Modeling Research of the 27-day Forecast of 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux (I)

Adopting the autoregressive method for time-series modeling, we have made a study on the medium-term forecast of solar 10.7 cm radio flux (F10.7). The result of forecast experiments and the error analysis indicate that when the solar activity is at a rather low level and the 27-day periodicity of F10.7 is apparent, the autoregressive forecast method has a high accuracy and relatively ideal effectiveness, but when a large active region appears or disappears on the solar dusk, the forecast effectiveness is not ideal. This means that the autoregressive method for the time-series modeling can reflect well the 27-day periodicity of F10.7, and that it has certain applicability for building a mediumterm forecast model of F10.7. By comparing the forecast results in the period from 21th September 2005 to 7th June 2007, it is demonstrated that the accuracy of the autoregressive forecast method is equivalent to that of the forecast made by the American Air Force.     

A Running Average Method for Predicting the Size and Length of a Solar Cycle

The running correlation coefficient between the solar cycle amplitudes and the max-max cycle lengths at a given cycle lag is found to vary roughly in a cyclical wave with the cycle number, based on the smoothed monthly mean Group sunspot numbers available since 1610. A running average method is proposed to predict the size and length of a solar cycle by the use of the varying trend of the coefficients. It is found that, when a condition (that the correlation becomes stronger) is satisfied, the mean prediction error (16.1) is much smaller than when the condition is not satisfied (38.7). This result can be explained by the fact that the prediction must fall on the regression line and increase the strength of the correlation. The method itself can also indicate whether the prediction is reasonable or not. To obtain a reasonable prediction, it is more important to search.for a running correlation coefficient whose varying trend satisfies the proposed condition, and the result does not depend so much on the size of the correlation coefficient. As an application, the peak sunspot number of cycle 24 is estimated as 140.4±15.7, and the peak as May 2012± 11 months.     

The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24

We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximum amplitude.     

A New Method to Determine Epochs of Solar Cycle Extrema

A weighted average method is proposed to determine the epochs of solar cycle extrema and hence the solar cycle lengths. Comparing to the previous methods, this method has the advantage that the extremum epochs are easily and uniquely determined.     

An Electron Density Model above the Sunspot from a Mapping of NOAA 7260 at 17 GHz

The brightness temperature distribution of microwave emission in a solar active region generally shows a ring structure, with a dip at the centre. However, no dip was found in the Nobeyama Radioheliograph left handed circular polarization (LCP) image on 1992 August 18; instead, there was a peak. This is a completely LCP source with zero right-handed circular polarization (RCP). We examine this structure in terms of the joint effect of gyroresonance and bremsstrahlung mechanism with a raised electron density above the central part of the sunspot, and the commonly assumed temperature and vertical dipole magnetic field models. The raised electron density is found to be 1.4 × 1011 cm-3 at the chromosphere base.     

Scaling-laws of Radio Spike Bursts and Their Constraints on New Solar Radio Telescopestwo

Radio observation is one of important methods in solar physics and space science. Sometimes, it is almost the sole approach to observe the physical processes such as the acceleration, emission, and propagation of non-thermal energetic particles, etc. So far, more than 100 solar radio telescopes have been built in the world, including solar radiometers, dynamic spectrometers, and radioheliographs. Some of them have been closed after the fulfillment of their primary scientific objectives, or for their malfunctions, and thus replaced by other advanced instruments. At the same time, based on some new technologies and scientific ideas, various kinds of new and much more complicated solar radio telescopes are being constructed by solar radio astronomers and space scientists, such as the American E-OVSA and the solar radio observing system under the framework of Chinese Meridian Project II, etc. When we plan to develop a new solar radio telescope, it is crucial to design the most suitable technical parameters, e.g., the observing frequency range and bandwidth, temporal resolution, frequency resolution, spatial resolution, polarization degree, and dynamic range. Then, how do we select a rational set of these parameters? The long-term observation and study revealed that a large strong solar radio burst is frequently composed of a series of small bursts with different time scales. Among them, the radio spike burst is the smallest one with the shortest lifetime, the narrowest bandwidth, and the smallest source region. Solar radio spikes are considered to be related to a single magnetic energy release process, and can be regarded as an elementary burst in solar flares. It is a basic requirement for the new solar radio telescope to observe and discriminate these solar radio spike bursts, even though the temporal and spatial scales of radio spike bursts actually vary with the observing frequency. This paper presents the scaling laws of the lifetime and bandwidth of solar radio spike bursts with respect to the observing frequency, which provide some constraints for the new solar radio telescopes, and help us to select the rational telescope parameters. Besides, we propose a spectrum-image combination mode as the best observation mode for the next-generation solar radio telescopes with high temporal, spectral, and spatial resolutions, which may have an important significance for revealing the physical essence of the various non-thermal processes in violent solar eruptions.     

