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1.
The M w 8.6 Indian Ocean earthquake occurred on April 11, 2012 near the NW junction of three plates viz. Indian, Australian and Sunda plate, which caused widespread coseismic displacements and Coulomb stress changes. We analyzed the GPS data from three IGS sites PBRI, NTUS & COCO and computed the coseismic horizontal displacements. In order to have in-depth understanding of the physics of earthquake processes and probabilistic hazard, we estimated the coseismic displacements and associated Coulomb stress changes from two rectangular parallel fault geometries, constrained by Global Positioning System (GPS) derived coseismic displacements. The Coulomb stress changes following the earthquake found to be in the range of 5 to ?4 bar with maximum displacement of ~11 m near the epicenter. We find that most of the aftershocks occurred in the areas of increased Coulomb stress and concentrated in three clusters. The temporal variation of the aftershocks, not conformed to modified Omori’s law, speculating poroelastic processes. It is also ascertained that the spatio-temporal transient stress changes may promote the occurrence of the subsequent earthquakes and enhance the seismic risk in the region.  相似文献   

2.
Poroelastic relaxation and aftershocks of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake, India   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
We analyse aftershocks of the 26 January 2001 Bhuj earthquake, India, that were recorded for 10 weeks following the mainshock. We calculate undrained or instantaneous pore pressure and change in Coulomb stress due to the earthquake and their poroelastic relaxation in the following 10 weeks period. Almost all aftershocks occurred in the region of coseismic dilatation. In the subsequent period, pore pressure increased through relaxation in the dilatation region which further modified coseismic Coulomb stress. Maximum increase in pore pressure is estimated to be about 0.7 MPa in 60 days time following the mainshock. Correlation between the zones of increased pore pressure and postseismic Coulomb stress with that of aftershocks, suggests a definite role of fluid diffusion in their delayed triggering.  相似文献   

3.
A growing body of evidence suggests that fluids are intimately linked to a variety of faulting processes. Yet, the particular mechanisms through which fluids and associated parameters influence the stress regime and thus the seismicity of a particular area are not well understood.We carry out a study of the spatio-temporal behavior of earthquakes, fluid-related parameters (groundwater levels) and meteorological observables (precipitation) in the swarm earthquake area of Bad Reichenhall, southeastern Germany. The small volume in which the earthquakes take place, almost yearly occurring earthquake swarms and a permanent, seismo-meteorological monitoring network, provide nearly controlled experimental conditions to study the physics of earthquake swarms and to infer characteristic properties of the seismogenic crust.In this paper we (1) describe this fairly unique study area in terms of geology, seismicity and atmospheric conditions; (2) present two cases of earthquake swarms that seem to follow above-average rainfall events; and (3) examine the observed migration of hypocenters with a simple pore pressure diffusion model.We find significant correlation of seismicity with rainfall and groundwater level increase, and estimate an average hydraulic diffusivity of D = 0.75 ± 0.35 m2/s for Mt. Hochstaufen in 2002.  相似文献   

4.
Following the 1999 Mw 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake, a large amount of seismicity occurred in the Nantou region of central Taiwan. Among the seismic activities, eight Mw  5.8 earthquakes took place following the Chi-Chi earthquake, whereas only four earthquakes with comparable magnitudes took place from 1900 to 1998. Since the seismicity rate during the Chi-Chi postseismic period has never returned to the background level, such seismicity activation cannot simply be attributed to modified Omori’s Law decay. In this work, we attempted to associate seismic activities with stress evolution. Based on our work, it appears that the spatial distribution of the consequent seismicity can be associated with increasing coseismic stress. On the contrary, the stress changes imparted by the afterslip; lower crust–upper mantle viscoelastic relaxation; and sequent events resulted in a stress drop in most of the study region. Understanding seismogenic mechanisms in terms of stress evolution would be beneficial to seismic hazard mitigation.  相似文献   

