Assessing the impacts of climate change on sustainable management of coastal aquifers

Water is a vital resource for the survival of not only human population, but also almost all ecosystems. Constituting 30 % of all freshwater, groundwater is the main source of available freshwater. Coastal aquifers, which serve as the major freshwater source for densely populated zones, are of vital importance and quite vulnerable to climate change. This paper examines the significant consequences of climate change, decreasing recharge rates, sea-level rise and increasing freshwater demand on the sustainable management of coastal aquifers, via a hypothetical case study. A 3-D numerical model is developed using SEAWAT, to simulate a circular island aquifer in the form of a freshwater lens surrounded by saltwater. Issues such as sloping land surface resulting in landward migration of the coastal boundary and transient response of the system due to pumping are considered through a set of predictive simulations. To assess the sensitivity of the model results to important parameters, a sensitivity analysis is performed. Results of this research, revealing the effects of mentioned pressures on the long-term sustainability of the freshwater resource, are evaluated on the basis of groundwater reserves and intrusion of the freshwater–saltwater interface in lateral and vertical directions. These outcomes are further used to determine the sustainable pumping rate of the system, considering both quantity and quality of the groundwater resources.     

The problem of sustainable groundwater management: the case of La Mancha aquifers, Spain

Gisser and Sánchez (Water Resour Res 16(4):638–642, 1980) compared two different strategies to manage aquifers: “free market” and policy regulation. They stated that the outcome of both is practically the same, and that policy regulation could not improve social welfare. This study challenges this argument by analyzing the management strategies in two large aquifers located in southern Spain, the Eastern La Mancha and the Western La Mancha aquifers. The appeal of this case stems from the fact that management of the Eastern La Mancha aquifer is almost sustainable. In stark contrast, its neighboring Western La Mancha aquifer is being grossly mismanaged. The results engage two major questions from previous groundwater literature. The first question is whether or not aquifer management requires policy intervention. The answer depends upon the consideration and magnitude of environmental damages in the model. The second question addresses the nature of groundwater policies. The contrast in management outcomes between the Western and the Eastern La Mancha aquifers is related to the different types of policy instruments implemented for each aquifer. The results of these policies underline the importance of nurturing the stakeholders’ collective action under the appropriate institutional setting.     

A regional groundwater-flow model for sustainable groundwater-resource management in the south Asian megacity of Dhaka,Bangladesh

The water resources that supply most of the megacities in the world are under increased pressure because of land transformation, population growth, rapid urbanization, and climate-change impacts. Dhaka, in Bangladesh, is one of the largest of 22 growing megacities in the world, and it depends on mainly groundwater for all kinds of water needs. The regional groundwater-flow model MODFLOW-2005 was used to simulate the interaction between aquifers and rivers in steady-state and transient conditions during the period 1981–2013, to assess the impact of development and climate change on the regional groundwater resources. Detailed hydro-stratigraphic units are described according to 150 lithology logs, and a three-dimensional model of the upper 400 m of the Greater Dhaka area was constructed. The results explain how the total abstraction (2.9 million m³/d) in the Dhaka megacity, which has caused regional cones of depression, is balanced by recharge and induced river leakage. The simulated outcome shows the general trend of groundwater flow in the sedimentary Holocene aquifers under a variety of hydrogeological conditions, which will assist in the future development of a rational and sustainable management approach.

     

Development of a coupled surface-groundwater-pipe network model for the sustainable management of karstic groundwater

This paper considers the hydrogeological simulation of groundwater movement in karstic regions using a hydrological modelling system (SHETRAN) which has been adapted for modelling flow in karstic aquifers. Flow and transport through karstic aquifers remains poorly understood, yet quantitative hydrogeological models are essential for developing and implementing groundwater protection policies. The new model has been developed and used within the STALAGMITE (Sustainable Management of Groundwater in Karstic Environments) project, funded by the European Commission. The SHETRAN model is physically based insofar as most of the parameters have some physical meaning. The SHETRAN model represents all of the key processes in the hydrological cycle, including subsurface flow in the saturated and unsaturated zones, surface flow over the ground surface and in channels, rainfall interception by vegetation canopies, evapotranspiration, snow-pack development and snowmelt. The modifications made to SHETRAN to simulate karstic aquifers are (1) the coupling of a pipe network model to a variably saturated, three-dimensional groundwater component (the VSS-NET component), to simulate flow under pressure in saturated conduits; (2) the coupling of surface water features (e.g. sinking streams or "ponors", and spring discharges) to the conduit system; (3) the addition of a preferential "bypass" flow mechanism to represent vertical infiltration through a high-conductivity epikarst zone. Lastly, a forward particle tracking routine has been developed to trace the path of hypothetical particles with matrix and pipe flow to springs or other discharge points. This component allows the definition of groundwater protection zones around a source for areas of the catchment (watershed) which are vulnerable to pollution from non-point sources (agriculture and forestry).     

