Hurricane storm surge simulations for Tampa Bay

Using a high resolution, three-dimensional, primitive equation, finite volume coastal ocean model with flooding and drying capabilities, supported by a merged bathymetric-topographic data set and driven by prototypical hurricane winds and atmospheric pressure fields, we investigated the storm surge responses for the Tampa Bay, Florida, vicinity and their sensitivities to point of landfall, direction and speed of approach, and intensity. All of these factors were found to be important. Flooding potential by wind stress and atmospheric pressure induced surge is significant for a category 2 hurricane and catastrophic for a category 4 hurricane. Tide, river, and wave effects are additive, making the potential for flood-induced damage even greater. Since storm surge sets up as a slope to the sea surface, the highest surge tends to occur over the upper reaches of the bay, Old Tampa Bay and Hillsborough Bay in particular. For point of landfall sensitivity, the worst case is when the hurricane center is positioned north of the bay mouth such that the maximum winds associated with the eye wall are at the bay mouth. Northerly (southerly) approaching storms yield larger (smaller) surges since the winds initially set up (set down) water level. As a hybrid between the landfall and direction sensitivity experiments, a storm transiting up the bay axis from southwest to northeast yields the smallest surge, debunking a misconception that this is the worst Tampa Bay flooding case. Hurricanes with slow (fast) translation speeds yield larger (smaller) surges within Tampa Bay due to the time required to redistribute mass.     

Effects of Hurricane Ivan on water quality in Pensacola Bay, Florida

Pensacola Bay, Florida, was in the strong northeast quadrant of Hurricane Ivan when it made landfall on September 16, 2004 as a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. We present data describing the timeline and maximum height of the storm surge, the extent of flooding of coastal land, and the magnitude of the freshwater inflow pulse that followed the storm. We computed the magnitude of tidal flushing associated with the surge using a tidal prism model. We also evaluated hurricane effects on water quality using water quality surveys conducted 20 and 50 d after the storm, which we compared with a survey 14 d before landfall. We evaluated the scale of hurricane effects relative to normal variability using a 5-yr monthly record. Ivan's 3.5 m storm surge inundated 165 km² of land, increasing the surface area of Pensacola Bay by 50% and its volume by 230%. The model suggests that 60% of the Bay's volume was flushed, initially increasing the average salinity of Bay waters from 23 to 30 and lowering nutrient and chlorophylla concentrations. Additional computations suggest that wind forcing was sufficient to completely mix the water column during the storm. Freshwater discharge from the largest river increased twentyfold during the subsequent 4 d, stimulating a modest phytoplankton bloom (chlorophyll up to 18 μg l⁻¹) and maintaining hypoxia for several months. Although the immediate physical perturbation was extreme, the water quality effects that persisted beyond the first several days were within the normal range of variability for this system. In terms of water quality and phytoplankton productivity effects, this ecosystem appears to be quite resilient in the face of a severe hurricane effect.     

Changes in the circulation of Tampa Bay due to Hurricane Frances as recorded by ADCP measurements and reproduced with a numerical Ocean model

Hurricane Frances is shown to greatly alter the hydrodynamics within Tampa Bay, Florida, and the exchange of water with the Gulf of Mexico in both observational data and a realistic numerical circulation model of the Tampa Bay estuary. Hurricane Frances hit Tampa Bay on September 5, 2004 with surface winds peaking twice near 22 m s⁻¹. There were three stages to the hydrodynamic effect of Frances on Tampa Bay. The first stage included the approach of Frances up to the first wind peak. The winds were to the south and southeast. During this stage sea level was maintained below mean sea level (MSL) and the residual current (demeaned, detided) was weak. The second stage began as the winds turned to the east and northeast, as the eye passed near the bay, and ended as the second wind peak appeared. During this stage the residual currents were strongly positive (into the bay), raising sea level to 1.2 m above MSL at St. Petersburg. The measured residual circulation peaked at over +0.7 m s⁻¹ near the surface. The model shows this velocity peak yielded a maximum volume flux into the bay of +44,227 m³ s⁻¹, displacing a total volume of 1.5 billion m³ in just a few hours, about 42% of the bay volume. In the third stage a strong negative flow developed as the wind and sea level relaxed to near normal levels. The ADCP measured a peak outflow of −0.8 m s⁻¹ during this time. Model results indicate a maximum flux of −37,575 m³ s⁻¹, and that it took about 50 h to drain the extra volume driven into the bay by Hurricane Frances.     

