基于Cloudsat探测的一次非典型东北冷涡结构及其降水

采用ERA-Interim气象分析资料、云顶亮温TBB资料、Cloudsat云雷达资料、降雨量资料等,对2009年6月10日至12日我国东北地区的一次冷涡天气过程进行研究,重现了该冷涡的精细三维结构和演变过程.分析表明冷涡发生前,东北亚地区处于南北双槽结构之间,随后北槽向赤道发展切断后形成东北冷涡.南槽背景的冷涡热力结构特殊,强冷空气集中在涡内西北象限,暖湿空气在东北象限,南部为相对中性空气,该配置导致北部暖锋强盛,西部冷锋仅在发展初期较强,冷涡过程没有经典挪威学派的气旋锢囚锋出现.冷涡发展初期,狭长冷舌快速入侵南下,冷舌前冷锋对流降水较强,冷舌后部左侧还有暖锋降水;冷涡发展后期,冷锋减弱,冷锋上的高层云停止降水,系统内主要为冷涡北部的暖锋雨层云降水;冷涡成熟后,中心辐合加强,有较强的对流性降水.     

影响东北初夏和盛夏降水年际变化的环流特征分析

东北地区是我国主要的粮食生产基地,而夏季是东北农作物的主要生长季,也是降水集中的季节,降水量的多少及其分布是影响东北地区粮食产量的重要因素之一.本文利用中国东北地区79个台站观测的月平均降水资料和ECMWF再分析资料,通过相关分析和回归分析,讨论了影响东北地区夏季5~8月降水年际变化的大尺度环流特征.结果发现：东北地区降水年际变化对应的环流异常在5,6月（初夏）和7,8月（盛夏）具有明显不同的特征;初夏降水异常以冷涡活动的影响为主,而盛夏则以东亚夏季风的影响为主.初夏,东北地区降水偏多年,东北地区西北部出现随高度向西倾斜的异常气旋性环流,东北地区冷涡活动频繁.盛夏,东北地区降水异常主要受到局地对流层高层东亚高空西风急流北移以及低层的西太平洋副热带高压西伸北进的影响.随着西太平洋副热带高压西北侧西南风异常的加强,向北输送到东北地区的水汽显著增多,东北地区盛夏降水偏多.此外,与7月份相比,8月东北降水除了受到夏季风的影响以外,还受到中高纬度东北亚阻塞高压的影响.     

东北冷涡引起的对流输送过程个例分析和数值模拟

平流层-对流层物质交换是影响全球大气成分收支的重要过程.过去的研究认为大尺度的交换过程在平流层-对流层物质交换中最为重要,但是近些年的研究表明,中小尺度过程对平流层-对流层物质交换也有重要贡献.本文利用OMI和MLS数据、ERA-Interim再分析资料,结合中尺度WRF模式综合分析了东北地区发生在冷涡前部和冷涡后部的两次强对流天气过程.结果表明：发生在冷涡前部暖锋云系中的强对流持续时间长,对流垂直尺度小,下平流层静力稳定度高;发生在冷涡后部的孤立强对流持续时间短,水平尺度较小,且在对流层顶附近,静力稳定度小,对流可穿出热力学对流层顶.从示踪物分布情况来看,两次强对流都可将示踪物输送到对流层顶附近,但是冷涡前部对流可将示踪物从边界层输送到整个对流层,而孤立对流是把示踪物输送到对流层顶,而不与自由对流层空气发生混合.

     

典型东北冷涡个例的平流层-对流层交换过程数值模拟研究

利用中尺度模式WRF对发生于2010年6月19~23日的我国东北地区一次典型冷涡过程开展高垂直分辨率数值模拟研究.在模式结果再现此次东北冷涡基本特征的基础上,进一步用Wei公式考察该冷涡引起的平流层-对流层质量交换的时空分布特征.分析结果表明,此次冷涡过程所引起的穿越对流层顶的质量交换总效应表现为平流层向对流层的净输送.在冷涡形成前期,即大型槽脊发展阶段,已经存在活跃的交换.在冷涡活动的整个过程中,槽后和冷涡移动方向的后部主要表现为空气质量由平流层向对流层的输送,而在槽前和冷涡移动方向的前部主要表现为由对流层向平流层的输送.这种空间分布形态主要是由对流层顶变化项决定,但由于其引起的向上、向下交换量作用相抵消,因此它对净交换量的贡献很小,而对此次过程净交换的贡献起决定性作用的是水平运动项.冷涡活动区域平均的总交换通量随时间的变化特征表现为三段:(1)在冷涡形成前期,存在较强的平流层空气向对流层输送过程;(2)随着冷涡的形成发展,总通量表现为TST-STT-TST波动趋势;(3)冷涡发展后期,又表现为平流层空气向对流层输送.     

