Electron microprobe data for tephra attributed to Glacier Peak,Washington

Reference samples of three prominent pumice units of Glacier Peak tephra collected east of the volcano within a distance of 100 km are similar petrographically to units described by earlier workers. Glass shards isolated from these samples were analyzed by electron microprobe to determine the content of Ca, Fe, and K. Resulting data, plus those published for two other references samples, provide a basis for attributing certain outlying tephra layers from 14 locations in eastern Washington, Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana to eruptions of Glacier Peak. Ten of the samples have properties of both Glacier Peak tephra and Mount St. Helens set J tephra, but proportions of Ca:Fe:K in glass shards indicate that 9 of the 10 outlying samples came from Glacier Peak, whereas one is assigned to Mount St. Helens set J. The remaining six outlying samples, all from southeastern Washington, contain cummingtonite phenocrysts and are chemically similar to some parts of Mount St. Helens tephra sets that are older than 12,000 BP.     

长白山火山灾害及其对大型工程建设的影响

长白山火山是世界著名的活火山,历史时期有过多次喷发,有再次爆发的危险.长白山火山最大的一次爆发发生在公元1199-1200年,这次大爆发的火山灰最远到达距其1 000km远的日本北部.依据这次大爆发由火山喷发空中降落堆积物、火山碎屑流和火山泥流造成的巨大火山灾害,预测了长白山火山未来爆发火山灾害的类型、强度和范围,并编制了长白山火山未来爆发火山喷发空中降落堆积物灾害预测图、火山碎屑流灾害预测图和火山泥流灾害预测图.该研究可预防和减轻火山灾害,指导核电站等大型工程选址.     

The Holocene volcanic history of Gran Canaria island: implications for volcanic hazards

Previous published data, combined with our results of 13 new radiocarbon ages and extensive geological fieldwork, indicate that during the past 11 ka 24 monogenetic basaltic eruptions occurred in the north sector of Gran Canaria. These eruptions can be grouped into three periods of eruptive activity: 1900–3200 ¹⁴C a BP; 5700–6000 ¹⁴C a BP; and an older period represented by only one eruption, El Draguillo, dated at 10 610 ± 190 ¹⁴C a BP. Archaeological studies have shown that the more recent eruptions affected prehistoric human settlements on the island. Field studies demonstrate that the eruptions typically built strombolian cones (30–250 m in height) and associated relatively long lava flows (100–10 350 m in length); a few eruptions also produced tephra fall deposits. The total erupted volume of these eruptions is about 0.388 km³ (46.1% as tephra fall, 41.8% as cinder cone deposits and 12.1% as lava flows). The relatively low eruption rate (～0.04 km³ ka^?1) during the past 11 ka is consistent with Gran Canaria's stage of evolution in the regional volcano‐tectonic setting of the Canary Archipelago. The results of our study were used to construct a volcanic hazards map that clearly delimits two sectors in the NE sector of Gran Canaria, where potential future eruptions would pose a substantial risk for densely populated areas. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Merapi (Java,Indonesia): anatomy of a killer volcano

Merapi is Indonesia's most dangerous volcano with a history of deadly eruptions. Over the past two centuries, the volcanic activity has been dominated by prolonged periods of lava dome growth and intermittent gravitational or explosive dome failures to produce pyroclastic flows every few years. Explosive eruptions, such as in 2010, have occurred occasionally during this period, but were more common in pre‐historical time, during which a collapse of the western sector of the volcano occurred at least once. Variations in magma supply from depth, magma ascent rates and the degassing behaviour during ascent are thought to be important factors that control whether Merapi erupts effusively or explosively. A combination of sub‐surface processes operating at relatively shallow depth inside the volcano, including complex conduit processes and the release of carbon dioxide into the magmatic system through assimilation of carbonate crustal rocks, may result in unpredictable explosive behaviour during periods of dome growth. Pyroclastic flows generated by gravitational or explosive lava dome collapses and subsequent lahars remain the most likely immediate hazards near the volcano, although the possibility of more violent eruptions that affect areas farther away from the volcano cannot be fully discounted. In order to improve hazard assessment during future volcanic crises at Merapi, we consider it crucial to improve our understanding of the processes operating in the volcano's plumbing system and their surface manifestations, to generate accurate hazard zonation maps that make use of numerical mass flow models on a realistic digital terrain model, and to utilize probabilistic information on eruption recurrence and inundation areas.     

