Transferability of hydrological model parameter spaces in the estimation of runoff in ungauged catchments

Abstract

In this study, transferability options of the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) hydrological model parameter (MP) spaces were investigated to estimate ungauged catchment runoff. Three approaches were applied in the study: MP space transfer from single, neighbouring and all potential donor catchments. The model performance was evaluated by a jackknife procedure, where one catchment at a time was treated as if ungauged, and behavioural MP sets from candidate donor catchments were used to estimate the “ungauged” runoff. The results showed that ungauged catchment runoff estimation could not be guaranteed by transferring MP sets from a single physiographically nearest donor catchment. Integrating MP sets typically from one to six donor catchments supplemented the lack of effective MP sets and improved the model performance at the ungauged catchments. In addition, the analysis results revealed that the model performance converged to an average performance when the MP sets of all potential donor catchments were integrated.     

Rainfall–runoff modelling of ephemeral streams in the Valencia region (eastern Spain)

This paper presents preliminary results from the application of a transfer‐function rainfall–runoff model to ephemeral streams in Mediterranean Spain. Flow simulations have been conducted for two small catchments (Carraixet and Poyo basins), located in close proximity to one another yet with significantly different geological characteristics. Analysis of flow simulations for a number of high‐flow events has revealed the dominant influence of the rainfall on the catchment response, particularly for high‐rainfall events. Particular success has been attained modelling the highest magnitude events in both catchments and for all events in the faster responding (Poyo) catchment. In order to investigate the viability of the model for forecasting floods in ungauged catchments, additional investigations have been conducted by calibrating the model for one catchment (donor catchment) and then applying it to another (receptor catchment). The results indicate that this can be successful when either the donor catchment is a fast response catchment or when the model is calibrated using a high‐magnitude event in the donor catchment, providing that the modelled receptor catchment event is of a lower magnitude. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A model for distributed GIUH‐based flow routing on natural and anthropogenic hillslopes

Attempts to reduce the number of parameters in distributed rainfall–runoff models have not yet resulted in a model that is accurate for both natural and anthropogenic hillslopes. We take on the challenge by proposing a distributed model for overland flow and channel flow based on a combination of a linear response time distribution and the hillslope geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph (GIUH), which can be calculated with only a digital elevation model and a map with field boundaries and channel network as input. The spatial domain is subdivided into representative elementary hillslopes (REHs) for each of which we define geometric and flow velocity parameters and compute the GIUH. The catchment GIUH is given by the sum of all REH responses. While most distributed models only perform well on natural hillslopes, the advantage of our approach is that it can also be applied to modified hillslopes with for example a rectangular drainage network and terrace cultivation. Tests show that the REH‐GIUH approach performs better than classical routing functions (exponential and gamma). Simulations of four virtual hillslopes suggest that peak flow at the catchment outlet is directly related to drainage density. By combining the distributed flow routing model with a lumped‐parameter infiltration model, we were also able to demonstrate that terrace cultivation delays the response time and reduces peak flow in comparison to the same hillslope, but with a natural stream network. The REH‐GIUH approach is a first step in the process of coupling distributed hydrological models to erosion and water quality models at the REH (associated with agricultural management) and at the catchment scale (associated with the evaluation of the environmental impact of human activities). It furthermore provides a basis for the development of models for large catchments and urban or peri‐urban catchments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新安江模型在资料匮乏的长江中下游山区中小流域洪水预报应用

水文资料匮乏流域的洪水预报(PUBs)是水文科学与工程中一个尚未解决的重大挑战.中国湿润山区中小流域大多是水文资料匮乏的流域,在此地区进行洪水预报的重要手段之一就是水文模型参数的估计.对基于参数物理意义的估算方法(以下简称物理估算法)及两种区域化方法进行了研究,将其用于新安江模型参数的估算及移植.皖南山区的29个中小流...     

