Comparison of two drought indices in studying regional meteorological drought events in China

The composite-drought index (CI), improved weighted average of precipitation index (IWAP), and the objective identification technique for regional extreme events (OITREE) were employed to detect China's regional meteorological drought events (CRMDEs) during 1961–2010. Compared with existing references, CI and IWAP both showed strong ability in identifying CRMDEs. Generally, the results of CI and IWAP were consistent, especially for extreme and severe CRMDEs. During 1961–2010, although the frequencies of extreme and severe CRMDEs based on CI and IWAP both showed weak decreasing trends, the two mean-integrated indices both showed increasing but not significant trends. However, the results of IWAP were more reasonable than CI’s in two aspects. Firstly, the monthly frequency of extreme and severe CRMDEs based on IWAP showed a clear seasonal variation, which coincided with the seasonal variation of the East Asian monsoon over central–eastern China, whereas the frequency based on CI presented a much weaker seasonal variation. Secondly, the two sets of results were sometimes inconsistent with respect to the start and end times of a CRMDE, and CRMDEs based on CI generally showed two unreasonable phenomena: (1) under non-drought conditions, a severe drought stage could suddenly occur in a large area; and (2) during the following period, drought could alleviate gradually in cases of non-precipitation. Comparative analysis suggested that the IWAP drought index possesses obvious advantages in detecting and monitoring regional drought events.     

5种干旱指数在西藏高原地区的适用性评估

为了解不同干旱指标在西藏高原地区的适用性,本文通过利用Pa、MI、SPI、CI和FAO P-M干旱指数对西藏高原月尺度旱情等级进行评估,分析了各指标在描述旱情时的异同,并统计出各种指数的一致性及等级差异。结果表明:近20 a干旱过程中,MI、FAO P-M指数未监测出轻旱等级,而对于中旱、重旱等级,FAO P-M指数表现较好。从空间分布来看,FAO P-M指数在各个地区表现较好。从时间分布来看,FAO P-M指数在不同干旱过程期间,描述的干旱强度和中心位置与实际情况更接近;其次是Pa指数,其他指数综合表现相对较差。5种干旱指数在衡量西藏地区干旱程度上的一致性并不好;从两两指数之间反映干旱程度上出现一致性频次上看出,Pa-FAO P-M指数出现的次数最多,其次是Pa-SPI-CI指数的出现次数,MI-CI指数的出现次数最少。通过差异性分析得出,全区干旱指数不一致率平均大于20%,阿里地区和林芝地区的干旱指数整体不一致率最高,拉萨地区的干旱指数整体不一致率最低。     

Evaluating the effect of ocean-atmospheric indices on drought in Iran

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - This study investigated the relationship between ocean-atmospheric indices and drought in Iran. Using > 30-year precipitation data from 37...     

Application of relative drought indices in assessing climate-change impacts on drought conditions in Czechia

The common versions (referred to as self-calibrated here) of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) are calibrated and then applied to the same weather series. Therefore, the distribution of the index values is about the same for any weather series. We introduce here the relative SPI and PDSI, abbreviated as rSPI and rPDSI. These are calibrated using a reference weather series as a first step, which is then applied to the tested series. The reference series may result from either a different station to allow for the inter-station comparison or from a different period to allow for climate-change impact assessments. The PDSI and 1–24 month aggregations of the SPI are used here. In the first part, the relationships between the self-calibrated and relative indices are studied. The relative drought indices are then used to assess drought conditions for 45 Czech stations under present (1961–2000) and future (2060–2099) climates. In the present climate experiment, the drought indices are calibrated by using the reference station weather series. Of all drought indices, the PDSI exhibits the widest spectrum of drought conditions across Czechia, in part because it depends not only on precipitation (as does the SPI) but also on temperature. In our climate-change impact experiments, the future climate is represented by modifying the observed series according to scenarios based on five Global Climate Models (GCMs). Changes in the SPI-based drought risk closely follow the modeled changes in precipitation, which is predicted to decrease in summer and increase in both winter and spring. Changes in the PDSI indicate an increased drought risk at all stations under all climate-change scenarios, which relates to temperature increases predicted by all of the GCMs throughout the whole year. As drought depends on both precipitation and temperature, we conclude that the PDSI is more appropriate (when compared to the SPI) for use in assessing the potential impact of climate change on future droughts.     

On the crosscorrelation between drought indices and solar activity

Summary Crosscorrelation structure between solar activity and drought indices is investigated by analyzing the cross correlation of the residual time series of solar activity and drought indices. Double Sunspot Cycle, Zürich Sunspot number, Palmer's Drought Index and Drought Area Index data are used in the study. White residual series derived from the observed data series by using valid time series models are used for the crosscorrelation analysis. Weak correlations between solar activity and drought area indices are inferred. The lags of significant correlation appear to vary for the different time series used in the study.With 3 Figures     

Assessing the utility of meteorological drought indices in monitoring summer drought based on soil moisture in Chongqing,China

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Numerous drought indices have been developed to analyze and monitor drought condition, but they are region specific and limited by various climatic conditions....     

