从波速比变化看汶川与芦山地震的孕震过程

为研究汶川和芦山地震的孕育过程,利用单台单震法,将地震丛发区内发生的地震粗略视为“广义重复地震”,系统分析龙门山断裂带及附近区域1990～2015年波速比时空变化过程。结果发现,波速比在汶川地震前降低,芦山地震后明显恢复。对于龙门山断裂带北段的地震丛发区,大部分台站波速比的同步时间变化过程可分为两个阶段：一是在汶川地震前,2000年～2008-05波速比出现异常降低-回返-发震过程,低值异常持续时间约8 a。汶川地震后,波速比快速回升。二是2010年开始再次显现波速比持续性稳定下降,在2013-04降至最低点,发生芦山地震,震后波速比再次快速回升到正常值。对于龙门山断裂带南段及附近的地震丛发区,大部分台站波速比的同步时间变化从2000年～2013-04波速比维持长时间的异常低值状态,低值持续时间约13 a,直至2013-04芦山地震后波速比快速回升。不论是龙门山南段还是北段,均可看到波速比基本一致的变化,2000～2013年的异常降低-恢复过程,显示了汶川8级地震与芦山7级地震的整体性和差异性,孕震过程长达14 a。由此可见,汶川地震和芦山地震很可能是同一动力学过程孕育的两次先后发生的强震。     

GiT-based structural geologic feature analysis of the southern segment of Longmenshan fault zone for earthquake evidence

The Longmenshan fault is a thrust fault which runs along the base of the Longmen Mountains in Sichuan province,southwestern China.The southern segment of the fault had two distinct responses to the Ms 8 Wenchuan and Ms 7 Lushan earthquakes.This study determines characteristics of the structural geology of the Longmenshan fault to evaluate how it influenced the two aforementioned earthquakes.This research was done within a Geoinformation Technologies(Gi T) environment based on multi-source remote sensing and crustal movement data extracted from the Global Positioning System(GPS).The spatial distribution of the southern segment of the Longmenshan fault zone was comprehensively analyzed to study both earthquakes.The study revealed that the Wenchuanand Lushan earthquakes occurred on two relatively independent faults.In addition,there was a nearly constant-velocity crustal movement zone between the two epicenters that probably had a compressive stress with slow motion.Furthermore,the central fault and a mountain back fault gradually merged from north to south.The Lushan earthquake was not an aftershock of the Wenchuan earthquake.The research showed that fault zones within 30–50 km of State Highway 318 are intensive and complex.In addition,crustal movement velocity decreased rapidly,with a strong multi-directional shear zone.Thus,activity in that zone was likely stronger than in the northern part over the medium to long term.     

沂沭断裂带及邻区双差层析成像

利用双差层析成像方法,选取2008-10～2017-12山东及周边区域182个地震台站记录的1190个近震观测资料,对沂沭断裂带及邻区的震源位置和三维速度结构进行联合反演.结果表明,沂沭断裂带内部介质速度结构具有明显的不均匀性,并呈现分段特性;在郯城和莒县中上地壳内存在明显的低速结构;胶南地块总体速度低于鲁西地块;鲁西...     

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汶川、芦山和康定地震造成的鲜水河断裂带库仑应力变化及对地震危险性的影响

通过估算汶川、芦山和康定地震造成的鲜水河断裂带库仑应力变化,并与其长期构造应力加载速率进行比较,分析3次地震对鲜水河断裂带未来地震危险性的影响。结果显示,汶川和芦山地震对康定地震的发生分别起到促进和推迟作用;3次地震造成的总应力扰动主要来自汶川和康定地震。在线性应力加载条件下,当断层面等效摩擦系数μ′=0时,3次地震的相继发生会使鲜水河断裂带八美至磨西(除康定地震破裂带外)的地震提前0~5a,其余地区推迟0~4a;当μ′=0.4时,3次地震会使道孚至猪腰子海子(康定地震破裂带除外)的地震提前0~6a,其余地区推迟0~2a。考察了不同流变学结构对计算结果的影响,发现下地壳上地幔粘滞性系数越低,介质粘滞性响应造成的库仑应力变化越大,沿走向的变化越剧烈,其贡献基本与同震相当,对地震提前/延迟时间估计结果的影响最大可达3a。     

