Seismic damage assessment based on regional synthetic ground motion dataset: a case study for Erzincan,Turkey

Estimation of seismic losses is a fundamental step in risk mitigation in urban regions. Structural damage patterns depend on the regional seismic properties and the local building vulnerability. In this study, a framework for seismic damage estimation is proposed where the local building fragilities are modeled based on a set of simulated ground motions in the region of interest. For this purpose, first, ground motion records are simulated for a set of scenario events using stochastic finite-fault methodology. Then, existing building stock is classified into specific building types represented with equivalent single-degree-of-freedom models. The response statistics of these models are evaluated through nonlinear time history analysis with the simulated ground motions. Fragility curves for the classified structural types are derived and discussed. The study area is Erzincan (Turkey), which is located on a pull-apart basin underlain by soft sediments in the conjunction of three active faults as right-lateral North Anatolian Fault, left-lateral North East Anatolian Fault, and left-lateral Ovacik Fault. Erzincan city center experienced devastating earthquakes in the past including the December 27, 1939 (Ms = 8.0) and the March 13, 1992 (Mw?=?6.6) events. The application of the proposed method is performed to estimate the spatial distribution of the damage after the 1992 event. The estimated results are compared against the corresponding observed damage levels yielding a reasonable match in between. After the validation exercise, a potential scenario event of Mw?=?7.0 is simulated in the study region. The corresponding damage distribution indicates a significant risk within the urban area.     

Modeling of damage-related earthquake losses in a moderate seismic-prone country and cost–benefit evaluation of retrofit investments: application to France

We performed large-scale earthquake economic loss estimations for France and cost–benefit analyses for several French cities by developing a semiempirical, intensity-based approach. The proposed methodology is inexpensive and easily applicable in case of a paucity of detailed information regarding the specific regional seismic hazard and the structural characteristics of the building stock, which is of particular importance in moderate-to-low seismic hazard regions. The exposure model is derived from census datasets, and the seismic vulnerability distribution of buildings is calculated using data mining techniques. Several hypothetical, large-scale retrofit scenarios are proposed, with increasing levels of investment. These cities, in their respective reinforced states, are then subjected to a series of hazard scenarios. Seismic hazard data for different return periods are calculated from regulatory accelerations from French seismic zoning. Loss estimations for the original (non-reinforced) configuration show high levels of expected building repair and replacement costs for all time spans. Finally, the benefits in terms of damage avoidance are compared with the costs of each retrofit measure. Relatively limited strengthening investments reduce the probability of building collapse, which is the main cause of human casualties. However, the results of this study suggest that retrofitting is, on average, only cost-effective in the parts of France with the highest seismicity and over the longest time horizons.     

Scenario-based earthquake loss estimation for the city of Cairo,Egypt

This paper describes a multi-tiered loss assessment methodology to estimate seismic monetary implications resulting from structural damage to the building population in Greater Cairo. After outlining a ground-shaking model, data on geological structures and surface soil conditions are collated using a considerable number of boreholes to produce a classification of different soil deposits. An inventory database for the existing building stock is also prepared. The seismic vulnerability of representative reinforced concrete building models, designed according to prevalent codes and construction practices, is evaluated. Capacity spectrum methods are utilised for assessing the structural performance through a multi-level damage scale. A simplified methodology for deriving fragility curves for non-ductile reinforced concrete building classes that typically constitute the building population of the city is adopted. In addition, suitable fragility functions for unreinforced masonry constructions are selected and used for completing the loss model for the study area. The results are finally used to build an event-based loss model caused by possible earthquakes in the region.     

Lessons learned from two case histories of seismic microzonation in Italy

The prediction of the variability of the seismic ground motion in a given built-up area is considered an effective tool to plan appropriate urban development, to undertake actions on seismic risk mitigation and to understand the damage pattern caused by a strong-motion event. The procedures for studying the seismic response and the seismic microzonation of an urban area are well established; nevertheless, some controversial points still exists and are discussed here. In this paper, the selection of a reference input motion, the construction of a subsoil model and the seismic response analysis procedures are discussed in detail, based on the authors’ experience in two Italian case histories: the seismic microzonation of the city of Benevento, which was a predictive study, and the simulation of seismic response and damage distribution in the village of San Giuliano di Puglia, which was a retrospective analysis.     

