Flood changes during the past 50 years in Wujiang River,South China

Changing trends of peak flood and flood duration in the Wujiang River Basin are detected with the help of the Mann–Kendall test and the Pettitt analysis during the past 50 years. Results indicate that the peak flood and the flood duration at Lishi Station have different changing features. The peak flood showed only marginally increasing trend, whereas the flood duration exhibited decreasing trend at the significance level of 90%. The result shows a weak positive correlation between the peak flood and the flood duration. The changes of flood duration are influenced by the total rainfall duration, which is in downward trend at significance level 90%. In addition, the changing trends of peak flood are similar to the total rainfall amount. In the change‐point analysis, it was found that the change points for the peak flood and flood duration series were in the years 1993 and 1966, respectively. Human activities such as the construction of reservoirs were the main driving forces causing the change of flood duration. The periodicity of the peak flood during the period 1955–2007 at Lishi Station is detected by using the wavelet analysis. The result indicates that the peak flood at Lishi Station displayed alternation between big floods and small floods on the 25‐ to 26‐year period. At the same timescale, the peak flood of Wujiang River showed an evidence of change between big floods and small floods. It was essential to be prepared and aware of the consequences of climate changes and human influences affecting the water resources in the Wujiang River Basin. This result is expected to draw more attention from the local governments in its decision making and water resource management. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

鄱阳湖流域过去1000 a径流模拟以及对气候变化响应研究

为研究过去千年尺度径流变化及其对气候变化的响应,以长江中游鄱阳湖流域为研究区,运用气候模式CCSM4和ECHAM5模拟过去1000 a气候数据,空间降尺度后驱动水文模型模拟了鄱阳湖流域过去近千年流域径流序列.利用快速傅里叶变换、小波分析等手段,分析流域极端径流变化特征、周期和该流域旱涝事件发生频率.结果表明:2种气候模式均能反映出中世纪暖期及小冰期阶段的干湿交替变化,且小冰期内中干旱状态维持时间较长;径流的丰枯变化与降水量变化具有较好的对应关系.CCSM4和ECHAM5模式下发生旱涝灾害与极大极小降水事件发生频率基本相同,径流丰枯变化与降水变化周期相近,均具有30 a左右的主周期,10~15、7 a左右的子周期.小波系数模平方图中30 a左右显著的能量信号揭示了该周期与北太平洋气候的主要环流机制的太平洋年代际振荡周期相近,因此,大气环流涛动是造成气候-水文变化的主要原因.研究结果拓展了基于近代60 a观测记录的流域水文变化的认识,探讨了千年时间长度下流域干湿变化特征和水文对气候响应的动力机制,有助于全面系统认识长江中游在全球气候暖化背景下旱涝极端水文事件的发生机制与变化规律.     

Cropland cover change in Northeast China during the past 300 years

Land use/cover change induced by human activities has emerged as a “global” phenomenon with Earth system consequences. Northeast China is an area where the largest land cultivation activities by migrants have happened in China during the past 300 years. In this paper, methods including documentary data calibration and multi-sourced data conversion model are used to reconstruct historical cropland cover change in Northeast China during the past 300 years. It is concluded that human beings have remarkably changed the natural landscape of the region by land cultivation in the past 300 years. Cropland area has increased almost exponentially during the past 300 years, especially during the past 100 years when the ratio of cropland cover changed from 10% to 20%. Until the middle of the 19th century, the agricultural area was still mainly restricted in Liaoning Province. From the late 19th century to the early 20th century, dramatic changes took place when the northern boundary of cultivation had extended to the middle of Heilongjiang Province. During the 20th century, three agricultural regions with high ratio of cropland cover were formed after the two phases of spatial expansion of cropland area in 1900s–1930s and 1950s–1980s. Since 1930s–1940s, the expansion of new cultivated area have invaded the forest lands especially in Jilin and Heilongjiang Provinces. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40571165) and Innovation Foundation of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2-YW-315)     

Carbon emissions induced by farmland expansion in China during the past 300 years

