A GIS model for settlement suitability regarding disaster mitigation, a case study in Bolu Turkey

A GIS (Geographic Information Systems) model was developed for Bolu Province in Turkey primarily for earthquake disaster mitigation purposes. The model served as the basis for investigating earthquake disaster vulnerability of existing settlements and identifying areas for new settlements in the Bolu Provincial Center and its counties. The set of criteria investigated in the GIS model was the following: distance from the main fault, ground acceleration, geologic basement type and terrain slope. Based on these criteria, a settlement suitability map was created, which classified the province into low, medium and high settlement suitable areas. This map was then augmented with other criteria for refinement purposes. These included the land use capability classes map of the province, the contemporary land use map derived from satellite images and the historical and contemporary earthquake occurrences within the region. Finally, the road network of the province derived from satellite images was overlaid on the settlement suitability map so that the provincial administrators could leave an evacuation zone of 200 m around the roads. This settlement suitability map is also intended to assist provincial administrators in making plans for reinforcement of existing settlements in low settlement suitable regions and opening new areas for urbanization and industrialization in high settlement suitable regions.     

Engineering-geological model of the Segura River flood plain (SE Spain): a case study for engineering planning

This article presents a sedimentological and geotechnical study of the surficial sediments in the Segura River valley (SE Spain). We formulate an engineering-geological model consisting of four zones, each characterized by its geotechnical properties and by various geotechnical problems (namely low bearing capacity, significant ground settlement and liquefaction of sandy sediments). The model quantifies the geotechnical properties and potential problems in each zone. It serves as a useful tool for preliminary geotechnical investigations. The model also enables a better design of field surveys as well as optimal selection of geotechnical investigation techniques for future civil engineering works.     

Probabilistic macroseismic hazard assessment for Nicaragua (preliminary results)

A probabilistic macroseismic hazard assessment has been done for Nicaragua. For this, the most complete catalogue for Central America, compiled by NORSAR in Norway has been used. In this catalogue, empirical intensity attenuation relations were found. Using these empirical relations, magnitudes were changed to epicentral intensities expected in sites where no intensities had been reported. The calculated intensities from a polygon surrounding Nicaragua were used to assess the macroseismic hazard in the region. For the whole polygon, the cumulative intensity frequency was calculated resulting in a b-value of 0.60 for an intensity interval of V–IX. The time completeness was also studied indicating that, for strong events causing higher intensities (I ₀ VII), the catalogue is complete for events that have been recorded since 1840. The whole polygon was cut into independent seismotectonic regions where the statistical procedure (intensity frequency and time completeness) was done.     

基于GIS和CF-Logistic回归模型地质灾害易发性评价：以青海湟中县为例

研究地质灾害易发性的评价方法,对地质灾害防治有着非常重要的现实意义。本文以青海省西宁市湟中县为研究区域,选取高程、坡度、坡向、地形起伏度、距河流距离、距断层距离和工程岩组7个评价因子,利用确定性系数与逻辑回归模型相结合的方法计算出每个单元格地质灾害发生的概率。同时利用ROC曲线和AUC值对模型分类精度进行验证,最终得到AUC值为0.863,说明该方法对湟中县地质灾害易发性评价具有较强的适用性和客观性。本文研究表明,高层、坡向、距河流距离和工程岩组4个因子对研究区地质灾害的影响最为显著。从地质灾害的空间分布来看,该方法计算结果表明极高、高易发区主要分布在湟水河及其干流两侧低山丘陵地区,低易发区主要分布在研究区北部和西南地区。从评价因子的角度分析,高易发区主要分布在离河流500 m的松散冲洪积岩层和软弱层状碎屑岩岩层上。以上研究结果表明,基于CF-Logistic回归模型对研究区地质灾害易发性评价有较强的参考价值,能为研究区地质灾害的防治工作提供理论依据及方法。

     

Environmental hazard analysis of a gypsum karst depression area with geophysical methods: a case study in Sivas (Turkey)

