气候变化下水资源脆弱性的适应性管理新认识

气候变化下的水资源脆弱性和适应性管理研究成为全球和国家应对气候变化和保障水资源安全重点关注的问题,也是中国可持续发展面对的重大战略问题。介绍了水资源脆弱性和适应性管理的国内外最新研究进展;针对国家重大需求和国际科学前沿问题,综述了气候变化下水资源脆弱性和适应性管理存在的问题与挑战。提出了气候变化下水资源脆弱性与适应性管理理论与方法研究以应对气候变化的无悔为准则,与社会经济可持续发展、成本效益分析、利益相关者的多信息源的分析与综合决策相结合为原则,对适应性管理与脆弱性组成的互联互动系统及其风险与不确定性进行分析的新认识。     

国际气候变化会议回顾与近期热点问题分析

国际气候变化谈判经历了长达20多年的时间,气候变化问题已经由单纯的科学问题转变成错综复杂的涉及全人类可持续发展的政治问题。在联合国气候变化巴黎大会即将召开之际,在回顾重要国际气候会议历程与阶段、梳理主要国家应对国际气候形势的关键举措、分析巴黎气候会议及近期国际行动的首要任务的基础上,并就近期国际气候政策热点问题进行了分析,以期为我国积极参与新一轮国际气候变化制度的制定提供参考。     

中美气候变化联合声明为国际应对气候变化行动注入新活力

正2014年11月12日,中美两国发布《中美气候变化联合声明》,宣布清洁能源发展合作与温室气体减排方面的双边协议:美国计划于2025年实现在2005年基础上减排26%~28%的全经济范围减排目标并将努力减排28%;中国计划2030年左右CO2排放达到峰值且将努力早日达峰,并计划到2030年非化石能源占一次能源消费比重提高到20%左右。中美两国新的减排目标为2015年气候谈判做出了重要的承诺,以合作的方式寻求建立互信和促进全球能源转型,为国际应对气候变化行动注入新的活力。中美两国减排目标的确定是根据现有政策措施开展密集的碳减排成本效应分析。中美两国新的减排承     

“台风委员会地区应对气候变化”综合研讨会在北京召开

“台风委员会地区应对气候变化”综合研讨会于2008年9月22—26日在北京召开,会议由水利部水文局承办。 台风委员会（TC）是亚太经社会（ESCAP）和世界气象组织（WMO）联合主持的一个政府间组织,其宗旨是改善和协调亚洲及太平洋地区防灾规划和措施,减轻自然灾害特别是台风造成的人员及财产损失。近年来中国在水资源管理领域积累了丰富的经验,取得了巨大成就,引起国际社会的广泛关注,台风委员会第40届年会决定2008年在北京举办“台风委员会地区应对气候变化”综合研讨会。     

中国历史时期气候变化影响及其应对的启示

气候变化的社会影响是当前全球变暖影响研究的一个重要领域。以古鉴今,历史上应对气候变化的经验和教训可以为现代人类应对以全球变暖为突出标志的气候变化挑战提供宝贵的借鉴。总结中国历史气候变化对社会影响研究领域的成果,归纳得到了历史时期气候变化对中国社会发展影响的若干认识及其对适应未来气候变化的启示。主要结论是:历史气候变化影响的总体特征是"冷抑暖扬",但影响与响应存在区域差异;社会经济的衰落与百年尺度的气候由暖转冷呈现同期性,与暖期相伴的社会快速发展会增加社会对资源、环境需求的压力,导致社会脆弱性加大;历史上应对气候变化策略因时、因地、因主体而异;而以政府为主导的主动因地制宜适应是应对气候变化的有效策略。     

