Inferences on the main volcano-tectonic structures at Mt. Etna (Sicily) from a probabilistic seismological approach

We analysed earthquakes at Mt. Etna for the period 1983–1991 using a method that weights uncertainties in hypocentral location. Three-dimensional distributions of hypocentral probability and energy density were studied, and two first-order volcano-tectonic structures identified. The first, on the northern and western sides, is roughly NE–SW oriented, and strongly marks the northernmost limit of earthquake occurrences in the volcano region; the second, NNW–SSE trending, affects the south-eastern flank of the volcano, and is evidence for an almost aseismic uprise of magma along it. Both structures fit well with the geodynamic framework of eastern Sicily. On the contrary, there is no evidence for a main magma chamber, as postulated in the literature.     

Lava-flow hazard on the SE flank of Mt. Etna (Southern Italy)

A method for mapping lava-flow hazard on the SE flank of Mt. Etna (Sicily, Southern Italy) by applying the Cellular Automata model SCIARA_-fv is described, together with employed techniques of calibration and validation through a parallel Genetic Algorithm. The study area is partly urbanised; it has repeatedly been affected by lava flows from flank eruptions in historical time, and shows evidence of a dominant SSE-trending fracture system. Moreover, a dormant deep-seated gravitational deformation, associated with a larger volcano-tectonic phenomenon, affects the whole south-eastern flank of the volcano.     

Seismogenic stress field beneath Mt. Etna (South Italy) and possible relationships with volcano-tectonic features

Shallow shear-type seismic activity occurring beneath the Etna volcano during 1990–1995 has been analysed for hypocenter locations, focal mechanisms and stress tensor inversion. The results have been examined jointly with Electronic Distance Measurements and tiltmeter data collected in the same period and reported in the literature. Significant seismicity located in the upper 10 km was found to be confined to the time intervals in which ground deformation data indicated inflation of the volcano edifice (e.g., the periods preceding the December 1991–March 1993 and August 1995–March 1996 eruptive phases). The shocks mostly occurred in a sector approximately centered on the crater area and elongated in the East–West direction. The causative seismogenic stress shows a low-dip East–West orientation of σ₁. In agreement with existing knowledge on relationships between local fault systems and magma uprise processes, the shallow seismicity in question is tentatively explained as being due to lateral compression by magma inside a nearly North–South system. The volcano deflation phase revealed by Electronic Distance Measurements and tilt data during the 1991–1993 major eruption was not accompanied by any significant shear-type shallow event. Below the depth of 10 km, the North–South prevailing orientation of σ₁ reflects the dominant role of the regional stress.     

Seismic hazard assessment for Iceland in terms of macroseismic intensity using a site approach

We present the results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Iceland in the framework of the EU project UPStrat-MAFA using the so-called site approach implemented in the SASHA computational code. This approach estimates seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensity by basically relying on local information about documented effects of past seismic events in the framework of a formally coherent and complete treatment of intensity data. In the case of Iceland, due to the lack of observed intensities for past earthquakes, local seismic histories were built using indirect macroseismic estimates deduced from epicentral information through an empirical attenuation relationship in probabilistic form. Seismic hazard was computed for four exceedance probabilities for an exposure time of 50 years, equivalent to average return periods of 50, 200, 475 and 975 years. For some localities, further return periods were examined and deaggregation analysis was performed. Results appear significantly different from previous seismic hazard maps, though just a semi-qualitative comparison is possible because of the different shaking measure considered (peak ground acceleration versus intensity), and the different computational methodology and input data used in these studies.     

Seismic activity accompanying the outbreak of the 1991–1993 eruption of Mt. Etna (Italy)

The character and location of seismic activity accompanying the onset of the 1991–1993 eruption at Mt. Etna are compatible with the surface evidence of the volcanic pile rupture. Both the epicentral distribution and the focal mechanisms of a swarm that occurred on December 14, 1991, agree with magma ascent occurring along the main NNW-SSE-trending structure of the volcano and the consequent opening of a system of effusive fissures with the same trend. A typical mainshock-aftershock sequence, recorded the day after and indicating transcurrent displacement occurring along the second-principal structure of Etna (NE-SW), depicts the tectonic response of the volcanic pile and the underlying basement to major stresses applied by the magma push.     