Groundwater optimization model for sustainable management of the Valley of Puebla aquifer, Mexico

The Valley of Puebla aquifer (VPA), at the central region of Mexico, is subject to intensive exploitation to satisfy the urban and industrial demand in the region. As a result of this increased exploitation, a number of state and federal agencies in charge of water management are concerned about the problems associated with the aquifer (decline of groundwater table, deterioration in water quality, poor well productivity and increased pumping and water treatment costs). This study presents a groundwater management model that combines “MODFLOW” simulation with optimization tools “MODRSP”. This simulation–optimization model for groundwater evaluates a complex range of management options to identify the strategies that best fit the objectives for allocating resources in the VPA. Four hypothetical scenarios were defined to analyze the response of the hydrogeological system for future pumping schemes. Based on the simulation of flow with the MODFLOW program, promising results for the implementation of the optimization of water quantity were found in scenarios 3 and 4. However, upon comparison and analysis of the feasibility of recovery of the piezometric level (considering the policy of gradual reductions of pumping), scenario 4 was selected for optimization purposes. The response functions of scenario 4 were then obtained and optimized, establishing an extraction rate of 204.92 millions of m³/year (Mm³/year). The reduction in groundwater extraction will be possible by substituting the volume removed by 35 wells (that should be discontinued) by the same volume of water from another source.     

Impediments to the management of shared aquifers: A political economy perspective

The reliance on aquifers which are shared by more than one country is increasing. Yet, shared aquifers are only rarely addressed in international treaties, despite the wide recognition of the desirability of comprehensive coordinated management. In order to identify the impediments to reaching agreements on the management of shared aquifers, and the factors that may assist in overcoming these impediments, the political economy of transboundary groundwater exploitation is outlined, and the Israeli-Palestinian case examined. It is argued that the main impediment to the conclusion of international agreements on groundwater is the array of domestic power structures, and particularly the power of small cohesive interest groups. The analysis of the Israeli-Palestinian 1995 interim agreement, and the negotiations leading to it, suggest that this impediment can be overcome, if the domestic interests are recognized in advance, and addressed in the agreement. It also shows that high level politics can play a positive role in forcing water negotiators to conclude an agreement.

WEKU – a GIS-Supported stochastic model of groundwater residence times in upper aquifers for the supraregional groundwater management

 The supraregional GIS-supported stochastical model, WEKU, for the determination of groundwater residence times in the upper aquifers of large groundwater provinces is presented. Using a two-dimensional analytical model of groundwater flow, groundwater residence times are determined within two extreme cases. In the first case, maximal groundwater residence times are calculated, representing the part of groundwater, that is drained by the main surface water of a groundwater catchment area. In the second case, minimal groundwater residence times for drainage into the nearest surface water are determined. Using explicit distribution functions of the input parameters, mean values as well as potential ranges of variations of the groundwater residence times are derived. The WEKU model has been used for the determination of groundwater residence times throughout Germany. The model results – mean values and deviations of the groundwater velocity and the maximal and minimal groundwater residence times in the upper aquifers – are presented by general maps and discussed in detail. It is shown that the groundwater residence times in the upper aquifer vary regionally, differentiated between less than 1 year and more than 2000 years. Using this information, the time scales can be specified, until measures to remediate polluted groundwater resources may lead to a substantial groundwater quality improvement in the different groundwater provinces of Germany. With respect to its supraregional scale of application, the WEKU model may serve as a useful tool for the supraregional groundwater management on a state, federal or international level. Received: 15 August 1995 · Accepted: 15 October 1995     

天津市地热资源可持续利用管理模型研究

以天津潘庄凸起区为例,利用TOUGH2.0模拟软件建立了地热流体的数值模型,并利用2002年10月至2014年10月的水位动态资料进行了模型的识别与验证,针对18眼雾迷山组热储层地热井开发利用现状,以区域地热资源发挥最大的经济、环境和社会效益为目标函数,以区域水位降深最小、不超过限制水位埋深及满足实际需水量为约束条件,建立了区域地热资源优化管理模型,利用MATLAB软件求解模型得到了最优开采方案.通过与现状开采方案对比,说明所制定的优化开采方案合理.     