Tephrochronology of the Siple Dome ice core,West Antarctica: correlations and sources

A total of 24 tephra-bearing volcanic layers have been recognized between 550 and 987 m depth in the Siple Dome A (SDM-A) ice core, in addition to a number already recognized tephra in the upper 550 m (Dunbar et al., 2003, Kurbatov et al., 2006). The uniform composition and distinctive morphological of the particles composing these tephra layers suggest deposition as a result of explosive volcanic eruptions and that the layers therefore represent time-stratigraphic markers in the ice core. Despite the very fine grain size of these tephra (mostly less than 20 microns), robust geochemical compositions were determined by electron microprobe analysis. The source volcanoes for these tephra layers are largely found within the Antarctic plate. Statistical geochemical correlations tie nine of the tephra layers to known eruptions from Mt. Berlin, a West Antarctic volcano that has been very active for the past 100,000 years. Previous correlations were made to an eruption of Mt. Takahe, another West Antarctic volcano, and one to Mt. Hudson, located in South America (Kurbatov et al., 2006). The lowest tephra layer in the ice core, located at 986.21 m depth, is correlated to a source eruption with an age of 118.1 ± 1.3 ka, suggesting a chronological pinning point for the lower ice. An episode of anomalously high volcanic activity in the ice in the SDM-A core between 18 and 35 ka (Gow and Meese, 2007) appears to be related to eruptive activity of Mt. Berlin volcano. At least some of the tephra layers found in the SDM-A core appear to be the result of very explosive eruptions that spread ash across large parts of West Antarctica, off the West Antarctic coast, as well as also being recognized in East Antarctica (Basile et al., 2001, Narcisi et al., 2005, Narcisi et al., 2006). Some of these layers would be expected to should be found in other deep Antarctic ice cores, particularly ones drilled in West Antarctica, providing correlative markers between different cores. The analysis of the tephra layers in the Siple Dome core, along with other Antarctic cores, provides a timing framework for the relatively proximal Antarctic and South American volcanic eruptive events, allowing these to be distinguished from the tropical eruptions that may play a greater role in climate forcing.     

Tephrochronology of late Wisconsin deglaciation and Holocene glacier fluctuations near Glacier Peak, North Cascade Range, Washington

Tephra layers near Glacier Peak in the North Cascade Range provide limiting dates for four periods of alpine glacier advance. Field relations suggest that late Wisconsin alpine glaciers last advanced prior to the eruption of tephra layers from Glacier Peak about 11,250 yr B.P. Late Wisconsin deglaciation in the central North Cascades was complete prior to the Glacier Peak tephra eruptions. Glaciers again expanded in the early Holocene about 8400 – 8300 yr B.P. Soil formed in alpine meadows during an episode of mild climate in the middle Holocene prior to at least two intervals of glacier expansion: an older episode between 5100 and 3400 yr B.P., and a younger episode within the last 1000 yr.     

Potential Hazards of Eruptions around the Tianchi Caldera Lake, China

Since the eruption of the Tianchi volcano about 1000 years ago, there have been at least 3 to 5 eruptions of small to moderate size. In addition, hazardous avalanches, rock falls and debris flows have occurred during periods between eruptions. A future eruption of the Tianchi volcano is likely to involve explosive interaction between magma and the caldera lake. The volume of erupted magma is almost in a range of 0.1-0.5 km3. Tephra fallout may damage agriculture in a large area near the volcano. If only 1% of the lake water were ejected during an eruption and then precipitated over an area of 200 km2, the average rainfall would be 100 mm. Moreover, lahars are likely to occur as both tephra and water ejected from the caldera lake fall onto flanks of the volcano. Rocks avalanching into the caldera lake also would bring about grave hazards because seiches would be triggered and lake water with the volume equal to that of the landslide would spill out of the existing breach in the caldera and cause flooding     

全球主要火山灾害及其分布特征

本文研究了火山灾害各种致灾因子的物理过程和灾害特点,根据文献中记载的全球火山灾害,在进行火山灾害分区研究的基础上,研究了全球火山灾害分布特征.全球主要的火山灾害分布在8个主要区域.有记载的火山灾害在热带占73%,远高于火山喷发分布于热带区的比例.全球两个最强烈的火山灾害分布区都是围绕着位于板块结合部表现为复杂构造结的班达海和加勒比海,而且每一个灾害区都有3条分支.热带区第3个灾害区为中非区,地幔上隆是这里主要的动力学背景.本文还研究了1700年以来火山灾害时间分布特征,以及1993年以来各种火山灾害发生频次.     

