Can we learn from the past? Towards better analogies and historical inference in society-environmental change research

In light of the challenges posed by contemporary environmental changes, interest in past environmental impacts and societies’ responses to them is burgeoning. The main strength of such research lies in its ability to analyze completed society-environment interactions. Scholars have argued that such analyses can improve our understanding of present challenges and offer useful lessons to guide adaptation responses. Yet despite considerable differences between past and present societies, our inherently limited knowledge of the past and our changing understanding of it, much of this research uses historical antecedents uncritically, assuming that past societal impacts and responses are directly analogous to contemporary ones. We argue that this approach is unsound both methodologically and theoretically, thus drawing insights that might offer an erroneous course of action.To illustrate the challenges in drawing historical analogies, we outline several fundamental differences between past and present societies as well as broader limitations of historical research. Based on these points, we argue that scholars who apply historical inference in their work should do so critically, while reflecting on the objectives of learning from the past and the limitations of this process. We suggest a number of ways to improve past-present analogies, such as defining more explicitly what we can learn from the past, clarifying the rationale for using the analogy, and reducing the number of variables compared between past and present.     

Individual contribution of insolation and CO2 to the interglacial climates of the past 800,000?years

The individual contributions of insolation and greenhouse gases (GHG) to the interglacial climates of the past 800,000?years are quantified through simulations with a model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM and using the factor separation technique. The interglacials are compared in terms of their forcings and responses of surface air temperature, vegetation and sea ice. The results show that the relative magnitude of the simulated interglacials is in reasonable agreement with proxy data. GHG plays a dominant role on the variations of the annual mean temperature of both the Globe and the southern high latitudes, whereas, insolation plays a dominant role on the variations of tree fraction, precipitation and of the northern high latitude temperature and sea ice. The Mid-Brunhes Event (MBE) appears to be significant only in GHG and climate variables dominated by it. The results also show that the relative importance of GHG and insolation on the warmth intensity varies from one interglacial to another. For the warmest (MIS-9 and MIS-5) and coolest (MIS-17 and MIS-13) interglacials, GHG and insolation reinforce each other. MIS-11 (MIS-15) is a warm (cool) interglacial due to its high (low) GHG concentration, its insolation contributing to a cooling (warming). MIS-7, although with high GHG concentrations, can not be classified as a warm interglacial due to it large insolation-induced cooling. Related to these two forcings, MIS-19 appears to be the best analogue for MIS-1. In the response to insolation, the annual mean temperatures averaged over the globe and over southern high latitudes are highly linearly correlated with obliquity. However, precession becomes important in the temperature of the northern high latitudes and controls the tree fraction globally. Over the polar oceans, the response during the local winters, although the available energy is small, is larger than during the local summers due to the summer remnant effect. The sensitivity to double CO₂ is the highest for the coolest interglacial.     

Spinning in circles? A systematic review on the role of theory in social vulnerability,resilience and adaptation research

An increasing number of publications focus on social vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation (SVRA) towards natural hazards and climate change. Despite this proliferation of research, a systematic understanding of how these studies are theoretically grounded is lacking. Here, we systematically reviewed 4432 articles that address SVRA in various disciplinary fields (e.g. psychology, sociology, geography, mathematics) for various hazards, including floods, droughts, landslides, storm surges, wildfires, tsunamis, earthquakes, and volcano eruptions. We focus on the extent to which these studies explicate the frameworks, theoretical constructs or theories they rely on. Surprisingly, we found that about 90% of the reviewed studies do not explicitly refer to a theoretical underpinning. Overall, theories focusing on individuals’ SVRA were more frequently used than those focusing on systems, society, groups, and networks. Moreover, the uptake of theories varied according to the hazard investigated and field of knowledge, being more frequent in wildfire and flood studies and articles published in social science journals. Based on our analysis, we propose a reflexive handling of theories to foster more transparent, comparable, and robust empirical research on SVRA.     