Benthic Community Structure and Sediment Properties in Barnegat Bay,New Jersey,Before and After Hurricane Sandy

Hurricane Sandy was an extraordinarily large storm that affected most of the eastern coast of the USA in October 2012. To assess this storm’s impact, the benthic invertebrate community structure and sediment properties were compared in samples collected 3.5 months prior to (July 2012) and 8 months after (July 2013) the hurricane at 97 locations in Barnegat Bay, New Jersey, USA. Barnegat Bay is a shallow back-barrier estuary just north of where Sandy made landfall. For all locations taken together, sediment total nitrogen concentration was lower afterwards, while total organic carbon and total phosphorus concentrations were similar. Sediment median particle size was the same before and after, but the sediment was better sorted after the storm. There were no differences in total abundance of invertebrates, species richness, species diversity, or the abundance of polychaetes, bivalves, or gastropods. Malacostracan crustaceans were more abundant after Sandy (average 82 (0.04 m²)^?1) than they were before (average 64), due almost entirely to increased abundance of ampeliscid amphipods, which showed a shift toward smaller sizes in 2013. Annelids in the order Clitellata were on average less abundant after the hurricane (17) than before (53). The apparent minimal effect of Sandy on the benthic community in Barnegat Bay was probably because the passage of the hurricane had no detectable effects on salinity or dissolved oxygen concentrations throughout the bay.     

The Impact of Hurricane Katrina on the Coastal Vegetation of the Weeks Bay Reserve,Alabama from NDVI Data

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data were used to investigate vegetation changes after Hurricane Katrina (2005) for the Weeks Bay Reserve and surrounding area of coastal AL. Landsat 5 satellite images were acquired before landfall (March 24, 2005), after landfall (September 16, 2005), and 8 months after landfall (April 28, 2006). The March 2005 to September 2005 image comparison showed that average NDVI values decreased by 49% after landfall. Continuing into the next year, average NDVI values were −44% lower in April 2006 than they were in March 2005. Among habitat types, the estuarine emergent wetland experienced the largest average NDVI value decrease (−64%). The estuarine emergent wetland NDVI values continued to decrease by −27% from September 2005 to April 2006, whereas other habitats increased in NDVI. This continued suppression of NDVI values was attributed to increased salinity from the storm surge and to regional drought conditions that occurred after landfall. These results provide insight into the sensitivity of coastal vegetation from the interactions of both tropical cyclones and long-term environmental conditions.     

The Influence of Storms on Water Quality and Phytoplankton Dynamics in the Tidal James River

