Interannual-to-decadal variability of the North Atlantic from an ocean data assimilation system

An ocean analysis, assimilating both surface and subsurface hydrographic temperature data into a global ocean model, has been produced for the period 1958–2000, and used to study the time and space variations of North Atlantic upper ocean heat content (HC). Observational evidence is presented for interannual-to-decadal variability of upper ocean thermal fluctuations in the North Atlantic related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability over the last 40 years. The assimilation scheme used in the ocean analysis is a univariate, variational optimum interpolation of temperature. The first guess is produced by an eddy permitting global ocean general circulation forced by atmospheric reanalysis from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The validation of the ocean analysis has been done through the comparison with objectively analyzed observations and independent data sets. The method is able to compensate for the model systematic error to reproduce a realistic vertical thermal structure of the region and to improve consistently the model estimation of the time variability of the upper ocean temperature. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis shows that an important mode of variability of the wintertime upper ocean climate over the North Atlantic during the period of study is characterized by a tripole pattern both for SST and upper ocean HC. A similar mode is found for summer HC anomalies but not for summer SST. Over the whole period, HC variations in the subtropics show a general warming trend while the tropical and north eastern part of the basin have an opposite cooling tendency. Superimposed on this linear trend, the HC variability explained by the first EOF both in winter and summer conditions reveals quasi-decadal oscillations correlated with changes in the NAO index. On the other hand, there is no evidence of correlation in time between the NAO index and the upper ocean HC averaged over the whole North Atlantic which exhibits a substantial and monotonic warming trend during the last two decades of the analysis period. The maximum correlation is found between the leading principal component of winter HC anomalies and NAO index at 1 year lag with NAO leading. For SST anomalies significant correlation is found only for winter conditions. In contrast, for HC anomalies high correlations are found also in the summer suggesting that the summer HC keeps a memory of winter conditions.     

Impact of ocean optical properties on seasonal SST: results with a surface ocean model coupled to the LMD AGCM

As the accuracy of ocean models improves, determination of the solar irradiance within the ocean may become important to simulate precisely the seasonal evolution of the SST. As ocean optical properties are not well documented in space and time, we have undertaken a sensitivity study to measure the corresponding SST uncertainties at a global scale using a model coupling the LMD AGCM with an integral mixed layer model and a thermodynamic sea ice representation. The downwelling irradiance formulation is that of Paulson and Simpson which has been tuned for the five water types of the Jerlov classification. Two sensitivity, and academic, experiments corresponding to a uniformly clear ocean or turbid ocean are carried out. Turbid waters exhibit, in general, a stronger seasonal cycle of the SST of about 2°C. The sensitivity is far from uniform, with a maximum in the subtropics and the mid-latitudes of the summer hemisphere. It corresponds precisely to the area in which the observed optical properties present a large temporal variability which is therefore likely to have an action on the seasonal cycle of the ocean surface temperatures. We perform a decomposition of the model sensitivity in four terms, corresponding to the direct impact of the water type change, feedback due to the mixed layer change, feedback due to the surface solar irradiance change, and feedback due to the non solar heat fluxes change. The first two terms dominate the SST change. The direct effect tends to increase the warming of the mixed layer. In addition, the mixed layer depth diminishes because of a higher stabilizing effect of solar radiation on the TKE budget. This tends to increase further summer warming of the SST as well as their winter cooling.     

全球海洋资料同化系统ZFL_GODAS的研制和初步评估试验

本研究发展了一个全球海洋资料同化系统ZFL_GODAS。该系统是一个短期气候数值预测业务系统的子系统,为短期气候预测海气耦合模式提供全球海洋初始场。系统能够同化的观测资料包括卫星高度计资料、卫星海表温度(SST)资料,以及Argo、XBT、TAO等各种不同来源的现场温盐廓线资料。系统使用的海洋模式为中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室开发的气候系统海洋模式LICOM1.0,同化方案为集合最优插值(EnOI)方案。系统使用一个由海洋模式自由积分得到的静态样本来估计背景场误差协方差。这样的基于集合样本的背景场误差协方差具有多变量协变、各向异性的特征,且能反映海洋物理过程固有的空间尺度特征。针对EnOI同化程序的特点,开发了一套特色鲜明、负载均衡、高效的并行化同化程序。本文通过与不同类型观测资料的比较,对同化系统的性能进行了评估。通过比较海表温度和海面高度的年际变率,海表温度异常随时间的变化,SST、海面高度异常(SLA)以及次表层温盐预报产品的均方根误差,5年平均温度偏差廓线、平均盐度廓线、平均纬向流速廓线等发现:系统工作正常、同化效果较好;经过同化以后,各变量都更加接近观测,误差更小,与观测场的相关性更好,可以为短期气候预测系统提供较好的海洋初始场,也可以为物理海洋学的研究提供有效的再分析资料。     

