Towards earthquake early warning for the Rion-Antirion bridge,Greece

Patras is the third largest city in Greece and an ideal candidate for earthquake early warning (EEW) applications due to its high seismic hazard, its existing research infrastructure and the presence of critical structures such as the Rion-Antirion bridge. Patras is located a few hundred kilometres from the Hellenic Arc, where very strong and potentially damaging earthquakes occur. This distance is large enough to allow a few tens of seconds of warning time prior to significant shaking, provided earthquakes are timely detected by a dense seismic network. Within the framework of the EC-funded project REAKT, the Virtual Seismologist (VS) EEW software was installed at Patras Seismological Laboratory. Its initial performance evaluation is presented here. In general VS provides magnitudes similar to the official, manually revised ones. Given the current station density and network telemetry, the average time that VS needs to deliver the first magnitude estimate is rather large, of the order of tens of seconds and not yet satisfactory for routine operational use of EEW. Even so, the system is able to provide up to 10 s of warning time prior to S-wave arrivals for events occurring on the Hellenic Arc. Our results indicate that the seismic networks in Greece need enhancements for regional EEW, either by adding stations or by upgrading the hardware to reduce delays. The application of an EEW system in the area is promising and, once operational, capable of mitigating earthquake risk.     

An integrated earthquake early warning system and its performance at schools in Taiwan

An earthquake early warning (EEW) system with integration of regional and onsite approaches was installed at nine demonstration stations in several districts of Taiwan for taking advantages of both approaches. The system performance was evaluated by a 3-year experiment at schools, which experienced five major earthquakes during this period. The blind zone of warning was effectively reduced by the integrated EEW system. The predicted intensities from EEW demonstration stations showed acceptable accuracy compared to field observations. The operation experience from an earthquake event proved that students could calmly carry out correct action before the seismic wave arrived using some warning time provided by the EEW system. Through successful operation in practice, the integrated EEW system was verified as an effective tool for disaster prevention at schools.     

藏南地区中深源地震精确定深研究及其地球动力学含义

利用2004～2005年Hi-CLIMB计划架设在藏南日喀则附近由28台宽频带数字地震仪组成的二维台阵的地震记录,应用双差层析定位方法(TomoDD)对454个区域地震进行了精确重定位,共确定了340个地震的精确位置.发现区域震源深度呈明显的双层分布,其中有21 个地震的深度在50～80 km之间,与该地区的莫霍面深度相近.通过不同深度震源的理论地震图与实际地震图对比的方法,发现震源位置位于莫霍面上下地震图的震相存在明显差异,从而给出了存在地幔地震的直接观测证据.这一发现,对长期争论的地幔地震是否存在及大陆岩石圈流变结构的“三明治”模型有重要参考意义.     

Deterministic Approach for the Seismic Microzonation of Bucharest

— The mapping of the seismic ground motion in Bucharest, due to the strong Vrancea earthquakes is carried out using a complex hybrid waveform modeling method which combines the modal summation technique, valid for laterally homogeneous anelastic media, with finite-differences technique, and optimizes the advantages of both methods. For recent earthquakes, it is possible to validate the modeling by comparing the synthetic seismograms with the records. We consider for our computations the frequency range from 0.05 to 1.0 Hz and control the synthetic signals against the accelerograms of the Magurele station, low-pass filtered with a cut-off frequency of 1.0 Hz of the 3 last major strong (M_w > 6) Vrancea earthquakes. Using the hybrid method with a double-couple seismic source approximation, scaled for the source dimensions and relatively simple regional (bedrock) and local structure models, we succeeded in reproducing the recorded ground motion in Bucharest at a satisfactory level for seismic engineering. Extending the modeling to the entire territory of the Bucharest area, we construct a new seismic microzonation map, where five different zones are identified by their characteristic response spectra.     

