Estimated Sand and Gravel Resources of the South Merrimack, Hillsborough County, New Hampshire, 7.5-Minute Quadrangle

A computer methodology is presented that allows natural aggregate producers, local governmental, and nongovernmental planners to define specific locations that may have sand and gravel deposits meeting user-specified minimum size, thickness, and geographic and geologic criteria, in areas where the surficial geology has been mapped. As an example, the surficial geologic map of the South Merrimack quadrangle was digitized and several digital geographic information system databases were downloaded from the internet and used to estimate the sand and gravel resources in the quadrangle. More than 41 percent of the South Merrimack quadrangle has been mapped as having sand and (or) gravel deposited by glacial meltwaters. These glaciofluvial areas are estimated to contain a total of 10 million m³ of material mapped as gravel, 60 million m³ of material mapped as mixed sand and gravel, and another 50 million m³ of material mapped as sand with minor silt. The mean thickness of these areas is about 1.95 meters. Twenty tracts were selected, each having individual areas of more than about 14 acres (5.67 hectares) of stratified glacial-meltwater sand and gravel deposits, at least 10-feet (3.0 m) of material above the watertable, and not sterilized by the proximity of buildings, roads, streams and other bodies of water, or railroads. The 20 tracts are estimated to contain between about 4 and 10 million short tons (st) of gravel and 20 and 30 million st of sand. The five most gravel-rich tracts contain about 71 to 82 percent of the gravel resources in all 20 tracts and about 54–56 percent of the sand. Using this methodology, and the above criteria, a group of four tracts, divided by narrow areas sterilized by a small stream and secondary roads, may have the highest potential in the quadrangle for sand and gravel resources.

Climate of the past millennium inferred from varved proglacial lake sediments on northeast Baffin Island,Arctic Canada

This study uses ^239+240Pu-dated varved sediments from Big Round Lake, a proglacial lake on northeast Baffin Island, Arctic Canada to generate a 1000-year-long, annual-resolution record of past climate. Varve thickness is positively correlated with July–August–September temperature measured at Clyde River, 70 km to the north of the lake (r = 0.46, p < 0.001). We therefore interpret the variability and trends in varve thickness to partially represent summer temperature. The coolest Little Ice Age temperatures occurred in this record from 1575 to 1760 AD and were approximately 1.5°C cooler than today (average from 1995 to 2005 AD) and 0.2°C cooler than the last millennium (average from 1000 to 2000 AD). Pre-twentieth-century warmth occurred during two intervals, 970–1150 AD and 1375–1575 AD; temperatures were approximately 1.2°C cooler than today, but 0.1°C warmer than the last millennium. The Big Round Lake varve-thickness record contains features similar to that reconstructed elsewhere in the eastern Canadian Arctic. This high-resolution quantitative record expands our understanding of arctic climate during the past millennium.

Economic and Operational Assessment of the Arman Field in Kazakhstan

The Arman field in western Kazakhstan is estimated to hold recoverable reserves of 3.65 million metric tons of oil and 74 million cubic meters of gas. The field began production in 1994 as a joint venture between Oryx Energy, MangistauMunaiGas, and the State Holding Company Zharkyn, and currently is operated by Royal Dutch Shell in a 50:50 joint venture with Lukoil. The geology, crude composition, and production history of Arman is outlined, followed by a review of the field development, contract structure, and operating and capital expenditures. An assessment of field profitability concludes the discussion.

Unconventional Energy Resources and Geospatial Information: 2006 Review

This article contains a brief summary of some of the 2006 annual committee reports presented to the Energy Minerals Division (EMD) of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. The purpose of the reports is to advise EMD leadership and members of the current status of research and developments of energy resources (other than conventional oil and natural gas that typically occur in sandstone and carbonate rocks), energy economics, and geospatial information. This summary presented here by the EMD is a service to the general geologic community. Included in this summary are reviews of the current research and activities related to coal, coalbed methane, gas hydrates, gas shales, geospatial information technology related to energy resources, geothermal resources, oil sands, and uranium resources.

