Stochastic simulation of patterns using Bayesian pattern modeling

In this paper, a Bayesian framework is introduced for pattern modeling and multiple point statistics simulation. The method presented here is a generalized clustering-based method where the patterns can live on a hyper-plane of very low dimensionality in each cluster. The provided generalizationallows a remarkable increase in variability of the model and a significant reduction in the number of necessary clusters for pattern modeling which leads to more computational efficiency compared with clustering-based methods. The Bayesian model employed here is a nonlinear model which is composed of a mixture of linear models. Therefore, the model is stronger than linear models for data modeling and computationally more effective than nonlinear models. Furthermore, the model allows us to extract features from incomplete patterns and to compare patterns in feature space instead of spatial domain. Due to the lower dimensionality of feature space, comparison in feature space results in more computational efficiency as well. Despite most of the previously employed methods, the feature extraction filters employed here are customized for each training image (TI). This causes the features to be more informative and useful. Using a fully Bayesian model, the method does not require extensive parameter setting and tunes its parameters itself in a principled manner. Extensive experiments on different TIs (either continuous or categorical) show that the proposed method is capable of better reproduction of complex geostatistical patterns compared with other clustering-based methods using a very limited number of clusters.     

Advances in landslide nowcasting: evaluation of a global and regional modeling approach

The increasing availability of remotely sensed data offers a new opportunity to address landslide hazard assessment at larger spatial scales. A prototype global satellite-based landslide hazard algorithm has been developed to identify areas that may experience landslide activity. This system combines a calculation of static landslide susceptibility with satellite-derived rainfall estimates and uses a threshold approach to generate a set of ‘nowcasts’ that classify potentially hazardous areas. A recent evaluation of this algorithm framework found that while this tool represents an important first step in larger-scale near real-time landslide hazard assessment efforts, it requires several modifications before it can be fully realized as an operational tool. This study draws upon a prior work’s recommendations to develop a new approach for considering landslide susceptibility and hazard at the regional scale. This case study calculates a regional susceptibility map using remotely sensed and in situ information and a database of landslides triggered by Hurricane Mitch in 1998 over four countries in Central America. The susceptibility map is evaluated with a regional rainfall intensity–duration triggering threshold and results are compared with the global algorithm framework for the same event. Evaluation of this regional system suggests that this empirically based approach provides one plausible way to approach some of the data and resolution issues identified in the global assessment. The presented methodology is straightforward to implement, improves upon the global approach, and allows for results to be transferable between regions. The results also highlight several remaining challenges, including the empirical nature of the algorithm framework and adequate information for algorithm validation. Conclusions suggest that integrating additional triggering factors such as soil moisture may help to improve algorithm performance accuracy. The regional algorithm scenario represents an important step forward in advancing regional and global-scale landslide hazard assessment.     

Semi-hierarchical correspondence cluster analysis and regional geochemical pattern recognition

Semi-hierarchical correspondence cluster analysis (SHCCA), firstly developed in this paper, extracts the main advantages of correspondence analysis, hierarchical and non-hierarchical cluster analysis, and unifies the R- and Q-mode cluster analysis of large data set. A systemic program to recognize the regional geochemical patterns is built up based on this method. With this program, the complex tasks for data interpretation can be achieved by simple processes, and important geochemical information can be displayed by a single diagram, i.e. the multivariate regional geochemical image. As one of the applied examples of this program, the regional geochemical pattern recognition for a shallow covered area around Tahe in Heilongjiang Province is introduced. The results show that many hidden geochemical patterns related to the lithologies, structures, ore-forming conditions and prospecting targets etc are revealed by the geochemical image, and that the main geochemical patterns are related with certain geological and gravitational patterns. By finding contrasts between geochemical patterns and geological or gravitational patterns, the SHCCA results assist the geological mapping in this area. Geochemical data obtained in Chinese regional geochemical exploration provides useful information regarding geology and minerals, and the method described in this paper provides a new way to examine this type of resource.     

