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1.
An analysis of the variation characteristics and evolutionary trends in the runoff of five rivers in the Poyang Lake Basin was conducted using the MK trend test, Morlet wavelet transforms, correlation analyses, and other methods. For 1956–2011, the inflow runoff displays small, statistically insignificant trends. However, for 2000–2011, significant downward trends are present. River runoff in the basin is significantly correlated with precipitation, while water intake and use is less influential; the most significant impact on river runoff is climate variability. To analyse the effects of water conservancy project scheduling and operation, we also compare the inflow and outflow runoff processes of typical large reservoirs before and after peak reservoir construction. The scheduling and operation of large reservoirs in the five rivers is known to play a supplementary role in dry season inflow runoff. The recent reduction in inflow runoff was mainly caused by basin precipitation; reasonable scheduling of water conservancy projects in the five rivers plays a positive role in safeguarding the water required by the dry season ecosystem in Poyang Lake.  相似文献   

2.
Huai River Basin, as the sixth largest river basin in China, has a high‐regulated river system and has been facing severe water problems. In this article, the changing patterns of runoff and precipitation at 10 hydrological stations from 1956 to 2000 on the highly regulated river (Shaying River) and less‐regulated river (Huai River) in the basin are evaluated at the monthly, seasonal and annual scales using the Mann–Kendall test and simple linear regression model. The results showed that: (1) No statistically significant trends of precipitation in the upper and middle Huai River Basins were detected at the annual scale, but the trend of annual runoff at Baiguishan, Zhoukou and Fuyang stations in Shaying River decreased significantly, whereas the others were not. Moreover, the decreasing trends of runoff for most months were significant in Shaying River, although the trend of monthly precipitation decreased significantly only in April in the whole research area and the number of months in the dry season having significantly decreasing trends in runoff was more than that in the wet season. (2) The rainfall–runoff relationship was significant in both highly regulated river and less‐regulated river. In regulated river, the reservoirs have larger regulation capacity than the floodgates and thus have the smaller correlation coefficient and t‐value. In Huai River, the correlation coefficients decreased from upper stream to downstream. (3) The regulation of dams and floodgates for flood control and water supply was the principal reason for the decreasing runoff in Huai River Basin, although the decreasing precipitation in April in this basin was statistically significant. The findings are useful for recognizing hydrology variation and will provide scientific foundation to integrated water resources management in Huai River Basin. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Heejun Chang 《水文研究》2007,21(2):211-222
This study investigates changes in streamflow characteristics for urbanizing watersheds in the Portland Metropolitan Area of Oregon for the period from 1951 to 2000. The objective of this study was to assess how mean annual runoff ratio, mean seasonal runoff ratio, annual peak runoff ratio, changes in streamflow in response to storm amount, the fraction of time that the daily mean flow exceeds the annual mean flow, 3‐day recession constants, and dry/wet flow ratio vary among watersheds with different degrees of urban development. There were no statistically significant changes in annual runoff ratio and annual peak runoff ratio for the mixed land‐use watershed (Tualatin River watershed) and the urban watershed (Johnson Creek watershed) during the entire study period. The Tualatin River watershed, where most of the urban development occurred in a lower part of the watershed, showed a statistically significant increase in annual peak runoff ratio during the 1976 and 2000 period. The Upper Tualatin River watershed illustrated a significant decrease in annual peak runoff ratio for the entire study period. With significant differences in seasonal runoff ratio, only Johnson Creek exhibited a significant increase in both wet and dry season runoff ratios. Streamflow during storm events declined rapidly in the urban watershed, with a high 3‐day recession constant. At an event storm scale, streamflow in Fanno Creek, which is the most urbanized watershed, responded quickly to precipitation input. The fraction of time that the daily mean flow exceeded the annual mean flow and dry/wet flow ratio are all lower in Johnson Creek. This suggests a shorter duration of storm runoff and lower baseflow in the urbanized watershed when compared to the mixed land use watershed. The findings of this study demonstrate the importance of spatial and temporal scale, climate variability, and basin physiographic characteristics in detecting the hydrologic effects of urbanization in the Pacific Northwest of the USA. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
Gangsheng Wang  Jun Xia 《水文研究》2010,24(11):1455-1471
Hydrological simulation and assessment in a dam–sluice regulated river basin are a complex and challenging issue. In this article, an improved SWAT2000 modelling system was developed that incorporated the Shuffled complex evolution (SCE‐UA) optimization algorithm and the multi‐site and multi‐objective calibration strategy. The implication of multi‐objective is different for different types of outlets, i.e. streamflow for an ordinary outlet, inflow for a sluice, and water storage for a reservoir. Model parameters were redefined to improve model simulations. The surface runoff lag time (SURLAG) was extended as a spatially distributed parameter, and a correction coefficient was introduced to modify the saturated hydraulic conductivity. The modelling system was then applied to the Huai River basin of China under various climatic conditions, including a very dry year (1999), a dry year (1981), an average year (1971), and wet year (1991). In all, 26 dams and 35 sluices were considered, among which about 20 dams/sluices were used for model calibration. The impact assessment primarily focused on the very dry year (1999). The results indicated that the released water from large reservoirs was blocked in the river channels by sluices located downstream. In the very dry year, the dam–sluice operations could result in an increase of the runoff volume during the non‐flood season and a decrease in runoff during the flood season, but the changing magnitude during the non‐flood season was much greater. An important conclusion of this case study is that the sluices in the Sha‐Yin branch located in the north region and the dams in the southern mountainous region above the Wangjiaba Hydrological Station have played the most significant role in regulating the streamflow of the entire river basin. The methods addressed in this article can simulate hydrological regime in the river basins regulated by dams and sluices under different climatic conditions at the whole‐watershed scale. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
ABSTRACT