5.
大地震导致的同震及震后效应,对于分析不同地震之间的相互影响及区域地震危险性等有着重要的作用.文中开发了模拟地震同震及震后效应的三维黏弹性有限元程序,通过计算走滑断层震例(概念性模型)引起的同震及震后效应,并与解析/半解析解进行对比,验证了程序的可靠性.同时基于概念性模型,分析了不同介质参数对同震及震后的地表变形的影响....  相似文献   

6.
The quantitative parameters of the self-similarity of the aftershocks of the Japanese earthquake on March 11, 2011 were obtained. The parameters p in the Omori law (1.06), b in the Gutenberg-Richter law (0.61), and the fractal dimension (D) of the earthquake epicenters (1.52) were determined. Self-similarity is manifested in a range of two orders of temporal and spatial scales and four units of magnitude. The stability in time of parameter p and spatial variations in b and p parameters were revealed.  相似文献   

7.
Results from a recent earthquake in the Eastern Pyrenees are presented and the seismotectonics of the region is analyzed from the presently available data. On 26 September 1984 an earthquake (ML = 4.4) took place in the area of the historical destructive earthquake of 1428. Several portable stations installed in the epicentral area to record aftershocks permitted of defining a precise location at 42°19.2′N, 2°10.2′E and 5 km depth. A maximum felt intensity of V (MSK) is obtained from macroseismic data. The epicentral location lies within a block bounded by E-W-trending structures and the focal solution shows right-lateral shearing with a NW-SE pressure axis.The seismicity in the Eastern Pyrenees shows a complex pattern which can be associated with both E-W fractures and NE-SW fault systems. Focal solutions of another two recent earthquakes of ML ~ 4, with differences in horizontal pressure axis, are also discussed.  相似文献   

8.
The status of Reservoir Induced Seismicity (RIS) has been reviewed periodically (Rothé, 1968, 1973; Gupta and Rastogi, 1976; Simpson, 1976; Packer et al., 1979). In the present paper, the significant work carried out during the last three years on RIS is reviewed.An earthquake of magnitude occurred on November 14, 1981 in the vicinity of Aswan Lake, Egypt, 17 years after the filling started in 1964. This event occurred 4 days after the seasonal maximum in the reservoir water level and was followed by a long sequence of aftershocks. Another event of magnitude occurred in the vicinity of Aswan Lake on August 20, 1982. Results of preliminary investigations indicate that this seismic activity is reservoir induced. Recent analyses of induced seismic events at Nurek Reservoir U.S.S.R., show that the second stage of filling during August to December 1976, increasing the maximum depth from 120 m to 200 m, was accompanied by an intense burst of shallow seismic activity. An outward migration from the centre of the reservoir, possibly associated with diffusion of pore pressure, is revealed by the temporal distribution of earthquake foci. A variety of investigations including the in situ measurement of tectonic stress, pore pressure, permeability, distribution of faults, etc., in addition to monitoring seismicity, have been undertaken in the vicinity of the Monticello Reservoir, South Carolina. The largest reservoir induced earthquake is predicted not to exceed magnitude 5.The Koyna Reservoir, India, continues to be the most outstanding example of RIS. Three earthquakes of magnitude 5 occurred in September 1980. Earthquakes of magnitude 4 occur frequently in the vicinity of Koyna, the latest being on February 5, 1983. Events that occurred during the period 1967–1973 have been relocated using better procedures and are found to be much shallower and the epicentres less diffused. Location of 12 earthquakes of Ms 4.0, their foreshocks and aftershocks, that occurred during 1973–1976, composite focal mechanism solutions and related studies are consistent with the delineation of a N-S trending fault through the reservoir area. In a couple of interesting studies it has been demonstrated that earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 in the Koyna region are usually preceded by several magnitude 4 earthquakes in the preceding fortnight. Also, a rate of loading of Koyna reservoir of at least 40 ft/week appears to be a necessary, although not sufficient, condition for the occurrence of magnitude 5 earthquakes. Smooth filling/emptying appears to be the key to reduce the hazard of RIS.A map and a table of the reported cases of reservoir induced changes in seismicity through 1982 have been compiled.  相似文献   