Because the mixture of seawater and freshwater in the Gyeongin-Ara Waterway in South Korea can lead to the intrusion of saline water into surrounding aquifers, systematic management through the establishment of a groundwater protection area is required. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model is used to delineate this protection area based on two primary factors and five secondary factors related to saline water intrusion. The study area is divided into 987 gridded cells with a unit size of 100 × 100 m, and the final evaluation score for each cell is calculated using the AHP model. Consequently, several artificial neural network models based on a multilayer perceptron are developed using the AHP’s secondary criteria and the evaluation score. Comparing the evaluation scores of ANN and AHP, more than 180 samples are required in the ANN model to insure high R2 between the original and estimated values. The ANN model is more consistent than the AHP model when determining groundwater protection area, because it can be re-constructed due to the changes in some secondary criteria and also changed due to a standardization process. The final evaluation score by the ANN model based on 300 samples, with the highest R2, is calculated and the regions with a score higher than 2.0 are selected as the groundwater protection area, accounting for 15% of the total cells. This area is similar to the range within approximately 200 m of the GA Waterway and also includes some changing sites in hydrogeochemistry and electric conductivity, which is produced by saline water intrusion. If the land-use type, groundwater levels, and some other criteria change at any cell, the ANN model can be re-executed to verify whether the cell belongs to a groundwater protection area. Considering that salinity of groundwater near the waterway can be affected by various factors including well depth, pumping conditions, and groundwater levels, the ANN model, which is a non-linear model, can be more effective for prediction than the AHP model.     

Seismic risk assessment of buildings in urban areas: a case study for Denizli,Turkey

This study aims to carry out a seismic risk assessment for a typical mid-size city based on building inventory from a field study. Contributions were made to existing loss estimation methods for buildings. In particular, a procedure was introduced to estimate the seismic quality of buildings using a scoring scheme for the effective parameters in seismic behavior. Denizli, a typical mid-size city in Turkey, was used as a case study. The building inventory was conducted by trained observers in a selected region of Denizli that had the potential to be damaged from expected future earthquakes according to geological and geotechnical studies. Parameters that are known to have some effect on the seismic performance of the buildings during past earthquakes were collected during the inventory studies. The inventory includes data of about 3,466 buildings on 4,226 parcels. The evaluation of inventory data provided information about the distribution of building stock according to structural system, construction year, and vertical and plan irregularities. The inventory data and the proposed procedure were used to assess the building damage, and to determine casualty and shelter needs during the M6.3 and 7.0 scenario earthquakes, representing the most probable and maximum earthquakes in Denizli, respectively. The damage assessment and loss studies showed that significant casualties and economic losses can be expected in future earthquakes. Seismic risk assessment of reinforced concrete buildings also revealed the priorities among building groups. The vulnerability in decreasing order is: (1) buildings with 6 or more stories, (2) pre-1975 constructed buildings, and (3) buildings with 3–5 stories. The future studies for evaluating and reducing seismic risk for buildings should follow this priority order. All data of inventory, damage, and loss estimates were assembled in a Geographical Information System (GIS) database.     

Prediction of earthquake hazard by hidden Markov model (around Bilecik,NW Turkey)

Earthquakes are one of the most important natural hazards to be evaluated carefully in engineering projects, due to the severely damaging effects on human-life and human-made structures. The hazard of an earthquake is defined by several approaches and consequently earthquake parameters such as peak ground acceleration occurring on the focused area can be determined. In an earthquake prone area, the identification of the seismicity patterns is an important task to assess the seismic activities and evaluate the risk of damage and loss along with an earthquake occurrence. As a powerful and flexible framework to characterize the temporal seismicity changes and reveal unexpected patterns, Poisson hidden Markov model provides a better understanding of the nature of earthquakes. In this paper, Poisson hidden Markov model is used to predict the earthquake hazard in Bilecik (NW Turkey) as a result of its important geographic location. Bilecik is in close proximity to the North Anatolian Fault Zone and situated between Ankara and Istanbul, the two biggest cites of Turkey. Consequently, there are major highways, railroads and many engineering structures are being constructed in this area. The annual frequencies of earthquakes occurred within a radius of 100 km area centered on Bilecik, from January 1900 to December 2012, with magnitudes (M) at least 4.0 are modeled by using Poisson-HMM. The hazards for the next 35 years from 2013 to 2047 around the area are obtained from the model by forecasting the annual frequencies of M ≥ 4 earthquakes.     