Glacier Peak and mid-Lateglacial Katla cryptotephras in Scotland: potential new intercontinental and marine-terrestrial correlations

Using contiguous high resolution sampling methods, we report the detection of a Glacier Peak volcanic ash from North America in Lateglacial Interstadial lake sediments in western Scotland. It occurs in close proximity to the Icelandic Borrobol and Penifiler tephras, but is distinguishable by its rhyolitic major-element composition that is consistent with the earliest set G layer, one of a number of mid-Interstadial Glacier Peak eruptions dated between 13.71 and 13.41 cal ka bp. Another cryptotephra layer present in these same Interstadial sediments has a rhyolitic composition consistent with the Icelandic Katla source. However, it is in a stratigraphic position below the widespread mid-Lateglacial Stadial Vedde Ash from Katla, which is also present in these cores. The Katla layer is stratigraphically well defined, suggesting primary airfall, and is compositionally similar to a mid-Interstadial rhyolitic tephra reported from a North Atlantic marine sequence south of Iceland dated to ~13.6 ka. The detection of Glacier Peak G in the European tephrostratigraphy will permit direct high-precision correlation of mid-Interstadial palaeoenvironments between North American and European terrestrial sequences. Any correlation between the new Katla layer and similar marine layers remains provisional, though if verified would permit similar correlation between North Atlantic marine and European terrestrial records.     

Fingerprinting the Late Pleistocene tephras of Ciomadul volcano,eastern–central Europe

Late Pleistocene tephras derived by large explosive volcanic eruptions are widespread in the Mediterranean and surrounding areas. They are important isochronous markers in stratigraphic sections and therefore it is important to constrain their sources. We report here tephrochronology results using multiple criteria to characterize the volcanic products of the Late Pleistocene Ciomadul volcano in eastern–central Europe. This dacitic volcano had an explosive eruption stage between 57 and 30 ka. The specific petrological character (ash texture, occurrence of plagioclase and amphibole phenocrysts and their compositions), the high-K calc-alkaline major element composition and particularly the distinct trace element characteristics provide a strong fingerprint of the Ciomadul volcano. This can be used for correlating tephra and cryptotephra occurrences within this timeframe. Remarkably, during this period several volcanic eruptions produced tephras with similar glass major element composition. However, they differ from Ciomadul tephras by glass trace element abundances, ratios of strongly incompatible trace elements and their mineral cargo that serve as discrimination tools. We used (U-Th)/He zircon dates combined with U-Th in situ rim dates along with luminescence and radiocarbon dating to constrain the age of the explosive eruptions of Ciomadul that yielded distal tephra layers but lack of identified proximal deposits.     

From sink to volcanic source: Unravelling missing terrestrial eruption records by characterization and high‐resolution chronology of lacustrine volcanic density flow deposits,Lake Inawashiro‐ko,Fukushima, Japan

Eruption records in the terrestrial stratigraphy are often incomplete due to erosion after tephra deposition, limited exposure and lack of precise dating owing to discontinuity of strata. A lake system and sequence adjacent to active volcanoes can record various volcanic events such as explosive eruptions and subaqueous density flows being extensions of eruption triggered and secondary triggered lahars. A lacustrine environment can constrain precise ages of such events because of constant and continuous background sedimentation. A total of 71 subaqueous density flow deposits in a 28 m long core from Lake Inawashiro‐ko reveals missing terrestrial volcanic activity at Adatara and Bandai volcanoes during the past 50 kyr. Sedimentary facies, colour, grain size, petrography, clay mineralogy, micro X‐ray fluorescence analysis and chemistry of included glass shards characterize the flow event deposits and clarify their origin: (i) clay‐rich grey hyperpycnites, extended from subaerial cohesive lahars at Adatara volcano, with sulphide/sulphate minerals and high sulphur content which point to a source from hydrothermally altered material ejected by phreatic eruptions; and (ii) clay‐rich brown density flow deposits, induced by magmatic hydrothermal eruptions and associated edifice collapse at Bandai volcano, with the common presence of fresh juvenile glass shards and low‐grade hydrothermally altered minerals; whereas (iii) non‐volcanic turbidites are limited to the oldest large slope failure and the 2011 Tohoku‐oki earthquake events. The high‐resolution chronology of volcanic activity during the last 50 kyr expressed by lacustrine event deposits shows that phreatic eruption frequency at Adatara has roughly tripled and explosive eruptions at Bandai have increased by ca 50%. These results challenge hikers, ski‐fields and downstream communities to re‐evaluate the increased volcanic risks from more frequent eruptions and far‐reaching lahars, and demonstrate the utility of lahar and lacustrine volcanic density flow deposits to unravel missing terrestrial eruption records, otherwise the recurrence rate may be underestimated at many volcanoes.     

