基于WRF和CFD软件结合的风能资源数值模拟试验研究

运用中尺度数值模式WRF与法国CFD软件MeteodynwT相结合的方法（WRF／WT）,进行了广东省海陵岛地区的水平分辨率100m×100m的风能资源数值模拟试验,采用海陵岛上7座测风塔观测资料对WRF／WT模式的模拟风场进行误差检验,并与WRF／WAsP模式系统对单点风能参数模拟误差进行对比,研究WRF／WT模式系统在风电场微观选址和分散式风电开发利用中应用的可行性。结果表明：中尺度模式与CFD软件结合的数值模拟方法对区域风能资源分布趋势的模拟比单纯应用CFD软件更准确;WRF／WT模式系统应用于复杂地形风能资源数值模拟评估是可行的,其对区域风能资源参数分布模拟的准确率与WRF／WAsP对2km范围内风能资源参数模拟的准确率相当;WRF／WT模式系统在风速频率分布不满足Weibull分布的情况下和陡峭地形条件下有较好的模拟效果,相对WRF／wAsP有明显优势。今后需进一步研究中尺度模式与CFD软件的衔接方法,以及对中尺度模式模拟结果的误差订正。     

变性再发展热带气旋Yaji(2006)的数值模拟研究

利用中尺度模式WRF对2006年14号热带气旋Yaji的变性过程进行了双重嵌套模拟。结果表明,采用高分辨率的TRMM/TMI卫星反演SST资料,在第一重区域(网格距为15km)采用WSM3微物理方案和Betts-Miller对流参数化方案,在第二重移动嵌套区域(网格距为5km)采用Lin微物理方案,不采用对流参数化方案,模式能较好地模拟Yaji的路径和变性前后的强度演变,其中模拟的路径平均误差为64km,强度平均误差为2.5hPa,模拟的风场分布与Quickscat卫星反演的风场分布也较为吻合。利用模拟资料还研究了Yaji变性过程中的非对称流特征。     

On momentum flux and velocity spectra over waves

Data from a research tower in Lake Ontario are used to study the validity of Monin--Obukhov scaling in the marine atmospheric boundary layer under various wave conditions. It is found that over pure wind seas, the velocity spectra and cospectra follow established universal scaling laws. However, in the presence of swells outrunning weak winds, velocity spectra and cospectra no longer satisfy universal spectral shapes. Here, Monin–Obukhov similarity theory, and the classical logarithmic boundary layers, are no longer valid. It is further shown that, in the presence of such swells, the momentum flux can be significantly modified in comparison to pure wind sea values. The implications of these findings for bulk flux estimations and on the inertial dissipation method for calculating fluxes are discussed.     

Hurricane Wind Power Spectra, Cospectra, and Integral Length Scales

Atmospheric turbulence is an important factor in the modelling of wind forces on structures and the losses they produce in extreme wind events. However, while turbulence in non-hurricane winds has been thoroughly researched, turbulence in tropical cyclones and hurricanes that affect the Gulf and Atlantic coasts has only recently been the object of systematic study. In this paper, Florida Coastal Monitoring Program surface wind measurements over the sea surface and open flat terrain are used to estimate tropical cyclone and hurricane wind spectra and cospectra as well as integral length scales. From the analyses of wind speeds obtained from five towers in four hurricanes it can be concluded with high confidence that the turbulent energy at lower frequencies is considerably higher in hurricane than in non-hurricane winds. Estimates of turbulence spectra, cospectra, and integral turbulence scales presented can be used for the development in experimental facilities of hurricane wind flows and the forces they induce on structures.     

