Snow cover and runoff modelling in a high mountain catchment with scarce data: effects of temperature and precipitation parameters

Snowmelt is an important source of runoff in high mountain catchments. Snowmelt modelling for alpine regions remains challenging with scarce gauges. This study simulates the snowmelt in the Karuxung River catchment in the south Tibetan Plateau using an altitude zone based temperature‐index model, calibrates the snow cover area and runoff simulation during 2003–2005 and validates the model performance via snow cover area and runoff simulation in 2006. In the snowmelt and runoff modelling, temperature and precipitation are the two most important inputs. Relevant parameters, such as critical snow fall temperature, temperature lapse rate and precipitation gradient, determine the form and amount of precipitation and distribution of temperature and precipitation in hydrological modelling of the sparsely gauged catchment. Sensitivity analyses show that accurate estimation of these parameters would greatly help in improving the snowmelt simulation accuracy, better describing the snow‐hydrological behaviours and dealing with the data scarcity at higher elevations. Specifically, correlation between the critical snow fall temperature and relative humidity and seasonal patterns of both the temperature lapse rate and the precipitation gradient should be considered in the modelling studies when precipitation form is not logged and meteorological observations are only available at low elevation. More accurate simulation of runoff involving snowmelt, glacier melt and rainfall runoff will improve our understanding of hydrological processes and help assess runoff impacts from a changing climate in high mountain catchments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Snow distribution in a steep mid-latitude alpine catchment

Snow distribution patterns are still poorly understood in steep alpine catchments because of mass redistribution from wind and avalanching. Snow models rarely operate with sufficient resolution, physics or input data to resolve this issue explicitly, and existing sub-grid parameterisations are rarely tested in this type of terrain. To address this issue daily snow cover observations, obtained from a ground-based camera, are combined with a snow melt model to estimate the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE) in a mountainous alpine catchment. Results show the importance of slope in controlling the spatial distribution of SWE and snow duration. This distribution is linked to the physical process of gravitational transport, where there is removal of snow from steep slopes and preferential deposition on moderate-angle slopes. From a modelling perspective, if sub-grid snow variability is parameterised using a log-normal probability distribution (as is common in hydrological and land-use models) then ignoring steep/shallow slope differences leads to an overestimation of melt at the beginning of the melt season, and a premature end to the snow melt season. When modelling SWE in complex terrain, care should be taken to consider reduced SWE on steep slopes.     

A comparison of snowmelt‐derived streamflow from temperature‐index and modified‐temperature‐index snow models

Reliable estimation of the volume and timing of snowmelt runoff is vital for water supply and flood forecasting in snow‐dominated regions. Snowmelt is often simulated using temperature‐index (TI) models due to their applicability in data‐sparse environments. Previous research has shown that a modified‐TI model, which uses a radiation‐derived proxy temperature instead of air temperature as its surrogate for available energy, can produce more accurate snow‐covered area (SCA) maps than a traditional TI model. However, it is unclear whether the improved SCA maps are associated with improved snow water equivalent (SWE) estimation across the watershed or improved snowmelt‐derived streamflow simulation. This paper evaluates whether a modified‐TI model produces better streamflow estimates than a TI model when they are used within a fully distributed hydrologic model. It further evaluates the performance of the two models when they are calibrated using either point SWE measurements or SCA maps. The Senator Beck Basin in Colorado is used as the study site because its surface is largely bedrock, which reduces the role of infiltration and emphasizes the role of the SWE pattern on streamflow generation. Streamflow is simulated using both models for 6 years. The modified‐TI model produces more accurate streamflow estimates (including flow volume and peak flow rate) than the TI model, likely because the modified‐TI model better reproduces the SWE pattern across the watershed. Both models also produce better performance when calibrated with SCA maps instead of point SWE data, likely because the SCA maps better constrain the space‐time pattern of SWE.     