Intelligent seismic isolation system using air bearings and earthquake early warning

Recently strong seismic waves or long period seismic waves have been observed in various earthquakes that occurred in Japan. As a result improvements of existing seismic isolation systems are deemed necessary. The present study proposed an intelligent seismic isolation system encompassing air bearings and earthquake early warning (EEW) system. Such system exhibits adequate isolation performance. The air bearings are isolation device that may render infinite the superstructure natural period by floating them, and the EEW is applied for a trigger of isolation. This paper illustrates the proposed system and discusses the experimental results of a test carried out with the system. Laboratory tests carried out in the present research demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed base isolated systems and prove its efficacy in mitigating the effects of three-dimensional seismic waves. For example, the system suppressed the horizontal response acceleration of an isolation target to 38% of input acceleration.     

Estimation of local magnitude of rockbursts using strong motion accelerograms in the mines of Kolar Gold Fields

Rockbursts are minor earthquakes induced due to mining operations. The seismic signals recorded using geophones in the near field are generally saturated and are not suitable for estimating the true magnitudes. The strong-motion accelerograms recorded due to rockbursts are therefore used to obtain the Wood-Anderson synthetic seismograms for getting accurate and reliable values of the local magnitudes. Using several typical strong-motion accelerograms of rockbursts in the mines of Kolar Gold Fields, the magnitudes have been computed in the present study. Correlations of peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity with the magnitude, studied for the rockbursts vis-à-vis the natural earthquakes in the Koyna dam area, suggest the mechanical similarity between the two different types of events. The results and findings are described in this paper.     

由深源远震体波记录反演华北北部地壳上地幔速度结构

重点研究的地区为河北省北部包括京津地区，以及山西、内蒙的部分地区，在此区选取了２９个台站；在向东延伸的背景区，选取了６个台站。利用这些台站的深源远震体波记录资料，通过选取介质结构模型，计算理论地震图，与观测图进行拟合，以确定地震台下介质结构的可接受模型。在拟合时，对每个地震台站都选择若干次深源远震的体波记录作为观测图。对每个地震台站一般都算出６０个不同模型的理论图。实际上做出的结果比地壳深，为大约８０ｋｍ（即大致相当于岩石层或称岩石圈）厚度内的地壳上地幔介质结构，它们大都由１０层左右的介质组成。通过波形拟合共给出了上述３５个台站下的壳幔介质分层结构。并由此给出了Ｍｏｈｏ面的轮廓。     

Ground‐motion attenuation relationship for the Sumatran megathrust earthquakes

A representative attenuation relationship is one of the key components required in seismic hazard assessment of a region of interest. Attenuation relationships for peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and response spectral accelerations for Sumatran megathrust earthquakes, covering M_w up to 9.0, are derived based on synthetic seismograms obtained from a finite‐fault kinematic model. The relationships derived are for very hard rock site condition and for a long‐distance range between 200 and 1500 km. They are then validated with recorded data from giant earthquakes on the Sumatran megathrust occurring since year 2000. A close examination of the recorded data also shows that spectral shapes predicted by most of the existing attenuation relationships and that specified in the IBC code are not particularly suitable for sites where potential seismic hazard is dominated by large‐magnitude, distant, earthquakes. Ground motions at a remote site are typically signified by the dominance of long‐period components with periods longer than 1 s, whereas the predominant periods from most of the existing attenuation relationships and the IBC code are shorter than 0.6 s. The shifting of response spectrum towards longer period range for distant earthquakes should be carefully taken into account in the formulation of future seismic codes for Southeast Asia, where many metropolises are located far from active seismic sources. The attenuation relationship derived in the present study can properly reproduce the spectral shape from distant subduction earthquakes, and could hopefully give insights into the formulation of future seismic codes. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Toroidal free oscillations of the Earth observed by a ring laser system: a comparative study

In this study, we explore the potential of measuring systematically the Earth's free oscillations using ring laser gyro (RLG) vertical axis rotational records. The RLG that we use is the vertical axis G-ring laser system of the Geodetic Observatory Wettzell (Germany). In 2009, its signal-to-noise ratio was considerably improved over the broadband frequency range of seismic measurements. Since then, three large magnitude earthquakes have occurred (Samoa Islands 2009; Maule, Chile, 2010; and Tohoku, Japan, 2011), leading to the first direct observations of rotational ground motions induced by toroidal free oscillations of the Earth. We compare these G-ring laser observations with synthetic seismograms computed by summing normal modes. We also analyse amplitude spectra of real and synthetic data to aid in the interpretation of the observations. We show that several toroidal modes are detected by the G-ring laser for earthquakes with a moment magnitude M _W????8.0 and that our observations are in reasonable agreement with the synthetic spectra. We also report evidence for mode coupling in both translation and rotation spectra.     

