Effect of ENSO on annual maximum floods and volume over threshold in the southwestern region of Iran

In this paper, the effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the annual maximum flood (AMF) and volume over threshold (VOT) in two major neighbouring river basins in southwest Iran are investigated. The basins are located upstream of the Dez and Karun-I dams and cover over 40?000 km² in total area. The effects of ENSO on the frequency, magnitude and severity (frequency times magnitude) of flood characteristics over the March–April period were analysed. ENSO indices were also correlated with both AMF and VOT. The results indicate that, in the Dez and Karun basins, the El Niño phenomenon intensifies March–April floods compared with neutral conditions. The opposite is true in La Niña conditions. The degree of the effect is more intense in the El Niño period.     

Large-scale climate teleconnections with South Korean streamflow variability

ABSTRACT

Leading patterns of observed seasonal extreme and mean streamflow on the Korean peninsula were estimated using an empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) technique. In addition, statistical correlations on a seasonal basis were calculated using correlation and regression analyses between the leading streamflow patterns and various climate indices based on atmospheric–ocean circulation. The spatio-temporal patterns of the leading EOT modes for extreme and mean streamflow indicate an upstream mode for the Han River, with increasing trends in summer, and a downstream mode for the Nakdong River, with oscillations mainly on inter-decadal time scales in winter. The tropical ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) forcing for both extreme and mean streamflow is coherently associated with summer to winter streamflow patterns. The western North Pacific monsoon has a negative correlation with winter streamflow variability, and tropical cyclone indices also exhibit significant positive correlation with autumn streamflow. Leading patterns of autumn and winter streamflow time series show predictability up to two seasons in advance from the Pacific sea-surface temperatures.     

QANAT SYSTEMS IN IRAN

Abstract

A fuzzy rule-based technique is used for modelling the relationship between climatic forcing and droughts in a Central/Eastern European country, Hungary. Two types of climatic forcing'called premises'are considered: atmospheric circulation patterns (CP) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both the Hess-Brezowsky CP types and ENSO events influence the occurrence of droughts, but the ENSO signal is relatively weak in a statistical sense. The fuzzy rule-based approach is able to learn the high space—time variability of monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and results in a proper reproduction of the empirical frequency distributions. The “engine” of the approach, the fuzzy rules, are ascertained from a subset called the learning set of the observed time series of premises (monthly CP frequencies and Southern Oscillation Index) and PDSI response. Then an independent subset, the validation set, is used to check how the application of fuzzy rules reproduces the observed PDSI.     

Hydrological drought in the west of Iran and possible association with large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns

Drought is a slow‐onset, creeping natural hazard which is an inevitable part of normal climate fluctuation especially in arid and semiarid regions, and its variability can be explained in terms of large‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Standardized streamflow index (SSFI) was utilized to characterize hydrological drought in the west of Iran for the hydrological years of 1969–1970 to 2008–2009. The linkage of atmospheric circulation patterns (ENSO, NAO) to hydrological drought was also used to reveal relations of climate variability affecting hydrological drought. River discharges exhibited negative anomalies during the warm phase of ENSO (El Niño) which caused the extreme and severe droughts in the study area, being strongest during the hydrological years of 2007–2008 and 2008–2009. The analysis also indicated the teleconnection impact of ENSO on the hydrological drought severity in the first half of the hydrological year especially between November and March. Moreover, the concurrent and lag correlations revealed a weak relationship between the SSFI drought severity and the NAO index. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of lagged correlations between solar cycles and hydrosphere components towards sub-decadal forecasts of streamflows in the Western USA

Trade winds localized within the Western Equatorial Pacific express lagged and statistically significant correlations to sunspot numbers as well as to streamflow in rivers of the Southern Rocky Mountains. Both correlation sets were integrated in a linear regression analysis to produce relatively accurate sub-decadal streamflow forecasts for an annual and a 5-year average. In comparison to the autocorrelation technique, the prototyped method yielded the highest correlations, the highest goodness-of-fit scores, and the lowest root mean squared errors, for both the 5-year average and the annual average assignments. Of all of the cases examined, the highest Kolmogorov-Smirnov test scores between observation and prediction were found for the single solar-based forecast 5 years in advance for the 60-month average streamflow of the Animas River in New Mexico.     