The suspended sediment rating curves for six stations on four rivers in western and northern Greece are investigated. For each station the suspended sediment load is a power function of the water discharge, which may be distinguished according to wet and dry seasons; the latter yields higher sediment loads for a given discharge than the former. This is due to the higher erosivity of dry season rainfall compared to wet season rainfall producing the same runoff. All rating curve exponents b lie in the range 2.5–3.5 for the wet and 2.0–3.0 for the dry season and are related to the constants a of the curves by empirical equations. The variation in a and b is explained in terms of the annual precipitation and area of the basin, the hypsometric fall, the main channel length, and the average bedslope of the river from the basin divide to the station, through empirical relationships, which also permit the prediction of rating curves for ungauged basins.  相似文献   

6.
Integrated river basin models should provide a spatially distributed representation of basin hydrology and transport processes to allow for spatially implementing specific management and conservation measures. To accomplish this, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was modified by integrating a landscape routing model to simulate water flow across discretized routing units. This paper presents a grid‐based version of the SWAT landscape model that has been developed to enhance the spatial representation of hydrology and transport processes. The modified model uses a new flow separation index that considers topographic features and soil properties to capture channel and landscape flow processes related to specific landscape positions. The resulting model is spatially fully distributed and includes surface, lateral and groundwater fluxes in each grid cell of the watershed. Furthermore, it more closely represents the spatially heterogeneous distributed flow and transport processes in a watershed. The model was calibrated and validated for the Little River Watershed (LRW) near Tifton, Georgia (USA). Water balance simulations as well as the spatial distribution of surface runoff, subsurface flow and evapotranspiration are examined. Model results indicate that groundwater flow is the dominant landscape process in the LRW. Results are promising, and satisfactory output was obtained with the presented grid‐based SWAT landscape model. Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiencies for daily stream flow were 0.59 and 0.63 for calibration and validation periods, and the model reasonably simulates the impact of the landscape position on surface runoff, subsurface flow and evapotranspiration. Additional revision of the model will likely be necessary to adequately represent temporal variations of transport and flow processes in a watershed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
River discharges vary strongly through time and space, and quantifying this variability is fundamental to understanding and modelling river processes. The river basin is increasingly being used as the unit for natural resource planning and management; to facilitate this, basin‐scale models of material supply and transport are being developed. For many basin‐scale planning activities, detailed rainfall‐runoff modelling is neither necessary nor tractable, and models that capture spatial patterns of material supply and transport averaged over decades are sufficient. Nevertheless, the data to describe the spatial variability of river discharge across large basins for use in such models are often limited, and hence models to predict river discharge at the basin scale are required. We describe models for predicting mean annual flow and a non‐dimensional measure of daily flow variability for every river reach within a drainage network. The models use sparse river gauging data, modelled grid surfaces of mean annual rainfall and mean annual potential evapotranspiration, and a network accumulation algorithm. We demonstrate the parameterization and application of the models using data for the Murrumbidgee basin, in southeast Australia, and describe the use of these predictions in modelling sediment transport through the river network. The regionalizations described contain less uncertainty, and are more sensitive to observed spatial variations in runoff, than regionalizations based on catchment area and rainfall alone. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Joshua C. Koch 《水文研究》2016,30(21):3918-3931
Arctic thaw lakes are an important source of water for aquatic ecosystems, wildlife, and humans. Many recent studies have observed changes in Arctic surface waters related to climate warming and permafrost thaw; however, explaining the trends and predicting future responses to warming is difficult without a stronger fundamental understanding of Arctic lake water budgets. By measuring and simulating surface and subsurface hydrologic fluxes, this work quantified the water budgets of three lakes with varying levels of seasonal drainage, and tested the hypothesis that lateral and subsurface flows are a major component of the post‐snowmelt water budgets. A water budget focused only on post‐snowmelt surface water fluxes (stream discharge, precipitation, and evaporation) could not close the budget for two of three lakes, even when uncertainty in input parameters was rigorously considered using a Monte Carlo approach. The water budgets indicated large, positive residuals, consistent with up to 70% of mid‐summer inflows entering lakes from lateral fluxes. Lateral inflows and outflows were simulated based on three processes; supra‐permafrost subsurface inflows from basin‐edge polygonal ground, and exchange between seasonally drained lakes and their drained margins through runoff and evapotranspiration. Measurements and simulations indicate that rapid subsurface flow through highly conductive flowpaths in the polygonal ground can explain the majority of the inflow. Drained lakes were hydrologically connected to marshy areas on the lake margins, receiving water from runoff following precipitation and losing up to 38% of lake efflux to drained margin evapotranspiration. Lateral fluxes can be a major part of Arctic thaw lake water budgets and a major control on summertime lake water levels. Incorporating these dynamics into models will improve our ability to predict lake volume changes, solute fluxes, and habitat availability in the changing Arctic. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.  相似文献   