Runoff estimation for an ungauged catchment using geomorphological instantaneous unit hydrograph (GIUH) models

A geomorphological instantaneous unit hydrograph (GIUH) is derived from the geomorphological characteristics of a catchment and it is related to the parameters of the Clark instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH) model as well as the Nash IUH model for deriving its complete shape. The developed GIUH based Clark and Nash models are applied for simulation of the direct surface run‐off (DSRO) hydrographs for ten rainfall‐runoff events of the Ajay catchment up to the Sarath gauging site of eastern India. The geomorphological characteristics of the Ajay catchment are evaluated using the GIS package, Integrated Land and Water Information System (ILWIS). The performances of the GIUH based Clark and Nash models in simulating the DSRO hydrographs are compared with the Clark IUH model option of HEC‐1 package and the Nash IUH model, using some commonly used objective functions. The DSRO hydrographs are computed with reasonable accuracy by the GIUH based Clark and Nash models, which simulate the DSRO hydrographs of the catchment considering it to be ungauged. Inter comparison of the performances of the GIUH based Clark and Nash models shows that the DSRO hydrographs are estimated with comparable accuracy by both the models. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Derivation and verification of empirical catchment response time equations for medium to large catchments in South Africa

Despite uncertainties and errors in measurement, observed peak discharges are the best estimate of the true peak discharge from a catchment. However, in ungauged catchments, the catchment response time is a fundamental input to all methods of estimating peak discharges; hence, errors in estimated catchment response time directly impact on estimated peak discharges. In South Africa, this is particularly the case in ungauged medium to large catchments where practitioners are limited to use empirical methods that were calibrated on small catchments not located in South Africa. The time to peak (T_P), time of concentration (T_C) and lag time (T_L) are internationally the most frequently used catchment response time parameters and are normally estimated using either hydraulic or empirical methods. Almost 95% of all the time parameter estimation methods developed internationally are empirically based. This paper presents the derivation and verification of empirical T_P equations in a pilot scale study using 74 catchments located in four climatologically different regions of South Africa, with catchment areas ranging from 20 km² to 35 000 km². The objective is to develop unique relationships between observed T_P values and key climatological and geomorphological catchment predictor variables in order to estimate catchment T_P values at ungauged catchments. The results show that the derived empirical T_P equation(s) meet the requirement of consistency and ease of application. Independent verification tests confirmed the consistency, while the statistically significant independent predictor variables included in the regressions provide a good estimation of catchment response times and are also easy to determine by practitioners when required for future applications in ungauged catchments. It is recommended that the methodology used in this study should be expanded to other catchments to enable the development of a regional approach to improve estimation of time parameters on a national‐scale. However, such a national‐scale application would not only increase the confidence in using the suggested methodology and equation(s) in South Africa, but also highlights that a similar approach could be adopted internationally. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Use of a parsimonious rainfall–run‐off model for predicting hydrological response in ungauged basins

A new parameter parsimonious rainfall–run‐off model, the Distance Distribution Dynamics (DDD) model, is used to simulate hydrological time series at ungauged sites in the Lygne basin in Norway. The model parameters were estimated as functions of catchment characteristics determined by geographical information system. The multiple regression equations relating catchment characteristics and model parameters were trained from 84 calibrated catchments located all over Norway, and all model parameters showed significant correlations with catchment characteristics. The significant correlation coefficients (with p‐value < 0.05) ranged from 0.22 to 0.55. The suitability of DDD for predictions in ungauged basins was tested for 17 catchments not used to estimate the multiple regression equations. For ten of the 17 catchments, deviations in Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) criteria between the calibrated and regionalised model were less than 0.1, and for two calibrated catchments within the Lygne basin, the deviations were less than 0.08. The median NSE for the regionalized DDD for the 17 catchments for two time series was 0.66 and 0.72. Deviations in NSE between calibrated and regionalised models are well explained by the deviations between calibrated and regressed parameters describing spatial snow distribution and snowmelt respectively. The quality of the simulated run‐off series for the ungauged sites in the Lygne basin was assessed by comparing flow indices describing high, medium and low flow estimated from observed run‐off at the 17 catchments and for the simulated run‐off series. The indices estimated for the simulated series were generally well within the ranges defined by the 17 observed series. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Does the incorporation of process conceptualization and tracer data improve the structure and performance of a simple rainfall‐runoff model in a Scottish mesoscale catchment?

