Climate sensitivity of water use by riparian woodlands at landscape scales

Semi-arid riparian woodlands face threats from increasing extractive water demand and climate change in dryland landscapes worldwide. Improved landscape-scale understanding of riparian woodland water use (evapotranspiration, ET) and its sensitivity to climate variables is needed to strategically manage water resources, as well as to create successful ecosystem conservation and restoration plans for potential climate futures. In this work, we assess the spatial and temporal variability of Cottonwood (Populus fremontii)-Willow (Salix gooddingii) riparian gallery woodland ET and its relationships to vegetation structure and climate variables for 80 km of the San Pedro River corridor in southeastern Arizona, USA, between 2014 and 2019. We use a novel combination of publicly available remote sensing, climate and hydrological datasets: cloud-based Landsat thermal remote sensing data products for ET (Google Earth Engine EEFlux), Landsat multispectral imagery and field data-based calibrations to vegetation structure (leaf-area index, LAI), and open-source climate and hydrological data. We show that at landscape scales, daily ET rates (6–10 mm day⁻¹) and growing season ET totals (400–1,400 mm) matched rates of published field data, and modelled reach-scale average LAI (0.80–1.70) matched lower ranges of published field data. Over 6 years, the spatial variability of total growing season ET (CV = 0.18) exceeded that of temporal variability (CV = 0.10), indicating the importance of reach-scale vegetation and hydrological conditions for controlling ET dynamics. Responses of ET to climate differed between perennial and intermittent-flow stream reaches. At perennial-flow reaches, ET correlated significantly with temperature, whilst at intermittent-flow sites ET correlated significantly with rainfall and stream discharge. Amongst reaches studied in detail, we found positive but differing logarithmic relationships between LAI and ET. By documenting patterns of high spatial variability of ET at basin scales, these results underscore the importance of accurately accounting for differences in woodland vegetation structure and hydrological conditions for assessing water-use requirements. Results also suggest that the climate sensitivity of ET may be used as a remote indicator of subsurface water resources relative to vegetation demand, and an indicator for informing conservation management priorities.     

Prediction of vegetation anomalies over an inland river basin in north‐western China

Vegetation cover plays an important role in linking the atmosphere, water, and land and is deemed as a key indicator in the terrestrial ecological system. Therefore, it is of great importance to monitor vegetation dynamics and understand the mechanisms of vegetation change, including that driven by climate change. This study examines (a) the evolution of vegetation dynamics over the Heihe River Basin in the typical arid zone in north‐western China using nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and Thiel Sen's slope; (b) the relationships between remotely sensed vegetation indices (normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI] and enhanced vegetation index [EVI]) and hydroclimatic variables based on correlation analysis; and (c) the prediction of vegetation anomalies using a multiple linear regression model. For the analysis, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer NDVI/EVI product and the gridded daily meteorological data at a spatial resolution of 0.125° over the period 2001–2010 are considered. The results indicate that vegetation cover improved over a large proportion during 2001–2010, with a significant trend towards warm and wet, characterized by an increase in average annual temperature and precipitation by 0.042 °C/year and 5.8 mm/year, respectively. We test the feasibility of NDVI and EVI in quantifying the responses of vegetation anomaly to climate change and develop a statistical model to predict vegetation dynamics in the basin. The NDVI‐based model is found to be more reliable than the EVI‐based model, partly due to the vegetation characteristics and geomorphologic properties of the study region. The proposed model performs well when there is no lag time between meteorological factors and vegetation indices for grassland and cropland, whereas 1‐month lead time prediction is found to be best for forest. The soil water content is introduced as an extra explanatory variable, which effectively improves the prediction accuracy for different land use types. In general, the predictive ability of the proposed model is stable and satisfactory, and the model can provide useful early warning information for regional water resources management under changing climate.     