基于ArcGIS可视化建模方式的区域滑坡危险性评价

滑坡危险性评价是滑坡灾害防治的重要前提和基础,简单高效的评价方式是其中的一个研究重点。本文以四川安县作为研究区域,基于ArcGIS中的分析功能,引入可视化的建模工具Modelbuilder,以模型的方式演示和运行整个滑坡危险性评价过程,得到了滑坡危险性的分级图,并进行对比分析。实验结果表明,利用可视化建模方式完成复杂地区的滑坡危险性评价,能够简化操作流程,节约时间和精力。     

Improved regional groundwater flow modeling using drainage features: a case study of the central northern karst aquifer system of Puerto Rico (USA)

In northern Puerto Rico (USA), subsurface conduit networks with unknown characteristics, and surface features such as springs, rivers, lagoons and wetlands, drain the coastal karst aquifers. In this study, drain lines connecting sinkholes and springs are used to improve the developed regional model by simulating the drainage effects of conduit networks. Implemented in an equivalent porous media (EPM) approach, the model with drains is able to roughly reproduce the spring discharge hydrographs in response to rainfall. Hydraulic conductivities are found to be scale dependent and significantly increase with higher test radius, indicating scale dependency of the EPM approach. Similar to other karst regions in the world, hydraulic gradients are steeper where the transmissivity is lower approaching the coastline. This study enhances current understanding of the complex flow patterns in karst aquifers and suggests that using a drainage feature improves modeling results where available data on conduit characteristics are minimal.     

3D analogue modeling of the South China Sea: A discussion on breakup pattern

The opening of the South China Sea is one of the most important Cenozoic events in SE Asia. In order to investigate its tectonic evolution, three analogue modeling experiments were compared. The modeling results suggest that rifting pattern and orientation change of the rift zone were related to initial rheological stratification. Affected by the ductile flow of silicone (lower crust) and honey (asthenosphere), the faults became flattened, especially close to the breakup area. We conjecture that the slope area may bear relatively hotter and thinner lithosphere than the shelf area from the beginning of rifting due to stretching and mantle upwelling associated with this regional extension, which in turn lead to the change in initial rheological stratification and therefore the rifting pattern from shelf to slope. In the experiments, breakup developed first at isolated points, which grew and coalesced to become a single spreading area. The conjugate boundaries were either all concave or all convex. Where a rigid massif was located at the divergent boundary, stretching history was different. In this case, the northern and southern areas thinned rapidly and developed into two deep troughs, which may finally evolve into spreading centers. The shape of the massif controls the orientation and boundary shape of the spreading area. It is interpreted that crustal breakup was more viscous in style, and the NW sub sea basin developed along the northern trough of the Zhongsha-Xisha massif (Macclesfield Bank).     

Controls on groundwater flow in the Bengal Basin of India and Bangladesh: regional modeling analysis

Groundwater for domestic and irrigation purposes is produced primarily from shallow parts of the Bengal Basin aquifer system (India and Bangladesh), which contains high concentrations of dissolved arsenic (exceeding worldwide drinking water standards), though deeper groundwater is generally low in arsenic. An essential first step for determining sustainable management of the deep groundwater resource is identification of hydrogeologic controls on flow and quantification of basin-scale groundwater flow patterns. Results from groundwater modeling, in which the Bengal Basin aquifer system is represented as a single aquifer with higher horizontal than vertical hydraulic conductivity, indicate that this anisotropy is the primary hydrogeologic control on the natural flowpath lengths. Despite extremely low hydraulic gradients due to minimal topographic relief, anisotropy implies large-scale (tens to hundreds of kilometers) flow at depth. Other hydrogeologic factors, including lateral and vertical changes in hydraulic conductivity, have minor effects on overall flow patterns. However, because natural hydraulic gradients are low, the impact of pumping on groundwater flow is overwhelming; modeling indicates that pumping has substantially changed the shallow groundwater budget and flowpaths from predevelopment conditions.     