Study of indices for drought characterization in KBK districts in Orissa (India)

Drought is a temporary, random and regional climatic phenomenon, originating due to lack of precipitation leading to water deficit and causing economic loss. Success in drought alleviation depends on how well droughts are defined and their severity quantified. A quantitative definition identifies the beginning, end, spatial extent and the severity of drought. Among the available indices, no single index is capable of fully describing all the physical characteristics of drought. Therefore, in most cases it is useful and necessary to consider several indices, examine their sensitivity and accuracy, and investigate for correlation among them. In this study, the geographical information system‐based Spatial and Time Series Information Modeling (SPATSIM) and Daily Water Resources Assessment Modeling (DWRAM) software were used for drought analysis on monthly and daily bases respectively and its spatial distribution in both dry and wet years. SPATSIM utilizes standardized precipitation index (SPI), effective drought index (EDI), deciles index and departure from long‐term mean and median; and DWRAM employs only EDI. The analysis of data from the Kalahandi and Nuapada districts of Orissa (India) revealed that (a) droughts in this region occurred with a frequency of once in every 3 to 4 years, (b) droughts occurred in the year when the ratio of annual rainfall to potential evapotranspiration (Pae/PET) was less than 0·6, (c) EDI better represented the droughts in the area than any other index; (d) all SPI, EDI and annual deviation from the mean showed a similar trend of drought severity. The comparison of all indices and results of analysis led to several useful and pragmatic inferences in understanding the drought attributes of the study area. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rainfall and streamflow response to El Niño Southern Oscillation: a case study in a semiarid catchment,Australia

Abstract

This paper aims to compare the shift in frequency distribution and skill of seasonal climate forecasting of both streamflow and rainfall in eastern Australia based on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) Phase system. Recent advances in seasonal forecasting of climate variables have highlighted opportunities for improving decision making in natural resources management. Forecasting of rainfall probabilities for different regions in Australia is available, but the use of similar forecasts for water resource supply has not been developed. The use of streamflow forecasts may provide better information for decision-making in irrigation supply and flow management for improved ecological outcomes. To examine the relative efficacy of seasonal forecasting of streamflow and rainfall, the shift in probability distributions and the forecast skill were evaluated using the Wilcoxon rank-sum test and the linear error in probability space (LEPS) skill score, respectively, at three river gauging stations in the Border Rivers Catchment of the Murray-Darling Basin in eastern Australia. A comparison of rainfall and streamflow distributions confirms higher statistical significance in the shift of streamflow distribution than that in rainfall distribution. Moreover, streamflow distribution showed greater skill of forecasting with 0–3 month lead time, compared to rainfall distribution.     

Teleconnections between oceanic–atmospheric indices and drought over Iran using quantile regressions

ABSTRACT

In this research, the Bayesian quantile regression model is applied to investigate the teleconnections between large oceanic–atmospheric indices and drought standardized precipitation index (SPI) in Iran. The 12-month SPI time series from 138 synoptic stations for 1952–2014 were selected as the drought index. Three oceanic–atmospheric indices, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation Index (MEI), were selected as covariates. The results show that NAO has the weakest impact on drought in different quantiles and different regions in Iran. La Niña conditions amplified droughts through all SPI quantiles in western, Caspian Sea coastal regions and southern regions. The positive phase of MEI significantly modulates low SPI quantiles (i.e. drought conditions) throughout the Zagros region, Caspian Sea coastal regions and southern regions. The study shows that the effect of large oceanic–atmospheric indices have heterogeneous impacts on extreme dry and wet conditions.     

中东太平洋热带辐合带降水统计特征及其与厄尔尼诺的相关性

利用GPCP（Global Precipitation Climatology Project）与CMAP（CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation）降水资料以及欧洲天气预报中心月平均SST（Sea Surface Temperature）资料,统计分析了中东太平洋热带辐合带（Centre and Eastern Pacific ITCZ,CEP-ITCZ）降水在两类厄尔尼诺年的基本特征及其与两类厄尔尼诺的相关性.结果表明：在普通年份,CEP-ITCZ平均位置约为7.6°N,强度7.25 mm/day,东部型厄尔尼诺年位置偏南约2.9°,强度增强1.9 mm/day;而中部型厄尔尼诺年位置偏南仅有0.2°,强度增强1.7 mm/day.不同Niño海区对CEP-ITCZ位置与强度的影响具有显著差异,与CEP-ITCZ位置相关性最大的海区为超前一个月的Niño 3海区,而与CEP-ITCZ强度相关性最大的海区则为超前一个月的Niño 3.4（8月-次年2月）或Niño 4（3-7月）海区,影响CEP-ITCZ位置的海区主要为东太平洋,影响CEP-ITCZ强度的海区则为中太平洋.此外,CEP-ITCZ位置和强度的异常对SST异常的敏感性均在4月份达到最强,11月份达到最弱.     

