Scenario-based earthquake loss estimation for the city of Cairo,Egypt

This paper describes a multi-tiered loss assessment methodology to estimate seismic monetary implications resulting from structural damage to the building population in Greater Cairo. After outlining a ground-shaking model, data on geological structures and surface soil conditions are collated using a considerable number of boreholes to produce a classification of different soil deposits. An inventory database for the existing building stock is also prepared. The seismic vulnerability of representative reinforced concrete building models, designed according to prevalent codes and construction practices, is evaluated. Capacity spectrum methods are utilised for assessing the structural performance through a multi-level damage scale. A simplified methodology for deriving fragility curves for non-ductile reinforced concrete building classes that typically constitute the building population of the city is adopted. In addition, suitable fragility functions for unreinforced masonry constructions are selected and used for completing the loss model for the study area. The results are finally used to build an event-based loss model caused by possible earthquakes in the region.     

Empirical-based seismically induced slope displacements in a geographic information system environment: a case study

Landslides are one of the most damaging and threatening hazards associated with seismically induced slope movements. Estimations of support conditions for slope displacements are important for taking preventive measures to avoid landslide events in future. California's Division of Mines and Geology (DMG) procedure is utilised in the present paper for estimating the slope failure mechanism under seismic conditions. In this study, the DMG procedure has been explained and has also been incorporated in a Geographic Information System (GIS) using Arc-GIS software from Environmental Systems Research Institute. Further, it is utilised for establishing a seismically induced slope displacement map for the Skien municipality area of Telemark County in Norway. The motivation for selecting this site was the availability of geotechnical parameters for the site. Three different displacement maps have been produced for earthquake scenarios of magnitude 5, 6 and 7, respectively. The maximum displacement of 133 cm is estimated for earthquake scenario of magnitude 7. It is noticed that the sensitive areas for slope failure remain the same under different earthquake scenarios. A displacement tool based on the DMG procedure has been created in the Arc-tool box in Arc-GIS software. This tool minimises the efforts for inserting formulas for making raster displacement maps. By using the displacement tool one can generate final products like displacement maps automatically at high accuracy and in quick time. The prepared slope displacement maps of study area are used for landslide susceptibility zonation (LSZ) map preparation. The LSZ maps are useful for landslide hazard assessment and further can be utilised by planners, civil engineers and local administrators for town planning and policy-making.     

Recalibration of mutually consistent garnet–biotite and garnet–cordierite geothermometers

Garnet–biotite and garnet–cordierite geothermometers have been consistently calibrated, using the results of Fe²⁺–Mg cation exchange experiments and utilizing recently evaluated nonideal mixing properties of garnet. Nonideal mixing parameters of biotite (including Fe, Mg, Al^VI, and Ti) and of cordierite (involving Fe and Mg) are evaluated in terms of iterative multiple least-square regressions of the experimental results. Assuming the presence of ferric Fe in biotite in relation to the coexisting Fe-oxide phases (Case A), and assuming the absence of ferric Fe in biotite (Case B), two formulae of garnet–biotite thermometer have been derived. The garnet–cordierite geothermometer was constructed using Margules parameters of garnet adopted in the garnet–biotite geothermometers. The newly calibrated garnet–biotite and garnet–cordierite thermometers clearly show improved conformity in the calculated temperatures. The thermometers give temperatures that are consistent with each other using natural garnet–biotite–cordierite assemblages within ±50 °C. The effects of ferric Fe in biotite on garnet–biotite thermometry have been evaluated comparing the two calibrations of the thermometer. The effects are significant; it is clarified that taking ferric Fe content in biotite into account leads to less dispersion of thermometric results.     