A geomorphological instantaneous unit hydrograph (GIUH) rainfall‐runoff model was applied in a 31 km² montane catchment in Scotland. Modelling was based on flow path length distributions derived from a digital terrain model (DTM). The model was applied in two ways; a single landscape unit response based on the DTM alone, and a two‐landscape unit response, which incorporated the distribution of saturated areas derived from field‐validated geographic information system (GIS) analysis based on a DTM and soil maps. This was to test the hypothesis that incorporation of process‐information would enhance the model performance. The model was applied with limited multiple event calibration to produce parameter sets which could be applied to a spectrum of events with contrasting characteristics and antecedent conditions. Gran alkalinity was used as a tracer to provide an additional objective measure for assessing model performance. The models captured the hydrological response dynamics of the catchment reasonably well. In general, the single landscape unit approach produced the best individual model performance statistics, though the two‐landscape unit approach provided a range of models, which bracketed the storm hydrograph response more realistically. There was a tendency to over‐predict the rising limb of the hydrograph, underestimate large storm event peaks and anticipate the hydrograph recession too rapidly. Most of these limitations could be explained by the simplistic assumptions embedded within the GIUH approach. The modelling also gave feasible predictions of stream water chemistry, though these could not be used as a basis for model rejection. Nevertheless, the study suggested that the approach has potential for prediction of hydrological response in ungauged montane headwater basins. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of CADISSE a regional storage capacity model

In this paper the validity of CADISSE, a regional storage capacity model developed to assess the sensitivity of catchment hydrology to climate variability, is examined. In CADISSE, catchment discharge sensitivity is expressed as the ratio of present maximum reservoir storage to catchment storage capacity. Present maximum storage should be interpreted as the maximum amount of water stored in a catchment at present. Catchment storage capacity is defined as the absolute amount of water that can be stored, given the catchment's dimensions and lithological characteristics. With CADISSE, catchment sensitivity can be quantified regionally using limited discharge data and topographic information. Furthermore, storage capacities can be assessed. CADISSE was successfully applied to 15 catchments in the Upper Loire Basin. However, successful application does not necessarily mean that the variables (present maximum storage and storage capacity) represent real world values. Therefore, a two‐step evaluation procedure is presented in this paper. To evaluate CADISSE, (1) the accurate assessment of regionally determined storage capacity, and (2) the importance of present maximum storage for catchment discharge sensitivity is examined with a daily discharge model by comparing observed and simulated catchment storage behaviour for dry and wet periods. The evaluation was carried out using the probability distributed daily discharge model, PDM, and a weather generator for three catchments with different storage capacities and storage behaviour. Results indicate that catchment storage capacity can be correctly quantified with CADISSE and that differences in storage behaviour are indeed important for analyses of catchment sensitivity. Hence, CADISSE has great potential as it can be used to identify flood‐ and drought‐prone catchments under present and future conditions. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A soft hydrological monitoring approach for comparing runoff on a network of small poorly gauged catchments

Catchments in many parts of the world are either ungauged or poorly gauged, and the dominant processes governing their streamflow response are still poorly understood. The analysis of runoff coefficients provides essential insight into catchment response, particularly if both range of catchments and a range of events are compared. This paper investigates how well the hydrological runoff of 11 small, poorly gauged catchments with ephemeral streams (0·1‐0·6 km²) can be compared using estimated runoff with the associated uncertainty. Data of rainfall and water depth at a catchment's outlet were recorded using automatic logging equipment during 2008‐2009. The hydrological regime is intermittent and the annual precipitation ranged between 569 and 727 mm. Discharge was estimated using Manning's equation and channel cross‐section measurements. Innovative work has been performed under controlled experimental conditions to estimate Manning's coefficient values for the different cover types observed in studied streams: non‐aquatic vegetations (giant reed, bramble and thistle), grass and coarse granular deposits. The results show that estimates derived using roughness coefficients differ from those previously established for larger streams with aquatic vegetation. Catchment runoff was compared at both the event and the annual scale. The results indicate significant variability between the catchment's responses. This variability allows for classification in spite of all the uncertainty associated with runoff estimation. This study highlights the potential of using a network of poorly gauged catch ments. From almost no catchment understanding the proposed methodology allows to compare poorly gauged catchments and highlights similarity/dissimilarity between catchment responses. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of peak streamflows through channel geometry / Estimation de pics de débit fluviatiles à l'aide de la géométrie des cours d'eau

