2008年汶川MS8.0地震前定点形变高频异常特征的研究

本文以中国大陆西部定点形变观测资料作为研究对象, 采用S变换和超限率时频分析法对其进行了处理和分析。 研究结果表明: 在2008年汶川M_S8.0地震前, 距离震中600 km范围内的定点形变个别台站观测到高频异常, 异常持续时间较长; 距离震中300 km范围的个别台站临震高频异常非常显著; 并且不同的定点形变观测手段对高频信号的响应不同, 地倾斜测项临震前高频异常形态较地应变测项更为清晰灵敏。 同时S变换和超限率两种方法处理结果具有较好的一致性, 表明本文提取到的高频异常可信度较高。     

汶川8.0级地震前定点形变异常特征

对汶川8.0级地震震中周围800 km范围内近50个定点形变台站资料作小波变换处理,发现从震前3个月开始,30个台站资料处理结果显示有异常出现.距震中200 km以内的台站,其异常信息主要集中在小波分解的细节部分第6层;距震中200-550 km范围内的台站,其异常主要集中在第7层或第8层;距震中550-650 km范围内的台站,其异常主要集中在第8层或第9层.表明异常信息的频率随着各台站距离震中的远近呈现由低到高的特征.     

汶川8.0级地震前定点形变异常特征di

对汶川8.0级地震震中周围800km范围内近50个定点形变台站资料作小波变换处理,发现从震前3个月开始,30个台站资料处理结果显示有异常出现．距震中200km以内的台站,其异常信息主要集中在小波分解的细节部分第6层;距震中200——550km范围内的台站,其异常主要集中在第7层或第8层;距震中550——650km范围内的台站,其异常主要集中在第8层或第9层．表明异常信息的频率随着各台站距离震中的远近呈现由低到高的特征．     

关于汶川8.0级地震前电磁扰动异常的讨论

通过对汶川8.0级地震前四川金河台电磁扰动数据变化的研究,结果显示:①电磁扰动0.001～1 Hz在震前每天06:00～22:00出现非脉冲性高值波动变化,在12:00和18:00达到最大;1～10 Hz在2008年1～3月出现与超低频类似的高值变化,最大幅度为300 mV; 10～20Hz无明显异常.②分析了电磁扰动...     

汶川MS8.0地震的前兆异常时空演化过程及其力学分析

为了研究2008年汶川M_S8.0地震前10年前兆异常的时空演化过程, 采用地震破裂区的几何中心和余震区椭圆中心线为中心的两种方法计算前兆异常的震中距。 结果表明: 在汶川地震前2年左右前兆异常逐渐增多; 近源区(震源2倍左右尺度)异常测项比大于25%, 远源区中震源3～5倍尺度区域的异常测项比为17%～24%。 前兆异常时空演化过程存在三个不同的变化阶段, 即α阶段(包括α₁和α₂, 震前700～3000 d)的异常主要分布在余震区以外的西南地区和西北地区, 表现为远源区与近源区的前兆均存在向外扩展的特点; β阶段(震前300～700 d)的异常分布在余震区西南部和北部地区, 表现为大范围出现异常; γ阶段(包括γ₁和γ₂, 震前300 d内)的异常分布范围较广, 异常主要分布在余震区的西南部和东北部地区, 表现为远源区的异常向震中收缩过程(γ₁)和近源区的异常向外扩展的过程(γ₂)。 地震孕育过程的实验研究和力学分析表明, 地震孕育过程中前兆异常的三阶段特征可能是受孕震体的控制, 是孕震过程中的一种表现形式, 是一个地震孕育过程中的普遍性特点, 对地震预测具有一定指导作用。     

汶川MS8.0地震前云南地区显著前兆观测异常分析

汶川M_S8.0地震前云南地区出现了显著的前兆观测异常. 该文从大地震的孕育范围出发分析认为这些地震前兆异常可能与汶川M_S8.0地震有关, 并认识到前兆观测出现的显著极值异常可能是M_S≥7.0大地震的前兆; 有学者认为大震震源区没有或较少出现前兆观测趋势异常是大地震的共性特征, 汶川M_S8.0地震的前兆观测异常也是相同的; 地震前兆观测异常开始和结束时间是多样的, 前兆异常的分布是复杂的, 因此利用震后总结的共性特征, 在震前对汶川M_S8.0地震作出预测是困难的.      

