Allogenic and autogenic effects on mangrove dynamics from the Ceará Mirim River,north‐eastern Brazil,during the middle and late Holocene

It is possible that climate changes and sea level fluctuations (allogenic processes) are and will cause major changes in mangrove dynamics. However, other driving forces may be significantly affecting this system. Distinguishing allogenic and autogenic influence on mangroves is a challenging question, because mechanisms related to the natural dynamics of depositional environments (autogenic processes) have strong influences on the establishment and degradation of mangroves. Thus, impacts on mangroves caused by autogenic processes may be erroneously attributed to allogenic mechanisms. Therefore, it is imperative to identify the ‘fingerprint’ of global changes in modern mangrove dynamics. In order to characterize the influence of these forces on mangroves, this work has used geomorphology and vegetation maps integrated with sedimentological and palynological data, radiocarbon dating, as well as δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N and C/N from sedimentary organic matter. The inter‐proxy analyses reveal an estuarine influence with mangrove development along the Ceará Mirim River, north‐eastern Brazil, since ~6920 cal yr bp , after the post‐glacial sea level rise. Relative sea level (RSL) has been stable during the middle and late Holocene. Mangrove establishment along this fluvial valley begins at about 6920 cal yr bp , caused by the sea‐level stabilization, an allogenic influence. However, after its establishment, wetland dynamics were mainly controlled by autogenic factors, related to channel migrations, instead of allogenic process. Some influence of sea‐level and climate changes on mangrove dynamics in this estuarine channel have been weakened by more intense tidal channels activities. Therefore, the expansion and contraction of mangrove areas along the estuary of the Ceará Mirim River since 6920 cal yr bp has been mainly influenced by channel dynamics that regulate the accretion and erosion of mangrove substrates. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Community replacement sequences and paleoenvironmental changes in reef areas of South China from Late Permian to Early Triassic exemplified by Panlongdong section in northeastern Sichuan Basin

The well-known Permian Changhsingian calcisponge reef located at Panlongdong section,Xuanhan county,northeastern Sichuan Basin has attracted wide attention.Due to severe dolomitization and poor quality of the fossils,the P-T boundary in this section is difficult to determine.This study,for the first time,recognized six communities in the Upper Permian Changhsingian Changxing Formation through the Lower Triassic Induan Feixianguan Formation of the Panlongdong section.They are Bryozoan-Archaeolithoporella-calcisponge Community,Calcareous green algae-foraminifer-crinoid Community,Microgastropod-foraminifer Community,Ostracod-microgastropod-cystic microbe Community,Ostracod-small brachiopod Community,and Non-calcified cyanobacteria Community.By using community replacement and palaeoenvironmental analysis,for the first time,we set the P-T boundary of the Panlongdong section at the middle of the calcimicrobialite containing cystic microbes.The community replacement sequence in the Panlongdong section is similar to that in other contemporaneous sections in reef areas of South China,indicating universal palaeoenvironmental changes during the Permian-Triassic transition.The results show that:(1)Changhsingian calcisponge reefs in South China generally vanished before the mass extinction and may be related to the large regression in the Late Permian.(2)The Calcareous green algae-foraminifer-crinoid Community replaced reef community and continued till the mass extinction.The mass extinction was probably related to the global sea-level drop.(3)The first aftermath community was dominated by specialized microgastropods,followed by the microbes,and then by the specialized microgastropods and small brachiopods.The succession of the three communities reflected the change in environmental conditions from dysoxic to anoxic and again to dysoxic.(4)In the Early Triassic,the relict community in shallow sea had very low diversity and low abundance,and was dominated by crinoids,gastropods,and bivalves.     

