Robust strategies for climate change adaptation in the agricultural sector under deep climate uncertainty

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - Adaptive planning in climate change condition is a significant challenge for effective management of water resources and agricultural...     

How the climate drives sea-level changes

In the 2007 Bullerwell Lecture, Glenn Milne considers the mechanisms and consequences of sea-level changes driven by climate change and finds a surprisingly variable response, worldwide.     

Assessing the effect of climate natural variability in water resources evaluation impacted by climate change

Water resource assessment on climate change is crucial in water resource planning and management. This issue is becoming more urgent with climate change intensifying. In the current research of climate change impact, climate natural variability (fluctuation) has seldom been studied separately. Many studies keep attributing all changes (e.g. runoff) to climate change, which may lead to wrong understanding of climate change impact assessment. Because of lack of long enough historical series, impacts of climate variability have been always avoided deliberately. Based on Latin hypercube sampling technique, a block sampling approach was proposed for climate variability simulation in this study. The widely used time horizon (1961–1991) was defined as baseline period, and the runoff variation probability affected by climate natural variability was analysed. Allowing for seven future climate projections in total of three GCMs (CSIRO, NCAR, and MPI) and three emission scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1), the impact of future climate change on water resources was estimated in terms of separating the contribution from climate natural variability. Based on the analysis of baseline period, for the future period from 2021 to 2051, the impact of climate natural variability may play a major part, whereas for the period from 2061 to 2091, climate change attributed to greenhouse gases may dominate the changing process. The results show that changes from climate variability possess a comparable magnitude, which highlights the importance to separate impacts of climate variability in assessing climate change, instead of attributing all changes to climate change solely. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regional climate change in the Northern Adriatic

An analysis of the climate change signal for seasonal temperature and precipitation over the Northern Adriatic region is presented here. We collected 43 regional climate simulations covering the target area, including experiments produced in the context of the PRUDENCE and ENSEMBLES projects, and additional experiments produced by the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. The ability of the models to simulate the present climate in terms of mean and interannual variability is discussed and the insufficient reproduction of some features, such as the intensity of summer precipitation, are shown. The contribution to the variance associated with the intermodel spread is computed. The changes of mean and interannual variability are analyzed for the period 2071–2100 in the PRUDENCE runs (A2 scenario) and the periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 (A1B scenario) for the other runs. Ensemble results show a major warming at the end of the 21st century. Warming will be larger in the A2 scenario (about 5.5 K in summer and 4 K in winter) than in the A1B. Precipitation is projected to increase in winter and decrease in summer by 20% (+0.5 mm/day and −1 mm/day over the Alps, respectively). The climate change signal for scenario A1B in the period 2021–2050 is significant for temperature, but not yet for precipitation. In summer, interannual variability is projected to increase for temperature and for precipitation. Winter interannual variability change is different among scenarios. A reduction of precipitation is found for A2, while for A1B a reduction of temperature interannual variability is observed.     

Volcanoes, the stratosphere, and climate

A list of volcanic eruption plumes observed to ascend into or near the stratosphere since 1883 shows that the volcanoes divide readily into two groups, one at low and one at higher latitudes. A model for the rise of a buoyant volcanic plume rise as applied to volcanic eruptions is corrected for realistic temperature profiles and for the finite vertical extent of the resultant debris clouds. The utility of the model can be questioned, however, owing to the highly uncertain and variable nature of the efficiency of use of heat energy of buoyant rise. The observed correlation of stratospheric plumes with climatic effects indicates that those plumes nearer the equator have the largest impact on surface temperatures. Analysis of the observations also suggests that injection of debris into the stratosphere is more important in determining the effect on climate than either the total volcanic explosivity of the eruption or the actual height reached within the stratosphere.     

Comets and climate

No connection between comets and climate has been proposed until now; here, we show that such a connection exists. We use a model to evaluate the shadowing effect due to cometary dust released by comet 1P/Halley in the inner solar system. We find that comet Halley has left a detectable fingerprint in the climate records of the last two millennia. The print shows up as a periodic cooling of the order of 0.08 °C. This temperature drop is comparable with other natural fluctuations. The finding will add a brick to our knowledge of the climate system and could allow to improve our predictive capacity of future climate.     

Simulations of LGM climate of East Asia by regional climate model

ClimateconditionsintheLastGlacialMaximum(LGM)wereremarkablydifferentfromthepresentones.LGMglobalmeantemperaturewas5℃-10℃dropbutprecipitationdecreasescommonly.LGMhasbecomethekeyphasetoreconstructtheearthenvironmentalfield,retrieveextremecoldclimatecondit…     

Homogenization of climate series:The basis for assessing climate changes

Long-term meteorological observation series are fundamental for reflecting climate changes.However,almost all meteorological stations inevitably undergo relocation or changes in observation instruments,rules,and methods,which can result in systematic biases in the observation series for corresponding periods.Homogenization is a technique for adjusting these biases in order to assess the true trends in the time series.In recent years,homogenization has shifted its focus from the adjustments to climate mean status to the adjustments to information about climate extremes or extreme weather.Using case analyses of ideal and actual climate series,here we demonstrate the basic idea of homogenization,introduce new understanding obtained from recent studies of homogenization of climate series in China,and raise issues for further studies in this field,especially with regards to climate extremes,uncertainty of the statistical adjustments,and biased physical relationships among different climate variables due to adjustments in single variable series.     