Five thousand years of sediment transfer in a high arctic watershed recorded in annually laminated sediments from Lower Murray Lake,Ellesmere Island,Nunavut, Canada

Sediments in Lower Murray Lake, northern Ellesmere Island, Nunavut Canada (81°21′ N, 69°32′ W) contain annual laminations (varves) that provide a record of sediment accumulation through the past 5000+ years. Annual mass accumulation was estimated based on measurements of varve thickness and sediment bulk density. Comparison of Lower Murray Lake mass accumulation with instrumental climate data, long-term records of climatic forcing mechanisms and other regional paleoclimate records suggests that lake sedimentation is positively correlated with regional melt season temperatures driven by radiative forcing. The temperature reconstruction suggests that recent temperatures are ~2.6°C higher than minimum temperatures observed during the Little Ice Age, maximum temperatures during the past 5200 years exceeded modern values by ~0.6°C, and that minimum temperatures observed approximately 2900 varve years BC were ~3.5°C colder than recent conditions. Recent temperatures were the warmest since the fourteenth century, but similar conditions existed intermittently during the period spanning ~4000–1000 varve years ago. A highly stable pattern of sedimentation throughout the period of record supports the use of annual mass accumulation in Lower Murray Lake as a reliable proxy indicator of local climatic conditions in the past.

Les conceptions françaises de la science géographique

Il y a actuellement en géographie, on ne peut le nier, une sorte de malaise, et on se demande avec inquiétude si c'est le signe d'un déclin ou 1'annonce d'une nouvelle jeunesse. Ces problèmes se posent sans doute aux géographes de tous les pays du monde, mais ils ne se posent pas toujours exactement de la même façon. Et, pour comprendre leur aspect en France, il faut voir comment s'est constitutée la géographie française.²

La g`ographie, il y a un peu plus d'un demi-siècle, n'était guere qu'une nomenclature. Aux examens on demandait le nom des affluents de droite de tel grand fleuve ou les chefs-lieux des dèpartements.     

Evaluation of Procedures for Prediction of Unconventional Gas in the Presence of Geologic Trends

This study extends the application of local spatial nonparametric prediction models to the estimation of recoverable gas volumes in continuous-type gas plays to regimes where there is a single geologic trend. A transformation is presented, originally proposed by Tomczak, that offsets the distortions caused by the trend. This article reports on numerical experiments that compare predictive and classification performance of the local nonparametric prediction models based on the transformation with models based on Euclidean distance. The transformation offers improvement in average root mean square error when the trend is not severely misspecified. Because of the local nature of the models, even those based on Euclidean distance in the presence of trends are reasonably robust. The tests based on other model performance metrics such as prediction error associated with the high-grade tracts and the ability of the models to identify sites with the largest gas volumes also demonstrate the robustness of both local modeling approaches.

Pollen-based reconstructions of late Holocene climate from the central and western Canadian Arctic

Two lake-sediment cores from the western and central Canadian Arctic were used to investigate late Holocene climate variability in the region. Both cores were analyzed for pollen, organic matter, biogenic silica, and magnetic susceptibility, and were dated using a combination of ²¹⁰Pb and ¹⁴C techniques. Core MB01, from southwestern Victoria Island, provides a 2600-year-long record. Fossil pollen percentages, along with other parameters, suggest the occurrence of a cold period around 2400 cal year BP (450 BC), followed by slightly warmer conditions by 1800 cal year BP (150 AD), and a return to cooler conditions throughout much of the last millennium. Core SL06, from southern Boothia Peninsula, shows more subtle changes in pollen percentages over its 2500-year duration, but an increase in Cyperaceae and decrease in Oxyria pollen around 1400 cal year BP (550 AD) are indicative of warmer conditions at that time. Quantitative climate reconstructions from these pollen sequences were compared to two other pollen-based climate records from the region and indicate the presence of a widespread wet period ~1500 cal year BP (450 AD), and a cool and dry Little Ice Age. In the reconstructions based on pollen percentage data, the twentieth century summer temperature and annual precipitation in the central and western Canadian Arctic were comparable to that which occurred over the last 2500 years. However, pollen-influx values increase in the most recent sediments, suggesting high plant productivity during the late twentieth century.

Holocene climate and glacier variability at Hallet and Greyling Lakes,Chugach Mountains,south-central Alaska

Evidence from lake sediments and glacier forefields from two hydrologically isolated lake basins is used to reconstruct Holocene glacier and climate history at Hallet and Greyling Lakes in the central Chugach Mountains of south-central Alaska. Glacial landform mapping, lichenometry, and equilibrium-line altitude reconstructions, along with changes in sedimentary biogenic-silica content, bulk density, and grain-size distribution indicate a dynamic history of Holocene climate variability. The evidence suggests a warm early Holocene from 10 to 6 ka, followed by the onset of Neoglaciation in the two drainage basins, beginning between 4.5 and 4.0 ka. During the past 2 ka, the glacial landforms and lacustrine sediments from the two valleys record a remarkably similar history of glaciation, with two primary advances, one during the first millennium AD, from ~500 to 800 AD, and the second during the Little Ice Age (LIA) from ~1400 to 1900 AD. During the LIA, the reconstructed equilibrium-line altitude in the region was no more than 83 ± 44 m (n = 21) lower than the modern, which is based on the extent of glaciers during 1978. Differences between the summer temperature inferred from the biogenic-silica content and the evidence for glacial advances and retreats suggest a period of increased winter precipitation from 1300 to 1500 AD, and reduced winter precipitation from 1800 to 1900 AD, likely associated with variability in the strength of the Aleutian Low.