Spatio‐temporal controls of snowmelt and runoff generation during rain‐on‐snow events in a mid‐latitude mountain catchment

A network of 30 standalone snow monitoring stations was used to investigate the snow cover distribution, snowmelt dynamics, and runoff generation during two rain‐on‐snow (ROS) events in a 40 km² montane catchment in the Black Forest region of southwestern Germany. A multiple linear regression analysis using elevation, aspect, and land cover as predictors for the snow water equivalent (SWE) distribution within the catchment was applied on an hourly basis for two significant ROS flood events that occurred in December 2012. The available snowmelt water, liquid precipitation, as well as the total retention storage of the snow cover were considered in order to estimate the amount of water potentially available for the runoff generation. The study provides a spatially and temporally distributed picture of how the two observed ROS floods developed in the catchment. It became evident that the retention capacity of the snow cover is a crucial mechanism during ROS. It took several hours before water was released from the snowpack during the first ROS event, while retention storage was exceeded within 1 h from the start of the second event. Elevation was the most important terrain feature. South‐facing terrain contributed more water for runoff than north‐facing slopes, and only slightly more runoff was generated at open compared to forested areas. The results highlight the importance of snowmelt together with liquid precipitation for the generation of flood runoff during ROS and the large temporal and spatial variability of the relevant processes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improvement of distributed snowmelt energy balance modeling with MODIS‐based NDSI‐derived fractional snow‐covered area data

Describing the spatial variability of heterogeneous snowpacks at a watershed or mountain‐front scale is important for improvements in large‐scale snowmelt modelling. Snowmelt depletion curves, which relate fractional decreases in snow‐covered area (SCA) against normalized decreases in snow water equivalent (SWE), are a common approach to scale‐up snowmelt models. Unfortunately, the kinds of ground‐based observations that are used to develop depletion curves are expensive to gather and impractical for large areas. We describe an approach incorporating remotely sensed fractional SCA (FSCA) data with coinciding daily snowmelt SWE outputs during ablation to quantify the shape of a depletion curve. We joined melt estimates from the Utah Energy Balance Snow Accumulation and Melt Model (UEB) with FSCA data calculated from a normalized difference snow index snow algorithm using NASA's moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) visible (0·545–0·565 µm) and shortwave infrared (1·628–1·652 µm) reflectance data. We tested the approach at three 500 m² study sites, one in central Idaho and the other two on the North Slope in the Alaskan arctic. The UEB‐MODIS‐derived depletion curves were evaluated against depletion curves derived from ground‐based snow surveys. Comparisons showed strong agreement between the independent estimates. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The implications of permafrost thaw and land cover change on snow water equivalent accumulation,melt and runoff in discontinuous permafrost peatlands

In the discontinuous permafrost zone of the Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, snow covers the ground surface for half the year. Snowmelt constitutes a primary source of moisture supply for the short growing season and strongly influences stream hydrographs. Permafrost thaw has changed the landscape by increasing the proportional coverage of permafrost-free wetlands at the expense of permafrost-cored peat plateau forests. The biophysical characteristics of each feature affect snow water equivalent (SWE) accumulation and melt rates. In headwater streams in the southern Dehcho region of the NWT, snowmelt runoff has significantly increased over the past 50 years, despite no significant change in annual SWE. At the Fort Simpson A climate station, we found that SWE measurements made by Environment and Climate Change Canada using a Nipher precipitation gauge were more accurate than the Adjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Dataset which was derived from snow depth measurements. Here, we: (a) provide 13 years of snow survey data to demonstrate differences in end-of-season SWE between wetlands and plateau forests; (b) provide ablation stake and radiation measurements to document differences in snow melt patterns among wetlands, plateau forests, and upland forests; and (c) evaluate the potential impact of permafrost-thaw induced wetland expansion on SWE accumulation, melt, and runoff. We found that plateaus retain significantly (p < 0.01) more SWE than wetlands. However, the differences are too small (123 mm and 111 mm, respectively) to cause any substantial change in basin SWE. During the snowmelt period in 2015, wetlands were the first feature to become snow-free in mid-April, followed by plateau forests (7 days after wetlands) and upland forests (18 days after wetlands). A transition to a higher percentage cover of wetlands may lead to more rapid snowmelt and provide a more hydrologically-connected landscape, a plausible mechanism driving the observed increase in spring freshet runoff.     

Recent snow cover changes over central European low mountain ranges

In this study, we simulated the snow water equivalent (SWE), rain-on-snow (ROS) events, evapotranspiration, and run-off for the period 1961–2016 in a central European region covered by low mountain ranges (<820 m a.s.l.) using a distributed hydrological model TRAnspiration and INterception evaporation model (TRAIN). We utilized improved cloud-free Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow cover products to evaluate the modelled snow-covered area, indicating a good performance of the snow modelling. We analysed the intra- and inter-annual variations of the simulated hydrological variables and the synchronous climate variables (air temperature and precipitation). Trend detection indicates a significant SWE decline throughout the snow season, but principally at the high elevations; the most severe warming occurred in early spring (March), whereas precipitation showed a slight increase in January and February. The snowpack in February has displayed the most striking reduction during the past 56 years, which is likely related to both the highest susceptibility of snow to warming and the increased ROS occurrence in February since the early 1990s. The increased combination of high temperatures and extreme rainfalls, as well as the earlier snowmelt, has resulted in a run-off increase during the earlier winter but a decrease in March. The expected changing climate towards warmer and wetter winters will probably exacerbate winter flooding in the future.     