地球系统模式与综合评估模型的双向耦合及应用

针对2016年度国家重点研发计划项目"全球变化与应对"指南方向"气候变化经济影响综合评估模式研究",旨在建立具有自主知识产权的、国际一流的评估模式,评估气候变化对中国经济的影响。项目的实施是在全球变化正在深刻影响人类生存和发展的背景下开展的,总体目标是提高地球系统模式空间水平分辨率,完善综合评估模型,实现地球系统模式和综合评估模型的双向耦合,评估气候变化对社会经济的影响。旨在解决2个关键科学问题:综合评估模型中如何刻画气候变化的影响?气候变化对中国社会经济的影响及其程度如何?解决2个关键技术问题:地球系统模式中小尺度人类活动模拟的技术问题;地球系统模式和综合评估模型运行尺度匹配和非同步耦合的技术问题。     

气候变化对洪水灾害影响研究进展

气候变化背景下包括洪水在内的极端天气与气候事件频发已引起国际社会的广泛关注,研究气候变化对洪水灾害的影响既是全面理解气候变化影响的重要内容,也是减轻洪水灾害风险的实际需要。从气象水文和灾害风险两大领域综述了气候变化对洪水灾害影响的研究进展,从反映洪水灾害系统的雨情、水情和灾情角度,全面总结了当前国内外对极端降水、极端径流和洪水损失的变化及归因研究,梳理了研究方法与研究成果方面的主要进展及存在的问题,并探讨了未来的研究方向。指出加强数据积累,完善气候模式与水文模型的耦合,加强承灾体脆弱性及其变化的评估,综合洪水致灾过程与灾情结果的分析,推动气象水文与灾害风险学科领域的交叉研究应成为未来研究的重点。     

亚洲中部干旱区气候变化与丝路文明变迁研究:进展与问题

亚洲中部干旱区是对全球气候变化响应最为敏感的地区之一,也是水文变化剧烈和生态环境脆弱的地区。该地区包括了古丝绸之路的主体,在东西方交流和丝路文明兴衰历史中发挥了关键的作用。科学评估全球增温背景下亚洲中部干旱区人类社会可持续发展面临的风险,是广受关注的重大科学问题。东西方交流和丝路文明发展历史及其与气候环境变化关系的研究,可为认识该地区不同时间尺度人地关系演变的规律提供科学依据。通过总结东西方交流与丝路文明兴衰历史、亚洲中部干旱区全新世气候变化过程、多时间尺度气候一水文变化机制以及人与环境相互作用的过程与规律等领域的研究进展,提出目前亚洲中部干旱区全新世气候环境变化时空格局和丝路文明演化的过程,以及人与环境相互作用机制的研究存在明显不足。破解亚洲中部干旱区气候变化和文化演化研究区域不均衡问题,加强地学与考古学等多学科交叉研究,是推进气候变化与丝路文明变迁研究的有效途径。这对理解该地区人地关系演化规律、应对气候变化带来的挑战、服务国家“一带一路”倡议具有重要的科学价值和现实意义。     

气候变化脆弱性及其国际研究进展

脆弱性一词广泛应用于不同的学科群体,由于各自学科研究传统和知识背景的差异,对脆弱性的理解和界定具有很大的差异性.依据近年来国外在该领域的主要研究成果,总结和综述了气候变化脆弱性概念的基本要素、脆弱性因素的分类特征;梳理了国际研究在灾害与权利的关系、社会和生态的综合集成方面的主流和进展;分析了脆弱性研究在度量、实证和治理应用等方面的主要挑战和方向.     

民航飞行CO2排放及其对气候变化影响研究综述

碳排放是国际社会共同关注的热点,从碳减排到碳中和,已成为全球共同的目标。CO₂是航空飞行排放中最丰富的气体,尽管在人类活动碳排放总量中占比不大,但其影响会成数倍增加,因此,全球性应对气候变化的共同行动使得航空运输业必须重视CO₂排放。随着我国民航业快速发展,航空燃油消耗所产生的碳排放也在不断增长,这就给我国实现碳减排目标徒增压力,所以,民航飞行碳排放的气候变化效应问题就显得十分重要,且具有很强的科学性。国内外特别是国际上就这一课题进行了较多研究,形成了较丰富的成果。通过对相关主要成果的深入研阅和凝练,从碳排放测算、碳排放对气候变化的影响等方面评述了目前较为主流的航空飞行碳排放及其气候变化效应的研究进展和工作动态,并提出了未来的探索方向。通过对航空飞行排放影响的另一个角度的梳理总结,有助于未来更加全面地认识气候变化问题,以期为相关部门学者和科技工作者开展我国科学全面的减排对策研究提供参考。     