基于变形的土石坝地震风险分析

土石坝抗震安全的设计一般立足于预防结构的倒塌,如何使土石坝结构地震破损控制在可接受的风险水平是一个值得研究的重要课题。应用地震风险分析理论,建立了土石坝地震风险分析方法,包括地震危险性分析、地震易损性分析和地震灾害损失评估3个方面。在场地地震危险性分析基础上,将基于性能的抗震设计思想应用于土石坝结构地震易损性分析中,以土石坝坝顶相对沉陷为评价指标,划分土石坝震损等级,最后结合地震经济损失分析,建立了土石坝地震风险计算模型,在技术和经济上对土石坝地震破损风险进行分析计算。以某高土石坝为例,用该模型对大坝的震害和经济损失进行了预测分析,其结论可为土石坝安全评价及投资决策等提供依据。     

The Town Effect: Dynamic Interaction between a Group of Structures and Waves in the Ground

In a conventional approach, the mechanical behaviour of a structure subjected to seismic or blast waves is treated separately from its surroundings, and in many cases, the dynamic coupling effect between multiple structures and the waves propagating in the ground is disregarded. However, if many structures are built densely in a developed urban area, this dynamic interaction may not become negligible. The first purpose of this contribution is to briefly show the effect of multiple interactions between waves and surface buildings in a town. The analysis is based on a recently developed, fully coupled, rigorous mathematical study, and for simplicity, each building in the town is represented by a rigid foundation, a mass at the top and an elastic spring that connects the foundation and mass. The buildings stand at regular spatial intervals on a linear elastic half-space and are subjected to two-dimensional anti-plane vibrations. It is found that the buildings in this model significantly interact with each other through the elastic ground, and the resonant (eigen) frequencies of the collective system (buildings or town) become lower than that of a single building with the same rigid foundation. This phenomenon may be called the “town effect” or “city effect.” Then, second, it is shown that the actual, unique structural damage pattern caused by the 1976 Friuli, Italy, earthquake may better be explained by this “town effect,” rather than by investigating the seismic performance of each damaged building individually. The results suggest that it may also be possible to evaluate the physical characteristics of incident seismic/blast waves “inversely” from the damage patterns induced to structures by the waves.     

An object-based image analysis for building seismic vulnerability assessment using high-resolution remote sensing imagery

Building seismic vulnerability assessment plays an important role in formulating pre-disaster mitigation strategies for developing countries. The occurrence of high-resolution satellite sensors has greatly motivated it by providing a promising approach to obtain building information. However, this also brings a big challenge to the accurate building extraction and its coherent integration with the assessment model. The main objective of this paper is to investigate how to extract building attributes from high-resolution remote sensing imagery using the object-based image analysis (OBIA) method, so as to accurately and conveniently assess building seismic vulnerability by the combination of in situ field data. A general framework for the assessment of building seismic vulnerability is presented, including (1) the extraction of building information using OBIA, (2) building height estimation, and (3) the support vector machine (SVM)-based building seismic vulnerability assessment. Particularly, an integrated solution is proposed that merges the strengths of multiple spatial contextual relationships and some typical image object measures, under the unified framework to improve building information extraction at different scale levels as well as for different interest objects. With the aid of 35 building samples from two powerful earthquakes in China, the cloud-free WorldView-2 images and some building structure parameters from field survey were used to quantity the grades of building seismic vulnerability in Wuhan Optics Valley, China. The results show that all 48 buildings among the study area have been well detected with an overall accuracy of 80.67 % and the mean error of heights estimated from building shadow is less than 2 m. This indicates that the integrated analysis strategy based on OBIA is suitable for extracting the building information from high-resolution remote sensing imagery. Additionally, the assessment results using SVM show that the building seismic vulnerability is statistically significantly related to structure types and building heights. Both the proposed OBIA method and its integration strategy with SVM are easily implemented and provide readily interpretable assessment results for building seismic vulnerability. This reveals that the proposed method has a great potential to assist urban planners for making local disaster mitigation planning through the prioritization of intervention measures, such as the reinforcement of walls and the dismantlement of endangered houses.     

