Uncertainties in the SNOWPACK multilayer snow model for a Canadian avalanche context: sensitivity to climatic forcing data

Abstract

As interest in outdoor activities in remote areas is increasing, there is a strong need for improved avalanche forecasting at the regional scale. Due to important logistical and safety matters, avalanche terrain measurements (avalanche observations, snowpack profiles, and stability tests) are not always possible for practitioners/forecasters. An interesting alternative would be to analyze the snowpack without these challenges by using snow model outputs. The SNOWPACK model is currently used operationally for avalanche forecasting and research in the Swiss Alps. Thus, this paper presents a summary of analyses that have been conducted to assess the potential of using the SNOWPACK model driven with both in-situ and forecasted meteorological data in three different Canadian climate and geomorphological contexts. A comparison of meteorological data from in-situ and predicted datasets for two winters shows that the GEMLAM weather model is the most accurate for the three climatic contexts of this project, but also showed a bias proportional to precipitation intensity/rate. Snow simulations forced with GEMLAM are the closest to field measurements. Finally, predictions of persistent weak layers have been validated using the InfoEx platform from Avalanche Canada. Crust and surface hoar formation dates agree with the information reported in InfoEx.     

Patterns in the sand: From forcing templates to self-organization

The nearshore region exhibits many striking morphological patterns with a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The formation of these rhythmic features has been initially ascribed, depending on the pattern in question, to spatial structures in the flow or geological constrains. These forcing templates have been hypothesized to provide the spatial structure that becomes imprinted on the shoreline or seabed morphology. More recently, new explanations for rhythmic patterns have involved interactions between fluid flow and sediment transport that create morphological feedbacks and lead to pattern self-organization. While forcing-template models do not explicitly treat transport of the sediment that makes up the pattern, self-organization models focus on the strong couplings within flow/sediment systems, and on interactions between emergent structures. We illustrate the sweeping shift from template explanations to self-organization by discussing four nearshore patterns: beach cusps, surfzone crescentic sandbars, inner-shelf sorted bedforms, and large-scale cuspate shorelines. Models involving self-organization show that local interactions between flow and sediment transport can collectively give rise to patterns with large-scale coherence and that the driving feedbacks can be associated with either topographical or grain-size composition instabilities. An approach based on self-organization also allows researchers to establish limitations in the predictability of the occurrence of rhythmic patterns and characteristics as well as to study mechanisms leading to the observed variability of pattern or lack of regularity.     

Late Holocene changes in cyanobacterial community structure in maritime Antarctic lakes

Despite the dominance of cyanobacteria in polar freshwater aquatic ecosystems, little is known about their past biodiversity and response to climate and environmental changes. We explored the use of light microscopy of microfossils, high performance liquid chromatography of the fossil pigment composition and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis of fossil 16S rRNA genes to study past and present-day differences in cyanobacterial community structure in response to climate changes in two adjacent maritime Antarctic lakes with contrasting depths (4 and 26 m) and light climates. Light microscopy was of limited use because of degradation of cell structures. Fossil cyanobacterial pigment concentrations were below the detection limits of our method in several sediment samples in the deep lake, but abundant and diverse in the sediment core from the shallow pond, probably as a consequence of increased light availability and/or a more diverse and abundant benthic cyanobacterial flora. Total carotenoid and chlorophyll concentrations were highest in both lakes between ca. 2,950 and 1,800 cal yr BP, which coincides with the late Holocene climate optimum recognised elsewhere in maritime Antarctica. Cyanobacterial molecular diversity was higher in the top few centimeters of the sediments in both lakes. In deeper sediments, the taxonomic turnover of cyanobacteria appeared to be relatively small in response to past climate anomalies in both lakes, underscoring the broad tolerance of cyanobacteria to environmental variability. This, however, may in part be explained by the low taxonomic resolution obtained with the relatively conserved 16S rRNA gene and/or the preferential preservation of particular taxa. Our results highlight the potential of fossil DNA in lake sediments to study colonization and succession dynamics of lacustrine cyanobacteria and warrant further investigation of the factors that affect preservation of cyanobacterial DNA.     