Correlation between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and precipitation in South‐east Asia and the Pacific region

The relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events versus precipitation anomalies, and the response of seasonal precipitation to El Niño and La Niña events were investigated for 30 basins that represent a range of climatic types throughout South‐east Asia and the Pacific region. The teleconnection between ENSO and the hydroclimate is tested using both parametric and non‐parametric approaches, and the lag correlations between precipitation anomalies versus the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) several months earlier, as well as the coherence between SOI and precipitation anomalies are estimated. The analysis shows that dry conditions tend to be associated with El Niño in the southern zone, and part of the middle zone in the study area. The link between precipitation anomalies and ENSO is statistically significant in the southern zone and part of the middle zone of the study area, but significant correlation was not observed in the northern zone. Patterns of precipitation response may differ widely among basins, and even the response of a given river basin to individual ENSO events also may be changeable. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of ENSO events on sediment production in a large coastal basin in northern Peru

Although the importance of ENSO on hydrological anomalies has been recognized, variations in sediment fluxes caused by these extreme events are poorly documented. The effect of ENSO is not limited to changes in sediment mobilization. Since ENSO events can affect terrestrial ecosystems, they may have important effects on sediment production and transport in river basins over time spans that are longer than the duration of the event itself. The Catamayo‐Chira basin is an interesting casestudy for investigating these geomorphic implications. The objectives were: (i) to study the effect of ENSO on stream flow and sediment yields in the basin, (ii) to investigate if ENSO events affect sediment yields in the post‐ENSO period and (iii) to understand which factors control the ENSO and post‐ENSO basin response. During strong negative ENSO periods, mean annual stream flow discharge at the inlet of the Poechos reservoir in the lower basin was 5.4 times higher than normal annual discharges, while average sediment fluxes exceeded those of normal years by a factor of about 11. In two heavily affected periods, 45.9% of the total sediment yield in the 29 years observation period was generated. Sediment fluxes in the post‐ENSO period are lower than expected, which proves post‐ENSO event dynamics are significantly different from pre‐event dynamics. Our analysis indicates the increase of vegetation growth in the lower basin is not the main reason explaining considerable sediment flux decrease in post‐ENSO periods. During strong ENSO events, sediment in alluvial stores in the lower part of the basin is removed due to enlarging and deepening of channels. In post‐ENSO periods, normal discharges and persisting sediment supplies from the middle/upper basin lead to river aggradation and storage of large amounts of sediment in alluvial plains. The decrease in sediment export will last for several years until the equilibrium is re‐established. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国华北雾霾天气与超强El Ni?o事件的相关性研究

2015年11—12月,全国接连发生七次大范围、持续性雾霾天气过程,其中,11月27日—12月1日的雾霾天气过程持续时间长达五天,成为2015年最强的一次重污染天气过程;12月19-25日重度雾霾再次发展,影响面积一度达到35.2万km~2.本文利用多种数据资料通过个例对比和历史统计详细分析了超强El Ni?o背景下雾霾天气频发的天气气候条件.其结果清楚表明:2015年11—12月欧亚中高纬度以纬向环流为主,东亚冬季风偏弱,使得影响我国的冷空气活动偏少,我国中东部大部地区对流层低层盛行异常偏南风,大气相对湿度明显偏大,并且大气层结稳定,对流层底层存在明显逆温.上述大气环流条件使得污染物的水平和垂直扩散条件差,因此在有一定污染排放的情况下,造成了重度雾霾天气过程的频发.由此,超强El Ni?o事件所导致的大尺度大气环流异常是我国中东部,尤其华北地区冬季雾霾天气频发的重要原因之一.     

Groundwater level trends and recharge event characterization using historical observed data in semi-arid Chile

ABSTRACT

Groundwater is an important resource in semi-arid Chile to meet local social, economic and environmental water demands. Historical ground water level (GWL) data (1986–2014) in the Coquimbo Region were analysed to characterize short and long-term alluvial aquifer dynamics. Long-term trends were assessed using a seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test, which indicated that more than 80% of the time series exhibit a negative trend. Short-term analysis using cross-correlation provided information on recharge origin and its spatial pattern. Runoff and GWL are highly correlated depending on elevation, signifying that stream to aquifer flow is an important recharge process at higher altitudes. Long-term recharge behaviour was characterized using time-frequency wavelet power spectra. The results show significant amplitude of the 5-year recharge period for GWL, which is driven by a 5-year El Niño index periodicity. Such results provide key information of the spatiotemporal functioning of aquifers.     

