Impact of nonlinear processes on formation of the Kuroshio large meander path in a barotropic inflow-outflow model

Based on a barotropic inflow-outflow model,we examine the formation of the Kuroshio large meander(LM) using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) method.Both linear and nonlinear evolutions of such perturbations obtained by this method are investigated.The results show that the nonlinear evolution can result in the Kuroshio transition from a straight to LM path,whereas the linear evolution cannot.This implies that nonlinearity plays an important role in the formation of the Kuroshio LM path.The nonlinearity exists as advection in the evolution equations of the perturbation derived from the barotropic inflow-outflow model,namely the nonlinear advection of the perturbation by the perturbation(NAPP).By examining the role of this nonlinearity,we find that the NAPP tends to move the cyclonic eddy induced by the CNOP-type perturbation westward.Together with the beta effect,this offsets part of the eastward advection caused by the interaction between the perturbation and the background flow.Hence,the eastward movement of the cyclonic eddy is significantly weakened,effectively causing the eddy to develop.The sufficient evolution of this cyclonic eddy leads to the formation of the Kuroshio LM.     

Optimal nonlinear excitation of decadal variability of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation

Nonlinear development of salinity perturbations in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation （THC） is investigated with a three-dimensional ocean circulation model, using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation method. The results show two types of optimal initial perturbations of sea surface salinity, one associated with freshwater and the other with salinity. Both types of perturbations excite decadal variability of the THC. Under the same amplitude of initial perturbation, the decadal variation induced by the freshwater perturbation is much stronger than that by the salinity perturbation, suggesting that the THC is more sensitive to freshwater than salinity perturbation. As the amplitude of initial perturbation increases, the decadal variations become stronger for both perturbations. For salinity perturbations, recovery time of the THC to return to steady state gradually saturates with increasing amplitude, whereas this recovery time increases remarkably for freshwater perturbations. A nonlinear （advective） feedback between density and velocity anomalies is proposed to explain these characteristics of decadal variability excitation. The results are consistent with previous ones from simple box models, and highlight the importance of nonlinear feedback in decadal THC variability.     

CNOP-P-based parameter sensitivity for double-gyre variation in ROMS with simulated annealing algorithm

Reducing the error of sensitive parameters by studying the parameters sensitivity can reduce the uncertainty of the model, while simulating double-gyre variation in Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS). Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation related to Parameter(CNOP-P) is an effective method of studying the parameters sensitivity, which represents a type of parameter error with maximum nonlinear development at the prediction time. Intelligent algorithms have been widely applied to solving Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation(CNOP). In the paper, we proposed an improved simulated annealing(SA) algorithm to solve CNOP-P to get the optimal parameters error,studied the sensitivity of the single parameter and the combination of multiple parameters and verified the effect of reducing the error of sensitive parameters on reducing the uncertainty of model simulation. Specifically, we firstly found the non-period oscillation of kinetic energy time series of double gyre variation, then extracted two transition periods, which are respectively from high energy to low energy and from low energy to high energy. For every transition period, three parameters, respectively wind amplitude(WD), viscosity coefficient(VC)and linear bottom drag coefficient(RDRG), were studied by CNOP-P solved with SA algorithm. Finally,for sensitive parameters, their effect on model simulation is verified. Experiments results showed that the sensitivity order is WDVCRDRG, the effect of the combination of multiple sensitive parameters is greater than that of single parameter superposition and the reduction of error of sensitive parameters can effectively reduce model prediction error which confirmed the importance of sensitive parameters analysis.     

Optimal precursor of the transition from Kuroshio large meander to straight path

We used the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) method to explore the optimal precursor of the transition from Kuroshio large meander(LM) to straight path within a barotropic inflowoutflow model,and found that large amplitudes of the optimal precursor are mainly located in the east of Kyushu,which implies that perturbations in the region are important for the transition from LM to straight path.Furthermore,we investigated the transition processes caused by the optimal precursor,and found that these processes could be divided into three stages.In the first stage,a cyclonic eddy is advected to the formation region of the Kuroshio large meander,which enhances the LM path and causes a cyclonic eddy to shed from the Kuroshio mainstream.This process causes the LM path to change into a small meander path.Subsequently,the small meander is maintained for a period because the vorticity advection is balanced by the beta effect in the second stage.In the third stage,the small meander weakens and the straight path ultimately forms.The positive vorticity advecting downstream is responsible for this process.The exploration of the optimal precursor will conduce to improve the prediction of the transition processes from LM path to straight path,and its spatial structure can be used to guide Kuroshio targeted observation studies.     