Seismic patterns and fluid-dynamic features preceding and accompanying the January 15, 1990 eruptive paroxysm on Mt. Etna (Italy)

On the basis of data collected during a seismological investigation carried out on Mt. Etna (Italy) during a phase of the volcanic activity marked by progressive transition from Strombolian bursts to effusive paroxysms at the SE crater (January 1990), three types of seismic regime have been recognized. They are interpreted to be linked to modifications in the regimes of volcanic gases and vapours within the upper levels of the magma column, as suggested by recent studies on the dynamics of magmatic fluids. Our analysis also reveals that the use of usual seismic parameters, such as the temporal patterns associated with the occurrence of discrete low-frequency events (“spindles”) and the coefficient m of the Ishimoto-Iida law, can furnish information about variations in the behaviour of the system before the irreversible evolution of the volcanic activity toward eruptive paroxysms.     

Seismic hazard estimation based on the distributed seismicity in northern China

In this paper, we have proposed an alternative seismic hazard modeling by using distributed seismicites. The distributed seismicity model does not need delineation of seismic source zones, and simplify the methodology of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. Based on the devastating earthquake catalogue, we established three seismi- city model, derived the distribution of a-value in northern China by using Gaussian smoothing function, and cal-culated peak ground acceleration distributions for this area with 2%, 5% and 10% probability of exceedance in a 50-year period by using three attenuation models, respectively. In general, the peak ground motion distribution patterns are consistent with current seismic hazard map of China, but in some specific seismic zones which in-clude Shanxi Province and Shijiazhuang areas, our results indicated a little bit higher peak ground motions and zonation characters which are in agreement with seismicity distribution patterns in these areas. The hazard curves have been developed for Beijing, Tianjin, Taiyuan, Tangshan, and Ji’nan, the metropolitan cities in the northern China. The results showed that Tangshan, Taiyuan, Beijing has a higher seismic hazard than that of other cities mentioned above.     

基于华北区域地震活动性分布的地震危险性评价模型

采用了分布式地震活动性模型. 该模型无需潜在震源区划分,同时简化了地震危险性概率分析方法. 根据破坏性地震目录建立了3个地震活动性模型,利用高斯光滑函数获得了华北区域内的a值分布特征,使用3种典型的衰减模型,分别计算了50年内超越概率10%, 5%和2%的地震动峰值加速度分布. 其分析结果显示了峰值加速度分布特征与我国第四代区划图大体一致,特定地震活动区（太原、 石家庄等地区）的峰值加速度略高于第四代区划图的结果,而这种峰值加速度分布特征与该地区较高的地震活动性特征是一致的. 概率危险性曲线结果表明,唐山、太原和北京等地区的潜在地震危险性比华北区域内其它城市高.      

The role of the urban system dysfunction in the assessment of seismic risk in the Mt. Etna area (Italy)

A procedure for seismic risk assessment is applied to the Mt. Etna area (eastern Sicily, Italy) through assessment of urban system dysfunction following the occurrence of an earthquake. The tool used is based on the Disruption Index as a concept implemented in Simulator QuakeIST, which defines urban disruption following a natural disaster. The first element of the procedure is the definition of the seismic input, which is based on information about historical seismicity and seismogenic faults. The second element is computation of seismic impact on the building stock and infrastructure in the area considered. Information on urban-scale vulnerability was collected and a geographic information system was used to organise the data relating to buildings and network systems (e.g., building stock, schools, strategic structures, lifelines). The central idea underlying the definition of the Disruption Index is identification and evaluation of the impact on a target community through the physical elements that most contribute to severe disruption. The procedure applied in this study (i.e., software and data) constitutes a very useful operational tool to drive the development of strategies to minimise risks from earthquakes.     

Seismic hazard in southern Calabria (Italy) based on the analysis of a synthetic earthquake catalog

The application of a newly developed physics-based earthquake simulator to the active faults inferred by aeromagnetism in southern Calabria has produced a synthetic catalog lasting 100 ky including more than 18,000 earthquakes of magnitude ≥?4.0. This catalog exhibits temporal, spatial and magnitude features, which resemble those of the observed seismicity. As an example of the potential use of synthetic catalogs, a map of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) for a given exceedance probability on the territory under investigation has been produced by means of a simple attenuation law applied to all the events reported in the synthetic catalog. This map was compared with the existing hazard map that is presently used in the national seismic building regulations. The comparison supports a strong similarity of our results with the values given in the present Italian seismic building code, despite the latter being based on a different methodology. The same similarity cannot be recognized for the comparison of our present study with the results obtained from a previous study based on our same methodology but with a different geological model.     

