改革开放以来中国国内人口迁移及其研究

从人口迁移进程的变化、人口迁移的主要原因与迁移选择和迁移方式、迁移人口对城市社会经济活动的参与及影响等方面,综述中国改革开放以来的人口迁移进程及研究成果。大量的实证研究,使人们对中国国内人口迁移有了日益清晰的认识,但多数仍停留在国外人口迁移理论的框架之内。在人口迁移与加快户籍制度改革、与城市居民就业和产业结构调整的关系,及迁移人口对区域社会经济发展差异分析比较的影响等方面还需进行深入研究。     

区域协调发展背景下流动人口回流的空间意愿及其政策含义

人口空间分布格局的改变既是区域协调发展战略实施的结果,也是推进区域协调发展的重要手段之一。本文以流动人口的回流空间意愿作为切入点,采用全国性大规模抽样问卷调查数据,对流动人口回流的空间意愿、群体差异和影响因素进行研究,并探讨其对区域协调发展和新型城镇化的政策含义。研究发现,流动人口的回流意愿薄弱;对具有回流意愿的流动人口来说,回流空间的路径选择以返回原居地为主、乡镇中心和县城为辅。模型结果显示,流动人口回流空间选择不仅是其人力资本和流动经历正向选择的结果,也显著地受到流出地住房和流入地的就业收入和养老保险等因素的影响,而流出地的家庭需求和空间成本则无显著影响。在此背景下,政策制定者不能高估人口回流对人口流动空间格局和人口均衡发展的调整作用,也不能高估回流劳动力对流出地城镇化和城乡协调发展的促进作用,而应加强流出地城镇自我可持续发展的能力,吸引人口主动回流,以推进区域协调发展和新型城镇化战略的落实。     

空气质量对中国人口迁移的影响

随着中国流动人口群体构成和迁移模式的持续变化,空气质量等舒适性要素逐渐成为塑造人口迁移空间格局的重要因素.基于2000年以来的人口普查和抽样调查数据,本文探讨了空气质量对人口迁移影响的总体特征、变动趋势和作用模式.研究发现,空气质量已逐渐成为影响中国人口迁移格局的重要因素,且主要表现为推力作用.空气质量直接关系到人口迁...     

中国流动人口的跨等级流动及其对流入城市住房选择的影响

妥善解决流动人口在流入城市的住房问题是实现流动人口市民化和提高新型城镇化发展质量的关键。本文基于2017年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,揭示了流动人口的跨等级流动格局,并探讨了跨等级流动对流动人口在流入城市住房选择的影响。研究发现：① 流动人口以跨等级向上流动为主,其中向上跨三级、两级流动的比例较大;② 不同流出地的流动人口在流入城市的住房选择存在显著差异,流出城市的人均GDP和平均房价越高,流动人口在流入城市获得住房产权的概率越大;③ 流入城市的平均房价越高,流动人口获得商品房的概率越低,随着流入城市人均GDP的增加,流动人口购买商品房的概率先增后降,而购买不完全产权房的概率则恰恰相反;④ 随着流动人口跨越城市等级的增加,其获得住房产权的概率降低,而租赁正规住房的可能性增大。研究结果有助于深化理解流动人口在流入城市住房选择的地理根源,对进一步优化面向流动人口的住房政策具有参考意义。     

China's Permanent and Temporary Migrants: Differentials and Changes, 1990–2000

A unique feature of migration in China is its two-track system, one consisting of permanent migration and temporary migration. This article examines whether and how hukou reforms and the maturation of migration streams since the 1980s have changed the two-track system. Using data on interprovincial migration from the 1990 and 2000 censuses, our empirical analysis focuses on the differentials between permanent migrants and temporary migrants and their changes over time. We document the size, migration reasons, and selectivity of migrants, and we evaluate the determinants of the dichotomy between permanent migrants and temporary migrants via logistic regression models. Our findings show that between 1990 and 2000 the gaps between interprovincial permanent migrants and temporary migrants did not narrow but in most aspects had widened. There is little evidence that hukou reforms have lowered the barriers to urban citizenship. At the same time, a larger spectrum of the rural population has joined the temporary migration streams. The net result is a persistence of the two-track migration system, where permanent migrants increasingly assume the position of social and economic elites and temporary migrants are the disadvantaged and disenfranchised.     

