. A strong north-south differential heating leads to a robust generation and steady maintenance of northward propagating monsoonal oscillations. A weaker land-ocean thermal contrast leads to feeble low frequency monsoonal modes that have relatively longer periods in the 30–50 day band. This increase in the period of the monsoonal oscillations due to weak north-south thermal contrast is in good agreement with the observational findings of Yasunari (1980) and Kasture and Keshavamurty (1987). It is speculated that such an increase in the oscillatory period may be an outcome from an elongation in the meridional scale of the transient Hadley type cells which act as resonating cavities for the monsoonal modes.A Mobile Wave CISK (MWC) form of interaction between the large scale monsoon and the transient circulations associated with the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is projected as a viable physical mechanism for the northward movement of low frequency modes. It is demonstrated that the effective low level convergence, following such an interaction, tends to shift northward relative to the site of interaction. This enables the heating perturbations to be displaced northward which in turn causes the secondary circulations and wind perturbations to follow. The essential criterion for the occurrence of a prolonged northward propagation of the low frequency modes is that the heating perturbations should phase lead the wind perturbations at all times.An examination of the - interactions on the 30–50 day time scale reveals that the conversion from the transient divergent motions to rotational motions is quite intense (feeble) in the strong (weak) monsoon differential heating experiments. Because of the closer proximity to the monsoon heat source and also due to the latitudinal variation of earth's rotational effects, the - interactions tend to be more pronounced to the north of 15°N while they are less robust in the near equatorial latitudes.The regularity of the monsoonal modes is found to depend on the strength of the monsoon differential heating and also on the periodic behaviour of the equatorial intraseasonal oscillations. The monsoonal modes are quite steady and exhibit extreme regularity in the presence of a weak north-south differential heating provided the equatorial forcing due to the MJO varies in a periodic manner. This result supports the findings of Mehta and Krishnamurti (1988) who found greater regularity of the 30–50 day modes during bad monsoon years.The low frequency monsoonal modes are found to be quite sensitive to the moisture availability factor (m) and the vertical profile of heating used in the MWC parameterization. A small increase in the value of (m) is found to significantly intensify the amplitude of the monsoonal oscillations while there is no considerable shift in the spectral frequency within the 30–50 day band as such. The 30–50 day motions show significant enhancement, with a relatively sharp spectral peak around 45 days, when the vertical profile of MWC heating has a maximum in the lower troposphere. However an upward displacement of the heating maximum tends to weaken the low frequency oscillations.With 19 Figures     

Seasonal variations of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol and direct radiative forcing over China

Summary Regional climate model (RegCM2) and sulfur transport model (NJUADMS) were combined to simulate the distribution of anthropogenic sulfate aerosol burden over China, where a look up table method was applied to illustrate sulfate formation from SO₂-oxidation. Direct radiative forcing of sulfate aerosol was further estimated using the scheme suggested by Charlson et al (1991). Investigations show that the annual average total sulfate column over mainland China is 2.01mg/m² with high value in East and Central areas (more than 7mg/m²). The annual average direct radiative forcing of China is about –0.85W/m². The forcing can reach –7W/m² in Central and East China during the winter season. Total sulfate column shows significant seasonal variations with winter maximum-summer minimum in the Southern part of China and spring maximum-autumn minimum in the northern part of China. Strong seasonal cycles of direct radiative forcing are also found due to the influence of total sulfate column, cloud, relative humidity and the reflectivity of underlying surfaceReceived May 16, 2001; accepted August 5, 2002 Published online: May 8, 2003     

Prognostic significance of dynamic factors of precipitation generation

On the basis of objective analysis of meteorological fields and 12-h precipitation amounts observed at the stations in the former European USSR, statistical relationships are studied between the diagnostic characteristics of dynamic forcing of vertical motion and occurrence frequency of precipitation of different intensity ranges over the whole area and each of six separate regions. The following diagnostics are considered: frontal parameter as a measure of baroclinicity and of pressure field curvature; neutral buoyancy level as a measure of grid-scale convective instability; scalar frontogenetic function at the 850-hPa level and dynamic tropopause height as measures of intensity of vertical transverse circulations in unstable baroclinic zones. Informativity estimates are presented of each diagnostic and their pair combinations as precipitation predictors. The frontal parameter (in all seasons) and the neutral buoyancy level (in all seasons but winter) are significant as single predictors of precipitation. Among the pair combinations of the diagnostics, those which include the frontal parameter are more informative, and the combination of the latter and the neutral buoyancy level is the most informative one. A comparable informativity, under certain conditions, is demonstrated by the combinations of the frontal parameter with the frontogenetic function and with the tropopause height (in particular, in winter and fall for heavy and very heavy precipitation). In all the cases, the values of the informativity criterion (Pierce’s index) are higher for more intense precipitation as a predictand.     