从空间探测闪电的综述

从空间探测闪电 30多年的历史看 ,一些卫星闪电遥感仪器已提供了许多极有价值的资料 ,例如 ,闪电全球范围内发生的频率 ,其随纬度和季节的变化以及日变化 ,超级闪电的发生等等。这些资料在雷电灾害预警预防、强对流天气监测、某些军事目标的识别等业务和科研工作中得到了应用。本文是关于空间探测闪电的一个综述 ,主要介绍过去 35a一些星载闪电光学探测器 ,并给出由这些仪器观测资料分析所得到的一些重要结果。最后 ,对发展中国星载闪电探测器提出几点建议。     

全球海表温度年代际尺度的空间分布及其对长江中下游梅雨的影响

使用统计诊断的方法,探讨了近百年全球海表温度年代际尺度的空间分布结构与长江中下游梅雨异常变化的可能联系.采用三次样条函数拟合的方法将1885～2000-全球海表温度场和长江中下游梅雨雨量百分比序列的年代际变化分量分离出来,在分析各自年代际变化特征基础上,研究了全球海表温度的年代际尺度分布结构对长江中下游梅雨异常变化的影响.结果表明(1) 全球海表温度年代际尺度变化分量清晰地表征出气候背景的分布状态,其中太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)型态表现突出,特别是1976年以后太平洋的气候背景呈现暖事件增强的趋势.同时,印度洋及大西洋中部海域的海表温度也表现出明显的升温趋势.(2) 长江中下游梅雨年代际尺度变化趋势与全球海表温度的年代际变化趋势基本一致,特别是与PDO典型分布型态的变化趋势有很好的对应,当PDO暖事件趋势处于较强时期时,长江中下游梅雨为偏多的趋势,反之亦然.其中20世纪70胩代中期PDO出现暖位相增强的突变,长江中下游梅雨也在此时期转入增多的趋势.同时,印度洋、大西洋部分地区的海表温度的年代际变化与梅雨的年代际变化之间也有一定的关联.(3) PDO指数与西太平洋副热带高压面积指数的年代际变化趋势一致的统计事实,从一个侧面说明海洋的-代际变化最终通过副热带高压的变动影响梅雨的异常变化的可能性.     

Marine surface temperature: Observed variations and data requirements

Measurements of temperature at the ocean surface are an indispensible part of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). We describe the varying coverage of these measurements from the mid-nineteenth century through to the present era of satellite data, along with ongoing attempts to augment the available digitized data base. We next survey attempts to remove systematic biases from both sea surface temperature (SST) and marine air temperature (MAT) data and to combinein situ and satellite SSTs in a consistent manner. We also describe new or planned geographically complete climatologies of SST and night MAT for 1961-90. These are expected to be more reliable than existing climatologies in the Southern Ocean and other sparsely-observed areas. The new SST climatology has been used in the construction of an improved geographically-complete data set of sea ice and SST: the techniques used are briefly reviewed, as are other methods of analysis and assessment of worldwide SST.We present global and regional time series of anomalies (i.e. deviations from reference climatology) of SST and night MAT for 1856 to 1994 constructed using the most complete data and best-estimate bias-corrections hitherto available. These series are compared with earlier published series, and are validated by means of comparisons with anomalies of air temperature from coastal and island stations. The sensitivity of the time series to imperfect coverage is assessed by means of frozen grid experiments. The results underscore the need for ongoing development of SST and MAT data bases within GCOS for the detection of climatic change, and for improved methods of analysis to optimally isolate the signals from incomplete data.The British Crown right to retain a non-exclusive royalty-free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

Observed Frequent Occurrences of Marine Heatwaves in Most Ocean Regions during the Last Two Decades

Marine heatwaves(MHWs) are prolonged high-temperature extreme events in the ocean that can be devastating to marine life and seriously impact climate systems and economies. This paper describes the accessibility, content,characteristics, and potential applications of an MHW dataset to facilitate its use in scientific research. Daily intensities of global MHWs from 1982 to 2020 were analyzed using gridded SST data sourced from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) Optimum Inte...     