History of scoria-cone eruptions on the eastern shoulder of the Kenya–Tanzania Rift revealed in the 250-ka sediment record of Lake Chala near Mount Kilimanjaro

Reconstructions of the timing and frequency of past eruptions are important to assess the propensity for future volcanic activity, yet in volcanic areas such as the East African Rift only piecemeal eruption histories exist. Understanding the volcanic history of scoria-cone fields, where eruptions are often infrequent and deposits strongly weathered, is particularly challenging. Here we reconstruct a history of volcanism from scoria cones situated along the eastern shoulders of the Kenya–Tanzania Rift, using a sequence of tephra (volcanic ash) layers preserved in the ~250-ka sediment record of Lake Chala near Mount Kilimanjaro. Seven visible and two non-visible (crypto-) tephra layers in the Lake Chala sequence are attributed to activity from the Mt Kilimanjaro (northern Tanzania) and the Chyulu Hills (southern Kenya) volcanic fields, on the basis of their glass chemistry, textural characteristics and known eruption chronology. The Lake Chala record of eruptions from scoria cones in the Chyulu Hills volcanic field confirms geological and historical evidence of its recent activity, and provides first-order age estimates for seven previously unknown eruptions. Long and well-resolved sedimentary records such as that of Lake Chala have significant potential for resolving regional eruption chronologies spanning hundreds of thousands of years.     

Tephra Discovered in High Resolution Peat Sediment and Its Indication to Climatic Event

Floating tephra was deposited together with ice core,snow layer,abyssal sediment,lake sediments,and other geological records.It is of great significance to interpret the impact on the climate change of volcanic eruptions from these geological records.It is the first time that volcanic glass was discovered from the peat of Jinchuan(金川)Maar,Jilin(吉林)Province,China.And it is in situ sediments from a near-source explosive eruption according to particle size analysis and identification results.The tephra were neither from Tianchi(天池)volcano eruptions,Changbai(长白)Mountain,nor from Jinlongdingzi(金龙顶子)volcano about 1 600 aBP eruption,but maybe from an unknown eruption of Longgang(龙岗)volcano group according to their geochemistry and distribution.Geochemical characters of the tephra are similar to those of Jingiongdingzi,which are poor in s.Jica,deficient in alkali,Na20 content is more than K20 content,and are similar to distribution patterns of REE and incompatible elements,which helps to speculate that they originated from the same mantle magma with rare condemnation,and from basaltic explosive eruption of Longgang volcano group.The tephra,from peat with age proved that the eruption possibly happened in 15 BC-26 AD,is one of Longgang volcano group eruption that was not recorded and is earlier than that of Jinglongdingzi about 1 600 aBP eruption.And the sedimentary time of tephra is during the period of low temperature alteration.which may be the influence of eruption toward the local climate according to the correlativity of eruption to local temperature curve of peat cellulose oxygen isotope.     

Electron microprobe analysis of glass shards from tephra assigned to set W,Mount St. Helens,Washington

We have extended the fallout areas for each of two members of tephra-set W, erupted from Mount St. Helens about 1500 ad, by several hundred kilometers beyond the limits mapped in 1975. We traced one member (We) east into Idaho, and the other (Wn) northeast into British Columbia. After using stratigraphic and petrographic observations to assign more than 100 tephra samples to set W, we found 26 of these, selected for chemical analysis, to be closely similar in content of Ca, Fe, and K in glass shards. But improved homogeneity was evident when the 26 sampling localities for tephra W were segregated geographically, east vs. northeast of the volcano. When Ca:Fe:K proportions were plotted on a ternary diagram, there was no overlap of the plotting areas for these two groups of tephra W samples. Without such data, tephra layers We and Wn are currently separable only from stratigraphic and geographic information. Partial glass analysis is also an aid, along with stratigraphic position and petrographic characteristics, in distinguishing tephra W from associated tephra layers. These include tephra layers T and Yn from Mount St. Helens, as well as older tephra layers from Mount Mazama and Glacier Peak.     

