基于计算机仿真的火灾时人员安全疏散可靠度分析

火灾中的人员疏散是个复杂的过程,受到诸多因素的共同影响,传统的人员疏散可靠度分析常常忽略这些因素之间的相互作用。为更准确地计算出火灾中人员疏散的可靠度,本文以某地铁车站为例,借助人员疏散仿真软件buildingEXODUS与火灾模拟程序FDS,分别得到人员所需安全疏散时间（RSET）和可利用安全疏散时间（ASET）。在此基础上,构造人员安全疏散极限状态方程,利用一次二阶矩理论求得安全疏散可靠概率。由于能够较好地反映疏散过程中各影响因素之间的相互作用,因此,采用本文提出的可靠度分析方法能够得到更舍理的结果。     

Estimating shaking-induced casualties and building damage for global earthquake events: a proposed modelling approach

Recent earthquakes such as the Haiti earthquake of 12 January 2010 and the Qinghai earthquake on 14 April 2010 have highlighted the importance of rapid estimation of casualties after the event for humanitarian response. Both of these events resulted in surprisingly high death tolls, casualties and survivors made homeless. In the Mw = 7.0 Haiti earthquake, over 200,000 people perished with more than 300,000 reported injuries and 2 million made homeless. The Mw = 6.9 earthquake in Qinghai resulted in over 2,000 deaths with a further 11,000 people with serious or moderate injuries and 100,000 people have been left homeless in this mountainous region of China. In such events relief efforts can be significantly benefitted by the availability of rapid estimation and mapping of expected casualties. This paper contributes to ongoing global efforts to estimate probable earthquake casualties very rapidly after an earthquake has taken place. The analysis uses the assembled empirical damage and casualty data in the Cambridge Earthquake Impacts Database (CEQID) and explores data by event and across events to test the relationships of building and fatality distributions to the main explanatory variables of building type, building damage level and earthquake intensity. The prototype global casualty estimation model described here uses a semi-empirical approach that estimates damage rates for different classes of buildings present in the local building stock, and then relates fatality rates to the damage rates of each class of buildings. This approach accounts for the effect of the very different types of buildings (by climatic zone, urban or rural location, culture, income level etc), on casualties. The resulting casualty parameters were tested against the overall casualty data from several historical earthquakes in CEQID; a reasonable fit was found.     

地震信息社会服务与地震安全探讨

提高地震安全,减轻地震灾害造成的经济损失和人员伤亡,地震信息社会服务是不可缺少的途径。地震信息主要包括法规建设、地震监测、震害防御和应急救援资料,服务内容包括法规宣传和普及、地震灾害影响服务、工程建设监管服务和防灾避震服务等。通过地震信息社会服务,可以增强社会防灾意识,提高建设工程安全,减轻地震灾害损失。     

Urban scenarios modifications due to the earthquake: ruins formation criteria and interactions with pedestrians’ evacuation

One of the most influencing elements in inhabitants’ earthquake safety definition is represented by the interactions between people and post-event environment in urban scenarios. Understanding and simulating rules for pedestrians’ motion in earthquake evacuation could be useful to inquire the risk assessment introducing the “human” factor influence: integrated “risk maps” could be realized by combining results of similar analyses with the traditional site hazard, buildings vulnerability and exposition indices. This work proposes an innovative approach based on the analysis of these interactions. Two experimentally-based activities are required: an analysis of human behaviors towards the post-earthquake environment; a relation for defining environmental modifications. Results firstly show a summary of man-environment interactions in earthquake evacuations. A possible criterion for path choice in evacuation is also numerically defined. A theoretical agent-based model is developed on these bases and summarizes phases, motion rules and man-environment interactions in earthquake pedestrians’ evacuation in urban scenarios. Secondly, quick criteria for scenario modifications involving ruins formation are proposed and evaluated: for each building, the percentages of internal and external ruins area is a function of its vulnerability and the expected earthquake Richter magnitude. Moreover, the external ruins formation criterion is validated by comparing predicted and effective values of ruins area depth in real cases. The model could be proposed as a tool for evaluating probable pedestrians’ choices in post-event scenarios, in order to reduce the interferences between the built environment and the evacuation process through interventions on buildings, urban fabric and strategies for emergency management.     

