Complexity–entropy analysis of daily stream flow time series in the continental United States

Complexity–entropy causality plane (CECP) is a diagnostic diagram plotting normalized Shannon entropy \({\cal H}_S\) versus Jensen–Shannon complexity \({\cal C}_{JS}\) that has been introduced in nonlinear dynamics analysis to classify signals according to their degrees of randomness and complexity. In this study, we explore the applicability of CECP in hydrological studies by analyzing 80 daily stream flow time series recorded in the continental United States during a period of 75 years, surrogate sequences simulated by autoregressive models (with independent or long-range memory innovations), Theiler amplitude adjusted Fourier transform and Theiler phase randomization, and a set of signals drawn from nonlinear dynamic systems. The effect of seasonality, and the relationships between the CECP quantifiers and several physical and statistical properties of the observed time series are also studied. The results point out that: (1) the CECP can discriminate chaotic and stochastic signals in presence of moderate observational noise; (2) the signal classification depends on the sampling frequency and aggregation time scales; (3) both chaotic and stochastic systems can be compatible with the daily stream flow dynamics, when the focus is on the information content, thus setting these results in the context of the debate on observational equivalence; (4) the empirical relationships between \({\mathcal H}_S\) and \({\mathcal C}_{JS}\) and Hurst parameter H, base flow index, basin drainage area and stream flow quantiles highlight that the CECP quantifiers can be considered as proxies of the long-term low-frequency groundwater processes rather than proxies of the short-term high-frequency surface processes; (6) the joint application of linear and nonlinear diagnostics allows for a more comprehensive characterization of the stream flow time series.     

Possible Solar Modulation of Average Temperature in the Contiguous United States during 1895–2018

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - With monthly average temperature series in the contiguous United States during the period from January 1895 to July 2018, the author uses wavelet analysis to investigate...     

Progress in the hydrologic simulation of time variant recharge areas of karst systems – Exemplified at a karst spring in Southern Spain

A specific characteristic of karst systems is the occurrence of time variant recharge areas. In our study we present a new type of hydrological karst model and a new calibration approach both considering this specific characteristic. The new model type considers the spatial variability of karst system properties by distribution functions, and is compared to a simple reservoir model. Both models are applied to a karst system in Southern Spain where objective functions applied on hydrodynamic and hydrochemical information helped to determine model parameters playing a role for hydrodynamic response. Thereafter, the recharge area is determined separately for individual hydrological years and for the entire time series by calibrating the model to match the water balance. We show that hydrochemical information is crucial to find a reasonable set of parameters for both models. Considering different hydrological years, we find that the recharge area is changing significantly (from 28 to 53 km²). The newly developed model is able to reproduce this variation and provide acceptable simulation results for the entire time series of available data. The classic reservoir model shows inferior performance concerning hydrodynamics and fails to reproduce the water balance because it does not consider variations of recharge area. Our calibration approach allows identifying a variable recharge area and our new model is able to reproduce its variability. Hence we obtain a more realistic system representation, which can be of high significance when models are used for prediction, i.e. beyond the conditions they were calibrated, e.g. for land-use or climate change scenarios.     

Embedding complex hydrology in the regional climate system – Dynamic coupling across different modelling domains

To improve our understanding of the impacts of feedback between the atmosphere and the terrestrial water cycle including groundwater and to improve the integration of water resource management modelling for climate adaption we have developed a dynamically coupled climate–hydrological modelling system. The OpenMI modelling interface is used to couple a comprehensive hydrological modelling system, MIKE SHE running on personal computers, and a regional climate modelling system, HIRHAM running on a high performance computing platform. The coupled model enables two-way interaction between the atmosphere and the groundwater via the land surface and can represent the lateral movement of water in both the surface and subsurface and their interactions, not normally accounted for in climate models. Meso-scale processes are important for climate in general and rainfall in particular. Hydrological impacts are assessed at the catchment scale, the most important scale for water management. Feedback between groundwater, the land surface and the atmosphere occurs across a range of scales. Recognising this, the coupling was developed to allow dynamic exchange of water and energy at the catchment scale embedded within a larger meso-scale modelling domain. We present the coupling methodology used and describe the challenges in representing the exchanges between models and across scales. The coupled model is applied to one-way and two-way coupled simulations for a managed groundwater-dominated catchment, the Skjern River, Denmark. These coupled model simulations are evaluated against field observations and then compared with uncoupled climate and hydrological model simulations. Exploratory simulations show significant differences, particularly in the summer for precipitation and evapotranspiration the coupled model including groundwater and the RCM where groundwater is neglected. However, the resulting differences in the net precipitation and the catchment runoff in this groundwater dominated catchment were small. The need for further decadal scale simulations to understand the differences and insensitivity is highlighted.     