与东北冷涡相伴的高空急流诱发平流层重力波的数值模拟研究

使用中尺度数值模式WRF-ARW,针对2010年6月发生在中国东北地区一例伴随对流层高空西风急流（位于~9 km高度）演变过程出现的平流层重力波活动特征开展了数值模拟. 事件发生期间,对流层区域环流处在一个东北冷涡系统的控制之下. 模拟结果再现了该东北冷涡的发展和维持过程,以及与之相伴的高空急流的特征. 模拟结果揭示出在急流区域上空的平流层中存在显著重力波活动现象. 分析结果显示,重力波活动与急流存在紧密联系,在水平方向上,重力波呈显著的二维结构,出现在急流出口区上部并逆背景流向西传播. 功率谱分析结果表明盛行波动具有~700 km水平尺度、9~12 h时间尺度以及4~5 km垂直波长. 由于急流的存在,造成其与平流层中下部之间存在显著的水平风速垂直切变,与切变相伴的耗散使得上传的重力波动量通量数值随着高度升高而递减. 同时,在18~20 km高度间出现的西风-东风转换带极大地抑制了波动在垂直方向的传播,形成显著动量通量沉积效应. 估算结果表明,在11~20 km高度之间,这种效应的整体作用相当于对该层背景流施加强度为0.86 m·s-1·day-1的动力阻曳.     

与东北冷涡相伴的高空急流诱发平流层重力波的数值模拟研究

使用中尺度数值模式WRF-ARW,针对2010年6月发生在中国东北地区一例伴随对流层高空西风急流（位于~9 km高度）演变过程出现的平流层重力波活动特征开展了数值模拟. 事件发生期间,对流层区域环流处在一个东北冷涡系统的控制之下. 模拟结果再现了该东北冷涡的发展和维持过程,以及与之相伴的高空急流的特征. 模拟结果揭示出在急流区域上空的平流层中存在显著重力波活动现象. 分析结果显示,重力波活动与急流存在紧密联系,在水平方向上,重力波呈显著的二维结构,出现在急流出口区上部并逆背景流向西传播. 功率谱分析结果表明盛行波动具有~700 km水平尺度、9~12 h时间尺度以及4~5 km垂直波长. 由于急流的存在,造成其与平流层中下部之间存在显著的水平风速垂直切变,与切变相伴的耗散使得上传的重力波动量通量数值随着高度升高而递减. 同时,在18~20 km高度间出现的西风-东风转换带极大地抑制了波动在垂直方向的传播,形成显著动量通量沉积效应. 估算结果表明,在11~20 km高度之间,这种效应的整体作用相当于对该层背景流施加强度为0.86 m·s^-1·day^-1的动力阻曳.     

气候变化对沅江流域径流影响研究

温室气体排放量增加造成气候变化,对全球资源环境产生重要影响.本文在水量平衡基础上,建立考虑气象要素和地形变化的月水文模型,利用实测径流资料对模型在时空尺度上进行验证.利用全球气候模型(GCMs)预测的未来气候变化情形,对处于湿润区的沅江流域径流过程进行预测.分析结果表明,该区域径流过程对降雨和气温变化十分敏感.根据英国Hadcm2模型对本世纪中叶气候变化预测结果,沅江流域未来年降雨量减少0.43%气温升高1.55℃,丰水期降雨增加,而枯水期将有较大幅度减少.年径流量相应减少6.8%,丰水期径流量增大11%,枯水期径流减少47%,不利于防洪和水资源开发利用.     

喜马拉雅山朗塘流域降水中δ~(18)O的变化

喜马拉雅山朗塘流域坚景和亚拉降水中δ18O的变化以及δ18O与降水量的关系分析. 在天气尺度下, δ18O随降水量的变化具有较大的离散性. 两者之间的相关系数随时间而变化. 在季节尺度下, 坚景的δ18O/降水量变化率小于天气尺度下的变化率. 在雨季, 由于大气水汽和降水中稳定同位素成分基本保持平衡,降水的蒸发富集作用较轻. 从而降水中平均稳定同位素的大小并不依赖于取样间隔. 降水量效应的模拟结果显示, 朗塘流域的降水并非来自于低纬度海洋水汽的初始凝结. 受水汽在爬越喜马拉雅山时强烈的洗涤作用(rainout), 降水中稳定同位素成分被极大地衰减.     

