Maximum entropy spectral analysis of total ozone

Total ozone data series for 1957–82 at ten locations were subjected to Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis. Besides the annual, semi-annual, and quasi-biennial oscillations, peaks were noticed at 3.5–4, 6–7, and 10–11 years. For Arosa, Switzerland, for a longer period (1932–71), an additional peak was indicated at about 16 years.     

GRACE和SLR观测的地球动力学扁率最大熵谱及小波相关分析

卫星重力测量技术的实现为测定地球动力学扁率提供了新的方式和途径,GRACE卫星是目前最新的重力测量卫星,据其恢复的低阶重力场较以往精度得到大大提高,然而其观测地球动力学扁率（二阶项）却与卫星激光测距（SLR）结果相差较大.本文采用最大熵谱和小波分析方法对GRACE和SLR观测的地球动力学扁率时间序列信号进行定量比较分析,结果表明：GRACE观测的地球动力学扁率年际周期变化振幅仅为SLR观测结果的25%,并且目前GRACE观测的地球动力学扁率数据中含有系统输入信息和相位差,但前者较后者包含有较强的短周期（2～6月）信息.造成这种差异的主要原因可能来自于GRACE与SLR全球观测数据时空分布不同.     

Maximum entropy spectral characteristics of seismic activity for great earthquakes in China

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Maximum entropy spectral analysis of volcanic tremor using data from Etna (Sicily) and Merapi (central Java)

The maximum entropy spectral analysis (MESA) method is applied to synthetic and observed tremor time series using autoregressive processes and recordings from the volcanoes Etna (Sicily) and Merapi (central Java). The MESA analysis can be used to estimate power spectra with sharp peaks from short data records. If the tremor source process can be modelled by an autoregressive process, the MESA method is well-suited for determining the coefficients of the underlying difference equations. As in the standard periodogram method of power spectrum estimation, a mesagram estimate using record segmentation and MESA spectrum averaging reduces the variance of the spectral estimator. In combination with periodogram estimates, mesagram estimates confirm that the tremor source may be modelled as an ensemble of randomly excited resonators. Used together, these estimates provide a valuable method for short-term monitoring of volcanic activity. In addition, they can be applied to the determination of new source parameters such as resonator frequencies, damping coefficients, excitation probabilities, correlation of exciting forces, and resonator coupling and in the pattern recognition of source types.     

Predictive spectral analysis of short records using maximum entropy

Summary A method of spectral analysis based on the prediction of the signal by means of AR parameters is proposed. The essence of this method ranks it between the classical methods of spectral analysis and the method of maximum entropy. For sufficiently high SNR its resolution is higher than that of the classical methods. The new method enables power and phase spectra of the signal to be determined, and provides a better determination of the power spectrum amplitude. than the method of maximum entropy. A regularization procedure is presented which abolished the instability of the prediction filter, obtained by the least-squares method.

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Some critical remarks on trend analysis of total ozone data

Summary The 45-year series of total ozone observations at Arosa, Switzerland, is used, after being homogenized, to study the significance of the trend in atmospheric ozone content which seems to exist during the past decade. Much larger trends than during the 1960s were observed at Arosa during certain periods in the past. Trend values are decreasing with increasing period length. Even trends observed in a world-wide network must be considered with caution as long as the network is not dense enough and not equally distributed over the globe.     

Long-term variation of total ozone

The long-term variation of total ozone is studied for 1957 up to date for different latitude zones. The 3-year running averages show that, apart from a small portion showing parallelism with sunspot cycles, the trends in different latitude zones are dissimilar. In particular, where northern latitudes show a rising trend, the southern latitudes show an opposite (decreasing) trend. In the north-temperate group, Europe, North America and Asia show dissimilar trends. The longer data series (1932 ownards) for Arosa shows, besides a solar-cycle-dependent component, a steady level during 1932–1953 and a down-trend thereafter up to date. Very localised but long-lasting circulation patterns, different in different geographical regions, are indicated.     