In government we trust? Micro-business adaptation to climate change in four post-colonial and transitional economies of China

Public expectations of government influence private action for managing climate change risks. Institutional neglect or incompetence result in a loss of trust in public institutions, consequently discouraging the public from taking added responsibility for risk management. This has been explained in terms of social contract, but evidence suggests that a politics of distrust can reinforce alternative social drivers of action, rather than displacing action. This is empirically confirmed by the present study, which examines the tendencies for adopting private protective measures across a gradient of institutional trust. Surveys were conducted in four jurisdictions within China that operate under two different political-economic systems, namely, Hong Kong and Macao (liberal market economy), and Zhuhai and Sanya (socialist market economy). Structured interviews were conducted with 569 business operators to explore how their stated adaptation practice is related to institutional trust and social capital. We found that trust predicted action only in Sanya, which is characterized by a high level of public confidence in authorities. In places of lower institutional trust, social capital became a salient and powerful driver of action. The weakening of the social contracts in Hong Kong and Macao turned their people to alternative social mechanisms. We explain the results in terms of the development trajectories, socio-political norms and institutional settings of these jurisdictions. This study provides insights into how adaptation practice can be mediated by the consequences of a change in political leadership, policy, or governance arrangements that alters the relationship of trust.     

Ten years to prevent catastrophe?: Discourses of climate change and international development in the UK press

The science of climate change is full of uncertainty, but the greater vulnerability of poor countries to the impacts of climate change is one aspect that is widely acknowledged. This paper adapts Dryzek's ‘components’ approach to discourse analysis to explore the media construction of climate change and development in UK ‘quality’ newspapers between 1997 and 2007. Eight discourses are identified from more than 150 articles, based on the entities recognised, assumptions about natural relationships, agents and their motives, rhetorical devices and normative judgements. They show a wide range of opinions regarding the impacts of climate change on development and the appropriate action to be taken. Discourses concerned with likely severe impacts have dominated coverage in the Guardian and the Independent since 1997, and in all four papers since 2006. Previously discourses proposing that climate change was a low development priority had formed the coverage in the Times and the Telegraph. The classification of different discourses allows an inductive, nuanced analysis of the factors influencing representation of climate change and development issues; an analysis which highlights the role of key events, individual actors, newspaper ideology and wider social and political factors. Overall the findings demonstrate media perceptions of a rising sense of an impending catastrophe for the developing world that is defenceless without the help of the West, perpetuating to an extent views of the poor as victims.     

Lost in the mix: will the technologies of carbon dioxide capture and storage provide us with a breathing space as we strive to make the transition from fossil fuels to renewables?

This paper explores concepts of carbon lock-in arising from the technologies of CO₂ capture and storage (CCS). We examine the argument that CCS reduces carbon lock-in and the calls for a CCS ‘mandate’ and emission performance standards. We analyse the pros- and cons- of a low-carbon fossil fuel lock-in, arguing that lock-in per se is not the problem; it is rather the depth of lock-in which creates problems because deeper lock-in reduces flexibility and increases the ‘error cost’ (i.e. the cost of a decision which turns out to be based on incorrect understanding) and should be avoided. A set of technical and institutional indicators for measuring the flexibility of different technologies is then presented and applied to three technologies: a landfill gas power generator, a conventional nuclear power plant and a CCS plant under development in California. We conclude that these indicators are a useful way forward in assessing individual projects and that public authorities and other stakeholders might wish to employ some version of these indicators in their deliberations on the role of CCS.     

