Probabilities of earthquake occurrences in Mainland Southeast Asia

The frequency–magnitude distributions of earthquakes are used in this study to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters for individual earthquake source zones within the Mainland Southeast Asia. For this purpose, 13 earthquake source zones are newly defined based on the most recent geological, tectonic, and seismicity data. A homogeneous and complete seismicity database covering the period from 1964 to 2010 is prepared for this region and then used for the estimation of the constants, a and b, of the frequency–magnitude distributions. These constants are then applied to evaluate the most probable largest magnitude, the mean return period, and the probability of earthquake of different magnitudes in different time spans. The results clearly show that zones A, B, and E have the high probability for the earthquake occurrence comparing with the other seismic zones. All seismic source zones have 100 % probability that the earthquake with magnitude ≤6.0 generates in the next 25 years. For the Sagaing Fault Zone (zones C), the next Mw 7.2–7.5 earthquake may generate in this zone within the next two decades and should be aware of the prospective Mw 8.0 earthquake. Meanwhile, in Sumatra-Andaman Interplate (zone A), an earthquake with a magnitude of Mw 9.0 can possibly occur in every 50 years. Since an earthquake of magnitude Mw 9.0 was recorded in this region in 2004, there is a possibility of another Mw 9.0 earthquake within the next 50 years.     

鲁南新元古代一个地震活跃期的地震幕次组合序列

地震灾变事件的直接证据是地层中留下的特殊的沉积记录——震积岩。鲁南地区新元古界石旺庄组底部发育的一套碳酸盐岩泥晶脉、液化卷曲变形构造、丘状层理、砾屑层等典型的地震-海啸震积岩序列,表明本区新元古代曾有过一个持续很长时间的地震活跃期。依据其沉积组合规律,可以识别出7个地震幕,30余次地震。造成这一地震灾变事件的主要原因是古郯庐断裂带的早期裂陷作用。     

Seismicity and earthquake focal mechanisms in the Baikal rift zone

The seismicity of the Baikal rift zone is considered on the basis of instrumental and field observations. The spatial pattern of epicentres, the frequency of earthquakes and the relations between seismicity and the elements of fault tectonics are analyzed. The regional and local stress states in the crust of the Pribaikalye region, obtained from studying earthquake focal mechanisms for various energies are summarized.     

Estimation of Coulomb stress changes and induced earthquake occurrences prediction in the region of Three Gorges Reservoir,China

In the region of Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China, there has been occurrence of several frequent earthquakes of moderate intensity since reservoir impounding occurred in 2003. These earthquakes are generally believed to be induced by reservoir impoundment and water-level variations. Usually, the geo-stress will change, when natural earthquakes occur. Following this principle, this paper adopted the rate and state theory to simulate and estimate Coulomb stress changes in the TGR region and obtained the pattern of Coulomb stress changes with time and the event sequence as well as the distribution of Coulomb stress changes in space. First, the TGR regional catalogue was analyzed and processed, leading to quantification of the magnitude of completeness and all of the parameters that are used in the stress–seismicity inversion process, including the reference seismicity rates, characteristic relaxation time, fault constitutive parameters, and stress rates. Second, the temporal evolution of the stress changes in different time windows was computed and analyzed, and it was found that there is an association between the Coulomb stress changes and rates of increase in the cumulative number of earthquakes. In addition, the earthquake occurred in November 2008 (M _S = 4.1) was analyzed and attempted to simulate the distribution of stress changes in space through the stress–seismicity inversion model. The results proved that the modeled area coincides with the historical area of earthquakes that occurred after 2008. Finally, a prediction was made about the earthquake productivity rates after 2015, which showed a declining earthquake rate over time that ultimately returned to the background seismicity. This result is essentially in agreement with Omori’s law. To conclude, it is rational to use the stress-inversion method to analyze the relationship between induced earthquake seismicity and local stress changes as well as to simulate the area of earthquake occurrence and productivity rates of reservoir-induced earthquakes.     

Investigations of earthquake probabilities in the Indian Ocean seismic belts

Gumbel's extreme-value theory is used to estimate the probability of occurrence and average return periods for earthquakes in the Indian Ocean seismic belts. The nature of seismic activity, and annual and 50 year maximum magnitudes of earthquakes are also discussed. The earthquake occurrence model of autocorrelation lends support for the periodicity of the most probable earthquake in these belts. The percentage probability of recurrence of earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above has been estimated for the region mentioned.     