地球自转减速对2008年汶川MS8.0地震的作用

本文将地球看成是一个质量分布均匀的球对称弹性球体, 给出了地球以匀角速率旋转情况下产生的应力场的解析表达式, 计算了地球匀速自转时在2008年汶川M_S8.0地震发震断层面上产生的应力, 分析了地球自转速率变化对汶川地震发震断层的影响。 结果表明, 地球自转减速有利于汶川地震发生。 如果地球自转减速对汶川地震的发生起到了触发作用, 那么在震前震区或许会出现中小地震发生受到地球自转减速触发的现象。 分析表明, 从2006年起汶川地震震中附近地区M_L≥2.7地震受到地球自转减速的触发, 这从另一个侧面说明了地球自转减速对汶川地震的发生具有促进作用。     

2018年永清MS 4.3地震前易县地震台形变异常分析

2018年2月12日18：31：36河北省廊坊市永清县M_S 4.3地震发生前,易县地震台SS-Y型铟瓦棒伸缩仪和DSQ型水管倾斜仪记录出现不同程度的异常,从异常形态起始及持续时间、异常幅度和发震时刻进行分析,发现二者相对应,认为此次异常应为永清地震震前异常。     

对汶川8.0级地震前四川地区地电地磁观测异常的分析与思考

研究了汶川8.0级地震前四川地区模拟和数字地电、地磁类观测资料。四川地区地电6台站的26测项模拟观测,在汶川8.0级地震前仅出现1项中期异常,异常台站比1/6=0.17;异常测项比为1/26=0.04。对"九五"到"十五"期间四川地区数字化改造或数字地电观测资料,没有分析检测出异常项。四川地区6个台的地磁垂直分量整点值的日变形态在震前2天出现波谷分裂的异常现象,由于平时出现此类异常频繁,若用于预测无统计学的显著意义。可见汶川8.0级地震前四川地区地电和地磁类观测资料结果出现的异常现象比例是极低的。同时对疑似或有争议的异常测项进行分析说明,对汶川8.0级地震前电磁类异常少的原因进行了讨论。     

基于PSInSAR的2008年汶川MS8.0地震震后形变场特征

2008年5月12日汶川M_S8.0地震造成了巨大的同震形变, 地表破裂带分布广泛。 为了研究汶川地震震后形变的分布特征, 收集了震后2008年5月28日至2010年9月15日的多时相ENVISAT ASAR数据, 该数据包括两个相邻条带, 能够覆盖震后形变区域。 使用基于单一主图像的PSInSAR处理技术分别对两个条带进行处理并拼接, 获得了震后时序形变图和年平均形变速率图。 研究结果显示, 龙门山断裂带两侧的震后形变分布特征明显不同, 断裂带西北盘形变量表现为LOS向隆升, 最大累积形变约为26 mm, 最大形变速率约为17±7 mm/a; 断裂带东南盘形变表现为LOS向沉降, 形变量较小, 最大累积形变约为-10 mm, 最大形变速率约为-5 mm/a。 汶川地震后的形变特征反映了龙门山断裂在此段具有逆冲为主兼有走滑分量的活动性质, 本文研究结果与震后GPS观测结果在形变趋势和量级方面具有较好的一致性。     

Characteristics of seismic activity before the MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake

The characteristics of spatio-temporal seismicity evolution before the Wenchuan earthquake are studied. The results mainly involve in the trend abnormal features and its relation to the Wenchuan earthquake. The western Chinese mainland and its adjacent area has been in the seismically active period since 2001, while the seismic activity shows the obvious quiescence of M≥?7.0, M≥?6.0 and M?≥5.0 earthquakes in Chinese mainland. A quiescence area with M?≥7.0 has been formed in the middle of the North-South seismic zone since 1988, and the Wenchuan earthquake occurred just within this area. There are a background seismicity gap of M?≥5.0 earthquakes and a seismogenic gap of M_L?≥4.0 earthquakes in the area of Longmenshan fault zone and its vicinity prior to the Wenchuan earthquake. The seismic activity obviously strengthened and a doughnut-shape pattern of M?≥4.6 earthquakes is formed in the middle and southern part of the North-South seismic zone after the 2003 Dayao, Yunnan, earthquake. Sichuan and its vicinity in the middle of the doughnut-shape pattern show abnormal quiescence. At the same time, the seismicity of earthquake swarms is significant and shows heterogeneity in the temporal and spatial process. A swarm gap appears in the M4.6 seismically quiet area, and the Wenchuan earthquake occurred just on the margin of the gap. In addition, in the short term before the Wenchuan earthquake, the quiescence of earthquake with M_L≥?4.0 appears in Qinghai-Tibet block and a seismic belt of M_L?≥3.0 earthquakes, with NW striking and oblique with Longmenshan fault zone, is formed.     