9.
Impact of climate change on water resources in southern Taiwan   总被引:17,自引:0,他引:17  
This study investigates the impact of climate change on water resources in southern Taiwan. The upstream catchment of Shin-Fa Bridge station in the Kao-Pen Creek basin was the study area chosen herein. The historical trends of meteorological variables, such as mean daily temperature, mean daily precipitation on wet days, monthly wet days, and the transition probabilities of daily precipitation occurrence in each month, at the Kao-Hsiung meteorological station, near the catchments were detected using a non-parametric statistical test. The trends of these meteorological variables were then employed to generate runoff in future climatic conditions using a continuous rainfall–runoff model. The analytical results indicate that the transition probabilities of daily precipitation occurrence significantly influence precipitation generation, and generated runoff for future climatic conditions in southern Taiwan was found to rise during the wet season and decline during the dry season.  相似文献   

10.
Studying the processes responsible for the distribution of water resources in a river basin over space and time is of great importance for spatial planning. In this study a multi-agent simulation approach is applied for exploring the influence of alternative reservoir operation strategies on water use distribution in the semi-arid Jaguaribe basin in case of decreasing rainfall. Water use distribution is analyzed both for one specific subbasin – our study area – and for the river basin level. Agents in this study are farmers that adapt to local variations in water availability. In this way both natural and human influences on water availability are taken into account. This study shows that a decrease in rainfall and runoff in the Jaguaribe basin leads to a transition of water use from the dry season to the wet season. The dry season water use decreases because of reduced water availability in the dry season. This mainly is the result of reduced rainfall and runoff in the wet season and the consequent increased water use for irrigation in the wet season. A decrease in rainfall and runoff also leads to a relative transition of water use from downstream to upstream at the basin scale. Strategic reservoir operation enables local water managers to offset the effect of decreasing rainfall and runoff with regards to water use at the subbasin level, at the cost of further decreasing water availability at the basin level.  相似文献   