Active extension of the Shanxi rift,north China: does it result from anticlockwise block rotations?

The Shanxi rift is an intraplate extensional zone in the North China Block. Active extension has previously been considered to result from anticlockwise block rotation, with successive indentation of the Indian plate toward the Eurasian plate. However, GPS data show that the entire North China Block is moving coherently from WNW to ESE, indicating that no significant block rotations presently exist along the two sides of the rift. We use a viscoelastic model to predict that its active extension might be caused by intraplate deformation localization with lateral changes of the crustal rheological structures. A model result shows that for the ESE movement of the North China Block, the existing topographical loading and crustal weakness could have resulted in the obvious long‐term extension of the Shanxi rift even without different block rotations. The surface extension rate approximated from lateral inhomogeneous crustal models is ～ 0.5–1.4 mm yr^?1, consistent with observed geological and seismological extension rates.     

The Baikal system of rift valleys

The Baikal system of rift valleys has no evident structural connections with the World Rift System. The peculiar features of its structure, morphology and volcanicity reflect this isolation. The spatial position and major structural features of the system are determined where the central segment (the South Baikal depression) is confined to the junction of two major lithospheric plates, the Precambrian Siberian platform and the heterogenous folded framework of Sayan—Baikal. The contrasting structures and thermodynamic conditions of these two plates, and the deep nature of the suture zone developed between them, have been responsible for the location of crustal extension and proto-rift formation within the Baikal depression proper, first initiated not later than Eocene and then propagating to zones both west and northeastwards.     

Early Paleozoic collisional structures in the modern elevation pattern of the Olkhon region (Baikal rift system)

The Olkhon area in the western Baikal region belongs to the Baikal rift system. The terrain bears strong imprint of the Early Paleozoic structural framework produced by a multistage collision. The today's elevation pattern records the main features of inhomogeneous basement lithology. The topography of the area is generally governed by the tectonic style, and tectonic landforms remain weakly denuded and almost uneroded. Thus the Cenozoic geomorphic framework can be correlated to the Early Paleozoic basement structure.     

Using Bayesian networks in analyzing powerful earthquake disaster chains

Substantial economic losses, building damage, and loss of life have been caused by secondary disasters that result from strong earthquakes. Earthquake disaster chains occur when secondary disasters take place in sequence. In this paper, we summarize 23 common earthquake disaster chains, whose structures include the serial, parallel, and parallel–serial (dendroid disaster chain) types. Evaluating the probability of powerful earthquake disaster chains is urgently needed for effective disaster prediction and emergency management. To this end, we introduce Bayesian networks (BNs) to assess powerful earthquake disaster chains. The structural graph of a powerful earthquake disaster chain is presented, and the proposed BN modeling method is provided and discussed. BN model of the earthquake–landslides–barrier lakes–floods disaster chain is established. The use of BN shows that such a model enables the effective analysis of earthquake disaster chains. Probability inference reveals that population density, loose debris volume, flooded areas, and landslide dam stability are the most critical links that lead to loss of life in earthquake disaster chains.     

Interaction of an antecedent fluvial system with early normal fault growth: Implications for syn‐rift stratigraphy,western Corinth rift (Greece)

Continental ‘overfilled’ conditions during rift initiation are conventionally explained as due to low creation of accommodation compared with sediment supply. Alternatively, sediment supply can be relatively high from the onset of rifting due to an antecedent drainage system. The alluvial Lower Group of the western Plio–Pleistocene Corinth rift is used to investigate the interaction of fluvial sedimentation with early rifting. This rift was obliquely superimposed on the Hellenide mountain belt from which it inherited a significant palaeorelief. Detailed sedimentary logging and mapping of the well‐exposed syn‐rift succession document the facies distributions, palaeocurrents and stratigraphic architecture. Magnetostratigraphy and biostratigraphy are used to date and correlate the alluvial succession across and between fault blocks. From 3·2 to 1·8 Ma, a transverse low sinuosity braided river system flowed north/north‐east to east across east–west‐striking active fault blocks (4 to 7 km in width). Deposits evolved downstream from coarse alluvial conglomerates to fine‐grained lacustrine deposits over 15 to 30 km. The length scale of facies belts is much greater than, and thus not directly controlled by, the width of the fault blocks. At its termination, the distributive river system built small, stacked deltas into a shallow lake margin. The presence of a major antecedent drainage system is supported by: (i) a single major sediment entry point; (ii) persistence of a main channel belt axis; (iii) downstream fining at the scale of the rift basin. The zones of maximum subsidence on individual faults are aligned with the persistent fluvial axis, suggesting that sediment supply influenced normal fault growth. Instead of low accommodation rate during the early rift phase, this study proposes that facies progradation can be controlled by continuous and high sediment supply from antecedent rivers.     