中国大中城市流动人口迁移规律研究

本文在对西方国家人口流动研究进行综述的基础上,通过北京,天津,南京,廓坊,唐山和昆山等大中城市流动人口问卷调查,首次对大中城市流动人口迁移和流动特征,从业结构,迁移原因与途径进行了系统的研究。中国现在正在经历大规模的农村流动人口向城市迁移的过程。     

回流城镇化：中部地区城镇化开启新路径

在对流动人口流向变化研究的基础上,通过对中部地区的实地走访和问卷调研,兼与沿海地区对比分析,提出中部地区城镇化正在开启新路径,即回流城镇化。研究总结了回流城镇化的新特点,包括县级中心城市成为回流城镇化主要载体,城乡之间出现了摆动的“两栖”人口,地级市中心城区也是回流城镇化的重要选项。回流城镇化主要由沿海经济发达地区的产业转移、亲情社会网络、回流创业内生动力的发展等驱动。最后,论文在理论层面总结了回流城镇化对中国城镇化路径研究的启示。     

新型城镇化背景下中国流动人口研究:议题与展望

研究通过4个议题（户籍与人口流动,循环流动、定居意愿及家庭策略,社会网络和移民社区,迁移、流动性和移民的日常生活）,回顾了近年来乡城人口迁移的研究。指出：户籍政策对移民在城市中的生计带来的影响将减弱,移民的住房及在城市的居住模式和居住空间、社会交往、生活方式、移民身份建构及生活空间的重构等将会成为新的关注点。新文化地理学中关于移民“微观化”“生活化”的研究应受到更多的重视。换言之,如何理解移民在个体层面的诉求和移民的日常生活,将会是未来流动性研究的重点。如何立足于国内移民地理研究的基础与发展机遇,批判性地与西方移民研究搭建对话空间和平台,结合当前中国崛起过程中所呈现的前所未有的全球化与城镇化契机,为世界移民研究积累和贡献“中国知识”,将成为未来这一领域学者研究的方向。     

Spatial pattern and driving factors of migrants on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: Insights from short-distance and long-distance population migrants

As one of the most ecologically sensitive issues in the world,migration now plays an important role in population growth on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.To promote sustainable development in the world's third pole,it is necessary to investigate population migration on the Plateau.Using 2010 census data,a spatial database of county-level migrants on the Plateau was constructed,and migrants were divided into short-distance and long-distance migrants according to the hukou-registered origins.Measuring migration intensity allowed the spatial pattern of population migration on the Plateau to be ascertained.The driving factors were identified using spatial regression models,and the main conclusions are as follows:(1)In 2010,there were 1.23 million inter-county migrants on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,and the overall migration intensity reached 10.50％.There existed significant spatial differences in population migration intensity on the Plateau at that time,and the provincial or prefectural capitals were attractive destinations for migrants.Northwestern Qinghai,which boasted min-ing industries,constituted a significant spatial cluster with a relatively high migration intensity.However,most areas on the Plateau attracted relatively few migrants,especially in western and northern parts of Tibet,which were sparsely populated and uninhabitable.(2)There were 0.95 million short-distance migrants and 0.28 million long-distance migrants.The short-dis-tance migration intensity was 8.14％,while the long-distance migration intensity was only 2.36％.Short-distance migration was the main form of population migration,with a pattern similar to the layout of overall population migration intensity.Only a few county-level units strongly attracted long-distance migrants,which were mostly distributed in northwestern Qinghai.(3)Economic factors were considered fundamental drivers for migrants to live on the Plateau.Destinations with high levels of economic development and more opportunities in non-agricultural jobs proved more attractive for migrants.For short-distance migrants,ur-banization level also proved a considerable driving factor for in-migration.However,long-distance migrants were mainly affected by the job chances of the secondary industry on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.     

Modelling population retention in Australia’s Northern Territory – how do current forms of migration contribute to population turnover and retention?

ABSTRACT

In the past, population growth in Australia's Northern Territory, as in other peripheral parts of high-income countries, has been driven by internal labour migration and migration from outside of Australia. These have been contributing to the high population turnover experienced in peripheral areas. Since 2010, the Northern Territory has experienced low (and even negative) population growth, and public policy is currently focused on migration as a lever to reverse this trend. However, the extent to which the characteristics of migrants influence the potential for longer-term population growth is poorly understood. This paper uses a new method to analyse the contributions of various types of migrants to both population turnover and retention. Two major sets of findings emerge: First, the significance of separating newer in-migrants from longer-term residents when analysing migration patterns; and secondly, the contribution of age, gender, Indigenous status, international origin, wages and industry of employment to the Northern Territory's population turnover. The research suggests that current forms of migration favour people who are likely to stay for only short periods, and have high wage demands. The main policy inference is that long-term population growth will likely not eventuate unless new forms of migration can be stimulated.     

多维邻近性与城-城流动人口的流入地选择——基于嵌套Logit模型的实证分析

基于2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,采用嵌套Logit模型分析了地理、制度、信息和知识等多维邻近性对城-城流动人口流入地选择的影响.结果 表明:城-城流动人口倾向于流入与户籍地地理相邻、制度相似、信息联系密切以及与自身知识水平相匹配的城市,这在一定程度上缓解人口向工资水平高、就业机会多和公共服务水平好的大城市集...     