短周期仪器记录在远震分析中的应用

地震泼由多种频率成份组成,在其传播过程中。由于地球介质的滤波作用,随着传播距离的增大。高频成份逐渐被衰减。周期越大的成份传播越远。因此,在地震观测上,不同频带的地震仪用于观测不同震中距范围的地震,使仪器较好地响应,就我国台网而言,短周期仪用于地方震、近震的监测,中长周期仪和长周期仪用于远震,极远震的监测,其中长周期仪偏重于记录极远震。但作者在实际分析工作中注意到,短周期仪的记录应用于远震,极远震的分析,显示出独特的作用,充分挖掘和利用短仪资料,将会更加丰富远震、极远震的震相资料。本文以高台地震台的资料为依据,从震中距和震级角度,与中长仪和长仪作比较,对短仪记录远震、极远震的震相及特征作了统计分析与初步探讨,并对新疆地区“影区”地震S波的记录、日本地区地震_PPcP等震相的出现提出了现象的存在,给出了相应的观测结果,以待步一步研究。     

Pd-τc相容性检验方法在触发事件判别分析中的应用

结合福建地区地震预警系统的运行情况和处理能力, 利用日本KiK-net台网和福建地震台网记录的天然地震事件和人工爆破事件实测数据, 探讨了P_d-τ_c相容性检验方法在触发事件类型实时判别中应用的可行性． 结果表明, P_d-τ_c相容性检验方法能够较好地区分大震级地方震与误触发事件, 也能对远震事件进行粗略判别, 但对于小震级地方震和人工爆破事件则无法有效判别． 随后, 以P_d-τ_c相容性检验结果为基础, 本文设定强度参数P_d=10-3 cm为界线, 即可从众多触发事件中甄选出可能产生破坏的大震级地方震事件． 本文方法有助于提高触发事件类型判别结果的可靠性、 预警系统的处理效率和系统产出信息的准确度．      

频率域中的合成地震记录

波动理论的合成地震记录是地震资料处理和解释中的重要研究课题。 目前,制作波动理论的合成记录主要是用Trorey的克希霍夫方法,正在研究的有有限差分法和有限元素法。本文提出一种新的方法,在频率域中制作波动理论的合成记录,给出了与克希霍夫绕射波方程等价的频率域中的绕射波方程。在国产DJS-11型计算机上,应用两种绕射波方程实现了合成地震记录,并且进行了比较,认为频率域方法是有效的,可以用于波动方程偏移和地震资料解释,进一步工作有可能获得多层变速模型的波动理论记录。     

Further evidence for radial velocity anomalies in the lower mantle

Summary Wright andLyons (1981) used a least-squares matching technique (LMM) and an adaptive processing method (ADP) to study the behaviour of slowness and azimuth measurements made on two synthetic interfering wavelets having different arrival vectors and onset times. We have applied these results to the analysis of real array seismograms. Some of the effects generated synthetically are frequently observed on real seismograms of earthquakes recorded at Yellowknife at distances close to 50° and 90°. We have also processed sufficient data to illustrate how the interference phenomenon can be used to confirm the presence of radial velocity anomalies in the lower mantle. NumerousP arrivals from South American earthquakes at distances between 78° and 98° suggest the presence of two radial velocity anomalies at depths close to 2400 and 2730 km below the Caribbean region; these anomalies also appear to vary laterally.Contribution No. 864 from the Earth Physics Branch.     