四川断层活动性分析及汶川、芦山地震活动关联性研究

基于龙门山、鲜水河、安宁河-则木河断裂带上跨断层水准资料,计算不同场地年均形变速率和断层垂直形变累积率,分析断层年变速率和Dc空间分布等值线变化,揭示汶川地震前后断层活动规律、区域应变、应力场的能力聚集程度,进而探讨汶川、芦山两次地震的关联性。结果显示：1）汶川地震的发生明显加剧了龙门山断裂带中南段的断层活动性,年均形变速率由震前<1 mm/a,到震后最大达10.01 mm/a;汶川地震的发生对安宁河-则木河断裂带上的汤家坪、西昌场地影响较大,年变速率显著增加,断层活动性得到加强;2）汶川地震发生前,龙门山断裂东北段存在Dc高值区,随后Dc值逐渐减小,汶川地震的发生存在一定的应力累积背景;汶川地震发生后明显改变了整个龙门山断裂带的Dc空间分布,加速形成围绕双河场地的Dc高值环绕区,而芦山地震的震中位置位于高值与低值交界区域,空间差异较为显著。     

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Rapid susceptibility mapping of co-seismic landslides triggered by the 2013 Lushan Earthquake using the regression model developed for the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake

The primary objective of landslide susceptibility mapping is the prediction of potential landslides in landslide-prone areas.The predictive power of a landslide susceptibility mapping model could be tested in an adjacent area of similar geoenvironmental conditions to find out the reliability.Both the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and the 2013 Lushan Earthquake occurred in the Longmen Mountain seismic zone,with similar topographical and geological conditions.The two earthquakes are both featured by thrust fault and similar seismic mechanism.This paper adopted the susceptibility mapping model of co-seismic landslides triggered by Wenchuan earthquake to predict the spatial distribution of landslides induced by Lushan earthquake.Six influencing parameters were taken into consideration: distance from the seismic fault,slope gradient,lithology,distance from drainage,elevation and Peak Ground Acceleration(PGA).The preliminary results suggested that the zones with high susceptibility of coseismic landslides were mainly distributed in the mountainous areas of Lushan,Baoxing and Tianquan counties.The co-seismic landslide susceptibility map was completed in two days after the quake and sent to the field investigators to provide guidance for rescue and relief work.The predictive power of the susceptibility map was validated by ROC curve analysis method using 2037 co-seismic landslides in the epicenter area.The AUC value of 0.710 indicated that the susceptibility model derived from Wenchuan Earthquake landslides showed good accuracy in predicting the landslides triggered by Lushan earthquake.     

利用长期GPS数据研究2008年汶川地震震后形变

采用2008年汶川M_W7.9地震震后7a的GPS连续站和流动站的长期观测资料,基于粘弹性松弛模型,利用PSGRN/PSCMP程序计算汶川震后形变,反演巴颜喀拉块体下的粘弹性参数。其中分层模型考虑巴颜喀拉块体下存在低速带,最优拟合的粘弹性松弛模型显示该低速带粘弹性参数为2.51×10¹⁸ Pa·s,而中下地壳粘弹性参数为3.98×10¹⁸ Pa·s。     

山西分区地壳速度模型的建立及应用

将山西地区划分为北部、中部和南部3个区域,利用2009～2019年山西省及周边50 km范围内的地震事件波形资料,使用线性拟合、折合走时及Hyposat批量定位等方法确定各分区的地壳速度模型.采用批量定位比较残差、PTD方法测定震源深度及非天然地震事件检验等方法对分区模型进行验证,结果显示,相对山西2015速度模型,分...     

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鲜水河断裂跨断层异常与九寨沟地震关联性探讨

提取巴颜喀拉地块东部边界鲜水河断裂、龙门山断裂及边界附近西秦岭构造区跨断层灰色关联度指标曲线,根据1999~2007年、2009~2015年及2015~2017年GPS速度场数据计算所得的鲜水河断裂、龙门山断裂及塔藏断裂剖面变化,通过对比分析寻找地块边界断裂活动的共性特征。结果表明,2009年巴颜喀拉地块东部出现显著的SE向加速运动,之后数年一直维持这种高速特性,汶川8级地震的发生调整了该地区的应力状态,有利于芦山7级地震及九寨沟7级地震的发生;2015~2017年巴颜喀拉地块东部在维持高速运动和高应力状态基础上继续增速变化,地块边界鲜水河断裂2016~2017-07跨断层观测数据显示的显著拉张加速变化与九寨沟地震有一定关联,具中期背景性预测意义。     