Prediction possibilities of Arosa total ozone

Using the periodicities obtained by a Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis (MESA) of the Arosa total ozone data (CC) series for 1932–1971, the values predicted for 1972 onwards were compared with the observed values of the (AD) series. A change of level was noticed, with the observed (AD) values lower by about 7 D.U. Also, the matching was poor in 1980, 1981, 1982. In the monthly values, the most prominent periodicity was the annual wave, comprising some 80% variance. In the 12 month running averages, the annual wave was eliminated and the most prominent periodicity wasT=3.7 years, encompassing roundly 20% variance. This and other periodicities atT=4.7, 5.4, 6.2, 10 and 16 years were all statistically significant at a 3.5a priori i.e., 2a posteriori level. However, the predictions from these were unsatisfactory, probably because some of these periodicities may betransient i.e., changing amplitudes and/or phases with time. Thus, no meaningful prediction seem possible for Arosa total ozone.     

Problems of standardization of total ozone measurements

Pure and Applied Geophysics -     

Validation of GOME total ozone by means of the Norwegian ozone monitoring network

The Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) onboard the ERS-2 satellite has been in operation since July 1995. The Norwegian ground-based total ozone network has played an important role both in the main validation during the commissioning phase and in the validation of upgraded versions of the analysis algorithms of the instrument. The ground-based network consists of various spectrometer types (Dobson, Brewer, UV filter instruments). The validation of the second algorithm version used until January 1998 reveals a very good agreement between GOME and ground-based data at solar zenith angles <60° and deviations of GOME total ozone data from ground-based data of up to ±60 DU (∼20%) at zenith angles ≥60°. The deviations strongly depend on the season of the year, being negative in summer and positive in winter/spring, The deviations furthermore show a considerable scattering (up to ±25 DU in monthly average values of 5° SZA intervals), even in close spatial and temporal coincidence with ground-based measurements, especially in the high Arctic. The deviations are also dependent on the viewing geometry/ground pixel size with an additional negative offset for the large pixels used in the backswath mode and at solar zenith angles ≥85°, compared to forward-swath pixels.     

首都圈地区地震时间序列的最大熵谱分析方法及地震危险性预测

利用最大熵谱分析方法和最大熵原理方法,对首都圈（北纬38°～42°,东经113°～120°）1484年以来发生5．0级以上地震的时间序列资料进行了分析,结果表明,首都圈地区历史上5．0级以上地震存在12．9年的卓越周期,并且在今后50年内,发生5．0≤Ms〈6．0和6．0≤Ms〈7．0地震的概率分别是0．9907和0．6916,发生7．0≤Ms〈8．0地震的概率较低,只有0．2564发生Ms≥8．0地震的概率最低。仅为0．0718。     

Short-time period fluctuations in the total ozone

The Toronto spectrophotometer was used to take an extensive series of ozone measurements for the period September 1971 to April 1972. As a result of these measurements it was found that short-lived variations of ozone occur which sometimes amount to more than 0.1 cm. These ozone disturbances are advected because the same disturbance has been observed on the direct sun and the zenith sky at different times. Results which show the general nature of these disturbances will be presented. Also, a discussion will be given which stresses the need for an automated, mesoscale ozone-measuring network, capable of measuring in all weather conditions during all daytime hours.     

Synoptic-scale fluctuations of total ozone in the atmosphere

A model, based on ozone-concentration tendency equation, is developed to study synoptic ozone-column variations. The application is referred to a middle-latitude site and to an atmospheric layer extending from the surface up to about 35-km altitude. Photochemical effects at the considered location for synoptic time scales are considered negligible. The data input consists of umkehr ozone profile, total ozone (obtained by Brewer No. 067, located at Rome) and horizontal wind at various levels. Analysis of several cases indicates that meridional advection is the main factor responsible for the observed synoptic-scale ozone fluctuations.     

