应用地理信息系统探测消化道癌症死亡率空间聚集性

根据研究区分村4种消化道癌症死亡监测数据和人口数据,描述癌症死亡率的空间分布规律,探测病例在空间上存在的聚集性热点,为进一步开展环境和人群监测提供参考依据。本研究采用基本的图层Voronoi处理技术以及全局空间自相关和空间热点探测的方法,通过绘制空间自相关系数图,描述不同空间尺度与消化道癌症死亡率自相关系数之间的关系。结合空间探测技术和癌症死亡率分布特点,确定空间探测的合理参数,应用地理信息系统,对消化道癌症在研究区的空间聚集热点进行探测。结果发现,研究区在4300m尺度存在有意义的显著空间正自相关,探测到3个消化道癌症高值聚集区,共58个村,每个聚集区平均人口在3万左右。3个聚集区癌症粗死亡率明显高于非聚集区和该县平均粗死亡率。空间热点的探测与分析,引入空间权重矩阵的概念,弥补传统统计学缺乏空间信息和空间关联的缺陷,为引起消化道癌症高发的危险因素探寻提供线索,是传统统计学的必要补充。     

Infant mortality in the Indian slums: case studies of Calcutta metropolis and Raipur city

This study was conducted to examine the levels of infant mortality, its causes and determinants, and its differentials in selected slums of Calcutta Metropolis and Raipur in India. Data were gathered through interview of 2142 mothers who had experienced a live birth and/or death of an infant within the year prior to the survey. The study found that although the infant mortality rate (IMR) in the slums was quite high, it was lower compared to rural India. The study?s finding underlines the importance of "urban residence" as a primary controlling factor of infant mortality. IMR was 1.5 times higher in the slums of Calcutta than in Raipur, indicating that infant death is far worse in the metropolis than in smaller cities. Although a number of individual-, household-, and slum-level factors played an explanatory role in infant mortality, differences in neighborhood environment contributed most significantly to the infant mortality differentials in the two slums. This study also found that mere literacy or low level of education is not an effective depressant of infant mortality.     

Some factors influencing variations in the rate of natural increase of population in western Maharashtra

This paper analyzes the impact of various factors on variations in the rate of natural increase of population in Western Maharashtra, India. By using district level data, coefficients of correlation have been calculated between the rate of natural increase, the birth rate and the death rate on the 1 hand and different factors affecting them on the other. The analysis shows that in Western Maharashtra the birth rate is high in response to the high death rate and the high infant mortality rate. It is also revealed that the rate of natural increase of the population declines with an increase in the proportion of working females as well as the proportion of educated males. All this signifies that the region under study is in the 2nd stage of the "demographic transition."     

Comparing spatial distributions of infant mortality over time: Investigating the urban environment of Baltimore,Maryland in 1880 and 1920

Infant mortality is a sensitive indicator of urban environmental conditions, and investigating the geography of such an indicator provides insight into variables affecting public health in urban North America in 1880 and 1920. Geographic information systems (GIS) and spatial analysis now provide a means by which to view past infant mortality distributions from a new perspective, one not available at the time. This study makes use of data collected from the 1880 and 1920 Vital Statistics Death Records for Baltimore, Maryland - mapping each infant death to his or her place of residence. Previous work with the 1880 data indicates an uneven distribution of infant deaths with some degree of spatial clustering. The current study takes these findings a step further through the use of the local spatial autocorrelation statistic, Gi*, to identify the locations of clusters in one or both years. The aim of the comparison is to determine whether the location of infant mortality clusters remained the same over time indicating persistent environmental, and possibly demographic, challenges in certain neighborhoods. The data indicated hotspots of infant mortality in both years with persistence in the Fells Point area of Baltimore. The significant clusters appeared in neighborhoods with large African American and/or immigrant populations in both years. The hotspots in the primarily African American neighborhood were only significant in 1880 despite presenting some intriguing questions about what caused such a change, particular when the population in that part of the city did not change. This work offers insights into the spatial distribution of infant mortality in the past and clues regarding which parts of the city need additional investigation to better understand their social and environmental characteristics.     