复杂下垫面风电场风速数值模拟及误差特征

利用WRF模式分别对沿海及山地条件下风电场风速进行高分辨数值模拟,并对其误差特征进行分析,结果表明:1)WRF模式对复杂地形条件下的风速模拟性能良好,模拟值较好地体现天气尺度的周期变化;2)沿海及山地条件下模拟与观测的误差特征各不相同。模式静态数据未能显现沿海的小岛,并且低估了山地测风塔所在的海拔,导致沿海平均模拟风速偏大,山地平均模拟风速偏小;3)分析不同风向的归一化均方根误差,沿海陆风情况下,下垫面相对复杂,误差明显增大;沿海海风情况下,下垫面均一,误差明显减小;4)仅作单个风电场周边数百平方千米的模拟,采用一台12核的服务器进行WRF模式的并行计算可满足48 h短期预测的时效性。仅仅提高模拟的网格分辨率,并不一定能提升模拟的准确性。     

On the analysis of wind wave-induced disturbances in the atmospheric turbulent surface layer

Simultaneous measurements of wind velocity, air humidity and sea surface wave-elevation fluctuations obtained on a platform in the open Caspian Sea are analyzed.It is shown that wave noises exist in the spectra and cospectra of the lower part of the atmospheric boundary layer, not only for the frequency of the main energy transporting component of the sea waves, but also in other parts of the spectra, at both lower and higher frequencies. The high frequencies are noncoherent with the sea waves and could be considered as measurement errors due to the existence of the waves. A method of elimination of the coherent wave noises from the spectra and cospectra is suggested and the effectiveness of its application is demonstrated.The essential difference between cases of developing and decaying wind waves is demonstrated.     

基于ELM的风电场短期风速订正技术研究

风速预测是风电场风功率预测的基础,其准确度严重影响着风电场的运行效率。为了提高短期风速预测的准确性,本研究采用了WRF中尺度数值模式,对我国东部沿海某风电场的风速进行预报。在此基础上,利用极限学习机算法(ELM)对WRF模式预报的风速进一步订正。实验结果表明,WRF模式对风速、风向等气象要素有着较好的回报效果,利用ELM算法对WRF模式预报风速进行订正后,预报风速的误差进一步减小,相对均方根误差和相对平均绝对误差降低了20%～30%。与其他的智能算法(BP神经网络、SVM算法)对比分析后得出,ELM算法对WRF模式预报风速具有较好的订正效果,能够有效提高风速预报准确率。     

THE IMPACT OF HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION ON THE INTENSITY AND MICROSTRUCTURE OF SUPER TYPHOON USAGI

Typhoon Usagi (1319) was simulated by using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting numerical model (WRF) with different horizontal resolution to understand the impact of horizontal resolution on the intensity and characteristics of typhoon’s microstructures (including dynamic and microphysical structure). The simulated results show that the improvement of horizontal resolution from 5 km to 1 km has little impact on the track which is comparable to real results, but has a significant impact on the intensity and microstructures, and especially, the impact on wind speed at 10 m height, the vertical movement and precipitation intensity is the greatest. When the resolution is increased to 1 km, the intensity and characteristics of typhoon’s microstructures can be simulated better. In lower resolution simulations, some structural characteristics, including more asymmetrical and more outward tilted eyewall, and less water vapor flux on sea surface, work together to weaken typhoon intensity.     

城市边界层动量和保守物通量的特征

利用2005年1-5月北京325 m气象塔47 m高度的湍流脉动资料(风速、温度、水汽和CO2),对城市边界层冠层内的湍流运动统计特征(相似关系、高阶矩、通量和谱等)进行了分析。其中,谱分析的结果表明,城市冠层内稳定度对湍流谱的影响比较小,而水平风速的影响比较大。因此,速度和温度的相似关系在夜间稳定条件下也成立。但是,由于水汽和CO2还受其他因素的影响,相似关系并不适用。更高阶矩的研究表明它们的陡峭度与偏斜度之间存在平方关系。而水汽和CO2之间也存在差异,它们的通量日变化特征明显不同,CO2通量的日变化更能体现人类活动的影响。同时,感热通量、潜热通量和CO2通量存在季节变化,尤其是潜热通量季节差异很大。     

