Climatic fluctuations in Bohemia from the 16th century until the present

Summary This is paper appraises the possibilities of using written sources of weather information and indirect indicators of the climate of Bohemia. The data are related mainly to the socalled Bohemian vine and hop growing region (the lower reaches of the Ohe River). On the basis of these data climatic fluctuations from the 16th century up to the present are described. Characteristics of climatic types are presented: the continental type (1501–1560, 1681–1750), the oceanic type (1561–1630), and the ambiguous type (1631–1680). On the basis of instrumental observations of the station Prague Klementinum it is possible to describe fluctuations of air temperature since 1771 and fluctuations of precipitation since 1804. These series are the basis material for the analysis of the cyclicity of climatic fluctuations and for the study of possible causes of this cyclicity. The obtained information of the climate of Bohemia since the 16th century for forecasting the climate fluctuations by means of the so-called diagnostic methods, which are based on the method of analogies.With 7 Figures     

European Surface Pressure Patterns for Months with Outstanding Climatic Anomalies During the Sixteenth Century

Monthly mean surface pressure patterns in the European area are reconstructed for those winter and summer seasons of the 16th century with outstanding climatic anomalies being either widespread over Europe or remarkably intensive in some European regions. From the available documentary information about weather characteristics and their sequences, it proved possible to infer prevalent processes of lower tropospheric advection of typical air masses and to assess the position and strength of major surface pressure centres on a monthly scale. For comparison with modern pressure patterns, monthly mean sea level pressure (SLP) grids from the 20th century have been selected for seasons with similar climatic anomalies. There are broad coincidences between these pressure patterns of the 16th and the 20th centuries except for cold summer seasons. Finally, results from the 16th century are discussed in terms of circulation dynamics (different phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in winter, decreasing frequency of anticyclonic ridging in summer).     

Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Fluctuations in Selected Parts of Europe During the Sixteenth Century

The article in hand presents a comparative analysis of unweighted thermic and hygric index series of different European regions (northern Switzerland, Germany, the Czech Republic, northern Italy, ancient Hungary, Poland and Spain). Besides methodological aspects about the formation of indices, especially the progress as well as the question of similarity development of these series in the 16th century are discussed and shown on the balance sheet. It becomes evident that with respect to the temperature on the level of unweighted indices the European regions of Germany, the Czech Republic and Switzerland are very similar during all seasons. In winter and summer these correlations are especially evident, during the transitional seasons they are smaller. Larger differences exist between the central European core region and the adjacent areas of research. In principle, the hygric differences are larger than the thermic ones.In the course of the sixteenth century marked cooling phases occurred during all seasons with increasing accentuation. These phases were typical for the climate of the Little Ice Age. In addition to this long-term analysis, some outstanding years of extreme weather like those of 1540, 1573 and 1587 are presented, in the course of which questions of climatic impact are included. Finally, recent instrumental data was used to conduct an analysis that compared the similarities between the respective regions and the similarities between the empirical data and indices. On the one hand, this confirmed the spatial pattern, on the other hand the usability of the indices.     

Climatic fluctuations on the century time scale: A review of high-resolution proxy data and possible mechanisms

We review the century time scale climatic variability that is observed in high-resolution proxy data records covering the past 10 000 yr. Cyclic variations with time scales ranging from 50 to 400 yr occur in oxygen isotope ratios derived from ice cores, tree-ring index series, pollen records and sea-ice extents. Century time scale cycles can also be identified in some biological and historical records and in long-term instrumental observations. In order to appreciate the century scale cycles in the context of climatic variability in general, a brief survey of all climatic time scales is presented.The traditional interpretation that decadal-to-century scale fluctuations in the climate system are externally forced, e.g. by variations in solar properties, is questioned. A different mechanism for these fluctuations is proposed on the basis of recent findings of numerical models of the ocean's thermohaline circulation. The results indicate that this oceanic circulation exhibits natural variability on the century time scale which produces oscillations in the ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux. Although global in extent, these fluctuations are largest in the Atlantic Ocean.     

Glacier Fluctuations in the Western Swiss and French Alps in the 16th Century

This article reviews evidence for 16th century glacial fluctuations in the western Swiss and the French Alps. Previously available sources and new historical sources, as well as dendrochronological investigations of larches that were destroyed by glacier advances (Great Aletsch Glacier), have shed much light in recent years on glacial movements in the 16th century. Many of the earliest know Records for glacial activity in the Western Alps date from the end of the 16th century and refer to outbursts of glacier dammed lakes (Allalin Glacier, Giétro Glacier, Rutor Glacier). Only few but very important evidence in the first half of the 16th century refer directly to glacial extension as in the case of the Lower Grindelwald Glacier and the Rhone Glacier. The drastic change in climate starting in 1565 which cause the remarkable advance of Alpine glaciers can be easily seen in the tree-ring curves (maximum density, tree ring width) of larches (Larix decidua Mill.) in the Alps.     