The role of the Atlantic freshwater balance in the hysteresis of the meridional overturning circulation

We have studied the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to surface freshwater forcing using an ocean GCM coupled to an energy-moisture-balance atmosphere model. The overturning collapses rapidly when a slowly increasing forcing applied to the North Atlantic passes a positive threshold, and spins up equally quickly when the forcing falls below a negative threshold. This well-known behaviour is referred to as hysteresis because the thresholds in forcing are different for the transitions in opposite directions. However, we argue that the behaviour of the Atlantic salinity is more fundamental than the forcing. Hysteresis as a function of freshwater forcing occurs because the states with North Atlantic overturning on and off each tend to reinforce their associated salinity distributions and inhibit the transition to the other state. During the collapse, the Atlantic becomes less saline because of the import of 80 Sv year of freshwater by ocean transports across 30°S; during the spin-up this freshwater is exported again. We show that qualitatively similar hysteresis behaviour can be produced by perturbing the system without any net freshwater forcing. The salinity flip-flop is associated with the appearance and disappearance of a shallow reverse overturning circulation south of the Equator, which is present while the northern overturning is absent, and may provide the mechanism for the ocean freshwater influx during collapse.     

The Value Of The β Coefficient In The Relaxed Eddy Accumulation Method In Terms Of Fourth-Order Moments

The commonly measured value of in the relaxed eddy accumulationmethod of about 0.56is shown to arise from the non-Gaussiannature of turbulence. Fourth-orderGram–Charlier functions forthe two-dimensional probability distributionsof variation in the horizontal component of wind velocityand concentrations of water vapour, carbondioxide and methane with respect to thevertical component of wind velocity are used to examinethe value of .An analytical solution for ispresented in terms of fourth-order moments.Under mean conditions, this solution givesa value for of0.557. Variation of is shown to be controlledprimarily by the ratio of the mean ofc'w3 (where c'is relevant to the entity of interest andw' is vertical component of windvelocity) to the correlationcoefficient between the entity concentrationand vertical component of wind velocity.     

Dynamics of limited-area models: Formulation and numerical methods

Summary Following a few historical remarks, approximations used in formulating the dynamics of limited-area and variable resolution atmospheric forecasting models are reviewed. Particular attention is given to current efforts to relax or remove the hydrostatic approximation.Turning to numerical methods used in discretizing the equations, an attempt is made to record recent work and to clarify the motivation for the various approaches being followed by different modeling centers. Topics commented upon include: semi-Lagrangian methods, numerical formulation of nonhydrostatic models, resolution, the eta (step-mountain) vs sigma or isentropic/sigma vertical coordinate, choice of the vertical grid, numerics of the propagation of gravity waves, and the box-average vs pointsample treatment of predicted variables.It is finally pointed out that the extraordinary diversity of roads being taken shows that a lot remains to be discovered as to what possible rewards may be found in exploring one or the other of the principles underlying the methods being developed.This is a revised and updated text of an invited lecture given within the One-Day Intensive Course of the International Workshop on Limited-Area and Variable Resolution Models, Beijing, China, 23–27 October 1995.     

An isentropic vertical coordinate model: Design and application to atmospheric frontogenesis studies

Summary The isentropic vertical coordinate model developed at UCLA is briefly reviewed. The review includes an outline of the approach used to overcome technical difficulties in handling model layers with small mass.The model's performance is demonstrated by simulating the evolution of a middle-latitude baroclinic disturbance. During the evolution of the disturbance, sharp frontal zones are generated in the upper and middle troposphere with realistic tropopause folding. The extent to which different dynamical processes contribute to frontogenesis is analyzed.While the model successfully simulates frontogenesis in the upper and middle troposphere, it has a difficulty in simulating surface fronts. The difficulty arises due to the lack of degrees of freedom in surface temperatures since an isentropic vertical coordinate model requires a large number ofvertical layers to obtain a highhorizontal resolution at the lower boundary. This suggests the potential of a hybrid vertical coordinate, which approaches at upper levels and at lower levels.With 12 Figures     