Due to the unpredictable nature of intense storms and logistical constraints of sampling during storms, little is known about their immediate and long-term impacts on water quality in adjacent aquatic ecosystems. By combining targeted experiments with routine monitoring, we evaluated immediate impacts of two successive storm events on water quality and phytoplankton community response in the tidal James River and compared these findings to a non-storm year. The James River is a subestuary of the Chesapeake Bay and sampling was conducted before, during, and after Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm (TS) Lee in 2011 and during the same time period (late summer/early fall) in 2012 when there were no storms. We collected and compiled data on nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations, phytoplankton abundance, nitrogen uptake, primary productivity rates, and surface salinity, temperature, and turbidity in the meso- and polyhaline segments of the James River. Hurricane Irene introduced significant amounts of freshwater over the entire James River and Chesapeake Bay watersheds, while rainfall from TS Lee fell primarily on the tidal fresh region of the James River and headwaters of the Chesapeake Bay. Dinoflagellates dominated the algal community in the meso- and polyhaline segments prior to the storms in 2011, and a mixed diatom community emerged after the storms. In the mesohaline river segment, cyanobacteria abundance increased after TS Lee when salinities were depressed, likely due to washout from the oligohaline and tidal fresh regions of the river. In 2012, dinoflagellates dominated the community in both segments of the river during late summer but diatoms were also abundant and their biomass fluctuated throughout the summer and fall. Cyanobacteria were not present in either segment. Overall, we observed that the high-intensity rainfall from Hurricane Irene combined with high flushing in the headwaters as a result of TS Lee likely reduced primary productivity and altered community composition in the mesohaline segment but not the more estuarine-influenced polyhaline segment. Understanding the influence of high freshwater flow with a short residence time associated with storms is key to the planning and management of estuarine restoration as such disturbances are projected to increase as a result of climate change.     

Indirect Hurricane Effects on Resource Availability and Microbial Communities in a Subtropical Wetland-Estuary Transition Zone

Three sequential hurricanes made landfall over the South Florida peninsula in August and September 2004. The storm systems passed north of the Everglades wetlands and northeastern Florida Bay, but indirect storm effects associated with changes in freshwater discharge during an otherwise drought year occurred across the wetland–estuary transition area. To assess the impacts of the 2004 hurricane series on hydrology, nutrients, and microbial communities in the Everglades wetlands to Florida Bay transition area, results are presented in the context of a seasonal cycle without hurricane activity (2003). Tropical activity in 2004 increased rainfall over South Florida and the study area, thereby temporarily relieving drought conditions. Not so much actual rainfall levels at the study site but more so water management practices in preparation of the hurricane threats, which include draining of an extensive freshwater canal system into the coastal ocean to mitigate inland flooding, rapidly reversed hypersalinity in the wetlands-estuary study area. Although annual discharge was comparable in both years, freshwater discharge in 2004 occurred predominantly during the late wet season, whereas discharge was distributed evenly over the 2003 wet season. Total organic carbon (TOC), ammonium ( \operatornameNH ⁺ ₄ \operatorname{NH} ^{ + }_{4} ), and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentrations increased during the hurricane series to concentrations two to five times higher than long-term median concentrations in eastern Florida Bay. Spatiotemporal patterns in these resource enrichments suggest that TOC and SRP originated from the Everglades mangrove ecotone, while \operatornameNH ⁺ ₄ \operatorname{NH} ^{ + }_{4} originated from the bay. Phytoplankton biomass in the bay increased significantly during storm-related freshwater discharge, but declined at the same time in the wetland mangrove ecotone from bloom conditions during the preceding drought. In the bay, these changes were associated with increased nanophytoplankton and decreased picophytoplankton biomass. Heterotrophic bacterial production increased in response to freshwater discharge, whereas bacterial abundance decreased. Hydrochemical and microbial changes were short-lived, and the wetland–bay transition area reverted to more typical oligotrophic conditions within 3 months after the hurricanes. These results suggest that changes in freshwater discharge after drought conditions and during the hurricane series forced the productivity and P-enriched characteristics of the wetland’s mangrove ecotone, although only briefly, to the south into Florida Bay.     

Dissolved oxygen dynamics in Charlotte Harbor and its contributing watershed, in response to hurricanes Charley, Frances, and Jeanne—Impacts and recovery