Identifying sensitive areas of adaptive observations for prediction of the Kuroshio large meander using a shallowwater model

Sensitive areas for prediction of the Kuroshio large meander using a 1.5-layer,shallowwater ocean model were investigated using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) and first singular vector(FSV) methods.A series of sensitivity experiments were designed to test the sensitivity of sensitive areas within the numerical model.The following results were obtained:(1) the effect of initial CNOP and FSV patterns in their sensitive areas is greater than that of the same patterns in randomly selected areas,with the effect of the initial CNOP patterns in CNOP sensitive areas being the greatest;(2) both CNOP- and FSV-type initial errors grow more quickly than random errors;(3) the effect of random errors superimposed on the sensitive areas is greater than that of random errors introduced into randomly selected areas,and initial errors in the CNOP sensitive areas have greater effects on final forecasts.These results reveal that the sensitive areas determined using the CNOP are more sensitive than those of FSV and other randomly selected areas.In addition,ideal hindcasting experiments were conducted to examine the validity of the sensitive areas.The results indicate that reduction(or elimination) of CNOP-type errors in CNOP sensitive areas at the initial time has a greater forecast benefit than the reduction(or elimination) of FSVtype errors in FSV sensitive areas.These results suggest that the CNOP method is suitable for determining sensitive areas in the prediction of the Kuroshio large-meander path.     

NUMERICAL STUDY ON THE FORMATION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WARM CURRENT Ⅱ. BAROCLINIC CASE

In this part, Levitus‘ climatological temperature and salinity are incorporated in the numerical model developed in Part I. Diagnostic and prognostic experiment on the thermohaline circulation were conducted. The smooth Levitus‘ data do not include any information on the South China Sea Warm Current (SCSWC), so it is not in the model-produced diagnostic thermohaline circulation. Although the SCSWC does not appear in the wind-driven circulation in the barotropic case, it appears in the prognostic wind-driven circulation in the baroclinic case. This implies that the differing circulation pat-terns between barotropic case and bareclinic case are due to the stratification. The prognostic thermohaline circulation with wind stress and inflow/outflow transports at open boundaries are also discussed. Coupling of density and dynamic forces makes the circulation pattern more complicated, Even though the stratification is not always a direct cause of the formation of the SCSWC, it is at least an indirect cause.     

The baroclinic residual circulation in shallow seas

There are two different modeling approaches which have been proposed and utilized to derive residual currents: the first approach is equivalent to deducing residual currents from current-meter records using filtering techniques or time averages of time-series records to remove tidal variations; in the second approach, filters or time averages over several tidal cycles are applied to the hydrodynamic equations to generate the governing equations for residual circulation. Based on the latter, both the baroclinic dynamic models of residual circulation are proposed, of which one is a two-dimensional transport model and the other is a three-dimensional model with variable eddy viscosity. The two-dimensional transport model is a direct generalization from the barotropic model of residual circulation presented by Nihoul and Randy (1975) and Heaps (1978) to the baroclinic model. In the three-dimensional model with variable eddy viscosity, using a Sturm-Liouville system adopted in the reference [5], the nondimensional problem for residual circulation reduces to the nondimensional problem of the elevation and the expression of residual currents. It should be pointed out that both the baroclinic models developed in the present paper are confined to describe the Eulerian residual circulation only.     

Modelling the upwelling offthe east Hainan Island coast in summer 2010

A synoptic-scale upwelling event that developed off the east coast of the Hainan Island(EHIU) in the summer of 2010 is defi ned well via processing the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) sea surface temperature(SST) data. The Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS) with high spatial resolution has been used to investigate this upwelling event. By comparing the ROMS results against tide station data, Argo fl oat profi les and MODIS SST, it is confi rmed that the ROMS reproduces the EHIU well. The cooler-water core(CWC) distinguished by waters(27) 27.5°C in the EHIU, which occurred in the east Qiongzhou Strait mouth area and was bounded by a high temperature gradient, was the focus of this paper. Vertical structure of the CWC suggests that interaction between the westward fl ow and the bathymetry slope played a signifi cant role in the formation of CWC. Numerical experiments indicated that the westward fl ow in the Qiongzhou Strait was the result of tidal rectifi cation over variable topography(Shi et al., 2002), thus tides played a critical role on the development of the CWC. The negative wind stress curl that dominated the east Qiongzhou Strait mouth area suppressed the intensity of the CWC by 0.2–0.4°C. Further, nonlinear interaction between tidal currents and wind stress enhanced vertical mixing greatly, which would benefi t the development of the CWC.     