非点源污染对太湖上游西苕溪流域水环境的影响

水资源短缺是全球性关注的问题,水质恶化更加剧了这一问题的严重性,定量研究水质变化及其影响凶素可为治理水环境提供基础依据．与实测数据及综合污染指数的对比表明,水质指数能够合理反映水质的变化程度和时空变化趋势．利用西苕溪流域1996-2000年水质监测数据的研究结果如下：西苕溪流域水质的空间变化趋势是自上游至下游逐渐恶化,时间变化的总体趋势是逐年转好;点污染源得到有效控制年份(1999年)的水质指数比以前年份(1996-1998年)有所提高但幅度不大,说明非点源污染是影响西苕溪流域水质的重要因素;流域水污染的主要形式是氮、磷污染,其主要非点源是农田、经济竹林和城镇径流及居民生活污水等．     

初夏西北太平洋副高东西变动对中国南部降水东西差异的影响

西北太平洋副热带高压（以下简称副高）是影响中国气候的大尺度环流系统,为了进一步了解副高对中国气候的影响,本文利用站点观测资料和大气环流再分析资料,通过资料诊断分析和数值模拟方法,探讨了6月副高东西变动对中国南部降水的影响,以及影响副高东西变动的前期海洋因子.结果表明副高东西变动对中国西南和华南地区降水的影响明显不同：副高偏东有利于降水西南偏多而华南偏少,偏西则降水变化刚好相反.其原因与副高东西变化引起的环流差异有关,华南降水与副高东（西）变动时西太平洋地区副高西北侧的东北（西南）风异常以及东亚中低纬度地区异常经向波列的变化直接有关,而西南降水异常不仅与副高东西变动在东南亚地区引起的纬向风异常有关,与青藏高原大地形动力作用对副高北侧异常纬向风的变化也有十分密切的联系.此外,副高东西变动时影响西南和华南地区的水汽来源不同,影响西南的水汽主要来源于赤道印度洋80°E附近越赤道气流,而影响华南的水汽主要来源于副高南侧偏东气流从西北太平洋地区输送的水汽.进一步分析发现前期冬春季热带西北太平洋和赤道西太平洋海温变化的偶极差异与后期初夏副高东西变动有密切联系,冬春季西北太平洋暖海温和赤道西太平洋冷海温变化有利于后期初夏副高偏西,相反则有利于副高偏东,数值模拟结果在一定程度证实了资料诊断分析结果.

     

Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation extrema in the Haihe River Basin,China

In this article, we investigated the variability of precipitation conditions in the Haihe River basin (HRB) during 1961–2010 by analyzing four daily precipitation scenarios. These scenarios were set with the values of, equal to 0 mm/day, 10–20 mm/day, 20–50 mm/day, and greater than 50 mm/day, which were denoted as P0, P10, P20, and P50, respectively. Results indicate that the mean values of daily precipitation decline, and its fluctuation becomes weak with years in HRB. The contour of daily precipitation with the mean value of 1.4 mm/day moves more than 100 km toward southeast in the basin from 1960s to 2000s. The variations of four precipitation scenarios show difference. The Tianjin and Langfang cities were the P0 drought center in HRB after 1980s, and the days and regions without precipitation increase with years. The magnitude of P10 extrema shows no significant changes over the last 50 years, but the rainfall centers vary with areas in HRB. The magnitude of P20 extrema shows no obvious changes in 1961–2000 but increases in 2000s. The magnitude of P50 extrema obviously declines in the last 50 years, with the rainfall center moving from northeast to south of HRB. Urbanization impacts are reflected in some cities in 1980s and 1990s, but after 2000, the urbanization impacts were not clearly detected due to the significant precipitation decreases in HRB. In summary, precipitation decrease is caused by the decreases of P50 extrema rather than P10 and P20 extrema in HRB, which would be favorable for the flood resources utilization through ample‐low flow operations over space. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial and temporal variations of precipitation in Haihe River Basin,China: six decades of measurements

This study aims to determine temporal trends and spatial distribution of the annual and monthly precipitation in the Haihe River Basin, China, during 1951–2008. A significant decreasing trend was observed for the annual precipitation, mainly attributed to the abrupt decrease in the flood‐season precipitation (June–September) around the year of 1979. No significant trend was revealed for precipitation within Period I of 1951–1979 and Period II of 1980–2008. Results of this study indicated that the relative contributions of the flood‐season precipitation decreased temporally with time and spatially with elevation. This study also identified a potential movement of storm centers from east to west portions of the basin. In addition, analysis on the precipitation anomalies also suggested a redistribution of the non‐flood season precipitation over the study area. Compared with the west portion of the basin, generally, the east received relatively more precipitation during the non‐flood season, while similar trend of precipitation redistribution was not observed in the flood season. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variations and statistical probability characteristic analysis of extreme precipitation events under climate change in Haihe River Basin,China