Spatiotemporal variability of four precipitation-based drought indices in Xinjiang,China

Global increases in duration and prevalence of droughts require detailed drought characterization at various spatial and temporal scales. In this study, drought severity in Xinjiang, China was investigated between 1961 and 2012. Using meteorological data from 55 weather stations, the UNEP (1993) index (I _A), Erinç’s aridity index (I _m), and Sahin’s aridity index (I _sh) were calculated at the monthly and annual timescales and compared to the Penman-Monteith based standard precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI_PM). Drought spatiotemporal variability was analyzed for north (NX), south (SX), and entire Xinjiang (EX). I _m could not be calculated at 51 stations in winter as T _max was below 0. At the monthly timescale, I _A, I _m, and I _sh correlated poorly to SPEI_PM because of seasonality and temporal variability, but annual I _A, I _m, and I _sh correlated well with SPEI_PM. Annual I _A, I _m, and I _sh showed strong spatial variability. The 15 extreme droughts denoted by monthly SPEI_PM occurred in NX but out of phase in SX. Annual precipitation, maximum temperature, and relative and specific humidity increased, while air pressure and potential evapotranspiration decreased over 1961–2012. The resulting increases in the four drought indices indicated that drought severity in Xinjiang decreased, because the local climate became warmer and wetter.

     

四种气象干旱指数在新疆区域适用性研究

利用降水量距平百分率(PA)、标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)、自适应帕默尔干旱指数(scPDSI)和气象干旱综合指数(MCI)四种气象干旱指数,进行变化趋势、相关性和干旱频率的分析,并与历史灾情进行对比,来研究1961—2020年新疆不同区域干旱指数适用性。结果表明,scPDSI和MCI指数显著上升,干旱程度呈减轻趋势,其干旱监测结果一致率高。PA指数变化趋势均平稳,但与其他三种干旱指数在全频域和高频域干旱监测结果一致率较好。SPEI指数在东疆和南疆东部区域显著下降,干旱程度呈加重趋势,与其它三种指数低频域干旱监测结果存在显著负相关。干旱频率分析结果显示,PA指数的特旱等级判定存在异常情况,特别是南疆和东疆。与历史灾情对比结果显示,MCI指数是对干旱灾害反映最好的。总体上,MCI指数在新疆地区的适用性要优于其它三种干旱指数。近60年来,全疆不同区域的MCI指数均呈上升趋势,各区域的干旱程度均有所减轻。空间上,新疆西北部发生干旱显著比南疆和东疆区域概率大。全疆不同区域在1962—1967年、1974—1977年、1989—1991年、1997年、2020年均发生干旱,并且主要集中在春夏两季较多,其中北疆西部和伊犁河谷区域易出现干旱灾情。     

宝鸡地区农田土壤水分周年变化特征及冬小麦干旱指标

从北到南分别选取陇县、凤翔、渭滨、太白4县（区）气象站1986--2005年的土壤水分资料分析,得出宝鸡市年平均土壤湿度为17．1％,年变化幅度较大,最小值为13．3％,最大值为21．7％。土壤水分周年变化划分为冬春内部调整期、春季初夏失墒期、雨季恢复补充期、秋季缓慢失墒期4个阶段。土壤水分的垂直变化主要在0～50cm,愈往下层,变化愈小。确定了3个干旱区域和冬小麦干旱土壤水分指标。     

Agricultural drought survey using MODIS-based image indices at the regional scale: case study of the Urmia Lake Basin,Iran

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Drought is a natural, global and recurring phenomenon caused by climatic anomalies and inevitable meteorological changes. Lake Urmia in northwestern Iran has...     

Assessment of future olive crop yield by a comparative evaluation of drought indices: a case study in western Turkey

A comparative performance analysis was studied on well-known drought indices (Standardized Precipitation Index, Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and its moisture anomaly index (Orig-Z), and self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (SC-PDSI) and its moisture anomaly index (SC-Z)) to determine the most appropriate index for assessing olive (O. europaea L.) yield for oil in seven crop regions (Mu?la, Ayd?n, ?zmir, Manisa, Bal?kesir, ?anakkale, and Bursa) in western Turkey and to evaluate the vulnerability of olive yield for oil to climate change with future projections provided by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research ENSEMBLES project (HadCM3Q0). A series of curvilinear regression-based crop yield models were developed for each of the olive-growing regions based on the drought indices. The crop yield model that performed the best was the SC-PDSI model in Mu?la, Ayd?n, ?zmir, and Manisa regions and the PDSI model in ?anakkale, Bal?kesir, and Bursa regions. The SC-PDSI index-based model described 65%, 62%, 61%, and 62% of the measured variability of olive yield in Mu?la, Ayd?n, ?zmir, and Manisa regions, respectively. The PDSI index-based model explained 59%, 58%, and 64% of the measured variability of olive yield in Bal?kesir, ?anakkale, and Bursa regions, respectively. The vulnerability of the olive yield for oil to HadCM3Q0 future climate projections was evaluated for Ayd?n and ?anakkale regions due to the resolution of the regional climate model. In terms of the future scenarios, the expected decrease in olive yield residuals was 2.5?ton (10³ trees)^?1 and 1.78?ton (10³ trees)^?1 in Ayd?n and ?anakkale regions, respectively.     

