<Emphasis Type="Italic">An Inconvenient Truth</Emphasis> and the scientists

An Inconvenient Truth provides an opportunity to examine the differences between scientific statements and the mixed statements made by politicians. The Gore movie is a powerful example of the latter. There are some inaccuracies and exaggerations in the film, but on the whole it represents mainstream scientific views on global warming. This essay looks into the state of the art of climate change research including its scientific underpinnings. Climate science is in a state of ‘normal science’ as discussed by Kuhn. There is a large body of scientists who are adherents to the paradigm and there does not appear to be any serious alternative at this time.     

全球气候变化的几个关键问题辨析

基于对全球气候变化事实与国家气候变化行动的分析,就当前全球气候变化科学认识和行动中的几个关键问题的不同观点与争论进行了辨析。指出：①应以比较确定的科学事实和“共同但有区别的责任”作为应对气候变化的出发点;②全球增温的幅度被高估了;③近百年全球变暖主要归因于人类活动的论断科学证据不足;④全球变暖的影响有利有弊,具体问题需具体分析;⑤气候预估不等于气候预测,气候预测尚待时日,气候预估的不确定性也非常大;⑥当前应对全球变暖的行动应采取“适应为主、减缓为辅”的战略。     

An Inconvenient Truth: blurring the lines between science and science fiction

Al Gore’s movie An Inconvenient Truth gives a variety of unusually biased interpretations of the state of climate science and global warming theory. These cover a wide range of natural events and processes which could potentially be impacted by global warming, but which the movie misrepresents as clear examples of the human influence on climate. A few examples include the mixing up of cause and effect in his graphical portrayal of temperature and carbon dioxide variations over hundreds of thousands of years; the repeated depiction of ice calving from glaciers as a sign of global warming; the implication that Hurricane Katrina was the fault of humans; and the particularly extreme view that the Greenland ice sheet will melt, flooding coastal cities worldwide. Ultimately, all of these are related to the widespread perception that scientists have uniquely tied global warming to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The real inconvenient truth is that science has no idea how much of recent warming is natural versus the result of human activities.     

青藏高原气候变化若干前沿科学问题

在全球变化的背景下,青藏高原冰冻圈和大气圈正在发生快速变化,对“亚洲水塔”和“第三极”的生态环境带来深刻影响。研究并梳理了近年来青藏高原气候变化的若干前沿科学问题的研究进展,如高原极端气候事件变化及其与大气环流的关系;高原变暖放大效应及海拔依赖型变暖的物理机制;再分析资料在高原气候变化应用的适用性;气候模式在高原资料稀缺地区的模拟偏差特征及不确定性;以及不同升温阈值下高原气候变化的预估及其风险等。同时展望了高原气候变化研究的前沿问题和科学难点。认清高原气候变化研究的前沿科学问题,可为“一带一路”倡议顺利实施提供科学依据。     

Climate variation: a simple geological perspective

There is much talk about current global warming, but that is not the main subject under discussion here. There is fairly general agreement on climate changes through geological time, and the cause or causes are becoming clearer. In this Feature, a simple backward look is given to climate events, particularly climatic cycles, in geological time, to help get in perspective some of the predictions for our near future.     

Palaeoflood activity and climate change over the last 1400 years recorded by lake sediments in the north‐west European Alps

A high‐resolution sedimentological and geochemical study of a high‐altitude proglacial lake (Lake Blanc, Aiguilles Rouges, 2352 m a.s.l.) revealed 195 turbidites, 190 of which are related to flood events over the last 1400 years. We used the coarsest sediment fraction of each turbidite as a proxy for the intensity of each flood event. Because most flood events at this locality are triggered by localized summer convective precipitation events, the reconstructed sedimentary record reveals changes in the frequency and intensity of such events over the last millennium. Comparisons with other temperature, palaeohydrological and glacier reconstructions in the region suggest that the most intense events occurred during the warmest periods, i.e. during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (AD 800–1300) and the current period of global warming. On a multi‐decadal time scale, almost all the flood frequency peaks seem to correspond to warmer periods, whereas multi‐centennial variations in flood frequency appear to follow the regional precipitation pattern. Consequently, this new Alpine flood record provides further evidence of a link between climate warming and an increase in the frequency and intensity of flooding on a multi‐decadal time scale, whereas the centennial variability in flood frequencies is related to regional precipitation patterns. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

气候变化对地表水环境的影响研究与展望

全球气候变暖引起水资源量和时空上的分布变化,进一步将影响着地表水环境,改变着河流湖泊的水质和环境情势.大多数关于气候变化对水的影响研究主要集中在气候变化对水量的影响方面,对水环境影响方面的定量研究相对较少.基于目前关于气候变化和水环境国内外现有的研究成果,本文主要讨论了气候变化(温度和极端水文事件)对河道、湖泊等水体水质的带来的可能影响,总结了目前的一些研究和采用的方法主要包括经验统计和模型模拟.在此基础上,提出了气候变化和水环境影响研究方面的展望.     