Quantitative archaeoseismological investigation of the Great Theatre of Larissa, Greece

Larissa, the capital of Thessaly, is located in the eastern part of Central Greece, at the southern border of a Late Quarternary graben, the Tyrnavos Basin. Palaeoseismological, morphotectonic, and geophysical investigations as well as historical and instrumental records show evidences for seismic activity in this area. Previous investigations documented the occurrence of several moderate to strong earthquakes during Holocene time on active faults with recurrence intervals of a few thousand years. The historical and instrumental records suggest a period of seismic quiescence during the last 400–500 years. The present archaeoseismological research, based on a multidisciplinary approach is devoted to improve the knowledge on past earthquakes, which occurred in the area. This study focuses on damages observed on the walls of the scene building of the Great Theatre of Larissa. The Theatre was built at the beginning of the third century BC and consists of a semicircular auditorium, an almost circular arena and a main scene building. Archaeological and historical investigations document a partial destruction of the theatre during the second to first century BC. Recent excavations show that the building complex after it was repaired suffered additional structural damages, probably from seismic loading. The damages investigated in detail are displacements, rotations and ruptures of numerous blocks at the walls of the scene building. In order to test the earthquake hypothesis as cause of the damages a simplified seismotectonic model of the Tyrnavos Basin and its surroundings was used with a composite earthquake source model to calculate synthetic seismograms at the Larissa site for various earthquake scenarios. Horizontal to vertical seismic ratio (HVSR) measurements in the theatre and its vicinity were used to estimate local site effects. The synthetic seismograms are then used as input accelerations for a finite element model of the walls, which simulates seismically induced in-plane sliding within the walls. Results show that some of the surrounding faults have the potential to produce seismic ground motion that can induce in-plane sliding of blocks. Model calculations were used to constrain the characteristics of the ground acceleration and infer the causative fault and earthquake by comparing the calculated and observed distribution of the displacements of the blocks. Ground motions with a PGA at the site of 0.62–0.82 g, which could be induced by an M 5.8–6.0 earthquake on the nearby Larissa Fault, would be sufficient to explain the damage.     

Response spectral attenuation relationships for Sumatran-subduction earthquakes and the seismic hazard implications to Singapore and Kuala Lumpur

Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, the capital of Malaysia, may well represent the classic examples of area with low seismic hazard but with high consequence. Both cities are located in a low-seismicity region of Southeast Asia, where active seismic sources are located more than 300 km away. Seismic designs have not been implemented in this seemingly low-hazard region though distant earthquakes in Sumatra had frequently shaken high-rise structures in the two cities. Several studies have been conducted to systematically assess the seismic hazards of Singapore and the Malay Peninsula. The present research particularly addresses issues in deriving a new set of attenuation relationships of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV) and response spectral acceleration (RSA) for the Sumatran-subduction earthquakes. To be relevant for the seismic hazard assessment of the remote metropolises, the derived attenuation relationships cover a long distance range from 150 to 1500 km. The attenuation relationships are derived using synthetic seismograms that account for source and path effects. The uncertainties in rupture parameters, such as stress drop, strike, dip and rake angles, have been defined according to the regional geological and tectonic settings as well as the ruptures of previous earthquakes. The seismic potential of the Sumatran subduction zone are high in the region from 2°N to 5°S as there has been no recurrence of great thrust events since 1861. A large event with M_w greater than 7.8 in this particular subduction zone may be capable of generating destructive ground motions in Singapore and Kuala Lumpur, even at a distance of 700 km.     

Earthquake early warning and operational earthquake forecasting as real-time hazard information to mitigate seismic risk at nuclear facilities

Based on our experience in the project REAKT, we present a methodological framework to evaluate the potential benefits and costs of using earthquake early warning (EEW) and operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) for real-time mitigation of seismic risk at nuclear facilities. We focus on evaluating the reliability, significance and usefulness of the aforementioned real-time risk-mitigation tools and on the communication of real-time earthquake information to end-users. We find that EEW and OEF have significant potential for the reduction of seismic risk at nuclear plants, although much scientific research and testing is still necessary to optimise their operation for these sensitive and highly-regulated facilities. While our test bed was Switzerland, the methodology presented here is of general interest to the community of EEW researchers and end-users and its scope is significantly beyond its specific application within REAKT.     