Sensitivity of the central Asian climate to uplift of the Tibetan Plateau in the coupled climate model (MRI-CGCM1)

Abstract   The relationship between the altitude of the Tibetan Plateau and climate change in central Asia was investigated through a numeric experiment using the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model I (MRI-CGCM1). The results suggest that summer precipitation in central Asia decreased significantly as the Tibetan Plateau rose in height. Spring precipitation, however, increased during initial growth stages when the plateau height was up to 40% of its present-day height, and then decreased with further plateau growth. During the Tibetan Plateau uplift, the difference between precipitation and evaporation was minimal during spring. When the plateau attained a height exceeding 60% of its present height, relatively low precipitation but high evaporation in spring led to a lower amount of ground moisture. In the case of the high plateau, sensible heat flux during summer and fall largely exceeded latent heat flux. Change was particularly significant for cases when the plateau reached 40–60% of its present-day height. The duration of the predominant sensible heat flux became longer with the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau. The period in which latent heat exceeded sensible heat seems to have been restricted to winter and early spring. The numeric experiments suggest that a significant drying of central Asia corresponded to the period in which the Tibetan Plateau exceeded approximately half its present-day height.     

Comprehensive wave climate analysis of the Uruguayan coast

Ocean Dynamics - A detailed analysis of how the wave climate gradually varies from the Atlantic coast to the Rio de la Plata (RDP) estuary coast of Uruguay is undertaken, exploiting a recently...     

Modelling the impact of solar variability on climate

Computer simulations of the impact on climate of solar variability generally fall into four categories. First, there are lower atmosphere GCM experiments, in which enhanced solar activity is represented by changes in spectrally integrated solar constant. Secondly, there are GCM studies of the dynamical response of the middle atmosphere to changes in solar ultraviolet, mainly concentrating on the northern hemisphere winter, and how these impact the troposphere. These studies have been instructive in providing an understanding of some of the mechanisms involved but, because of the very different nature of the assumptions made, give rather different suggestions as to potential patterns of change. In particular predicted zonal mean temperature changes in the lower stratosphere are usually of opposite sign in these two types of experiment. None of these GCM studies include interactive photochemistry and the third category of modelling work is concerned with the photochemical response of the middle atmosphere to enhanced solar ultraviolet. These generally employ 2D models to predict changes in ozone and other gaseous species. Recently it has been realised that the responses (to a variety of external forcings) of the lower and middle atmospheres are linked through both radiative and dynamical mechanisms and should not be viewed in isolation from each other. Thus the fourth type of modelling study, which is still in its infancy, attempts to represent solar variability by realistic changes in both irradiance and ozone concentrations. In this paper these various modelling studies are reviewed and some new results presented which confirm previous theoretical suggestions that, in the northern hemisphere winter, the atmosphere may respond to solar changes in a similar way as to the injection of volcanic aerosol. The implications of the results of the model studies for the detection of solar-induced climate change are discussed.     

Dissolved inorganic carbon in the ocean and climate

Changes in the climate conditions in the recent decade arouse the heightened interest to the problem of the greenhouse effect and consequently to studying the dynamics of CO₂ concentration in the ocean-atmosphere system. The modern changes in CO₂ concentration and temperature can result both from the anthropogenic influence and from the rhythms of natural processes. The results of modelling carbon equilibrium in the World Ocean water for the Quaternary suggest that the modern climate change is a part of natural climate variations having taken place for at least more than 400 thousand years.     

The role of the stratosphere in climate change

A variety of climate perturbations have the potential to alter the thermodynamic and dynamical characteristics of the middle atmosphere, which may then affect tropospheric climate. Increased thermal emission from rising stratospheric CO₂ levels and scattering of solar radiation from stratospheric volcanic aerosols have a direct impact on surface temperatures, while variations in stratospheric water vapor and ozone can affect tropospheric temperatures. Observations and modeling experiments suggest that these perturbations, as well as solar irradiance variations operating through the stratosphere, may affect tropospheric dynamics, such as planetary wave amplitudes and Hadley cell intensity. In addition, climate changes will probably alter tropospheric/stratospheric exchange, with the potential for modifying trace gas distributions and climate forcing. These issues are reviewed in the light of the incorporation of middle atmosphere studies into IGBP.     