Are Homologous Radio Bursts Driven by Solar Post-Flare Loops？

Three particularly complex radio bursts (2001 October 19, 2001 April 10 and 2003 October 26) obtained with the spectrometers (0.65-7.6GHz) at the National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences (NAOC, Beijing and Yunnan) and other in- struments (NoRH, TRACE and SXT) are presented. They each have two groups of peaks occurring in different frequency ranges (broad-band microwave and narrow-band decimeter wavelengths). We stress that the second group of burst peaks that occurred in the late phase of the flares and associated with post-flare loops may be homologous radio bursts. We think that they are driven by the post-flare loops. In contrast to the time profiles of the radio bursts and the images of coronal magnetic polarities, we are able to find that the three events are caused by the active regions including main single-bipole magnetic structures, which are associated with multipole magnetic structures during the flare evolutions. In particular, we point out that the later decimetric radio bursts are possibly the radio counterparts of the homologous flares (called "homologous radio bursts" by us), which are also driven by the single-bipole mag- netic structures. By examining the evolutions of the magnetic polarities of sources (17GHz), we could presume that the drivers of the homologous radio bursts are new and/or recurring appearances/disappearances of the magnetic polarities of radio sources, and that the triggers are the magnetic reconnections of single-bipole configurations.     

Prediction of the Beginning of Solar Activity Cycle 24 by the Similar Cycle Method

In this paper, the method of similar cycles is applied to predict the start time of the 24th cycle of solar activity and the sunspot numbers in the later part of the descending phase of cycle 23. According to the characteristic parameters and the morphological characters of the descending phase of cycle 23 and of cycles 9, 10, 11, 15, 17 and 20 (cycles selected as the similar cycles for the descending phase of cycle 23), the start time of cycle 24 is predicted to be in 2007 yr 5 ± 1m, the smoothed monthly mean spot number, 7.1 ± 2.6 and the length of the 23rd cycle, 11.1 yr. These results agree rather well with those stated in Refs.[11] & [12] as well as those of MSFC. Our work shows that the method of similar cycles can well be applied to the long-term prediction of solar activity.     

Forecast daily indices of solar activity, F10.7, using support vector regression method

The 10.7 cm solar radio flux （F10.7）, the value of the solar radio emission flux density at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, is a useful index of solar activity as a proxy for solar extreme ultraviolet radiation. It is meaningful and important to predict F10.7 values accurately for both long-term （months-years） and short-term （days） forecasting, which are often used as inputs in space weather models. This study applies a novel neural network technique, support vector regression （SVR）, to forecasting daily values of F10.7. The aim of this study is to examine the feasibility of SVR in short-term F10.7 forecasting. The approach, based on SVR, reduces the dimension of feature space in the training process by using a kernel-based learning algorithm. Thus, the complexity of the calculation becomes lower and a small amount of training data will be sufficient. The time series of F10.7 from 2002 to 2006 are employed as the data sets. The performance of the approach is estimated by calculating the norm mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. It is shown that our approach can perform well by using fewer training data points than the traditional neural network.     

基于深度学习的太阳F_10.7辐射通量的短期预报研究

F_10.7太阳辐射通量作为输入参数被广泛运用于大气经验模型、电离层模型等空间环境模型,其预报精度直接影响航天器轨道预报精度.采用时间序列法统计了太阳辐射通量F10.7指数和太阳黑子数(SSN)的关系,给出了两者之间的线性关系,在此基础上提出了一种基于长短时记忆神经网络(Long and Short Term Memory,LSTM)的预报方法,方法结合了54 d太阳辐射通量指数和SSN历史数据来对F_10.7进行未来7 d短期预报,并与其他预报方法的预报结果进行了比较,结果表明:(1)所建短期预报7 d方法模型的性能优于美国空间天气预报中心(Space Weather Prediction Center, SWPC)的方法,预测值和观测值的相关系数(CC)达到0.96,同时其均方根误差约为11.62个太阳辐射通量单位(sfu),预报结果的均方根误差(RMSE)低于SWPC,下降约11%;(2)对预测的23、24周太阳活动年结果统计表明,太阳活动高年的第7 d F10.7指数预报平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)最优可达12.9%以内,低年最优可达2...     