龙门山前山断裂南段强震崩塌与1327年天全地震

具有强震孕育能力的龙门山前山断裂南段附近地区的强震事件仅有以史料记载的1327年天全地震和仪器记载的1970年大邑6.2级、2013年芦山7.0级地震,这些地震均引发大量的崩塌、滑坡。调查对比发现,沿龙门山断裂南段大川-双石断裂沿线的典型地段分布的历史地震崩塌范围和运移距离都大于芦山地震所触发的崩塌,崩塌的方量和粒径表现为南西往北东逐步减少、减小的趋势。崩塌调查、崩塌体埋藏物和表生地衣相对年代学测试结果、史料记载与震例对比和地震有感半径与震级经验公式计算综合表明,1327年天全地震引起的地面震动大于芦山地震,是天全县“大岩崩”地名和双石镇“晒经书”景观形成的主要原因,1327年天全地震的震中可能位于龙门山断裂南段大川-双石断裂附近的天全响水溪一带,震中烈度≥Ⅸ度,震级≥7.0。     

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利用密集临时地震台网资料研究唐山地震区三维速度结构

利用地震层析成像方法处理唐山临时地震台网资料,得到该地震区中上地壳的速度图像。图像表明：上地壳速度在唐山断裂带两侧差异明显,速度结构特征是北西侧为高速区,东南侧为低速区,唐山断裂带为速度陡变带;中地壳速度表现为在研究区中部近东西向展布的低速带,其位置和方向与近东西向的丰台 野鸡坨断裂有对应关系;唐山震源区无论是在深度方向还是水平方向都存在地壳速度陡变。     

1966年邢台地震静态库仑应力触发分析

通过分析1966年邢台5次地震的静态库仑应力触发情况发现,前2次地震对后面的地震有较好的触发,而MS7.2以后地震的触发不理想。从而认为,随着地震的发生和震源深度的增加,岩浆活动对地壳介质的影响越来越大,地壳介质弹性性能越来越弱,即该区域浅部可以用均匀弹性半空间来近似,而深部在岩浆等因素的影响下,用均匀弹性半空间来近似存在较大的误差,不适合用弹性位错理论计算地震的触发关系。这从侧面反映了该地区岩浆活动的剧烈性和超壳断层存在的客观性。     

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2021年滦州MS4.3地震和2015年昌黎MS4.2地震震源参数及构造意义研究

基于京津冀地震台网观测资料,利用CAP方法反演滦州M_S4.3地震、昌黎M_S4.2地震及其M_S3.3余震的震源机制,并利用近震深度震相获得更为准确的震源深度,结合双差定位法获得2个地震序列的震源分布结果,对发震构造及成因关联开展分析研究。结果显示：1）滦州M_S4.3地震的节面Ⅰ走向、倾角、滑动角分别为211°、85°、168°,节面Ⅱ分别为302°、78°、5°,震源错动类型为走滑型,震源深度为8 km,地震序列的震源分布呈NNE向,短轴剖面显示断层面倾角近垂直,认为其发震断层面为节面Ⅰ;昌黎M_S4.2地震及M_S3.3余震的节面Ⅰ分别为189°、68°、161°及190°、61°、170°,节面Ⅱ分别为286°、72°、23°及285°、81°、29°,震源错动类型同为走滑型,震源深度为10.5 km,地震序列的震源分布呈NNE向,短轴剖面显示断层面倾角近垂直,认为其发震断层面为节面Ⅰ;2）基于滦州M_S4.3地震、昌黎M_S4.2地震及滦州M_S7.1地震的震源参数结果,结合区域地质构造等资料分析认为,3次地震的发震构造不是上地壳先存断裂,而可能与震源区的深部构造背景密切相关,即壳内包体现象是孕育这些地震的共同基础。     

张渤地震构造带中西段及邻区深部构造探测

利用穿过张渤地震构造带中西段及邻区的多条地震测深资料．详细研究了张渤地震构造带中西段及邻区的地壳深部速度结构与构造。结果表明,该区地壳深部速度结构与构造在纵向和横向上具有明显的不均一性。在三河-平谷8级震区、延庆-怀来盆地及张家口附近地区莫霍面埋深分别为35、39和42km,其地壳厚度由东至西逐渐增加。该区基底断裂发育。在其深部,根据地震波动力学及运动学特征和二维速度结构中的地震界面与速度等值线起伏变化推测,在大兴、延庆、涿鹿等地均存在深部断裂带,在深部断裂带一侧或两侧的上地壳存在6．0km／s左右的低速层（体）。