新疆风区下垫面动力学粗糙度估测值与模式定义值的对比

按风向风速标准差法估算了新疆风能资源详查区17座测风塔一定范围内的动力学粗糙度,并与期间利用的3 km和1 km分辨率的数值模式中的动力学粗糙度理论定义值进行了对比。结果表明:除了采用的landuse基数据在一些区域的错误判识而导致本研究的估测值与中、小尺度模式中的动力学粗糙度理论定义值有较大差别外,大多数比较接近,今后有必要对这些区域的landuse的分类进行客观订正;夏季强风区的动力学粗糙度估测值普遍小于中尺度模式的理论定义值;对于主、次风向上动力学粗糙度值极不均匀区域,风向与风速标准差估算法需结合使用;本研究估算的动力学粗糙度是在中性层结条件下进行的,对于中性层结条件较少发生的区域,该动力学粗糙度估算值的普适性将受到限制。     

Spectra of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> and Water Vapour in the Marine Atmospheric Surface Layer

Spectra of CO₂ and water vapour fluctuations from measurements made in the marine atmospheric surface layer have been analyzed. A normalization of spectra based on Monin–Obukhov similarity theory, originally developed for wind speed and temperature, has been successfully extended also to CO₂ and humidity spectra. The normalized CO₂ spectra were observed to have somewhat larger contributions from low frequencies compared to humidity spectra during unstable stratification. However, overall, the CO₂ and humidity spectra showed good agreement as did the cospectra of vertical velocity with water vapour and CO₂ respectively. During stable stratification the spectra and cospectra displayed a well-defined spectral gap separating the mesoscale and small-scale turbulent fluctuations. Two-dimensional turbulence was suggested as a possible source for the mesoscale fluctuations, which in combination with wave activity in the vertical wind is likely to explain the increase in the cospectral energy for the corresponding frequency range. Prior to the analysis the turbulence time series of the density measurements were converted to time series of mixing ratios relative to dry air. Some differences were observed when the spectra based on the original density measurements were compared to the spectra based on the mixing ratio time series. It is thus recommended to always convert the density time series to mixing ratio before performing spectral analysis.     

Turbulence spectra of CO2, water vapor,temperature and wind velocity fluctuations over a crop surface

A prototype rapid-response CO₂ sensor was used in conjunction with a Lyman-alpha hygrometer, fine-wire thermocouples and a three-dimensional drag anemometer to measure CO₂, humidity, temperature and wind velocity fluctuations. Measurements were made over a soybean crop grown on relatively flat terrain near Mead, Nebraska.Temperature, humidity and CO₂ spectra measured under near neutral conditions were most similar in shape while longitudinal velocity (U) spectra appeared to be somewhat broader. Peaks occurred around f = 0.02 to 0.06 (where f is the non-dimensional frequency) in all spectra except for vertical velocity which had a peak near f = 0.5. As thermal stability changed from neutral to stable, spectra exhibited lower peaks, were narrower in shape and were shifted towards higher frequencies. Opposite behavior was observed with increasing instability.Cospectra for momentum, heat, water vapor and CO₂ measured during neutral conditions had similar peak frequencies (near f = 0.15). Among the cospectra studied, CO₂ and water vapor cospectra had the greatest similarity in shape.Published as Paper No. 7481, Journal Series, Nebraska Agricultural Experiment Station. The work reported here was conducted under Nebraska Agricultural Experiment Station Project 27-003 and Regional Research Project 11-33.Post-doctoral Research Associate and Professor, respectively, Center for Agricultural Meteorology and Climatology, Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE 68583-0728.     

Atmosphere–Surface Fluxes of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> using Spectral Techniques

Different flux estimation techniques are compared here in order to evaluate air–sea exchange measurement methods used on moving platforms. Techniques using power spectra and cospectra to estimate fluxes are presented and applied to measurements of wind speed and sensible heat, latent heat and CO₂ fluxes. Momentum and scalar fluxes are calculated from the dissipation technique utilizing the inertial subrange of the power spectra and from estimation of the cospectral amplitude, and both flux estimates are compared to covariance derived fluxes. It is shown how even data having a poor signal-to-noise ratio can be used for flux estimations.     