Climate change response in Europe: what’s the reality? Analysis of adaptation and mitigation plans from 200 urban areas in 11 countries

Urban areas are pivotal to global adaptation and mitigation efforts. But how do cities actually perform in terms of climate change response? This study sheds light on the state of urban climate change adaptation and mitigation planning across Europe. Europe is an excellent test case given its advanced environmental policies and high urbanization. We performed a detailed analysis of 200 large and medium-sized cities across 11 European countries and analysed the cities’ climate change adaptation and mitigation plans. We investigate the regional distribution of plans, adaptation and mitigation foci and the extent to which planned greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions contribute to national and international climate objectives. To our knowledge, it is the first study of its kind as it does not rely on self-assessment (questionnaires or social surveys). Our results show that 35 % of European cities studied have no dedicated mitigation plan and 72 % have no adaptation plan. No city has an adaptation plan without a mitigation plan. One quarter of the cities have both an adaptation and a mitigation plan and set quantitative GHG reduction targets, but those vary extensively in scope and ambition. Furthermore, we show that if the planned actions within cities are nationally representative the 11 countries investigated would achieve a 37 % reduction in GHG emissions by 2050, translating into a 27 % reduction in GHG emissions for the EU as a whole. However, the actions would often be insufficient to reach national targets and fall short of the 80 % reduction in GHG emissions recommended to avoid global mean temperature rising by 2 °C above pre-industrial levels.     

The Relationship between the El Ni ?no/La Ni ?na Cycle and the Transition Chains of Four Atmospheric Oscillations. Part II: The Relationship and a New Approach to the Prediction of El Ni ?no

ABSTRACT The authors explored the connection and transition chains of the Northern Oscillation （NO） and the North Pacific Oscilla tion （NPO）, the Southern Oscillation （SO）, and the Antarctic Oscillation （AAO） on the interannual timescale in a companion paper. In this study, the connection between the transition chains of the four oscillations （the NO and NPO, the SO and AAO） and the El Nifio/La Nifia cycle were examined. It was found that during the transitions of the four oscillations, alternate anticyclonic/cyclonic correlation centers propagated from the Western Pacific to the Eastern Pacific along both sides of the equator. Between the anticyclonic/cyclonic correlation centers, the zonal wind anomalies also moved eastwardly, favoring the advection of sea surface temperature anomalies from the tropical Western Pacific to the Eastern Pacific. When the anti cyclonic anomalies arrived in the Eastern Pacific, the positive phase of NO/SO and La Nifia were established and vice versa. Thus, in 4-6 years, with an entire transition chain of the four oscillations, an E1 Nifio/La Nifia cycle completed. The eastward propagation of the covarying anomalies of the sea level pressure, zonal wind, and sea surface temperature was critical to the transition chains of the four oscillations and the cycle of E1 Nifio/La Nifia. Based on their close link, a new empirical prediction method of the timing of E1 Nifio by the transition chains of the four oscillations was proposed. The assessment provided confidence in the ability of the new method to supply information regarding the long-term variations of the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific.     

Is adjustment of breeding phenology keeping pace with the need for change? Linking observed response in woodland birds to changes in temperature and selection pressure

Despite the recent plethora of studies investigating biotic implications of climate change, most research has been undertaken without the need for change being quantified. Failure to link observed responses to selection pressure is a fundamental omission because whether change is appropriate cannot then be determined. We use almost 7,000 records to analyse long-term (1974–2004) changes in breeding phenology for six co-occurring woodland birds at a site with significantly increasing spring temperatures. We link observed change to changes in selection for early laying (calculated using differential breeding success as the season progresses) to determine whether change is: (1) necessary, (2) appropriate, and (3) sufficient. Three (resident) species—blue tit, great tit, and nuthatch—started clutches significantly earlier over time without selection for early laying becoming stronger over the same period. This suggests that observed advancements are appropriate, and sufficient, to track climate change. For another species—coal tit—there was no change in lay date, and although there was always selection to lay early, selection intensity did not change over time. For this, the earliest-laying species, bet-hedging to prevent maladaptation (laying too early) or stabilising selection may be acting to maintain phenological inertia, even when phenological change could be adaptive. For the final two (migratory) species—pied flycatcher and redstart—there was no temporal change in lay date, despite selection for early laying becoming significantly stronger over time. This study indicates that some species are tracking climate change successfully while ecologically-similar species, at the same study site, are failing to do so.