Stabilization of swelling clays by Mg(OH)2. Factors affecting hydroxy-Mg-interlayering in swelling clays

The damage caused to structures and other human endeavours, on or in the ground, by swelling clay soils is considered as a natural hazard. In order to mitigate this hazard an attempt was made to stabilize the swelling clay mineral structure by the addition of Mg(OH)₂. This will turn the swelling minerals, like montmorillonite, into non-swelling ones, e.g., chloride. Accordingly, the various factors affecting the precipitation-adsorption of the Mg-hydroxide by clays, was investigated, and the conditions giving the best results were established. The factors examined were: the base used as precipitant (NH₄OH and NaOH); the preparation of the precipitate, inside or outside the clay suspension; the sequence and the duration of the reagents addition; the OH/Mg ratio; the time of clay-chemical contact; and the drying time and temperature. The method, was applied to different clay minerals (swelling and non-swelling). The material produced after the Mg-hydroxide precipitation was examined by the methylene blue dye adsorption test, XRD, DTA and DTGA methods; the results were treated statistically by factorial analysis. From the results obtained, it is concluded that the factors affecting the Mg-hydroxide adsorption by clays are: the base used as a precipitant, the preparation of the hydroxide directly inside or outside the clay suspension, the drying temperature, and the rate of titration of the reagents. Therefore, the best conditions for the laboratory preparation of hydroxy-Mg-interlayers are a dilute (1–2%) and well-dispersed clay suspension, pH between 10–12; some 12 meq Mg²⁺, as Mg-salt (e.g., MgCl₂) per gram of clay, added before the base and followed by the dropwise titration of 1–2 N NaOH solution into the clay suspension, to give a molar ratio OH/Mg of about 1.5; vigorous agitation of the suspension during titration of the reagents; centrifugation and decantation of the supernatant liquid, and drying the product at about 250°C. Satisfactory results are also obtained with the fast titration of the base and drying at 105°C to complete dryness.     

Assessment of potential seismic hazard and site effect in Antakya (Hatay Province), SE Turkey

Antakya city is at risk because of strong earthquakes occurring in the area, and different soil conditions that can produce variation of the ground motion amplification. Microzonation of cities provides a basis for site-specific hazard analysis in urban settlements. In particular, seismic microzonation can be provided by means of detailed seismic assessment of the area, including earthquake recordings and geological studies. In this paper, we propose a preliminary microzonation map for the city of Antakya, based on the variation of the dominant periods and shear velocities of the sediments covering the area. The periods are retrieved from microtremor measurements conducted at 69 sites, using the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio technique. The results of microtremor analysis were compared with data obtained from refraction microtremor (ReMi) measurements at four profiles crossing the studied area. According to the classification of dominant periods, Antakya city can be divided into five zones, probably prone to different levels of seismic hazard. The shorter natural periods are in inner Antakya and both the sides of Asi River (i.e., northern and southern parts). The eastern and western parts of Antakya have maximum dominant periods. The V _s ³⁰ values were calculated by using the ReMi method along the profiles. Antakya city has V _s ³⁰ values in the range of category C of the national earthquake hazard reduction programme site classification.     

Assessment of aquifer vulnerability based on GIS and DRASTIC methods: a case study of the Senirkent-Uluborlu Basin (Isparta, Turkey)

Aquifer vulnerability has been assessed in the Senirkent-Uluborlu Basin within the Egirdir Lake catchment (Turkey) using the DRASTIC method, based on a geographic information system (GIS). There is widespread agriculture in the basin, and fertilizer (nitrate) and pesticide applications have caused groundwater contamination as a result of leaching. According to hydrogeological data from the study area, surface water and groundwater flow are towards Egirdir Lake. Hence, aquifer vulnerability in the basin should be determined by water quality in Egirdir Lake. DRASTIC layers were prepared using data such as rainfall, groundwater level, aquifer type, and hydraulic conductivity. These data were obtained from hydrogeological investigations and literature. A regional-scale aquifer-vulnerability map of the basin was prepared using overlay analysis with the aid of GIS. A DRASTIC vulnerability map, verified by nitrate in groundwater data, shows that the defined areas are compatible with land-use data. It is concluded that 20.8% of the basin area is highly vulnerable and urgent pollution-preventions measures should be taken for every kind of relevant activity within the whole basin.     