Effects of land-use/cover change on hydrological processes using a GIS/RS-based integrated hydrological model: case study of the East River,China

Abstract

An integrated model, combining a surface energy balance system, an LAI-based interception model and a distributed monthly water balance model, was developed to predict hydrological impacts of land-use/land-cover change (LUCC) in the East River basin, China, with the aid of GIS/RS. The integrated model is a distributed model that not only accounts for spatial variations in basin terrain, rainfall and soil moisture, but also considers spatial and temporal variation of vegetation cover and evapotranspiration (ET), in particular, thus providing a powerful tool for investigating the hydrological impact of LUCC. The model was constructed using spatial data on topography, soil types and vegetation characteristics together with time series of precipitation from 170 stations in the basin. The model was calibrated and validated based on river discharge data from three stations in the basin for 21 years. The calibration and validation results suggested that the model is suitable for application in the basin. The results show that ET has a positive relationship with LAI (leaf area index), while runoff has a negative relationship with LAI in the same climatic zone that can be described by the surface energy balance and water balance equation. It was found that deforestation would cause an increase in annual runoff and a decrease in annual ET in southern China. Monthly runoff for different land-cover types was found to be inversely related to ET. Also, for most of the scenarios, and particularly for grassland and cropland, the most significant changes occurred in the rainy season, indicating that deforestation would cause a significant increase in monthly runoff in that season in the East River basin. These results are important for water resources management and environmental change monitoring.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz     

Quantifying the impact of landscape changes on hydrological variables in the alpine and cold region using hydrological model and remote sensing data

Quantifying the impact of landscape on hydrological variables is essential for the sustainable development of water resources. Understanding how landscape changes influence hydrological variables will greatly enhance the understanding of hydrological processes. Important vegetation parameters are considered in this study by using remote sensing data and VIC-CAS model to analyse the impact of landscape changes on hydrology in upper reaches of the Shule River Basin (URSLB). The results show there are differences in the runoff generation of landscape both in space and time. With increasing altitude, the runoff yields increased, with approximately 79.9% of the total runoff generated in the high mountains (4200–5900 m), and mainly consumed in the mid-low mountain region. Glacier landscape produced the largest runoff yields (24.9% of the total runoff), followed by low-coverage grassland (LG; 22.5%), alpine cold desert (AL; 19.6%), mid-coverage grassland (MG; 15.6%), bare land (12.5%), high-coverage grassland (HG; 4.5%) and shrubbery (0.4%). The relative capacity of runoff generation by landscapes, from high to low, was the glaciers, AL, LG, HG, MG, shrubbery and bare land. Furthermore, changes in landscapes cause hydrological variables changes, including evapotranspiration, runoff and baseflow. The study revealed that HG, MG, and bare land have a positive impact on evapotranspiration and a negative impact on runoff and baseflow, whereas AL and LG have a positive impact on runoff and baseflow and a negative impact on evapotranspiration. In contrast, glaciers have a positive impact on runoff. After the simulation in four vegetation scenarios, we concluded that the runoff regulation ability of grassland is greater than that of bare land. The grassland landscape is essential since it reduced the flood peak and conserved the soil and water.     

Sensitivity of streamflow from a Himalayan catchment to plausible changes in land cover and climate

Global climate change will likely increase temperature and variation in precipitation in the Himalayas, modifying both supply of and demand for water. This study assesses combined impacts of land‐cover and climate changes on hydrological processes and a rainfall‐to‐streamflow buffer indicator of watershed function using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Kejie watershed in the eastern Himalayas. The Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3) was used for two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios (A2 and B2), for 2010–2099. Four land‐cover change scenarios increase forest, grassland, crops, or urban land use, respectively, reducing degraded land. The SWAT model predicted that downstream water resources will decrease in the short term but increase in the long term. Afforestation and expansion in cropland will probably increase actual evapotranspiration (ET) and reduce annual streamflow but will also, through increased infiltration, reduce the overland flow component of streamflow and increase groundwater release. An expansion in grassland will decrease actual ET, increase annual streamflow and groundwater release, while decreasing overland flow. Urbanization will result in increases in streamflow and overland flow and reductions in groundwater release and actual ET. Land‐cover change dominated over effects on streamflow of climate change in the short and middle terms. The predicted changes in buffer indicator for land‐use plus climate‐change scenarios reach up to 50% of the current (and future) range of inter‐annual variability. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling and analysis of the impact of irrigation on local arid climate over northwest China

