Would you like to know more? The effect of personalized wildfire risk information and social comparisons on information-seeking behavior in the wildland–urban interface

Natural Hazards - Private landowners are important actors in landscape-level wildfire risk management. Accordingly, wildfire programs and policy encourage wildland–urban interface homeowners...     

Variability of the blazar 3C 454.3 during 2007–2010

Results are presented of multicolor observations of the blazar 3C 454.3 carried out at the Astronomical Institute of St. Petersburg State University and the Central Astronomical Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences in 2007–2010. The color variability of the blazar is analyzed. Several outbursts were observed. The existence of two variable synchrotron sources is inferred. The first is responsible for the small-amplitude flux variability, and the second for flares. In each flare, the relative spectral energy distribution (SED) of the variable source is found to be constant. All the SEDs are power laws, but with different spectral indexes in different flares. This indicates the impossibility of explaining the global variability only via a difference in Doppler boosting due to variations of the angle between the line of sight and the velocity of the electrons responsible for the synchrotron radiation. The polarimetric and photometric observations are used to derive the absolute SED of constant component. A comparison of the observed SEDs for different brightness levels with the SED of the constant componentmakes it possible to explain the observed color variability as due to the superposition of a bluer variable source with a constant SED and variable flux onto the constant component.     

Impact of wildfire in Russia between 1998–2010 on ecosystems and the global carbon budget

Verified estimates of wildfire area and related carbon emissions in territories of Russia are reported for the period of 1998–2010. It is shown that the average burnt area is estimated to be at 8.23 million hectares per year (uncertainty ±9.0%, confidence interval 0.9), and carbon emissions—121 Tg C yr⁻¹ (±23%), with a significant interannual variability of these indicators. A quantitative characteristic of fire emissions by species is reported. Forests are a source of three quarters of all carbon emissions caused by wildfires. A significant acceleration of fire regimes is expected during the 21st century as a result of climate change in the country.     

Physicochemical studies of magma and of related phenomena conducted in U.S.S.R. in 1957–1959

A review of 174 Soviet publications on physicochemical studies in magmatism, post-magmatic phenomena, origins of rocks, minerals ores, and related subjects, with particular attention to the impact of the derivations of Korzhinskiy of the Phase Rule upon modern physical chemistry in petrology. — V.P. Sokoloff     

Geographies of identity theft in the U.S.: understanding spatial and demographic patterns, 2002–2006

Identity theft is among the fastest growing white-collar crimes in the United States, although official recognition of it as a criminal act is a relatively recent development. Utilizing theoretical framework established in crime geography, GIS mapping and spatial statistics are employed to conduct a spatial analysis of identity theft in the U.S. from 2002 to 2006. Distinct regional variations, such as high rates in the western and southwestern states, and low rates in New England and the central plains states, are identified for identity theft. Significant spatial patterns of identity theft victims alongside social demographic variables are also revealed in order to better understand the regional patterns that may suggest underlying social causes contributing to identity theft. Potential social variables, such as race/ethnicity and urban–rural populations, are shown to have similar patterns that may be directly associated with U.S. identity theft victims.     

Trend analysis of rainfall pattern over the Central India during 1901–2010

In the present study, trends of rainfall of the Central India were evaluated in monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales using the Revised Mann-Kendall (RMK) test, Sen’s slope estimator, and innovative trend method (ITM). For this purpose, the monthly rainfall data for 20 stations in Madhya Pradesh (MP) and Chhattisgarh (CG) states in Central India during 1901–2010 was used. The Sen’s slope estimator was utilized for calculating the slope of rainfall trend line. Based on the obtained results of RMK test, there is no significant trend in the stations for the January and October months. The results also showed that for MP, two out of 15 considered stations indicate significant annual trend, while the CG has four out of five stations with significant trend. The results of applying ITM test indicated that most of the stations have decreasing trends in annual (16 stations), summer (16 stations), and monsoon (11 stations) seasons, while the winter (12 stations) and post monsoon (11 stations) seasons generally show increasing trend. Unlike the RMK, the ITM shows significant increasing trend in rainfall of November and December months. The finding of current study can be used for irrigation and water resource management purpose over the Central India.     