Methodology for benefit–cost analysis of seismic codes

A number of high-profile seismic events have occurred in recent years, with a wide variation in the resulting economic damage and loss of life. This variation has been attributed in part to the stringency of seismic building codes implemented in different regions. Using the HAZUS Earthquake Model, a benefit?Ccost analysis was performed on varying levels of standard buildings codes for Haiti and Puerto Rico. The methodology computes expected loss assuming a Poisson event process with lognormally distributed event magnitude and idealized damage?Cmagnitude response functions. The event frequency and magnitude distributions are estimated from the historical record, while the damage functions are fit using HAZUS simulation results for events with systematically varying magnitudes and different seismic code levels. To validate the approach, a single-event analysis was conducted using alternative building codes and mean magnitude earthquakes. A probabilistic analysis was then used to evaluate the long-term expected value for alternative levels of building codes. To account for the relationship between lives saved and economic loss, the implicit cost of saving a life is computed for each code option. It was found that in the two areas studied, the expected loss of life was reduced the most by use of high seismic building code levels, but lower levels of seismic building code were more cost-effective when considering only building damages and the costs for code implementation. The methodology presented is meant to provide a basic framework for the future development of an economic-behavioral model for code adoption.     

基于应变空间多机构CG模型的地震液化大变形数值分析

砂土液化导致的地基侧向大变形是地震中许多重要的工程设施和建筑物破坏的主要原因之一。简要介绍了可进行液化大变形分析的散粒体材料本构模型--应变空间多机构CG模型,基于FLIP ROSE程序平台,建立了预测和研究倾斜地基砂土液化导致侧向大变形的二维有限元数值分析方法。采用该模型对相同工况的土工动态离心模型试验进行了模拟,通过对比超孔隙水压力、剪切波水平加速度以及地基侧向位移发现,数值预测与试验结果吻合良好,从而验证了该有限元数值分析模型的可靠性。最后利用该数值分析模型预测了倾斜率不同的地基受到相同剪切波作用时,倾斜地基不同深度产生的侧向位移。预测结果显示,随着地基深度的减小,倾斜率对于地震液化导致倾斜地基侧向大变形的影响越来越显著。     

河流冲积平原饱和砂土区地下管线渗漏诱发地面塌陷机制研究

河流冲积平原区是我国城市建设的主要区域,地层以松散冲洪积物为主,该地区地下管网破损带走松散地层极易形成隐蔽性很高的地下空洞,进而诱发地面塌陷,威胁人身财产和基础设施安全。以安庆市长风路地面塌陷为例,建立渗流、应力多场可控的等比实体模型箱,开展城市地面塌陷仿真实验,分析带水管线破损后地层中孔洞发育过程及孔洞周边各个方向应力变化特征,旨在揭示地面塌陷形成机制。结果表明：（1）安庆市长风路地面塌陷从孕育倒塌陷,经历了小孔、竖直孔洞、塌陷坑三种形态,可将地下异常孔洞当作前兆进行预警;（2）河流冲积平原区城市地面塌陷的孕灾环境是地层的高渗透性地层和地下水位,诱发因子是管道的破损,尤其是污水排水管道破损;（3）城市地面塌陷危害大小主要受控于管道及地下水位相对埋深,且可以根据地层性质可对塌陷坑的大小进行计算评估。该成果可为城市地面塌陷风险评价、防治区划等提供理论基础。     

Sudden surface collapse disasters caused by shallow partial mining in Datong coalfield,China

Numerous sudden surface collapses induced by shallow partial mining in the Datong Jurassic coal seam have caused fatalities, significant property losses and brought about harmful results to the environment. By introducing efficient pillar widths and using the Voronoi diagram, irregular pillar stability can be estimated rationally. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulation demonstrate that the failure of a single pillar increases the load on surrounding pillars. If the magnitude of the transferred load is sufficiently high, the adjoining pillars will also fail in a chain reaction. This can be interpreted by the merger of inner stress arches combined with the external stress arch. In this paper, the evolution mode of sudden surface collapse caused by shallow partial mining is proposed and has been verified by ‘similar material simulation.’ Finally, the potential of sudden surface collapse is determined and an example of collapse prediction and prevention of surface building damage with relocation is given.     