On August 13, 2004, Hurricane Charley came ashore in the Charlotte Harbor watershed. Surface winds at the time of landfall were estimated at 130 knots. The track of the hurricane roughly followed the floodplain of the Peace River, causing massive defoliation and mortality of native vegetation and planted citrus groves, as well as substantial damage to human habitation and various infrastructure elements. Eight days after landfall, a water quality monitoring effort documented hypoxic (<2 mg I⁻¹) to nearly anaerobic (<0.5 mg I⁻¹) dissolved oxygen (DO) values throughout the vast majority of the Peace River's c. 6,000 km² watershed. Low DO values appeared to be related to high values of both dissolved organic matter and suspended materials. Hypoxic conditions in Charlotte Harbor itself, occurred within 2 wk of landfall. Approximately 3 wk after the landfall of Hurricane Charley, Hurricane Frances struck the east coast of Florida, causing further wind damage and bringing substantial amounts of rain to the Charlotte Harbor watershed. Three weeks later still, Hurricane Jeanne caused similar damage to the same area. In response to the combined effects of these three hurricanes, DO values in the Peace River did not recover to pre-hurricane levels until approximately 2–3 mo later. The spatial and temporal pattern of DO fluctuations appeared to be related to the proximity of sampling locations to the path of the eyewall of the first of the three hurricanes. Within the Harbor itself, the duration of hypoxic conditions was less than that recorded within the Peace River, perhaps reflecting greater dilution of oxygen-poor waters from the watershed with less-affected water from the Gulf of Mexico.     

Controls on nutrient and phytoplankton dynamics during normal flow and storm runoff conditions, southern Kaneohe Bay, Hawaii

Fluvial effects on nutrient and phytoplankton dynamics were evaluated in southern Kaneohe Bay, Oahu, Hawaii. Fluvial inputs occurred as small, steady baseflows interrupted by intense pulses of storm runoff. Baseflow river inputs only affected restricted areas around stream mouths, but the five storm events sampled during this study produced transient runoff plumes of much greater spatial extent. Nutrient loading via runoff generally led to an increase of the phytoplankton biomass and gross primary productivity in southern Kaneohe Bay, but the rapid depletion of nutrients resulted in a decline of the algal populations in the relatively short time of days. Under baseline conditions, water column primary productivity in southern Kaneohe Bay is normally nitrogen limited. Following storm events, the high ratio of dissolved inorganic nitrogen to dissolved inorganic phosphorus (DIN:DIP, 25–29) fluxes of runoff nutrients drove bay waters towards phosphorus limitation. A depletion of phosphate relative to DIN in surface waters was observed following all storm events. Due to high flushing rates, recovery times of bay waters from storm perturbations ranged from 3 to 8 d and appeared to be correlated with tidal range. Storm inputs have a significant effect on the water column ecosystem and biogeochemistry in southern Kaneohe Bay. The perturbations were only transient events and the system rapidly recovered to prestorm conditions.     

Hydrodynamic Response of Northeastern Gulf of Mexico to Hurricanes

The northeastern Gulf of Mexico in the USA is extremely susceptible to the impacts of tropical cyclones because of its unique geometric and topographic features. Focusing on Hurricanes Ivan (2004) and Katrina (2005), this paper has addressed four scientific questions on this area’s response to hurricanes: (1) How does the shallow, abandoned Mississippi delta contribute to the storm surge? (2) What was the controlling factor that caused the record-high storm surge of Hurricane Katrina? (3) Why are the responses of an estuary to Hurricanes Ivan and Katrina so different from the corresponding surges on the open coast? (4) How would the storm surge differ if Hurricane Katrina had taken a different course? Guided by field observations of winds, waves, water levels, and currents, two state-of-the-art numerical models for storm surges and wind waves have been coupled to hindcast the relevant hydrodynamic conditions, including storm surges, surface waves, and depth-averaged currents. Fairly good agreement between the modeled and measured surge hydrographs was found. The quantitative numerical simulations and simple qualitative analysis have revealed that the record-high storm surge of Hurricane Katrina was caused by the interaction of the surge with the extremely shallow, ancient deltaic lobe of Mississippi River. A hypothetical scenario formed by shifting the path of Hurricane Katrina to the observed path of Hurricane Frederic (1979) resulted in a much smaller surge than that observed in coastal Mississippi and Louisiana. However, this scenario did still result in a high surge near the head of Mobile Bay. One of the important lessons learned from Hurricane Katrina is that the Saffir–Simpson scale should be systematically revised to reflect the topographic and geometric features of a complex, heterogeneous coast, including the possible surge amplification in an estuary or a submerged river delta.     