Premature mortality in the Republic of Ireland

Regional variations in the incidence of premature deaths between 1971 and 1981 arc examined by mapping standardised mortality ratios for deaths under the age of 65. Premature mortality is also examined with regards to the number of years of normal life lost by those who die prematurely, using a specially defined unfulfilled life index. Unfulfilled life and premature deaths arc found to have a higher incidence in the major urban areas and a lower incidence in western counties, although there are some interesting differences in their spatial distributions. Differences with regard to sex. age at death and cause of death are also examined.     

中国人口死亡率空间格局演变及其影响因素

人口死亡率是人口转型关键因素之一,而人口转型又关系着地区社会经济发展质量。以2000—2015年粗死亡率数据为基础,通过变异系数、趋势分析和空间自相关分析中国人口死亡率空间格局差异及演变态势,并结合偏最小二乘回归定量分析人口死亡率影响因素。结果发现：（1）中国人口死亡率大致呈西北、东北和东南低,中部及西南高态势,且各时段人口死亡率降低省份高于增长省份;（2）中国各省死亡率变异系数差异悬殊,且在空间趋势中东西方向呈现两端低中间高、南北方向由两端低中间高向北低南高转变;（3）人口死亡率全局空间集聚程度不断减弱,区域差异缩小,且局部空间上以高-高和低-低聚集为主;（4）人口老龄化是人口死亡率提升的主要推动因子,其次分别为工业废水排放总量、突发环境事件次数和气候条件等。人均生产总值对人口死亡率起主要抑制作用,其次分别为每千人口床位数、每十万人口大学平均在校生数、人均用水量和空气质量。农作物受灾面积合计对人口死亡率在不同年份作用力不一致。     

A DENDROCHRONOLOGICAL METHOD OF STUDYING TREE MORTALITY PATTERNS

This study examines the use of dendrochronological crossdating to determine the dates of death of dead-standing coniferous trees in subalpine forests in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. We cored approximately 800 dead-standing Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelm.) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa [Hook.] Nutt.) in two stands and classified them into decay classes. We quantitatively and visually crossdated samples from the dead-standing trees against master chronologies derived from live trees of each species in each stand. The outermost ring on crossdated samples served as an estimate of the year in which a tree died. Seventy percent of the dead-standing trees crossdated successfully. The crossdating technique clearly identified a period of massive mortality of Engelmann spruce attributable to a spruce beetle infestation in the 1940s. This procedure effectively distinguishes between continuous and episodic patterns of tree mortality and compares the relative mortality rates of these coniferous species. Dendrochronological dating of tree deaths is a useful way of providing historical contexts for interpreting tree mortality data derived from short-term monitoring of permanent plots.     

毛乌素沙地天然臭柏种群生命表分析

为了探讨毛乌素沙地天然臭柏种群动态,在图克臭柏保护区内,进行了样方调查,用WinDENDROTM年轮分析系统测定臭柏树盘的年龄。调查数据经均滑技术处理后,以种群生命表及生存分析理论为基础,编制臭柏种群特定时间生命表,分析臭柏的死亡率、消失率、平均生命期望、存活曲线及生存函数曲线。结果表明：臭柏种群有两个死亡高峰期,第一个高峰期为Ⅰ龄级,属幼龄期,死亡率达94%;第二个高峰期从Ⅵ龄级开始,死亡率在27%～47%之间。臭柏种群的消失率与死亡率的变化趋势基本一致。平均生命期望在Ⅰ龄级时为0.82 a,Ⅱ龄级达到最大,为4.67 a, 说明这个时期臭柏的生命活动最旺盛,之后开始逐渐下降,最后降低为零。经指数函数方程Nx=Noe-bx和幂函数方程Nx=Nox-b对臭柏种群存活曲线做相关性检验,结果表明,其存活曲线更趋近于DeeveyⅢ型,种群的生长趋势属增长种群,即臭柏种群幼龄期死亡率高,之后的死亡率降低,而且在一定的水平下趋于稳定。臭柏种群的生存率单调下降,积累死亡率单调上升。死亡密度函数曲线的凸点与平均生命期望曲线的凹点相对应,二者呈互补形式。危险率与死亡率的变化趋势相吻合。说明引入生命表中的4个生存函数能较好地显示种群的动态变化,生存分析理论和生命表相结合能更好、更真实地反映种群的生存状况。     