An improved method for delineating source protection zones for karst springs based on analysis of recession curve data

A standard method for delineating source protection zones, particularly for karst and carbonate springs, has been improved. The method, based on recession curve analysis, defines four vulnerability scenarios with an evaluation of the appropriate dimensions of the protection areas, accommodating situations where field-test data are not available. The new approach makes it easier to separate the components of the spring discharge hydrograph. The objective is to achieve simplification, and an effective, more rigorous, procedure in the determination of the parameters used by Mangin’s model—Mangin A (1975) Contribution a l’étude hydrodynamique des aquifères karstiques-Troisieme partie: Constitution et fonctionnement des aquifères karstiques (Contribution to the hydrodynamic study of karst aquifers, part 3: formation and work of karst aquifers). Ann Speleol 30(1):21–124. The original procedure, plus the lack of sufficient data, was open to subjective interpretation. With the aid of modern technology, a very large quantity of data is now available and it is necessary to process it using denoise type computer-based filters before passing to interpretation. Working with discharge data series, a statistical approach is proposed to give an analytical solution for determining the values of fundamental parameters of the recession curve model. The new procedure is defined and compared with the original methodology. The new approach has been tested and applied to a number of karst springs in Italy. A case history for a spring located in the Piedmont region of the Maritime Alps, is presented. The proposed new procedure can be utilised to mark the limits of the protection zones of tapped groundwater supplied for potable use, as required by European and local legislation.     

煤层底板断裂突水时间弱化效应机理的仿真模拟研究—以开滦赵各庄煤矿为例

采用现场地应力实测、室内不同含水量情况下的断裂带物质的单轴、三轴常规和流变力学试验以及弹塑性三维可视化数值仿真模拟（FLAC^3D)等研究，获得了断裂带物质弱化效应力学参数，阐述了其弱化机理和主要控制因素，提出了煤层底板断裂构造突水时间弱化效应的新概念。对赵各庄矿13水平（－1100m)F8断层破碎带穿越的首采区安全回采方案做出了预测和评价。     

Optimum design of stone column-improved soft soil using multiobjective optimization technique

A combined simulation–optimization-based methodology is proposed to identify the optimal design parameters for granular bed–stone column-improved soft soil. The methodology combines a finite difference-based simulation model and an evolutionary multiobjective optimization model. A combined simulation–optimization methodology is developed for two different formulations: (a) the minimization of maximum settlement and the minimization of differential settlement subject to stress constraints; (b) the minimization of maximum settlement, the minimization of differential settlement and the maximization of the degree of consolidation subject to stress constraints. The developed methodology is applied to an illustrative system. Different scenarios are evaluated to examine critical field conditions. The solution results show that the modular ratio and the ultimate stress carrying capacity of the stone column are the most important parameters for optimal design. The obtained results also show the potential applicability of the developed methodology.     

Heterogeneous deformation and texture development in halite polycrystals: comparison of different modeling approaches and experimental data

Modeling the plastic deformation and texture evolution in halite is challenging due to its high plastic anisotropy at the single crystal level and to the influence this exerts on the heterogeneity of deformation over halite polycrystals. Three different assumptions for averaging the single crystal responses over the polycrystal were used: a Taylor hypothesis, a self-consistent viscoplastic model, and a finite element methodology. The three modeling approaches employ the same single crystal relations, but construct the polycrystal response differently. The results are compared with experimental data for extension at two temperatures: 20 and 100 °C. These comparisons provide new insights of how the interplay of compatibility and local equilibrium affects the overall plastic behavior and the texture development in highly anisotropic polycrystalline materials. Neither formulation is able to completely simulate the texture development of halite polycrystals while, at the same time, giving sound predictions of microstructural evolution. Results obtained using the finite element methodology are promising, although they point to the need for greater resolution of the individual crystals to capture the full impact of deformation heterogeneities.     

Determination of groundwater solute transport parameters in finite element modelling using tracer injection and withdrawal testing data