Diagnosis of mesoscale structures in cases of lee cyclogenesis during ALPEX

Summary Several cases of lee cyclogenesis that occurred during ALPEX-SOP have been analyzed, with the aim of separating the large scale structures from the subsynoptic/meso-a scale features that are characteristic of this meteorological phenomenon. The results presented here are mainly based on composites of the analyzed cases. We assume that the deformation caused by the orography can be, at least to a reasonable extent, isolated from the undisturbed state using scale separation. The analysis technique we employ provides the scale separation as built-in in the interpolation algorithm. The scale separation error due to the large inhomogeneities of the data density distribution is partly corrected using a method described in the text. The orographic disturbance appears in different mesoscale fields as a quasiantisymmetric dipolar structure. For example, high/low pressure, cold/warm temperature and anticyclonic/cyclonic couplets characterize the mesoscale fields near the Alps. A qualitative agreement is found with the structure of the orographically induced perturbations predicted by the normal mode theory of lee cyclogenesis.With 7 Figures     

Mesoscale ageostrophic circulations of two fronts observed during the fronts87 experiment: Diagnosis and interpretation

Summary This paper deals with the first results concerning mesoscale ageostrophic circulations as they were presented during the International Meeting on Fronts and Orography, held in Burghausen, Germany, on June 1991. The aim is to test the importance of some specific small scale and mesoscale processes on the observed ageostrophic circulations. For this, various available theoretical models including these processes are used, in order to put in evidence their effect or to diagnose their presence or not in the observed circulations. These secondary circulations have been observed in the vicinity of two surface cold fronts documented during the European experiment FRONTS87 and they are quantitatively evaluated and compared with the theoretical ones. The diagnoses are performed by numerically solving two versions of the two-dimensional Sawyer-Eliassen equation for the ageostrophic streamfunction: a form based upon the Geostrophic Momentum approximation of along-front geostrophy and a Primitive Equation form that allows the existence of a along-front ageostrophic component. A simple parameterization of the Ekman pumping effect in the secondary circulations is added, through a boundary condition in the Sawyer-Eliassen equation resolution.This application of the Sawyer-Eliassen equation to measured data from a network of two or three sounding stations allows the identification of the significant frontogenetic terms and the testing of the assumptions underlying this diagnostic tool. Also, the impact of various parameterizations is considered. For instance, the introduction of a boundary layer parameterization scheme permits the reproduction of low-level updrafts observed in reality ahead of the frontal zone and predicted by numerical models found in literature.With 18 Figures     

PV morphology of a frontal-wave development

Summary A case study is performed of a frontal-wave development on a trailing cold front in the Atlantic. The data base comprises principally the analysis and forecast fields of the global operational weather prediction model of the ECMWF, and the development itself is viewed from a potential vorticity (PV) perspective. It is shown that the ambient atmosphere contained three distinct and salient PV features: at the surface a frontal baroclinic zone; in the lower troposphere a co-aligned, moisture laden elongated band (2000 km long and 400 km wide) of enhanced PV; and at upper-levels a richly structured, southward extending PV pool. In the developments first phase a large-scale undulation of the surface frontal zone was accompanied by an in-phase movement of the upper-level anomaly. In a second phase two low-level wave features developed around 1000 km apart, and the resulting wave depressions were accompanied by a distortion of the baroclinic zone and the break-up of the low-level PV-band. In the subsequent mature phase the dominant secondary cyclone attained 500 km scale in the horizontal and acquired a coherent PV structure in the vertical.A PV-based diagnostic analysis provides evidence of both the self development of the PV features and their synergetic interplay. It also forms the basis for a comparison of the event with traditional and recent hypotheses for frontal-wave development.On the basis of the diagnosed relationship between the customarily depicted surface frontal-wave cups and the low-level PV-band, it is suggested that the segmentation of the latter provides a useful tool for monitoring and forecasting secondary developments. Also in the context of numerical weather prediction brief consideration is given to the sensivity of the frontal-wave development and structure to the spatial resolution of the associated forecast model and the specification of the initial fields.With 12 Figures     

Numerical simulations of wind and temperature structure within an Alpine lake basin, Lake Tekapo, New Zealand