Seismogenesis of the uninterrupted occurrence of the aftershock activity in the 2001 Bhuj earthquake zone, Gujarat, India, during 2001�C2010

Seismogenesis of aftershocks occurring in the Kachchh seismic zone for more than last 10?years is investigated through modeling of fractal dimensions, b-value, seismic velocities, stress inversion, and Coulomb failure stresses, using aftershock data of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake. Three-dimensional mapping of b-values, fractal dimensions, and seismic velocities clearly delineate an area of high b-, D-, and Vp/Vs ratio values at 15?C35?km depth below the main rupture zone (MRZ) of the 2001 mainshock, which is attributed to higher material heterogeneities in the vicinity of the MRZ or deep fluid enrichment due to the release of aqueous fluid/volatile CO₂ from the eclogitisation of the olivine-rich lower crustal rocks. We notice that several aftershocks are occurred near the contacts between high (mafic brittle rocks) and low velocity regions while many of the aftershocks including the 2001 Bhuj mainshock are occurred in the zones of low velocity (low dVp, low dVs and large Vp/Vs) in the 15?C35?km depth range, which are inferred to be the fractured rock matrixes filled with aqueous fluid or volatiles containing CO₂. Further support for this model comes from the presence of hydrous eclogitic layer at sub-lithospheric depths (34?C42?km). The depth-wise stress inversions using the P- and T-axes data of the focal mechanisms reveal an increase in heterogeneity (i.e., misfit) with an almost N?CS ??₁ orientation up to 30?km depth. Then, the misfit decreases to a minimum value in the 30?C40?km depth range, where a 60^o rotation in the ??₁ orientation is also noticed that can be explained in terms of the fluid enrichment in that particular layer. The modeling of Coulomb failure stress changes (??CFS) considering three tectonic faults [i.e., NWF, GF, and Allah bund fault (ABF)] and the slip distribution of the 2001 mainshock on NWF could successfully explain the occurrences of moderate size events (during 2006?C2008) in terms of increase in positive ??CFS on GF and ABF. In a nutshell, we propose that the fluid-filled mafic intrusives are acting as stress accentuators below the Kachchh seismic zone, which generate crustal earthquakes while the uninterrupted occurrence of aftershocks is triggered by stress transfer and aqueous fluid or volatile CO₂ flow mechanisms. Further, our results on the 3-D crustal seismic velocity structure, focal mechanisms, and b-value mapping will form key inputs for understanding wave propagation and earthquake hazard-related risk associated with the Kachchh basin.     

Spatial–temporal patterns of cloud-to-ground lightning over the northwest Iberian Peninsula during the period 2010–2015

The spatial–temporal patterns of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning covering the period 2010–2015 over the northwest Iberian Peninsula were investigated. The analysis conducted employed three main methods: the circulation weather types developed by Jenkinson and Collison, the fit of a generalized additive model (GAM) for geographic variables, and the use of a concentration index for the ratio of lightning strikes and thunderstorm days. The main activity in the summer months can be attributed to situations with eastern or anticyclonic flow due to convection by insolation. In winter, lightning proves to have a frontal origin and is mainly associated with western or cyclonic flow situations which occur with advections of air masses of maritime origin. The largest number of CG discharges occurs under eastern flow and their hybrids with anticyclonic situations. Thunderstorms with greater CG lightning activity, highlighted by a higher concentration index, are located in areas with a higher density of lightning strikes, above all in mountainous areas away from the sea. The modeling of lightning density with geographic variables shows the positive influence of altitude and, particularly, distance to the sea, with nonlinear relationships due to the complex orography of the region. Likewise, areas with convex topography receive more lightning strikes than concave ones, a relation which has been demonstrated for the first time from a GAM.     

Laboratory investigation of erosion behavior at the soil–structure interface affected by various structural factors

Natural Hazards - Being regarded as an elementary contact unit in the foundation and embankment of levees, trenches and other engineering constructions, the soil–structure interface is highly...     

Temporal and spatial changes in coastline movement of the Yangtze delta during 1974–2010

The evolution of the Yangtze delta, where the largest economic zone (e.g. Shanghai) in China is located, directly affects the regional economic development and ecoenvironment. The mean high tide lines as the coastline delineated from multi-temporal remote sensing data of Landsat during 1974–2010 at intervals of about 8 years were used to examine the shoreline progradation and recession of the Yangtze delta in the past four decades. Our results show that significant parts of the shoreline in the Yangtze delta in the past four decades and particularly after the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), the world’s largest hydropower project ever built, experienced continual progradation despite a substantial decrease in the Yangtze sediment input. During 1974–2010, the area of the Yangtze subaerial delta increased by 667 km² with a net progradation rate of 18.5 km²/yr, and the maximum progradation occurred at the eastern parts of Chongming Island and Nanhui bank, where the coastline advanced seaward about 8 and 6 km, respectively, with mean net progradation rates of 0.22 and 0.17 km/yr, respectively. An important (probably dominant) reason for the Yangtze shoreline progradation despite markedly decreased riverine sediment supply is coastal engineering, such as sea reclamation works, filling project, and wharf constructions.     

The Global Boundary Stratotype Section and Point for the base of the Turonian Stage of the Cretaceous： Pueblo, Colorado, U.S.A.