Evaluation and bias correction of SNODAS snow water equivalent (SWE) for streamflow simulation in eastern Canadian basins

ABSTRACT

In snow-dominated basins, collection of snow data while capturing its spatio-temporal variability is difficult; therefore, integrating assimilation products could be a viable alternative for improving streamflow simulation. This study evaluates the accuracy of daily snow water equivalent (SWE) provided by the SNOw Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) of the National Weather Service at a 1-km² resolution for two basins in eastern Canada, where SWE is a critical variable intensifying spring runoff. A geostatistical interpolation method was used to distribute snow observations. SNODAS SWE products were bias-corrected by matching their cumulative distribution function to that of the interpolated snow. The corrected SWE was then used in hydrological modelling for streamflow simulation. The results indicate that the bias-correction method significantly improved the accuracy of the SNODAS products. Moreover, the corrected SWE improved the simulation performance of the peak values. Although the uncertainty of SNODAS estimates is high for eastern Canadian basins, they are still of great value for regions with few snow stations.     

Modelling snow water equivalent and spring runoff in a boreal watershed,James Bay,Canada

The hydrology of boreal regions is strongly influenced by seasonal snow accumulation and melt. In this study, we compare simulations of snow water equivalent (SWE) and streamflow by using the hydrological model HYDROTEL with two contrasting approaches for snow modelling: a mixed degree‐day/energy balance model (small number of inputs, but several calibration parameters needed) and the thermodynamic model CROCUS (large number of inputs, but no calibration parameter needed). The study site, in Northern Quebec, Canada was equipped with a ground‐based gamma ray sensor measuring the SWE continuously for 5 years in a small forest clearing. The first simulation of CROCUS showed a tendency to underestimate SWE, attributable to bias in the meteorological inputs. We found that it was appropriate to use a threshold of 2 °C to separate rain and snow. We also applied a correction to account for snowfall undercatch by the precipitation gauge. After these modifications to the input dataset, we noticed that CROCUS clearly overestimated the SWE, likely as a result of not including loss in SWE because of blowing snow sublimation and relocation. To correct this, we included into CROCUS a simple parameterisation effective after a certain wind speed threshold, after which the thermodynamic model performed much better than the traditional mixed degree‐day/energy balance model. HYDROTEL was then used to simulate streamflow with both snow models. With CROCUS, the main peak flow could be captured, but the second peak because of delayed snowmelt from forested areas could not be reproduced due to a lack of sub‐canopy radiation data to feed CROCUS. Despite the relative homogeneity of the boreal landscape, data inputs from each land cover type are needed to generate satisfying simulation of the spring runoff. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A modelling framework to simulate field‐scale nitrate response and transport during snowmelt: The WINTRA model

Modelling nutrient transport during snowmelt in cold regions remains a major scientific challenge. A key limitation of existing nutrient models for application in cold regions is the inadequate representation of snowmelt, including hydrological and biogeochemical processes. This brief period can account for more than 80% of the total annual surface runoff in the Canadian Prairies and Northern Canada and processes such as atmospheric deposition, overwinter redistribution of snow, ion exclusion from snow crystals, frozen soils, and snow‐covered area depletion during melt influence the distribution and release of snow and soil nutrients, thus affecting the timing and magnitude of snowmelt runoff nutrient concentrations. Research in cold regions suggests that nitrate (NO₃) runoff at the field‐scale can be divided into 5 phases during snowmelt. In the first phase, water and ions originating from ion‐rich snow layers travel and diffuse through the snowpack. This process causes ion concentrations in runoff to gradually increase. The second phase occurs when this snow ion meltwater front has reached the bottom of the snowpack and forms runoff to the edge‐of‐the‐field. During the third and fourth phases, the main source of NO₃ transitions from the snowpack to the soil. Finally, the fifth and last phase occurs when the snow has completely melted, and the thawing soil becomes the main source of NO₃ to the stream. In this research, a process‐based model was developed to simulate hourly export based on this 5‐phase approach. Results from an application in the Red River Basin of southern Manitoba, Canada, shows that the model can adequately capture the dynamics and rapid changes of NO₃ concentrations during this period at relevant temporal resolutions. This is a significant achievement to advance the current nutrient modelling paradigm in cold climates, which is generally limited to satisfactory results at monthly or annual resolutions. The approach can inform catchment‐scale nutrient models to improve simulation of this critical snowmelt period.     