Long-runout pyroclastic surge on a Cretaceous alluvial plain, Republic of Korea

Pyroclastic surge is a dilute and turbulent flow of volcanic gas and tephra that is commonly generated during explosive volcanic eruptions and can threaten lives along its flow paths. Assessing its travel distance and delineating future volcanic hazards have therefore been major concerns of volcanologists. Historical eruptions show that most pyroclastic surges travel a few tens of kilometres or less from their sources. Aeolian or aquagene processes have therefore been evoked for the emplacement of supposed surge deposits much beyond this distance. Here we show that a Cretaceous tuff bed in Korea was emplaced by an exceptionally powerful pyroclastic surge that flowed as far as the most powerful pyroclastic flows that formed the low-aspect-ratio ignimbrites (LARI). This has significant implications for interpreting ancient volcanic eruptions and delineating volcanic hazards by pyroclastic surges, and casts intriguing questions on the eruption dynamics and physics of long-runout pyroclastic surges and their distinction from LARI-forming pyroclastic flows.     

Glacier Peak tephra in the North Cascade Range,Washington: Stratigraphy,distribution, and relationship to late-glacial events

Pumiceous tephra, resulting from multiple eruptions of Glacier Peak volcano in late-glacial time, mantles much of the landscape in the eastern North Cascade Range and extends eastward beyond the Columbia River as a thinner discontinuous deposit. Within about 25 km of the source, the tephra is divisible into as many as nine layers, distinguishable in the field on the basis of color, grain size, thickness, and stratigraphic position. Three principal layers, designated G (oldest), M, and B, are separated from one another by thinner, finer layers. Layer G has been found as far east as Montana and southern Alberta, whereas layer B has been identified as far as western Wyoming. By contrast, layer M trends nearly south, paralleling the crest of the Cascade Range. Available ¹⁴C dates indicate that the tephra complex was probably deposited between about 12,750 and 11,250 years ago. Glacier Peak tephra overlies moraines and associated outwash east of the Cascade Crest that were deposited about 14,000 years ago. Unreworked tephra occurs within several kilometers of many valley heads implying that major valley glaciers had nearly disappeared by the time of the initial tephra fall. Distribution of tephra indicates that the southern margin of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet had retreated at least 80 km north of its terminal moraine on the Waterville Plateau by the time layer G was deposited. Late-glacial moraines of the Rat Creek advance lie within the fallout area of layer M but lack the tephra on their surface implying that they were built subsequent to the eruption of this unit. Moraines of the Hyak advance at Snoqualmie Pass, which are correlated with the Rat Creek moraines farther north, were constructed prior to 11,000 ¹⁴C years ago. The late-glacial advance along the Cascade Crest, therefore, apparently culminated between about 12,000 and 11,000 ¹⁴C years ago and was broadly in phase with the Sumas readvance of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet in the Fraser Lowland which occurred between about 11,800 and 11,400 ¹⁴C years ago.     

The youngest volcanic eruptions in East‐Central Europe—new findings from the Ciomadul lava dome complex,East Carpathians,Romania

Violent explosive eruptions occurred between c. 51 and 29 thousand years ago—during the Last Glacial Maximum in East‐Central Europe—at the picturesque volcano of Ciomadul, located at the southernmost tip of the Inner Carpathian Volcanic Range in Romania. Field volcanology, glass geochemistry of tephra, radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescene dating, along with coring the lacustrine infill of the two explosive craters of Ciomadul (St Ana and Mohos), constrain the last volcanic activity to three subsequent eruptive stages. The explosivity was due to the silicic composition of the magma producing Plinian‐style eruptions, and the interaction of magma with the underlying, water‐rich rocks resulting in violent phreatomagmatic outbursts. Tephra (volcanic ash) from these eruptions are interbedded with contemporaneous loess deposits, which form thick sequences in the vicinity of the volcano. Moreover, tephra layers are also preserved in the older Mohos crater infill, providing an important archive for palaeoclimate studies. Identifying the final phreatomagmatic eruption of Ciomadul at c. 29.6 ka, which shaped the present‐day landform of the 1600‐m‐wide St Ana explosion crater, we were able to correlate related tephra deposits as far as 350 km from the source within a thick loess‐palaeosol sequence at the Dniester Delta in Roxolany, Ukraine. A refined tephrostratigraphy, based on a number of newly found exposures in the Ciomadul surrounding region as well as correlation with the distal terrestrial and marine (e.g. Black Sea) volcano‐sedimentary record, is expected from ongoing studies.     