9.
We present the seismic energy, strain energy, frequency–magnitude relation (b-value) and decay rate of aftershocks (p-value) for the aftershock sequences of the Andaman–Sumatra earthquakes of December 26, 2004 (M w 9.3) and March 28, 2005 (M w 8.7). The energy released in aftershocks of 2004 and 2005 earthquake was 0.135 and 0.365% of the energy of the respective mainshocks, while the strain release in aftershocks was 39 and 71% for the two earthquakes, respectively. The b-value and p-value indicate normal value of about 1. All these parameters are in normal range and indicate normal stress patterns and mechanical properties of the medium. Only the strain release in aftershocks was considerable. The fourth largest earthquake in this region since 2004 occurred in September 2007 off the southern coast of Island of Sumatra, generating a relatively minor tsunami as indicated by sea level gauges. The maximum wave amplitude as registered by the Padang, tide gauge, north of the earthquake epicenter was about 60 cm. TUNAMI-N2 model was used to investigate ability of the model to capture the minor tsunami and its effect on the eastern Indian Coast. A close comparison of the observed and simulated tsunami generation, propagation and wave height at tide gauge locations showed that the model was able to capture the minor tsunami phases. The directivity map shows that the maximum tsunami energy was in the southwest direction from the strike of the fault. Since the path of the tsunami for Indian coastlines is oblique, there were no impacts along the Indian coastlines except near the coast of epicentral region.  相似文献   

10.
Physical and stochastic models of earthquake clustering   总被引:4,自引:2,他引:4  
The phenomenon of earthquake clustering, i.e., the increase of occurrence probability for seismic events close in space and time to other previous earthquakes, has been modeled both by statistical and physical processes.From a statistical viewpoint the so-called epidemic model (ETAS) introduced by Ogata in 1988 and its variations have become fairly well known in the seismological community. Tests on real seismicity and comparison with a plain time-independent Poissonian model through likelihood-based methods have reliably proved their validity.On the other hand, in the last decade many papers have been published on the so-called Coulomb stress change principle, based on the theory of elasticity, showing qualitatively that an increase of the Coulomb stress in a given area is usually associated with an increase of seismic activity. More specifically, the rate-and-state theory developed by Dieterich in the ′90s has been able to give a physical justification to the phenomenon known as Omori law. According to this law, a mainshock is followed by a series of aftershocks whose frequency decreases in time as an inverse power law.In this study we give an outline of the above-mentioned stochastic and physical models, and build up an approach by which these models can be merged in a single algorithm and statistically tested. The application to the seismicity of Japan from 1970 to 2003 shows that the new model incorporating the physical concept of the rate-and-state theory performs not worse than the purely stochastic model with two free parameters only. The numerical results obtained in these applications are related to physical characters of the model as the stress change produced by an earthquake close to its edges and to the A and σ parameters of the rate-and-state constitutive law.  相似文献   

11.
The b-value of the Gutenberg–Richter’s frequency–magnitude relation and the p-value of the modified Omori law, which describes the decay rate of aftershock activity, were investigated for more than 500 aftershocks in the Aksehir-Afyon graben (AAG) following the 15 December 2000 Sultandagi–Aksehir and the 3 February 2002 Çay–Eber and Çobanlar earthquakes. We used the Kandilli Observatory’s catalog, which contains records of aftershocks with magnitudes ≥2.5. For the Çobanlar earthquake, the estimated b-values for three aftershock sequences are in the range 0.34 ≤  b ≤ 2.85, with the exception of the one that occurred during the first hour (4.77), while the obtained p-values are in the range 0.44 ≤ p ≤ 1.77. The aftershocks of the Sultandagi earthquake have a high p-value, indicating fast decay of the aftershock activity. A regular increase of b can be observed, with b < 1.0 after 0.208 days for the Çay–Eber earthquake. A systematic and similar increase and decrease pattern exists for the b- and p-values of the Çobanlar earthquakes during the first 5 days.  相似文献   