京津冀地区再现三河-平谷8.0级地震的人员伤亡分析

京津冀地区1679年曾发生三河－平谷8.0级大地震,造成了严重的人员伤亡,严重影响当时的社会经济。本文对三河－平谷8.0级地震进行原地再现,分析所造成的人员伤亡。首先,基于最新的建筑物竣工面积统计资料更新建筑物公里网格数据,基于普查数据对人口公里网格进行了更新,并采用热力图对人口的时空流动进行了预测,得到了符合当地特征的承灾体的数量和分布。在此基础上,采用分区分类地震易损性模型和人员伤亡评估模型,对京津冀地区遭受三河－平谷8.0级设定地震的人员伤亡进行了分析。分析结果表明:京津冀地区现今的人口数量相对于1679年成百倍增加,但人员伤亡率大幅降低     

商业建筑室内地震应急避难场所空间设计

城市商业建筑避难所对保障人们生命安全和财产非常重要。室内应急避难所的空间布局和责任分区是一个涉及人口密集程度、建筑内环境、疏散方式和商业场所的适应性等因素的问题,我国针对该项目的设计和研究尚不完善,这对商业建筑受灾时人员的安全有很大威胁。本文提出商业建筑室内地震应急避难场所空间设计,从疏散效率角度出发,设计一个以P-中值模型为基础的避难所最佳分区模型,通过对模型分析和计算,得出商业建筑隔震层的最佳位置,在确定隔震层位置后,对应急避难所的室内空间进行设计,最后通过分析避难所的可达性,判定该避难所设计是否合理。通过仿真实验验证,本文设计的应急避难所辐射面积广,服务人数较大,总体性能较好,可为商业建筑避难设计领域提供有力的帮助。     

1999年以来地震生命损失评估研究新进展

地震后造成人员伤亡的影响因素有很多,包括震级、烈度、人口、房屋破坏程度、与断层的距离、经济发展状况等.本文总结了1999年以来国内外地震生命损失研究中的若干方法和模型,介绍了这些评估方法在地震后的应用情况,并进行了适当的总结.最后提出了人员伤亡评估的发展趋势.     

震后典型建筑物倒塌分类及救援特点分析

震后建筑物倒塌造成人员埋压,快速的搜索与营救是有效减少伤亡的重要途径之一。本文通过研究震后典型建筑物倒塌类型,从建筑物垂直和水平破坏角度出发,提出一套三级分类体系,并对每类倒塌建筑物的受力及生存空间进行讨论。同时结合大量文献及汶川地震救援案例资料,重点分析总结各类建筑物救援时的路线选择、救援通道建立、被困人员施救等技术特点。     

山地小城市避震疏散通道通行能力评估及选择研究 ——以昆明东川城区为例

安全快速的避震疏散通道是新时代背景下提高城市抗灾韧性水平的基础保障,灾时充分发挥避震疏散通道的可靠性和时效性将减轻城市人员伤亡.选取山地小城市昆明东川城区为研究区域,通过系统分析避震疏散通道影响因素,对灾后避震疏散通道的通行能力进行评估,基于ArcGIS建立人口集聚点与避震疏散场所(OD)的归属关系,并在此基础上通过遗...     