Estimation of net radiation at sea

Abstract

Measurement of net radiation at sea is very difficult whereas, the measurement of global solar radiation or total downward radiation is much less complicated. Hence the dependencies of net radiation on global solar radiation and total downward radiation are studied from hourly Canadian GATE data.

Results show that net radiation can be estimated from measurements of incoming solar radiation or total downward radiation by empirical formulae to an accuracy comparable to that of measurement. However, these formulae must be established from measurements.     

Spatial reorganization of SST anomalies by stationary atmospheric waves

The dynamics of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that force stationary atmospheric waves, which in turn, feed back on the SST field is addressed. The phenomena is isolated by analyzing the dynamics of a slab ocean that is thermally coupled to an atmospheric model. Particular emphasis is put on identifying SST structures that are weakly damped by the joint effect of air–sea heat transfer and atmospheric wave dynamics.A frame work is presented that singles out long-lived SST features in a slab ocean coupled to an arbitrary linear atmospheric model. It is demonstrated that an SST anomaly eventually disintegrates into a number of propagating wave packets. The wave packets are confined in a Gaussian envelope, and each packet is tied to a stationary wave of a particular wavelength. These structures are a manifestation of coupled SST-atmosphere mode, for which the atmosphere and the ocean nearly are in thermal equilibrium. However, a small disequilibrium causes the wave packet to propagate and to broaden in an apparent diffusive manner.Central ideas pertaining to the mid-latitude SST dynamics are illustrated by analyzing the thermal feedback between a two-level atmospheric model (on a β-plane) and a dynamically passive slab ocean. The relevance of the present idealized coupled-modes to the SST variability in the mid-latitudes and in atmospheric GCMs coupled to slab oceans is discussed.     

An investigation of the relationship between sub‐Saharan rainfall and global sea surface temperatures

Abstract

The relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall index anomalies over sub‐Saharan Africa for the 15‐year period, 1970–84, has been examined. The objectively analysed monthly mean SST data were used for the global oceans between 40°S and 60°N. The rainfall data consist of annual mean rainfall indices for the Sahel and Soudan belts over north Africa.

An Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis of the SST data has been carried out for the Atlantic, Indian and global ocean regions. The results show that the most dominant eigenmode, EOF1, is characterized by warming over the central eastern Pacific, cooling over the eastern mid‐latitude Pacific and warming over the entire Atlantic and Indian ocean basins. The second EOF for the Atlantic Ocean SST analysis shows a dipole (north‐south see‐saw) pattern. The third EOF for the Atlantic SST analysis has the same sign over the entire Atlantic basin. Global SST EOF2 and EOF3 correspondió Atlantic SST EOF3 and EOF2, respectively.

The correlation between the sub‐Saharan annual rainfall index, which mainly represents the summer season rainfall from June to September, and SST EOFs shows that EOF1 has statistically significant monthly correlations for the Sahel and Soudan regions and that the warm El Niño‐like phases of SST EOF1 correspond to drought conditions. This result suggests that the large‐scale SST anomalies may be responsible for a significant component of the observed vacillation of sub‐Saharan rainfall. Some preliminary GLA GCM simulation results that support the above findings are also presented.     