This study focuses on how irrigation processes affect local climate over arid areas. The chosen study area is northwest China, a typical arid region where three dominant land‐use types are irrigated cropland, grassland, and desert. Observational analysis indicates that the highest precipitation, the coolest surface temperatures, and the slowest warming trend are seen over irrigated cropland from 1979 to 2005. The single column atmospheric model (SCAM), developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), was used to investigate and better understand the differences in long‐term climate conditions and change over the above three land‐use types. The results indicate that local climate conditions are predominantly controlled by large‐scale forcing in this arid region and that local land surface forcing related to vegetation cover change and irrigation processes also has a significant impact. This study strongly suggests that a realistic climate forecast for this region can be achieved only with both accurate large‐scale and local climate forcing. The irrigated cropland of the region generates stronger evaporation that cools the surface and slows the warming trend more than does the evaporation from the natural grassland and desert. Stronger evaporation also significantly increases precipitation, potentially alleviating the stress of irrigation demands in arid regions. A series of sensitivity SCAM simulations indicate that a drier and warmer climate occurs with decreasing vegetation cover in the irrigated cropland region. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

黄河流域多时空尺度土地利用与水质的关系

为探究不同时空尺度土地利用与水质的相互关系,以黄河流域为研究对象,基于2018年河流水质与土地利用数据,提取3种空间尺度(1000 m河段缓冲区、500 m河岸带缓冲区、子流域)的景观格局指数,结合4个季节河流水质指标,采用冗余分析方法定量探讨土地利用对河流水质的多时空尺度影响,获得水质资源管理最有效的时空尺度.结果表...     

Evapotranspiration models of different complexity for multiple land cover types

A comparison between half‐hourly and daily measured and computed evapotranspiration (ET) using three models of different complexity, namely, the Priestley–Taylor (P‐T), the reference Penman–Monteith (P‐M) and the Common Land Model (CLM), was conducted using three AmeriFlux sites under different land cover and climate conditions (i.e. arid grassland, temperate forest and subhumid cropland). Using the reference P‐M model with a semiempirical soil moisture function to adjust for water‐limiting conditions yielded ET estimates in reasonable agreement with the observations [root mean square error (RMSE) of 64–87 W m^?2 for half‐hourly and RMSE of 0.5–1.9 mm day^?1 for daily] and similar to the complex Common Land Model (RMSE of 60–94 W m^?2 for half‐hourly and RMSE of 0.4–2.1 mm day^?1 for daily) at the grassland and cropland sites. However, the semiempirical soil moisture function was not applicable particularly for the P‐T model at the forest site, suggesting that adjustments to key model variables may be required when applied to diverse land covers. On the other hand, under certain land cover/environmental conditions, the use of microwave‐derived soil moisture information was found to be a reliable metric of regional moisture conditions to adjust simple ET models for water‐limited cases. Further studies are needed to evaluate the utility of the simplified methods for different landscapes. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1974-2017年洪湖湿地自然保护区景观格局演变及驱动力分析