地震波作用下崩塌影响因素及破坏机制分析

汶川地震触发了大量崩塌、滑坡等次生地质灾害,位于卧龙熊猫苑圈舍后山崩塌就是1处典型的震动触发破坏。崩塌区域距离震源点较近,地震作用是导致崩塌破坏的主控外在因素; 而地形地貌和岩体结构特征是关键的内在影响因素。在现场调查和室内试验的基础上,采用离散元计算软件对坡体在地震作用下的动力响应特征进行数值模拟,以获得坡体的崩塌破坏机制、优势震裂区域和控制性因素。数值模拟结果表明:(1)地震纵横波的耦合作用引起的对岩体的拉压和剪切是崩塌的直接动力; (2)在地震波作用初期,近于陡立节理最先产生拉张破坏,形成楔形裂缝,并从坡表向坡内延伸,后期,由于倾向坡外节理和层面的存在,裂解的块体向坡外倾倒和滑移,整体形似弯曲状,并产生整体失稳; (3)由于地震惯性力效应,表层的震裂岩体在崩塌开始时是具备一定初始速度的,这也是地震诱发崩塌破坏影响范围较大的主要原因之一。对于类似坡体的潜在崩塌破坏的防治应以对陡倾裂隙的加固防治为主并结合坡肩的加强支护。     

强震区城市地质灾害风险管理的研究内容与方法探讨

地质灾害风险管理是一种寻求更加合理有效的地质灾害减灾防灾的理念和模式。随着山区城市化进程的加快,经济和人口在城市的相对聚集,加之强烈地震活动,使得山区城市面临风险不断地提高。研究强震城市风险管理,已成为当前城市防灾减灾工作的一项重大课题。本文概述了国内外研究进展,提出该研究方向的主要研究内容和研究方法。未来研究内容应该包括（1）强震区城市地质灾害风险结构与风险量化分析,（2）城市地震地质灾害风险判据研究与风险准则建立,（3）强震区城市地质灾害管制的途径和方法研究,（4）强震区城市地质灾害管制的效能监控机制研究,（5）强震区城市地质灾害风险管制的模式与规范体系研究。     

Empirical seismic vulnerability,deterministic risk and monetary loss assessment in Fira (Santorini,Greece)

A deterministic seismic risk and monetary loss model is presented for the capital of Santorini volcanic Island, the town of Fira, on a building block scale. A local seismic source of M5.6 inferred from a recent volcano unrest in 2011–2012, detailed seismic vulnerability of 435 buildings and site conditions deduced from free-field ambient noise measurements were combined toward assessing the EMS-98 damage grade and its probability to occur. The seismic scenario yielded no damage or slight damage for 84% of the buildings, 16% of the constructions are expected to present moderate-to-heavy damage, while the economic loss amounts to 4 million euros. Although the model predicts low damage and direct economic loss, interaction with the touristic business activities might produce cascade side effects for the economy of the island and consequently Greece’s GDP, an important part of which emanates from Santorini.     

Archaeoseismological evidence of past earthquakes in Rome (fifth to ninth century A.D.) used to quantify dating uncertainties and coseismic damage

The transformation of Rome during the Late Antiquity and the Early Middle Ages has been investigated by archaeologists and historians. Social and political changes are the main aspects which led to a progressive modification of the urban framework; abandonment, spoliation and transformation of buildings are quite diffused as documented by the archaeological literature. The consequence of these practices is a higher vulnerability of the buildings which, from the seismological point of view, played a main role in increasing the effects of seismic shaking. A number of earthquakes have struck Rome during the period of investigation (fifth to ninth century A.D.), known from historical sources: 443, 484–508, 618, 801, 847; in some cases (443, 484–508, 801) damage has been documented. In contrast, the archaeological sources characterise collapse layers and evidence of destruction at different sites with changing and not always conclusive chronological constraints. Consequently, collapse and destruction have been alternatively attributed to the above-mentioned earthquakes. Through a geoarchaeological and stratigraphic analysis of potentially coseismic collapse units, we want (1) to describe the archaeoseismic evidence derived from recent excavations and from the available literature (e.g. Piazza Madonna di Loreto, Piazza Venezia, Palazzo Valentini Crypta Balbi, Colosseo, Basilica Hilariana, Basilica di Santa Petronilla, Santa Maria Antiqua,…); (2) to discuss the chronological problems and the uncertainty of attribution of the collapse units to known historical earthquakes; (3) to discuss the earthquake damage exaggeration due to erroneous attribution of seismic origin to the evidence of destruction derived from archaeological data. Finally, we will infer the role that earthquakes may have had on the development of the urban landscape in the fifth to ninth century A.D.     