Low-latitude total ozone measurements in the Brazilian sector

Regular measurements of the atmospheric ozone in the Brazilian sector were started at Cachoeira Paulista (22.7°S, 45.0°W), and Natal (5.8°S, 35.2°W) in May 1974 and November 1978, respectively. The results of the total ozone measurements carried out at these two stations up to 1981 are presented in this communication and compared with other low-and mid-latitude stations. Although Natal is an equatorial station, it presents a prominent annual variation, and the average total ozone content is high compared to satellite measurements. During 1977–78, abnormally low values of total ozone were observed at Cachoeira Paulista. Some preliminary results about the QBO 9quasi-biennial oscillation) during 1974–81 are also presented.     

Inference of total ozone from photometric measurements of sky radiation

Summary Ground-based photometric measurements of spectral sky radiation have been made using a simple filter instrument. Sky radiation intensities measured in the solar vertical at =3200 Å and 3600 Å are compared to infer total ozone. A model of multiple scattering Rayleigh atmosphere serves as a primary reduction parameter. Spectral measurements of all-sky radiance distribution are used to study the effects of haze and clouds on the inference of total ozone. The brightness distribution of clear and overcast sky in ultraviolet is also described.     

Ozone related spectral measurements of total solar radiation

For four years measurements of solar radiation have been made with an instrument which observes the sky radiance in two spectral regions. The measured incident radiation is independent of the direction. Formulas are derived which allow to conclude the daily sun intensity in one region, knowing the measured intensity in the other region. The effect of ozone is noticeable in the difference between the measured and computed values in an ozone-absorbing region. The optical behaviour of the atmosphere can be defined by parameterization of extinction effects. From this one can conclude the intensity of any other spectral region and thus define selective influences of other absorbing gases like air-polluting constituents.     

High-level warmings and total ozone over a tropical region

The rocketsonde data obtained from the launchings made at Thumba (8°3215N, 76°5148E) during the winter period 1970–71, as already reported, have indicated that warmings of noticeable magnitude occurred at high levels (upper stratosphere and mesosphere) over this tropical station during the period mentioned. The mean monthly radiosonde temperatures of 50, 100 and 300 mb levels at Thumba (Trivandrum) and Delhi (28°35N, 77°12E) during the same period have also pointed out certain anomalies consistent with the warmings referred to above at Thumba. The radiosonde temperatures of the two stations, Thumba (Trivandrum) and Delhi, have now been examined, along with the values of total ozone, for the ten winter periods commencing from 1961–1962. The analysis has pointed out the possibility of high-level warmings also having occurred in the past over the Indian region during the winters of 1963–1964 and 1967–1968, which are also the periods when prominent warmings are definitely known to have occurred at higher latitudes. The behaviour of total ozone has been found to be different in the different years of the warmings. The features noticed have been presented and discussed.     

The summer maximum in total ozone over northwest Europe

Station records of ozone observations have been critically reviewed to investigate the reality of the reported maximum in total ozone over northwest Europe in July. The existence of a longitudinal excess of ozone over the British Isles is confirmed but strong horizontal gradients can be verified only over central Europe and there is no evidence for east-west gradients over the Atlantic. Ozone sounding data as well as total ozone daily variability make it most plausible that the ozone excess over northwest Europe is confined to the lower stratosphere. The isopleths in the region of strong ozone gradients are parallel to the mean flow at 100 mb as required by the calculated constraint on the magnitude of the mean flow advection. It is proposed that analyses of the ozone distribution over oceanic areas could be improved by extending ozone isopleths parallel to the mean lower stratospheric flow from land areas where the pattern is better defined.     

官厅水库及邻区地震活动的最大熵谱分析及其未来50年内强震危险性预测

利用最大熵谱分析与显著周期叠加建模的方法,首先对官厅水库及邻区的历史地震活动进行最大熵谱分析,然后利用所得到的显著周期进行建模,最后对未来50年内官厅水库及邻区的地震危险性进行了分析和预测。本文还用熵谱谱阵分析法,分析了地震活动周期的相对稳定性和时变性,并指出在地震预测中应注意对时变性的研究。