A study on air–sea interaction on the simulated seasonal climate in an ocean–atmosphere coupled model

This study investigates the effects of air–sea interaction upon simulated tropical climatology, focusing on the boreal summer mean precipitation and the embedded intra-seasonal oscillation (ISO) signal. Both the daily coupling of ocean–atmosphere and the diurnal variation of sea surface temperature (SST) at every time step by accounting for the ocean mixed layer and surface-energy budget at the ocean surface are considered. The ocean–atmosphere coupled model component of the global/regional integrated model system has been utilized. Results from the coupled model show better precipitation climatology than those from the atmosphere-only model, through the inclusion of SST–cloudiness–precipitation feedback in the coupled system. Cooling the ocean surface in the coupled model is mainly responsible for the improved precipitation climatology, whereas neither the coupling itself nor the diurnal variation in the SST influences the simulated climatology. However, the inclusion of the diurnal cycle in the SST shows a distinct improvement of the simulated ISO signal, by either decreasing or increasing the magnitude of spectral powers, as compared to the simulation results that exclude the diurnal variation of the SST in coupled models.     

ENSIP: the El Niño simulation intercomparison project

An ensemble of twenty four coupled ocean-atmosphere models has been compared with respect to their performance in the tropical Pacific. The coupled models span a large portion of the parameter space and differ in many respects. The intercomparison includes TOGA (Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere)-type models consisting of high-resolution tropical ocean models and coarse-resolution global atmosphere models, coarse-resolution global coupled models, and a few global coupled models with high resolution in the equatorial region in their ocean components. The performance of the annual mean state, the seasonal cycle and the interannual variability are investigated. The primary quantity analysed is sea surface temperature (SST). Additionally, the evolution of interannual heat content variations in the tropical Pacific and the relationship between the interannual SST variations in the equatorial Pacific to fluctuations in the strength of the Indian summer monsoon are investigated. The results can be summarised as follows: almost all models (even those employing flux corrections) still have problems in simulating the SST climatology, although some improvements are found relative to earlier intercomparison studies. Only a few of the coupled models simulate the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in terms of gross equatorial SST anomalies realistically. In particular, many models overestimate the variability in the western equatorial Pacific and underestimate the SST variability in the east. The evolution of interannual heat content variations is similar to that observed in almost all models. Finally, the majority of the models show a strong connection between ENSO and the strength of the Indian summer monsoon.     

A stochastic model of SST for climate simulation experiments

 This study describes the implementation of a statistical method to simulate a multi-century sequence of global sea surface temperature (SST) fields. A multi-variable auto-regressive (AR) model is trained on the observed time series of SST from the data set compiled at the Hadley Centre (GISST 2.0). To reduce the dimensionality of the model, the stochastic process is in practice fitted to empirical orthogonal function (EOF) time coefficients of the SST series, retaining the first 14 EOFs. Selected lag cross-covariances among the EOF time series are retained, based on the structure of the cross-correlation matrix and lags up to 64 months are included. Though the resulting system is quite large (a 14-dimensional AR process, with 400 parameters to be determined) the calculation is possible and a stable process is obtained. The process can then be used to investigate some statistical properties of the SST data set and to generate synthetic SST data that could be used in very long numerical experiments with atmospheric or ocean models in which only the main features of the observed statistics of the SST must be retained. Results indicate that the synthetic SST data set seems to be of usable quality as boundary condition for the atmosphere or the ocean in climate experiments. Analysis of extreme events and extreme decades in the synthetic SST data confirms the exceptional character of the 1980s, but also provides circumstantial evidence that the 1980s were indeed within the limits of the statistics of the previously observed record. Received: 6 August 1996 / Accepted: 29 September 1997     

Short timescale air-sea coupling in the tropical deep convective regime

Summary The relationship between surface rainfall rate and sea-surface temperature (SST) over tropical cloudy areas is revisited, and associated air-sea interaction processes are investigated based on hourly grid simulation data over cloudy areas from a two-dimensional coupled ocean-cloud resolving atmosphere model. A cloud-weighted data analysis shows that surface evaporation flux decreases with increasing SST and is one order of magnitude smaller than the residual between moisture convergence and condensation, playing a negligible role in moisture budget. Moisture convergence determines the surface rainfall rate by determining vapor condensation and deposition rates. Ocean mixed-layer thermal budget shows that the atmospheric surface flux is a major process responsible for SST variation while thermal advection and thermal entrainment play a secondary role. The results indicate that atmospheric impacts on the ocean are important whereas oceanic impacts on the atmosphere are not, in the tropical air-sea system, on short timescales. Thus, the relationship between surface rainfall rate and SST over tropical cloudy areas is not physically important. Further estimates indicate that the surface evaporation flux and residual between moisture convergence and condensation could have the same order of magnitude in daily-mean moisture budget.     