利用Landsat系列遥感影像数据（1974、1979、1984、1990、1996、2001、2006、2009、2014和2017年）解译得到的土地利用/土地覆盖变化（LUCC）结合研究区44年的气温、降水量、水位等气象水文数据,构建LUCC经验统计模型和计算景观格局指数,探讨1974-2017年洪湖国家级自然保护区景观格局变化的主要驱动因素.研究结果表明：土地利用强度指数由1974年的207增加到2017年的249.36,人类开发利用湖滨带的程度增强,到2017年约有30%的自然湿地转化为坑塘、农田和滩地及建设用地.不同地表覆盖类型的景观格局指数均发生了较大变化,2000年以后湖滨带逐渐形成了以养殖为主的低矮围景观.总体上景观趋于破碎化、连通性降低、稳定性变弱.洪湖湿地自然保护区土地利用强度指数与景观格局综合指数呈较显著的正相关,两者的相关系数为0.84,土地利用强度增加则景观更加破碎、斑块之间的连接程度减弱、区域的景观聚集度下降和景观异质性增加.总体而言,洪湖湿地自然保护区受人为干扰影响明显,开展封湖育草自然恢复与建立植被恢复示范区相结合,构建自湖滨至湖心的梯度变化完整的湿生植被-挺水植被-漂浮植被-浮叶植被-沉水植被的水生植物群落,退耕还草、退垸还湖、修复湖滨带植被,大幅度提高洪湖的自净能力,增加其水生植物多样性,实现湿地的有效修复,改善其结构和功能,维系洪湖湿地生态系统的平衡.     

Response of vegetation dynamics to climatic variables across a precipitation gradient in the Northeast China Transect

This study investigated the influence of climatic variables on the spatio-temporal variation of vegetation growth using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data and climate data from 2000 to 2013 in the Northeast China Transect. Partial correlation and linear regression methods were applied to quantify the response of the growing season NDVI to climatic variables. Gradient analysis was used to investigate how the response changes across the precipitation gradient over the transect. The results show that, at the spatial scale, NDVI increases with precipitation in grassland, and the spatial sensitivity is 0.001/mm. At the temporal scale, grassland NDVI is less correlated with precipitation in wet areas where precipitation exceeds a threshold of 250 mm. The temporal sensitivity of grassland NDVI to precipitation is 0.0003–0.0006/mm. Positive correlations between NDVI and temperature dominate in forest areas, and forest NDVI is sensitive to temperature by 0.06–0.12/°C.     

Evapotranspiration is resilient in the face of land cover and climate change in a humid temperate catchment

In temperate humid catchments, evapotranspiration returns more than half of the annual precipitation to the atmosphere, thereby determining the balance available to recharge groundwaters and support stream flow and lake levels. Changes in evapotranspiration rates and, therefore, catchment hydrology could be driven by changes in land use or climate. Here, we examine the catchment water balance over the past 50 years for a catchment in southwest Michigan covered by cropland, grassland, forest, and wetlands. Over the study period, about 27% of the catchment has been abandoned from row‐crop agriculture to perennial vegetation and about 20% of the catchment has reverted to deciduous forest, and the climate has warmed by 1.14 °C. Despite these changes in land use, the precipitation and stream discharge, and by inference catchment‐scale evapotranspiration, have been stable over the study period. The remarkably stable rates of evapotranspirative water loss from the catchment across a period of significant land cover change suggest that rainfed annual crops and perennial vegetation do not differ greatly in evapotranspiration rates, and this is supported by measurements of evapotranspiration from various vegetation types based on soil water monitoring in the same catchment. Compensating changes in the other meteorological drivers of evaporative water demand besides air temperature—wind speed, atmospheric humidity, and net radiation—are also possible but cannot be evaluated due to insufficient local data across the 50‐year period. Regardless of the explanation, this study shows that the water balance of this landscape has been resilient in the face of both land cover and climate change over the past 50 years.     

Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Evapotranspiration and Driving Factors in the Bosten Lake Watershed,China

The Bosten Lake watershed investigated in this study has seen significant land cover and climate change. The spatiotemporal relationship between evapotranspiration (ET) and environmental factors remain unclear. In this study, trend analysis and correlation methods are applied to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of ET and the relationship between ET and its driving factors using remotely sensed ET data and measured climate data between 2001 and 2018. During the study period, high values of ET primarily occurr in the wetlands of the plain area and the mid‐elevation mountain areas. The ET values show a significantly increasing trend in the different vegetation types due to climate change and other factors. The ET change trend in the study area is in the range of ?13.4 to ≈35.9 mm per year; the desert area exhibits a significant decrease and most of the mountain areas show a significantly increasing trend. ET is significantly correlated with land surface temperature, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and solar radiation. The dominant factor affecting ET is NDVI, accounting for 15.2% of the study area. The results of this study highlight the need for appropriate land‐use strategies for managing water resources in arid land ecosystems.     