Passage of Tropical Storm Allison (2001) over southeast Texas recorded in δO values of Ostracoda

Freshwater Ostracoda collected in ephemeral pond-waters derived from Tropical Storm Allison (2001, Texas) recorded the unusually low oxygen-isotope values of that storm. Therefore, the potential clearly exists, in locations where tropical cyclones make landfall, to obtain a long-term record of tropical cyclone activity from fossil ostracode calcite.     

Evolution of Mid-Atlantic Coastal and Back-Barrier Estuary Environments in Response to a Hurricane: Implications for Barrier-Estuary Connectivity

Assessments of coupled barrier island-estuary storm response are rare. Hurricane Sandy made landfall during an investigation in Barnegat Bay-Little Egg Harbor estuary that included water quality monitoring, geomorphologic characterization, and numerical modeling; this provided an opportunity to characterize the storm response of the barrier island-estuary system. Barrier island morphologic response was characterized by significant changes in shoreline position, dune elevation, and beach volume; morphologic changes within the estuary were less dramatic with a net gain of only 200,000 m³ of sediment. When observed, estuarine deposition was adjacent to the back-barrier shoreline or collocated with maximum estuary depths. Estuarine sedimentologic changes correlated well with bed shear stresses derived from numerically simulated storm conditions, suggesting that change is linked to winnowing from elevated storm-related wave-current interactions rather than deposition. Rapid storm-related changes in estuarine water level, turbidity, and salinity were coincident with minima in island and estuarine widths, which may have influenced the location of two barrier island breaches. Barrier-estuary connectivity, or the transport of sediment from barrier island to estuary, was influenced by barrier island land use and width. Coupled assessments like this one provide critical information about storm-related coastal and estuarine sediment transport that may not be evident from investigations that consider only one component of the coastal system.     

Dynamic analysis of emergency inter-organizational communication network under public health emergency: a case study of COVID-19 in Hubei Province of China

Storm surge induced by hurricane is a major threat to the Gulf Coasts of the United States. A numerical modeling study was conducted to simulate the storm surge during Hurricane Michael, a category 5 hurricane that landed on the Florida Panhandle in 2018. A high-resolution model mesh was used in the ADCIRC hydrodynamic model to simulate storm surge and tides during the hurricane. Two parametric wind models, Holland 1980 model and Holland 2010 model, have been evaluated for their effects on the accuracy of storm surge modeling by comparing simulated and observed maximum water levels along the coast. The wind model parameters are determined by observed hurricane wind and pressure data. Results indicate that both Holland 1980 and Holland 2010 wind models produce reasonable accuracy in predicting maximum water level in Mexico Beach, with errors between 1 and 3.7%. Comparing to the observed peak water level of 4.74 m in Mexico Beach, Holland 1980 wind model with radius of 64-knot wind speed for parameter estimation results in the lowest error of 1%. For a given wind model, the wind profiles are also affected by the wind data used for parameter estimation. Away from hurricane eye wall, using radius of 64-knot wind speed for parameter estimation generally produces weaker wind than those using radius of 34-knot wind speed for parameter estimation. Comparing model simulated storm tides with 17 water marks observed along the coast, Holland 2010 wind model using radius of 34-knot wind speed for parameter estimation leads to the minimum mean absolute error. The results will provide a good reference for researchers to improve storm surge modeling. The validated model can be used to support coastal hazard mitigation planning.