The magnitude and frequency of regional extreme precipitation events may have variability under climate change. This study investigates the time–space variability and statistical probability characteristics of extreme precipitation under climate change in the Haihe River Basin. Hydrological alteration diagnosis methods are implemented to detect the occurrence time, style and degree of alteration such as trend and jump in the extreme precipitation series, and stationarity and serial independence are tested prior to frequency analysis. Then, the historical extreme precipitation frequency and spatio‐temporal variations analyses are conducted via generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. Furthermore, the occurrence frequency of extreme precipitation events in future is analysed on the basis of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change multi‐mode climate models under different greenhouse gases emission scenarios (SRES‐A2, A1B and B1). Results indicate that (1) in the past, alteration of extreme precipitation mainly occurred in the area north of 38°N. Decreasing trends of extreme precipitation are detected at most stations, whereas jump alteration is not obvious at most stations. (2) Spatial variation of estimated extreme precipitation under different return periods shows similarity. Bounded by the Taihang Mountain–Yan Mountain, extreme rainfall in the Haihe River Basin gradually reduces from the southeast to the northwest, which is consistent with the geographical features of the Haihe River Basin. (3) In the future, extreme precipitation with return period 5–20 years accounts for a significant portion of the total occurrence times. The frequency of extreme precipitation events has an increase trend under A1B and A2 scenarios. The total occurrence times of extreme precipitation under A1B senario are not more than that under B1 senario until the 2030s. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regional sea-surface temperatures explain spatial and temporal variation of summer precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River

ABSTRACT

The summer precipitation (June–September) in the source region of the Yellow River accounts for about 70% of the annual total, playing an important role in water availability. This study divided the source region of the Yellow River into homogeneous zones based on precipitation variability using cluster analysis. Summer precipitation trends and teleconnections with global sea-surface temperatures (SST) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) from 1961 to 2010 were investigated by Mann-Kendall test and Pearson product-moment correlation analysis. The results show that the northwest part (Zone 1) had a non-significantly increasing trend, and the middle and southeast parts (zones 2 and 3) that receive the most precipitation displayed a statistically significant decreasing trend for summer precipitation. The summer precipitation in the whole region showed statistically significant negative correlations with the central Pacific SST for 0–4 month lag and with the Southern Indian and Atlantic oceans SST for 5–8 month lag. Analyses of sub-regions reveal intricate and complex correlations with different SST areas that further explain the summer precipitation variability. The SOI had significant positive correlations, mainly for 0–2 months lag, with summer precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River. It is seen that El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have an influence on summer precipitation, and the predominant negative correlations indicate that higher SST in equatorial Pacific areas corresponding to El Niño coincides with less summer precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Gerten     

Temporal trend in surface water resources in Tianjin in the Haihe River Basin,China

Considering the highly stochastic nature of the hydrological process, wavelet transform was used to analyse the characteristics, trends and causes of variations in annual run‐off (1917–2006) into Tianjin in the Haihe River Basin. Run‐off was steadily declining due to climate change and human activity and a significant decrease in run‐off along the time series was discovered around the 1960s; however, the change in precipitation was insignificant. The time series of run‐off was heavily influenced by a nonlinear feature and mainly influenced by the natural climate before the 1960s, but after the 1970s the change remained steady, with an annual run‐off that fluctuated between 0·2 and 48·4 mm and was maintained at a low level (9·3 mm). The main cause of the run‐off decline in the 1960s was that more than 1900 reservoirs with a total holding capacity of up to 83 mm were constructed in the upper and middle reaches, which controlled 85% of the total run‐off. These projects have played an active role in the reservoir action and water conservation since they were implemented. At the beginning of the 1980s, the demand for water resources increased with the rapid growth of the population and the large‐scale development of industry and agriculture in the Haihe River Basin, which caused a reduction in run‐off into Tianjin. Overall, the hydrological effects of water storage projects regulating river run‐off were beneficial to flood control, but might cause a serious reduction in river run‐off into Tianjin and the lower reaches of the basin. In addition, a decrease in annual precipitation and changes in temperature in Northern China have also had an adverse effect on natural run‐off, which caused a greater decline in water resources, but this did not have a powerful influence on the overall decline in the run‐off. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