Coastal slope terracing and relative sea-level changes: Deductions based on computer simulations

Although a traditional geological survey of terraced coastal slopes is an essential part of studies aimed to reconstruct relative sea-level changes, the stratigraphic and chronological data so obtained frequently prove inadequate to completely unravel the sometimes very complex history of sea-level fluctuation, especially where erosion has prevailed over deposition and/or deposits are difficult to date. On the basis of our experience we think that much additional information can be gained through geomorphological interpretation of the profiles of those slopes. In order to facilitate such interpretation, a computer simulation model is developed that is able to predict the morphogenic response to a variety of possible relative-sea-level histories. The results can be used to envisage some new interpretation keys for the analysis of real situations and, hopefully, as bases for the conception of general models of coastal slope evolution under the action of a variable sea level. Though preliminary, the results so far obtained permit identification of the geomorphological consequences (in terms of resulting slope profile) of ordered successions of transgressions and regressions of different amplitude, rate, order and style. Moreover they provide interesting insights into the role that different styles of tectonic uplift may play in the phenomenon of multiple terracing of coastal slopes.     

The species diversity of fusulinaceans and high-frequency sea-level changes in the Carboniferous-Permian boundary section at Xikou, Zhen’an County, Shaanxi Province, China

The study on the interrelation between sea-level changes and biodiversity with its evolution has great significance for understanding the impact of global changes on organic evolution and exploring the inherent laws of life-environment coevolution in geological history. In this paper, the stratigraphic distribution of fusulinacean fauna in the Carboniferous-Permian boundary section at Xikou, Zhen’an County, Shaanxi Province, is analyzed quantitatively, and the relationship between the species diversity of fusulinaceans and relative sea-level changes is discussed. As a whole, the species numbers of fusulinacean fauna experience a rapid increase and an obvious decline in Xikou, Zhen’an County, from the Late Carboniferous to the Early Permian. There is a significant increase in species diversity around the Carboniferous-Permian boundary, which is one of the biggest bio-events of the fusulinacean fauna, and represents the radiation of Pseudoschwagerininae subfamily in the studied area. Integrated fusulinacean species diversity into sequence stratigraphic framework, detailed study suggests that the species diversity of the fusulinaceans is closely related to its relative stratigraphic location, and is essentially controlled by the sea-level changes, especially by the high-frequency sea-level changes. Generally, the species diversity of fusulinaceans is low, and the number of first and last appearance datum is small in the lower unit of high-frequency depositional cycle formed during the quick rise of the sea level; whereas the species diversity of fusulinaceans is high, and the number of first and last appearance datum is large in the upper unit of high-frequency cycle formed during the slow fall of the sea level. Within the third-order depositional sequence, the species diversity of the fusulinaceans at the first flooding surfaces and the maximum flooding surfaces is low, and it increases upward. The fusulinacean species diversity is low within the transgressive systems track, and it is high within the highstand systems track. The second-order rise and fall in sea level coincide with the bloom and decline of high order taxa of fusulinaceans.     

20th Century sea-level change along the eastern US: Unravelling the contributions from steric changes, Greenland ice sheet mass balance and Late Pleistocene glacial loading

We have considered the influence of ocean temperature and salinity changes, mass changes of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) and the isostatic response of the solid earth to the most recent glacial cycle on 20th century sea-level change along the US east coast with the intention of better understanding the observed signal as well as determining the potential of the tide gauge data for constraining the recent (past 50–100 yr) mass balance of the GIS and earth viscosity structure. Our results show that the signal due to steric changes is large and displays a complex spatial variation which can account for a significant portion of the observed signal. In contrast, that due to changes in the GIS is relatively small and insensitive to the specific geometry of the mass balance model adopted. As a consequence, the tide gauge data alone are not capable of providing useful constraints on either the magnitude or form of recent GIS mass balance. Our inference of mantle viscosity structure based on the tide gauge data was affected dramatically when the steric effect was accounted for: An earth model with an upper mantle viscosity of 8 × 10¹⁹ Pa s and a lower mantle viscosity of 5 × 10²² Pa s produced the best fit to the steric-corrected data; the optimal fit to the uncorrected data was obtained for upper and lower mantle viscosities of 5 × 10²⁰ Pa s and 10²² Pa s, respectively.     