Scientific assessment of the accounting over carbon in the terrestrial ecosystem in the process land use/land cover changes caused by human activities will help reduce the uncertainty in estimating carbon emissions from the terrestrial ecosystem. This study employs a bookkeeping model to estimate the carbon emissions from farmland reclamation in China during the past 300 years based on the annual rate of land use changes(derived from historical natural vegetation, farmland data), preset carbon density and coefficients of disturbance curves. We find out that:(1) there was a net increase of 79.30×10~4km~2 in national farmland; about 65% of reclaimed farmland had been forest land and 26% of that had been grass land previously;(2) the total amount of carbon emissions from farmland expansion in China had been between 2.94 and 5.61 Pg with the median 3.78 Pg during the past 300 years; specifically, carbon emissions of vegetation were 1.58 Pg while those of soil ranged from 1.35 Pg to4.03 Pg with the median 2.20 Pg;(3) carbon emissions vary greatly across various ecosystems: the emissions were most from forest land, and then grass land and swamps, and the least from shrubs; deserts functioned more likely to be carbon stock in the process of land reclamation;(4) along the time line, carbon emissions had decreased first and then increased while the peak emissions occurred in the first half of 20 th century; and spatially, carbon emissions were most released in Northeast and Southwest China; Northwest China was of the minimum carbon emissions.     

过去2000年以来地磁偶极子的长期变化

利用地磁场模型资料,计算和分析了公元0～2000年的地磁场偶极子磁矩和地磁北极位置的长期变化。结果表明:过去2000年中,地磁场的偶极子磁矩并非一直减小,有近400年的时间是持续增长的。地磁北极位置的移动并不均匀,在纬度方向的变化范围只有10°左右,经度方向变化有255°。     

Carbon emissions induced by cropland expansion in Northeast China during the past 300 years

Assessments of the impacts of land use and land cover changes(LUCC) on the terrestrial carbon budget, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and CO2-related climatic change are important to understand the environmental effects of LUCC and provide information about the effects of historical carbon emissions. Using regional land cover reconstructions from historical records, with a bookkeeping model, we estimated the carbon sink changes caused by historical cropland expansion in Northeast China during the past 300 years. The conclusions are as follows:(1) There was a dramatic land reclamation of cropland during the past 300 years in Northeast China. Approximately 26% of the natural land was cultivated, and 38% of the grassland and 20% of the forest and shrubland were converted to cropland.(2) The carbon emission induced by cropland expansion between 1683 and 1980 was 1.06–2.55 Pg C, and the estimation from the moderate scenario was 1.45 Pg C. The carbon emissions of the soil carbon pool was larger than that from the vegetation carbon pool and comprised more than 2/3 of the total carbon emissions.(3) The carbon emissions of the three provinces in Northeast China were different. Heilongjiang Province had the largest carbon emissions, and Jilin Province had the second largest emissions.(4) The primary source of carbon emissions was forest reclamation(taking 60% of the total emissions in the moderate scenario), the secondary source was grassland cultivation(taking 27%), and the tertiary sources were shrubland and wetland reclamation(taking 13%). Examination on the data accuracy revealed that the high-resolution regional land cover data allowed the carbon budget to be evaluated at the county level and improved the precision of the results. The carbon emission estimation in this study was lower than those in previous studies because of the improved land use data quality and various types of land use change considered.     

青藏高原达则错近1000年来生态系统变化及可能机制

在全球变化的背景下,厘清湖泊生态系统对气候环境以及人类活动的响应机制对制定社会的适应政策非常重要.目前的研究手段如现场观测和围隔实验等可以很好地揭示湖泊生态系统在有观测记录以来的演替和变化过程,但是不能提供历史时期湖泊生态系统的变化及其对气候环境变化和人类活动的响应.古湖沼学可以为探讨湖泊生态系统的长期变化及其对气候环...     

Dasuopu ice core record of atmospheric methane over the past 2000 years

The concentrations of CH₄ in the atmosphere over the past 2000 years have been deduced by extracting and analyzing the air in bubbles embedded in the Dasuopu ice core, Qing-hai-Tibetan Plateau. Upon analyzing 57 ice core samples we found that the concentration of CH₄ 200 years ago and earlier was 0.85 μ mol· mol^-1 or about 40% of present atmospheric CH₄ levels over Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. A rapid and significant increase of atmospheric CH₄ started about 200–250 a ago. For a given age before 19th century, the Dasuopu CH₄ concentrations were about 15%-20% higher than those in Antarctic and Greenland references. It was also found that the Dasuopu CH₄ concentrations changed more frequently, and its fluctuations could reflect the temperature change sensitively.     