     

An HWRF-based ensemble assessment of the land surface feedback on the post-landfall intensification of Tropical Storm Fay (2008)

While tropical cyclones (TCs) usually decay after landfall, Tropical Storm Fay (2008) initially developed a storm central eye over South Florida by anomalous intensification overland. Unique to the Florida peninsula are Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades, which may have provided a surface feedback as the TC tracked near these features around the time of peak intensity. Analysis is done with the use of an ensemble model-based approach with the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) version of the Hurricane WRF (HWRF) model using an outer domain and a storm-centered moving nest with 27- and 9-km grid spacing, respectively. Choice of land surface parameterization and small-scale surface features may influence TC structure, dictate the rate of TC decay, and even the anomalous intensification after landfall in model experiments. Results indicate that the HWRF model track and intensity forecasts are sensitive to three features in the model framework: land surface parameterization, initial boundary conditions, and the choice of planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. Land surface parameterizations such as the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Slab and Noah land surface models (LSMs) dominate the changes in storm track, while initial conditions and PBL schemes cause the largest changes in the TC intensity overland. Land surface heterogeneity in Florida from removing surface features in model simulations shows a small role in the forecast intensity change with no substantial alterations to TC track.     

Estuarine Phytoplankton Responses to Hurricanes and Tropical Storms with Different Characteristics (Trajectory,Rainfall, Winds)

We examined the short-term (<1 month post-storm) impact of storms [Tropical Storm (TS) Helene in 2000, Hurricane (H) Isabel in 2003, H Alex, Tropical Depression (TD) Bonnie and TS Charley in 2004] varying in their trajectory, wind and rainfall characteristics, on water column structure, nutrients, and phytoplankton biomass in North Carolina’s Neuse R. Estuary (NRE). Data are presented from two sampling programs, ModMon (biweekly) and FerryMon (measurements made every 3 min daily). Helene’s winds mixed the previously stratified water column, delivering sediment-bound nutrients to the euphotic zone, and localized freshwater input from Helene was also evident. Mean chlorophyll a concentrations in the mesohaline portion of the NRE, where N was strongly limiting before the storm (molar DIN:DIP < 1), more than doubled after the storm. Unlike with Helene, the water column was well mixed before passage of Isabel, and nutrient concentrations were high. As a result, minimal impact on phytoplankton biomass was detected despite Isabel’s high winds and significant freshwater input. In fact, conditions became less favorable for phytoplankton growth after the storm. Alex was fast moving and relatively small, but its winds were sufficient to mix the water column. Although data from ModMon suggest that chlorophyll a was only slightly higher after passage of Alex, FerryMon detected an ephemeral bloom that was missed by ModMon. Overall, these results suggest that relatively small tropical storms and hurricanes can lead to significant increases in phytoplankton biomass. However, the phytoplankton response depends on both the characteristics of a particular storm and the physical–chemical conditions of the water column before storm passage. Finally, the ephemeral bloom that developed as a result of Alex, the strong response of phytoplankton in the mesohaline portion of the estuary to nutrient inputs, and their patchiness on several other occasions suggests that storms may create “hot spots” for trophic transfer and biogeochemical dynamics in estuaries. Adaptive sampling is necessary to capture these features and to fully understand the impact of perturbations such as storms on estuarine ecosystem functioning.     

Storm Surge Hazard in Canada

Storm surges occur frequently in Canada mainlydue to extra-tropical cyclones (ETC'S) also referred to as winter storms. The hurricanes from the Gulf of Mexico can affect eastern Canada including Lakes Ontario and Erie regions, after they get modified and acquire some extra-tropical characteristics. Storm surges have occurred both on the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, in the Gulf of St.Lawrence, St.Lawrence Estuary, Bay of Fundy, Hudson Bay, James Bay, Northwest Passage, Beaufort Sea, the Great Lakes and other large lakes such as Lake Winnipeg.Squall lines which are embedded in the largerscale synoptic systems like the ETC'S could also generate storm surges (referred to as edge waves) in Lakes Huron, Erie and Ontario (edge waves are most prominent in Lake Michigan, but Canada has no territory touching this lake). The effect of climate change on storm surges in the Canadian water bodies could be two-fold. First, there may be some possible intensification of the weather systems and the associated wind fields resulting in bigger surges. Second, and probably even more relevant, is an east-west and north-south shift in the tracks of the weather systems, which could expose certain new areas to storm surge activity.A high priority for proper assessment of storm surge hazard is the production of maps showing inundation zones for storm surges that might occur in populated coastal areas. Such maps can be used to improve public awareness of tsunamis and for planning purposes (i.e., to reduce or avoid the risk).     