A Statistical Analysis of the Theoretical Yield of Ethanol from Corn Starch

  This paper analyzes the Illinois State Variety Test results for total and extractable starch content in 708 samples of 401 commercial varieties of corn. It is shown that the normally distributed extractable starch content has the mean of 66.2% and the standard deviation of 1.13%. The corresponding maximum theoretical yield of ethanol is 0.364 kg EtOH/kg dry corn, and the standard deviation is 0.007. In the ethanol industry units, this yield translates to 2.64 gal EtOH/nominal wet bushel, and the standard deviation is 0.05 gal/bu. The U.S. ethanol industry consistently has inflated its ethanol yields by counting 5 volume percent of # 14 gasoline denaturant (8% of energy content) as ethanol. Also, imports from Brazil and higher alcohols seem to have been counted as U.S. ethanol. The usually accepted USDA estimate of mean ethanol yield in the U.S., 2.682 gal EtOH/bu, is one standard deviation above the rigorous statistical estimate in this paper.

Late Holocene storm-trajectory changes inferred from the oxygen isotope composition of lake diatoms,south Alaska

The oxygen isotope ratios of diatoms (δ¹⁸O_diatom), and the oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios of lake water (δW) of lakes in south Alaska provide insight into past changes in atmospheric circulation. Lake water was collected from 31 lakes along an elevation transect and diatoms were isolated from lake sediment from one lake (Mica Lake) in south Alaska. In general, δW values from coastal lakes overlap the global meteoric water line (GMWL). δW values from interior lakes do not lie on the GMWL; they fall on a local evaporation line trajectory suggesting source isotopes are depleted with respect to maritime lakes. Sediment cores were recovered from 58 m depth in Mica Lake (60.96° N, 148.15° W; 100 m asl), an evaporation-insensitive lake in the western Prince William Sound. Thirteen calibrated ¹⁴C ages on terrestrial macrofossil samples were used to construct an age-depth model for core MC-2, which spans 9910 cal years. Diatoms from 46, 0.5-cm-thick samples were isolated and analyzed for their oxygen isotope ratios. The analyses employed a newly designed, stepwise fluorination technique, which uses a CO₂ laser-ablation system, coupled to a mass spectrometer, and has an external reproducibility of ±0.2‰. δ¹⁸O_diatom values from Mica Lake sediment range between 25.2 and 29.8‰. δ¹⁸O_diatom values are relatively uniform between 9.6 and 2.6 ka, but exhibit a four-fold increase in variability since 2.6 ka. High-resolution sampling and analyses of the top 100 cm of our lake cores suggest large climate variability during the last 2000 years. The 20th century shows a +4.0‰ increase of δ¹⁸O_diatom values. Shifts of δ¹⁸O_diatom values are likely not related to changes in diatom taxa or dissolution effects. Late Holocene excursions to lower δ¹⁸O_diatom values suggest a reduction of south-to-north storm trajectories delivered by meridional flow, which likely corresponds to prolonged intervals when the Aleutian Low pressure system weakened. Comparisons with isotope records of precipitation (δP) from the region support the storm-track hypothesis, and add to evidence for variability in North Pacific atmospheric circulation during the Holocene.

Potential for Coal-to-Liquids Conversion in the U.S.-Resource Base

By applying the multi-Hubbert curve analysis to coal production in the United States, we demonstrate that anthracite production can be modeled with a single Hubbert curve that extends to the practical end of commercial production of this highest-rank coal. The production of bituminous coal from existing mines is about 80% complete and can be carried out at the current rate for the next 20 years. The production of subbituminous coal from existing mines can be carried out at the current rate for 40–45 years. Significant new investment to extend the existing mines and build new ones would have to commence in 2009 to sustain the current rate of coal production, 1 billion tons per year, in 2029. In view of the existing data, we conclude that there is no spare coal production capacity of the size required for massive coal conversion to liquid transportation fuels. Our analysis is independent of other factors that will prevent large-scale coal liquefaction projects: the inefficiency of the process and either emissions of greenhouse gases or energy cost of sequestration.