Climatic Variability in Sixteenth-Century Europe and its Social Dimension: A Synthesis

The introductory paper to this special issue of Climatic Change summarizes the results of an array of studies dealing with the reconstruction of climatic trends and anomalies in sixteenth-century Europe and their impact on the natural and the social world. Areas discussed include glacier expansion in the Alps, the frequency of natural hazards (floods in central and southern Europe and storms on the Dutch North Sea coast), the impact of climate deterioration on grain prices and wine production, and finally, witch-hunts.The documentary data used for the reconstruction of seasonal and annual precipitation and temperatures in central Europe (Germany, Switzerland and the Czech Republic) include narrative sources, several types of proxy data and 32 weather diaries. Results were compared with long-term composite tree ring series and tested statistically by cross-correlating series of indices based on documentary data from the sixteenth century with those of simulated indices based on instrumental series (1901-1960). It was shown that series of indices can be taken as good substitutes for instrumental measurements.A corresponding set of weighted seasonal and annual series of temperature and precipitation indices for central Europe was computed from series of temperature and precipitation indices for Germany, Switzerland and the Czech Republic, the weights being in proportion to the area of each country. The series of central European indices were then used to assess temperature and precipitation anomalies for the 1901-1960 period using transfer functions obtained from instrumental records. The statistical analysis of these series of estimated temperature and precipitation anomalies yielded features which are similar to those obtained from instrumental series.Results show that winter temperatures remained below the 1901-1960 average except in the 1520s and 1550s. Springs fluctuated from 0.3°C to 0.8°C below this average. Summer climate was divided into three periods of almost equal length. The first was characterized by an alternation of cool and warmer seasons. The second interval was 0.3°C warmer and between 5 and 6% drier than in the 1901–1960 period. It is emphasized that this warm period included several cold extremes in contrast to the recent period of warming. Summers from 1560 were 0.4°C colder and 4% more humid. Autumns were 0.7°C colder in the 1510s and 20% wetter in the 1570s. The deterioration of summer climate in the late sixteenth century initiated a second period of enlarged glaciers in this millennium (the first having been in the fourteenth century) which did not end until the late nineteenth century.An analysis of forcing factors (solar, volcanic, ENSO, greenhouse) points only to some volcanic forcing. In order to understand circulation patterns in the sixteenth century in terms of synoptic climatology, proxy information was mapped for a number of anomalous months. Attempts to compare circulation patterns in the sixteenth century with twentieth-century analogues revealed that despite broad agreements in pressure patterns, winters with distinct northeasterly patterns were more frequent in the sixteenth century, whereas the declining summer temperatures from the mid-1560s seem to be associated with a decreasing frequency of anticyclonic ridging from the Azores' center of action towards continental Europe. The number of severe storms on the Dutch North Sea coast was four times greater in the second half of the century than in the first. A more or less continuous increase in the number of floods over the entire century occurred in Germany and the Czech lands. The Iberian peninsula and the Garonne basin (France) had the greatest number of severe floods in the 1590s.The analysis of the effects of climate on rye prices in four German towns involved a model that included monthly temperatures and precipitation values known to affect grain production. The correlation with rye prices was found significant for the entire century and reached its highest values between 1565 and 1600. From the 1580s to the turn of the century wine production slumped almost simultaneously in four regions over a distance of 800 kilometers (Lake Zurich to western Hungary). This had far-reaching consequences for the Habsburg treasury and promoted a temporary shift in drinking habits from wine to beer. Peasant communities which were suffering large collective damage from the effects of climatic change pressed authorities for the organization of witch-hunts. Seemingly most witches were burnt as scapegoats of climatic change.     