Stratosphere amplifies the global climate effect of wildfires

The summer of 2019 witnessed a great number of wildfires around the globe.For example,wildfires scorched huge swaths of Alaska,British Columbia in Canada,and parts of Greenland.And forest fires in Siberia and the Far East of Russia were also very serious,affecting nearly 3 million hectares of land,and putting some parts of Russia into a state of emergency.In particular,forest fires in the Amazon region had attracted global attention.According to Science,as of August 24,BraziPs National Institute for Space Research had counted more than 41000 fires this year,86%more than last year,compared with 22000 in the same period last year.Scientists in Brazil and elsewhere believe that the recent increase of wildfires is closely related to the increasing ac・tivities of deforestation(Arruda et al.,2019;Escobar,2019).     

Future wave climate over the west-European shelf seas

In this paper, we investigate changes in the wave climate of the west-European shelf seas under global warming scenarios. In particular, climate change wind fields corresponding to the present (control) time-slice 1961–2000 and the future (scenario) time-slice 2061–2100 are used to drive a wave generation model to produce equivalent control and scenario wave climate. Yearly and seasonal statistics of the scenario wave climates are compared individually to the corresponding control wave climate to identify relative changes of statistical significance between present and future extreme and prevailing wave heights. Using global, regional and linked global–regional wind forcing over a set of nested computational domains, this paper further demonstrates the sensitivity of the results to the resolution and coverage of the forcing. It suggests that the use of combined forcing from linked global and regional climate models of typical resolution and coverage is a good option for the investigation of relative wave changes in the region of interest of this study. Coarse resolution global forcing alone leads to very similar results over regions that are highly exposed to the Atlantic Ocean. In contrast, fine resolution regional forcing alone is shown to be insufficient for exploring wave climate changes over the western European waters because of its limited coverage. Results obtained with the combined global–regional wind forcing showed some consistency between scenarios. In general, it was shown that mean and extreme wave heights will increase in the future only in winter and only in the southwest of UK and west of France, north of about 44–45° N. Otherwise, wave heights are projected to decrease, especially in summer. Nevertheless, this decrease is dominated by local wind waves whilst swell is found to increase. Only in spring do both swell and local wind waves decrease in average height.     

长白山天池火山喷发的气候效应

约发生于１０００年前的长白山天池火山喷发对全球气候产生过非常显著的影响，本文用一二维能量平衡模式模拟了天地火山的那次喷发对全球气候的影响。结果表明：天池火山喷发形成的平流层气溶胶可维持３年长的时间，并对到达地表的太阳辐射有非常明显的削弱。引起的北半球平均最大降温可达０．８５℃。天池火山大喷发对全球气候影响的时间超过６年。     

Flux correction and the simulation of changing climate

A flaw is pointed out in the manner in which flux correction is currently applied to coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. If a transient climate simulation were carried out using perfect initial data and a perfect model, then a perfect simulation would be made. However, if the model were flux corrected so that it is in equilibrium for current conditions, according to current practice, then errors in the simulation would grow initially to a finite amplitude and persist indefinitely. Larger errors would be produced by a simulation with the flux corrected model beginning from pre-industrial conditions than by a simulation beginning from current conditions. An example with a simple linear model is constructed to illustrate this point, and the relationship to the cold start problem is demonstrated. An optimal flux correction for the simple example is shown to be one which would eliminate the error in the current climate from a transient simulation begun sufficiently far in the past.     

Using raw regional climate model outputs for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology

General circulation model outputs are rarely used directly for quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology, due to their coarse resolution and inherent bias. Bias correction methods are usually applied to correct the statistical deviations of climate model outputs from the observed data. However, the use of bias correction methods for impact studies is often disputable, due to the lack of physical basis and the bias nonstationarity of climate model outputs. With the improvement in model resolution and reliability, it is now possible to investigate the direct use of regional climate model (RCM) outputs for impact studies. This study proposes an approach to use RCM simulations directly for quantifying the hydrological impacts of climate change over North America. With this method, a hydrological model (HSAMI) is specifically calibrated using the RCM simulations at the recent past period. The change in hydrological regimes for a future period (2041–2065) over the reference (1971–1995), simulated using bias‐corrected and nonbias‐corrected simulations, is compared using mean flow, spring high flow, and summer–autumn low flow as indicators. Three RCMs driven by three different general circulation models are used to investigate the uncertainty of hydrological simulations associated with the choice of a bias‐corrected or nonbias‐corrected RCM simulation. The results indicate that the uncertainty envelope is generally watershed and indicator dependent. It is difficult to draw a firm conclusion about whether one method is better than the other. In other words, the bias correction method could bring further uncertainty to future hydrological simulations, in addition to uncertainty related to the choice of a bias correction method. This implies that the nonbias‐corrected results should be provided to end users along with the bias‐corrected ones, along with a detailed explanation of the bias correction procedure. This information would be especially helpful to assist end users in making the most informed decisions.