Prediction of Earth orientation parameters by artificial neural networks

 Earth orientation parameters (EOPs) [polar motion and length of day (LOD), or UT1–UTC] were predicted by artificial neural networks. EOP series from various sources, e.g. the C04 series from the International Earth Rotation Service and the re-analysis optical astrometry series based on the HIPPARCOS frame, served for training the neural network for both short-term and long-term predictions. At first, all effects which can be described by functional models, e.g. effects of the solid Earth tides and the ocean tides or seasonal atmospheric variations of the EOPs, were removed. Only the differences between the modeled and the observed EOPs, i.e. the quasi-periodic and irregular variations, were used for training and prediction. The Stuttgart neural network simulator, which is a very powerful software tool developed at the University of Stuttgart, was applied to construct and to validate different types of neural networks in order to find the optimal topology of the net, the most economical learning algorithm and the best procedure to feed the net with data patterns. The results of the prediction were analyzed and compared with those obtained by other methods. The accuracy of the prediction is equal to or even better than that by other prediction methods. Received: 6 February 2001 / Accepted: 23 October 2001     

IGS Earth Rotation Parameters

Since its official start in January 1994, the International GPS Service (IGS) has been distributing, as part of its product combination, two distinct Earth rotation parameter (ERP) series: the IGS Rapid series and the IGS Final series. Initially, the IGS Rapid ERP values were interpolations of the International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) Bulletin A, whereas the IGS Final ERP series was based on the IERS Bulletin B. Since June 1996, the IGS has been generating its own Final ERP series consistent with the IGS combined orbit products and based on weighted means of individual IGS analysis center (AC) solutions. At first, only the polar motion (PM) coordinates and their rates were combined. Length of Day (LOD) and Universal Time (UT) solutions, also based on separate weighted mean combinations, followed in March 1997. Currently, the IGS Rapid and Final combinations are produced and made available within 17 hours and 11 days, respectively, after the last observation. Both IGS and the best AC series are consistent and precise at the 0.1-milliarcsecond (mas) level for PM and at about 30 μs for LOD. Biases in some AC solutions may exceed these consistency levels. Comparisons of both IGS ERP series with external standards, such as the IERS multitechnique Bulletins and atmospheric angular momentum series, confirm the estimated precisions. ? 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

一种附加边界约束和内约束的多中心ERP融合模型

不同技术、不同分析中心得到的地球自转参数（Earth rotation parameters,ERP）往往是不同的,为提供统一的ERP供用户使用,常需对ERP进行融合处理。提出了一种基于多分析中心ERP结果的附加边界约束和内约束融合模型,即先通过参数变换把各分析中心结果转换到相同时刻,考虑到相邻观测时段边界点处ERP应当一致这一特点,施加边界约束,然后对各分析中心的长期解施加转换参数内约束,最后得到多分析中心ERP的融合解。采用从2005—2011年共6 a的7个全球卫星导航系统（Global Navigation Satellite System,GNSS）分析中心的结果进行融合处理,并与IERS C04（International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems ServiceCombined 04）结果进行比较。结果表明,所提出的融合方法计算结果的精度有明显改善。     

顾及测量方式的地球自转参数差异性分析

随着甚长基线干涉测量(VLBI)、卫星激光测距(SLR)、激光测月(LLR)、全球卫星导航系统(GNSS)、多里斯系统(DORIS)等多种空间大地测量手段的使用,地球自转参数(ERP)的测量精度不断提高,为航天器导航、深空探测等诸多领域提供了高精度的国际天球参考系(ICRS)和国际地表参考系统(ITRS)之间的转换参数. 以国际地球自转与参考系服务发布的C04序列为基础序列,选取500天ERP序列,分析不同测量手段得到的ERP数据的误差分布情况,为研究利用不同数据之间的一致性进行精度检核的可行性及精度水平提供数据基础,同时也为ERP预报提供更多的数据选择.      