Multi-century variability in the Pacific North American circulation pattern reconstructed from tree rings

We here present a reconstruction (1725–1999) of the winter Pacific North American (PNA) pattern based on three winter climate sensitive tree ring records from the western USA. Positive PNA phases in our record are associated with warm phases of ENSO and PDO and the reorganization of the PNA pattern towards a positive mode is strongest when ENSO and PDO are in phase. Regime shifts in our PNA record correspond to climatic shifts in other proxies of Pacific climate variability, including two well-documented shifts in the instrumental period (1976 and 1923). The correspondence breaks down in the early 19th century, when our record shows a prolonged period of positive PNA, with a peak in 1800–1820. This period corresponds to a period of low solar activity (Dalton Minimum), suggesting a ‘positive PNA like’ response to decreased solar irradiance. The distinct 30-year periodicity that dominates the PNA reconstruction in the 18th century and again from 1875 onwards is disrupted during this period.     

Climate and energy: A scenario to a 21st century problem

The energy contribution of anthropogenic climatic fluctuations has been estimated to a gain of 15–20 TW, in comparison with a gain or deficit of 100–300 TW from natural processes responsible for the observed climatic fluctuations of the last 200 years. A dominant role of an increase of CO₂ by a factor 2–5 in the next century, accompanied by side effects acting in the same direction, seems to be most likely. Under the assumption of constant natural factors anthropogenic warming and its effects on the Arctic sea-ice may successively lead to climatic states as in 1931–60, in the early Middle Age (900–1200) and in the climatic optimum period ca. 5000 BP. Finally it may result in a complete destruction of the Arctic sea-ice with a drastic shift of all climatic belts towards north, extending even to the interior Tropics.     

The Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age and simulated climatic variability

The CSIRO Mark 2 coupled global climatic model has been used to generate a 10,000-year simulation for ‘present’ climatic conditions. The model output has been analysed to identify sustained climatic fluctuations, such as those attributed to the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). Since no external forcing was permitted during the model run all such fluctuations are attributed to naturally occurring climatic variability associated with the nonlinear processes inherent in the climatic system. Comparison of simulated climatic time series for different geographical locations highlighted the lack of synchronicity between these series. The model was found to be able to simulate climatic extremes for selected observations for century timescales, as well as identifying the associated spatial characteristics. Other examples of time series simulated by the model for the USA and eastern Russia had similar characteristics to those attributed to the MWP and the LIA, but smaller amplitudes, and clearly defined spatial patterns. A search for the frequency of occurrence of specified surface temperature anomalies, defined via duration and mean value, revealed that these were primarily confined to polar regions and northern latitudes of Europe, Asia and North America. Over the majority of the oceans and southern hemisphere such climatic fluctuations could not be sustained, for reasons explained in the paper. Similarly, sustained sea–ice anomalies were mainly confined to the northern hemisphere. An examination of mechanisms associated with the sustained climatic fluctuations failed to identify a role for the North Atlantic Oscillation, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. It was therefore concluded that these fluctuations were generated by stochastic processes intrinsic to the nonlinear climatic system. While a number of characteristics of the MWP and the LIA could have been partially caused by natural processes within the climatic system, the inability of the model to reproduce the observed hemispheric mean temperature anomalies associated with these events indicates that external forcing must have been involved. Essentially the unforced climatic system is unable to sustain the generation of long-term climatic anomalies.     

Recent fluctuations in precipitation and runoff over the Nile sub-basins and their impact on main Nile discharge

Substantial fluctuations in precipitation and runoff have occurred over the Nile Basin in recent decades. Ten-year mean flows of the Blue Nile (Khartoum gauge) during the 20th century have ranged from 42.2 to 56.7 km³ and for the White Nile (Malakal gauge) from 25.5 to 36.9 km³. These fluctuations have been responsible for changes in decade-mean Main Nile discharge of up to ± 20% which have had important consequences for water resource management in both Egypt and Sudan.This paper provides a review of the Nile Basin hydrology incorporating, for the first time, analyses of the relationships between precipitation and runoff fluctuations in the instrumental period for each of the eight major sub-basins within the Nile Basin. These sub-basins possess very different physical, climatic and hydrological characteristics. Over 90% of the Main Nile discharge originates from only four of the sub-basins; Lake Victoria, Blue Nile, Atbara, and the Sobat. Interbasin correlations of 40 y (1945-84) precipitation and runoff annual time series identify two broadly homogeneous regions; the Ethiopian highlands (Blue Nile and Atbara) and the Lake Victoria and Equatorial Lakes (White Nile). These regions posses contrasting precipitation regimes whose interannual variations are uncorrelated in time and which are therefore associated with different atmospheric circulation anomalies. The observed relationships between catchment precipitation and runoff, however, are not straightforward and the sensitivity of runoff to precipitation fluctuations varies from basin to basin. Some of the water resource management implications of these fluctuations for Egypt are discussed. With water demand in Egypt alone set to increase 17% by the year 2000, it is critical that the role of future climate change in Nile water management is thoroughly assessed based on a correct modelling of the diverse hydrological characteristics of the various Nile sub-basins.     