Abstract

Knowledge of peak discharge is essential for safe and economical planning and design of hydraulic structures. In India, as in most developing countries, the majority of river basins are either sparsely gauged or not gauged at all. The gauged records are also of short length (generally 15–30 years), therefore development of robust models is necessary for estimation of streamflows. Various studies reveal that flood estimation through channel geometry is an alternative method for ungauged catchments. It is appropriate for use where flow characteristics are poorly related to catchment area and other catchment characteristics. In the present study, stream geometry parameters for 42 river sites in central-south India were used; calibration equations were developed with data for 35 stations and tested on data for the remaining seven stations. The relationships developed between mean discharge and channel geometry parameters provide an alternative technique for estimation of mean annual channel discharge.     

Basin-scale analysis of rainfall and runoff in Peru (1969–2004): Pacific,Titicaca and Amazonas drainages

Abstract

We present a procedure for estimating Q95 low flows in both gauged and ungauged catchments where Q95 is the flow that is exceeded 95% of the time. For each step of the estimation procedure, a number of alternative methods was tested on the Austrian data set by leave-one-out cross-validation, and the method that performed best was used in the final procedure. To maximise the accuracy of the estimates, we combined relevant sources of information including long streamflow records, short streamflow records, and catchment characteristics, according to data availability. Rather than deriving a single low flow estimate for each catchment, we estimated lower and upper confidence limits to allow local information to be incorporated in a practical application of the procedure. The components of the procedure consist of temporal (climate) adjustments for short records; grouping catchments into eight seasonality-based regions; regional regressions of low flows with catchment characteristics; spatial adjustments for exploiting local streamflow data; and uncertainty assessment. The results are maps of lower and upper confidence limits of low flow discharges for 21 000 sub-catchments in Austria.     

RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN CATCHMENT ATTRIBUTES AND HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE CHARACTERISTICS IN SMALL AUSTRALIAN MOUNTAIN ASH CATCHMENTS

Sixteen small catchments in the Maroondah region of Victoria, Australia were analysed using rainfall, temperature and streamflow time series with a rainfall–runoff model whose parameters efficiently characterize the hydrological response of a catchment. A set of catchment attributes for each of these catchments was then compared with the associated set of hydrological response characteristics of the catchments as estimated by the model. The time constant governing quickflow recession of streamflow (τ_q) was related to the drainage network and catchment area. The time constant governing slowflow recession of streamflow (τ_s) was related to the slope and shape of the catchment. The parameter governing evapotranspirative losses ( f ) was related to catchment gradient and vegetative water use. Forestry activities in the catchments changed evapotranspirative losses and thus total volume of streamflow, but did not affect the rate of streamflow recession.     

Identification of factors influencing hydrologic model performance using a top-down approach in a large number of U.S. catchments

Investigating the performance that can be achieved with different hydrological models across catchments with varying characteristics is a requirement for identifying an adequate model for any catchment, gauged or ungauged, just based on information about its climate and catchment properties. As parameter uncertainty increases with the number of model parameters, it is important not only to identify a model achieving good results but also to aim at the simplest model still able to provide acceptable results. The main objective of this study is to identify the climate and catchment properties determining the minimal required complexity of a hydrological model. As previous studies indicate that the required model complexity varies with the temporal scale, the study considers the performance at the daily, monthly, and annual timescales. In agreement with previous studies, the results show that catchments located in arid areas tend to be more difficult to model. They therefore require more complex models for achieving an acceptable performance. For determining which other factors influence model performance, an analysis was carried out for four catchment groups (snowy, arid, and eastern and western catchments). The results show that the baseflow and aridity indices are the most consistent predictors of model performance across catchment groups and timescales. Both properties are negatively correlated with model performance. Other relevant predictors are the fraction of snow in the annual precipitation (negative correlation with model performance), soil depth (negative correlation with model performance), and some other soil properties. It was observed that the sign of the correlation between the catchment characteristics and model performance varies between clusters in some cases, stressing the difficulties encountered in large sample analyses. Regarding the impact of the timescale, the study confirmed previous results indicating that more complex models are needed for shorter timescales.     