Conceptual model about the interaction between El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in far west equatorial Pacific

Interaction between the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in far west equatorial Pacific (QBOWP) and the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is studied using a new conceptual model. In this conceptual model, the QBOWP effects on ENSO are achieved through two ways: (1) the oceanic Kelvin wave along equatorial Pacific, and (2) the Atmospheric Walker Circulation anomaly, while ENSO effects on QBOWP can be accomplished by the atmospheric Walker Circulation anomaly. Diagnosis analysis of the model results shows that the Atmospheric bridge (Walker circulation) plays a more important role in interaction between the ENSO and QBOWP than the oceanic bridge (oceanic Kelvin wave along equatorial Pacific); It is found that by the interaction of the ENSO and QBOWP, a free ENSO oscillation with 3–5 years period could be substituted by a oscillation with the quasi-biennial period, and the dominant period of SST anomaly and wind anomaly in the far west equatorial Pacific tends to be prolonged with enhanced ENSO forcing. Generally, the multi-period variability in the coupled Atmosphere-Ocean System in the Tropical Pacific can be achieved through the interaction between ENSO and QBOWP.     

Conceptual model about the interaction between El Ni(n)o/ Southern Oscillation and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in far west equatorial Pacific

Interaction between the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in far west equatorial Pacific (QBOWP) and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is studied using a new conceptual model. In this conceptual model, the QBOWP effects on ENSO are achieved through two ways: (1) the oceanic Kelvin wave along equatorial Pacific, and (2) the Atmospheric Walker Circulation anomaly, while ENSO effects on QBOWP can be accomplished by the atmospheric Walker Circulation anomaly. Diagnosis analysis of the model results shows that the Atmospheric bridge (Walker circulation) plays a more important role in interaction between the ENSO and QBOWP than the oceanic bridge (oceanic Kelvin wave along equatorial Pacific); It is found that by the interaction of the ENSO and QBOWP, a free ENSO oscillation with 3-5 years period could be substituted by a oscillation with the quasi-biennial period, and the dominant period of SST anomaly and wind anomaly in the far west equatorial Pacific tends to be prolonged with enhanced ENSO forcing. Generally, the multi-period variability in the coupled Atmosphere-Ocean System in the Tropical Pacific can be achieved through the interaction between ENSO and QBOWP.     

利用COSMIC掩星资料研究对流层/下平流层大气比湿对ONI指数的响应

本文利用2006年6月至2014年6月COSMIC掩星观测的水汽廓线, 分析了对流层/下平流层(TLS)比湿信号对ENSO的响应.在数据处理中, 将COSMIC掩星水汽廓线计算得到的全球比湿数据内插为1000~30 hPa区间水平分辨率为5°×5°的三维格网, 在各等压面上求取各格网点去除年/月际信号后的比湿月异常值.然后在对比湿月异常时间序列低通滤波的基础上, 进行经验正交分解(EOF)得到比湿主成分, 并对该主成分信号进行二项式平滑; 接下来将平滑后的主成分信号与反映ENSO活动的ONI指数进行相关处理, 得到各等压面主成分信号相对于ONI指数的相关系数及对应的时间延迟.论文分析了包括Niño-3.4的5个代表性区域的TLS比湿异常主成分信号, 结果表明:在各区域, 采用本文先低通滤波再EOF分解的处理方法获得的TLS比湿异常主成分信号与ONI指数均有很强相关性, 对流层相关系数绝对值达0.8以上, 低平流层高于0.7, 在300~200 hPa的上对流层达到峰值; 各等压面上比湿异常主成分信号相对于ONI指数的时间延迟不尽相同, 在对流层中比湿异常主成分信号普遍滞后于ONI指数1~6个月; 在各区域, 比湿异常主成分与ONI指数相关系数绝对值达到最大的等压面都接近250 hPa, 最大相关系数绝对值均达到0.9以上.进一步对全球250 hPa等压面比湿异常主成分与ONI指数相关性的分析表明:两者强相关的区域主要集中在热带; 在这些强相关区域, 比湿异常主成分相对于ONI主要表现为滞后, 且相关系数越大, 相应的时间延迟越短.