Assessment of possible expansion of the climatic range of Italian locust (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Calliptamus italicus</Emphasis> L.) in Russia in the 21st century at simulated climate changes

The areas of distribution, high pest damage, and mass reproduction of Italian locust are mainly limited by climatic factors. It is demonstrated that under conditions of the RCP4.5 moderate scenario of anthropogenic impact on the global climate system in Russia in the 21st century the climatic range of Italian locust will be expanded mainly northward and, to a smaller extent, eastward. The expansion of the range by the middle of the 21st century as compared with the end of the 20th century will be more significant that at the end of the 21st century versus its middle.     

Climatic trends from isotopic records of tree rings: The past 100–200 years

There has been a great deal of discussion about global warming from accumulation of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (Houghton et al., 1990). Relatively less attention has been paid to spatial and/or temporal climatic variations that may be associated with a warmer climate (Rind et al., 1989) or with anthropogenic activities (Schneider, 1994). In this article, we show that an increase in climatic variability may have started. Fourteen isotopic time series of tree rings are presented. These trees were randomly collected from world-wide locations and cover time periods of 120 to over 200 years. The isotopic records show increasing D values that suggest a consistent and progressive warming occurred in the 19th century in all locations where the trees were sampled. The rate of warming is greater at relatively cold locations than at warm locations with two exceptions. The records also suggest greater climatic variations both temporally and spatially in the 20th century than in the 19th century.     

Climatic fluctuations in southern Italy since the 17th century: reconstruction with precipitation records at Benevento

This work analyses the climatic information of 607 weather anomalies belonging to a large documentary sources heritage of the continental southern Italy during the period 1675–1868. The collected information, mainly originating in Samnium River Region (SRR), were codified to obtain quantitative indices representative of a preliminary reconstruction of the precipitation anomalies. Historical written records of weather conditions that affect agriculture and living conditions have been taken as a proxy for instrumental observations of the relative wetness and dryness. As a consequence a numerical index was established to characterize the rainfall regime and its evolution. So, for the first time a series of the precipitation anomalies in SRR–continental southern Italy during the second half of the Little Ice Age was generated, and subsequently jointed to the instrumental series (1869–2002). Afterwards, in order to identify possible climatic change situations from 1675 today Normalized Cumulative Anomalies (NCA)–serie's and Climograms were produced. This historical period offered a sufficient range of natural variability in climate and circulation together with their relationships. Wettest period were detected in the 19th century, while that driest in the 18th century. However, the Mediterranean climate appearing from our study is far more complex than can be captured by a simple classification. In this way, the final picture is one switching between significantly different climate modes becoming apparent on several space-time-scales during the Late Little Ice Age.     

Assessment of forthcoming climate changes on the territory of the Russian Federation

A brief characterization of observed climatic changes in surface temperature is presented for the globe and the Russian Federation. In accordance with this characteristic, observed changes are indicative of global warming, most pronounced after the 1970s. The skill in simulating a global climate in the 20th century by modern climate models is analyzed. It is shown that climate models satisfactorily reproduce the fields of long–term means, the seasonal cycle, and tendencies of changes in some meteorological objects, whereas their interannual variability (after removal of the trend) is not virtually simulated by the models. An approach to constructing a strategic forecast of forthcoming climatic changes in the Russian Federation for the next decades is discussed, and recommendations on its using are formulated. A variant of a probabilistic strategic forecast of air temperature for the 30-year period of 2008–2037 over Russia is proposed.     

The Case of the `Maldá' Anomaly in the Western Mediterranean Basin (AD 1760–1800): An Example of a Strong Climatic Variability

The study of climatic anomalies on the basis of various types of instrumental information and proxy-data allows unusual events to be identified. The objective of this paper is to introduce and explain a hydrometeorological anomaly that occurred between 1760 and 1800 (Maldá Anomaly), characterised by a sequence of both anomalous droughts and floods, and to compare it with the features of the second part of the 20th century. Firstly, some climatic indices obtained from proxy-data (mainly documentary sources) have been generated. Secondly, instrumental observations made in earlier times, in conjunction with data from the bibliography, have been used in order to relate this period to the different circulation patterns and to analyse the geographical extension of the anomaly. The results confirm the presence of considerable variations in the atmospheric action centres, especially between 1780 and 1795, which in the Western Mediterranean gave rise to a simultaneous increase in the frequency of droughts and heavy rainfalls, either having nothing comparable or sharing similarities with periods in the 19th and 20th centuries.     