Flood risk assessment using regional regression analysis

This study aimed to create a flood risk map for ungauged regions, which have limited flood damage data and other relevant data. The fact that there is a shortage of data that are critical for the establishment of a flood assessment and mitigation plan is not surprising even in developed countries like South Korea. To address this problem, the regional regression concept in statistical hydrology was introduced to the flood risk assessment field in this study, and it was framed with a series of two regression functions: flood damage and regional coefficients. As the second regression function utilizes the local socioeconomic variables, the resulting flood risk map can reflect the spatial characteristics well. The proposed methodology was applied to create flood risk maps for the three metropolitan areas in South Korea. The comparison of the proposed methodology with the existing methods revealed that only the proposed methodology can produce a statistically meaningful flood risk map based on a recent major flood in 2001.     

区域性地下水有机污染调查与评价方法

借鉴国外区域地下水污染调查经验,针对中国的实际情况,提出了中国区域地下水有机污染调查与评价方法。内容包括有机调查指标选取,采样井选择和清洗、样品采集、保存与送检,实验分析方法和目标检出限,样品野外采集质量控制和实验分析质量控制,有机污染物检出评价、超标评价和相关分析方法。     

Types of Holocene deposits and regional pattern of sedimentation in Lake Baikal

Results of research into recent sediments and their distribution in Lake Baikal are presented. Five areas with different mechanisms of sedimentation have been recognized: (1) deep-water plains with pelagic mud and turbidites; (2) littoral zones without turbidites; (3) underwater ridges (rises) with hemipelagic mud accumulated under calm sedimentation conditions; (4) delta (fan) areas near the mouths of large rivers, where sediments consist mainly of terrigenous material; and (5) shallow Maloe More with poorly sorted terrigenous material and abundant sand. The rate of sedimentation differs considerably in different Baikal areas. The highest rates appear near the mouths of large rivers, lower ones occur in the deep lake basins, and the minimum rates are developed on underwater ridges. A map of the distribution of Holocene sediments in Baikal has been compiled for the first time. The obtained results show that the bottom morphology significantly determines the type of sediments in the lake.     

The investigation of flood risk perception as a quantitative analysis from socio-demographic perspective

The priority of flood management planning is physical victimization and focuses on taking structural measures. Although this approach is an accurate approach, more information is needed in implementing efficient precautionary and planning decisions. It is an indisputable fact that the existence of nothing that is not sustainable in nature cannot continue. Hence, it is necessary to implement a planning decision suitable for the structure of the population living in the region so that the continuity of the policies to be carried out against natural hazards of hydrometeorological origin such as a flood is ensured. How the socio-demographic structures affect the flood risk perception of 245 people living in the city center of Bayburt is examined in this study. It is the first research conducted for the province of Bayburt for this perspective. The participants were asked to fill a questionnaire containing 24 items and consisting of 2 sections. T test and one-way ANOVA (one-way analysis of variance) statistical methods were used to ascertain the difference between the responses of the participants to the questionnaire, based on their demographic structure. As the result of the study, significant differences were observed between the expressions depicting flood risk perception and the participant's age, income levels and educational background. In addition, it has been noted that there is a positive relationship between education and income levels and flood risk perception.

     

Precipitation reconstruction using ring-width chronology of himalayan cedar from western himalaya: Preliminary results

Himalayan cedar (Cedrus deodara (D. Don) G. Don) due to its long age and wide ecological amplitude in the Himalayan region has strong dendroclimatic potential. A well replicated ring-width chronology of it, derived from the ensemble of tree-ring samples of two adjacent homogeneous sites, has been used to reconstruct precipitation for the non-monsoon months (previous year October to concurrent May) back to AD 1171. This provides the first record of hydrological conditions for the western Himalayan region, India during the whole of the ‘Little Ice Age’ and latter part of the ‘Medieval Warm Period’. The reconstruction revealed the wettest and the driest non-monsoon months during the fourteenth and the thirteenth centuries, respectively. The seventeenth century consistently recorded dry non-monsoon months in the western Himalayan region. Surplus precipitation, especially more pronounced since the 1950s, is recorded in the current century.     