Observational Characteristics of Radio Emission Related to Multi-polar Magnetic Configuration

We present a, large complex radio burst and its associated fast tune structures observed on 2001 April 10 in the frequency range of 0.65-7.6 GHz. The NoRH radio image observation shows very complex radio source structures which include preexisting, newly emerging, submerging/cancelling polarities and a bipolar, a tripolar (a 'bipolar + remote unipolar'), and a quadrupolar structure. This suggests that the radio burst is generated from a very complicated loop structure. According to the spectral and image observations, we assume that the beginning of this flare was caused by a single bipolar loop configuration with a 'Y-type' re-connection structure. A composite of radio continuum and fast time structures is contained in this flare. The various fast radio emission phenomena include normal and reverse drifting type III bursts, and slowly drifting and no-drift structures. The tripolar configurations may form a double-loop with a 'three-legged' structure, which is an important source of the various types of fast time structures. The two-loop reconnection model can lead simultaneously to electron acceleration and corona heating. We have also analyzed the behaviors of coronal magnetic polarities and the emission processes of different types radio emission qualitatively. Interactions of a bipolar or multi-polar loop are consistent with our observational results. Our observations favor the magnetic reconnection configurations of the 'inverted Y-type' (bipolar) and the 'three-legged' structures (tripolar or quadrupolar).     

太阳射电爆发现象中的电子回旋脉泽辐射

太阳射电爆发(Solar Radio Burst, SRB)是太阳高能电子与背景等离子体相互作用产生的感应辐射现象,其多样的动力学谱类型及其复杂的精细结构反映了辐射源区磁等离子体结构状态丰富的物理信息,而相关辐射机制则是解读相关物理信息的关键工具.长期以来,在SRB辐射机制的研究中一直存在着争议不决的两种主要机制,即等离子体辐射机制和电子回旋脉泽(Electron Cyclotron Maser, ECM)辐射机制.近年来,针对传统的ECM辐射机制应用到SRB现象时遇到的一些主要困难,发展了由幂律谱电子低能截止驱动和包含快电子束自生阿尔文波效应的新型ECM驱动模型,并成功应用于解释各类不同SRB动力学谱的形成机制.基于这些新型的ECM辐射模型,系统地总结了ECM辐射机制在各种不同类型SRB现象中的应用,并对它们不同动力学谱结构的形成给出了一致统一的物理解释.     

Resonant Transition Radiation and Solar Radio Bursts

This paper presents general relations for the intensity of the resonant transition radiation (RTR) and their detailed analysis. This analysis shows that the spectrum amplitude of the x-mode at some frequencies for high-energy electrons can grow with the magnetic field increase in some interval from zero value; it can even dominate over that for the o-mode. With further magnetic field increase, the intensity of the RTR x-mode decreases in comparison with the intensity of the o-mode and this decrease is higher for higher velocities of energetic electrons. The polarization of the RTR depends on the velocity of energetic electrons, too. For velocities lower than some velocity limit v<v _i the RTR emission is unpolarized in a broad interval of magnetic field intensities in the radio source. For reasonable values of indices of the power-law distribution functions of energetic electrons, the RTR is broadband in frequencies (df/f≈0.2−0.4). Furthermore, we show various dependencies of the RTR and its spectral characteristics. Assuming the same radio flux of the transition radiation and the gyro-synchrotron one at the Razin frequency, we estimate the limit magnetic field in the radio source of the transition radiation. Then, we analyze possible sources of small-scale inhomogeneities (thermal density fluctuations, Langmuir and ion-sound waves), which are necessary for the transition radiation. Although the small-scale inhomogeneities connected with the Langmuir waves lead to the plasma radiation, which is essentially stronger than RTR, the inhomogeneities of the ion-sound waves are suitable for the RTR without any other radiation. We present the relations describing the RTR for anisotropic distribution functions of fast electrons. We consider the distribution functions of fast electrons in the form of the Legendre polynomials which depend on the pitch-angle. We analyze the influence of the degree of the anisotropy (an increase of the number of terms in the Legendre polynomial) on spectral characteristics of the RTR. A comparison with previous studies is made. As an example of the use of the derived formulas for the RTR, the 24 December 1991 event is studied. It is shown that the observed decimetric burst can be generated by the RTR in the plasma with the density inhomogeneities at the level 〈ΔN ²〉/N ²=2.5⋅10⁻⁵.     