攀西裂谷内陆盆地自由热对流应力分析及盆地沉降

康滇地区裂谷作用已得到证实,但形成这种地堑地垒的格局有多种解释,以传统的地质力学分析为主。笔者借以热力学的自由热对流原理来加以论述:攀西巨厚的火山岩体在下覆异常地幔热作用下,发生自由热对流,引起热量散失,使地壳沉降与隆起不均衡,生成地堑地垒的格局。自由对流单元的侧向迁移,使盆地形成非对称性。     

Spatial variations of fundamental seismotectonic parameters for the earthquake occurrences in the Eastern Mediterranean and Caucasus

Natural Hazards - In this study, a comprehensive statistical analysis was made for different parts of the world. For this purpose, fundamental seismotectonic earthquake parameters such as b-value,...     

中国北方裂谷型侏罗系含油气远景的再认识(代序)

中国北方裂谷型侏罗系在甘肃、内蒙古至东北区的广大地带皆未获油气突破,可视为该层系油气勘探的新区。改革开放前多轮勘探未获油气突破,与当时的技术水平低和认识的局限性有很大关系。近年,在柴达木盆地北缘、松辽盆地西南侧油气勘探的一系列新进展,坚定了在提高技术体系的同时重新评价其含油气性、进行新层系开拓的信心。作为侏罗纪古裂谷,该套地层纵横向发育有明显的共性,其煤系地层经历了复杂的后期改造,使其在残留地层的圈定、原型盆地的恢复、烃类演化运移及保存特点的认识上难度相当大。在此项工作中,应重视对煤系生烃和火山岩的研究,注意对区内不同目的层常规、非常规不同类型油气和沉积型铀矿的综合勘探。     

湘中地区中生代地温场及锑矿分布

汞、锑、砷矿床被称为远成低温矿床，与岩体无明显的时空关系。本文以湘中盆地为例，以煤变质程度和生油岩有机质成熟度研究中生代古地温场和古地温异常特征，并讨论锑矿空间分布关系，认为锑矿床（点）主要分布在高温的隆起区及其边缘。     

GPS-measurements of recent crustal deformation in the junction zone of the rift segments in the central Baikal rift system

Based on multiyear measurements of present-day motions in the central area of the Baikal rift system, new data on the kinematics of horizontal motions, relative horizontal deformation rates, and rotation velocities in the area of junction of the South Baikal, North Baikal, and Barguzin rift basins have been obtained. This area is an intricate structure with two transfer zones: Ol’khon–Svyatoi Nos and Ust’-Barguzin.It is shown that crustal blocks are moving southeastward, normally to the structures of transfer zones and at an acute angle to the Baikal Rift strike, which corresponds to the right-lateral strike-slip extensional faulting along the major structure. The average horizontal velocities increase from 3.0 mm yr–1 in the northern South Baikal basin to 6.5 mm yr–1 in the Barguzin basin. The elongation axes prevailing in the study region are mainly of NW–SE direction. The areas of intense deformations are confined to structures with high seismic activity in the South Baikal and, partly, Barguzin basins. This confirms the existence of a present-day zone of the Earth’s crust destruction in the Baikal rift system, which is the most likely source of strong earthquakes in the future. Two zones with rotations in opposite directions are recognized in the rotation velocity field. Clockwise rotation is typical of structures of N–NE strike (Maloe More basin, southern North Baikal basin, Barguzin Ridge rise). Counterclockwise rotation is determined for NE-striking structures (northern South Baikal basin, southern Barguzin basin). In general, the obtained data show an intricate pattern of present-day horizontal dislocations and deformations in the area of junction of NE- and N–NE-striking rift structures. This suggests left- and right-lateral strike-slip faults, respectively, within them.     