邻近性对人口再流动目的地选择的影响

中国人口流动进入总量稳定下的空间调整新阶段,存量流动人口的再流动成为塑造人口和城镇化格局的主体因素。本文从户籍地和前期流入地两个基点出发,综合考虑地理、制度、信息、社会、认知等维度,构建了双重多维邻近性影响人口再流动目的地选择的理论框架,利用全国流动人口动态监测调查数据和嵌套Logit模型开展实证研究。结果表明：双重多维邻近性对人口再流动的空间选择具有显著而稳健的影响。人口再流动时,会选择与自身知识水平更匹配、与户籍地和前期流入地都更近、信息联系都更强的城市,但社会联系仍主要依靠老家。流动人口具有回到户籍所在省（区、市）的主观意愿,但省内城市普遍机会不多、环境欠佳,缺乏吸引力。相对而言,女性对同乡网络的依赖高于男性;新生代流动人口在很多方面继承了老一代的特点,甚至比后者更依赖老家的信息和社会联系;高学历流动人口在流入地的深度社会融入使其能够利用本地化社会资本,再流动的空间选择也与流入地居民更为类似。     

中国五大城市群人口流入的空间模式及变动趋势

城市群在中国城镇化格局中占有重要地位,也是快速城市化时期的主要人口流入地。本文关注京津冀、长三角、珠三角、长江中游和成渝五大城市群,利用人口普查和流动人口动态监测调查数据,从流入人口分布格局、流动范围和来源地等多维度剖析城市群人口流入的空间模式,并从居留和落户意愿空间差异的视角探讨空间模式的发展趋势及其对流入地和流出地的影响。研究发现,各城市群流入人口向中心城市持续集中,等级和空间分布格局总体稳定;流动范围有所扩大,省内流动增速普遍高于省际;沿海城市群人口吸引范围大但仍服从距离衰减律,不同来源地流入人口的城市群偏好存在差异。在流入地,沿海城市群中心城市面临流动人口管理服务的持续挑战,内陆城市群中心城市和一般城市吸引力并存;在流出地,平等开放的高质量公共服务供给是吸引人口回流的重要途径,少数地区的人口流失可能成为较长期的现象。     

居住选择对流动人口城市居留意愿的影响——基于一项对福建省流动人口的调查

采用2015年福建省流动人口抽样调查数据,使用序次回归模型,系统分析由住房产权类型、居住区位、居住家庭化程度和住房支付能力衡量的居住选择如何影响流动人口的城市居留意愿。结果发现：当将长期居住意愿、户籍迁移意愿和永久定居意愿3部分指标的加和定义为城市居留意愿指标时,流动人口在城市居留意愿远低于预期,真正愿意将长期居住、户籍迁移、永久定居三者统一起来的流动人口不足二成。回归模型结果表明,居住选择的确对流动人口的城市居留意愿产生显著影响,在控制流动人口的个人、家庭特征和流动状况等变量后,拥有住房所有权、居住在中心城区、与家人一起居住和更高的住房支付能力的流动人口,更愿意在城市永久定居。     

中国人口户籍迁移与非户籍迁移的比较

现阶段中国的人口迁移分为户籍迁移和非户籍迁移两类,对二者的比较和整合分析有助于深化对国内人口迁移的理论认识,也便于与国际同类研究相衔接。本文估算了2011—2017年中国地级及以上城市的户籍与非户籍净迁移人口数量,分析和比较了二者的基本空间格局特征及影响因素。结果表明：户籍和非户籍迁移具有总体相似的空间正相关和内陆分异的局部聚类特征,东部沿海三大城市群间具有明显的差异性,两类迁移人口在城市间的分布特征不同且非户籍迁移数量的极差比户籍迁移更大,两类迁移的新增数量均与已有流动人口存量正相关;新增户籍迁移受经济机会差异影响明显,一些经济水平较高的大城市凭借人才政策吸引人口户籍迁入,非户籍迁移主要响应教育、医疗等公共服务差异;户籍迁移的市场化特征随落户限制的放松而不断强化,但存在城市和人口的双向选择性,非户籍迁移出现从经济性迁移转向舒适性迁移的趋势。最后从理论和政策角度探讨了中国人口迁移转型与户籍制度改革方向。     

U.S. Intercounty Migration in the 1990s: People and Income Move Down the Urban Hierarchy

Internal migration within the United States continues to transform both the magnitude and composition of population at all geographic scales. During 1994 ‐ 1995, the majority of counties gained both people and income, largely as a consequence of net outmigration by higher income migrants from the nation's most populous cities. Regionally, net gainers of both people and income included counties in the West and South as well as other areas renowned for environmental amenities. Spatially, net migration flowed down the urban hierarchy from large central cities to adjacent suburbs which, in turn, exported migrants to exurban areas. Large cities tended to exchange migrants with nearby counties as well as other large cities. Migration patterns such as these are contributing to spatial deconcentration and economic disparity.     