2008年汶川8.0级地震前地下流体异常回顾与统计特征分析

地震地下流体在地震预测研究与震情跟踪中发挥着重要作用.本文基于中国地震地下流体前兆观测台网所涉及的资料范围,系统收集了2008年四川汶川8.0级地震的可能地下流体前兆异常,分析了这些异常的空间展布、时空演化以及形态等总体变化特征.结果表明,收集到的68项异常均位于10^-8应变量范围内,59项异常位于汶川8.0级地震3倍破裂区（约900 km）范围内,占异常总数的87%,这与国内外已发表的地下流体前兆异常空间分布范围和震级之间的关系相符,说明汶川8.0级巨大地震的前兆观测范围至少包含该地震3倍破裂尺度甚至更大;异常出现时间总体呈现出临近地震异常数量增多的特点,但异常数量并非逐渐增多,而是在震前5个月和1个月突然增多;异常形态特征复杂,水氡和水位总体呈现出趋势性异常特征,水温总体表现出短临变化特征,主要表现为震前1—3个月突升、突降或波动异常变化.此外,本文还结合国内外已发表的地震地下流体前兆异常以及地震孕育理论,讨论了异常的空间分布、时间尺度与未来震中的关系,这对深入认识地下流体前兆异常及产生机理都具有重要的现实意义和科学价值.     

Ground motion attenuation of MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake

The great M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake has been the most destructive earthquake since 1949 in China. The earthquake occurred no more than half a year after the establishment of the National Strong Motion Observation Network System (NSMONS) of China; what is more, the epicenter was located in the area with dense strong motion observation stations so that a large number of strong motion records of the main shock were obtained. In this paper, 501 strong motion records from 167 observation stations are utilized to establish the ground motion attenuation relations in three directions in the range of fault distance less than 600 km. The result shows the difference of seismic motion attenuation in two horizontal directions is insignificant. It is the first time that strong-motion records are used to establish the ground motion attenuation relations of the M_S8.0 earthquake in China.

     

Fast assessment of earthquake loss and its application to the 2008 MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake

The paper introduces firstly the seismic loss assessment method based on macro-economic indicators and new vulnerability models determined by the data from the on-site damage and loss survey to earthquakes occurred in China during the last two decades. The fast assessment for the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake with M_S8.0 is given based on an empirical intensity attenuation relationship. Compared with the assessment based on the practical seismic intensity map of the event according to the on-site investigation, the result demonstrates the usability of the seismic vulnerability models introduced in the paper. In addition, it is indicated that the main uncertainty of losses in the fast loss assessment comes from the uncertainty of the estimation of seismic ground motion.     

汶川地震前地震活动特征的普遍性及其机理探讨

汶川地震前地震活动较为显著的异常是：1970—2008年汶川地震前,从云南北部至甘青川交界形成规模巨大的5.5级以上地震活动增强区（或称环形分布）;1970—1999年围绕龙门山断裂带形成5级以上地震背景空区,汶川地震发生在增强区内的背景地震空区里;2001—2007年形成M_L4.0以上地震孕震空区,震前1年孕震空区内部及其两端相继发生多次M_L 4.0~5.0地震,空区打破.上述地震活动增强区、背景空区和孕震空区是大地震前普遍出现的现象.为对比分析,本文系统研究了2001年以来我国大陆及邻区4次M_S≥7.8级地震和全球10次M_W≥8.0级地震前类似地震活动异常,并给出统计特征.结果显示：地震增强区规模为850~2700 km,持续时间13—38年,增强区长轴对数与主震震级呈正相关关系.增强区与余震区规模之比为2.3~7.7,其对数与主震震级呈负相关.背景空区长轴300~1100 km,持续时间10—32年,其长轴对数与主震震级呈正相关关系.孕震空区长轴为370~780 km,持续时间1—7年,孕震空区长轴对数与主震震级呈正相关关系.对于板内地震,构成增强区的最低震级为5.0级或5.5级,构成背景空区和孕震空区的最低震级分别为5.0级和4.0级.而对于板间地震,构成增强区和背景空区的最低震级为6.0级或6.5级,构成孕震空区的最低震级为5.0级或5.5级.基于坚固体地震孕育模型,认为地震活动增强区的环形分布是由于震源区的破裂强度高于周围介质造成的,地震孕育过程中体应变的范围和强度存在逐渐增大和变小的过程,这是地震活动增强区出现三阶段特征的原因.从包体弹性理论可以推导出增强区尺度的对数与主震震级、增强区与震源体比值的对数与主震震级存在线性关系.