A GIS-based earthquake damage assessment and settlement methodology

Earthquakes have a greater effect on society than most people think. These effects range from structural damages to economic impacts and fatalities. An earthquake only lasts for a few seconds and the aftershocks may continue for days, but the damage does continue for years. Residential site safety and earthquake damage assessment studies play a crucial role in developing reliable rehabilitation and development programs, improving preparedness and mitigating losses in urbanized areas. The extremely densely populated metropolis of Tehran, which totals of 7,768,561 for 22 districts (according to the 2006 population census), coupled with the fragility of houses and infrastructure, highlight the necessity of a reliable earthquake damage assessment based on essential datasets, such as building resistance attributes, building population, soil structures, streets network and hazardous facilities. This paper presents a GIS-based model for earthquake loss estimation for a district in Tehran, Iran. Damages to buildings were calculated only for the ground shaking effect of one of the region's most active faults, the Mosha Fault in a likely earthquake scenario. Earthquake intensity for each building location was estimated based on attenuation relation and the ratio of damage was obtained from customized fragility curves. Human casualties and street blockages caused by collapsed buildings were taken into account in this study, as well. Finally, accessibility verification found locations without clear passages for temporary settlements by buildings via open streets. The model was validated using the 2003 Bam earthquake damages. The proposed model enables the decision-makers to make more reliable decisions based on various spatial datasets before and after an earthquake occurs. The results of the earthquake application showed total losses as follows: structural damages reaching 64% of the building stock, a death rate of 33% of all the residents, a severe injury rate reaching 27% of the population and street closures upwards of 22% due to building collapse.     

印度锡金邦6.8级地震中国西藏地区民房震害分析.

2011年9月18日印度锡金邦发生6.8级地震,对我国西藏地区造成较大人员伤亡与民房破坏.本文在现场地震烈度调查和地震损失评估基础上,对灾区民房震害进行了分析.给出了灾区民房的震害特点、抗震设防中存在的问题和对策建议.提出了西藏民居抗震设计的基本原则,强调了民居抗震中的概念设计.根据相应的抗震措施和原则,在不增加太多费用的情况下可以大幅提高房屋的抗震能力,减少地震人员伤亡和损失,促进西藏地区经济的和谐发展.     

地震人员伤亡评估理论及应用研究

地震是造成我国巨大人员伤亡的主要灾害之一,震后人员伤亡的快速评估对于应急抗震救援工作具有重要指导意义。通过分析影响地震灾害人员伤亡的主要因素,调查统计不同使用功能建筑物中人员密度、不同时间段人员在室率及不同结构破坏状态下的伤亡率,建立地震人员伤亡计算模型。基于实验数据所得的地震易损性曲线数据库对建筑物进行结构易损性分析,用研发的中国地震灾害损失评估系统软件（CEDLAS）,对西安市灞桥区进行震后人员伤亡评估,并与汶川地震实际震害数据和其他经验模型对比,验证了该理论方法的可行性及合理性,为震后政府启动地震应急预案和组织开展抗震救灾工作提供参考。     

基于地区差异性修正因素的川滇地区地震人员伤亡动态评估方法研究

基于建筑物破坏的地震人员伤亡快速评估方法是一种静态评估方法,具有较大的局限性,因此迫切需要建立地震人员伤亡动态评估方法以提高评估结果的有效性.以川滇地区为例,基于历史震例人员伤亡资料和相关科研成果,利用统计分析、案例对比法以及大数据分析等方法,从影响人员易损性因素的地区差异性角度研究地震人员伤亡动态修正方法.为此提出了...     

基于泸定6.8级地震某二层混凝土框架结构损伤分析

2022年9月5日四川甘孜州泸定县发生6.8级地震,相关台站记录到水平向地震动峰值加速度达到891cm/s²,竖直向地震动峰值加速度为175cm/s²,地震造成严重人员伤亡和建筑物倒塌。为进一步了解本次地震对建筑物破坏作用,采用大型通用有限元软件SAUSG2022,对震中某二层钢筋混凝土框架结构进行弹塑性动力时程分析。结果表明,在泸定地震动作用下,该建筑物损伤严重,有倒塌风险,损伤部位与损伤程度与现场情况基本相符。而采用隔震技术后,分析结果表明在泸定地震动作用下建筑物损伤轻微。     