21cm波段太阳爆发中的精细结构

本文简要介绍了云南天文台新建立的21cm波段快速(不中断采样)记录系统,及使用该系统观测到的快速尖峰事件。系统得到的太阳分米波段爆发中不同时间尺度的精细结构与Stu-rroch等提出的太阳耀斑中能量释放的模式相一致。     

Verification of a Similar Cycle Prediction for the Ascending and Peak Phases of Solar Cycle 23

Reviews of long-term predictions of solar cycles have shown that a precise prediction with a lead time of 2 years or more of a solar cycle remains an unsolved problem. We used a simple method, the method of similar cycles, to make long-term predictions of not only the maximum amplitude but also the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number for every month of Solar Cycle 23. We verify and compare our prediction with the latest available observational results.     

The Relation between the Amplitude and the Period of Solar Cycles

The maximum amplitudes of solar activity cycles are found to be well anti-correlated (r = -0.72) with the newly defined solar cycle lengths three cycles before (at lag -3) in 13-month running mean sunspot numbers during the past 190 years. This result could be used for predicting the maximum sunspot numbers. The amplitudes of Cycles 24 and 25 are estimated to be 149.5±27.6 and 144.3±27.6, respectively.     

太阳活动周期的小波分析

运用小波技术对太阳射电流量2800 MHz,太阳黑子数和太阳黑子面积数周期进行分析．其结果表明: (1)这3个系列的数据显示最显著的周期是10．69年,其他周期并不明显．(2)小波功率谱给出了全部时间-周期范围的功率谱变化,它显示了在某个周期处于某个时段的局部功率的变化,小波功率谱分析表明,小于1年的周期仅仅在太阳活动最大期附近比较明显．(3)太阳射电2800 MHz,太阳黑子数和太阳黑子面积数的几个周期(10．69年,5．11年, 155．5天)的小波功率谱比较相似,出现峰值的时间相同;曲线的起伏相似,周期越小,曲线起伏的频率越大．     

Anisotropic Beam Model for the Spectral Observations of Radio Burst Fine Structures on 1998 April 15

A fine structure consisting of three almost equidistant frequency bands was observed in the high frequency part of a solar burst on 1998 April 15 by the spectrometer of Beijing Astronomical Observatory in the range 2.6-3.8GHz. A model for this event based on beam-anisotropic instability in the solar corona is presented. Longitudinal plasma waves are excited at cyclotron resonance and then transformed into radio emission at their second harmonic.The model is in accordance with the observations if we suppose a magnetic field strength in the region of emission generation of about 200G.     

Some Observed Results of Solar Radio Spectrometer at 4.5—7.5GHz

A new instrument of broadband solar radio spectrometer working at waveband 4.5-7.5GHz was developed at Purple Mountain Observatory for Solar Maximum 23. Some new results of spectral observation have been obtained since August 1999.Two typical type Ⅲμbursts with rich fine structures are presented and some interesting features discussed.     

一个复杂太阳射电爆发及其微波源和远紫外冕环特征的初步研究

利用太阳射电宽带频谱仪(0．7-7．6GHz)于2001年10月19日观测到的复杂太阳射电大爆发，呈现出许多有趣的特征，结合NoRH(Nobeyama Radio Heliograph)的高空间分辨率射电成像观测及TRACE(Transition Region and Coronal Explorer)在远紫外(EUV)波段的高空间分辨率成像观测资料，分析了该爆发的射电频谱特征和微波射电源的演化以及它们与复杂的EUV日冕环系统的关系，该爆发是一个双带大耀斑的射电表征．前一部分以宽带(从厘米到米波)爆发为主，机制是回旋同步辐射，所对应的是环足源的辐射；后一部分以窄带(分米到米波)分米波爆发为主，机制是等离子体辐射和回旋共振辐射的联合，对应的是环顶源的辐射。