A survey on changes of multiple humoral factors in Antarctic expedition members

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Spatiotemporal changes of land desertification sensitivity in northwest China from 2000 to 2017

Sensitivity assessment is useful for monitoring land desertification.Research into how to prevent and control desertification is also important.In the arid region of northwest China,desertification is becoming worse and is a serious problem that affects local sustain-able development.Based on remote-sensing and geographic information system technology,this study establishes a"soil-terrain-hydrology-climate-vegetation"desertification sensitivity comprehensive evaluation system to reflect the spatiotemporal changes of land desertifica-tion,and proposes a spatial distance model to calculate a desertification sensitivity index.The spatiotemporal change characteristics of land desertification sensitivity in northwest China are quantitatively assessed from 2000 to 2017.Moreover,the main driving factors are ana-lyzed using the geographical detector method.The results show the following.(1)Terrain,soil,climate,vegetation and hydrology affect and restrict each other,and constitute the back-ground conditions of the distributions and changes of sensitivity to desertification in northwest China.(2)Desertification sensitivity generally displays a low distribution characteristic on the periphery of the area and a high one in the interior.The low-sensitivity regions are mainly in the five major mountain ranges(Altai Mountains,Tianshan Mountains,Kunlun Mountains,Altun Mountains and Qilian Mountains),while the high-sensitivity regions are mainly in re-gions such as the Junggar Basin,the Tarim Basin and the Inner Mongolia Plateau,as well as the Taklimakan Desert,Badain Jaran Desert and Tengger Desert.The spatial distribution of desertification sensitivity is obviously regional,and the high-and low-sensitivity regions have clear boundaries and a concentrated distribution.(3)With regard to spatiotemporal evolution,changes in desertification sensitivity since 2000 have been predominantly stable,and the overall sensitivity has displayed a slowly decreasing trend,indicating that potential desertifi-cation regions are decreasing annually and that some achievements have been made in the control of regional desertification. (4) Soil and climate play a direct role in the driving factors of desertification in northwest China, and these have been found to be the most important in-fluential factors. Vegetation is the most active and basic factor in changing the sensitivity. In addition, topography and hydrology play a role in restricting desertification changes. So-cio-economic factors are the most rapid factors affecting regional desertification sensitivity,and their impacts tend to be gradually increasing. In general, desertification has been effec-tively controlled in northwest China, and positive results have been achieved in such control.However, against the backdrop of intensified global climate change, increasingly prominent human activities and new normals of socio-economic development, the monitoring, assess-ment and control of desertification in China still have a long way to go.     

Late Holocene changes in ultraviolet radiation penetration recorded in an East Antarctic lake

Late Holocene changes in the ultraviolet radiation (UVR) penetration in a lake in the Larsemann Hills (East Antarctica) were reconstructed using sediment core proxies based on fossil pigments (scytonemins and its derivatives) and siliceous microfossils. The influence of changes in lake depth on the UVR proxy was excluded by applying a correction, based on the non-linear relation between modern scytonemin concentrations and lake depth in a regional reference data set, and the record of past lake depths inferred using a diatom based transfer function in the sediment core. Results showed four well-defined maxima in the UVR proxy during the last 1600–1800 years, centred around 1820–1780, 1580–1490, 790–580 and 680–440 AD. Several mechanisms may account for these observed changes in UVR penetration, including past variability in cloud cover, atmospheric turbidity, ozone column depth, snow cover on the lake ice, DOM concentrations and lake-ice thickness and transparency resulting from temperature fluctuations. Although some gaps remain in our knowledge of scytonemin production in relation to the limnology of Antarctic lakes, the results highlight the importance and potential of the sediments in these highly transparent water bodies as archives of changes in past UVR receipt at the Earth’s surface.     

1950—2015年中国棉花生产时空动态变化

基于1950—2015年中国棉花生产分布数据,综合运用时序变化趋势、空间分析等方法,分析中国棉花产量、面积及单产的时空分布特征和重心迁移轨迹,在此基础上量化面积和单产对棉花产量变化的贡献度。结果表明:① 1950—2015年间,中国棉花产量和单产总体呈上升趋势,产量增加521.44万t,单产增加1381.83 kg/hm²,面积经历剧烈波动、平稳发展及3次起落5个时期后,与1950年基本持平;② 棉花产量和面积区域性差距较大,但总体呈增加趋势,单产变化趋势稳定,其中西北内陆棉区棉花生产年际波动最大;③ 1950—2015年中国棉花种植区域中近87%的地区产量增加,约63%的地区棉花面积减少,70%以上地区棉花单产增加。三大棉区产量和单产增加,但增长速率不断减小,西北内陆棉区缩减幅度最小,亦是中国棉花面积增长的主力棉区;④ 中国棉花生产形成“东南—西北”的格局,主产区由黄河流域棉区转为西北内陆棉区;棉花产量和面积重心均向西北方向移动,总移动距离分别为1947 km、1398 km,2010—2015年移动速度最大,分别达到159 km/a、140 km/a;西北内陆棉区生产重心由和田迁至阿克苏,长江流域棉区由六安迁至黄冈,黄河流域棉区则由邯郸迁至聊城;⑤ 全国棉花产量贡献由单产主导逐渐转变为面积主导,从棉区来看,长江和黄河流域棉区亦由单产主导逐渐转变为面积主导,西北内陆棉区则一直为面积主导。     