Energy sector policies in Botswana and their implications for global climate change

Like most African countries, Botswana contributes almost insignificantly to global greenhouse emissions (GHGs). In this context, some have argued that energy policy and legislative measures to regulate emissions in Botswana should not be accorded high priority. This is a misguided view when one considers that each country, no matter how under-industrialized, contributes to the overall global emission problem. Moreover, the least developed countries will have to industrialize in order to meet the increasing economic and social needs of their growing populations. For rapidly growing economies like Botswana, whose annual energy demand is projected to increase by about 4% for the next ten years, the importance of compiling accurate inventories of sources and sinks of GHGs and formulating environmentally-friendly policies can hardly be over- emphasized. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) provides the ideal basis for the country-by-country investigations and management of global climatic change; specifically its nature, properties, directionality, characteristics and probable consequences. Botswana was a founding signatory of UNFCCC in 1992 and ratified the Convention in 1994. The country is also involved in regional cooperation efforts, within the Southern African Development Community, to enforce regulatory mechanisms to minimize GHG emissions from the energy sector. There exist certain energy-related institutions, policies, and regulations in the country which could mitigate the impact of GHG emissions on global warming. This paper, based on government and other relevant documentation, critically analyses Botswana's energy sector policies in as far as they affect climate change. It is clear that much still needs to be done about energy policies in terms of proper formulation, monitoring, co-ordination, energy pricing and the exploration of energy alternatives to mitigate potentially negative impacts on climate change.     

Assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from coal and natural gas thermal power plants using life cycle approach

The importance of mitigation of climate change due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from various developmental and infrastructure projects has generated interest at global level to reduce environmental impacts. Life cycle assessment may be used as a tool to assess GHG emissions and subsequent environmental impacts resulting from electricity generation from thermal power plants. This study uses life cycle approach for assessing GHG emissions and their impacts due to natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) and imported coal thermal power plants using the IPCC 2001 and Eco-Indicator 99(H) methods in India for the first time. The total GHG emission from the NGCC thermal power plant was 584 g CO₂ eq/kWh electricity generation, whereas in case of imported coal, it was 1,127 g CO₂ eq/kWh electricity generation. This shows that imported coal has nearly ~2 times more impacts when compared to natural gas in terms of global warming potential and human health as disability-adjusted life years from climate change due to GHG emissions such as carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O).     

Uncertainties of carbon emission from hydroelectric reservoirs

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have substantially contributed to intensification of heavy precipitation and thus the risk of flood occurrence, and this anthropogenic climate change is now likely to continue for many centuries. Thus, precise quantification of human-induced GHG emissions is urgently required for modeling future global warming and precipitation changes, which is strongly linked to flood disasters. Recently, GHG evasion from hydroelectric reservoirs was estimated to be 48 Tg C as CO₂ and 3 Tg C as CH₄ annually, lower than earlier estimate (published in Nature Geoscience; 2011). Here, we analyzed the uncertainties of GHG emissions from hydroelectric reservoirs, that is, reservoir surface area, data paucity and carbon emission relating to ecological zone, and argued that GHG evasion from global hydroelectric reservoirs has been largely under-estimated. Our study hopes to improve the quantification for future researches.     