Spectra and Cospectra of Turbulence in an Internal Boundary Layer over a Heterogeneously Irrigated Cotton Field

During the Energy Balance Experiment, patch-to-patch irrigation generated gradients in soil moisture in a north-south oriented cotton field. An internal boundary layer (IBL) developed as a result of strong horizontal advection from relatively dry upstream patches to relatively wet downstream patches associated with the prevailing northerly winds. This generated large eddies of multiple sizes, which had significant influences on the structure of turbulence in the IBL. The power spectra and cospectra of wind speed, temperature, humidity, and energy fluxes measured at two heights within the IBL are presented and used to investigate the influence of the IBL on surface layer turbulence. The spectra and cospectra were greatly enhanced by external disturbances at low frequencies. The peak frequencies of these disturbances did not change with height. The spectra and cospectra typically converged and were parallel to the Kansas spectrum at high frequencies (in the inertial subrange). A clear gap in the spectra of horizontal wind velocity existed at intermediate frequencies when the surface layer was stable. The results indicate that large eddies that originated in the upstream convective boundary layer had considerable impacts on the spectra and cospectra of surface layer turbulence. The influence of these large eddies was greater (1) when the IBL was well-developed in the near surface layer than when the IBL did not exist, (2) at higher levels than at lower levels, and (3) when the atmospheric surface layer (ASL) was unstable than when the ASL was stable. The length scales of these large eddies were consistent with the dominant scales of surface heterogeneity at the experiment site.     

Observations and Modelling of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer Over Sea-Ice in a Svalbard Fjord

Sonic anemometer and profile mast measurements made in Wahlenbergfjorden, Svalbard Arctic archipelago, in May 2006 and April 2007 were employed to study the atmospheric boundary layer over sea-ice. The turbulent surface fluxes of momentum and sensible heat were calculated using eddy correlation and gradient methods. The results showed that the literature-based universal functions underestimated turbulent mixing in strongly stable conditions. The validity of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory was questionable for cross-fjord flow directions and in the presence of mesoscale variability or topographic effects. The aerodynamic roughness length showed a dependence on the wind direction. The mean roughness length for along-fjord wind directions was (2.4 ± 2.6) × 10⁻⁴ m, whereas that for cross-fjord directions was (5.4 ± 2.8) × 10⁻³ m. The thermal stratification and turbulent fluxes were affected by the synoptic situation with large differences between the 2 years. Channelling effects and drainage flows occurred especially during a weak large-scale flow. The study periods were simulated applying the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with 1-km horizontal resolution in the finest domain. The results for the 2-m air temperature and friction velocity were good, but the model failed to reproduce the spatial variability in wind direction between measurement sites 3 km apart. The model suggested that wind shear above the stable boundary layer provided a non-local source for the turbulence observed.     

Multiseason evaluation of the MM5, COAMPS and WRF over southeast United States

Three models, MM5, COAMPS, and WRF, have been applied for the warm season in 2003 and the cool season in 2003?C2004 to evaluate their performances. All models run over the same domain area covering the north Gulf Mexico and southeastern United States (US) region with the same spatial resolution of 27?km. It was found that the temporal variations of the mean error distribution and strength at 24 and 36?h were rather weak for surface temperature, sea level pressure, and surface wind speed for all models. A warm bias in surface temperature forecasts dominated over land during the warm season, whereas a cool bias existed during the cool season. The MM5 and WRF produced negative biases of sea level pressure during the warm season and positive biases during the cool season while the COAMPS yielded a similar distribution of sea level pressure biases during both seasons. During both seasons, similar surface wind speed biases produced by each model included a high wind speed forecast over most areas by MM5 while the COAMPS and WRF yielded weak surface winds over the western Plains and stronger surface winds over the eastern Plains. Root-mean-squared errors revealed that the forecast of surface temperature, sea level pressure, and surface wind speed were degraded with the increase of forecast time. For rainfall evaluation, it was found that the MM5 underpredicted seasonal precipitation while the COAMPS and WRF overpredicted. The bias scores revealed that the MM5 yielded an underprediction of the coverage of precipitation areas, especially for heavier rainfall events. The MM5 presented the lower threat score at lighter rainfall events compared to the COAMPS and WRF. For moderate and heavier thresholds, all models lacked forecast accuracy. The WRF accuracy in predicting precipitation was heavily dependent upon the performance of the selected cumulus parameterization scheme. Use of the Grell?CDevenyi and Bette?CMiller?CJanjic schemes helps suppress precipitation overprediction.     