中国东部地区流动人口城市间横向迁移规律

基于中国东部地区6 个城市流动人口问卷调查,并在对已有人口迁移规律研究进行梳理的基础上,通过比较流动人口每一次迁移前一城市和后一城市的差异以及整个迁移过程中迁移速度、迁移距离、迁移城市规模、城市经济发展水平、区域路径等方面的变化趋势,分析流动人口进入城市后在城市间横向迁移的规律和特点。研究发现:东部地区流动人口城市间横向迁移不仅速度快,城市平均居留时间短,而且在多次迁移过程中迁移流向、迁移的空间轨迹方面呈现出更为复杂的特点:随着迁移次数的增加,迁移距离增加,遵循由近及远的同时回流现象明显;随着迁移次数的增加,由收入较高城市流向收入较低城市的比例以及流向中等城市的比例显著提高,不存在由大到小的递补特征;在相邻城市或相同经济区范围内多次往返迁移现象明显。     

人口集聚区吸纳人口迁入的影响因素——以东莞市为例

人口集聚区的地域特征差异对人口迁移行为产生较大影响,从地域特征出发研究人口集聚区对于迁入人口的作用机制可为地域功能区划和配置公共服务设施提供参考。本文以人口迁移的推拉理论为基础,构建人口集聚区对迁入人口拉力作用的指标体系。以东莞市为案例,综合运用主成分分析和多元回归分析方法,识别人口集聚区对迁入人口的作用力以及各类拉力的作用强度。结果显示：① 东莞市各乡镇人口集聚程度差异较大,且空间分布不均衡;在1995-2000年全市人口迅速集聚期,区域人口集聚度主要与地区就业岗位增加、人均收入水平提高、人口迁移的路径依赖相关。② 该市以劳动密集型加工业为主的产业特色给迁入人口提供了更多的就业机会;其相对较高的工资水平,对外来人口形成了强大的吸引力。③ 人口以路径依赖的形式进行链式迁移可以减低迁移过程中的风险和成本。④ 对人口集聚作用由强到弱依次为：路径依赖拉力、就业岗位拉力、收入水平拉力;综合的区域拉力与人口集聚度呈三次曲线关系。     

Population geography in China since the 1980s: Forging the links between population studies and human geography

This paper reviews the progress of population geography in China since the 1980s. The review results suggest that contrary to the common perception of its invisibility and marginalized status in the field, tremendous progress has been made in population geography in China since the 1980s. Population geographers have made significant contribution to the understanding of a wide range of population issues from geographical perspectives, including migration, urbanization, population distribution, the relationships between population, environment and resources, aging, marriage patterns, and migrants’ crimes, although such contribution often did not appear in the geographical circle. Furthermore, population geographers have played an indispensable role in revitalizing population studies in China and forging its links to human geography, occupying an important position in this multi-disciplinary field. Population geographers’ contribution to the areas of migration and urbanization research has been particularly significant, reflected in their leading roles in these areas’ research. The paper demonstrates that as latecomers in the field after more than 20 years of isolation, population geographers in China have gone through a process of catching up and increasing engagement with developments in social sciences and increasing interaction with social scientists since the 1980s, and have benefited greatly from it; however, there is a tendency for population geography to be increasingly alienated from the main stream human geography, a phenomenon similar to but not exactly the same as Anglo-American geography in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The paper argues that population geography is only half way in the course to forge the links between population studies and human geography, and it needs to return to geographical sciences to strike a healthy balance between the field of population studies and that of human geography, and promote its further development in a multi-disciplinary field.     

The regional types of China’s floating population: Identification methods and spatial patterns

With the rapid increase of the number and influence of floating population in China, it is urgently needed to understand the regional types of China’s floating population and their spatial characteristics. After reviewing the current methods for identifying regional types of floating population, this paper puts forward a new composite-index identification method and its modification version which is consisted of two indexes of the net migration rate and gross migration rate. Then, the traditional single-index and the new composite-index identification methods are empirically tested to explore their spatial patterns and characteristics by using China’s 2000 census data at county level. The results show: (1) The composite-index identification method is much better than traditional single-index method because it can measure the migration direction and scale of floating simultaneously, and in particular it can identify the unique regional types of floating population with large scale of immigration and emigration. (2) The modified composite-index identification method, by using the share of a region’s certain type of floating population to the total in China as weights, can effectively correct the over- or under-estimated errors due to the rather large or small total population of a region. (3) The spatial patterns of different regional types of China’s floating population are closely related to the regional differentiation of their natural environment, population density and socio- economic development level. The three active regional types of floating population are mainly located in the eastern part of China with lower elevation, more than 800 mm precipitation, rather higher population densities and economic development levels.