2.5ka来新疆吉力湖湖泊沉积记录的气候环境变化

选择位于西风区的吉力湖为研究对象,利用~(210)Pb、~(137)Cs和AMS~(14)C测年手段,建立了吉力湖沉积岩芯2.5ka以来的时间序列。对湖泊沉积物的粒度、总有机碳、总氮以及有机碳同位素等多环境指标的综合分析,重建了吉力湖2.5ka以来的气候环境演化特征。2.5ka以来吉力湖气候环境变化大致经历了5个阶段:500BC-50BC,暖干;50BC-650AD,冷湿,气候不稳定,冷暖波动较大;650-1350AD,暖干,对应于中世纪暖期(MWP),1350-1850AD,冷干,对应于小冰期(LIA);1850AD以来,温干,其中20世纪20年代后,尤其是70年代以来,气候变暖。吉力湖多环境指标记录的气候环境变化与其它地质记录以及历史文献记录均具有较好的一致性。     

Spatiotemporal changes of epidemics and their relationship with human living environments in China over the past 2200 years

正Epidemics are biological disasters resulting from the widespread occurrence of acute and severe infectious diseases that are normally caused by viruses, bacteria and parasites.They are amongst the most destructive of all natural disasters suffered by humans (Gong, 2019). The pathogens that cause epidemics have always existed in nature, understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of past epidemics is important for preventing and controlling future epidemics.     

Differences in the evolutionary pattern of dust storms over the past 2000 years between eastern and western China and the driving mechanisms

Science China Earth Sciences -     

近400年来湖北大九湖泥炭地摇蚊对湿度变化的响应

神农架大九湖泥炭地是华中地区少有的亚高山泥炭藓湿地,是研究长江中游气候变化及其生态效应的理想区域.本文通过大九湖一根泥炭岩芯的年代学、元素及摇蚊亚化石记录,结合区域古气候资料,探讨大九湖泥炭地地表干湿变化历史及生物响应过程.结果表明,近400年来大九湖泥炭地古水文和摇蚊种群变化经历了3个主要阶段：1820s之前研究区内气候偏冷湿,尤其是1720s-1820s年间,冷湿的环境有利于泥炭中碳的大量积累,较高的地表有效湿度使得摇蚊大量生长,同时湖泊相摇蚊属种丰富度及含量均较高;1820s-1940s年间,区域内夏季降水量显著降低,同时伴随明显的区域增温过程,泥炭地地表有效湿度过低不利于水生生物生长,摇蚊种群生物量极低;1940s （尤其1970s）后,摇蚊种群丰度逐渐回升,但湖泊相摇蚊丰度较1820s以前明显降低,半陆生摇蚊属种丰度有所增加,说明尽管该时期泥炭地表湿度有所增加,但较1820s前仍较低,暖湿气候下泥炭分解也较为明显.本研究探索性地分析了气候变化背景下泥炭地摇蚊种群对泥炭地湿度变化的响应过程,这不仅为摇蚊亚化石在气候变化研究中的应用开拓了新的领域,同时也为全面、精准地理解泥炭地演化及区域环境变化过程提供了新线索.     

近百年来洱海沉积物有机碳埋藏时空变化

湖泊沉积物有机碳埋藏是陆地碳循环中重要的环节,对全球碳平衡起着重要的作用.洱海是云贵高原第二大淡水湖,目前对洱海生态环境变化、重金属与营养盐污染等已展开了较为深入的研究,但对近百年来沉积物有机碳埋藏时空变化与驱动因素缺乏系统的分析.本文通过对洱海北部湖区典型岩芯（编号EH2012）以及其他湖区13个沉积岩芯中有机碳（OC）含量的分析,结合湖泊生态环境与气候因子变化,研究了近百年来沉积物有机碳埋藏时空变化特征与影响因素.C/N摩尔比值表明洱海沉积物中OC以湖泊内源为主,不同湖区岩芯中OC含量变化趋势基本相似.以EH2012岩芯为例,OC含量历史变化可分为3个阶段：1970年以前,表现出较稳定的低值;1970-2000年,OC含量逐渐增加;2000年以来,OC含量增加更加明显并达到近百年来的最大值.近百年来,EH2012岩芯有机碳累积速率（OCAR）呈逐渐增加趋势,变化范围为7.9~87.2 g/（m²·a）,平均OCAR（OCAR）为24.1 g/（m²·a）;OCAR变化与OC含量和区域气温呈显著正相关,全球变暖与营养驱动下的湖泊生产力提高可能是近年来OCAR增加的主要原因之一.基于重金属Cd污染初始时间建立的时标,1982年以来不同湖区OCAR为17.1~44.7 g/（m²·a）,采用克里金插值得到的全湖OCAR均值为31.4 g/（m²·a）;不同湖区OCAR与磷累积速率呈显著正相关,指示了湖泊营养水平对有机碳埋藏空间变化的重要影响.     