Earthquake risk assessment of buildings accounting for human evacuation

A primary goal of earthquake engineering is to protect society from the possible negative consequences of future earthquakes. Conventionally, this goal has been achieved indirectly by reducing seismic damage of the built environment through better building codes, or more comprehensibly, by minimizing seismic risk. However, the effect that building damage has on occupants is not explicitly taken into account while designing infrastructure. Consequently, this paper introduces a conceptual framework and numerical algorithm to assess earthquake risk on building occupants during seismic events, considering the evacuation process of the structure. The framework combines probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, inelastic structural response analysis and damage assessment, and couples these results with the response of evacuating agents. The results are cast as probability distributions of variables that measure the overall performance of the system (e.g., evacuation times, number of injured people, and repair costs) for specific time windows. As a testbed, the framework was applied to the response of a reinforced concrete frame building that exemplifies the use of all steps of the methodology. The results suggest that this seismic risk evaluation framework of structural systems that combine the response of a physical model with human agents can be extended to a wide variety of other situations, including the assessment of mitigation actions in communities and people to improve their earthquake resilience. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

城市典型建筑地震损失预测方法II：地震损失估计

本文在文[1]的基础上，给出城市典型建筑地震损失估计方法。首先，给出砖砌体结构、排架结构和钢筋混凝土结构的破坏分级描述；其次，介绍城市地震人员伤亡及经济损失估计方法。结合文[1]的结构易损性分析方法，以宁波市为例，给出了市区典型建筑的震害矩阵，并对地震作用下的人员伤亡和财产损失进行了估计。     

主成分分析法和遗传算法优化的支持向量机模型在地震伤亡人数预测中的应用

为有效解决地震伤亡人数预测所需影响因子多、运算量大、模型训练烦琐等问题,构建了主成分分析法(PCA)和遗传算法(GA)优化的支持向量机(SVM)模型,采用PCA对地震伤亡人数影响因子进行降维以去除贡献率较低的主成分,将贡献率较大的主成分作为支持向量机的输入变量,以地震伤亡人数作为输出变量,利用GA对SVM模型性能参数进行优化,建立基于PCA-GA-SVM的地震伤亡人数预测模型,并对测试样本进行预测,结果表明:与SVM模型、 GA-SVM模型和PCA-GA-BP模型相比, PCA-GA-SVM模型的预测准确率和运行效率分别提高4.73%、 1.14%、 9.99%和47.05%、 36.76%、 44.55%。结果显示, PCA-GA-SVM模型预测精度高,泛化能力强,能够科学合理地对地震伤亡人数作出预测。     

海城市南台镇地震经济损失预测与人员伤亡的估计

以各类房屋地震易损性分析结果为基础,结合各类房屋平均造价、室内固定资产和 室内停留人数的调查资料。用地震造成经济损失预测方法和人员伤亡经验公式,进行经济损 失预测和人员伤亡评估．最终给出在地震烈度ＶＩ至Ｘ度下的经济损失值和人员伤亡数．     

评估地震人员伤亡的软件系统

设计了地震人员伤亡评估系统软件包，并利用该系统对北京地区假定地震发生后的人员伤亡进行了预测。为设计该系统，建立了北京地区的人口数据库、唐山和邢台地震人员伤亡数据库，对一天中人在不同时间段逗留在房屋内部的概率进行了讨论，从而建立了地震人员伤亡评估的数学模型。该系统作为地震灾害评估系统的子系统，主要用于地震人员伤亡的快速评估     

校园人群应急疏散行为及其影响因素研究

校园作为城市高密度地区的典型区域,建筑密度高、道路错综曲折、灾后疏散难度大。以南京中心城区某高校为实证研究案例,展开问卷调查;采用皮尔逊卡方检验法,对校园人群安全意识及疏散行为和性别、年龄、受教育程度及参加疏散演练次数等人员特性信息进行交叉分析,得到存在相关性的变量组;基于Logistic回归模型,建立了人群特征、安全意识评价指标对校园人群疏散行为及心理影响的评价模型,识别疏散行为影响因素,以及各因素的影响程度大小。结果表明:年龄、性别以及参加过疏散演练的次数是影响人群安全意识及疏散行为的显著相关因素,学历是相关因素;地震灾害下受访人群对避难场所的选择偏好为:场地型避难场所>建筑型避难场所>地下空间;参加疏散演练的次数,安全意识、风险认知对灾害发生时的人群疏散行为有显著影响。