Verification of precarious rock methodology using shake table tests of rock models

Precariously balanced rocks in seismically active regions are effectively upper-limit strong motion seismoscopes that have been in place for thousands of years. Thus, estimates of the dynamic toppling acceleration of these rocks (through rigid body rocking) can provide constraints on the peak ground accelerations experienced during past earthquakes. We have developed a methodology that uses a two-dimensional numerical code to calculate the dynamic rocking response of precarious rocks to realistic ground acceleration time histories. Statistical analyses of the dynamic response of these rocks to a range of synthetic seismograms, as well as strong motion records, can provide important information about the ground motion attenuation curves and seismic hazard maps. We use shake table tests to investigate the dynamic rocking response of 13 wooden rectangular blocks of various sizes and aspect ratios subjected to realistic seismograms and compare the results with those of numerical tests. Our results indicate good agreement between the shake table and numerical results.     

Simulation of ground motion in the Moscow region using the empirical Green’s function

Historically, the Moscow region regularly experienced rather weak but quite perceptible seismic vibrations produced by intermediate-depth earthquakes of the Vrancea zone (Romania), located at a distance of 1400 km from Moscow. The coincidence of a number of unique factors such as a slowly varying focal depth, predominant source mechanisms, weak attenuation of seismic radiation in the north-northeast direction provide favorable conditions for application of the empirical Green’s function method. Using the digital seismogram of the Vrancea Mw-5.8 earthquake recorded at the Moscow seismic station, we simulated synthetic seismograms of a scenario (expected maximum) earthquake with Mw = 8.0, by application of the empirical Green’s function method adjusted for the given conditions. The calculation procedure was verified using analog records of strong earthquakes available at the Moscow seismic station. Digital records of the Obninsk seismic station included in the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS) system were used for additional control. Here, the scenario earthquake was modeled using the data on a much stronger earthquake of 1990 (MW = 6.9). It is shown that, despite a certain scatter (quite adequately assessed in the scope of the method), the ultimate estimates of expected seismic impacts are quite reliable and can be recommended for practical use.     

九寨沟MS7.0地震强地震动模拟及漳扎镇地震动强度预测

破坏性地震强度预测可用于工程领域抗震设防以及地震危险性分析评估,是防震减灾中一项很重要的基础工作.为了再现九寨沟地震的地震动强度,评估缺失强震记录的九寨章扎台站的地震动强度,本文用经验格林函数法对九寨沟地震进行了数值模拟.选取了震源周边地震动峰值加速度超过10 Gal的10个强震台站进行模拟.因未得到九寨沟地震的余震,初次尝试将汶川地震和定西地震的余震作为格林函数模拟九寨沟地震.模拟结果整体上可以反映各台站地震动的强度特征,尤其是地震动高频成份拟合较好.模拟值的地震动峰值加速度、时程数据、反应谱等与观测值拟合较好.预测结果显示漳扎镇的地震动峰值加速度值约为180~200 Gal.预测结果也表明在缺少大震的余震记录时,经验格林函数法使用其他大震的余震同样可以再现目标地震的强度特征.本研究也为经验格林函数方法在缺乏小震记录地区的使用积累了经验.最后总结了格林函数的选取标准,为经验格林函数方法来预测未来强震动特征积累了经验.     

Realistic Modeling of Seismic Wave Ground Motion in Beijing City

— Algorithms for the calculation of synthetic seismograms in laterally heterogeneous anelastic media have been applied to model the ground motion in Beijing City. The synthetic signals are compared with the few available seismic recordings (1998, Zhangbei earthquake) and with the distribution of observed macroseismic intensity (1976, Tangshan earthquake). The synthetic three-component seismograms have been computed for the Xiji area and Beijing City. The numerical results show that the thick Tertiary and Quaternary sediments are responsible for the severe amplification of the seismic ground motion. Such a result is well correlated with the abnormally high macroseismic intensity zone in the Xiji area associated with the 1976 Tangshan earthquake as well as with the ground motion recorded in Beijing city in the wake of the 1998 Zhangbei earthquake.