内蒙古东乌珠穆沁旗乌拉盖高毕湖泊沉积记录的5万年来环境演变

中国北方季风边缘区的湖泊对环境的反应很敏感,乌拉盖高毕是位于内蒙古高原东北部的一个已干涸的内陆封闭湖泊.研究剖面总厚度为405 cm,根据取得的9个AMS¹⁴C及光释光测年数据,建立了51.9 ka BP以来的年代序列.结合岩性的变化、粒度组分分析、粒度参数(标准偏差、偏度、峰度等)及Rb/Sr比值特征进行了详细的分析,恢复了乌拉盖高毕湖泊沉积记录的5万年来的环境演化过程.将0~405 cm的剖面划分为4个较大的气候阶段:51.9-44.1 ka BP(405~343 cm),气候为干冷期,各环境指标显示为滨湖沉积,湖泊水位较低;44.1-28.5 ka BP(343~130 cm),气候为温湿期,湖泊逐渐扩张,湖泊水位升高;28.5-11.38 ka BP(130~35 cm),气候转冷,湖面萎缩,并在盛冰期出现砂楔,该阶段后期湖泊干涸;11.38 ka BP至今(35~0 cm),气温回升.     

近50 a中国东部和西部湖区水量空间变化趋势

基于近代湖泊水量(水位、水深和面积)记录,对近50 a中国东部和西部湖区水量的空间变化趋势进行半定量研究.结果表明:整体上看,20世纪80年代以前,东部湖区水量呈现波动变化而西部湖区水量基本趋于减少;80年代以后东部和西部湖区水量均表现为不同程度的增加.其中,20世纪50年代,东部和西部湖区水量状况基本相似,均保持高湖面特征.20世纪60年代,东部湖区水量有所减少但幅度不明显,而西部湖区以中高水量为主.20世纪70年代,不同区域湖泊基本都保持中湖面特征.20世纪80年代,东部湖区水量呈增加趋势而西部湖区水量相对70年代略有减少.20世纪90年代,东部和西部湖区水量均表现为增加趋势.进一步研究发现,最近50 a来中国不同区域湖泊水量发生变化除了气候因素的驱动外,人类活动的影响也是不可忽视的.     

2000-2010年东北地区湖泊动态变化及驱动力分析

以2000、2005和2010年的Landsat TM和ETM遥感影像为主要数据源,利用面向对象的分类方法,提取3期东北地区湖泊数据;在GIS技术的支持下,分析了过去10年东北地区湖泊的时空变化特征,并对导致湖泊面积变化的自然和人文驱动因素进行分析.结果表明:2000-2010年间,东北地区湖泊面积由12234.02 km²减少至11307.58 km²,其中,2005-2010年间湖泊萎缩剧烈程度大于2000-2005年;湖泊数量先增加后减少,10年间共减少了4092个;10年间天然湖泊面积大幅减少,人工湖泊面积略增加;研究区内西北方向湖泊萎缩程度小于东南方向,质心向西北偏移;湖泊变化受自然因素和人类活动的共同影响,人类活动叠加在自然因素之上,对湖泊变化产生了放大作用.     