人工神经网络模型预测气候变化对博斯腾湖流域径流影响

温室气体排放量增加造成气候变化,对全球资源环境产生重要影响．本文利用人工神经网络模型建立月降水、气温与径流关系,利用开都河流域降水、气温、径流资料对模型进行训练和验证,通过试算法确定网络模型结构,气温升高和降水量增加对径流影响的敏感程度分析表明,气温升高和降水增加对该区域径流影响较大,且气温升高的影响更为显著,径流增加主要集中在夏季,根据区域气候模型（RCMs）推算的CO2加倍情况下西北地区气候的可能变化,预测位于博斯腾湖流域的开都河大山口站年径流量增加38．6％,其中夏季增加71．8％,冬季增加11．4％。     

Influence of partial confinement and Holocene river formation on groundwater flow and dissolution in the Florida carbonate platform

Much of what is known about groundwater circulation and geochemical evolution in carbonate platforms is based on platforms that are fully confined or unconfined. Much less is known about groundwater flow paths and geochemical evolution in partially confined platforms, particularly those supporting surface water. In north‐central Florida, sea level rise and a transition to a wetter climate during the Holocene formed rivers in unconfined portions of the Florida carbonate platform. Focusing on data from the Santa Fe River basin, we show river formation has led to important differences in the hydrological and geochemical evolution of the Santa Fe River basin relative to fully confined or unconfined platforms. Runoff from the siliciclastic confining layer drove river incision and created topographic relief, reorienting the termination of local and regional groundwater flow paths from the coast to the rivers in unconfined portions of the platform. The most chemically evolved groundwater occurs at the end of the longest and deepest flow paths, which discharge near the center of the platform because of incision of the Santa Fe River at the edge of the confining unit. This pattern of discharge of mineralized water differs from fully confined or unconfined platforms where discharge of the most mineralized water occurs at the coast. Mineralized water flowing into the Santa Fe River is diluted by less evolved water derived from shorter, shallower flow paths that discharge to the river downstream. Formation of rivers shortens flow path lengths, thereby decreasing groundwater residence times and allowing freshwater to discharge more quickly to the oceans in the newly formed rivers than in platforms that lack rivers. Similar dynamic changes to groundwater systems should be expected to occur in the future as climate change and sea level rise develop surface water on other carbonate platforms and low lying coastal aquifer systems. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling the effects of land use and climate changes on hydrology in the Ursern Valley,Switzerland

While many studies have been conducted in mountainous catchments to examine the impact of climate change on hydrology, the interactions between climate changes and land use components have largely unknown impacts on hydrology in alpine regions. They need to be given special attention in order to devise possible strategies concerning general development in these regions. Thus, the main aim was to examine the impact of land use (i.e. bushland expansion) and climate changes (i.e. increase of temperature) on hydrology by model simulations. For this purpose, the physically based WaSiM‐ETH model was applied to the catchment of Ursern Valley in the central Alps (191 km²) over the period of 1983?2005. Modelling results showed that the reduction of the mean monthly discharge during the summer period is due primarily to the retreat of snow discharge in time and secondarily to the reduction in the glacier surface area together with its retreat in time, rather than the increase in the evapotranspiration due to the expansion of the “green alder” on the expense of grassland. The significant decrease in summer discharge during July, August and September shows a change in the regime from b‐glacio‐nival to nivo‐glacial. These changes are confirmed by the modeling results that attest to a temporal shift in snowmelt and glacier discharge towards earlier in the year: March, April and May for snowmelt and May and June for glacier discharge. It is expected that the yearly total discharge due to the land use changes will be reduced by 0.6% in the near future, whereas, it will be reduced by about 5% if climate change is also taken into account. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impacts of permafrost changes on alpine ecosystem in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Alpine cold ecosystem with permafrost environment is quite sensitive to climatic changes and the changes in permafrost can significantly affect the alpine ecosystem. The vegetation coverage, grassland biomass and soil nutrient and texture are selected to indicate the regime of alpine cold ecosystems in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The interactions between alpine ecosystem and permafrost were investigated with the depth of active layer, permafrost thickness and mean annual ground temperature (MAGTs). Based on the statistics model of GPTR for MAGTs and annual air temperatures, an analysis method was developed to analyze the impacts of permafrost changes on the alpine ecosystems. Under the climate change and human engineering activities, the permafrost change and its impacts on alpine ecosystems in the permafrost region between the Kunlun Mountains and the Tanggula Range of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau are studied in this paper. The results showed that the per- mafrost changes have a different influence on different alpine ecosystems. With the increase in the thickness of active layer, the vegetation cover and biomass of the alpine cold meadow exhibit a significant conic reduction, the soil organic matter content of the alpine cold meadow ecosystem shows an exponential decrease, and the surface soil materials become coarse and gravelly. The alpine cold steppe ecosystem, however, seems to have a relatively weak relation to the permafrost environment. Those relationships resulted in the fact that the distribution area of alpine cold meadow decreased by 7.98% and alpine cold swamp decreased by 28.11% under the permafrost environment degradation during recent 15 years. In the future 50 years the alpine cold meadow ecosystems in different geomorphologic units may have different responses to the changes of the permafrost under different climate warming conditions, among them the alpine cold meadow and swamp ecosystem located in the low mountain and plateau area will have a relatively serious degradation. Furthermore, from the angles of grassland coverage and biological production the variation characteristics of high-cold eco- systems in different representative regions and different geomorphologic units under different climatic conditions were quantitatively assessed. In the future, adopting effective measures to protect permafrost is of vital importance to maintaining the stability of permafrost engineering and alpine cold eco- systems in the plateau.     