Blunt ocean dynamical thermostat in response of tropical eastern Pacific SST to global warming

Using an intermediate ocean–atmosphere coupled model (ICM) for the tropical Pacific, we investigated the role of the ocean dynamical thermostat (ODT) in regulating the tropical eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) under global warming conditions. The external, uniformly distributed surface heating results in the cooling of the tropical eastern Pacific “cold tongue,” and the amplitude of the cooling increases as more heat is added but not simply linearly. Furthermore, an upper bound for the influence of the equatorially symmetric surface heating on the cold tongue cooling exists. The additional heating beyond the upper bound does not cool the cold tongue in a systematic manner. The heat budget analysis suggests that the zonal advection is the primary factor that contributes to such nonlinear SST response. The radiative heating due to the greenhouse effect (hereafter, RHG) that is obtained from the multi-model ensemble of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase III (CMIP3) was externally given to ICM. The RHG obtained from the twentieth century simulation intensified the cold tongue cooling and the subtropical warming, which were further intensified by the RHG from the doubled CO₂ concentration simulation. However, the cold tongue cooling was significantly reduced and the negative SST response region was shrunken toward the equator by the RHG from the quadrupled CO₂ concentration simulation, while the subtropical warming increased further. A systematic RHG forced experiment having the same spatial pattern of RHG from doubled CO₂ concentration simulation with different amplitude of forcing revealed that the ocean dynamical response to global warming tended to enhance the cooling in the tropical eastern Pacific by virtue of meridional advection and upwelling; however, these cooling effects could not fully compensate a given RHG warming as the external forcing becomes larger. Moreover, the feedback by the zonal thermal advection actually exerted the warming over the equatorial region. Therefore, as the global warming is intensified, the cooling over the eastern tropical Pacific by ODT and the negative SST response area are reduced.     

Relative roles of dynamic and thermodynamic processes in causing positive and negative global mean SST trends during the past 100 years

Global mean surface temperature (GMST) during 1910–2012 experienced four alternated rapid warming and warming hiatus phases. Such a temporal variation is primarily determined by global mean sea surface temperature (SST) component. The relative roles of ocean dynamic and thermodynamic processes in causing such global mean SST variations are investigated, using two methods. The first method is ocean mixed layer heat budget analysis. The budget diagnosis result shows that the thermodynamic processes dominate in the rapid warming phases, while the ocean dynamics dominate during the hiatus phases. The second method relies on the diagnosis of a simple equilibrium state model. This model captures well the horizontal distribution of SST difference between two warmer and cooler equilibrium states during either the rapid warming or hiatus phases. It is found that the SST difference during the rapid warming phases is primarily controlled by the increase of downward longwave radiation as both column integrated water vapor and CO₂ increase during the phases. During the hiatus phases, the water vapor induced greenhouse effect offsets the CO₂ effect, and the SST cooling tendency is primarily determined by the ocean dynamics over the Southern Ocean and tropical Pacific. The SST pattern associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) might be responsible for the remote and local ocean dynamic responses through induced wind change.     

IMPROVEMENT OF OCEAN DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM AND CLIMATE PREDICTION BY ASSIMILATING ARGO DATA

The Argo(Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography) data from 1998 to 2003 were used in the Beijing Climate Center-Global Ocean Data Assimilation System(BCC-GODAS). The results show that the utilization of Argo global ocean data in BCC-GODAS brings about remarkable improvements in assimilation effects. The assimilated sea surface temperature(SST) of BCC-GODAS can well represent the climatological states of observational data. Comparison experiments based on a global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model(AOCGM) were conducted for exploring the roles of ocean data assimilation system with or without Argo data in improving the climate predictability of rainfall in boreal summer. Firstly, the global ocean data assimilation system BCC-GODAS was used to obtain ocean assimilation data under the conditions with or without Argo data. Then, the global coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model(AOCGM) was utilized to do hindcast experiments with the two sets of the assimilation data as initial oceanic fields. The simulated results demonstrate that the seasonal predictability of rainfall in boreal summer, particularly in China, increases greatly when initial oceanic conditions with Argo data are utilized. The distribution of summer rainfall in China hindcast by the AOGCM under the condition when Argo data are used is more in accordance with observation than that when no Agro data are used. The area of positive correlation between hindcast and observation enlarges and the hindcast skill of rainfall over China in summer improves significantly when Argo data are used.     