The groundwater tracer injection and withdrawal tests are often carried out for the determination of aquifer solute transport parameters. However, the parameter analyses encounter a great difficulty due to the radial flow nature and the variability of the temporal boundary conditions. An adaptive methodology for the determination of groundwater solute transport parameters using tracer injection and withdrawal test data had been developed and illustrated through an actual case. The methodology includes the treatment of the tracer boundary condition at the tracer injection well, the normalization of tracer concentration, the groundwater solute transport finite element modelling and the method of least squares to optimize the parameters. An application of this methodology was carried out in a field test in the South of Hanoi city. The tested aquifer is Pleistocene aquifer, which is a main aquifer and has been providing domestic water supply to the city since the French time. Effective porosity of 0.31, longitudinal dispersivity of 2.2 m, and hydrodynamic dispersion coefficients from D = 220 m²/d right outside the pumping well screen to D =15.8 m²/d right outside the tracer injection well screen have been obtained for the aquifer at the test site. The minimal sum of squares of the differences between the observed and model normalized tracer concentration is 0.00119, which is corresponding to the average absolute difference between observed and model normalized concentrations of 0.035 5 (while 1 is the worst and 0 is the best fit).     

Development of a framework of automated water quality parameter optimization and its application

This paper presents a methodology and framework for the development of an automated least-squares optimization tool for calibrating water quality parameters in QUAL2E. The method has been applied to estimate the optimal water quality parameters in simulation of stream water quality for the Anyang stream in Korea. The Monte Carlo analysis is used to assess the relative importance of model parameters for water quality constituents. It is found that μ_max and ρ are the most influential parameters for Chlorophyll-a modeling and K ₁ and K ₃ are critical parameters for variation of DO and BOD in the Anyang stream. A computer program for automated parameter calibration has been developed using a nonlinear GRG optimization algorithm. The application framework provides an intuitive and easy-to-use interface and allows visual evaluation of results. According to the simulation results, the automated approach is computationally efficient for evaluation of model parameters and converges on a best fit more rapidly and reliably than a trial and error method. The methodology proposed herein can be extended to other models to obtain the best possible parameter values.     

Simplified procedure for reliability-based robust geotechnical design of drilled shafts in clay using spreadsheet

This paper provides a simplified procedure for reliability-based robust geotechnical design (RGD) using spreadsheet. In the RGD methodology, design robustness is achieved by adjusting “design parameters” without reducing the uncertainties in noise factors. This design approach generally involves a multi-objective optimisation, which is computationally challenging. To improve the efficiency of the RGD methodology, the design robustness is evaluated in terms of sensitivity index and the safety requirement is evaluated using mean value first order second moment (MFOSM). To ease the concern that the reliability index obtained with MFOSM may not be sufficiently accurate, a mapping function that relates MFOSM to a more accurate method such as first order reliability method is introduced. To further improve the efficiency of the proposed simplified RGD method, a new simplified procedure along with a more accurate robustness measure is developed that eliminates the need for multi-objective optimisation. With these modifications, the proposed simplified RGD method can efficiently be implemented in a single Excel spreadsheet. The proposed simplified method, which goes beyond any existing reliability-based RGD methods in terms of ease of use and computational efficiency, is illustrated in this paper with an example of robust design of drilled shaft in clay.     

Potentiometrically measured Eh in groundwaters from the Scandinavian Shield

Measurement and interpretation of electrochemical Eh values in natural reducing groundwaters is a complex task. SKB, the company in charge of disposal of nuclear fuel wastes in Sweden, has developed a refined methodology for the determination of this parameter in packered sections in boreholes. The methodology consists of the simultaneous use of three different electrodes (Pt, Au and C) both at depth and at the surface, and maintaining continuous logging over a long period of time. Apart from Eh, the logging also includes other parameters such as pH, dissolved O₂, conductivity and temperature. This methodology has been used since the 80s in the framework of the hydrogeochemical characterisation programs supported by SKB at different sites in the Scandinavian Shield. All the existing databases have been revisited in this work using a uniform set of criteria to select Eh values of the Swedish groundwaters as a function of depth.     

Assessment of Chock Capacity and Strata Caving for a Longwall Mine

A mine scale numerical analysis of modern day longwall using a 3D Cosserat continuum method has been presented. The effect of mine specific geological conditions on viability of introducing a modern day longwall is comprehensively investigated and analysed in this paper. The various longwall parameters like chock (face support) convergence and strata caving mechanism are evaluated. The varying thickness of the sandstone present in the roof can be seen to have a strong impact on the magnitude and pattern of chock convergence. The paper also discusses the performance of chocks with different capacities under identical conditions. The effect of overlaying sandstone properties and width of the longwall panels have also been investigated. The analyses carried out in this study is expected to provide valuable process guidance during the mine design in relation to selecting the optimal mine geometry and support capacity so that the potential mining hazards could be minimized.     