12.
Abstract: There were huge life and property losses during the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008. Strain fluctuation curves were completely recorded at stress observatory stations in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau and its surroundings in the process of the earthquake. This paper introduces the geological background of the Wenchuan earthquake and the profile of in-situ stress monitoring stations. In particular, data of 174 earthquakes (Ms4.0-Ms8.5) were processed and analyzed with various methods, which were recorded at the Shandan station from August 2007 to December 2008. The results were compared with other seismic data, and further analyses were done for the recoded strain seismic waves, co-seismic strain stepovers, pre-earthquake strain valleys, Earth’s free oscillations before and after the earthquake and their physical implications. During the Wenchuan earthquake, the strainmeter recorded a huge extensional strain of 70 seconds, which shows that the Wenchuan earthquake is a rupture process predominated by thrusting. Significant precursory strain anomalies were detected 48 hours, 30 hours, 8 hours and 37 minutes before the earthquake. The anomalies are very high and their forms are very similar to that of the main shock. Similar anomalies can also be found in strain curves of other shocks greater than Ms7.0, indicating that such anomalies are prevalent before a great earthquake. In this paper, it is shown that medium aftershocks (Ms5.5-6.0) can also cause Earth’s free oscillations. Study of free oscillations is of great significance to understand the internal structure of the Earth and focal mechanisms of earthquakes and to recognize slow shocks, thus providing a scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of geological disasters and the prediction of future earthquakes.  相似文献   

13.
Wide-band magnetotelluric (MT) data were collected on an east–west profile, approximately perpendicular to the local strike of the Chelungpu thrust, through the hypocentral area of the Chi-Chi earthquake for imaging the seismogenic structure. MT data were then inverted for two-dimensional resistivity models plus best-fitting static shift parameters using a nonlinear conjugate gradient algorithm that minimizes the sum of the normalized data misfits and the smoothness of the model. As shown in the inverted 2D resistivity models presented in this paper, an electrical conductor beside the hypocenter of the Chi-Chi earthquake indicates that deep-crustal fluids may participate in the rupture process of the Chi-Chi earthquake. A striking spatial correlation between the crustal conductor and occurrence of aftershocks beneath the Chelungpu fault suggests a postseismic pore pressure adjustment ongoing after the mainshock. Additionally, the hypocenter exhibits an electrical resistive zone, consistent very well with a predicted compact zone from a crustal deformation and transient fluid flow modeling.  相似文献   

14.
Secondary consolidation of clay soil is considered as a result of anomalous diffusion of pore water pressure from the micropores to the macropores. By using simplified pore geometry, a heuristic approach allows us to infer the expression of the associated rate of vertical secondary deformation written as a fractional derivative of the pore pressure. The insertion of this expression into the 1D Terzaghi's theory leads to a particular type of time‐fractional diffusion equation of the pore pressure that is solved semi‐analytically. The advantage of such theoretical approach stems from the concise and compact way of treating the secondary consolidation. Only two additional parameters are needed: the fractional order, ν, and the fractional viscosity factor, θ, both accounting for the physicochemical interactions between pore fluid and clay particles. This theoretical approach is tested on experimental data obtained from the Cubzac‐les‐Ponts clay soil intensively studied for secondary consolidation. This application shows a good agreement between the data and the predicted values confirming the interest of the initial assumption and the use of the fractional derivatives formalism. Moreover, good correlations between the inverted fractional parameters and the empirical secondary consolidation index Cα measured independently are obtained: the fractional order ν, if experimentally calibrated, can be used as a reasonable estimator of the slope of the secondary consolidation portion of consolidation curve. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
We report an empirical determination of the probability density functions Pdata(r) of the number r of earthquakes in finite space–time windows for the California catalog for different space (5 × 5 to 50 × 50 km2) and time intervals (0.1 to 1000 days). The data can be represented by asymptotic power law tails together with several cross-overs reasonably explained by one of the most used reference model in seismology (ETAS), which assumes that each earthquake can trigger other earthquakes according to complex cascades. These results are useful to constrain the physics of earthquakes and to estimate the performance of forecasting models of seismicity.  相似文献   