Operational snow modeling: Addressing the challenges of an energy balance model for National Weather Service forecasts

Prediction of snowmelt has become a critical issue in much of the western United States given the increasing demand for water supply, changing snow cover patterns, and the subsequent requirement of optimal reservoir operation. The increasing importance of hydrologic predictions necessitates that traditional forecasting systems be re-evaluated periodically to assure continued evolution of the operational systems given scientific advancements in hydrology. The National Weather Service (NWS) SNOW17, a conceptually based model used for operational prediction of snowmelt, has been relatively unchanged for decades. In this study, the Snow–Atmosphere–Soil Transfer (SAST) model, which employs the energy balance method, is evaluated against the SNOW17 for the simulation of seasonal snowpack (both accumulation and melt) and basin discharge. We investigate model performance over a 13-year period using data from two basins within the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed located in southwestern Idaho. Both models are coupled to the NWS runoff model [SACramento Soil Moisture Accounting model (SACSMA)] to simulate basin streamflow. Results indicate that while in many years simulated snowpack and streamflow are similar between the two modeling systems, the SAST more often overestimates SWE during the spring due to a lack of mid-winter melt in the model. The SAST also had more rapid spring melt rates than the SNOW17, leading to larger errors in the timing and amount of discharge on average. In general, the simpler SNOW17 performed consistently well, and in several years, better than, the SAST model. Input requirements and related uncertainties, and to a lesser extent calibration, are likely to be primary factors affecting the implementation of an energy balance model in operational streamflow prediction.     

Distributed and integrated response of a geographic information system‐based hydrologic model in the eastern Palouse region,Idaho

Verification of distributed hydrologic models is rare owing to the lack of spatially detailed field measurements and a common mismatch between the scale at which soil hydraulic properties are measured and the scale of a single modelling unit. In this study, two of the most commonly calibrated parameters, i.e. soil depth and the vertical distribution of lateral saturated hydraulic conductivity K_s, were eliminated by a spatially detailed soil characterization and results of a hillslope‐scale field experiment. The soil moisture routing (SMR) model, a geographic information system‐based hydrologic model, was modified to represent the dominant hydrologic processes for the Palouse region of northern Idaho. Modifications included K_s as a double exponential function of depth in a single soil layer, a snow accumulation and melt algorithm, and a simple relationship between storage and perched water depth (PWD) using the drainable porosity. The model was applied to a 2 ha catchment without calibration to measured data. Distributed responses were compared with observed PWD over a 3‐year period on a 10 m × 15 m grid. Integrated responses were compared with observed surface runoff at the catchment outlet. The modified SMR model simulated the PWD fluctuations remarkably well, especially considering the shallow soils in this catchment: a 0·20 m error in PWD is equivalent to only a 1·6% error in predicted soil moisture content. Simulations also captured PWD fluctuations during a year with high spatial variability of snow accumulation and snowmelt rates at upslope, mid‐slope, and toe slope positions with errors as low as 0·09 m, 0·12 m, and 0·12 m respectively. Errors in distributed and integrated model simulations were attributed mostly to misrepresentation of rain events and snowmelt timing problems. In one location in the catchment, simulated PWD was consistently greater than observed PWD, indicating a localized recharge zone, which was not identified by the soil morphological survey. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A theory of pressure sensor performance in snow

A theory of pressure sensor response in snow is derived and used to examine the sources of measurement errors in snow water equivalent (SWE) pressure sensors. Measurement errors in SWE are caused by differences in the compressibility of the pressure sensor and the adjacent snow layer, which produces a shear stress along the perimeter of the sensor. When the temperature at the base of the snow cover equals 0 °C, differences in the snowmelt rate between the snow–SWE sensor interface and the adjacent snow–soil interface may also produce a shear stress along the sensor's perimeter. This shear stress perturbs the pressure field over the sensor, producing SWE measurement errors. Snow creep acts to reduce shear stresses along the SWE sensor's perimeter at a rate that is inversely proportional to the snow viscosity. For sustained periods of differential snowmelt, a difference in the mass of snow over the sensor compared with the surrounding soil will develop, producing additional permanent errors in SWE measurements. The theory indicates that SWE pressure sensor performance can be improved by designing a sensor with a high Young's modulus (low compressibility), low aspect ratio, large diameter and thermal properties that match those of the surrounding soil. Simulations of SWE pressure sensor errors using the theory are in close agreement with observed errors and may provide a means to correct historical SWE measurements for use in hydrological hindcast or climate studies. Published in 2003 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of land-use changes on snow in a forested region with heavy snowfall in Hokkaido,Japan