Assessing the results of scenarios of climate and land use changes on the hydrology of an Italian catchment: modelling study

Hydrological models are recognized as valid scientific tools to study water quantity and quality and provide support for the integrated management and planning of water resources at different scales. In common with many catchments in the Mediterranean, the study catchment has many problems such as the increasing gap between water demand and supply, water quality deterioration, scarcity of available data, lack of measurements and specific information. The application of hydrological models to investigate hydrological processes in this type of catchments is of particular relevance for water planning strategies to address the possible impact of climate and land use changes on water resources. The distributed catchment scale model (DiCaSM) was selected to study the impact of climate and land use changes on the hydrological cycle and the water balance components in the Apulia region, southern Italy, specifically in the Candelaro catchment (1780 km²). The results obtained from this investigation proved the ability of DiCaSM to quantify the different components of the catchment water balance and to successfully simulate the stream flows. In addition, the model was run with the climate change scenarios for southern Italy, i.e. reduced winter rainfall by 5–10%, reduced summer rainfall by 15–20%, winter temperature rise by 1·25–1·5 °C and summer temperature rise by 1·5–1·75 °C. The results indicated that by 2050, groundwater recharge in the Candelaro catchment would decrease by 21–31% and stream flows by 16–23%. The model results also showed that the projected durum wheat yield up to 2050 is likely to decrease between 2·2% and 10·4% due to the future reduction in rainfall and increase in temperature. In the current study, the reliability of the DiCaSM was assessed when applied to the Candelaro catchment; those parameters that may cause uncertainty in model output were investigated using a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology. The results showed that DiCaSM provided a small level of uncertainty and subsequently, a higher confidence level. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the severity of disturbance for intertidal and subtidal macrobenthos: The phylum-level meta-analysis approach in tropical estuarine sites of northeastern Brazil

The phylum-level meta-analysis approach was applied to assess the status of disturbance of intertidal and subtidal macrobenthos in two estuaries in northeastern Brazil that are subject to different sources of pollution. Previously published estuarine data were included in the body of knowledge considered in the meta-analysis, to improve the reliability of the assessment of the Brazilian samples. Further multivariate and distributional techniques were applied to discriminate differences between estuaries and assess the pollution status of each. Phylum-level multivariate comparisons based on community attributes succeeded in discriminating the estuaries, and species distributions against abundance separated the estuaries in terms of pollution status. The meta-analysis indicated an almost indistinguishable moderate pollution status for both systems. Addition of new comparative data to the meta-analysis did not improve its sensitivity. Although the meta-analysis yielded satisfactory results in detecting disturbance in tropical estuaries, the method is not very sensitive to differences in sources of pollution.     