Simulation of water levels and extent of coastal inundation due to a cyclonic storm along the east coast of India

The devastation due to storm surge flooding caused by extreme wind waves generated by the cyclones is a severe apprehension along the coastal regions of India. In order to coexist with nature’s destructive forces in any vulnerable coastal areas, numerical ocean models are considered today as an essential tool to predict the sea level rise and associated inland extent of flooding that could be generated by a cyclonic storm crossing any coastal stretch. For this purpose, the advanced 2D depth-integrated (ADCIRC-2DDI) circulation model based on finite-element formulation is configured for the simulation of surges and water levels along the east coast of India. The model is integrated using wind stress forcing, representative of 1989, 1996, and 2000 cyclones, which crossed different parts of the east coast of India. Using the long-term inventory of cyclone database, synthesized tracks are deduced for vulnerable coastal districts of Tamil Nadu. Return periods are also computed for the intensity and frequency of cyclones for each coastal district. Considering the importance of Kalpakkam region, extreme water levels are computed based on a 50-year return period data, for the generation of storm surges, induced water levels, and extent of inland inundation. Based on experimental evidence, it is advocated that this region could be inundated/affected by a storm with a threshold pressure drop of 66 hpa. Also it is noticed that the horizontal extent of inland inundation ranges between 1 and 1.5 km associated with the peak surge. Another severe cyclonic storm in Tamil Nadu (November 2000 cyclone), which made landfall approximately 20 km south of Cuddalore, has been chosen to simulate surges and water levels. Two severe cyclonic storms that hit Andhra coast during 1989 and 1996, which made landfall near Kavali and Kakinada, respectively, are also considered and computed run-up heights and associated water levels. The simulations exhibit a good agreement with available observations from the different sources on storm surges and associated inundation caused by these respective storms. It is believed that this study would help the coastal authorities to develop a short- and long-term disaster management, mitigation plan, and emergency response in the event of storm surge flooding.     

Spatial and Seasonal Patterns of Salinity in a Large and Shallow Tropical Estuary of the Western Caribbean

Salinity profiles and meteorological data were analyzed during February, May, and September 2006 in Chetumal Bay, a large, shallow estuary of the Western Caribbean. Local meteorological conditions revealed three seasons: (1) a dry season (March–May); (2) a wet season (June–October); and (3) the nortes season, with northerly wind events (October–February). During the nortes and wet seasons, salinity ranged between 13 and 16 psu, and salinity was highest in the dry season, ranging between 18 and 22 psu over most of the area; a strong stratification and a significant contribution of salty water characterized this season. Strong horizontal gradients were observed near Rio Hondo during the three seasons. Deep and narrow peculiar bathymetric features called the pozas showed a strong stratification and a relatively high salinity. The northern part of Chetumal Bay and probably the entire system are far from being homogeneous.     

Hurricane Gilbert: The storm of the century

Hurricane Gilbert has been labelled the storm of the century because of the many meteorological records it set. These include size, straightness of track, atmospheric pressure, precipitation, and total energy. After ravaging Jamaica as a Force 3 storm, Gilbert made landfall in Yucatan as a Force 5, one of only three hurricanes of such magnitude to do so in North America this century. In spite of a death toll of 318 and property damage in the billions of dollars, Gilbert's impacts were eclipsed by the extensive publicity that accompanied Hurricane Hugo's landfall in South Carolina the following year (1989).