Assessment of the sensitivity of the landscape in a sample area in Hungary for climatic variability

In the northeastern part of Hungary near the township of Tokaj a landscape research project has been performed in a 9 km² area. The aim of this study is to examine the possibilities of expressing the climatic sensitivity of the given small landscape unit by analysing the capabilities of such a small sample area and synthésizing the data obtained. The landscape analysis consisted of field and laboratory measurements, theoretical calculations, analyses of maps, as well as the construction of thematic maps (on the scale of 1:10000) and cartograms. In view of climatic sensitivity four of the landscape factors were regarded as crucial: (1) the water budget of the soils, (2) the thickness of the soils and loose sediments, (3) insolation, and (4) land use. By synthesis of these factors a five-grade climatic sensitivity map was produced. On the basis of the areal proportion of the different classes of sensitivity it was established that the study area is moderately sensitive to climate. Examination of the moisture content of soil clearly indicated different responses of the areas from the different sensitivity classes to changes in temperature and precipitation. The four main landscape factors selected proved to be useful in the rough delineation of the classes on the climatic sensitivity map. However, the use of the other landscape factors improved its accuracy.     

Coupled numerical–analytical approach to landscape evolution modeling

The Earth's topography is shaped by surface processes that operate on various scales. In particular, river processes control landscape dynamics over large length scales, whereas hillslope processes control the dynamics over smaller length scales. This scale separation challenges numerical treatments of landscape evolution that use space discretization. Large grid spacing cannot account for the dynamics of water divides that control drainage area competition, and erosion rate and slope distribution. Small grid spacing that properly accounts for divide dynamics is computationally inefficient when studying large domains. Here we propose a new approach for landscape evolution modeling that couples irregular grid‐based numerical solutions for the large‐scale fluvial dynamics and continuum‐based analytical solutions for the small‐scale fluvial and hillslope dynamics. The new approach is implemented in the landscape evolution model DAC (divide and capture). The geometrical and topological characteristics of DAC's landscapes show compatibility with those of natural landscapes. A comparative study shows that, even with large grid spacing, DAC predictions fit well an analytical solution for divide migration in the presence of horizontal advection of topography. In addition, DAC is used to study some outstanding problems in landscape evolution. (i) The time to steady‐state is investigated and simulations show that steady‐state requires much more time to achieve than predicted by fixed area calculations, due to divides migration and persistent reorganization of low‐order streams. (ii) Large‐scale stream captures in a strike‐slip environment are studied and show a distinct pattern of erosion rates that can be used to identify recent capture events. (iii) Three tectono‐climatic mechanisms that can lead to asymmetric mountains are studied. Each of the mechanisms produces a distinct morphology and erosion rate distribution. Application to the Southern Alps of New Zealand suggests that tectonic advection, precipitation gradients and non‐uniform tectonic uplift act together to shape the first‐order topography of this mountain range. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improving evapotranspiration estimation models through quantitative watershed parameter analysis and remote sensing applications