Effects of tidal currents on nonlinear internal solitary waves in the South China Sea

The propagation and fission process of internal solitary waves (ISWs) with amplitudes of about 170 m are simulated in the northeast of the South China Sea (NSCS) by using the generalized Korteweg-de Vries (KdV) equation under continuous stratification. More attention is paid to the effects of the ebb and flood background currents on the fission process of ISWs. This kind of background current is provided by the composed results simulated in terms of monthly mean baroclinic circulation and barotropic tidal current. It is found that the obtained relation of the number of fission solitons to the water depth and stratification is roughly in accordance with the fission law derived by Djordjevic and Redekopp in 1978; however, there exists obvious difference between the effects of the ebb and flood background currents on the wave-lengths of fission solitons (defined as the distance between two neighboring peaks of ISWs). The difference in nonlinearity coefficient α between the ebb and flood background currents is a main cause for the different wave-lengths of fission solitons.     

Adjoint Method-Based Algorithm for Calculating the Relative Dispersion Ratio in a Hydrodynamic System

Relative dispersion ratio(RDR) can be used to quantify the deviation behavior of a water parcel's trajectory caused by a disturbance in a hydrodynamic system. It can be calculated by using a standard method for determining relative dispersion(RD),which accounts for the growth of the deviation of a cluster of particles from a specific initial time. However, the standard method for computing RD is time consuming. It involves numerous computations on tracing many water parcels. In this study, a new method based on the adjoint method is proposed to acquire a series of RDR fields in one round of tracing. Through this method,the continuous variation in the RDR corresponding to a time series of the disturbance time t can be obtained. The consistency and efficiency of the new method are compared with those of the standard method by applying it to a double-gyre flow and an unsteady Arnold-Beltrami-Childress flow field. Results show that the two methods have good consistency in a finite time span. The new method has a notable speedup for evaluating the RDR at multiple t.     

A numerical study of the South China Sea Warm Current during winter monsoon relaxation

Using a Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model, we investigated the dynamic mechanism of the South China Sea Warm Current(SCSWC) in the northern South China Sea(NSCS) during winter monsoon relaxation. The model reproduces the mean surface circulation of the NSCS during winter, while model-simulated subtidal currents generally capture its current pattern. The model shows that the current over the continental shelf is generally southwestward, under a strong winter monsoon condition, but a northeastward counter-wind current usually develops between 50-and 100-m isobaths, when the monsoon relaxes. Model experiments, focusing on the wind relaxation process, show that sea level is elevated in the northwestern South China Sea(SCS), related to the persistent northeasterly monsoon. Following wind relaxation, a high sea level band builds up along the mid-shelf, and a northeastward current develops, having an obvious vertical barotropic structure. Momentum balance analysis indicates that an along-shelf pressure gradient provides the initial driving force for the SCSWC during the first few days following wind relaxation. The SCSWC subsequently reaches a steady quasi-geostrophic balance in the cross-shelf direction, mainly linked to sea level adjustment over the shelf. Lagrangian particle tracking experiments show that both the southwestward coastal current and slope current contribute to the northeastward movement of the SCSWC during winter monsoon relaxation.     

NUMERICAL MODELLING OF THREE-DIMENSION CHARACTERISTICS OF WIND-DRIVEN CURRENT IN THE BOHAI SEA

Three- dimension (3-D) wind-driven currents in the Bohai Sea in both winter and summer are calculated by using a 3- D barotropic steady model, and the results are consistent with observed flow char -acteristics. Based on the results, 3- D characteristics of flow, currents at different depths, compensated flow in the lower layer , long and narrow alongshore current, the area of upwelling and downwelling, main circulation in vertical profile, and the current in Bohai Strait are discussed.     