Probability-based damage assessment for reinforced concrete bridge columns considering the corrosive and seismic hazards in Taiwan

In this paper, we consider the time at which earthquake events occur when analyzing seismic structural damage to a deteriorating RC bridge within a specified period. Because the uncertainty exists in the occurrence time of earthquake events, Monte Carlo simulation is applied. The proposed procedure for evaluating the exceedance probability, which corresponds to a specified limit state, is then applied to a case study of RC bridges in Taiwan to demonstrate its applicability. This study selects three typical RC bridges located in the Taipei Basin, Taiwan, to analyze exceedance probabilities of specified damage states during various specified periods and then discusses the cumulative damage effect on the exceedance probabilities of specified damage states. Additionally, for the chloride-induced deteriorating bridges at various distances to the sea in Suao, Taiwan, the effects of the deterioration and seismic structural damage on the exceedance probabilities of specified damage states are demonstrated and discussed. The proposed assessment procedure can help engineers understand whether the deterioration would accelerate the declining seismic performance of bridges and shorten their serviceability-related and safety-related service lives, as well as provide reference for repairing RC bridges and retrofitting their seismic performance.     

Seismic risk assessment of buildings in urban areas: a case study for Denizli,Turkey

This study aims to carry out a seismic risk assessment for a typical mid-size city based on building inventory from a field study. Contributions were made to existing loss estimation methods for buildings. In particular, a procedure was introduced to estimate the seismic quality of buildings using a scoring scheme for the effective parameters in seismic behavior. Denizli, a typical mid-size city in Turkey, was used as a case study. The building inventory was conducted by trained observers in a selected region of Denizli that had the potential to be damaged from expected future earthquakes according to geological and geotechnical studies. Parameters that are known to have some effect on the seismic performance of the buildings during past earthquakes were collected during the inventory studies. The inventory includes data of about 3,466 buildings on 4,226 parcels. The evaluation of inventory data provided information about the distribution of building stock according to structural system, construction year, and vertical and plan irregularities. The inventory data and the proposed procedure were used to assess the building damage, and to determine casualty and shelter needs during the M6.3 and 7.0 scenario earthquakes, representing the most probable and maximum earthquakes in Denizli, respectively. The damage assessment and loss studies showed that significant casualties and economic losses can be expected in future earthquakes. Seismic risk assessment of reinforced concrete buildings also revealed the priorities among building groups. The vulnerability in decreasing order is: (1) buildings with 6 or more stories, (2) pre-1975 constructed buildings, and (3) buildings with 3–5 stories. The future studies for evaluating and reducing seismic risk for buildings should follow this priority order. All data of inventory, damage, and loss estimates were assembled in a Geographical Information System (GIS) database.     

Verification of a new method for evaluation of liquefaction potential analysis

The seismic response of existing earth dams in Iran is important after an earthquake both to provide emergency supplies and to society as well as to ensure structural safety in engineering terms. Better seismic capacity of earth dam results in less structural damage and reduced impacts following an earthquake disaster. Indirect as well as direct costs following earthquakes have gained much attention from both the engineering and socioec onomic research communities in the last few decades. This study is a valuable tool used to study the response of geotechnical structures to infrequent or extreme events such as earthquakes. The Avaj earthquake (2002, Iran) was applied to a series of model tests which was conducted to study the response of soil profiles under seismic loading. The acceleration records at different locations within the soil bed and at its surface along with the settlement records at the surface were used to analyze the soil seismic response. A combination of several software packages with a generated visual user interface computer code by authors named as “Abbas Converter” were employed to evaluate the variation of shear modulus and damping ratio with shear strain amplitude to assess their effects on site response. The proposed method was applied to the Korzan earth dam of Hamedan province in Iran. Site response analysis using the measured shear wave velocity, estimated modulus reduction, and damping ratio as input parameters produced good agreement with the computed site response in this study.     

Damage characteristics and influence factors of mountain tunnels under strong earthquakes

A total of 81 mountain tunnels that were damaged in 10 strong earthquakes are studied. They are classified into six typical damage characteristics: lining cracks, shear failure of lining, tunnel collapse caused by slope failure, portal cracking, leaking, and deformation of sidewall/invert damage. Further study and discussion are carried out on influencing factors for mountain tunnels, including seismic parameters, structural information, and rock conditions. Suggestions are also made regarding seismic resistance and reduction.