基于PCA RBF的风电场短期风速订正方法研究

风电功率预测中最重要的因子是风速,准确的风速预测是风电功率预测的前提和基础。为了提高短期风速预测的准确性,本研究采用WRF模式,对我国上海崇明吕四风电场的风速进行预报。在此基础上,利用PCA-RBF算法结合WRF模式预报风向、气温、气压等气象要素对预报风速进一步订正。实验结果表明,利用PCA-RBF算法对WRF模式预报风速进行订正后,预报风速的误差进一步减小,相对均方根误差降低20%~30%,相对平均绝对误差降低15%~20%。与其他智能算法(BP算法、LSSVM算法)对比分析后得出,PCA-RBF算法对WRF模式预报风速具有较好的订正效果,能够有效提高风速预报准确率。     

Analysis of Wind Power Assessment Based on the WRF Model

Assessing wind energy is a key step in selecting a site for a wind farm. The accuracy of the assessment is essential for the future operation of the wind farm. There are two main methods for assessing wind power： one is based on observational data and the other relies on mesoscale numerical weather prediction（NWP）. In this study, the wind power of the Liaoning coastal wind farm was evaluated using observations from an anemometer tower and simulations by the Weather Research and Forecasting（WRF） model, to see whether the WRF model can produce a valid assessment of the wind power and whether the downscaling process can provide a better evaluation. The paper presents long-term wind data analysis in terms of annual, seasonal, and diurnal variations at the wind farm, which is located on the east coast of Liaoning Province. The results showed that, in spring and summer, the wind speed, wind direction, wind power density, and other main indicators were consistent between the two methods. However, the values of these parameters from the WRF model were significantly higher than the observations from the anemometer tower. Therefore, the causes of the differences between the two methods were further analyzed. There was much more deviation in the original material, National Centers for Environmental Prediction（NCEP） final（FNL） Operational Global Analysis data, in autumn and winter than in spring and summer. As the region is vulnerable to cold-air outbreaks and windy weather in autumn and winter, and the model usually forecasted stronger high or low systems with a longer duration, the predicted wind speed from the WRF model was too large.     

WRF/CALMET/BP预报系统对内陆山区风电场的一次滚动预报检验北大核心

利用以中尺度数值模式WRF/CALMET作为风电场预报系统的动力模块,及BP神经网络法(BP-ANN)作为风电场预报系统的统计订正方法,对重庆市齐跃山风电场进行了一次时间分辨率为5 min的24 h风速、风功率的滚动预报试验,探讨了适用于中国典型内陆山区的风电场预报系统。结果显示:以WRF/CALMET/BP组成的动力—统计预报系统能够较好地模拟出内陆山区的风场特征,系统对正午至傍晚时段的风速预报准确率较高。WRF/CALMET动力模式对于风速中心振幅的模拟能力较好,经过BP神经网络订正后,模拟结果会趋于均值。不同风速段中,模式对低风速段(3~8 m·s^(-1))的预报效果较好,BP神经网络对中风速段(8~14 m·s^(-1))预报结果的订正效果最明显。     

中尺度模式风电场风速短期预报能力研究

本文利用内蒙古乌兰察布风电场2009 年观测记录和WRF 数值模式预报,研究了中尺度数值天气模式对风电场风速的短期预报能力。研究表明:不同数值模式参数化方案的预报能力没有实质性的区别,对于不同时效的风场预报各种方案的预报能力不尽相同。在天气演变较为剧烈时,模式预报技巧相对较差。风电场周边主要天气系统对预报准确度有很大影响。就乌兰察布风电场而言,WRF 模式2009 年日平均预报相对误差仅为11.78%,且误差大于20%的日数占研究总天数不超过15%,具有较高的预报技巧。当蒙古气旋、东北气旋剧烈发展或风速迅速减小时风速的预报误差较大。