The Light Regime Effect on Triacylglycerol Accumulation of Isochrysis zhangjiangensis

Stress state of microalgal cells is caused under unfavorable conditions such as disordered light regime and depleted nitrogen. The stress state can impair photosynthetic efficiency, inhibit cell growth and result in the accumulation of triacylglycerol(TAG) from protective mechanisms. Continuous light or nitrogen starvation was applied on microalgae and performed effectively on inducing TAG production. To evaluate the light regime effect on inducing TAG production, the effect of different light regimes on nitrogen-starved Isochrysis zhangjiangensis was investigated in this work. The continuous light and nitrogen starvation elevated TAG content of biomass by 73% and 193%, respectively. Furthermore, the TAG accumulation of I. zhangjiangensis cell under nitrogen starvation decreased under aggravated stress from continuous illumination. Our results demonstrated that culturing the cells with 14 L: 10 D light regime under nitrogen starvation is the optimal mode to achieve maximal accumulation of TAG. A recovery in light regime was necessary for I. zhangjiangensis cultivation.     

深度学习预测GPS时间序列在探索门源MS6.4地震前兆中的应用

以2016-01-21门源M_S6.4地震为例,提出用深度学习预测的GPS时间序列研究地震前兆。用震中附近门源台（QHME）、民乐台（GSML）及古浪台（GSGL）无震时的GPS时间序列训练LSTM神经网络,得到高精度的GPS时间序列预测模型,再分别对该地区无震时和地震前一段时间的GPS时间序列进行回溯性预测。对比预测时间序列与真实时间序列发现,震前2条时间序列大部分的相似性指标比无震时低,说明震前预测时间序列与真实时间序列差异明显,同时考虑震前时间序列的趋势异常,认为出现了异常时段;3个台站分别在E、N、U方向出现多个异常日期,且不同台站具有相同的异常日期,说明探索到了地震前兆。     

Spurious dianeutral mixing in a global ocean model using spherical centroidal voronoi tessellations

In order to quantitatively evaluate the spurious dianeutral mixing in a global ocean model MPAS-Ocean(Model for Prediction Across Scales) using a spherical centroidal voronoi tessellations developed jointly by the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the Los Alamos National Laboratory in the United States, we choose z* vertical coordinate system in MPAS-Ocean, in which all physical mixing processes, such as convection adjustment and explicit diffusion parameter schemes, are omitted, using a linear equation of state. By calculating the Reference Potential Energy(RPE), front revolution position, time rate of RPE change, probability density function distribution and dimensionless parameter χ, from the perspectives of resolution, viscosity, Horizontal Grid Reynolds Number(HGRN), Re?, and momentum transmission scheme, using two ideal cases, overflow and baroclinic eddy channel, we qualitatively analyze the simulation results by comparison with the three non-isopycnal models in Ilicak et al.(2012), i.e., MITGCM, MOM, and ROMS. The results show that the spurious dianeutral mixing in the MPAS-Ocean increases over time. The spurious dianeutral transport is proportional to the HGRN directly and is reduced by increasing the lateral viscosity or using a finer resolution to control HGRN. When the HGRN is less than 10, spurious transport is reduced significantly. When using the proper viscosity closure, MPAS-Ocean performs better than MITGCM and MOM, closely to ROMS, in the 2D case without rotation, and much better than the above-mentioned three ocean models under the condition of 3D space with rotation due to the cell area difference between the hexagon cell and the quadrilateral cell with the same resolution. Both the Zalesak(1979) flux corrected transport scheme and Leith closure in MPAS-Ocean play an excellent role in reducing spurious dianeutral mixing. The performance of Leith scheme is preferable to the condition of three-dimensional baroclinic eddy.     

On the sources of the Taiwan Warm Current from the South China Sea

Historical hydrographic data across several sections in the South China Sea (SCS) and Taiwan Strait have been reconsidered. The year-around existence of the South China Sea Warm Current (SCSWC) along the shelf break off the Guangdong coast and the seemingly year-around southwestward current to the east of SCSWC are both evident in the data. The data also showed that the northward current in the Taiwan Strait seemed to be the extension of SCSWC. A barotropic numerical model is employed to explain some of the observed features. Reasonable simulation of the circulation in the northeast part of SCS has been found.     

