Glacier Fluctuations in the Western Swiss and French Alps in the 16th Century

This article reviews evidence for 16th century glacial fluctuations in the western Swiss and the French Alps. Previously available sources and new historical sources, as well as dendrochronological investigations of larches that were destroyed by glacier advances (Great Aletsch Glacier), have shed much light in recent years on glacial movements in the 16th century. Many of the earliest know Records for glacial activity in the Western Alps date from the end of the 16th century and refer to outbursts of glacier dammed lakes (Allalin Glacier, Giétro Glacier, Rutor Glacier). Only few but very important evidence in the first half of the 16th century refer directly to glacial extension as in the case of the Lower Grindelwald Glacier and the Rhone Glacier. The drastic change in climate starting in 1565 which cause the remarkable advance of Alpine glaciers can be easily seen in the tree-ring curves (maximum density, tree ring width) of larches (Larix decidua Mill.) in the Alps.     

濮阳市近40年气候变化及未来趋势

利用濮阳1961-1999年的气象资料,分析了濮阳气候变化趋势,结果表明,39年来,气温增高,降水减少,雷暴、大风、日照等天气要素指数均呈负上升状态.从39年的气候变化趋势可以看出,未来干旱有可能成为濮阳比较突出的气候问题,气候异常极端事件也可能会较多地出现.上述气候变化与城市建设有一定关系.     

濮阳市近40年气候变化及未来趋势

利用濮阳1961－1999年的气象资料，分析了濮阳气候变化趋势，结果表明，39年来，气温增高，降水减少，雷暴，大风，日照等天气要素指数均呈负上升状态。从39年的气候变化趋势可以看出，未来干旱有可能成为濮阳比较突出的气候问题，气候异常极端事件也可能会较多地出现，上述气候变化与城市建设的一定关系。     

气候变化对苏尼特草原NDVI的影响

利用苏尼特草原地区1982—2006年NOAA AVHRR的NDVI数字遥感影像,以及1998-2007年逐旬的SPOT VAG-NDVI数据集,结合研究区域内苏尼特左旗、苏尼特右旗、朱日和、二连浩特4个气象站点的同期降水、气温数据,对植被盖度与不同组合方式的降水及气温数据进行了相关分析,探讨了植被盖度与气象因子的关系。结果表明：苏尼特草原生长季平均盖度、逐月盖度与降水呈正相关关系,与气温呈负相关关系,其中降水对盖度的影响存在着时滞及累积效应。     

城市热岛效应及对锡林浩特气候变化的影响

利用气候相似性原理和锡林郭勒盟地区气象站站址变迁造成的温度序列变化差异,分析城市热岛效应对城市气温变化的作用,以及对气候变化趋势的影响。选取锡林浩特为代表城市,采用线性趋势分析、相关分析等方法,分析、讨论了城市与郊区气温差异,城市与草原温度历史演变差异,以及城市热岛效应对气候变化的影响等,结果表明:城市热岛效应对城市增温作用明显,使锡林浩特市区年平均气温比周围郊区增高了0.57℃;城市热岛效应对锡林浩特市气候变暖趋势也有一定影响,使锡林浩特相对草原区有0.07℃/10a的增温趋势。     

青藏地区未来百年气候变化

利用各国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)数据分发中心(DDC)提供的7个全球海气耦合气候系统模式(CCC,CCSR,CSIRO,DKRZ,GFDL,HADL,NCAR)的模拟结果,对我国青藏地区未来100年由于人类活动影响造成的气候变化进行了分析,尤其是对青藏铁路沿线各站的平均温度、降水,以及最高、最低温度的变化进行了初步分析。结果表明,青藏地区的温度变化与全国相比,增暖幅度更大;21世纪中期,在只考虑温室气体的增加和既考虑温室气体的增加又考虑硫化物气溶胶增加时,青藏铁路沿线各站的增温幅度在2．8～3．0℃之间;21世纪末,青藏铁路沿线各站的增温幅度在3．8～4．8℃之间。冬季最低温度和夏季最高温度的增暖幅度也比平均温度的增暖幅度大,在两种情形下,青藏铁路沿线各站冬季最低温度在2050年将分别增加2～4℃和1～3℃,2100年将分别增加6～8℃和4～6℃;夏季最高温度在2050年分别增加2～4℃和1．2～2．8℃,2100年将变暖4～7℃和3．8～6℃。在只考虑温室气体的影响时,21世纪中期青海和西藏地区年平均的降水增加,增加的范围在2．5～10mm／mon,21世纪后期降水继续增加;考虑硫化物气溶胶的影响后,21世纪中期和后期除了青藏地区北部的降水略有增加外,其余大部分地区的降水基本上都将减少。由于全球气候模式的模拟存在较大的不确定性,仍需要做更多的深入研究。     