地震灾害死亡人口快速评估方法对比研究

中国是世界上地震活动最为频繁的国家之一,属于地震多发区。在收集分析国内外关于地震灾害死亡人口评估模型的基础上,选取10种模型以2000年以来中国典型地震灾害为案例验证其适用性。结果表明：① 对于5.7级（含）以下地震,10种模型的评估结果基本都在合理范围内,可采用各评估结果的区间值来支撑应急决策;5.7~6.6级（含）地震,10种评估方法得到的结果表现出不同程度的偏差,可采用多数评估结果指向的死亡人口数量级来支撑应急决策;6.6级以上地震,则只能采用有特定适用范围的基于结构易损性的评估结果来支撑应急决策,且也存在较大的不确定性。② 从地震灾害人员伤亡动态评估方法、地震—地质灾害死亡人口快速评估方法和快速评估软件系统方面进行了相关讨论。此研究可为地震灾害死亡人口快速评估模型的改进与发展提供借鉴。     

The socio-spatial dynamics of extreme urban heat events: The case of heat-related deaths in Philadelphia

Heat is the number one weather-related cause of mortality in the United States; typically punctuated by extreme heat waves. This study examines the relationship between the spatial distribution of vulnerable populations, satellite-detected urban heat island (UHI) and heat-related mortality distributions during a 1993 extreme heat event in Philadelphia, PA. Geostatistical methods are used to compare spatial distributions of vulnerability and to determine concentration of mortality within surface UHI intensity levels. The results suggest the spatial distribution of urban poor is congruent with heat-related death. Additionally, deaths are concentrated in higher order surface UHI intensity levels. The findings suggest that surface UHI measures and population in poverty are important variables in spatially measuring risk from extreme heat events. Coupling surface UHI measures with socioeconomic indicators of vulnerability may enable creation of risk models with improved spatial specificity to assist public health professionals. This approach is demonstrated by developing a linear regression model of potential risk in Philadelphia for the 1993 extreme heat event.     

Spatial spillover and the socio-ecological determinants of diabetes-related mortality across US counties

The spatial structure of diabetes-related mortality in US counties is evident from previous studies. However, it is not clear if spatial variation in diabetes-related mortality is associated with spatial variation in socioecological factors. We analyze the spatial spillover effect of changes in socioeconomic gradients (education, employment, household income), retail food environments, and access to health care, on diabetes-related mortality rates across the United States. Seven-year aggregates of multiple cause mortality data from the CDC WONDER compressed mortality database were merged with several sources of county-level data to examine mortality clusters, factors associated with the clusters, and spatial spillover effects in 3109 continuous US counties. The results suggest that high diabetes-related mortality cluster counties are located throughout the Southern Plains, Southeastern, and Appalachian regions. Lower socioeconomic status, a high density of fast food restaurants, a lack of access to grocery stores, a high proportion of Blacks, and low physical activity characterize high diabetes-related mortality rates clusters. The impacts from improvements in socioeconomic gradients and the retail food environment in neighboring counties spill over, and reduce the diabetes-related mortality rate in a particular county. This result implies that improvements in socioeconomic status and access to healthy food would significantly reduce diabetes-related mortality rates in contiguous US counties.     