山西断陷带南部三维P波速度结构及地震分布特征

本研究使用山西测震台网记录的2010年1月～2019年12月地震观测数据,使用TomoDD方法,反演得到了山西断陷带南部（110°～114°E,34.5°～38.5°N）分辨率为0.2°的三维P波速度结构以及该区域地震重定位结果。反演结果显示：研究区的地壳速度结构与该区域的地表地质构造和沉积作用有关,5～10 km太原盆地、临汾盆地显示明显V_p低速分布,灵石隆起是以沉积作用为主导的地质活动,存在较大范围的沉积物,在5～10 km同样显示低速分布;峨眉山地台、吕梁山脉、太行山山区显示高速分布。而吕梁山脉在10 km以上为低速分布,可能与大同火山的上地幔岩浆构造活动有关;太原盆地自15 km深度不再延续5～10 km的低速分布而显示高速分布,说明太原盆地不受大同火山区上地幔构造活动影响,受青藏高原的推挤作用形成的可能性更大。重定位结果显示：地震丛集在断陷带内分布,震源深度集中在0～30 km。太原盆地内地震丛集事件发生在太原盆地北部,深度集中在20～25 km之间,速度剖面显示位于低速向高速转换区域内;交城断裂的应力集中以及介质结构的高低速变换是太原北部地震从集的主要原因。运城盆地内地震分布除盐湖序列外没有明显的丛集性。2016年3月12日发生的M_L4.8盐湖序列,主震发生在低速向高速过度区域内,其余震震源深度较主震浅,且基本发生在下方存在高速分布的低速区域内。盐湖序列M_L4.8主震的震源机制解与附近中条山北麓断裂的高角度正断层性质一致,说明主震受中条山北麓断裂活动影响。余震震源类型复杂,其中,逆断和逆断兼走滑机制与该地区区域背景应力场不符。综合机制解和速度结构的结果认为盐湖序列的发生机理较复杂,可能受该区域介质结构、隐伏断裂分布等综合作用,还需进一步研究。     

中国北方裂谷型侏罗系含油气远景的再认识（代序）

中国北方裂谷型侏罗系在甘肃、内蒙古至东北区的广大地带皆未获油气突破,可视为该层系油气勘探的新区。改革开放前多轮勘探未获油气突破,与当时的技术水平低和认识的局限性有很大关系。近年,在柴达木盆地北缘、松辽盆地西南侧油气勘探的一系列新进展,坚定了在提高技术体系的同时重新评价其含油气性、进行新层系开拓的信心。作为侏罗纪古裂谷,该套地层纵横向发育有明显的共性,其煤系地层经历了复杂的后期改造,使其在残留地层的圈定、原型盆地的恢复、烃类演化运移及保存特点的认识上难度相当大。在此项工作中,应重视对煤系生烃和火山岩的研究,注意对区内不同目的层常规、非常规不同类型油气和沉积型铀矿的综合勘探。     

闽中裂谷系的格局演化及成矿系统时空结构

闽中裂谷系为转换-伸展型裂谷盆地系,其形成发展和复合-成矿作用是福建地史上的一个重大事件。研究认为:闽中裂谷系在古元古代结晶基底上形成于新元古代-早古生代(850～500Ma),盆山反转于奥陶-志留纪(447～412Ma);沉降中心迁移、伸展轴向改变并复活发展于中石炭世-中三叠世(315～223Ma),构造动力反转复合于侏罗纪(188～137Ma)-白垩纪(134～90Ma);构造格局演化驱动了喷流沉积-改(再)造成矿系统与斑岩(矽卡岩)-浅成热液成矿系统之间的复合交融。研究提出:(1)裂谷体内“麻源群”(部分改划古元古代迪口组变质核杂岩系)与马面山群、万全群同归南华纪;(2)裂谷成矿系统时空结构所昭示的闽省找矿主攻方向:在伸展体制主导的裂谷纵向(NNW、NE)“先张后压”型断层带特定层位找中大型喷流沉积-改(再)造型矿床,在挤压体制主导的裂谷横向(NEE)“先压后张”型断裂带特定岩系找大中型斑岩(矽卡岩)-浅成热液型矿床。