Review: Simulation-optimization models for the management and monitoring of coastal aquifers

The literature on the application of simulation-optimization approaches for management and monitoring of coastal aquifers is reviewed. Both sharp- and dispersive-interface modeling approaches have been applied in conjunction with optimization algorithms in the past to develop management solutions for saltwater intrusion. Simulation-optimization models based on sharp-interface approximation are often based on the Ghyben-Herzberg relationship and provide an efficient framework for preliminary designs of saltwater-intrusion management schemes. Models based on dispersive-interface numerical models have wider applicability but are challenged by the computational burden involved when applied in the simulation-optimization framework. The use of surrogate models to substitute the physically based model during optimization has been found to be successful in many cases. Scalability is still a challenge for the surrogate modeling approach as the computational advantage accrued is traded-off with the training time required for the surrogate models as the problem size increases. Few studies have attempted to solve stochastic coastal-aquifer management problems considering model prediction uncertainty. Approaches that have been reported in the wider groundwater management literature need to be extended and adapted to address the challenges posed by the stochastic coastal-aquifer management problem. Similarly, while abundant literature is available on simulation-optimization methods for the optimal design of groundwater monitoring networks, applications targeting coastal aquifer systems are rare. Methods to optimize compliance monitoring strategies for coastal aquifers need to be developed considering the importance of monitoring feedback information in improving the management strategies.     

Opportunities to enhance management of karstic aquifers

Methods exist to obtain “new sources of water.” Examples include: (1) capturing and enhancing stormwater recharge and retention within diffuse-flow portions of karst and other aquifers; (2) recycling and reuse of waste water; (3) reducing evapotranspiration and rejected recharge; and (4) ameliorating atmospheric acid deposition through use of alkaline groundwater. These little used management methods have immense potential to sustain future water demands. Full utilization of “new” and traditional water resources requires an understanding of the hydrogeologic framework of karstic aquifers. Reliable conceptual, numerical flow and transport models are needed to help evaluate, select, and design viable water management options. Three such simulation examples are provided together with a discussion of Penn State’s Wastewater reuse project where recharge approaches 3.785 × 10⁹l/year     

Evaluating multiple performance criteria to calibrate the distributed hydrological model of the upper Neckar catchment

Performance criteria are used in the automated calibration of hydrological models to determine and minimise the misfit between observations and model simulations. In this study, a multiobjective model calibration framework is used to analyse the trade-offs between Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of flows (NSE), the NSE of log-transformed flows (NSE_logQ), and the sum-squared error of monthly discharge sums (SSE_MQ). These criteria are known to put different emphasis on average and high flows, low flows, and average volume-balance components. Twenty-two upper Neckar subbasins whose catchment area ranges from 56 to 3,976 km² were modelled with the distributed mesoscale hydrological model (mHM) to investigate these trade-offs. The 53 global parameters required for each instance of the mHM model were estimated with the global search algorithm AMALGAM. Equally weighted compromise solutions based on the selected criteria and extreme ends of all bi-criterion Pareto fronts were used after each calibration run to analyse the trade-off between different performance criteria. Calibration results were further analysed with ten additional criteria commonly used for evaluating hydrological model performance. Results showed that the trade-off patterns were similar for all subbasins irrespective of catchment size and that the largest trade-offs were consistently observed between the NSE and NSE_logQ criteria. Simulations with the compromise solution provided a well-balanced fit to individual characteristics of the streamflow hydrographs and exhibited improved volume balance. Other performance criteria such as bias, the Pearson correlation coefficient, and the relative variability remained largely unchanged between compromise solutions and Pareto extremes. Parameter sets of the best NSE fit and the compromise solution of the largest basin (gauge at Plochingen) were used to simulate streamflow at the other 21 internal subbasins for a 10-year evaluation period without re-calibration. Both parameter sets performed well in the individual basins with median NSE values of 0.74 and 0.72, respectively. The compromise solution resulted in similar NSE_logQ-ranges and a 14.6 % lower median volume-balance error which indicates an overall better model performance. The results demonstrate that the performance criteria for hydrological model calibration should be selected in accordance with the anticipated model predictions. The compromise solution provides an advance to the use of single criteria in model calibration.     