Atmospheric Circulation Patterns Associated with Mortality Changes During the Transitional Seasons

Although much research has been done linking meteorological variables individually with various aspects of human health, few studies have considered the collective impact of weather. This study examines the relationship among ten synoptic-scale weather patterns and daily cause-specific human mortality rates for metropolitan areas in the central United States during the 1978 to 1998 autumn and spring seasons. The results show that distinctive changes in mortality rates are often associated with one or two of the more moderate synoptic types, displaying notable spatial and temporal variability. The occurrence of the Eastern Zonal (EZ) pattern during spring and the East Coast Trough (ECT) pattern during autumn seems to invoke the most significant increased mortality response across all causes of death and metropolitan statistical areas. For the EZ and ECT types, the largest adverse response occurs for locations influenced by cold, anticyclonic situations and atmospheric stability.     

Late-Stage Breast Cancer Diagnosis and Health Care Access in Illinois∗

The variations of breast cancer mortality rates from place to place reflect both underlying differences in breast cancer prevalence and differences in diagnosis and treatment that affect the risk of death. This article examines the role of access to health care in explaining the variation of late-stage diagnosis of breast cancer. We use cancer registry data for the state of Illinois by zip code to investigate spatial variation in late diagnosis. Geographic information systems and spatial analysis methods are used to create detailed measures of spatial access to health care such as convenience of visiting primary care physicians and travel time from the nearest mammography facility. The effects of spatial access, in combination with the influences of socioeconomic factors, on late-stage breast cancer diagnosis are assessed using statistical methods. The results suggest that for breast cancer, poor geographical access to primary health care significantly increases the risk of late diagnosis for persons living outside the city of Chicago. Disadvantaged population groups including those with low income and racial and ethnic minorities tend to experience high rates of late diagnosis. In Illinois, poor spatial access to primary health care is more strongly associated with late diagnosis than is spatial access to mammography. This suggests the importance of primary care physicians as gatekeepers in early breast cancer detection.     

Analysis of survival curves in seasonally mated pastoral goat herds in northern Kenya using logistic regression techniques

In order to assess the effect of controlled seasonal breeding on survival performance of pastoral goat flocks, a systematic breeding programme was initiated in a herd of small East African goats over a period of 4 years in Isiolo District, northern Kenya. This papers presents an analysis of survival rates observed in six different mating seasons. The statistical analysis is based on modelling hazard functions parametrically over time using logistic regression and polynomial spline functions. With respect to kid survival, litter size and parity of dam failed to reach statistical significance after adjustment was made for the effects of birth weight and milk yield until weaning. Highly significant interactions were found between time factors and the effect of mating season, indicating non-proportionality of death risks across mating seasons. Confining mating to the period between June and November is likely to confer a distinctive advantage in terms of young livestock survival. In contrast, joining does during the short dry season leads to kid mortality rates of about 50%, and should therefore be avoided. Doe survival was evaluated in terms of mating season, production cycle, parity, and reproductive status. The ranking of mating season groups with respect to doe survival was similar to that observed in kids, although the differences were much smaller and non-significant. The lowest annual mortality rate was observed when breeding females were mated during the long dry season. It is concluded that confining breeding to the long dry season can be an effective management intervention to reduce mortality rates in pastoral goat flocks.     

Demographic transition in Sri Lanka: a spatial perspective

Demographic transition theory involves a lagging fertility transition induced by a leading mortality transition. This article focuses on the linkage between the mortality and fertility transitions in Sri Lanka; it discusses the measurement of areal fertility, demonstrates the use of a measure not commonly used in population geography, and shows areal association between past mortality and recent fertility. The Coale or Princeton fertility indices allow a reasonably good view of structural and behavioral aspects of fertility; the Coale indices examine the contribution of structure to total fertility and the contribution of marital fertility. Although recent fertility decline has been less rapid than the post-war mortality decline, Sri Lanka's crude birth rate in 1975 was the 5th lowest in Asia. Sri Lanka experienced very high crude death rates in 1930, and quite low rates in 1950 and in subsequent years. This demonstrates an association between historic mortality and recent fertility, and that association can be linked deductively to demographic transition theory. In 1930, malaria was endemic throughout the Dry Zone of Sri Lanka, and hyperendemic in several districts. The Spearman rank correlation coefficients reveal the strongest relationship between malaria and nuptiality; this lends evidence to the notion that structural influences on fertility--such as delayed marriage--are more important than influences on marital fertility--such as coital frequency. The evidence suggests that mortalily decline in Sri Lanka led to an increase in fertility in those areas where malaria had been concentrated. This suggests the possibility that measures constituting malaria control or eradication also stimulate increased fertility; therefore, anti-malarial programs must be integrated with family planning.     