The Spatial Variation of LURR and Seismic Tendency in Western United States

INTRODUCTIONThe Load-Unload Response Ratio(LURR)is a new promising method for medium-termearthquake prediction put forward by Yin,X.C.(Yin,1987;Yin,and Yin,1991;Yin,et al.,1994;2000).In recent years,by this method,a lot of strong earthquakes have been suc…     

Evaluating next-generation intensity–duration–frequency curves for design flood estimates in the snow-dominated western United States

Civil infrastructure such as culverts and bridges are commonly designed using precipitation-based intensity–duration–frequency (PREC-IDF) curves, which assume that the occurrence of precipitation is in the form of rainfall and immediately available for the rainfall-runoff process. In snow-dominated regions, where most winter precipitation occurs as snow that melts during spring to early summer, the use of standard PREC-IDF curves may lead to substantial underestimation of design floods and high failure risk of infrastructure. In this context, we developed next-generation IDF (NG-IDF) curves that characterize the actual water reaching the land surface (i.e., rainfall plus snowmelt) to enhance standard infrastructure design in snow-dominated regions. This study evaluates the performance of NG-IDF curves coupled with U.S. Department of Agriculture Technical Release 55 hydrologic model in estimating design floods for 246 snowy locations in different hydroclimate regimes of the western United States. Design flood estimates from a well-validated continuous simulation using a physics-based hydrologic model, the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), were used as the performance benchmark. Compared with the benchmark estimates, the standard PREC-IDF curves led to substantial errors in design flood estimates, while the NG-IDF curves significantly reduced these errors. For example, the averaged error in the 50-year design flood estimates over the 246 locations was reduced from 31% with the use of PREC-IDF curves to 12% with the use of NG-IDF curves. Despite the different model structures, the single-event NG-IDF approach versus the continuous simulation DHSVM did not exhibit statistically significant differences in 91% of the 246 locations for the 50-year design flood estimates. This indicates a satisfactory performance of NG-IDF curves to estimate design flow under the conditions tested in the snow-dominated western United States. This article also presents technical suggestions and the limitations of infrastructure design using NG-IDF curves for regulatory agencies and practicing engineers.     

Can we tell more than we can know? The limits of bivariate drought analyses in the United States

The joint occurrence of extreme hydroclimatic events, such as simultaneous precipitation deficit and high temperature, results in the so-called compound events, and has a serious impact on risk assessment and mitigation strategies. Multivariate frequency analysis (MFA) allows a probabilistic quantitative assessment of this risk under uncertainty. Analyzing precipitation and temperature records in the contiguous United States (CONUS), and focusing on the assessment of the degree of rarity of the 2014 California drought, we highlight some critical aspects of MFA that are often overlooked and should be carefully taken into account for a correct interpretation of the results. In particular, we show that an informative exploratory data analysis (EDA) devised to check the basic hypotheses of MFA, a suitable assessment of the sampling uncertainty, and a better understanding of probabilistic concepts can help to avoid misinterpretation of univariate and multivariate return periods, and incoherent conclusions concerning the risk of compound extreme hydroclimatic events. Empirical results show that the dependence between precipitation deficit and temperature across the CONUS can be positive, negative or not significant and does not exhibit significant changes in the last three decades. Focusing on the 2014 California drought as a compound event and based on the data used, the probability of occurrence strongly depends on the selected variables and how they are combined, and is affected by large uncertainty, thus preventing definite conclusions about the actual degree of rarity of this event.     