Global warming threat on water resources and environment: a review

Global warming, greenhouse effect, and the climate change problems are long-term anthropogenic consequences that are expected to threaten water related demand and supply patterns in the near future. These problems may be identified linguistically on a logical basis to take the necessary precautions, and implement mitigation strategies after vulnerability possibilities are assessed using fuzzy logic. Climate change effects are the focus of many scientific, engineering, economic, social, cultural, and global nuisances, and these effects awaits cost-effective remedial solutions. Extreme events such as floods and droughts and modified groundwater recharge may be influenced by climate change.     

深海沉积与全球变化研究的前缘与挑战

海洋正在经历变暖和酸化等人类活动引发的全球变化的影响,而深海沉积储存着地球演变历史时期由自然因素驱动过去全球变化的详细档案,通过探究其现今和过去全球变化过程,能够揭示全球变化的特征和规律,为预测未来变化提供依据。近年来在该领域的突出研究进展,是针对社会选择的未来排放轨迹,在深海记录中都能够找到相应的类似情形,用于评估未来地球系统各种变化的过程和后果。其中,以Dansgaard-Oeschger变化为代表的千年尺度事件、以厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)和北大西洋涛动(NAO)为代表的十年尺度气候变化事件,是最接近现今地球变暖的快速气候变化场景。地球系统的发展轨迹目前正处于人类排放温室气体的“热室地球”路径的起点上,如果地球超过了这个“临界点”,它将沿着一条不可逆的道路进入“热室地球”状态,另一种路径则是通向“稳定地球”状态。深海沉积档案中的类似情形能够为社会选择未来排放的轨迹提供重要参考。全球变化研究面临的重大挑战是重新认识其关键过程的理论机制。以海洋变暖和酸化影响硅藻和颗石藻的海洋生物泵过程为例,传统知识认为酸化有利于硅藻建造,但最新的围隔实验研究却发现酸化大幅减少全球硅藻输出;传统知识认为酸化导致海洋生物钙化危机,但近期针对中生代大洋缺氧事件的黑色页岩研究,发现颗石藻的碳酸钙输出在海洋酸化期间大幅增加。这些颠覆性的认识严重挑战了传统全球变化某些关键过程的理论体系。     

全球变化及其相关科学概念的发展与比较

在回顾全球变化科学产生和发展历史的基础上,针对当前全球变化、全球气候变化、全球环境变化、地球系统科学在概念和内涵上存在混淆的情况,就全球变化等概念的内涵、产生的过程及其联系进行了综述、分析和比较。提出全球变化是指对人类现在和未来生存与发展有重要的直接或潜在影响、由自然因素或人类因素驱动在全球范围内所发生的地球环境的变化,或与全球环境有重要关联的区域环境的变化。气候变化和全球环境变化的研究范畴包含在全球变化之中,但又各有其关注领域和交叉部分;而地球系统科学是解决全球变化问题的科学理念、思维方式和解决方案。]     

北极海冰减退引起的北极放大机理与全球气候效应

自20世纪70年代以来,全球气温持续增高,对北极产生了深刻的影响。21世纪以来,北极的气温变化是全球平均水平的2倍,被称为"北极放大"现象。北极海冰覆盖范围呈不断减小的趋势,2012年北极海冰已经不足原来的40%,如此大幅度的减退是过去1 450年以来独有的现象。科学家预测,不久的将来,将会出现夏季无冰的北冰洋。全球变暖背景下北极内部发生的正反馈过程是北极放大现象的关键,不仅使极区的气候发生显著变化,而且对全球气候产生非常显著的影响,导致很多极端天气气候现象的发生。北极科学的重要使命之一是揭示这些正反馈过程背后的机理。北极放大有关的重大科学问题主要与气—冰—海相互作用有关,海冰是北极放大中最活跃的因素,要明确海冰结构的变化,充分考虑融池、侧向融化、积雪和海冰漂移等因素,将海冰热力学特性的改变定量表达出来。海洋是北极变化获取能量的关键因素,是太阳能的转换器和储存器,要认识海洋热通量背后的能量分配问题,即能量储存与释放的联系机理,认识淡水和跃层结构变化对海气耦合的影响。全面认识北极气候系统的变化是研究北极放大的最终目的,要揭示气—冰—海相互作用过程、北极海洋与大气之间反馈的机理、北极变化过程中的气旋和阻塞过程、北极云雾对北极变化的影响。在对北极海冰、海洋和气候深入研究的基础上,重点研究极地涡旋罗斯贝波的核心作用,以及罗斯贝波变异的物理过程,深入研究北极变化对我国气候影响的主要渠道、关键过程和机理。     