Abstract

We simulated snow processes in a forested region with heavy snowfall in Japan, and evaluated both the regional-scale snow distribution and the potential impact of land-use changes on the snow cover and water balances over the entire domain. SnowModel reproduced the snow processes at open and forested sites, which were confirmed by snow water equivalent (SWE) measurements at two intensive observation sites and snow depth measurements at the Automated Meteorological Data Acquisition System sites. SnowModel also reproduced the observed snow distribution (from the MODIS snow cover data) over the simulation domain during thaw. The observed SWE was less at the forested site than at the open site. The SnowModel simulations showed that this difference was caused mainly by differences in sublimation. The type of land use changed the maximum SWE, onset and duration of snowmelt, and the daily snowmelt rate due to canopy snow interception.

Citation Suzuki, K., Kodama, Y., Nakai, T., Liston, G. E., Yamamoto, K., Ohata, T., Ishii, Y., Sumida, A., Hara, T. & Ohta, T. (2011) Impact of land-use changes in a forested region with heavy snowfall in Hokkaido, Japan. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(3), 443–467.     

Seasonal dynamics in shallow freshwater pond‐peatland hydrochemical interactions in a subarctic permafrost environment

Terrestrial and aquatic ecological productivity are often nutrient limited in subarctic permafrost environments. High latitude regions are experiencing significant climatic change, including rapid warming and changing precipitation patterns, which may result in changes in nutrient dynamics within terrestrial and aquatic systems and hydrochemical transport between them. The objective of this research was to characterize changes in runoff quantity and quality within, and between peatlands and ponds throughout the snow‐free summer season. Two ponds and their catchments were monitored over the snow‐free season to measure changes in hydrologic storage, and to determine how water chemistry changed with the evolution of the frost table depth. Thresholds in hydrologic storage combined with frost table position (which inhibited infiltration and storage) produced nonlinear responses for runoff generation through highly conductive shallow peat layers while deeper, less conductive layers retarded flow. Greater inputs were required to exceed hydrologic storage (fill and spill) as a deepening frost table increased the hydrologically active portion of the soil, leading to seasonal variability in runoff pathways between peatlands and ponds. Runoff contributions to ponds were an integral component of the snow‐free water balance during the study period, contributing up to 60% of all snow‐free inputs. Groundwater chemistry (and pond chemistry following runoff events when ponds were connected with peatlands) reflected the different depths of peat and mineral soil accessed throughout the season. This work has improved scientific understanding of the combined controls of hydrologic inputs and ground frost on runoff and nutrient transport between peatlands and ponds, and sheds insight into how nutrient dynamics in cold regions may evolve under a changing climate.     

Snow density variations: consequences for ground‐penetrating radar

Reliable hydrological forecasts of snowmelt runoff are of major importance for many areas. Ground‐penetrating radar (GPR) measurements are used to assess snowpack water equivalent for planning of hydropower production in northern Sweden. The travel time of the radar pulse through the snow cover is recorded and converted to snow water equivalent (SWE) using a constant snowpack mean density from the drainage basin studied. In this paper we improve the method to estimate SWE by introducing a depth‐dependent snowpack density. We used 6 years measurements of peak snow depth and snowpack mean density at 11 locations in the Swedish mountains. The original method systematically overestimates the SWE at shallow depths (+25% for 0·5 m) and underestimates the SWE at large depths (?35% for 2·0 m). A large improvement was obtained by introducing a depth–density relation based on average conditions for several years, whereas refining this by using separate relations for individual years yielded a smaller improvement. The SWE estimates were substantially improved for thick snow covers, reducing the average error from 162 ± 23 mm to 53 ± 10 mm for depth range 1·2–2·0 m. Consequently, the introduction of a depth‐dependent snow density yields substantial improvements of the accuracy in SWE values calculated from GPR data. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Melted snow volume control in the snowmelt runoff model using a snow water equivalent statistically based model