Seismic hazard in Northern Algeria using spatially smoothed seismicity. Results for peak ground acceleration

Seismic hazard in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) has been evaluated in northern Algeria using spatially smoothed seismicity data. We present here a preliminary seismic zoning in northern Algeria as derived from the obtained results.Initially, we have compiled an earthquake catalog of the region taking data from several agencies. Afterwards, we have delimited seismic areas where the b and m_max parameters are different. Finally, by applying the methodology proposed by Frankel [Seismol. Res. Lett. 66 (1995) 8], and using four complete and Poissonian seismicity models, we are able to compute the seismic hazard maps in terms of PGA with 39.3% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years.A significant result of this work is the observation of mean PGA values of the order of 0.20 and 0.45 g, for return periods of 100 and 475 years, respectively, in the central area of the Tell Atlas.     

Reduction of slope stability uncertainty based on hydraulic measurement via inverse analysis

The determination of slope stability for existing slopes is challenging, partly due to the spatial variability of soils. Reliability-based design can incorporate uncertainties and yield probabilities of slope failure. Field measurements can be utilised to constrain probabilistic analyses, thereby reducing uncertainties and generally reducing the calculated probabilities of failure. A method to utilise pore pressure measurements, to first reduce the spatial uncertainty of hydraulic conductivity, by using inverse analysis linked to the Ensemble Kalman Filter, is presented. Subsequently, the hydraulic conductivity has been utilised to constrain uncertainty in strength parameters, usually leading to an increase in the calculated slope reliability.     

A Functional Data Analysis Approach to Surrogate Modeling in Reservoir and Geomechanics Uncertainty Quantification

Uncertainty quantification for geomechanical and reservoir predictions is in general a computationally intensive problem, especially if a direct Monte Carlo approach with large numbers of full-physics simulations is used. A common solution to this problem, well-known for the fluid flow simulations, is the adoption of surrogate modeling approximating the physical behavior with respect to variations in uncertain parameters. The objective of this work is the quantification of such uncertainty both within geomechanical predictions and fluid-flow predictions using a specific surrogate modeling technique, which is based on a functional approach. The methodology realizes an approximation of full-physics simulated outputs that are varying in time and space when uncertainty parameters are changed, particularly important for the prediction of uncertainty in vertical displacement resulting from geomechanical modeling. The developed methodology has been applied both to a subsidence uncertainty quantification example and to a real reservoir forecast risk assessment. The surrogate quality obtained with these applications confirms that the proposed method makes it possible to perform reliable time–space varying dependent risk assessment with a low computational cost, provided the uncertainty space is low-dimensional.     

Robust design in geotechnical engineering – an update

This paper presents an update for the robust geotechnical design (RGD) methodology, which seeks an optimal design with respect to design robustness and cost efficiency, while satisfying the safety requirements. In general, the design robustness is achieved if the system response is insensitive to the variation in the uncertain input parameters (called “noise factors”). In other words, a design is considered robust if the system response exhibits little variation, even though there is high variation in the input parameters. Robust design achieves this desirable outcome by carefully adjusting ‘design parameters’ (i.e., the parameters that can be controlled by the designer, such as the geometry and dimensions) without reducing the uncertainty in the noise factors. In this paper, the existing RGD methodology is updated with a gradient-based robustness measure and a simplified procedure for seeking the knee point. The RGD methodology and its simplified version (with new updates) are illustrated with three design examples. The results presented in this paper show that the RGD methodology and its simplified version are effective design tools that considers safety, cost and design robustness simultaneously. The advantages of the simplified RGD approach are discussed.     