应用MODIS数据推估区域地表蒸散

通过热增强方法,充分利用MODIS数据的时间分辨率和空间分辨率的优势,基于对SEBAL模型改进的基础上,反演并验证了山东省的地表蒸散。结果表明,蒸散反演结果与实测值具有很好的一致性,日平均相对误差约为-11.34%。同时分析了研究区2005年和2006年不同土地利用/覆盖类型下蒸散的逐月变化规律,发现水域的月平均蒸散量最大,其次为水田,林地、旱田和草地基本相当,人工用地的月平均蒸散量最小。     

Parameterization,sensitivity analysis,and inversion: an investigation using groundwater modeling of the surface-mined Tivoli-Guidonia basin (Metropolitan City of Rome,Italy)

With respect to model parameterization and sensitivity analysis, this work uses a practical example to suggest that methods that start with simple models and use computationally frugal model analysis methods remain valuable in any toolbox of model development methods. In this work, groundwater model calibration starts with a simple parameterization that evolves into a moderately complex model. The model is developed for a water management study of the Tivoli-Guidonia basin (Rome, Italy) where surface mining has been conducted in conjunction with substantial dewatering. The approach to model development used in this work employs repeated analysis using sensitivity and inverse methods, including use of a new observation-stacked parameter importance graph. The methods are highly parallelizable and require few model runs, which make the repeated analyses and attendant insights possible. The success of a model development design can be measured by insights attained and demonstrated model accuracy relevant to predictions. Example insights were obtained: (1) A long-held belief that, except for a few distinct fractures, the travertine is homogeneous was found to be inadequate, and (2) The dewatering pumping rate is more critical to model accuracy than expected. The latter insight motivated additional data collection and improved pumpage estimates. Validation tests using three other recharge and pumpage conditions suggest good accuracy for the predictions considered. The model was used to evaluate management scenarios and showed that similar dewatering results could be achieved using 20 % less pumped water, but would require installing newly positioned wells and cooperation between mine owners.     

Improving groundwater-flow modeling using optimal zoning methods

Hydraulic conductivity sometimes exhibits complicated spatial variation over a site. A thorough understanding of the spatial distributions of hydraulic conductivity helps to make deterministic models of groundwater more accurate. This study presents a novel procedure that combines simulated annealing algorithms (SA) and the shortest distance method (SD) with the modular three-dimensional groundwater flow model (MODFLOW). The procedure is applied to a hypothetical site with groundwater-monitoring wells to minimize the difference between simulated and observed hydraulic head for optimal zoning of the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity. The results of this optimal zoning method indicate that this new procedure not only improves the efficiency of optimization, but also increases the probability of finding the global optimum, minimizing the errors of the hydraulic head simulated by MODFLOW in two scenarios, one with known and the other with unknown hydraulic conductivity. The results also illustrated that the procedure can effectively determine and delineate hydrogeological zones.     

Holocene lake-level fluctuations in Jura and the northern subalpine ranges, France: regional pattern and climatic implications

Holocene lake-level fluctuations in Jurassian and French subalpine lakes are reconstructed using sedimentological analysis, and a regional pattern of palaeohydrological changes is put forward. Major transgressive phases culminated at about 8500 BP, 6500 BP, 4800 BP, 3500–2300 BP and 450 BP. (1) The synchroncity of Holocene lake-level changes demonstrated for a large number of lakes, (2) close correlations attested between certain lakes and (3) the coincidence between rises in lake-levels in Jura and French subalpine ranges, and glacier advances in Swiss and Austrian Alps argue for a climatic control of these Holocene lake-level fluctuations.     

黑龙江省五常市多目标地球化学调查与评价研究

文章对五常市开展二年多的首次多目标地球化学调查研究工作进行了总结,对多目标地球化学调查的工作方法及取得的初步成果进行了简要的介绍,针对多目标地球化学调查工作中存在的土壤元素地球化学的基准值确定方法、土壤污染检查与评价、农业生态地球化学研究等相关问题,提出了自己的见解和今后开展类似工作的具体思路。