Research Progress on the Impact of Urbanization on Climate Change

The world has been undergoing a remarkable process of urbanization, especially in developing countries in recent years. The urbanization process has brought about great urban development and large population agglomeration, changes in production and lifestyle, and man-made disturbances such as greenhouse gas and pollution emissions. As the global urbanization process continues to advance, its impact on climate change continues to strengthen significantly. This paper mainly reviewed and summarized relevant researches from two aspects: the influence of urbanization on climate change and the mechanism of influence of urbanization on climate change. Urbanization causes regional warming and urban heat island effect, extreme events such as high temperature, heat wave and heavy rainfall increase in frequency, and also leads to increased urban flood risk. The increase of pollutant emission in the process of urbanization is the main cause of air quality deterioration. Urbanization also has an indirect impact on air quality by changing urban climate. Urbanization has an important impact on climatic factors such as relative humidity, wind speed, sunshine and cloud cover. The impacts of urbanization on climate change are mainly realized through underlying surface changes, greenhouse gas and pollution emissions, anthropogenic heat emissions and urban high heat capacity. Urbanization not only directly affects the regional/local climate, but also indirectly affects the regional/local climate by promoting global climate change. Therefore, the impact of urbanization on climate change has a global and regional multi-scale superposition effect.     

近千年全球气候变化的长积分模拟试验

近千年全球气候变化的长积分模拟试验是全球气候模拟研究的新领域,它不仅将现代器测资料与过去代用指标序列进行了有机的衔接,而且对过去百年和年代际尺度的气候变化可进行动力学解释,探讨其主要控制因素及其导致的区域响应差异。由于这类长积分模拟对计算机技术和气候模式本身的要求较高,目前能进行这类研究的国家为数不多。重点介绍了德国马普气象研究所的全球海气耦合气候模式ECHO G,以及利用该模式进行的千年长积分模拟试验结果。首先,应用全球120年的器测资料对模拟结果进行了检验,论证了该模型较强的气候模拟能力;其次,根据全球地表2 m气温的千年模拟结果,揭示了中世纪暖期—小冰期—20世纪暖期三段式气候变化时段,然后讨论了中世纪暖期和小冰期鼎盛期全球及中国的温度分布特点;最后根据对各控制因子的拟合分析与比较,初步揭示了近千年来的温度变化主要受太阳有效辐射的变化控制,而温室气体含量的增加对100年来温度的快速上升起着主导作用。      

A Profile of International Climate Change Science in the Past One Hundred Years*

Climate change is one of the most active research fields currently, which has attracted extensive attention from the international community. In order to better understand the development situation and research status of international climate change science, in this paper we took the SSCI and SCI databases as data sources, collected the relevant literatures since 1900 based on the key words related to climate change, and made some statistics and analysis of the literatures of the past one hundred years to reveal the development process of climate change research as well as the development and evolution of its research topics and hot spots. The results showed that the climate change research began in the late 18 th century and early 19 th century, and the academic debate about global warming and global cooling started in the early 1970s. The international programs and projects led by a range of international organizations and intergovernmental bodies have contributed significantly to the rapid development of climate change research. The United States and the United Kingdom have long been the core countries of climate change research. The proportion of Chinese papers has risen rapidly in the last decade. The intensity and scope of scientific research cooperation are constantly expanding. Current research focuses on climate model/modeling, climate simulation, climate policy, climate sensitivity, climate change impacts, climate change adaptation, climate change mitigation, and rate of climate change.     

Analyzing CO2 emissions mitigation by technology improvement in Central and Eastern Europe