United States Quaternary coastal sequences and molluscan racemization geochronology – What have they meant for each other over the past 45 years?

The field of amino acid racemization (AAR) geochronology had its beginnings in the 1960's with the analysis of Quaternary mollusks of known relative age from United States Atlantic coast sites. Subsequent AAR studies of sites from Florida, California and then the entire western and eastern coasts of the U.S. have documented two important concepts: 1) in both uplifted marine terrace and subsurface sections, it can be demonstrated that D/L values increase with increasing geologic age; 2) D/L values in samples of equal age increase with decreasing latitude (increasing temperature). These two north–south coastlines with broad latitude ranges (Pacific sites span more than 20°, Atlantic sites more than 15°) provide an ideal, rare framework to test these principles, and the contrast in thermal histories of these two coasts (one maritime, the other more continental) adds additional insights into issues of aminozone correlation over latitude ranges as small as 2°. The trend of D/L values vs. latitude (isochrons) is established using calibrations based primarily on U–Th coral dating, the best of these calibrated trends seen for multiple sites on the Pacific coast. Pacific coast isochrons follow smooth trends and have been used to create and evaluate kinetic models using the modern latitudinal temperature gradient for comparison. Atlantic coast isochrons are more difficult to reconcile with the modern temperature gradient and available U–Th coral ages, suggesting either complex effective temperatures or unknown diagenetic effects on the AAR results. In addition to these studies that used local or regional field studies to test and evaluate AAR methods, relative or numerical ages based on AAR studies on both coasts have contributed to research on coastal uplift or subsidence rates, coastal stratigraphy and sea-level history, age mixing, and diagenesis of carbonate fossils.     

Deformation processes in the lithosphere related to the nonuniformity of the Earth’s rotation

The series of observations conducted at the Baksan and Protvino deformation stations in the Northern Caucasus and the Central Russian Plain, respectively, and the length-of-day (LOD) data describing the variable rate of the Earth’s rotation are used to study the relation between the deformation processes in the lithosphere and the global geodynamics of the Earth over short time intervals. The methods applied are based on high-resolution spectral analysis, analysis of the coherence of the studied processes, and correlation analysis. A significant (95%) correlation is revealed between the local deformation fields at two remote observation stations, which proves the existence of a global component in the Earth’s deformation field that manifests itself at characteristic time intervals of up to 3–4 weeks. At the same level of significance, the correlation between the local deformation fields and variations in the rate of the Earth’s rotation has also been identified. It is shown that the found correlations in the tidal low-frequency range are caused by the direct impact of the long-period tidal loading (M _f and M _tm waves) on the lithosphere and the length-of-the-day (LOD). The global mechanisms giving rise to the correlation of these processes in the nontidal range require further study.     

Earthquake epicentroids in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan-Zhangjiakou region inversed by gravity variation data

Introduction Since the 1960s, gravity changes associated with seismogenesis and earthquake occurrences have been found by many researchers and various physical mechanisms have been proposed to explain these relationship (MEI, 1993; Chen, et al, 1979; Li, Fu, 1983). The US/China joint project beginning in 1981 presented a thorough study of the relationship between gravity variations and earthquake occurrences in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan-Zhangjiakou (BTTZ) region, leading to a combined…     

National water data coordination in the United States / Coordination national des données sur les ressources en eau aux Etats-Unis

Abstract

The Office of Water Data Coordination (OWDC), established in 1964 within the Department of the Interior's Geological Survey, is charged with the lead-agency responsibility for coordinating Federal water-data collection activities, cataloguing all water-data acquisition activities, and developing a national plan to acquire needed water data. A 21-volume ‘Catalog of Information on Water Data’ has been released, and the data-collection activities of all Federal agencies are coordinated through an annually released Federal Plan. The National Water Data Network, initially developed in 1966, has been further refined through a coordinated effort that has provided a nationally consistent set of river-basin maps for use in water-resources planning and assessment and in organizing and disseminating water-resources information. Following recommendations set forth by Federal and non-Federal advisory committees, the OWDC embarked on a procedure for designation of standards for water-data acquisition. The initial work, which began in 1970, resulted in publication of an interagency preliminary report. That report presently is being updated and expanded in cooperation with 30 Federal agencies, with organizations concerned with setting technical standards and with other non-Federal agencies. This activity will result in improved comparability, reliability, and usability of the data, and in improved efficiency in generating, storing, processing, and disseminating water information.     