16.
We investigate spatial clustering of 2414 aftershocks along the Izmit Mw = 7.4 August 17, 1999 earthquake rupture zone. 25 days prior to the Düzce earthquake Mw = 7.2 (November 12, 1999), we analyze two spatial clusters, namely Sakarya (SC) and Karadere–Düzce (KDC). We determine the earthquake frequency–magnitude distribution (b-value) for both clusters. We find two high b-value zones in SC and one high b-value zone in KDC which are in agreement with large coseismic surface displacements along the Izmit rupture. The b-values are significantly lower at the eastern end of the Izmit rupture where the Düzce mainshock occurred. These low b-values at depth are correlated with low postseismic slip rate and positive Coloumb stress change along KDC. Since low b-values are hypothesized with high stress levels, we propose that at the depth of the Düzce hypocenter (12.5 km), earthquakes are triggered at higher stresses compared to shallower crustal earthquake. The decrease in b-value from the Karadere segment towards the Düzce Basin supports this low b-value high stress hypothesis at the eastern end of the Izmit rupture. Consequently, we detect three asperity regions which are correlated with high b-value zones along the Izmit rupture. According to aftershock distribution the half of the Düzce fault segment was active before the 12 November 1999 Düzce mainshock. This part is correlated with low b-values which mean high stress concentration in the Düzce Basin. This high density aftershock activity presumably helped to trigger the Düzce event (Mw = 7.2) after the Izmit Mw 7.4 mainshock.  相似文献   

17.
The Van earthquake (M W 7.1, 23 October 2011) in E-Anatolia is typical representative of intraplate earthquakes. Its thrust focal character and aftershock seismicity pattern indicate the most prominent type of compound earthquakes due to its multifractal dynamic complexity and uneven compressional nature, ever seen all over Turkey. Seismicity pattern of aftershocks appears to be invariably complex in its overall characteristics of aligned clustering events. The population and distribution of the aftershock events clearly exhibit spatial variability, clustering-declustering and intermittency, consistent with multifractal scaling. The sequential growth of events during time scale shows multifractal behavior of seismicity in the focal zone. The results indicate that the extensive heterogeneity and time-dependent strength are considered to generate distinct aftershock events. These factors have structural impacts on intraplate seismicity, suggesting multifractal and unstable nature of the Van event. Multifractal seismicity is controlled by complex evolution of crustal-scale faulting, mechanical heterogeneity and seismic deformation anisotropy. Overall seismicity pattern of aftershocks provides the mechanism for strain softening process to explain the principal thrusting event in the Van earthquake. Strain localization with fault weakening controls the seismic characterization of Van earthquake and contributes to explain the anomalous occurrence of aftershocks and intraplate nature of the Van earthquake.  相似文献   

18.
Hydroacoustic data from autonomous arrays and the U.S. Navy's Sound Surveillance System (SOSUS) provide an opportunity to examine the temporal and spatial properties of seismicity along portions of the slow-spreading Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR), intermediate-spreading Juan de Fuca Ridge (JdFR) and fast-spreading East Pacific Rise (EPR). Aftershock and foreshock events are selected from the hydroacoustic earthquake catalog using single-link cluster (SLC) analysis, with a combined space–time metric. In the regions examined, hydroacoustic data improve the completeness level of the earthquake catalog by 1.5–2.0 orders of magnitude, allowing the decay constant, p, of the modified Omori law (MOL) to be determined for individual sequences. A non-parametric goodness-of-fit test indicates six of the seven sequences examined are described well by a MOL model. The p-values obtained for individual ridge and transform sequences using hydroacoustic data are larger than that previously estimated from the analysis of a stacked sequence generated from teleseismic data. For three sequences along the Siqueiros, Discovery and western Blanco Transforms, p-values are estimated to be 0.94–1.29. The spatial distribution of aftershocks suggests that the mainshock rupture is constrained by intra-transform spreading centers at these locations. An aftershock sequence following a 7.1Ms thrust event near the northern edge of the Easter Microplate exhibits p=1.02±0.11. Within the sequence, aftershocks are located to the north of a large topographic ridge, which may represent the surface expression of the shallow-dipping fault that ruptured during the mainshock. Two aftershock sequences near 24°25′N and 16°35′N on the MAR exhibit higher p-values, 1.74±0.23 and 2.37±1.65, although the latter estimate is not well constrained because of the small number of aftershocks. Larger p-values along the ridge crest might reflect a hotter thermal regime in this setting. Additional monitoring, however, will be needed to determine if p-value differences between the ridge and transform sequences are robust. A 1999 sequence on the Endeavour segment of the JdFR, which has been correlated with changes in the hydrothermal system, is described poorly by the MOL model. The failure of the MOL model, the anomalously large number of earthquakes within the sequence and absence of a clearly dominant mainshock are inconsistent with aftershock activity and the simple tectonic origin that has been proposed previously for this sequence.  相似文献   