An integration of GIS and remote sensing in groundwater investigations: A case study in Burdur, Turkey

The importance of groundwater is growing based on an increasing need and decreasing spring discharges in the Burdur area. Remote Sensing and the Geographic Information System (GIS) have been used for investigation of springs, which are an important groundwater source. The chemical composition of groundwater is not of drinking water quality in Burdur city and water in the Burdur residential area is being obtained from the Cine plain.The purpose of this study was to investigate new water sources by using remote sensing and GIS methods. Geology, lineament and land use maps of the research area were prepared using the Landsat TM satellite image composed of different analyses on the TM 7–4-1 band. In addition, contours, creeks, roads and springs were digitized using a topographic map of 1/100,000 scale to produce a drainage density map. A groundwater potential map was produced which integrated thematic maps, such as annual rainfall, geology, lineament density, land use, topography, slope and drainage density. According to this investigation, the surrounding villages of Askeriye, Bugduz, Gelincik, Taskap and Kayaalt were determined to be important from the point of view of groundwater potential in the research area.     

中国海域灾害地质区划初步探讨

基于对现有调查研究成果资料的分析和认识,本文探讨了海洋灾害地质区划的原则,首次提出了我国全海域的海洋灾害地质区划方案,按大型构造地貌界线作为一级灾害地质分区,划分为海岸带、陆架、陆坡(岛坡)、海盆与海槽4个灾害地质区,然后根据地理位置及灾害地质环境特征划分出24个灾害地质亚区。此外,从灾害致灾因子和孕灾环境角度出发,定性的将中国海域的地质灾害风险(危险性)划分为4级,在24个灾害地质亚区中,较高风险区11个,约占近总数的一半;其次是较低风险区7个,占近三分之一;高风险区、低风险区分别仅4个、2个。     

Environmental geological assessment of a solid waste disposal site: a case study in Sivas, Turkey

The selection of the disposal site is probably the most important step in the development of solid waste management. In site selection, geology plays a determining role. This study evaluates the characteristics of the environment on the basis of the geological, hydrogeological and geo-engineering properties of the solid waste site of the Sivas city, Turkey. The area is underlain by the Oligocene-Miocene rocks which have limited aquifer properties. Thin Quaternary alluvium and soil cover overlie the Oligo-Miocene rocks, which are represented as well graded sand and inorganic silt of low plasticity. The Quaternary alluvium and soil cover are classified as inorganic clays having a low plasticity and the permeability varies from 1.2×10⁻⁶ to 3.11×10⁻⁶ m/s. These values are much higher than 1×10⁻⁸ m/s, which is accepted for waste disposal standards. Seepage waters have a potential to pollute the ground water and the Kızılırmak River, which is 500 m to the southwest of the waste disposal area and because the disposal site is close to the river, the potential for flash flooding poses a high pollution risk. The waste disposal area must be covered by clay layers or an impervious artificial membrane. In addition, seepage must be controlled and removed from the site.     

An assessment of environmental impacts of quarry-blasting operation: a case study in Istanbul, Turkey

This study evaluates the impacts resulting from quarry-blasting operation on nearby buildings and structures as it generates ground vibration, air blast, and fly rocks. In this paper, first blasting operation and its possible environmental effects are defined. Then the methods of blast-vibration prediction and commonly accepted criteria to prevent damage were introduced. A field experimental work was conducted to minimize the vibration effects at Saribayir quarry as it is an identical case for the many quarries situated in and around Istanbul, Turkey. Although the local surrounding geology and rock mechanics have great influence on vibrations as uncontrollable parameter, the charge weight per delay, delay period, geometric parameters of the blasts were changed to solve the existing vibration problem in the studied quarry. To obtain a realistic result, 10 blasts were carried out and 30 seismic records were made in different places mainly very close the buildings and the other vulnerable structures around the quarry. The evaluation is performed whether the vibration level are within safe limits or not. The prediction equation based on scaled distance concept is also determined, however, it is a site-specific model and need to be updated when the quarry advances. The safe blast parameters which minimize the environmental effect were determined for the Saribayir quarry.     