11.
Study on runoff variations and responses can lay a foundation for flood control, water allocation and integrated river basin management. This study applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to simulate the effects of land use on annual and monthly runoff in the Middle and Upstream Reaches of Taoerhe River basin, Northeast China, under the wet, average and dry climate conditions through scenario analysis. The results showed that from the early 1970s to 2000, land use change with an increase in farmland (17.0%) and decreases in forest (10.6%), grassland (4.6%) and water body (3.1%) caused increases in annual and monthly runoff. This effect was more distinct in the wet season or in the wet year, suggesting that land use change from the early 1970s to 2000 may increase the flood potential in the wet season. Increases in precipitation and air temperature from the average to wet year led to annual and monthly (March and from June to December) runoff increases, while a decrease in precipitation and an increase in air temperature from the average to dry year induced decreases in annual and monthly (all months except March) runoff, and moreover, these effects were more remarkable in the wet season than those in the dry season. Due to the integrated effects of changing land use and climate conditions, the annual runoff increased (decreased) by 70.1 mm (25.2 mm) or 197.4% (71.0%) from the average to wet (dry) year. In conclusion, climate conditions, especially precipitation, played an important role in runoff variations while land use change was secondary over the study area, and furthermore, the effects of changes in land use and/or climate conditions on monthly runoff were larger in the wet season. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
Stream and rainfall gauging and runoff sampling were used to determine changes in hydrology and export of nutrients and suspended sediment from a June 2004 wildfire that burned 3010 ha in chaparral coastal watersheds of the Santa Ynez Mountains, California. Precipitation during water year 2005 exceeded average precipitation by 200–260%. Burned watersheds had order of magnitude higher peak discharge compared with unburned watersheds but similar annual runoff. Suspended sediment export of 181 mt ha?1 from a burned watershed was approximately ten times greater than from unburned watersheds. Ammonium export from burned watersheds largely occurred during the first three storms and was 32 times greater than from unburned watersheds. Nitrate, dissolved organic nitrogen, and phosphate export from burned watersheds increased by 5.5, 2.8, and 2.2 times, respectively, compared with unburned chaparral watersheds. Storm runoff and peak discharge increase in burned compared with unburned sites were greatest during early season storms when enhanced runoff occurred. As the winter progressed, closely spaced storms and above average precipitation reduced the fire‐related impacts that resulted in significant increases in annual post‐fire runoff and export in other studies in southern California chaparral. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
The Senegal River is of intermediate size accommodating at present about 3.5 million inhabitants in its catchment. Its upstream tributaries flow through different climatic zones from the wet tropics in the source area in Guinea to the dry Sahel region at the border between Senegal and Mauritania. Total suspended matter, particulate and dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen as well as nutrient concentrations were determined during the dry and wet seasons at 19 locations from the up- to downstream river basin. The aims of the study were to evaluate the degree of human interference, to determine the dissolved and particulate river discharges into the coastal sea and to supply data to validate model results. Statistical analyses showed that samples from the wet and dry season are significantly different in composition and that the upstream tributaries differ mainly in their silicate and suspended matter contents. Nutrient concentrations are relatively low in the river basin, indicating low human impact. Increasing nitrate concentrations, however, show the growing agriculture in the irrigated downstream areas. Particulate organic matter is dominated by C4 plants during the wet season and by aquatic plankton during the dry season. The total suspended matter (TSM) discharge at the main gauging station Bakel was about 1.93 Tg yr−1 which is in the range of the only available literature data from the 1980s. The calculated annual discharges of particulate organic carbon (POC), dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) are 55.8 Gg yr−1, 54.1 Gg yr−1, and 5.3 Gg yr−1, respectively. These first estimates from the Senegal River need to be verified by further studies.  相似文献   