岩溶区多重介质水流模型研究进展

数值模拟技术广泛应用于地下水资源评价工作中,为水资源合理开发利用提供科学依据。本文针对岩溶区的数值模拟技术展开研究,综述了岩溶区地下水流建模技术的主要方法和研究进展,介绍了SWMM模型、UGRFLOW模型、CAVE模型、CFP模型等多重介质模型的建模方式和运行原理。岩溶区地下水赋存介质复杂,管道、裂隙和空隙多重介质并存,水流特征多样,等效连续介质模型不能很好地刻画岩溶区复杂的地下水流特征。随着对岩溶水流系统研究的深入,二重和三重介质模型逐渐应用于岩溶区地下水流模拟工作中,取得较好成果,但仍存在如忽略中宽裂隙的导水作用、岩溶管道设置单一、模型适用性不强等问题。今后应从解析岩溶含水介质的结构特征入手,关注中宽裂隙在地下水流系统中的导水作用和水流特征,改进管道流模块以更好地刻画复杂的地下河管道,改进不同介质间水流交换量算法,提高模型精确性和适用性。      

A hydrogeophysical model of the relationship between geoelectric and hydraulic parameters of anisotropic aquifers

An electrical resistivity method has been used to determine aquifer parameters in the Ganga-Yamuna interfluve in northern India. An existing relationship between the geoelectrical and hydraulic parameters has been modified for the case of an anisotropic aquifer. The hydrogeological framework in the upper part of the Ganga-Yamuna interfluve is evaluated by using existing relationships between hydraulic parameters and geoelectrical parameters for alluvial aquifers. On the basis of aquifer geometry, the area has been divided into two hydraulic units: the western Yamuna flood plain and the Ganga flood plain towards the east. The resistivity data collected in parts of the study area are first interpreted in terms of true resistivity and thicknesses of subsurface layers. The electrical parameters (resistivity and thicknesses) are subsequently correlated with the available pumping test data. Distinct correlations between transmissivity and modified transverse resistance are obtained for the two hydraulic units. A four-parameter model consisting of hydraulic conductivity, modified longitudinal resistivity, modified transverse resistance and hydraulic anisotropy is presented for the anisotropic aquifer underlain by conductive fine grained sediments. The model has been validated at a number of locations, where aquifer parameters are known from pumping test data.     

A multi-agent-based model for sustainable governance of urban flood risk mitigation measures

Natural Hazards - Consequences of urban floods increased and diversified in terms of social, economical and environmental effects, due to the dense and unplanned urbanization in areas at risk of...     

Risk decision-making model for reservoir floodwater resources utilization

Floodwater resources utilization (FRU) can alleviate the shortage of water resources, but there are risks. To safely and efficiently utilize the floodwater resources, it is necessary to study the risk of reservoir FRU. In this paper, the risk rate of exceeding the design flood water level and the risk rate of exceeding safety discharge are estimated. Based on the principle of the minimum risk and the maximum benefit of FRU, a multi-objective risk decision-making model for FRU is constructed. Probability theory and mathematical statistics method is selected to calculate the risk rate; C–D production function method and emergy analysis method is selected to calculate the risk benefit; the risk loss is related to flood inundation area and unit area loss; the multi-objective decision-making problem of the model is solved by the constraint method. Taking the Shilianghe reservoir in Jiangsu province as an example, the optimal equilibrium solution of FRU of the Shilianghe reservoir is found using the risk decision-making model, and the validity and applicability of the model are verified.     

A geo-ontology-based approach to decision-making in emergency management of meteorological disasters

Ontology as a kind of method for knowledge representation is able to provide semantic integration for decision support in emergency management activities of meteorological disasters. We examine a meteorological disaster system as composed of four components: disastrous meteorological events, hazard-inducing environments, hazard-bearing bodies, and emergency management. The geospatial characteristics of these components can be represented with geographical ontology (geo-ontology). In this paper, we propose an ontology representation of domain knowledge of a meteorological disaster system descending from an adapted geospatial foundation ontology, designed to formally conceptualize the domain terms and establish relationships between those concepts. The class hierarchy and relationships of the proposed ontology are implemented finally at top level, domain level/task level, and application level. The potential application of the ontology is illustrated with a case study of prediction of secondary disasters and evacuation decision of a typhoon event. The multi-level ontology model can provide semantic support for before-, during-, after-event emergency management activities such as risk assessment, resource preparedness, and emergency response where the formed concepts and their relationships can be incorporated into reasoning sentences of these decision processes. Furthermore, the ontology model is realized with a universally used intermediate language OWL, which enables it to be used in popular environments. This work will underlie the semantic integration among human beings, between heterogeneous systems and between human beings and systems, enable spatial semantic reasoning, and will be useful in guiding advanced decision support in emergency management of meteorological disasters.     

Integrated, watershed-based management for sustainable water resources

Water scarcity is a becoming a critical issue globally, driven largely by the demands of an exponentially growing human population and complicated by the impacts of climate change on the amounts and distribution of precipitation. It is also due to mismanagement as scarce water resources are being used simultaneously for irrigation, power generation, public and industrial water supply, flood reduction, and wastewater disposal without consideration of the cumulative impacts to the water resources themselves. This paper outlines eight ecologically based principles and associated guidelines as the basis for integrated and watershed-based management of the world’s water resources.