抚仙湖沉积物多指标记录的过去5000年湖泊环境变化

我国西南地区湖泊众多,利用湖泊沉积物已开展了大量全新世植被、降水、温度和水位等的重建工作.然而,代用指标的季节性差异和气候演变的区域差异使得不同代用指标和地区重建的古气候结果存在较大差异,需要更多可靠记录来相互佐证和构建我国西南地区气候变化的详细图景.本文以云南抚仙湖FXH-6钻孔沉积物为研究对象,对正构烷烃和色度指标作了分析,在厘清其来源及环境指示意义的基础上,重建过去近5000年抚仙湖有机质的来源和湖泊水位的变化,探讨了湖泊环境变化与区域气候变化的关系.结果表明,抚仙湖沉积物中正构烷烃n-C₂₃和n-C₃₁可有效指示内源沉水植物和外源陆生植物.近5000年抚仙湖湖泊环境经历了3个阶段:在5000—2300 cal a BP阶段,沉水植物广泛分布,湖泊水位处于高位;在2300—2000 cal a BP阶段,抚仙湖沉积环境快速变化,内源沉水植物生物量锐减,水位快速下降;2000 cal a BP至今,沉水植物生物量持续减少,湖泊水位保持低水位;同时,人类活动也影响了该阶段(2000 cal a BP至今)陆源植物的输入.本研究重建的抚仙湖持续降低的水位变化和湖泊生产力趋势与过去5000年西南地区的年平均温逐渐降低、年平均降水量逐渐减小的总体趋势相对应,表明区域气候变化是湖泊沉积环境变化的主要驱动力.     

Temperature variations along the Silk Road over the past 2000 years: Integration and perspectives

Reconstructing temperature changes along the Silk Road(SR) over the last two millennia can provide insights into past global changes and their impact on the rise and fall of ancient civilizations in this region. Numerous high-quality single-site paleotemperature records have been produced for the eastern part of the SR(mainly for the Xinjiang region and its surrounding areas), which provide the data basis for a comprehensive synthesis. In this study, we used objective criteria to select 10 highq...     

Changes in geomagnetic activity and global temperature during the past 40 years

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of geomagnetic activity (used as a measure of solar wind parameters) on the variability of large-scale climate patterns and on changes in the global temperature. We show that positive statistically significant correlations between global temperature and the distribution of surface temperature over Eurasia, the East and Equatorial Pacific and over the North Atlantic for the period 1966?C2009 correspond to large-scale climate patterns defined by climate indices. We found very similar positive correlations between geomagnetic activity and the distribution of surface temperature in the mentioned regions. As an effect of geomagnetic storms, energetic particles penetrate from the magnetosphere into the region of the stratospheric polar vortex. The increase of temperature and pressure can be observed over northern Canada. The vortex shifts towards Europe, rotates counter-clockwise and the wind blows from the polar region over Greenland southwards. It diverts the warm flow proceeding northward over the Atlantic, eastward along the deep Icelandic low extending as far as the Barents Sea and takes part in warming Eurasia. The strengthened zonal flow from Siberia cools the western Pacific with the impact on the warming of the equatorial and eastern Pacific when also a distinct 1976?C78 climate shift occurred. Processes in the Atlantic and Pacific play a significant role and a time delay (wind forcing over the previous 1?C4 yr) appears to be the most important for the relocation of the oceanic gyres. Results showing statistically significant relations between time series for geomagnetic activity, for the sum of climate indices and for the global temperature help to verify findings concerning the chain of processes from the magnetosphere to the troposphere.     

滇西北地区高山湖泊沃迪错近两百年来环境变化及枝角类群落响应

区域增温和大气氮沉降作用已成为高山湖泊面临的重要环境胁迫,已有高山湖泊生物群落响应的长期模式研究主要集中于藻类而缺乏更高营养级生物(如浮游动物)的系统调查。本研究选择滇西北地区深水型的高山湖泊沃迪错开展沉积物调查,通过多指标分析(总氮、总磷、叶绿素a、氮稳定同位素等)并结合区域气候重建记录,识别近两百年来该湖泊及流域环境的变化历史,进一步利用枝角类群落指标(物种组成、生物量等)定量评价了湖泊生物群落的响应模式与驱动因子。结果表明,湖泊营养水平(如总氮浓度)和初级生产力(叶绿素a浓度等)在过去近两百年总体呈上升趋势。相关分析显示,大气氮沉降和流域外源输入是影响总氮上升的主要因素,同时区域增温和营养盐富集促进了湖泊初级生产力的不断上升。自1960s以来区域升温明显,湖泊营养水平和叶绿素a浓度呈现加速上升的趋势。钻孔中枝角类群落以浮游属种(Daphnia longispina等)为优势种,在1900AD以前D.longispina相对丰度较为稳定(40.83%±8.02%),之后出现下降趋势且在1948—1965年间明显下降,之后再次明显上升并成为主要优势种。排序分析显示,气温、叶绿素a和总...