Volcanic ash clouds affecting Northern Europe: the long view

The volcanic ash or ‘tephra’ cloud resulting from the relatively small (volume and VEI) eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull in 2010 caused major air travel disruption, at substantial global economic cost. On several occasions in the past few centuries, Icelandic eruptions have created ash and/or sulphur dioxide clouds which were detected over Europe (e.g. Hekla in 1947, Askja in 1875, and Laki in 1783). However, these historical observations do not represent a complete record of events serious enough to disrupt aviation in Europe. The only feasible evidence for this is within the geological tephra record. Ash layers are preserved in bogs and lakes where tephra deposited from the atmosphere is incorporated in the peat/mud. In this article we: 1, introduce the analysis of the Northern European sedimentary tephra record; 2, discuss our findings and modelling results; 3, highlight how these were misinterpreted by the popular media; and 4, use this experience to outline several existing problems with current tephra studies and suggest agendas for future research.     

Geochemical characterization of marker tephra layers from major Holocene eruptions,Kamchatka Peninsula,Russia

Kamchatka Peninsula is one of the most active volcanic regions in the world. Many Holocene explosive eruptions have resulted in widespread dispersal of tephra-fall deposits. The largest layers have been mapped and dated by the ¹⁴C method. The tephra provide valuable stratigraphic markers that constrain the age of many geological events (e.g. volcanic eruptions, palaeotsunamis, faulting, and so on). This is the first systematic attempt to use electron microprobe (EMP) analyses of glass to characterize individual tephra deposits in Kamchatka. Eighty-nine glass samples erupted from 11 volcanoes, representing 27 well-identified Holocene key-marker tephra layers, were analysed. The glass is rhyolitic in 21 tephra, dacitic in two, and multimodal in three. Two tephra are mixed with glass compositions ranging from andesite/dacite to rhyolite. Tephra from the 11 eruptive centres are distinguished by their glass K₂O, CaO, and FeO contents. In some cases, individual tephra from volcanoes with multiple eruptions cannot be differentiated. Trace element compositions of 64 representative bulk tephra samples erupted from 10 volcanoes were analysed by instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA) as a pilot study to further refine the geochemical characteristics; tephra from these volcanoes can be characterized using Cr and Th contents and La/Yb ratios.

Unidentified tephra collected at the islands of Karaginsky (3), Bering (11), and Attu (5) as well as Uka Bay (1) were correlated to known eruptions. Glass compositions and trace element data from bulk tephra samples show that the Karaginsky Island and Uka Bay tephra were all erupted from the Shiveluch volcano. The 11 Bering Island tephra are correlated to Kamchatka eruptions. Five tephra from Attu Island in the Aleutians are tentatively correlated with eruptions from the Avachinsky and Shiveluch volcanoes.     

Estimation of volcanic hazards based on Cox stochastic processes

Assessments of the probability and the consequences of future volcanic activity can be critical aspects when evaluating the safety of the population and of industrial plants. A new methodology has been developed for the probabilistic modelling of volcanic hazards based on regional volcanic data that facilitates the production of probabilistic hazard maps for various volcanic scenarios (lava flows, tephra). The stochastic model is based on Cox processes and allows account to be taken of the observed temporal and spatial correlation inherent in volcanic eruptions. The model is applied to the Quaternary field of the Osteifel region where the forecast number of future eruptions and the probabilities related to the different scenarios are estimated using a Monte Carlo approach. The obtained hazard maps of future volcanic events are part of a comprehensive hazard analysis and serve as a major input for the risk analysis that will determine the consequences of forecast volcanic activity at the site.