Impacts of future climatic change (2070–2099) on the potential occurrence of debris flows: a case study in the Massif des Ecrins (French Alps)

In this paper we investigate the impacts of future climatic change on the occurrence of debris flows in the Massif des Ecrins (French Alps). Two distinct aspects are discussed: the impact of future climatic change on the evolution of the process, and changes in the spatial distribution. Three climate simulations are presented for the current period (1970–1999) and for future periods (2070–2099) using GCM ARPEGE CLIMAT model developed by Météo-France. Simulated data are then statistically downscaled to obtain a higher spatial resolution. In the first step, we compare occurrence probabilities in the current period and in the next century. In the second step, we estimate which zones would be affected by the process in the future at the scale of the Massif des Ecrins. For the current period, the best model was obtained between debris flows and the number of days between June 15th and October 15th with more than 20 mm calculated either from observed meteorological or simulated data. Results of the ARPEGE model considering the A2 hypothesis (IPCC 2007) showed that the most significant climatic trends for the end of the century will be a decrease in intense rainy events and an increase in temperature. These trends are expected to reduce the occurrence of hill slope debris flows in the Massif des Ecrins. From a spatial point of view, the increase in temperature should result in a shift of the 0°C isotherm to a higher elevation which, in turn, should result in a 20% reduction of the number of slopes affected by the process.     

Solar irradiance during the last 1200 years based on cosmogenic nuclides

Based on a quantitative study of the common fluctuations of ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be production rates, we have derived a time series of the solar magnetic variability over the last 1200 years. This record is converted into irradiance variations by linear scaling based on previous studies of sun‐like stars and of the sun's behavior over the last few centuries. The new solar irradiance record exhibits low values during the well‐known solar minima centered at about 1900, 1810 (Dalton) and 1690 ad (Maunder). Further back in time, a rather long period between 1450 and 1750 ad is characterized by low irradiance values. A shorter period is centered at about 1200 ad , with irradiance slightly higher or similar to present day values. It is tempting to correlate these periods with the so‐called "little ice age" and "medieval warm period", respectively. An accurate quantification of the climatic impact of this new irradiance record requires the use of coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (GCMs). Nevertheless, our record is already compatible with a global cooling of about 0.5‐1°C during the "little ice age", and with a general cooling trend during the past millenium followed by global warming during the 20th century (Mann et al., 1999).     

1755年中国东部极端雨涝事件研究

1755年（清乾隆二十年）我国东部大范围、多流域严重雨涝,其后1756、1757年黄河中下游雨涝,连续2年呈现较少见的北涝南旱降水分布格局,这是小冰期中相对温暖时段气候背景下的重大气象灾害和极端气候事件。依据历史文献记载复原多雨的天气实况和气候特征,绘制各年多雨、水灾和伴生的饥荒、虫灾、疫疾的发生地域实况图。结果表明,1755年黄河、长江中下游和淮河流域持续多雨,其中黄淮地区连续雨日超过40 d。有早梅雨,长江下游的梅雨期长达43 d,是18世纪最长的梅雨期,南京的年降水量达1378 mm,是18世纪的最高值。1755年气温偏低,夏寒、秋霜早、冬季寒冷等特征与典型的极端多雨年1823和1954年相同,这3例极端多雨年都是太阳活动周的极小年。     

Global and hemispheric temperature reconstruction from glacier length fluctuations

Temperature reconstructions for recent centuries provide a historical context for the warming over the twentieth century. We reconstruct annual averaged surface temperatures of the past 400?years on hemispherical and global scale from glacier length fluctuations. We use the glacier length records of 308 glaciers. The reconstruction is a temperature proxy with decadal resolution that is completely independent of other temperature records. Temperatures are derived from glacier length changes using a linear response equation and an analytical glacier model that is calibrated on numerical model results. The global and hemispherical temperatures reconstructed from glacier length fluctuations are in good agreement with the instrumental record of the last century. Furthermore our results agree with existing multi-proxy reconstructions of temperature in the pre-instrumental period. The temperature record obtained from glacier fluctuations confirms the pronounced warming of the twentieth century, giving a global cumulative warming of 0.94?±?0.31?K over the period 1830–2000 and a cumulative warming of 0.84?±?0.35?K over the period 1600–2000.