A 2000 year record of climatic change at Ongoke Lake,southwest Alaska

We analyzed sediments of the past 2000 years from Ongoke Lake, southwest Alaska, for organic carbon, organic nitrogen, biogenic silica (BSi), and diatom assemblages at decadal to centennial resolution to infer limnological changes that may be related to climatic variation in southwestern Alaska. The chronology is based on a ²¹⁰Pb profile from bulk sediments and nine AMS ¹⁴C ages from terrestrial plant macrofossils. Four of the ¹⁴C ages span a core depth interval of 60.5 cm but are statistically indistinguishable from one another with a mean of ~1300 AD, which compromises the determination of temporal trends at Ongoke Lake and comparison with other paleoclimate records. The diatom record suggests changes in the duration of ice cover and strength of thermal stratification that are probably related to temperature variation. This variation includes a cold interval around the first millennium cooling (FMC) and a warm interval spanning the medieval climate anomaly (MCA). However, the lake-sediment record shows no clear signals of temperature variation for the period of the Little Ice Age (LIA) or the twentieth century. Climatic changes during these periods may have been manifested through effective-moisture (precipitation minus evapotranspiration) variation in the Ongoke Lake area. We estimate water depths and infer effective-moisture fluctuations by applying a regional transfer function to our diatom record. Together with inferences from diatom autecologies, this water-depth reconstruction suggests that effective moisture increased steadily from 50 BC to 350 AD, which was followed by relatively dry conditions between 550 and 750 AD and relatively wet conditions between 750 and 1450 AD. Effective moisture was low from ~1450 to 1850 AD, coinciding with the LIA; an alternative age model places this interval between ~1315 and 1850 AD. During the past 150 years, effective moisture increased, with estimated water depths reaching peak values in the second half of the twentieth century. This study offers the first paleolimnological record for inferring centennial-scale climatic variation over the past two millennia from southwestern Alaska.

Phénomènes d'hydraulique fluviale observés sur le Fleuve Jaune

«Relativement aux moulinets pour jaugeages, je ne pense pas que les troubles dus aux concentrations pas trop fortes de boues puissent affecter sérieusement leurs révolutions. Mais un certain effet est certainement à attendre lorsque la charge en boues devient supérieure à 20 % du poids total (eau et boues). Le moulinet doit être alors très vraisemblablement accéléré, parce que dans l'eau claire il doit y avoir toujours un certain effet de glissement (ralentissement; comparez avec I'hélice d'un bateau). Cet effet doit être moindre lorsque le liquide est fortement chargé en boues. Les révolutions sont en conséquence plus rapides, et les vitesses lues d'après la courbe de tarage, plus grandes que celles du courant. Nous considérerons cet effet comme une source possible d'erreurs, mais nous écartons (généralement) cette considération, à cause du fait que la turbulence¹ qui accélère² de 1 à 2 % un moulinet à axe horizontal du type Ott peut être un facteur d'inexactitude encore plus grande, et qu'il serait difficile de dissocier les deux phénomènes.     

Insights from a Simple Hotelling Model of the World Oil Market

This paper uses annual data on world oil price and consumption from 1965 to 2006 to calibrate a Hotelling model of optimal nonrenewable resource extraction. Numerical solutions are generated for various specifications of the elasticity of demand for both isoelastic demand and linear demand under each of two possible market structures: perfect competition and monopoly. Prior to the 1973 oil crisis, the model that best fits actual data is one of perfect competition with linear demand and a demand elasticity of −0.4. For the periods 1973–1981 and 1981–1990, the model that best fits actual data is one of monopoly with linear demand and demand elasticities of −0.8 and −0.7, respectively, suggesting that the market was strongly influenced by OPEC during this time. Under the model that best fits the most recent period (perfect competition with linear demand and demand elasticity −0.5), the real oil price (in 1982–1984 U.S.$) should fall in the range $60.87–$66.31/barrel over the years 2010–2030.

Prediction of Resource Volumes at Untested Locations Using Simple Local Prediction Models

This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses.

Environmental controls on peatland testate amoebae (Protozoa: Rhizopoda) in the North of Ireland: Implications for Holocene palaeoclimate studies