Numerous models had been developed to predict the annual evapotranspiration (ET) in vegetated lands across various spatial scales. Fu's (Scientia Atmospherica Sinica, 5, 23–31) and Zhang's (Water Resources Research, 37, 701–708) ET simulation models have emerged as highly effective and have been widely used. However, both formulas have the non-quantitative parameters (m in Fu's model and w in Zhang's model). Based on the collected 1789 samples from global long-term hydrological studies, this study discovered significant relations between m (or w) and vegetation coverage or greenness in collected catchments. Then, we used these relations to qualify the parameters in both Zhang's and Fu's models. Results show that the ET estimation accuracies of Fu's (or Zhang's) model are significantly improved by about 13.49 mm (or 6.74 mm) for grassland and cropland, 38.52 mm (or 29.84 mm) for forest and shrub land (coverage<40%), 19.74 mm (or 16.17 mm) for mixed land (coverage<40%), respectively. However, Zhang's model shows higher errors compared with Fu's model, especially in regions with high m (or w) values, such as those with dense vegetations or P/E₀ (annual precipitation to annual potential ET) smaller than 1.0. Additionally, this study also reveals that for regions with vegetation cover less than 40%, the annual ET is not only determined by vegetation types, but also relates to the sizes of vegetation-covered areas. Conversely, for regions with vegetation cover more than 40%, the annual ET is mainly determined by the vegetation density rather than vegetation types or vegetation coverage. Thus, linking m (or w) parameters with vegetation greenness allows leveraging remote sensing for forest management in data-scarce areas, safeguarding regional water resources. This study pioneers integrating vegetation-related indices with basin parameters, advocating for their crucial role in more effective hydrological modelling.     

Notable shifting in the responses of vegetation activity to climate change in China

The weakening relationship between inter-annual temperature variability and vegetation activity in the Northern Hemisphere over the last three decades has been reported by a recent study. However, how and to what extent vegetation activity responds to climate change in China is still unclear. We applied the Pearson correlation and partial correlation methods with a moving 15-y window to the GIMMS NDVI dataset from NOAA/AVHRR and observed climate data to examine the variation in the relationships between vegetation activity and climate variables. Results showed that there was an expanding negative response of vegetation growth to climate warming and a positive role of precipitation. The change patterns between NDVI and climate variables over vegetation types during the past three decades pointed an expending negative correlation between NDVI and temperature and a positive role of precipitation over most of the vegetation types (meadow, grassland, shrub, desert, cropland, and forest). Specifically, correlation between NDVI and temperature (P_NDVI-T) have shifted from positive to negative in most of the station of temperature-limited areas with evergreen broadleaf forests, whereas precipitation-limited temperate grassland and desert were characterized by a positive P_NDVI-P. This study contributes to ongoing investigations of the effects of climate change on vegetation activity. It is also of great importance for designing forest management strategies to cope with climate change.     

Multi‐process Late Quaternary landscape evolution modelling reveals lags in climate response over small spatial scales

Landscapes evolve in complex, non‐linear ways over Quaternary timespans. Integrated geomorphological field studies usually yield plausible hypotheses about timing and impact of process activity. Landscape Evolution Models (LEMs) have the potential to test and falsify these landscape evolution hypotheses. Despite this potential, LEMs have mainly been used with hypothetical data and rarely to simulate the evolution of an actual landscape. In this paper, we use a LEM (LAPSUS: LandscApe ProcesS modelling at mUlti dimensions and scaleS) to explore if it is possible to test and falsify conclusions of an earlier field study on 50 ka landscape evolution in Okhombe Valley, KwaZulu Natal, South Africa. In this LEM, five landscape processes interact without supervision: water driven erosion and deposition, creep, solifluction, biological weathering and frost weathering. Calibration matched model results to three types of qualitative fieldwork observations: individual process activity over time, relative process activity over time and net landscape changes over time. Results demonstrate that landscape evolution of the Okhombe valley can be plausibly simulated. A particularly interesting and persistent feature of model results are erosional and depositional phases that lag climatic drivers both by decades, and by several ka within a few hundred meters. The longer lag has not been reported for this spatial scale before and may be an effect of slow landscape‐soil‐vegetation feedbacks. The combined modelling and fieldwork results allow a more complete understanding of these responses to climate change and can fill in hiatuses in the stratigraphical record. Suggestions are made for methodological adaptations for future LEM studies. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