     

Snow and climate trends and their impact on seasonal runoff and hydrological drought types in selected mountain catchments in Central Europe

ABSTRACT

This study investigates changes in seasonal runoff and low flows related to changes in snow and climate variables in mountainous catchments in Central Europe. The period 1966–2012 was used to assess trends in climate and streamflow characteristics using a modified Mann–Kendall test. Droughts were classified into nine classes according to key snow and climate drivers. The results showed an increase in air temperature, decrease in snowfall fraction and snow depth, and changes in precipitation. This resulted in increased winter runoff and decreased late spring runoff due to earlier snowmelt, especially at elevations from 1000 to 1500 m a.s.l. Most of the hydrological droughts were connected to either low air temperatures and precipitation during winter or high winter air temperatures which caused below-average snow storages. Our findings show that, besides precipitation and air temperature, snow plays an important role in summer streamflow and drought occurrence in selected mountainous catchments.     

Forest operations,tree species composition and decline in rainfall explain runoff changes in the Nacimiento experimental catchments,south central Chile

Few long-term studies have explored how intensively managed short rotation forest plantations interact with climate variability. We examine how prolonged severe drought and forest operations affect runoff in 11 experimental catchments on private corporate forest land near Nacimiento in south central Chile over the period 2008–2019. The catchments (7.7–414 ha) contain forest plantations of exotic fast-growing species (Pinus radiata, Eucalyptus spp.) at various stages of growth in a Mediterranean climate (mean long-term annual rainfall = 1381 mm). Since 2010, a drought, unprecedented in recent history, has reduced rainfall at Nacimiento by 20%, relative to the long-term mean. Pre-drought runoff ratios were <0.2 under 8-year-old Eucalyptus; >0.4 under 21-year-old Radiata pine and >0.8 where herbicide treatments had controlled vegetation for 2 years in 38% of the catchment area. Early in the study period, clearcutting of Radiata pine (85%–95% of catchment area) increased streamflow by 150 mm as compared with the year before harvest, while clearcutting and partial cuts of Eucalyptus did not increase streamflow. During 2008–2019, the combination of emerging drought and forestry treatments (replanting with Eucalyptus after clearcutting of Radiata pine and Eucalyptus) reduced streamflow by 400–500 mm, and regeneration of previously herbicide-treated vegetation combined with growth of Eucalyptus plantations reduced streamflow by 1125 mm (87% of mean annual precipitation 2010–2019). These results from one of the most comprehensive forest catchment studies in the world on private industrial forest land indicate that multiple decades of forest management have reduced deep soil moisture reservoirs. This effect has been exacerbated by drought and conversion from Radiata pine to Eucalyptus, apparently largely eliminating subsurface supply to streamflow. The findings reveal tradeoffs between wood production and water supply, provide lessons for adapting forest management to the projected future drier climate in Chile, and underscore the need for continued experimental work in managed forest plantations.     

Using standardized indicators to analyse dry/wet conditions and their application for monitoring drought/floods: a study in the Logone catchment,Lake Chad basin

The standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized streamflow index (SSI) were used to analyse dry/wet conditions in the Logone catchment over a 50-year period (1951–2000). The SPI analysis at different time scales showed several meteorological drought events ranging from moderate to extreme; and SSI analysis showed that wetter conditions prevailed in the catchment from 1950 to 1970 interspersed with a few hydrological drought events. Overall, the results indicate that both the Sudano and Sahelian zones are equally prone to droughts and floods. However, the Sudano zone is more sensitive to drier conditions, while the Sahelian zone is sensitive to wetter conditions. Correlation analysis between SPI and SSI at multiple time scales revealed that the catchment has a low response to rainfall at short time scales, though this progressively changed as the time scale increased, with strong correlations (≥0.70) observed after 12 months. Analysis using individual monthly series showed that the response time reduced to 3 months in October.     

Relationship between historical sea-surface temperature variability and climate change-induced coral mortality in the western Indian Ocean

Many of the world’s coral reefs suffered high coral mortality during the 1998 ENSO, with the highest mortality in the western Indian Ocean (WIO). A meta-analysis of field data on change in coral cover across the 1998 ENSO event was conducted for 36 major reef areas in the WIO, and relationship of the change with the historical sea-surface temperature (SST) variability investigated. WIO reefs were categorized into three major SST groups of differing coral cover change. Cover change was negatively associated with standard deviation (SD) SST until about SD 2.3, with increasing flatness of the SST frequency distributions. It increased with further increase in SD as the SST distributions became strongly bimodal in the Arabian/Persian Gulf area. The study indicates that environmental resistance/tolerance to extreme anomalous events could be predicted and management priorities directed accordingly for a warmer and more variable future climate.