长江流域降水极值时间序列的分布特征

在1960-2005年长江流域147气象观测站汛期4-9月逐日降水资料基础上,通过计算逐站大于95th强降水及其间隔天数、小于1.27mm/d的持续天数,分析长江流域降水极值时间序列的时空分布特征,并建立概率分布模式.研究发现,长江上游四川盆地附近及中下游鄱阳湖流域东南部是汛期强降水中心,也是长江流域强降水最集中发生的地区.汛期降水强度小于1.27mm/d的天数,在上游干流、岷沱江流域、乌江上游地区为多.但此处干旱持续天数最短,干旱形式并不严重.而在金沙江上、下游,洞庭湖流域,鄱阳湖流域东南部支流及下游干流区干旱持续天数较长.长江流域大于95th强降水的间隔天数与小于1.27mm/d的干旱持续天数服从Weibull-Ⅱ型分布.分布参数变化的模式较准确的反映降水极值时间序列的时空变化特征.     

Toxicity assessment of metals in sediment from the lower reaches of the Haihe River Basin in China

The aqueous environmental quality of the Haihe River Basin is crucial for the ecological health of local catchments and the Bohai Sea. For the routine management neglected sediment tests and no legitimate tool supported the toxicity evaluation yet, one supplementary monitoring was implemented to examine the occurrence and toxic level of sediment metals in the lower reaches of the Haihe River Basin in 2009. Both world-widely used consensus-based sediment quality guidelines and China's environmental quality standard for soils (EQSS) were used as assessment tools. Cu, Zn, As, Hg, Cd, and Pb were detected in all 24 samples, while Cr was detected in 18 samples. Assessment results showed 9 samples were toxic and the most dominant toxic element was As. Although the river water quality is getting better, sediment metals have accumulated over thirty years due to continuous industrial development, with toxicity far beyond safety limitations. The highest toxicity levels were encountered in Binhai New Area, suggesting three rivers should be given priority for restoration. It is found that EQSS is also applicable for sediment toxicity assessment until a dedicated tool for Haihe River Basin is available, except for that EQSS is too conservative for Pb.     

Statistical downscaling of reference evapotranspiration in Haihe River Basin: applicability assessment and application to future projection

Future changes in reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) are of increasing importance in assessing the potential impacts on hydrology and water resources systems of more pronounced climate change. This study assesses the applicability of the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) in projecting ET₀, and investigates the seasonal and spatial patterns of future ET₀ based on general circulation models (GCMs) across the Haihe River Basin. The results indicate that SDSM can downscale ET₀ well in term of different basin-averaged measures for the HadCM3 and CGCM3 GCMs. HadCM3 has a much superior capability in capturing inter-annual variability compared to CGCM3 and thus is chosen as the sole model to assess the changes in future ET₀. There are three homogeneous sub-regions of the Haihe River Basin: Northwest, Northeast and Southeast. Change points are detected at around 2050 and 2080 under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. The Northwest is revealed to have a slight to strong increase in ET₀, while the Northeast and the Southeast tend to experience a pattern change from decrease to increase in ET₀.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman

ASSOCIATE EDITOR J. Thompson     

Oscillation characteristics of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley and relevant climate background

Based on the summer precipitation data from the Huaihe River valley and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River from 1922 to 2007,we analyzed the interannual and interdecadal oscillation and probability distribution characteristics of summer precipitation in the Huaihe River valley during the same period,using the wavelet transform and generalized extreme distribution methods.Whereby,we studied the climate background of East Asia Summer Monsoon (EASM),Sea Surface Temperature (SST),East Asia teleco...     

青藏高原冬春积雪对长江流域夏季降水的影响

本文根据青藏高原主体72个气象站日测资料建立的积雪序列分析了高原积雪对长江流域夏季降水的影响,高原冬春积雪异常与长江流域汛期特别是6、7月降水呈显著的正相关关系.青藏高原冬春多雪年,随后夏季多出现Ⅱ、Ⅲ类雨型,长江中游和下游鄱阳湖地区多偏涝;青藏高原冬春少雪年,随后夏季多出现Ⅰ、Ⅱ类雨型,长江下游鄱阳湖地区多偏旱,长江中游多正常偏旱.多(少)雪年东亚洲大陆上空的气温明显偏低(高),而大陆南部海洋上空的气温明显偏高(低),降低(增加)了陆海温差,延迟(促进)了东亚夏季风的到来,一定程度上减弱(加强)东亚季风的强度.多(少)雪随后夏季,由于南亚夏季风和东亚夏季风都明显减弱(增强),对流层中低层从孟加拉湾吹向中南半岛的西南风减弱(增强),我国大陆东部的南风也明显减弱(增强),西太副高偏南(北);青藏高原东南侧到中南半岛北部的上升运动较弱(强),长江中下游及其以东洋面上升运动较强(弱),长江中下游地区多(少)雨.