青藏高原新近纪重大气候事件演化序列

综合分析青藏高原新近纪古气候研究的不同替代性指标,建立了高原新近纪重大气候事件的演变序列,探讨青藏高原隆升和全球重大气候事件的关系。青藏高原新近纪不同构造-地层区重大气候事件发生的时间与高原隆升事件基本吻合,说明高原隆升是青藏高原气候变化的主要因素,与全球气候变化事件既存在一致性,又存在差异性。早—中中新世青藏高原气候变化频繁,气候变冷期开始的年代早于全球约15Ma以来的降温期,说明早—中中新世高原隆升对全球变冷的贡献较大。晚中新世以来的气候事件与全球重要气候事件相吻合,说明青藏高原可能在晚中新世已经隆升到了一定高度,其对全球气候变化的影响较之前有所减弱。青藏高原气候变化除受到高原隆升影响外,亦受到全球气候变化的影响。     

全球小冰期的气候变化

根据全球小冰期气候信息的不同代用指标的结果分析,全球小冰期冷、暖气候变化趋势具有一致性.其中,太阳活动是影响全球小冰期气候变化的主要因素,强火山爆发及厄尔尼诺事件则是其强化因素,这些因素通过海-气作用这一复杂机制对全球气候产生深远影响.     

Abrupt climate change and transient climates during the Paleogene: a marine perspective

Detailed investigations of high latitude sequences recently collected by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) indicate that periods of rapid climate change often culminated in brief transient climates, with more extreme conditions than subsequent long term climates. Two examples of such events have been identified in the Paleogene; the first in latest Paleocene time in the middle of a warming trend that began several million years earlier: the second in earliest Oligocene time near the end of a Middle Eocene to Late Oligocene global cooling trend. Superimposed on the earlier event was a sudden and extreme warming of both high latitude sea surface and deep ocean waters. Imbedded in the latter transition was an abrupt decline in high latitude temperatures and the brief appearance of a full size continental ice-sheet on Antarctica. In both cases the climate extremes were not stable, lasting for less than a few hundred thousand years, indicating a temporary or transient climate state. Geochemical and sedimentological evidence suggest that both Paleogene climate events were accompanied by reorganizations in ocean circulation, and major perturbations in marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum was marked by reduced oceanic turnover and decreases in global delta 13C and in marine productivity, while the Early Oligocene glacial maximum was accompanied by intensification of deep ocean circulation and elevated delta 13C and productivity. It has been suggested that sudden changes in climate and/or ocean circulation might occur as a result of gradual forcing as certain physical thresholds are exceeded. We investigate the possibility that sudden reorganizations in ocean and/or atmosphere circulation during these abrupt transitions generated short-term positive feedbacks that briefly sustained these transient climatic states.     

Mid‐ and late‐Holocene climatic changes: a test of periodicity and solar forcing in proxy‐climate data from blanket peat bogs

A wide range of palaeoenvironmental evidence from the Holocene has suggested periodicities in the Earth's climate of 10s to 1000s of years. Identifying these millennial‐, century‐ and decadal periodicities, and their impacts, is critical in developing a fuller understanding of natural climate variability. Any solar‐induced climatic change needs to be distinguished from other causes of natural climate variability and from short‐term catastrophic events induced either by external or internal processes. Such events might themselves generate a periodicity, or in combination with other forcing factors they may contribute towards a periodicity (and so spuriously imply a universal and continuing periodicity in the climate record), or they may resonate with a solar‐induced periodicity. Here, evidence from peat records for periodicity in climate change over the mid to late Holocene is reviewed and this is followed by a test of the replicability of claimed periodicities using blanket peat data covering the past 2000 yr from four sites in the British Isles. Results suggest that the mires studied do go through phases of being responsive to periodic forcing factors, with ca. 200, ca. 80 and 60–50 yr wavelengths reflected in some data sets. However, the patterns shown are not consistent. This could be the result of local conditions at individual mires (human impact, sensitivity and vegetation succession) or of changes in the strength or nature of global forcing factors. Assessing a solar–mire link remains difficult because the century‐scale variations of the Sun show different intervals between solar minima, the durations of which are themselves unequal, and because the proxy‐climate data‐sets from peat profiles may themselves not be dated with sufficient precision and/or accuracy. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

大洋钻探与全球变化(二)——从海洋角度研究第四纪古全球变化

海洋在第四纪全球气候和环境的变化中起着至关重要的作用，一方面，海洋沉积记录了大量第四纪古全球变化的信息，特别是可提供古球变化中高分辨率的短期气候事件的记录，另一方面，无论是全球性大洋环流，生物和化学的变化，还是区域性西太平洋边缘海浅水陆架的出没，这些海洋事件都可能是许多第四纪古全球变化现象的原因之所在。因此，从海洋角度研究第四纪古全球变化，已成为当前古全球变化和国际古海洋学研究的重点。在这方面，深     