The environmental controls on modern peatland testate amoebae (Protozoa: Rhizopoda) in the North of Ireland were investigated to assess the potential for Holocene palaeoclimate research within this region. Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) revealed that hydrological factors (water table depth and moisture content) are the most important abiotic controls on organism distribution. A series of partial CCAs showed that water table depth explains 15.8% and moisture content explains 5.5% of the total variance. Monte-Carlo permutation tests showed that the results are highly significant (p < 0.002; p < 0.040 respectively). Transfer functions were generated for water table depth using weighted averaging tolerance downweighted (WA-Tol) regression and for moisture content using weighted averaging partial least squares regression (WA-PLS). The performance of the models was assessed using leave-one-out cross-validation (jacknifing). After removal of outlier samples, the improved transfer functions were found to perform well with an r _jack² and root mean square error of prediction_jack of 0.83, 4.99 cm for water table depth and 0.76, 4.60% for moisture content respectively. The water table transfer function was applied to a fossil peat sequence from this region and reconstruction errors were generated by 1,000 bootstrap cycles. The water table reconstruction was also carried out using an established pan-European transfer function and was found to be similar to that based on the North of Ireland dataset. This demonstrates the persistent and comparable control of hydrological variables on the distribution of testate amoebae taxa across Europe and implies that regional training sets can suffice as long as no-analogue situations are not encountered.

Abrupt changes in climatic conditions across the late-glacial/Holocene transition on the N. E. Tibet-Qinghai Plateau: evidence from Lake Qinghai, China

A multi-proxy investigation of two sediment cores from the large closed-basin Lake Qinghai provides evidence of abrupt changes in paleolimnological conditions across the late-glacial/Holocene transition. The chronology of the lacustrine sediment sequence is framed by four AMS ¹⁴C ages for aquatic-plant macrofossil seeds. Four distinct stratigraphic units are identified on the basis of abrupt shifts in lithology, carbonate composition, ¹⁸O of authigenic carbonates, magnetic susceptibility characteristics, and total nitrogen content. These units represent four environmental stages that were each initiated by three abrupt changes in hydro-climatic regime at 11,600, 10,700, and 10,000 ¹⁴C yrs B.P. Each of the four environmental stages thus represents a characteristic precipitation-to-evaporation balance for the lake catchment. The paleoenvironmental evidence indicates that the lake before 11,600 ¹⁴C yrs B.P. was very shallow with carbonate production and organic productivity much lower than in the Holocene, suggesting a much colder and drier climate than in the Holocene. From 11,600 to 10,700 ¹⁴C yrs B.P., the presence of clastic laminations and Ruppia fossil seeds suggests an increased inflow of sediment-laden waters into the lake. Between 10,700 and 10,000 ¹⁴C yrs B.P., the development of a carbonate playa lake indicates that a negative water balance persisted. From 10,000 ¹⁴C yrs B.P. an abrupt increase in rainfall is suggested by a sudden termination of the playa lake environment and the diluted lake waters, as evidenced by negative shift in both total carbonate content and ¹⁸O values of mineral carbonate. However, the lake level during the early Holocene was about 20 m shallower than today, indicating that the effective moisture then was much lower than it is today. The multi-proxy record suggests a step-wise pattern of climatic change across the late-glacial/Holocene transition along with abrupt shifts in P-E balance on the N. E. Tibet-Qinghai Plateau. This pattern is characterized by reorganization of Asian monsoon circulation, which probably was determined by increasing summer insolation and changes in surface boundary conditions accompanying regional deglaciation. The arid event at 10,700–10,000 ¹⁴C yrs B.P. is interpreted as a Younger Dryas equivalent, although climatic cooling is not indicated by the evidence at hand.     

Water isotopic and hydrochemical evolution of a lake chain in the northern Great Plains and its paleoclimatic implications

Oxygen isotopes and geochemistry from lake sediments are commonly used as proxies of past hydrologic and climatic conditions, but the importance of present-day hydrologic processes in controlling these proxies are sometimes not well established and understood. Here we use present-day hydrochemical data from 13 lakes in a hydrologically connected lake chain in the northern Great Plains (NGP) to investigate isotopic and solute evolution along a hydrologic gradient. The ¹⁸O and ²H of water from the chain of lakes, when plotted in ²H - ¹⁸O space, form a line with a slope of 5.9, indicating that these waters fall on an evaporation trend. However, 10 of the 13 lakes are isotopically similar (¹⁸O = –6 ± 1 VSMOW) and show no correlation with salinity (which ranges from 1 to 65). The lack of correlation implies that the isotopic composition of various source waters rather than in-lake evaporation is the main control of the ¹⁸O of the lakes. Groundwater, an important input in the water budget of this chain of lakes, has a lower ¹⁸O value (–16.7 in 1998) than that of mean annual precipitation (–11) owing to selective recharge from snow melt. For the lakes in this chain with salinity < 15, the water Mg/Ca ratios are strongly correlated with salinity, whereas Sr/Ca is not. The poor correlation between Sr/Ca and salinity results from uptake of Sr by endogenic aragonite. These new results indicate that ¹⁸O records may not be interpreted simply in term of climate in the NGP, and that local hydrology needs to be adequately investigated before a meaningful interpretation of sedimentary records can be reached.