Features of volcanic tremors on Mt. Etna (Sicily) during the March–August 1983 eruption

The seismic analysis of the volcanic tremors preceding and accompanying the Etnean eruption of March–August, 1983 has shown a significant variation in the spectral content before the beginning of the eruption, the tremor peaks at 1.4 and 1.6 Hz — which might be associated with the feeding pipes of the NE crater (Schick et al., 1982a) — being the dominant feature of the spectra.A model of eruption mechanism is proposed where a feeder dyke would connect the NE crater with the effusive fracture.     

Temporal variations in gravity at Mt. Etna (Italy) associated with the 1989 and 1991 eruptions

 Results are presented from 11 microgravity surveys on Mt. Etna between 1987 and 1993, a period including the major 1989 and 1991–1993 flank eruptions and subordinate 1990 activity. Measurements were made with LaCoste and Romberg D-62 and D-157 gravity meters along a network around the volcano between 1000 and 1900 m a.s.l. and, since 1992, a N–S summit profile. Gravity changes of as much as 200 μGal were observed at scales from the size of the summit region to that of the volcano. None was associated with significant changes in ground elevation. The data show an increase in gravity for 2 years before the 1989 eruption. The increase is attributed to the accumulation of magma (0.25–1.7×10⁹m³) in an elongate zone, oriented NNW–SSE, between 2.5 and 6 km below sea level. Part of this magma was injected into the volcanic pile to supply the 1989 and 1990 eruptions. It also probably fed the start of the 1991–1993 eruption, since this event was not preceded by significant gravity changes. A large gravity increase (up to 140 μGal) detected across the volcano between June and September 1992 is consistent with the arrival in the accumulation zone of 0.32–2.2×10⁹m³ of new magma, thus favoring continued flank effusion until 1993. A large gravity decrease (200 μGal) in the summit region marked the closing stages of the 1991–1993 event and is associated with magma drainage from the upper levels of Etna's central feeding system. Received: 15 July 1995 / Accepted: 27 October 1997     

Building vulnerability and seismic risk analysis in the urban area of Mt. Etna volcano (Italy)

The tectonic system of the eastern flank of Mt. Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy) is the source of most of the strongest earthquakes occurring in the area over the last 205 years. A total of 12 events with epicentre intensities ≥VIII EMS have occurred at Mt. Etna, 10 of which were located on the eastern flank. This indicates a mean recurrence time of about 20 years. This area is highly urbanised, with many villages around the volcano at altitudes up to 700 m a.s.l. The southern and eastern flanks are particularly highly populated areas, with numerous villages very close to each other. The probabilistic seismic hazard due to local faults for Mt. Etna was calculated by adopting a site approach to seismic hazard assessment. Only the site histories of local volcano-tectonic earthquakes were considered, leaving out the effects due to strong regional earthquakes that occurred in north-eastern and south-eastern Sicily. The inventory used in this application refers to residential buildings. These data were extracted from the 1991 census of the Italian National Institute of Statistics, and are grouped according to the census sections. The seismic vulnerability of the elements at risk belonging to a given building typology is described by a vulnerability index, in accordance with a damage model based on macroseismic intensities. For the estimation of economic losses due to physical damage to buildings, an integrated impact indicator was used, which is equivalent to the lost building volume. The expected annualised economic earthquake losses were evaluated both in absolute and in relative terms, and were compared with the geographical distribution of seismic hazard and with similar evaluations of losses for other regions.     

Seismic hazard assessment in Central Asia: Outcomes from a site approach

In the process of updating existing PSHA maps in Central Asia, a first step is the evaluation of the seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensity by applying a data driven method. Following the Site Approach to Seismic Hazard Assessment (SASHA) [11], the evaluation of the probability of exceedance of any given intensity value over a fixed exposure time, is mainly based on the seismic histories available at different locations without requiring any a-priori assumption about seismic zonation. The effects of earthquakes not included in the seismic history can be accounted by propagating the epicentral information through a Intensity Prediction Equation developed for the analyzed area. In order to comply with existing building codes in the region that use macroseismic intensity instead of PGA, we evaluated the seismic hazard at 2911 localities using a macroseismic catalog composed by 5322 intensity data points relevant to 75 earthquakes in the magnitude range 4.6–8.3. The results show that for most of the investigated area the intensity having a probability of at least 10% to be exceeded in 50 years is VIII. The intensity rises to IX for some area struck by strong earthquakes in the past, like the Chou-Kemin-Chilik fault zone in northern Tien-Shan, between Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, or in Gissar range between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. These values are about one intensity unit less than those evaluated in the Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP; Ulomov, The GSHAP Region 7 working group [29]). Moreover, hazard curves have been extracted for the main towns of Central Asia and the results compared with the estimates previously obtained. A good agreement has been found for Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) and Dushanbe (Tajikistan), while a lower probability of occurrence of I=VIII has been obtained for Tashkent (Uzbekistan) and a larger one for I=IX in Almaty (Kazakhstan).     