Impacts of land-use and climate changes on surface runoff in a tropical forest watershed (Brazil)

ABSTRACT

Surface runoff generation capacity can be modified by land-use and climate changes. Annual runoff volumes have been evaluated in a small watershed of tropical forest (Brazil), using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Firstly, the accuracy of SWAT in runoff predictions has been assessed by default input parameters and improved by automatic calibration, using 20-year observations. Then, the hydrological response under land uses (cropland, pasture and deforested soil) alternative to tropical forest and climate change scenarios has been simulated. SWAT application has showed that, if forest was replaced by crops or pasture, the watershed’s hydrological response would not significantly be affected. Conversely, a complete deforestation would slightly increase its runoff generation capacity. Under forecasted climate scenarios, the runoff generation capacity of the watershed will tend to decrease and will not be noticeably different among the representative concentration pathways. Pasture and bare soil will give the lowest and highest runoff coefficients, respectively.     

火山活动对北半球平流层气候异常变化的影响

文中利用逐次滤波法滤除北半球平流层70 hPa约15~22 km高空大气温度异常变化中太阳活动的影响之后,进一步分析了火山活动的气候效应,分析结果表明,火山活动能引起平流层较大幅度增温,对于北半球70hPa高空气候异常变化的影响超过了总方差的30%;火山活动影响最显著的高度是平流层70 hPa约15~22 km高空,由此高度向上或向下,火山活动的影响都逐渐减小;火山活动引起平流层大气升温的同时还将引起对流层大气降温,其分界线大致位于对流层顶300 hPa附近;强火山爆发如皮纳图博火山爆发、阿贡火山爆发和堪察加北楮缅奴等火山爆发是引起未来两年左右平流层中下层温度异常变化最重要的因素,其方差贡献率超过百分之五十三！;火山喷发高度越高,引起平流层增温效应的层次也越高;北半球大气温度异常变化对南半球火山活动响应的滞后时间比北半球火山活动长. 平流层高空气候异常变化还具有显著的22年变化周期,分析认为是大气温度场对太阳磁场磁性周期22年异常变化的响应,其方差贡献率超过9%.     

Wave climate and long-term changes for the Southern North Sea obtained from a high-resolution hindcast 1958–2002

An analysis of the extreme wave conditions in 1958–2002 in the North Sea as obtained from a regional model hindcast is presented. The model was driven by hourly wind fields obtained from a regional atmosphere model forced with reanalysis data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP/NCAR). Furthermore, observed sea ice conditions from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute have been accounted for in the simulation. It is shown that the model is capable of reproducing extreme wave height statistics at a reasonable degree of approximation. The analysis of severe wave height events reveals that for much of the Southern North Sea, their number has increased since the beginning of the simulation period (1958), although the increase has attenuated later and leveled off around about 1985. On the other hand, the intensity and duration of severe wave height events decreased within the last few years of the simulation so that annual 99%-ile wave heights have also reduced since about 1990–1995. For the UK North Sea coast, a different behavior was found characterized by a reduction in severe wave conditions over much of the hindcast period.     

Holocene salinity fluctuations of the East Korean lagoon related to sea level and precipitation changes

Detailed diatom records within core sediments from Maeho Lagoon along the Eastern coast of South Korea revealed that the ecological dynamics of the lagoon during the Holocene were associated with relative sea level and regional precipitation. Accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) ¹⁴C dating indicates that sediment accumulation began prior to 8300 cal. year BP, and that the lagoon formed around 8000 cal. year BP. The salinity level of the lagoon increased until 5000 cal. year BP, and then decreased. Long‐term trends in salinity were dependent upon changes in sea level: periods of high salinity in the lagoon were generally coincident with periods of high sea levels along the east coasts of Korea and Japan. On the other hand, multicentennial‐scale fluctuations in diatom assemblages and magnetic susceptibility (MS) suggest that a 400 year fluctuation in salinity was regulated by changes in precipitation in the area of this lagoon. Changes in the westerly jet stream, controlled by variation in solar irradiance, had an important influence on precipitation volume in South Korea, suggesting that the patterns of the westerly jet stream fluctuate on a 400 year cycle.     