Impacts of LUCC processes on potential land productivity in China in the 1990s

Land resources (quantity and quality) and climate condition are two of the most important factors that regulate regional agriculture productivity. Climate and land-use have had great changes in the past decades, and hence are expected to impact crop productivity significantly. Climate change will affect crop produc-tivity through alterations of, for example, light, heat, temperature, precipitation. Land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) directly affects potential land produc-tivity by changin…     

Does hillslope trenching enhance groundwater recharge and baseflow in the Peruvian Andes?

As Andean glaciers rapidly retreat due to climate change, the balance of groundwater and glacial meltwater contributions to stream discharge in tropical, proglacial watersheds will change, potentially increasing vulnerability of water resources. The Shullcas River Watershed, near Huancayo, Peru, is fed only partly by the rapidly receding Huaytapallana glaciers (<20% of dry season flow). To potentially increase recharge and therefore increase groundwater derived baseflow, the government and not‐for‐profit organizations have installed trenches along large swaths of hillslope in the Shullcas Watershed. Our study focuses on a nonglacierized subcatchment of the Shullcas River Watershed and has 2 objectives: (a) create a model of the Shullcas groundwater system and assess the controls on stream discharge and (b) investigate the impact of the infiltration trenches on recharge and baseflow. We first collected hydrologic data from the field including a year‐long hydrograph (2015–2016), meteorological data (2011–2016), and infiltration measurements. We use a recharge model to evaluate the impact of trenched hillslopes on infiltration and runoff processes. Finally, we use a 3‐dimensional groundwater model, calibrated to the measured dry season baseflow, to determine the impact of trenching on the catchment. Simulations show that trenched hillslopes receive approximately 3.5% more recharge, relative to precipitation, compared with unaltered hillslopes. The groundwater model indicates that because the groundwater flow system is fast and shallow, incorporating trenched hillslopes (~2% of study subcatchment area) only slightly increases baseflow in the dry season. Furthermore, the location of trenching is an important consideration: Trenching higher in the catchment (further from the river) and in flatter terrain provides more baseflow during the dry season. The results of this study may have important implications for Andean landscape management and water resources.     

Groundwater Renewal in the Middle Odra River Catchment Based on Flow Model and Isotopic Data – the Lubin Głogów Copper Region,Poland

In the area of intense mining within the Lubin Głogów Copper Region the investigation of groundwater renewal was made according to two methods: a numerical flow model and isotopic analysis. The results of model simulations show that within the shallow aquifer the groundwater renewal is quick and mostly depends on infiltration within the recharge zones. An average time of groundwater flow between recharge and discharge areas in the representative part of the entire system has been obtained as 130 years. The content of isotopes was determined in samples collected as well from the mine excavations as from water intakes. The measurements were done on 17 samples. Results of isotopic studies indicate that the relationship of δD – δ18O in groundwater gathers along the established local meteoric water line (MWL) δD = 7.58 δ18O + 4.45. Deep groundwaters that create an inflow to the mines were formed by infiltration in Holocene with reference to two of total four mines and probably in Eopleistocene in another two.     