基于仿真的6.9 GHz通道亮温改进FY-3D MWRI海面温度产品

海洋表面温度SST（Sea Surface Temperature）是全球海洋和气候研究的重要参数之一,卫星被动微波遥感由于能够实现全天候观测而被越来越多的应用到SST研究中。中国的风云三号（FY 3）卫星搭载的微波成像仪（MWRI）缺少对SST更加敏感的7 GHz附近垂直极化通道,本研究将FY 3 MWRI与具有6.9 GHz通道的Aqua AMSR 2进行时空匹配,采用神经网络方法,利用匹配的FY 3 MWRI的通道亮温模拟仿真AMSR 2的69 GHz垂直极化通道亮温（6.9V）,通过引入仿真的6.9V来提高FY 3 MWRI SST的反演精度。结果表明：引入仿真的6.9V可以改进FY 3 MWRI SST反演精度,对35°～90°S之间海域的SST改进更加显著,主要由于6.9V对低SST的探测灵敏度更高且在低SST反演时受风速的影响较小导致的。如果FY3后续卫星可以搭载6.9 GHz通道,将可进一步提升低SST特别是两极SST的反演精度。     

Argo大洋观测资料的同化及其在短期气候预测和海洋分析中的应用

国际Argo(Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanography)计划的实施,提供了前所未有的全球深海大洋0～2000 m水深范围内的海水温度和盐度观测资料,在大气和海洋科研业务中应用这一全新的资料,是深入认识大气和海洋变异、提高我国气候预测、海洋监测分析和预报能力的一个关键所在.通过开发非线性温—盐协调同化方案和利用同化高度计资料来调整模式的温度和盐度场,建立了可同化包括Argo等多种海洋观测资料的全球海洋资料变分同化系统,提高了对全球海洋的监测分析能力.实现了海洋资料同化系统与全球海气耦合模式的耦合,显著提高了短期气候预测水平.利用Argo资料改进了海洋动力模式中的物理过程参数化方案,有效提高了海洋模式对真实大洋的模拟能力和对厄尔尼诺/拉尼娜的预测能力.开发了利用Argo浮标漂流轨迹推算全球海洋表层和中层流的方法,提高了推算的全球表层流、中层流资料质量,有效弥补了洋流观测的匮乏.     

Can local linear stochastic theory explain sea surface temperature and salinity variability?

 Sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) time series from four ocean weather stations and data from an integration of the GFDL coupled ocean-atmosphere model are analyzed to test the applicability of local linear stochastic theory to the mixed-layer ocean. According to this theory, mixed-layer variability away from coasts and fronts can be explained as a ‘red noise’ response to the ‘white noise’ forcing by atmospheric disturbances. At one weather station, Papa (northeast Pacific), this stochastic theory can be applied to both salinity and temperature, explaining the relative redness of the SSS spectrum. Similar results hold for a model grid point adjacent to Papa, where the relationships between atmospheric energy and water fluxes and actual changes in SST and SSS are what is expected from local linear stochastic theory. At the other weather stations, this theory cannot adequately explain mixed-layer variability. Two oceanic processes must be taken into account: at Panulirus (near Bermuda), mososcale eddies enhance the observed variability at high frequencies. At Mike and India (North Atlantic), variations in SST and SSS advection, indicated by the coherence and equal persistence of SST and SSS anomalies, contribute to much of the low frequency variability in the model and observations. To achieve a global perspective, TOPEX altimeter data and model results are used to identify regions of the ocean where these mechanisms of variability are important. Where mesoscale eddies are as energetic as at Panulirus, indicated by the TOPEX global distribution of sea level variability, one would expect enhanced variability on short time scales. In regions exhibiting signatures of variability similar to Mike and India, variations in SST and SSS advection should dominate at low frequencies. According to the model, this mode of variability is found in the circumpolar ocean and the northern North Atlantic, where it is associated with the irregular oscillations of the model’s thermohaline circulation. Received: 11 March 1996 / Accepted: 6 September 1996