Impact of sea-level rise and coral mortality on the wave dynamics and wave forces on barrier reefs

A one-dimensional wave model was used to investigate the reef top wave dynamics across a large suite of idealized reef-lagoon profiles, representing barrier coral reef systems under different sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. The modeling shows that the impacts of SLR vary spatially and are strongly influenced by the bathymetry of the reef and coral type. A complex response occurs for the wave orbital velocity and forces on corals, such that the changes in the wave dynamics vary reef by reef. Different wave loading regimes on massive and branching corals also leads to contrasting impacts from SLR. For many reef bathymetries, wave orbital velocities increase with SLR and cyclonic wave forces are reduced for certain coral species. These changes may be beneficial to coral health and colony resilience and imply that predicting SLR impacts on coral reefs requires careful consideration of the reef bathymetry and the mix of coral species.     

Sediment and trace element depositional history from the Ajkwa River estuarine mangroves of Irian Jaya (West Papua), Indonesia

Radiotracer ²¹⁰Pb and contaminant copper were used to estimate sediment accumulation rates in 4 cores from the Ajkwa River estuary and mangrove tidal channels in western Irian Jaya. Mass accumulation rates (4.5–13 kg dry wt m⁻² yr⁻¹) were within the envelope of expectations for a region of high rainfall, great river catchment relief, and rapid tectonic uplift of mountains. Copper accumulation rates were enhanced 40 fold in surface sediments, compared to pre-1950 sections of the sediment cores. These recent sediments with enhanced copper concentrations come from Freeport Indonesia mine tailings over the last 27 years. Variations in sediment core profiles of Al, Fe, and organic carbon were small, indicating no great change in bulk sediment composition. Sulfur concentrations decline toward the sediment surface, suggesting a decline in rates of microbial sulfate reduction. Enhanced sediment copper concentrations will be a useful tracer of sediment dispersal from the Ajkwa River estuary along this coast.     

Climatic and environmental changes over the last millennium recorded in the Malan ice core from the northern Tibetan Plateau

In this paper, climatic and environmental changes were reconstructed since 1129A.D. based on the Malan ice core from Hol Xil, the northern Tibetan Plateau. The record of δ 18O in the Malan ice core indicated that the warm-season air temperature variations displayed a general increase trend, the 20th-century warming was within the range of natural climate variability, and the warmest century was the 17th century while the warmest decade was the 1610s, over the entire study period. The “Medieval Warm Epoch” and “Little Ice Age” were also reflected by the ice core record. The dust ratio in the Malan ice core is a good proxy for dust event frequency. The 870-year record of the dust ratio showed that dust events occurred much frequently in the 19th century. Comparing the variations of δ 18O and the dust ratio, it is found that there was a strong negative correlation between them on the time scales of 101―102 years. By analyses of all the climatic records of ice cores and tree rings from the northern Tibetan Plateau, it was revealed that dust events were more frequent in the cold and dry periods than in the warm and wet periods.     

Long‐term sediment yield from a small catchment in southern Brazil affected by land use and soil management changes

Sediments produced from eroding cultivated land can cause on‐site and off‐site effects that cause considerable economic and social impacts. Despite the importance of soil conservation practices (SCP) for the control of soil erosion and improvements in soil hydrological functions, limited information is available regarding the effects of SCP on sediment yield (SY) at the catchment scale. This study aimed to investigate the long‐term relationships between SY and land use, soil management, and rainfall in a small catchment. To determine the effects of anthropogenic and climatic factors on SY, rainfall, streamflow, and suspended sediment concentration were monitored at 10‐min intervals for 14 years (2002–2016), and the land use and soil management changes were surveyed annually. Using a statistical procedure to separate the SY effects of climate, land use, and soil management, we observed pronounced temporal effects of land use and soil management changes on SY. During the first 2 years (2002–2004), the land was predominantly cultivated with tobacco under a traditional tillage system (no cover crops and ploughed soil) using animal traction. In that period, the SY reached approximately 400 t·km^?2·year^?1. From 2005 to 2009, a soil conservation programme introduced conservation tillage and winter cover crops in the catchment area, which lowered the SY to 50 t·km^?2·year^?1. In the final period (2010–2016), the SCP were partially abandoned by farmers, and reforested areas increased, resulting in an SY of 150 t·km^?2·year^?1. This study also discusses the factors associated with the failure to continue using SCP, including structural support and farmer attitudes.