Cluster analysis of soil CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> data from Mt. Etna (Italy) reveals volcanic influences on temporal and spatial patterns of degassing

Soil CO₂ concentration data were collected periodically from July 2001 to June 2005 from sampling site grids in two areas located on the lower flanks of Mt. Etna volcano (Paternò and Zafferana Etnea–Santa Venerina). Cluster analysis was performed on the acquired data in order to identify possible groups of sites where soil degassing could be fed by different sources. In both areas three clusters were recognised, whose average CO₂ concentration values throughout the whole study period remained significantly different from one another. The clusters with the lowest CO₂ concentrations showed time-averaged values ranging from 980 to 1,170 ppm vol, whereas those with intermediate CO₂ concentrations showed time-averaged values ranging from 1,400 to 2,320 ppm vol, and those with the highest concentrations showed time-averaged values between 1,960 and 55,430 ppm vol. We attribute the lowest CO₂ concentrations largely to a biogenic source of CO₂. Conversely, the highest CO₂ concentrations are attributed to a magmatic source, whereas the intermediate values are due to a variable mixing of the two sources described above. The spatial distribution of the CO₂ values related to the magmatic source define a clear direction of anomalous degassing in the Zafferana Etnea–Santa Venerina area, which we attribute to the presence of a hidden fault, whereas in the Paternò area no such oriented anomalies were observed, probably because of the lower permeability of local soil. Time-series analysis shows that most of the variations observed in the soil CO₂ data from both areas were related to changes in the volcanic activity of Mt. Etna. Seasonal influences were only observed in the time patterns of the clusters characterised by low CO₂ concentrations, and no significant interdependence was found between soil CO₂ concentrations and meteorological parameters. The largest observed temporal anomalies are interpreted as release of CO₂ from magma batches that migrated from deeper to shallower portions of Etna’s feeder system. The pattern of occurrence of such episodes of anomalous gas release during the observation period was quite different between the two studied areas. This pattern highlighted an evident change in the mechanism of magma transport and storage within the volcano’s feeder system after June 2003, interpreted as magma accumulation into a shallow (<8 km depth) reservoir.     

Time Correlation Analysis of the Microseismicity of the Low Eastern Flank of Mt. Etna Volcano (Italy)

—An analysis in terms of time correlation functions has been applied to the time distribution of microseismicity. We considered the single station detections (M < 2) recorded by each one of the four working stations of the network of the Osservatorio Sismologico di Protezione Civile, Acireale (Catania), located on the active faults systems (Timpe) of the low eastern flank of Mt. Etna. Information obtained on the time regularity of seismic crisis and on the time correlation between the activities recorded by different stations allowed a better understanding of the role of the two main structures. The Timpa di Santa Tecla is the most seismogenic structure in the area and probably played a role in the magma transfer process for the 1989 eruption. Modifications of the local stress field by actions of this feature may have produced gravitational instability along a second structural system (the Timpa di S. Leonardello) with a time delay of about 100 days. By contrast, magma penetration associated with the larger eruption of 1991–1993 had a deeper rise system and had no effect on local stress conditions, consequently there was no correlation between volcanism and seismicity.     

Upwards migration of seismic focii: A forerunner of the 1989 eruption of Mt Etna (Italy)

Data from a portable array of three-component digital stations, run at Mt Etna from 1988 to early 1990, highlight the seismic behaviour of the volcano before the 1989 eruption, one of the most significant in terms of energy of the last two decades. After a two-year period of weak and discotinuous seismicity, the depth of the seismically active volumes was observed to become shallower a few months before the volcanic event. The overall migration of the events, inferred by hypocentral locations and decreases of S-P time differences at two stations, agrees with other geophysical forerunners and allows further insights into the changes in the stress field leading to the eruption.