19.
Öncel  A. O.  Alptekin  Ö. 《Natural Hazards》1999,19(1):1-11
In order to investigate the effect of aftershocks on earthquake hazard estimation, earthquake hazard parameters (m, b and Mmax) have been estimated by the maximum likelihood method from the main shocks catalogue and the raw earthquakes catalogue for the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). The main shocks catalogue has been compiled from the raw earthquake catalogue by eliminating the aftershocks using the window method. The raw earthquake catalogue consisted of instrumentally detected earthquakes between 1900 and 1992, and historical earthquakes that occurred between 1000–1900. For the events of the mainshock catalogue the Poisson process is valid and for the raw earthquake catalogue it does not fit. The paper demonstrates differences in the hazard outputs if on one hand the main catalogues and on the other hand the raw catalogue is used. The maximum likelihood method which allows the use of the mixed earthquake catalogue containing incomplete (historical) and complete (instrumental) earthquake data is used to determine the earthquake hazard parameters. The maximum regional magnitude (Mmax, the seismic activity rate (m), the mean return period (R) and the b value of the magnitude-frequency relation have been estimated for the 24°–31° E, 31°–41° E, 41°–45° E sections of the North Anatolian Fault Zone from the raw earthquake catalogue and the main shocks catalogue. Our results indicate that inclusion of aftershocks changes the b value and the seismic activity rate m depending on the proportion of aftershocks in a region while it does not significantly effect the value of the maximum regional magnitude since it is related to the maximum observed magnitude. These changes in the earthquake hazard parameters caused the return periods to be over- and underestimated for smaller and larger events, respectively.  相似文献   

20.
Iceland has been subjected to destructive earthquakes and volcanic eruptions throughout history. Such events are often preceded by changes in earthquake activity over varying timescales. Although most seismicity is confined to micro-earthquakes, large earthquakes have occurred within populated regions. Following the most recent hazardous earthquakes in 2000, the Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) developed an early warning and information system (EWIS) Web-site for viewing near-real-time seismicity in Iceland. Here we assess Web-site usage data in relation to earthquake activity, as recorded by the South Iceland Lowland (SIL) seismic network. Between March 2005 and May 2006 the SIL seismic network recorded 12,583 earthquakes. During this period, the EWIS Web-site logged a daily median of 91 visits. The largest onshore event (M L 4.2) struck 20 km from Reykjavík on 06 March 2006 and was followed by an immediate, upsurge in usage resulting in a total of 1,173 unique visits to the Web-site. The greatest cluster of large (≥M L 3) events occurred 300 km offshore from Reykjavík in May 2005. Within this swarm, 9 earthquakes ≥M L 3 were detected on 11 May 2005, resulting in the release of a media bulletin by IMO. During the swarm, and following the media bulletin, the EWIS Web-site logged 1,234 unique visits gradually throughout the day. In summary, the data reveal a spatial and temporal relationship between Web-site usage and earthquake activity. The EWIS Web-site is accessed immediately after the occurrence of a local earthquake, whereas distant, unfelt earthquakes generate gradual interest prompted by media bulletins and, possibly, other contributing factors. We conclude that the Internet is a useful tool for displaying seismic information in near-real-time, which has the capacity to help increase public awareness of natural hazards.  相似文献   

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