14.
The spatial representativeness of gauging stations was investigated in two low‐mountainous river basins near the city of Trier, southwest Germany. Longitudinal profiles during low and high flow conditions were sampled in order to identify sources of solutes and to characterize the alteration of flood wave properties during its travel downstream. Numerous hydrographs and chemographs of natural flood events were analysed in detail. Additionally, artificial flood events were investigated to study in‐channel transport processes. During dry weather conditions the gauging station was only representative for a short river segment upstream, owing to discharge and solute concentrations of sources contiguous to the measurement site. During artificial flood events the kinematic wave velocity was considerably faster than the movement of water body and solutes, refuting the idea of a simple mixing process of individual runoff components. Depending on hydrological boundary conditions, the wave at a specific gauge could be entirely composed of old in‐channel water, which notably reduces the spatial representativeness of a sampling site. Natural flood events were characterized by a superimposition of local overland flow, riparian water and the kinematic wave process comprising the downstream conveyance of solutes. Summer floods in particular were marked by a chronological occurrence of distinct individual runoff components originating only from a few contributing areas adjacent to the stream and gauge. Thus, the representativeness of a gauge for processes in the whole basin depends on the distance of the nearest significant source to the station. The consequence of our study is that the assumptions of mixing models are not satisfied in river basins larger than 3 km2. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
As the population and economy boom, more and more dams are being built in the Mekong River basin. Previous studies have revealed that Manwan Dam had little influence on the runoff–SSC (suspended sediment concentration) relationship, and the sediment load was relatively stable over the past 40 years. However, little is known at present on the relationship among monsoons, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), precipitation, runoff, and the impact of dams on the delta dynamics. A comprehensive hydropower GIS database covering the entire Mekong basin is presented in this study. Mann–Kendall trend analysis showed no significant change in precipitation and runoff over the past 50 years. Spectral analysis showed that the runoffs of the middle to lower reach of Mekong River are correlated with the Indian Monsoon, where as the East Asian Monsoon's influence is mainly on the lower reach. With another 200 new dams to be added to the basin in the next couple of decades, changes are expected in both hydrological regime and delta dynamics. On one hand, the runoff showed a closer connection with the regional precipitation and ENSO in the post‐dam period (1993–2005) than in the pre‐dam period (1950–1993). Such a relationship is expected to be even closer when more dams are completed. On the other hand, both daily maximum and minimum water levels on the delta plain have shown an abrupt drop since the end of 1994. This reduced water‐level gradient between the river and sea inevitably weakens the sediment discharge to the coast, which might intensify the ongoing coastal erosion on the eastern part of the delta plain. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
Within the hydrodynamic modelling community, it is common practice to apply different modelling systems for coastal waters and river systems. Whereas for coastal waters 3D finite difference or finite element grids are commonly used, river systems are generally modelled using 1D networks. Each of these systems is tailored towards specific applications. Three-dimensional coastal water models are designed to model the horizontal and vertical variability in coastal waters and are less well suited for representing the complex geometry and cross-sectional areas of river networks. On the other hand, 1D river network models are designed to accurately represent complex river network geometries and complex structures like weirs, barrages and dams. A disadvantage, however, is that they are unable to resolve complex spatial flow variability. In real life, however, coastal oceans and rivers interact. In deltaic estuaries, both tidal intrusion of seawater into the upstream river network and river discharge into open waters play a role. This is frequently approached by modelling the systems independently, with off-line coupling of the lateral boundary forcing. This implies that the river and the coastal model run sequentially, providing lateral discharge (1D) and water level (3D) forcing to each other without the possibility of direct feedback or interaction between these processes. An additional disadvantage is that due to the time aggregation usually applied to exchanged quantities, mass conservation is difficult to ensure. In this paper, we propose an approach that couples a 3D hydrodynamic modelling system for coastal waters (Delft3D) with a 1D modelling system for river hydraulics (SOBEK) online. This implies that contrary to off-line coupling, the hydrodynamic quantities are exchanged between the 1D and 3D domains during runtime to resolve the real-time exchange and interaction between the coastal waters and river network. This allows for accurate and mass conserving modelling of complex coastal waters and river network systems, whilst the advantages of both systems are maintained and used in an optimal and computationally efficient way. The coupled 1D–3D system is used to model the flows in the Pearl River Delta (Guangdong, China), which are determined by the interaction of the upstream network of the Pearl River and the open waters of the South China Sea. The highly complex upstream river network is modelled in 1D, simulating river discharges for the dry and wet monsoon periods. The 3D coastal model simulates the flow due to the external (ocean) periodic tidal forcing, the salinity distribution for both dry and wet seasons, as well as residual water levels (sea level anomalies) originating from the South China Sea. The model is calibrated and its performance extensively assessed against field measurements, resulting in a mean root mean square (RMS) error of below 6% for water levels over the entire Pearl River Delta. The model also represents both the discharge distribution over the river network and salinity transport processes with good accuracy, resolving the discharge distribution over the main branches of the river network within 5% of reported annual mean values and RMS errors for salinity in the range of 2 ppt (dry season) to 5 ppt (wet season).  相似文献   