An Overview of Distribution Characteristics and Formation Mechanisms in Global Arid Areas

The ecological environment in arid areas is extremely fragile and especially sensitive to climate response. Continuous research on the climate and its impact mechanism in the arid zones is of great scientific significance for deeper understanding of the cause of climatic formation and better prediction of climate in arid regions. Some research progresses in recent decades both at home and abroad have been overviewed, including the distribution of arid areas, the causes of arid area climatic formation and arid area climate change. Studies have shown that AI index is an effective criterion for dividing arid areas. There are 8 major arid areas in the world; climatic formation in arid areas is the result of multiple factors; there are 6 kinds of influencing factors, such as Hadley Cell, land-air interaction and so on; the unlikely trend between dry and wet is obvious in arid areas, and some regions are facing more severe drought trends such as North Africa and China-Mongolia, while others show a trend of wetting such as the Midwest of the United States. At present, there are still some scientific problems to be solved urgently:The response of various arid regions to global warming is quite different, and climate prediction in these zones is both important and difficult; the uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has a tremendous impact on the arid area of China-Mongolia, but the models of this field are not perfect enough; there are no accepted conclusions about the causes of climatic formation in different arid regions and the causes of their different wet and dry trends. At present, it is still impossible to quantitatively distinguish the relative contributions of various influencing factors in the climate evolution of drylands and their response processes.     

北极快速增暖背景下冰冻圈变化及其影响研究综述

北极具有独特的地理位置和战略地位,是当前全球变化研究的热点区域之一。北极增暖是全球平均值的两倍以上,被称为“北极放大”现象。在北极快速增暖背景下,冰冻圈尤其是海冰显著萎缩,对北极乃至中纬度天气气候产生深远影响。对北极快速增暖背景下冰冻圈主要要素（包括海冰、冰盖、冰川、积雪和冻土）时空变化特征及未来预估进行了综述,同时总结了海冰变化对北极气候系统（大气圈、水圈、岩石圈和生物圈）以及中纬度极端天气气候事件的影响。指出当前北极冰冻圈变化研究受观测资料缺乏及模式模拟不确定等问题限制,其机理及对中纬度天气气候影响机制仍存在争议。未来还需要加强北极地区的综合监测,提高模式对北极气候系统物理过程的模拟能力,进行多模式、多数据、多方法的集成研究。     

“深时”（Deep Time）研究与沉积学

近百年来全球气候正在经历一次以变暖为主要特征的显著变化,人类文明的发展迫切要求我们对这种变化的发展趋势及其环境与资源效应有更加深入的了解。仅仅对现代和第四纪气候研究是有局限性的,全面了解地球表层及气候系统需要研究整个地质历史时期地球表层系统的发展演化。基于这样一种需求,从沉积记录研究前第四纪地质历史时期的地球古气候变化及重大地质事件,并为未来气候预测提供依据的“深时”（Deep Time）研究计划在国际地球科学界逐渐形成。“深时”研究将聚焦地球气候系统中的重大科学问题,通过地质历史时期极端气候事件探讨气候变化的极限和速率、大气成分和大洋成分变化、大气环流和大洋环流以及生物圈、固体地球与太阳的联系等,最终揭示地球气候系统与地球系统的联系。“深时”研究将通过解译、定年和模拟的基本方法,发展完善大陆科学钻探项目,获得保存良好、高分辨率的沉积记录是重中之重。可以预见,“深时”研究将与“深空”（Deep Space）、“深海”（Deep Sea）和“深部”（Deep Interior）研究计划一样,成为未来国际和国内地球科学重大研究领域。同时,在开展“深时”研究过程中,沉积学也将扮演核心学科的角色发挥重要的作用。     

Driving forces behind land use and cover change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: a case study of the source region of the Yellow River,Qinghai Province,China

Research on land use and cover change (LUCC) is an important aspect of the study of global change or global warming. The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is a good place to study global change because of its unique natural conditions, so we chose the source region of China’s Yellow River for a case study of the driving forces behind LUCC. We used Landsat images obtained in 1989, 2000, and 2005 to establish databases of land use and cover at these times. We then derived LUCC information by overlaying these layers using GIS software. By studying the processes responsible for LUCC, we analyzed the driving forces, which included climatic change, human activities, animal and insect damage, and the influences of government policies. During the 16-year study period, LUCC occurred slowly in response to two groups of processes: natural and anthropogenic. The main driving forces included climate change (the region is becoming drier and warmer), human activities (especially overgrazing), and animal and insect damage. Although political measures such as key national projects to improve the ecological environment could help to restore the region’s vegetation and slow desertification, the region’s fragile ecosystems and harsh natural conditions will make it extremely difficult to rehabilitate the eco-environment.