太阳准周期变化对北半球夏季平流层加热率的影响

采用1979—2013年6—8月欧洲中期数值预报中心ERA-Interim逐月再分析资料和2004—2010年6—8月美国国家大气和海洋管理局太阳光谱辐照度资料,利用北京气候中心大气辐射模式,计算了北半球平流层夏季臭氧加热率(Ozone Heating Rate,OHR)和净加热率(Net Heating Rate,NHR),分析了太阳准11 a变化中太阳活动强年与弱年纬向平均OHR(NHR)的差异,并讨论了差异形成的原因。结果表明:太阳活动强年比弱年的紫外辐射明显要强,导致OHR、NHR整层增强,且随高度增加而增加;臭氧浓度在平流层下层较小,在平流层上层较大,该变化导致OHR、NHR有类似的变化型,且稍向高处偏移;OHR、NHR在平流层上层的变化,由紫外辐射和臭氧共同作用,其他地区均为臭氧起主要作用。     

Incorporation of internal fluctuations in a meandering plume model of concentration fluctuations

A meandering plume model that explicitly incorporates the effects of small-scale structure in the instantaneous plume has been formulated. The model requires the specification of two physically based input parameters; namely, the meander ratio,M, which is dependent on the ratio of the meandering plume dispersion to the instantaneous relative plume dispersion and, a relative in-plume fluctuation measure,k, that is related inversely to the fluctuation intensity in relative coordinates. Simple analytical expressions for crosswind profiles of the higher moments (including the important shape parameters such as fluctuation intensity, skewness, and kurtosis) and for the concentration pdf have been derived from the model. The model has been tested against some field data sets, indicating that it can reproduce many key aspects of the observed behavior of concentration fluctuations, particularly with respect to modeling the change in shape of the concentration pdf in the crosswind direction.List of Symbols C Mean concentration in absolute coordinates - C _r Mean concentration in relative coordinates - C₀ Centerline mean concentration in absolute coordinates - C _r,0 Centerline mean concentration in relative coordinates - f Probability density function of concentration in absolute coordinates - f _c Probability density function of plume centroid position - f _r Probability density function of concentration in relative coordinates - i Absolute concentration fluctuation intensity (standard deviation to mean ratio) - i _r Relative concentration fluctuation intensity (standard deviation to mean ratio) - k Relative in-plume fluctuation measure:k=1/i _r ² - K Concentration fluctuation kurtosis - M Meander ratio of meandering plume variance to relative plume variance - S Concentration fluctuation skewness - x Downwind distance from source - y Crosswind distance from mean-plume centerline - z Vertical distance above ground - Instantaneous (random) concentration - Crosswind dispersion ofnth concentration moment about zero - _ny Mean-plume crosswind (absolute) dispersion - _y Plume centroid (meandering) dispersion in crosswind direction - _y,c Instantaneous plume crosswind (relative) dispersion - Normalized mean concentration in absolute coordinates:C/C ₀ - Particular value taken on by instantaneous concentration,      

Microscale temperature fluctuations in the atmospheric surface layer

Microscale temperature fluctuations were measured at 2 m above a grassy surface. The temperature-derivative spectrum was in general agreement with earlier results but the bump at nondimensional wavenumbers higher than 0.02 was not as pronounced as has been observed. The Obukhov-Corrsin constant for the one-dimensional temperature spectrum was evaluated to be 0.92 ± 0.05, consistent with recent results. The effects of instability and the vertical variation of temperature variance and kinetic energy dissipation are postulated to explain some of the difference with other spectra.     

基于大气-土壤-植被系统干旱发生发展过程的综合干旱指标构建与应用

适宜的干旱指标和高分辨率数据是准确监测干旱的基础.本研究从气象干旱和土壤干旱以及植被对干旱的响应出发,整合中国国家气象观测站、中国气象局陆面数据同化系统(CLDAS)土壤湿度(0.0625°×0.0625°)和MODIS叶面积指数(500?m×500?m)等多源数据信息,构建了基于气象干旱指数(标准化降水蒸散指数)、土...