Photosynthetic responses of selected Antarctic plants to solar radiation in the southern maritime Antarctic

The effects of UV-B exclusion and enhancement of solar radiation on photosynthesis of the two phanerogams which occur in the maritime Antarctic, Deschampsia antarctica and Colobanthus quitensis , and the moss Sanionia uncinats were investigated. Data on air temperature and solar radiation illustrate a drastic seasonal variation. Daily O₃ column mean values and UV-B measured at ground level document the occurrence of the O₃"hole" in the spring of 1997, with a concomitant increase in UV-B. The grass, D. antarctica , exhibited a broad temperature optimum for photosynthesis between 10–25°C while photosynthesis did not saturate even at high irradiance. The high water use efficiencies measured in the grass may be one of the features explaining the presence of this species in the maritime Antarctic. The net photosynthesis response to intercellular CO₂ (A/c_i) for D. antarctica was typical of a C₃ plant. Exposure to a biologically effective UV-B irradiance of 0.74 W M^-2 did not result in any significant change in either the maximum rate of photosynthesis at saturating CO₂ and light, or in the initial carboxylation efficiency of Rubisco. (V_c,max). Furthermore while ambient (or enhanced) solar UV-B did not affect photochemical yield, measured in the field, of C. quitensis and D. antarctica , UV-B enhancement did affect negatively photochemical yield in S. uncinata . In D. antarctica plants, exposure to UV-B at low irradiances elicited increased flavonoid synthesis. The observed effects of UV-B enhancement on the moss (decreased photochemical yield) and the grass (increase in flavonoids) require further, separate investigation.     

Correspondence of historic salinity fluctuations in Florida Bay, USA, to atmospheric variability and anthropogenic changes

Florida Bay is a highly dynamic estuary that exhibits wide natural fluctuations in salinity due to changes in the balance of precipitation, evaporation and freshwater runoff from the mainland. Rapid and large-scale modification of freshwater flow and construction of transportation conduits throughout the Florida Keys during the late nineteenth and twentieth centuries reshaped water circulation and salinity patterns across the ecosystem. In order to determine long-term patterns in salinity variation across the Florida Bay estuary, we used a diatom-based salinity transfer function to infer salinity within 3.27 ppt root mean square error of prediction from diatom assemblages from four ~130 year old sediment records. Sites were distributed along a gradient of exposure to anthropogenic shifts in the watershed and salinity. Precipitation was found to be the primary driver influencing salinity fluctuations over the entire record, but watershed modifications on the mainland and in the Florida Keys during the late-1800s and 1900s were the most likely cause of significant shifts in baseline salinity. The timing of these shifts in the salinity baseline varies across the Bay: that of the northeastern coring location coincides with the construction of the Florida Overseas Railway (AD 1906–1916), while that of the east-central coring location coincides with the drainage of Lake Okeechobee (AD 1881–1894). Subsequent decreases occurring after the 1960s (east-central region) and early 1980s (southwestern region) correspond to increases in freshwater delivered through water control structures in the 1950s–1970s and again in the 1980s. Concomitant increases in salinity in the northeastern and south-central regions of the Bay in the mid-1960s correspond to an extensive drought period and the occurrence of three major hurricanes, while the drop in the early 1970s could not be related to any natural event. This paper provides information about major factors influencing salinity conditions in Florida Bay in the past and quantitative estimates of the pre- and post-South Florida watershed modification salinity levels in different regions of the Bay. This information should be useful for environmental managers in setting restoration goals for the marine ecosystems in South Florida, especially for Florida Bay.     

1977-2014年江苏中部滨海湿地演化与围垦空间演变趋势

通过野外实地调研与遥感影像解译相结合的方式,研究1977-2014年（1977、1984、2000、2007与2014年）江苏中部滩涂湿地演化与围垦空间演变的规律。结果表明,1977-2014年江苏中部滨海湿地射阳河口以南岸线段总体以淤长为主,但是也存在侵蚀的岸线段,总体淤长/侵蚀速度在±20 m/yr左右,最高值出现在东台和如东洋口港附近。研究区湿地围垦的速度远高于岸线淤长的速度,基本维持在50 m/yr以上。1977-2014年江苏滨海湿地的生态关键区面积出现了快速的退化趋势,特别是盐生植被空间的快速萎缩,主要出现在射阳南部和大丰市。调查发现研究区传统的湿地围垦开发演变模式是光滩→盐生植被→养殖水面→耕地→建设用地。但是现在由于新技术和新方法的应用,极大地缩短了围垦演变路径和周期,有助于围垦经济效益的提高。江苏滨海湿地围垦后土地开发利用强度呈较为明显的上升趋势。同时,江苏滨海湿地开发的热点空间在区域上主要集中于几个重要的港口及其腹地建制镇附近,但总体规模不大。     

Assessment and forecast of changes of reservoir volumes due to thermal settling in permafrost areas of Russia

This paper presents the results of data analyses and assessments of field and theoretical researches on reservoir bed relief transformation due to thermal settling in the permafrost regions of Russia.The resulting changes（increases） of the total volumes of large and small reservoirs are quantified,of which information will be of great use in future reservoir design and exploitation.     