As a legacy of the centrally planned economy, the economies in transition of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have a unique potential to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions through the improvement in their high energy intensities. Since much of this `low-hanging fruit' in energy-efficiency improvements can be highly cost-effective, many developed countries facing difficulties in meeting their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets domestically are eager to find such opportunities in the CEE region. Therefore, studies analysing the potentials and costs of carbon dioxide reduction through technology improvement in the region have come into the limelight. While there are a few excellent studies in the region aimed at analysing climate change abatement potentials, they all embark on different assumptions, methodologies and boundary conditions. It is hence difficult, if not impossible, to compare and analyse the results of these studies across different authors, countries or time horizons. Consequently, the purpose of this paper is to place four leading studies on GHG mitigation through technology improvement from the CEE region into an internationally comparable framework. Four studies were selected from three countries, Poland, Hungary and Estonia, which are all the results of major national and international efforts to assess costs and potentials of GHG reduction. The paper places their assumptions, methods and final results into a framework which enables policy-makers and project designers to compare these across geographical and technological boundaries. Since other studies from around the globe have been analysed in this framework in the literature, this paper provides a vehicle for the findings of these four studies to be compared to others worldwide. In addition, the paper highlights a few areas where similar studies to be completed in the future in the region may be enhanced by incorporating features used in GHG mitigation research in other parts of the world. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

国际温室气体减排情景方案比较分析

在整理、介绍主要国际组织、国家、研究机构和一些学者所提出的温室气体减排情景方案、减排目标和设想的基础上,对当前国际上主要的温室气体减排情景方案的温室气体减排目标、大气温室气体浓度目标和温度控制目标进行了归纳、比较和综合分析。研究结果表明：①国际组织和主要国家对温度升高的控制目标总体以2℃为主,即到21世纪末,将大气温度控制在不高于工业革命前2℃的范围内;②国际组织和主要国家的温室气体减排方案一般都倾向于在2050年将大气温室气体浓度控制在450×10^-6~550×10^-6CO₂e（二氧化碳当量）的范围内,但各个方案中有关具体的减排责任分配、减排措施和减排量分歧仍然较大;③在确定温室气体减排目标和减排配额时,国际组织和主要国家一般都按照“共同但有区别”的原则,倾向于为发达国家制定减排目标,但也有个别方案认为发展中国家也应承担量化的减排义务。     

陆地生态系统碳汇在实现“双碳”目标中的作用和建议

2030年前实现碳达峰、2060年前实现碳中和(简称“双碳”)是我国对国际社会的庄严承诺,已被纳入生态文明建设的总体布局。生态系统碳汇是实现“双碳”目标的重要手段,也是林业和草原实现高质量发展的必然要求。国际有关机构对全球森林、草地和湿地生态系统的碳储量和碳循环进行了评估。自1990年以来,附件一国家(指《联合国气候变化框架公约》附件一列出的经济合作发展组织中所有发达国家和经济转型国家)对本国的碳排放和碳汇进行估算,编制了年度温室气体清单; 我国也编制了5次国家温室气体清单。这些工作对我国开展应对气候变化的研究提供了基础。提出了如下建议: 在编制“双碳” 路线图和时间表时,既要考虑我国生态系统碳汇与能源和工业领域碳排放在区域空间分布和时间维度上的差异性,也要考虑生态系统同时所具有的碳汇和碳排放的特殊性; 生态系统碳汇是碳达峰的非选项,是碳中和的必选项; 生态系统碳汇要遵循国家实现“双碳”目标的基本原则,要将生态系统碳汇作为国家生态建设和保护工程的主要目标,提高碳汇计量和监测能力,完善市场和融资机制。     

A Study of Global Change Population and Economic System Risk Forming Mechanism and Assessment

Global climate change featured with warming has created serious challenge to world sustainable development and human security. It has become an important consensus of the international society to assess global change risk at the global scale and carry out tailored governance and risk-based adaptation. National Key Research and Development Program “Study on global change population and economic system risk forming mechanism and assessment” aims at quantitatively predicting future global climate change and population and economic system exposure and vulnerability change, developing global change population and economic system risk assessment model based on complex system dynamics, synthesizing risk assessment model with proprietary intellectual property rights, assess global change population and economic system risk of the near and mid future at the global scale, and compiling the atlas of global change population and economic system risk. The outcomes intend to serve the participation of global risk governance and international climate negotiation, and to provide scientific support to the implementation of international disaster risk reduction strategy.