Direct estimation of catchment response time parameters in medium to large catchments using observed streamflow data

In single‐event deterministic design flood estimation methods, estimates of the peak discharge are based on a single and representative catchment response time parameter. In small catchments, a simplified convolution process between a single‐observed hyetograph and hydrograph is generally used to estimate time parameters such as the time to peak (T_P), time of concentration (T_C), and lag time (T_L) to reflect the “observed” catchment response time. However, such simplification is neither practical nor applicable in medium to large heterogeneous catchments, where antecedent moisture from previous rainfall events and spatially non‐uniform rainfall hyetographs can result in multi‐peaked hydrographs. In addition, the paucity of rainfall data at sub‐daily timescales further limits the reliable estimation of catchment responses using observed hyetographs and hydrographs at these catchment scales. This paper presents the development of a new and consistent approach to estimate catchment response times, expressed as the time to peak (T_Px) obtained directly from observed streamflow data. The relationships between catchment response time parameters and conceptualised triangular‐shaped hydrograph approximations and linear catchment response functions are investigated in four climatologically regions of South Africa. Flood event characteristics using primary streamflow data from 74 flow‐gauging stations were extracted and analysed to derive unique relationships between peak discharge, baseflow, direct runoff, and catchment response time in terms of T_Px. The T_Px parameters are estimated from observed streamflow data using three different methods: (a) duration of total net rise of a multipeaked hydrograph, (b) triangular‐shaped direct runoff hydrograph approximations, and (c) linear catchment response functions. The results show that for design hydrology and for the derivation of empirical equations to estimate catchment response times in ungauged catchments, the catchment T_Px should be estimated from both the use of an average catchment T_Px value computed using either Methods (a) or (b) and a linear catchment response function as used in Method (c). The use of the different methods in combination is not only practical but is also objective and has consistent results.     

Uncertainty in index flood modelling due to calibration data sizes

Regional frequency analysis is an important tool in estimating design flood for ungauged catchments. Index flood is an important component in regionalized flood formulas. In the past, many formulas have been developed based on various numbers of calibration catchments (e.g. from less than 20 to several hundred). However, there is a lack of systematic research on the model uncertainties caused by the number of calibration catchments (i.e. what is the minimum number of calibration catchment? and how should we choose the calibration catchments?). This study uses the statistical resampling technique to explore the impact of calibration catchment numbers on the index flood estimation. The study is based on 182 catchments in England and an index flood formula has been developed using the input variable selection technique in the data mining field. The formula has been used to explore the model uncertainty due to a range of calibration catchment numbers (from 15 to 130). It is found that (1) as expected, the more catchments are used in the calibration, the more reliable of the models developed are (i.e. with a narrower band of uncertainty); (2) however, poor models are still possible with a large number of calibration catchments (e.g. 130). In contrast, good models with a small number of calibration catchments are also achievable (with as low as 15 calibration catchments). This indicates that the number of calibration catchments is only one of the factors influencing the model performance. The hydrological community should explore why a smaller calibration data set could produce a better model than a large calibration data set. It is clear from this study that the information content in the calibration data set is equally if not more important than the number of calibration data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nonparametric catchment clustering using the data depth function

ABSTRACT

The clustering of catchments is important for prediction in ungauged basins, model parameterization and watershed development and management. The aim of this study is to explore a new measure of similarity among catchments, using a data depth function and comparing it with catchment clustering indices based on flow and physical characteristics. A cluster analysis was performed for each similarity measure using the affinity propagation clustering algorithm. We evaluated the similarity measure based on depth–depth plots (DD-plots) as a basis for transferring parameter sets of a hydrological model between catchments. A case study was developed with 21 catchments in a diverse New Zealand region. Results show that clustering based on the depth–depth measure is dissimilar to clustering on catchment characteristics, flow, or flow indices. A hydrological model was calibrated for the 21 catchments and the transferability of model parameters among similar catchments was tested within and between clusters defined by each clustering method. The mean model performance for parameters transferred within a group always outperformed those from outside the group. The DD-plot based method was found to produce the best in-group performance and second-highest difference between in-group and out-group performance.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR A. Viglione