Climatic fluctuations in Bohemia from the 16th century until the present

Summary This is paper appraises the possibilities of using written sources of weather information and indirect indicators of the climate of Bohemia. The data are related mainly to the socalled Bohemian vine and hop growing region (the lower reaches of the Ohe River). On the basis of these data climatic fluctuations from the 16th century up to the present are described. Characteristics of climatic types are presented: the continental type (1501–1560, 1681–1750), the oceanic type (1561–1630), and the ambiguous type (1631–1680). On the basis of instrumental observations of the station Prague Klementinum it is possible to describe fluctuations of air temperature since 1771 and fluctuations of precipitation since 1804. These series are the basis material for the analysis of the cyclicity of climatic fluctuations and for the study of possible causes of this cyclicity. The obtained information of the climate of Bohemia since the 16th century for forecasting the climate fluctuations by means of the so-called diagnostic methods, which are based on the method of analogies.With 7 Figures     

广西春播期降水变化的气候诊断分析

对 195 9- 2 0 0 0年广西春播期 (2～ 4月 )及各月降水进行 EOF分解 ,分析了其空间分布型态及气候变化规律。结果表明 :广西春播期降水及各月降水全区一致性偏多 (少 )是主要分布型态 ;2、 3月降水呈增加趋势 ,由少雨向多雨转变 ,4月降水呈减少趋势 ,由多雨向少雨转变 ,二者有反相的特点 ;春播期及各月降水均存在准 2 a振荡 ,分月降水还具有 45 a左右的长周期变化 ;90年代后期 ,广西春播期降水进入一个相对少雨期     

European Tree Rings and Climate in the 16th Century

We present a selective review of tree-ring variability and inferred climate changes in Europe during the 16th century. The dendroclimatological evidence is assessed within the context of the last 500 years and some interpretational problems are discussed. The tree-ring evidence is compared with various non-dendroclimatic evidence. The body of evidence shows that a large region of mid and northern Europe experienced a sharp cooling at around 1570/80 that, at least in the north, marked a shift towards a prolonged period of cool conditions. This region had its southern boundary in the Alps and there is little evidence for a major cooling in southern Europe.     

Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Fluctuations in Selected Parts of Europe During the Sixteenth Century

The article in hand presents a comparative analysis of unweighted thermic and hygric index series of different European regions (northern Switzerland, Germany, the Czech Republic, northern Italy, ancient Hungary, Poland and Spain). Besides methodological aspects about the formation of indices, especially the progress as well as the question of similarity development of these series in the 16th century are discussed and shown on the balance sheet. It becomes evident that with respect to the temperature on the level of unweighted indices the European regions of Germany, the Czech Republic and Switzerland are very similar during all seasons. In winter and summer these correlations are especially evident, during the transitional seasons they are smaller. Larger differences exist between the central European core region and the adjacent areas of research. In principle, the hygric differences are larger than the thermic ones.In the course of the sixteenth century marked cooling phases occurred during all seasons with increasing accentuation. These phases were typical for the climate of the Little Ice Age. In addition to this long-term analysis, some outstanding years of extreme weather like those of 1540, 1573 and 1587 are presented, in the course of which questions of climatic impact are included. Finally, recent instrumental data was used to conduct an analysis that compared the similarities between the respective regions and the similarities between the empirical data and indices. On the one hand, this confirmed the spatial pattern, on the other hand the usability of the indices.     

近四十年我国气候变化的初步分析

本文对近四十年来我国的气候变化作了一个初步分析。结果表明,众所周知的全球增暖在我国只反映在东北、华北和西北西部地区;大约35°N以南,南岭以北,青藏高原以东地区是变冷区,变冷中心在四川、陕南和滇北;在全球温室效应下,高低纬变湿和中纬变干,而我国则大部分地区变干,华北和西北变干更明显。我国气候变化特点和全球增暖趋势有许多不一致,这一点值得引起我国气候学家的注意。     

浅析鄂尔多斯地区气候变化及其对生态环境的影响

利用鄂尔多斯地区近50a的气候资料,分析气候条件对生态环境的影响。结果表明:1961—2010年鄂尔多斯地区气温变化呈上升趋势;年降水量变化不明显,蒸发量自西向东增多,年蒸发量是年降水量的7.9倍;70年代,由于受干旱气候和人为因素的共同影响,鄂尔多斯市的大风、沙尘暴日数一度增加,但随着2000年开始的大规模治理,大风、沙尘暴日数明显减少;遥感产品监测到近10a鄂尔多斯市的生态状况得到了全面逆转,森林覆盖率、植被覆盖率得到大幅提升,生态步入良性循环的态势。     