Qualitative hazard and risk assessment of landslides: a practical framework for a case study in China

Natural Hazards - Landslides are presented in various types; some of which are unique or completely different from those in other countries due to geological conditions in China. Baoji City in...     

Rockfall hazard analysis for an historical Castle in Kastamonu (Turkey)

The Kastamonu Castle located on a sandstone hill with Eocene age is one of the most historical and touristic places in Kastamonu city center. The settlement of the city expanded towards the hill of the Kastamonu Castle and adversely affected by rockfalls in the past. The rockfall problems around the castle could be related to jointing, weathering, freezing-thawing and earthquake effects or a combination. In this study, the rockfall hazard at the castle is evaluated by two-dimensional rockfall analyses along 17 profiles selected in different orientations. Different size of rock blocks and various types of movements are taken into consideration in the analyses. Fall-out distance, bounce height, kinetic energy and velocity of the sandstone blocks are separately evaluated. The obtained data are used to define the possible rockfall hazard zones. Finally, the areas having potential rockfall risks are distinguished. Based on the evaluation of the data, rock bolting after removing of unstable blocks and supporting the area with the protective fences are suggested.     

Quantitative sinkhole hazard assessment. A case study from the Ebro Valley evaporite alluvial karst (NE Spain)

Quantitative sinkhole hazard assessments in karst areas allow calculation of the potential sinkhole risk and the performance of cost-benefit analyses. These estimations are of practical interest for planning, engineering, and insurance purposes. The sinkhole hazard assessments should include two components: the probability of occurrence of sinkholes (sinkholes/km² year) and the severity of the sinkholes, which mainly refers to the subsidence mechanisms (progressive passive bending or catastrophic collapse) and the size of the sinkholes at the time of formation; a critical engineering design parameter. This requires the compilation of an exhaustive database on recent sinkholes, including information on the: (1) location, (2) chronology (precise date or age range), (3) size, and (4) subsidence mechanisms and rate. This work presents a hazard assessment from an alluvial evaporite karst area (0.81 km²) located in the periphery of the city of Zaragoza (Ebro River valley, NE Spain). Five sinkholes and four locations with features attributable to karstic subsidence where identified in an initial investigation phase providing a preliminary probability of occurrence of 0.14 sinkholes/km² year (11.34% in annual probability). A trenching program conducted in a subsequent investigation phase allowed us to rule out the four probable sinkholes, reducing the probability of occurrence to 0.079 sinkholes/km² year (6.4% in annual probability). The information on the severity indicates that collapse sinkholes 10–15 m in diameter may occur in the area. A detailed study of the deposits and deformational structures exposed by trenching in one of the sinkholes allowed us to infer a modern collapse sinkhole approximately 12 m in diameter and with a vertical throw of 8 m. This collapse structure is superimposed on a subsidence sinkhole around 80 m across that records at least 1.7 m of synsedimentary subsidence. Trenching, in combination with dating techniques, is proposed as a useful methodology to elucidate the origin of depressions with uncertain diagnosis and to gather practical information with predictive utility about particular sinkholes in alluvial karst settings: precise location, subsidence mechanisms and magnitude, and timing and rate of the subsidence episodes.     

Quality assessment of armourstone for a rubble mound breakwater (Sinop, Turkey)

Helald is a fishing town in the central Black Sea region where construction of a rubble mound breakwater is being planned. The construction of the breakwater requires good quality durable armourstone. Several laboratory tests are performed for the quality assessment of the two potential armourstone, namely, limestone and sandstone. The quality evaluation of the stones is done on the basis of CIRIA/CUR criteria, saturation coefficient, wet-to-dry strength ratio, and the rock durability index. The quality evaluations are then compared with the field performance of both rocks. Laboratory test results, durability assessments and field performance of the rocks indicate that the limestone is a good quality armourstone and it can be used for the breakwater construction. However, the sandstone is marginal to poor material with very poor field performance, and should not be used for the breakwater construction.