Summary High-resolution numerical model simulations have been used to study the local and mesoscale thermal circulations in an Alpine lake basin. The lake (87km²) is situated in the Southern Alps, New Zealand and is located in a glacially excavated rock basin surrounded by mountain ranges that reach 3000m in height. The mesoscale model used (RAMS) is a three-dimensional non-hydrostatic model with a level 2.5 turbulence closure scheme. The model demonstrates that thermal forcing at local (within the basin) and regional (coast-to-basin inflow) scales drive the observed boundary-layer airflow in the lake basin during clear anticyclonic summertime conditions. The results show that the lake can modify (perturb) both the local and regional wind systems. Following sunrise, local thermal circulations dominate, including a lake breeze component that becomes embedded within the background valley wind system. This results in a more divergent flow in the basin extending across the lake shoreline. However, a closed lake breeze circulation is neither observed nor modelled. Modelling results indicate that in the latter part of the day when the mesoscale (coast-to-basin) inflow occurs, the relatively cold pool of lake air in the basin can cause the intrusion to decouple from the surface. Measured data provide qualitative and quantitative support for the model results.     

Numerical modeling of the nocturnal urban boundary layer

A numerical case study with a second-order turbulence closure model is proposed to study the role of urban canopy layer (UCL) for the formation of the nocturnal urban boundary layer (UBL). The turbulent diffusion coefficient was determined from an algebraic stress model. The concept of urban building surface area density is proposed to represent the UCL. Calculated results were also compared with field observation data. The height of the elevated inversion above an urban center was simulated and found to be approximately twice the average building height. The turbulent kinetic energy k, energy dissipation rate , and turbulence intensities u ² and w ² increase rapidly at the upwind edge of the urban area. The Reynolds stress uw displayed a nearly uniform profile inside the UBL, and the vertical sensible heat flux w had a negative value at the inversion base height. This indicates that the downward transport of sensible heat from the inversion base may play an important role in the formation of the nocturnal UBL.     

On the turbulence structure in the stable boundary layer over the Greenland ice sheet

Turbulence measurements from a 30 m tower in the stably stratifiedboundary layer over the Greenland ice sheet are analyzed. The observationsinclude profile and eddy-correlation measurements at various levels. Atfirst, the analysis of the turbulence data from the lowest level (2 m aboveground) shows that the linear form of the non-dimensional wind profile(m) is in good agreement with the observations for z/L <0.4, whereL represents the Obukhov length. A linear regression yieldsm=1+5.8z/L. The non-dimensional temperature profile (h) at the2m level shows no tendency to increase with increasing stability. The datafrom the upper levels of the tower are analyzed in terms of both localscaling and surface-layer scaling. The m and the h values show atendency to level off at large stability (z/>0.4) where represents the local Obukhov length. Hence, the linear form of the functions is no longer appropriate under such conditions. The bestcorrespondence to the data can be achieved when using the expression ofBeljaars and Holtslag for m and h. The vertical profiles of theturbulent fluxes, the wind velocity variances and temperature variance arealso determined. The momentum flux profile and the profiles of wind speedvariances are in general agreement with other observations if a welldeveloped low-level wind maximum occurs, and the height of this maximum isused as a height scale.     

Bioaccumulation of Cobalt in Parmelia sulcata

Six locations across mainland Portugal were selected for exposing Parmelia sulcata, for a one-year period (8 months for one site), with simultaneous measurement of total (dry + wet) deposition (one-month periods). The exposed lichens and the total (dry + wet) deposition were analysed for cobalt contents by INAA (instrumental neutron activation analysis) and ICP-MS (inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy), respectively. The designated wet deposition was evaluated through the collected water volume; the designated dry deposition was assessed after the (dried) residual mass of the wet deposition. An excellent agreement between Co contents in exposed lichens and the cumulative (1) Co contents in the dry deposition, (2) dry deposition, and (3) wet deposition has been found for the locations with alternate drought and precipitation months, high dry deposition, and high Co contents in the latter. Continuous rainfall was found to hinder the Co accumulation in the lichen due to its release from the lichen and/or lower Co contents in the dry deposition. At three locations, P. sulcata Co contents, after subtraction of the background (before exposure), equalled or exceeded the Co contents in the cumulative dry deposition at the end of the exposure time. The optimal exposure period for this species likely depends on the exposure conditions.