气候变化对人体健康影响的综合指标探讨

气候变化,即气温、湿度、气压、风、太阳辐射、大气化学物质等各种气候因子的变化, 皆能引起人体生理和心理的反应。综合考虑各个气候因子的影响程度、变化机理,得出一种能反映气候的变化与人体健康之间的关系综合指标,这对于气候和环境的变化对人类健康影响的分析研究有重要意义。       

1961—2011年阿勒泰地区的气候生产潜力变化分析

依据阿勒泰地区1961-2011年的逐月气象观测资料,采用目前常用的Thomthwaite Memorial模型计算了气候生产潜力.结果表明,阿勒泰地区的气候生产潜力为西部、北部最大,东部居中,南部的福海县最小,最大值与最小值相差达40％,空间分布不均;阿勒泰地区的气候生产潜力从20世纪60年代以来,总体呈现增加趋势,尤其是2000年以来,达到年代最大;阿勒泰地区气候生产潜力与年降水量有极好的正相关性,降水量是制约气候生产潜力的最主要的气候因子;气候生产潜力越大的县,变异系数越小,年变化越小,稳定性也就越好.     

近50年平凉地区气候变化及其对农业生产的影响

利用统计学方法对80年代前后平凉地区的气候变化特点进行了研究，并分析了气候变化对农业生产所产生的影响，为合理利用本地气候资源提供依据。     

秋冬气候变化对乌鲁木齐冬小麦播期的影响

通过对1976-2006年秋冬气候条件分析。得出鸟鲁木齐冬小麦冬前生长期间和越冬期间的气候条件发生了较明显的变化,表现为气温升高、降水减少、冬前〉0℃积温增加,越冬期初日后推,冬前生长期延长,越冬期间负积温减少。结果表明随着气候的变暖适当晚播更有利于冬小麦生长,冬小麦的适宜播种期应在传统播种期的基础上向后推迟一候左右。     

Solar Forcing of Global Climate Change Since The Mid-17th Century

Spacecraft measurements of the sun's total irradiance since 1980 have revealed a long-term variation that is roughly in phase with the 11-year solar cycle. Its origin is uncertain, but may be related to the overall level of solar magnetic activity as well as to the concurrent activity on the visible disk. A low-pass Gaussian filtered time series of the annual sunspot number has been developed as a suitable proxy for solar magnetic activity that contains a long-term component related to the average level of activity as well as a short-term component related to the current phase of the 11-year cycle. This time series is also assumed to be a proxy for solar total irradiance, and the irradiance is reconstructed for the period since 1617 based on the estimate from climatic evidence that global temperatures during the Maunder Minimum of solar activity, which coincided with one of the coldest periods of the Little Ice Age, were about 1 °C colder than modern temperatures. This irradiance variation is used as the variable radiative forcing function in a one-dimensional ocean–climate model, leading to a reconstruction of global temperatures over the same period, and to a suggestion that solar forcing and anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing made roughly equal contributions to the rise in global temperature that took place between 1900 and 1955. The importance of solar variability as a factor in climate change over the last few decades may have been underestimated in recent studies.     

气候变化对小油菜生长发育及产量的影响

以青海省门源县为例,分析小油菜生育期气候变化规律.观测资料表明,小油菜生育期气温升高,气候变暖,4～8月降水量以每10年1.64～20.70 mm的幅度下降,9月降水以每lO年20.16 mm的幅度增加;气候变暖使小油菜播种期提前,成熟期推迟,生育期延长,为提高气候资源利用率和单位面积产量提供了保证;增温对各发育阶段的影响差异明显,除出苗至现蕾间发育进程加快外,其余各发育期生长发育出现迟缓变化;气候产量主要受4、6月和年平均气温及6月降水的影响.     

新一代天气预报业务流程管理系统

通过计算阳泉市水资源的几个重要参数，进一步揭示了气候变化对水资源的影响，同时指出阳泉市水资源的缺乏以及应采取的几项对策。     

环青海湖地区气候变化及其对湖泊水位的影响

分析青海湖地区1961～2000年气象观测资料得出：年和四季的气温、地表蒸发以及年和夏季、冬季降水变化的气候倾向率均为正值;而春季、秋季降水变化的气候倾向率为负值。气温升高、地表蒸发加大的趋势比较显著,而降水增多的趋势不显著且年代际变化比较大,气温、地表蒸发等气象要素有向暖干化过渡的趋势,这种暖干化趋势是造成青海湖水位下降的主要原因之一。