Snowmelt is an important component of the river discharge in mountain environments. In the past 40 years, the snowmelt dynamics has been mostly evaluated using degree‐day‐based models like the snowmelt runoff model (SRM). This model has no control on the volume of the melting snow, even if SRM includes as data input the snow‐covered area. This lack explains why the application of SRM may lead to inaccurate snowmelt volume estimations, even if the discharge volumes are accurately reproduced. Here we introduce in SRM the control on the melted snow volume and consider it in the determination of SRM parameters. The total snow volume, accumulated at the end of winter season, is evaluated by a snow water equivalent statistically based model, SWE‐SEM, and used as an estimate of the melting snow during the summer season. The benefit derived from the introduction of the control on the melting snow volume was investigated in the Mallero basin (northern Italy) for the 2003 and 2004 snow melting seasons. The analysis compares the model's results adopting different parameter sets, both considering and ignoring the control on the melting snow volume. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploring the spatiotemporal variability of the snow water equivalent in a small boreal forest catchment through observation and modelling

In snow-fed catchments, it is crucial to monitor and model the snow water equivalent (SWE), particularly when simulating the melt water runoff. SWE distribution can, however, be highly heterogeneous, particularly in forested environments. Within these locations, scant studies have explored the spatiotemporal variability in SWE in relation with vegetation characteristics, with only few successful attempts. The aim of this paper is to fill this knowledge gap, through a detailed monitoring at nine locations within a 3.49 km² forested catchment in southern Québec, Canada (47°N, 71°W). The catchment receives an annual average of 633 mm of solid precipitation and is predominantly covered with balsam fir stands. Extracted from intensive field campaign and high-resolution LiDAR data, this study explores the effect of fine scale forest features (tree height, tree diameter, canopy density, leaf area index [LAI], tree density and gap fraction) on the spatiotemporal variability in the SWE distribution. A nested stratified random sampling design was adopted to quantify small-scale variability across the catchment and 1810 manual snow samples were collected throughout the consecutive winters of 2016–17 and 2017–18. This study explored the variability of SWE using coefficients of variation (CV) and relating to the LAI. We also present existing spatiotemporal differences in maximum snow depth across different stands and its relationship with average tree diameter. Furthermore, exploiting key vegetation characteristics, this paper explores different approaches to model SWE, such as multiple linear regression, binary regression tree and neural networks (NN). We were unable to establish any relationship between the CV of SWE and the LAI. However, we observed an increase in maximum snow depth with decreasing tree diameter, suggesting an association between these variables. NN modelling (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency [NSE] = 0.71) revealed that, snow depth, snowpack age and forest characteristics (tree diameter and tree density) are key controlling variables on SWE. Using only variables that are deemed to be more readily available (snow depth, tree height, snowpack age and elevation), NN performance falls by only 7% (NSE = 0.66).     

Assessing the impact of distributed snow water equivalent calibration and assimilation of Copernicus snow water equivalent on modelled snow and streamflow performance

Accuracy of the Copernicus snow water equivalent (SWE) product and the impact of SWE calibration and assimilation on modelled SWE and streamflow was evaluated. Daily snowpack measurements were made at 12 locations from 2016 to 2019 across a 4104 km² mixed-forest basin in the Great Lakes region of central Ontario, Canada. Sub-basin daily SWE calculated from these sites, observed discharge, and lake levels were used to calibrate a hydrologic model developed using the Raven modelling framework. Copernicus SWE was bias corrected during the melt period using mean bias subtraction and was compared to daily basin average SWE calculated from the measured data. Bias corrected Copernicus SWE was assimilated into the models using a range of parameters and the parameterizations from the model calibration. The bias corrected Copernicus product agreed well with measured data and provided a good estimate of mean basin SWE demonstrating that the product shows promise for hydrology applications within the study region. Calibration to spatially distributed SWE substantially improved the basin scale SWE estimate while only slightly degrading the flow simulation demonstrating the value of including SWE in a multi-objective calibration formulation. The particle filter experiments yielded the best SWE estimation but moderately degraded the flow simulation. The particle filter experiments constrained by the calibrated snow parameters produced similar results to the experiments using the upper and lower bounds indicating that, in this study, model calibration prior to assimilation was not valuable. The calibrated models exhibited varying levels of skill in estimating SWE but demonstrated similar streamflow performance. This indicates that basin outlet streamflow can be accurately estimated using a model with a poor representation of distributed SWE. This may be sufficient for applications where estimating flow is the primary water management objective. However, in applications where understanding the physical processes of snow accumulation, melt and streamflow generation are important, such as assessing the impact of climate change on water resources, accurate representations of SWE are required and can be improved via multi-objective calibration or data assimilation, as demonstrated in this study.