Factors influencing the climatological mixed layer depth in the South China Sea: numerical simulations

The mixed layer depth (MLD) in the upper ocean is an important physical parameter for describing the upper ocean mixed layer. We analyzed several major factors influencing the climatological mixed layer depth (CMLD), and established a numerical simulation in the South China Sea (SCS) using the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS) with a high-resolution (1/12°×1/12°) grid nesting method and 50 vertical layers. Several ideal numerical experiments were tested by modifying the existing sea surface boundary conditions. Especially, we analyzed the sensitivity of the results simulated for the CMLD with factors of sea surface wind stress (SSWS), sea surface net heat flux (SSNHF), and the difference between evaporation and precipitation (DEP). The result shows that of the three factors that change the depth of the CMLD, SSWS is in the first place, when ignoring the impact of SSWS, CMLD will change by 26% on average, and its effect is always to deepen the CMLD; the next comes SSNHF (13%) for deepening the CMLD in October to January and shallowing the CMLD in February to September; and the DEP comes in the third (only 2%). Moreover, we analyzed the temporal and spatial characteristics of CMLD and compared the simulation result with the ARGO observational data. The results indicate that ROMS is applicable for studying CMLD in the SCS area.     

A FVCOM-based unstructured grid wave, current, sediment transport model, I. Model description and validation

An effort was made to couple FVCOM (a three-dimensional (3D),unstructured grid,Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model) and FVCOM-SWAVE (an unstructured grid,finite-volume surface wave model) for the study of nearshore ocean processes such as tides,circulation,storm surge,waves,sediment transport,and morphological evolution.The coupling between FVCOM and FVCOM-SWAVE was achieved through incorporating 3D radiation stress,wave-current-sediment-related bottom boundary layer,sea surface stress parameterizations,and morphology process.FVCOM also includes a 3D sediment transport module.With accurate fitting of irregular coastlines,the model provides a unique tool to study sediment dynamics in coastal ocean,estuaries,and wetlands where local geometries are characterized by inlets,islands,and intertidal marsh zones.The model was validated by two standard benchmark tests: 1) spectral waves approaching a mild sloping beach and 2) morphological changes of seabed in an idealized tidal inlet.In Test 1,model results were compared with both analytical solutions and laboratory experiments.A further comparison was also made with the structured grid Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS),which provides an insight into the performance of the two models with the same open boundary forcing.     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF THE MINDANAO EDDY AND TROPICAL CURRENTS OF PACIFIC OCEAN

Results of numerical simulation of currents in the western North Tropical Pacific Ocean by using a barotropic primitive equation model with fine horizontal resolution agreed well with observations and showed that the Mindanao Cyclonic Eddy located north of the equator and east of Mindanao Island exists during most of the year with monthly (and large seasonal) variations in scope . strength and central location . In June , an anticyclonic eddy occurs northeast of Halmahera Island, strengthens to maximum in August , exists until October and then disappears . The observed large-scale circulation systems such as the North Equatorial Current . the Mindanao Current and the North Equatorial Countercurrent are all very well reproduced in the simulations.     

基于生成对抗网络的动水驱动型滑坡状态识别方法

动水驱动型滑坡状态识别能更有效地辅助分析滑坡形变规律, 实现滑坡状态的准确识别对深入展开动水驱动型滑坡状态研究具有重要意义。针对目前动水驱动型滑坡突变状态研究较少, 难以获得相关特征, 从而导致状态识别性能不佳的问题, 提出了一种应用于动水驱动型滑坡状态识别的生成对抗网络学习方法。本方法通过构建滑坡状态监测数据矩阵, 依据少量数据样本设计合理的生成器网络完成对滑坡状态的数据扩增并设计判别器网络实现扩增数据的筛选, 通过对抗生成网络实现对滑坡状态的分类, 达到滑坡状态识别的目的。以三峡库区白水河滑坡为研究对象, 将降雨、库水位、深部位移和地表位移等多源监测数据进行了规范化处理, 设计生成器网络和对抗器网络完成了对滑坡状态数据的扩增, 设计滑坡状态识别生成对抗网络完成了对滑坡状态的分类和识别。结果表明, 生成对抗网络对滑坡状态识别具有较高的准确率。研究结果证实本方法能够对目标区域内的动水驱动型滑坡状态进行准确识别和分类, 可直接应用于工程实际。