近30年长江下游升金湖湿地不同季节景观生态风险时空分析

以安徽省升金湖湿地为研究对象,使用1989年、1996年、2003年、2010年和2017年四季Landsat系列遥感数据,构建景观生态风险评价模型,计算不同季节景观生态风险指数,分析风险空间分布及其变化特征,并使用Pearson相关系数分析季节间、季节与年度间景观生态风险相关性.结果显示:(1)不同季节景观生态风险指数有显著差异,生态风险从高到低依次为夏季、冬季、秋季和春季,夏、冬季风险指数平均高出春、秋季37.03%.(2) 1989—2017年升金湖湿地景观生态风险指数明显增加,湖区内泥滩、草滩等重要景观类型极易受人类活动影响,逐渐由中风险、较高风险区转变成较高风险、高风险区,且人造表面与草滩面积与较高风险和高风险区面积呈现出一定的协同变化特征.总体上,升金湖湿地以较低景观生态风险和中景观生态风险为主,较高景观生态风险与高景观生态风险主要位于上、下湖区.(3)季节间景观生态风险相关性最高的为秋季与冬季;年度生态风险与冬季生态风险高度相关.因此,近30年升金湖不同季节湿地景观生态风险时空演变趋势体现了该湿地景观格局变化对景观生态系统干扰的压力响应,且秋季与冬季湖区湿地需引起高度重视.     

Terrestrial transect study on driving mechanism of vegetation changes

In terms of Chinese climate-vegetation model based on the classification of plant functional types, to- gether with climatic data from 1951 to 1980 and two future climatic scenarios (SRES-A2 and SRES-B2) in China from the highest and the lowest emission scenarios of greenhouse gases, the distribution patterns of vegetation types and their changes along the Northeast China Transect (NECT) and the North-South Transect of Eastern China (NSTEC) were simulated in order to understand the driving mechanisms of vegetation changes under climatic change. The results indicated that the vegetation distribution patterns would change significantly under future climate, and the major factors driving the vegetation changes were water and heat. However, the responses of various vegetation types to the changes in water and heat factors were obviously different. The vegetation changes were more sensi- tive to heat factors than to water factors. Thus, in the future climate warming will significantly affect vegetation distribution patterns.     

Landscape controls on long‐term runoff in subhumid heterogeneous Boreal Plains catchments

We compared median runoff (R) and precipitation (P) relationships over 25 years from 20 mesoscale (50 to 5,000 km²) catchments on the Boreal Plains, Alberta, Canada, to understand controls on water sink and source dynamics in water‐limited, low‐relief northern environments. Long‐term catchment R and runoff efficiency (RP^?1) were low and varied spatially by over an order of magnitude (3 to 119 mm/year, 1 to 27%). Intercatchment differences were not associated with small variations in climate. The partitioning of P into evapotranspiration (ET) and R instead reflected the interplay between underlying glacial deposit texture, overlying soil‐vegetation land cover, and regional slope. Correlation and principal component analyses results show that peatland‐swamp wetlands were the major source areas of water. The lowest estimates of median annual catchment ET (321 to 395 mm) and greatest R (60 to 119 mm, 13 to 27% of P) were observed in low‐relief, peatland‐swamp dominated catchments, within both fine‐textured clay‐plain and coarse‐textured glacial deposits. In contrast, open‐water wetlands and deciduous‐mixedwood forest land covers acted as water sinks, and less catchment R was observed with increases in proportional coverage of these land covers. In catchments dominated by hummocky moraines, long‐term runoff was restricted to 10 mm/year, or 2% of P. This reflects the poor surface‐drainage networks and slightly greater regional slope of the fine‐textured glacial deposit, coupled with the large soil‐water and depression storage and higher actual ET of associated shallow open‐water marsh wetland and deciduous‐forest land covers. This intercatchment study enhances current conceptual frameworks for predicting water yield in the Boreal Plains based on the sink and source functions of glacial landforms and soil‐vegetation land covers. It offers the capability within this hydro‐geoclimatic region to design reclaimed catchments with desired hydrological functionality and associated tolerances to climate or land‐use changes and inform land management decisions based on effective catchment‐scale conceptual understanding.