The mechanism of farmland marginalization in Chinese mountainous areas: Evidence from cost and return changes

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Farmland marginalization has become the main trend of land-use change in the mountainous areas of China. Using annual survey data of major agricultural production...     

Shifting post production patterns: exploring changes in New Zealand's seafood processing industry

This paper examines the changing nature of New Zealand's seafood companies' production practices. The past 15 years has seen the offshore outsourcing of post-harvest fish gain unprecedented momentum. The growth in offshore processing is a further stage in an increasingly globalised fisheries value chain. Fish is head and gutted, frozen and then transported to processing sites in China where it is thawed, value-added processed and refrozen for export to the original sourcing country or third country markets. Reasons advanced by the industry for this shift in production practices include quota reductions, increasing production costs and the sale of trawlers.     

Dynamics of the eco-environmental quality in response to land use changes in rapidly urbanizing areas: A case study of Wuhan,China from 2000 to 2018

Journal of Geographical Sciences - The dramatic land use changes that occur in rapidly urbanized areas are important inducement to changes in the eco-environmental quality. Investigating urban land...     

LIDAR strip adjustment: Application to volcanic areas

DEMs derived from LIDAR data are nowadays largely used for quantitative analyses and modelling in geology and geomorphology. High-quality DEMs are required for the accurate morphometric and volumetric measurement of land features. We propose a rigorous automatic algorithm for correcting systematic errors in LIDAR data in order to assess sub-metric variations in surface morphology over wide areas, such as those associated with landslide, slump, and volcanic deposits. Our procedure does not require a priori knowledge of the surface, such as the presence of known ground control points. Systematic errors are detected on the basis of distortions in the areas of overlap among different strips. Discrepancies between overlapping strips are assessed at a number of chosen computational tie points. At each tie point a local surface is constructed for each strip containing the point. Displacements between different strips are then calculated at each tie point, and minimization of these discrepancies allows the identification of major systematic errors. These errors are identified as a function of the variables that describe the data acquisition system. Significant errors mainly caused by a non-constant misestimation of the roll angle are highlighted and corrected. Comparison of DEMs constructed using first uncorrected and then corrected LIDAR data from different Mt. Etna surveys shows a meaningful improvement in quality: most of the systematic errors are removed and the accuracy of morphometric and volumetric measurements of volcanic features increases. These corrections are particularly important for the following studies of Mt. Etna: calculation of lava flow volume; calculation of erosion and deposition volume of pyroclastic cones; mapping of areas newly covered by volcanic ash; and morphological evolution of a portion of an active lava field over a short time span.     

Rock-weathering by lichens in Antarctic: patterns and mechanisms

Saxicolous species of lichens are able to induce and accelerate weathering of their rock substrate, and effects of lichens on substrate can be attributed to both physical and chemical causes. This paper is focused on biotic weathering actions of epilithic and endolithic species on the different rock types (sandstones and volcanogenic rocks) in Antarctica. The patterns, mechanisms, processes and neoformations of rock-weathering resulting from lichen colonization are expounded in detail. Furthermore, it is pointed out that, for a better understanding of the impacts of lichens on environments, the studies on the rate of biotic weathering and the comprehensive involvement of the lichen effects on weathering of natural rocks remain to be carried out in Antarctica.     

Rock-weathering by lichens in Antarctic: patterns and mechanisms

Saxicolous species of lichens are able to induce and accelerate weathering of their rock substrate, and effects of lichens on substrate can be attributed to both physical and chemical causes. This paper is focused on biotic weathering actions of epilithic and endolithic species on the different rock types (sandstones and volcanogenic rocks) in Antarctica. The patterns, mechanisms, processes and neoformations of rock-weathering resulting from lichen colonization are expounded in detail. Furthermore, it is pointed out that, for a better understanding of the impacts of lichens on environments, the studies on the rate of biotic weathering and the comprehensive involvement of the lichen effects on weathering of natural rocks remain to be carried out in Antarctica.     

Climatic changes in the regions of Antarctic Great Wall Station,Southern Chile and South Georgia Island

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