河南省肺癌空间分布格局及环境因素影响

肺癌是最常见的恶性肿瘤之一,也是主要的肿瘤死因,河南省肺癌发病率和死亡率常年居恶性肿瘤首位,研究肺癌的空间分布格局及其与环境因子的关系对肺癌的相关防控工作意义重大。本文以2016—2018年河南省肺癌发病数据为研究对象,使用空间自相关分析方法研究河南省肺癌的空间分布格局,基于地理探测器量化各个环境因子及其两两交互作用对肺癌发病率的解释力。结果表明：空间上肺癌具有明显的集聚特征,高发区集中分布于豫中、豫东和豫南的平原和盆地地区。在所选的12种环境因子中,PM_2.5浓度、O₃浓度、年均风速、采矿业从业人员占比、人均GDP具有更高的决定力,人均GDP和医护人员占比则对多种要素的决定力均具有明显的非线性增强的作用。研究结果可以为河南省肺癌发病机理研究和相关防治工作提供科学支撑。     

中国塔吉克族人口发展初探

本文根据全国历来四次人口普查资料，对我国塔吉克族人口形热进行了简要的论述。文中阐述了塔吉克族人口规模的发展、变化以及人口再生产类型，并简述了相关的社会、经济、文化等方面的问题。     

On the Components of Indigenous Population Change

The 2001 census count of Indigenous Australians produced an intercensal change in numbers that cannot be explained by demographic processes alone. Using census and vital registration data, this paper unravels the components of such change and provides new insight into Indigenous population dynamics. In particular, it establishes the first estimates of proximate determinants of fertility, and extends mortality analysis by examining the components of low Indigenous life expectancy. Results show that demographic factors account for only 69 per cent of population change. Of these components, national Indigenous fertility is found to be below replacement level, while lack of convergence between Indigenous and non-Indigenous mortality remains. As Indigenous socio-economic circumstances are spatially diverse, the paper also explores the geography of demographic processes using data for 36 ATSIC regions and capital city/balance of State classifications. This reveals continued high fertility across parts of north Australia and an indication that mortality levels are associated with degree of urban residence.     

Is Russia's demographic situation improving?

"Since the Russian economy recently has shown sings of stabilization, there now is evidence that demographic trends are beginning to improve somewhat. Although the population declined by 164,200, to 148.1 million at the beginning of 1996, the release of new statistical compendia by the Russian statistical agency (Goskomstat Rosii) in 1995 and early 1996 makes it possible to identify several positive trends.... Life expectancy increased for the first time since 1985. The infant mortality rate declined for the second year in a row. The crude death rate declined for the first time in a decade. The birth rate remained at about the same level for the third consecutive year. The rate of natural increase (births minus deaths), although still negative, recorded a moderate increase."     

Adult Mortality and Natural Resource Use in Rural South Africa: Evidence From the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance Site

There is little empirical evidence on the association between household experience with HIV/AIDS and shifts in the use of natural resources in developing countries, where residents of rural regions remain highly dependent on often-declining local supplies of natural resources. This study examines household strategies with regard to fuelwood and water among impoverished rural South African households having experienced a recent adult mortality and those without such mortality experience. Quantitative survey data reveal higher levels of natural resource dependence among mortality-affected households, as well as differences in collection strategies. Qualitative interview data provide insight into subtle and complex adjustments at the household level, revealing that impacts vary by the role of the deceased within the household economy. Resource management and public health implications are explored.