Evaluation of rainfall and wetland water area variability at Thirlmere Lakes using Landsat time-series data

Thirlmere Lakes is a group of five freshwater wetlands in the southwest fringe of Sydney, Australia, that is subject to cyclic wetting and drying. The lakes are surrounded by activities that have led to increasing pressure on the local surface and groundwater supply including farming and mining. The mine has been operating for more than 30 years, and in recent times, there has been speculation that the surface subsidence and underground pumping may have some impact on surface water and groundwater hydrology. A study was undertaken using satellite imagery to examine the relation between water area changes and rainfall variability. The study utilised Landsat time-series data during the period 1982–2014 to calculate changes in the lake water area (LA), through the normalised difference water index (NDWI) threshold. High classification accuracy was achieved using NDWI against high-resolution data that are available for the years 2008 (88.4 %), 2010 (92.8 %), and 2013 (96.9 %). The LA measurement was correlated against 11 historic observations that occurred in 2009, 2010, and 2011 during drier wetland conditions. Correlation analysis of the LA with the residual rainfall mass spread across the past 30 years has found that rainfall variability is a major dominant factor associated with the wetland changes. The underground mining operations, if verified by independent investigations, probably play a minor or negligible contributor to variations in total wetland area during the study period. This study has demonstrated that remote sensing is a technique that can be used to augment limited historic data.     

Simultaneous Estimation of Geologic and Reservoir State Variables Within an Ensemble-Based Multiple-Point Statistic Framework

Assessment of uncertainty due to inadequate data and imperfect geological knowledge is an essential aspect of the subsurface model building process. In this work, a novel methodology for characterizing complex geological structures is presented that integrates dynamic data. The procedure results in the assessment of uncertainty associated with the predictions of flow and transport. The methodology is an extension of a previously developed pattern search-based inverse method that models the spatial variation in flow parameters by searching for patterns in an ensemble of reservoir models. More specifically, the pattern-searching algorithm is extended in two directions: (1) state values (such as piezometric head) and parameters (such as conductivities) are simultaneously and sequentially estimated, which implies that real-time assimilation of dynamic data is possible as in ensemble filtering approaches; and (2) both the estimated parameter and state variables are considered when pattern searching is implemented. The new scheme results in two main advantages—better characterization of parameters, especially for delineating small scale features, and an ensemble of head states that can be used to update the parameter field using the dynamic data at the next instant, without running expensive flow simulations. An efficient algorithm for pattern search is developed, which works with a flexible search radius and can be optimized for the estimation of either large- or small-scale structures. Synthetic examples are employed to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed approach.     

Estimating transmissivity using empirical and geostatistical methods in the volcanic aquifers of Upper Awash Basin, central Ethiopia

Transmissivity (T) is a basic hydraulic parameter of an aquifer that is utilized in most groundwater flow equations to understand the flow dynamics and is generally estimated from pumping tests. However, the cost of performing a large number of aquifer tests is expensive and time consuming. The fact that specific capacity (S _c) is correlated with hydraulic flow properties of aquifers simplifies parameter estimation mainly because specific capacity values are more abundant in groundwater databases than values of transmissivity and they offer another approach to estimate hydraulic parameters of aquifers. In this study, an empirical relation is derived using 214 pairs of transmissivity and specific capacity values that are obtained from pumping tests conducted on water wells penetrating the complex volcanic aquifers of Upper Awash Basin, central Ethiopia. Linear and logarithmic regression functions have been performed and it is found that the logarithmic relationship predicting transmissivity from specific capacity data has a better correlation (R = 0.97) than the linear relationship (R = 0.79). The two parameters are log-normally distributed, in which the logarithmic relation is also better statistically justified than the linear relation. Geostatistical estimations of the transmissivity were made using different inputs and methods. Measured and supplemented transmissivity data obtained from estimates using the derived empirical relation were krigged and cokrigged, spherical and exponential models were fitted to the experimental variograms. The cross-validation results showed that the best estimation is provided using the kriging procedure, the transmissivity field represented by the measured transmissivity data and the experimental variogram fitted with the exponential model. Based on the geostatistical approach, the transmissivity map of the aquifer is produced, which will be used for groundwater flow modeling of the study area that will follow this analysis.