Following the recommendation of the International Commission on Stratigraphy (16 votes Yes [94%], 1 abstention, 2 votes not received), the Global boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) for the base of the Turonian Stage of the Cretaceous System is defined as the base of bed 86 of the Bridge Creek Limestone Member of the Greenhorn Limestone Formation at the western end of the Denver and Rio Grande Railroad cut near the north boundary of the Pueblo Reservoir State Park Recreation Area, west of Pueblo, Colorado, USA. This GSSP horizon is also exposed and protected in the adjacent state recreation area. It coincides with the first occurrence of the ammonite Watinoceras devonense, is in the middle of a global positive excursion in Carbon-13 isotopes, and is bracketed by widespread bentonites that have yield edages of 93 to 93.5 Ma.     

U–Pb zircon geochronology of Silurian–Devonian granites in southeastern Australia: implications for the timing of the Benambran Orogeny and the I–S dichotomy

Despite extensive geochemical study and their importance to granite studies, the geochronology of Silurian to early-Devonian granitic rocks of southeastern Australia is poorly understood. In order to provide an improved temporal framework, new ion microprobe U–Pb zircon ages are presented from these rocks, and previous work is critically reviewed. Geochronological control is best in the Berridale Batholith, where S- and I-type granites have a close spatial relationship. In this region, there is a small volume of I-type granite that crystallised at 436 Ma, followed closely by a large volume of S-type granite at 432 Ma. I-type granite is abundant in a second peak at ca 417 Ma, although the Jindabyne pluton from the Kosciuszko Batholith is slightly older, at 424 Ma. A broader survey of S-type granite throughout the eastern Lachlan Orogen shows that the 432 Ma event is ubiquitous. There is no temporal overlap between S- and I-type granites in the Kosciuszko and Berridale Batholiths, which suggests that factors other than variations in degree of crustal contamination (which may include variation in tectonic setting, heat-flow, mass transfer across the crust–mantle boundary and/or availability in source materials) contribute to the diversity in granite types. The S-type granitic rocks occupy an aerial extent of greater than 28 000 km², and geochronological constraints suggest that the crystallisation of these granites took place over a relatively small interval, probably less than 10 m.y. This implies a magmatic flux of over 64 km³/Ma per km strike length, comparable to other high-flux granitic belts. Previous work has linked the Benambran Orogeny to the generation of the S-type granites, and so the age of these granites constrains the age of Benambran Orogenesis     

Prediction of severe tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal during 2007–2010 using high-resolution mesoscale model

In this paper, the performance of a high-resolution mesoscale model for the prediction of severe tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal during 2007?C2010 (Sidr, Nargis, Aila, and Laila) is discussed. The advanced Weather Research Forecast (WRF) modeling system (ARW core) is used with a combination of Yonsei University PBL schemes, Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization, and Ferrier cloud microphysics schemes for the simulations. The initial and boundary conditions for the simulations are derived from global operational analysis and forecast products of the National Center for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) available at 1°lon/lat resolution. The simulation results of the extreme weather parameters such as heavy rainfall, strong wind and track of those four severe cyclones, are critically evaluated and discussed by comparing with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated values. The simulations of the cyclones reveal that the cyclone track, intensity, and time of landfall are reasonably well simulated by the model. The mean track error at the time of landfall of the cyclone is 98?km, in which the minimum error was found to be for the cyclone Nargis (22?km) and maximum error for the cyclone Laila (304?km). The landfall time of all the cyclones is also fairly simulated by the model. The distribution and intensity of rainfall are well simulated by the model as well and were comparable with the TRMM estimates.     

Formation of the disk structure and jets in the symbiotic system Z and during periods of activity in 2006–2010

We present an analysis of spectrophotometric observations of the latest cycle of activity of the symbiotic binary Z And from 2006 to 2010. We estimate the temperature of the hot component of Z And to be ≈150 000−170 000 K at minimum brightness, decreasing to ≈90 000 K at the brightness maximum. Our estimate of the electron density in the gaseous nebula is N _e = 10¹⁰−10¹² cm⁻³ in the region of formation of lines of neutral helium and N _e = 10⁶−10⁷ cm⁻³ in the region of formation of the [OIII] and [NeIII] nebular lines. A trend for the gas density derived from helium lines to increase and the gas density derived from [OIII] and [NeIII] lines to simultaneously decrease with increasing brightness of the system was observed. Our estimates show that the ratios of the theoretical and observed fluxes in the [OIII] and [NeIII] lines agree best when the O/Ne ratio is similar to its value for planetary nebulae. The model spectral energy distribution showed that, in addition to a cool component and gaseous nebula, a relatively cool pseudophotosphere (5250–11 500 K) is present in the system. The simultaneous presence of a relatively cool pseudophotosphere and high-ionization spectral lines is probably related to a disk-like structure of the pseudophotosphere. The pseudophotosphere formed very rapidly—over several weeks—during a period of increasing brightness of Z And. We infer that in 2009, as in 2006, the activity of the system was accompanied by a collimated bipolar ejection of matter (jets). In contrast to the situation in 2006, the jets were detected even before the system reached its maximum brightness. Moreover, components with velocities close to 1200 km/s disappeared at the maximum, while those with velocities close to 1800 km/s appeared.