Seasonal variation in Tsushima Warm Current paths over the shelf off the San’in coast,Japan

Using long-term sea surface temperature (SST) and acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) data, we examined variations in the current axis of the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC) off the San’in coast of Japan, near the entrance to the Japan Sea. There were large horizontal temperature gradients along the shelf edge in the southwestern Japan Sea from October to May, suggesting that the second branch of the TWC appears not only in spring and autumn but also in winter. From the ADCP data analysis, we found that currents with speeds of approximately 20 cm s^?1 and greater appeared around the shelf edge off San’in coast in all seasons. The SST and ADCP data analyses suggested that the second branch of the TWC exists around the shelf edge off the San’in coast throughout the year. This finding differed from those of previous studies. A relatively strong current (speed greater than 15 cm s^?1) appeared on the shore side in all seasons, except at line W in winter. This current might be the first branch of the TWC. The first branch seemed to occur around in 100 m isobaths, but shifted northward and southward because the bottom topography around lines W and M was relatively flat and the shelf was broad. The first branch was very obscure, and it was difficult to define the two branches of the TWC off the San’in coast from the seasonally averaged vectors. However, snapshots of current distribution derived from the ADCP data clearly showed these branches. Hence, both the first and second branches might occur throughout the year off the San’in coast.     

Stable isotopes of water reveal differences in plant – soil water relationships across northern environments

We compared stable isotopes of water in plant stem (xylem) water and soil collected over a complete growing season from five well-known long-term study sites in northern/cold regions. These spanned a decreasing temperature gradient from Bruntland Burn (Scotland), Dorset (Canadian Shield), Dry Creek (USA), Krycklan (Sweden), to Wolf Creek (northern Canada). Xylem water was isotopically depleted compared to soil waters, most notably for deuterium. The degree to which potential soil water sources could explain the isotopic composition of xylem water was assessed quantitatively using overlapping polygons to enclose respective data sets when plotted in dual isotope space. At most sites isotopes in xylem water from angiosperms showed a strong overlap with soil water; this was not the case for gymnosperms. In most cases, xylem water composition on a given sampling day could be better explained if soil water composition was considered over longer antecedent periods spanning many months. Xylem water at most sites was usually most dissimilar to soil water in drier summer months, although sites differed in the sequence of change. Open questions remain on why a significant proportion of isotopically depleted water in plant xylem cannot be explained by soil water sources, particularly for gymnosperms. It is recommended that future research focuses on the potential for fractionation to affect water uptake at the soil-root interface, both through effects of exchange between the vapour and liquid phases of soil water and the effects of mycorrhizal interactions. Additionally, in cold regions, evaporation and diffusion of xylem water in winter may be an important process.     

Synchronization signals in the variations of groundwater chemical composition in Kamchatka in relation to the strong (M W ≥ 6.6) earthquakes

We consider the results of the statistical analysis using the methods of the principal components and canonical coherences applied to the processing of long (1986–2005) time series of hydrogeochemical observations at the flowing wells and springs in Kamchatka. The time-frequency diagrams of the evolution of informative statistics characterizing the collective behavior of multidimensional hydrogeochemical time series are constructed, and the time intervals and frequency bands where the synchronization signals (Lyubushin, 2007) appear are identified. The features of their occurrence are analyzed in comparison to the strong (M _w = 6.6?7.8) local earthquakes. It is found that such signals in the measurements of some multidimensional time series can arise both before and after earthquakes, i.e. these signals have a precursory (P2) and postseismic (P3) character.     

Is there any seasonal variation in marine nematodes within the sediments of the intertidal zone?

The sediment parameters and nematode assemblages in the intertidal zone of the Hichirippu shallow lagoon, Hokkaido, Japan, were investigated. The objectives of this study were to observe the seasonal variation in the nematodes in the sediment, and to investigate the relationships between the nematodes and environmental factors. Samples were collected bi-monthly from five stations on the tidal flat from April 2003 to February 2004. It was found that the sediment parameters (Chl a concentration, AVS, TOC and TN contents) varied throughout the 10-month study. Fifty-four species of nematodes were found in the study area. The density and biomass of the nematodes varied in accordance with the sediment temperature during the sampling period. In this study, there was a seasonal variation in the nematode assemblage found in the intertidal zone of this shallow lagoon. The important factors affecting this variation were sediment temperature, and food competition among the nematodes themselves. The seasonal variation of the nematode also showed a relationship with the Chl a concentration in the sediment during the sampling period.