     

Short-term and imminent geomagnetic anomalies of the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake and exploration on earthquake forecast

The diurnal variation of the geomagnetic vertical component is exhibited mainly by changes of phase and amplitude before strong earthquakes. Based on data recorded by the network of geomagnetic observatories in China for many years, the anomalous features of the appearance time of the minima of diurnal variations (i.e, low-point time) of the geomagnetic vertical components and the variation of their spatial distribution (i.e, phenomena of low-point displacement) have been studied before the Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake. The strong aftershocks after two months' quiescence of M6 aftershocks of the M_S8.0 event were forecasted based on these studies. There are good correlativities between these geomagnetic anomalies and occurrences of earthquakes. It has been found that most earthquakes occur near the boundary line of sudden changes of the low-point time and generally within four days before or after the 27th or 41st day counting from the day of the appearance of the anomaly. In addition, the imminent anomalies in diurnal-variation amplitudes near the epicentral areas have also been studied before the Wenchuan earthquake.     

Spatio-temporal variation and focal mechanism of the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake sequence

Based on abundant aftershock sequence data of the Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake on May 12, 2008, we studied the spatio-temporal variation process and segmentation rupture characteristic. Dense aftershocks distribute along Longmenshan central fault zone of NE direction and form a narrow strip with the length of 325 km and the depth between several and 40 km. The depth profile (section of NW direction) vertical to the strike of aftershock zone (NE direction) shows anisomerous wedgy distribution characteristic of aftershock concentrated regions; it is related to the force form of the Longmenshan nappe tectonic belt. The stronger aftershocks could be divided into northern segment and southern segment apparently and the focal depths of strong aftershocks in the 50 km area between northern segment and southern segment are shallower. It seems like 'to be going to rupture' segment. We also study focal mechanisms and segmentation of strong aftershocks. The principal compressive stress azimuth of aftershock area is WNW direction and the faulting types of aftershocks at southern and northern segment have the same proportion. Because aftershocks distribute on different secondary faults, their focal mechanisms present complex local tectonic stress field. The faulting of seven strong earthquakes on the Longmenshan central fault is mainly characterized by thrust with the component of right-lateral strike-slip. Meantime six strong aftershocks on the Longmenshan back-range fault and Qingchuan fault present strike-slip faulting. At last we discuss the complex segmentation rupture mechanism of the Wenchuan earthquake.     

基于GRACE卫星和地表流动重力的汶川MS 8.0地震前重力时空变化

利用GRACE卫星重力场模型和地表流动重力观测资料,计算2008年汶川M_S 8.0地震发生前6年的重力变化,对卫星和流动重力段差结果与卫星重力反映的重力场动态变化特征进行研究,结果表明：①GRACE卫星重力段差受滤波半径影响显著,与地表流动重力观测结果相比,在重力变化数值上差异较大,在变化率上较为一致;②在汶川地震孕育阶段,川滇地区重力等值线呈“增大—减速增大—减小”的特征,震前2年形成近似垂直于龙门山断裂带的重力变化梯度带。     

The seismicity and tectonic stress field characteristics of the Longmenshan fault zone before the Wenchuan MS8.0 earthquake

The seismicity of Longmenshan fault zone and its vicinities before the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake is studied. Based on the digital seismic waveform data observed from regional seismic networks and mobile stations, the focal mechanism solutions are determined. Our analysis results show that the seismicities of Longmenshan fault zone before the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake were in stable state. No obvious phenomena of seismic activity intensifying appeared. According to focal mechanism solutions of some small earthquakes before the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, the direction of principal compressive stress P-axis is WNW-ESE. The two hypocenter fault planes are NE-striking and NW-striking. The plane of NE direction is among N50°?70°E, the dip angles of fault planes are 60°?70° and it is very steep. The faultings of most earthquakes are dominantly characterized by dip-slip reverse and small part of faultings present strike-slip. The azimuths of principal compressive stress, the strikes of source fault planes and the dislocation types calculated from some small earthquakes before the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake are in accordance with that of the main shock. The average stress field of micro-rupture along the Longmenshan fault zone before the great earthquake is also consistent with that calculated from main shock. Zipingpu dam is located in the east side 20 km from the initial rupture area of the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The activity increment of small earthquakes in the Zipingpu dam is in the period of water discharging. The source parameter results of the small earthquakes which occurred near the initial rupture area of the 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake indicate that the focal depths are 5 to 14 km and the source parameters are identical with that of earthquake.