17.
ABSTRACT

Proper management of coastal freshwater resources depends on an understanding of processes controlling their chemistry and seasonal flowpaths. A quantitative approach involving the coupling of major solutes and isotopes (δ18O, δ2H) of 180 samples in end-member mixing analysis (EMMA) was adopted to elucidate seasonal patterns of hydraulic exchanges amongst coastal waters along the Ebrié Lagoon catchment, Ivory Coast. The results show that the Ebrié Lagoon is a hydrologically dynamic system. In the dry season, evaporation and seawater inflow are the dominating processes, while in the wet season, river discharge is the main water source in the lagoon. Regional geology plays a significant role in aquifer recharge patterns. The Quaternary aquifer responds faster to precipitation, while the Mio-Pliocene aquifer is recharged indirectly via floodplain seepages. Salinization of over 90% of wells arises from hydrological exchanges with the Ebrié Lagoon. A diluted seawater effect was recorded in wells during the wet season owing to the relative increase in freshwater inflow.  相似文献   

18.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):98-99
Abstract

Lake Poopó, within the large Altiplano basin of Bolivia, is connected upstream to Lake Titicaca and downstream to the salares, the big salt fields. Small changes in precipitation and river inflows strongly affect the extent of the lake surface area. For times when there are no satellite images, it is difficult to determine the extent of the lake from observations. Water balance computations were performed to create a water-level series for Lake Poopó extending back in time. The dominant water inflow to Lake Poopó is from the River Desaguadero, which constitutes the outflow of Lake Titicaca. The water-balance computations confirm the crude peasant knowledge about historical lake status. It is found that if the lake level is less than 1 m during the wet season, there is a risk that this shallow lake dries out in the dry season.  相似文献   

19.
In this study, the Mean Transit Time and Mixing Model Analysis methods are combined to unravel the runoff generation process of the San Francisco River basin (73.5 km2) situated on the Amazonian side of the Cordillera Real in the southernmost Andes of Ecuador. The montane basin is covered with cloud forest, sub‐páramo, pasture and ferns. Nested sampling was applied for the collection of streamwater samples and discharge measurements in the main tributaries and outlet of the basin, and for the collection of soil and rock water samples. Weekly to biweekly water grab samples were taken at all stations in the period April 2007–November 2008. Hydrometric data, Mean Transit Time and Mixing Model Analysis allowed preliminary evaluation of the processes controlling the runoff in the San Francisco River basin. Results suggest that flow during dry conditions mainly consists of lateral flow through the C‐horizon and cracks in the top weathered bedrock layer, and that all subcatchments have an important contribution of this deep water to runoff, no matter whether pristine or deforested. During normal to low precipitation intensities, when antecedent soil moisture conditions favour water infiltration, vertical flow paths to deeper soil horizons with subsequent lateral subsurface flow contribute most to streamflow. Under wet conditions in forested catchments, streamflow is controlled by near surface lateral flow through the organic horizon. Exceptionally, saturation excess overland flow occurs. By absence of the litter layer in pasture, streamflow under wet conditions originates from the A horizon, and overland flow. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
The effects of land‐use changes on the runoff process in the midstream plain of this arid inland river basin are a key factor in the rational allocation of water resources to the middle and lower reaches. The question is whether and by how much increasingly heavy land use impacts the hydrological processes in such an arid inland river basin. The catchment of the Heihe River, one of the largest inland rivers in the arid region of northwest China, was chosen to investigate the hydrological responses to land‐use change. Flow duration curves were used to detect trends and variations in runoff between the upper and lower reaches. Relationships among precipitation, upstream runoff, and hydrological variables were identified to distinguish the effects of climatic changes and upstream runoff changes on middle and downstream runoff processes. The quantitative relation between midstream cultivated land use and various parameters of downstream runoff processes were analysed using the four periods of land‐use data since 1956. The Volterra numerical function relation of the hydrological non‐linear system response was utilized to develop a multifactor hydrological response simulation model based on the three factors of precipitation, upstream runoff, and cultivated land area. The results showed that, since 1967, the medium‐ and high‐coverage natural grassland area in the midstream region has decreased by 80·1%, and the downstream runoff has declined by 27·32% due to the continuous expansion of the cultivated land area. The contribution of cultivated land expansion to the impact on the annual total runoff is 14–31%, on the annual, spring and winter base flow it is 44–75%, and on spring and winter discharge it is 23–64%. Once the water conservation plan dominated by land‐use structural adjustments is implemented over the next 5 years, the mean annual discharge in the lower reach could increase by 8·98% and the spring discharge by 26·28%. This will significantly alleviate the imbalance between water supply and demand in both its quantity and temporal distribution in the middle and lower reaches. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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