地球自转参数的LS+AR超短期预报方法

地球自转参数（ERP）是卫星精密定轨中联系天球坐标系与地球坐标系的必要参数,是国际GNSS服务组织（IGS）和国际GNSS监测评估系统（iGMAS）分析中心的重要产品。为了提高中国测绘科学研究院分析中心（CGS）的线性模型预报精度,本文研究了最小二乘（LS）和自回归模型（AR）组合的超短期预报最优方法;通过不同周期数据确定最佳预报时长,利用LS+AR模型进行超短期预报,并通过IGS和iGMAS与线性模型产品对比。结果表明：利用8 d（时段）数据进行超短期预报最优;LS+AR模型预报精度明显优于LS模型;LS+AR的超短期预报方法优于分析中心的线性预报方法;EOP的PMX和PMY分量利用时段数据预报、LOD利用天数据预报精度更高。本文超短期预报方法能够提高ERP预报精度,为IGS或iGMAS分析中心的ERP预报提供了一定的参考意义。     

Analysis of the first year of Earth rotation parameters with a sub-daily resolution gained at the CODE processing center of the IGS

 The solutions of the CODE Analysis Center submitted to the IGS, the International Global Position System (GPS) Service for Geodynamics, are based on three days of observation of about 80–100 stations of the IGS network. The Earth rotation parameters (ERPs) are assumed to vary linearly over the three days with respect to an a priori model. Continuity at the day boundaries as well as the continuity of the first derivatives are enforced by constraints. Since early April 1995 CODE has calculated a new ERP series with an increased time resolution of 2 hours. Again continuity is enforced at the 2-hours-interval boundaries. The analysis method is described, particularly how to deal with retrograde diurnal terms in the ERP series which may not be estimated with satellite geodetic methods. The results obtained from the first year of data covered by the time series (time interval from 4 April 1995 to 30 June 1996) are also discussed. The series is relatively homogeneous in the sense of the used orbit model and the a priori model for the ERPs. The largest source of excitation at daily and sub-daily periods is likely to be the effect of the ocean tides. There is good agreement between the present results and Topex/Poseidon ocean tide models, as well as with models based on Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) and Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) data. Non-oceanic periodic variations are also observed in the series. Their origin is most probably a consequence of the GPS solution strategy; other possible sources are the atmospheric tides. Received: 13 July 1999 / Accepted: 21 March 2000     

基于我国全球连续监测与评估系统的ERP测定的精度分析

利用GPS观测资料解算地球自转参数,用全球均匀分布的22个IGS跟踪站（IGS05）的连续观测资料估计地球自转参数（ERP）,并与IERSC04（UTC0时）的结果相比较,二者相差很小,均在IERS的ERP估计精度范围之内。基于即将建成的COMPASS全球连续监测与评估系统跟踪站,选择其网的8个IGS跟踪站的资料进行了解算并进行了分析和比对。     

Combination procedure for length-of-day time series according to the noise frequency behavior

 Length-of-day (LOD) estimates from seven Global Positioning System (GPS) and three satellite laser ranging (SLR) analysis centers were combined into an even-spaced time series for a 27-month period (1996–1998). This time series was compared to the multi-technique Earth-orientation-parameter (EOP) combined solution (C04) derived at the Central Bureau of the International Earth Rotation Service (IERS/CB). Due to inhomogeneities in the different series derived from the various techniques (time, length, quality, and spatial resolution), the concept of a combined solution is justified. The noise behavior in LOD for different techniques varies with frequency; the data series were divided into frequency windows after removing both biases and trends. Different weight factors were assigned in each window, discriminating by technique, and produced one-technique combined solutions. Finally, these one-technique combined solutions were combined to obtain the final multi-technique solution. The LOD combined time series obtained by the present method based on the frequency windows combined series (FWCS) is very close to the IERS C04 solution. It could be useful to generate a new LOD reference time series to be used in the study of high-frequency variations of Earth rotation. Received: 28 March 2000 / Accepted: 15 February 2001     

Achievements of the Earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign

Precise transformations between the international celestial and terrestrial reference frames are needed for many advanced geodetic and astronomical tasks including positioning and navigation on Earth and in space. To perform this transformation at the time of observation, that is for real-time applications, accurate predictions of the Earth orientation parameters (EOP) are needed. The Earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign (EOP PCC) that started in October 2005 was organized for the purpose of assessing the accuracy of EOP predictions. This paper summarizes the results of the EOP PCC after nearly two and a half years of operational activity. The ultra short-term (predictions to 10 days into the future), short-term (30 days), and medium-term (500 days) EOP predictions submitted by the participants were evaluated by the same statistical technique based on the mean absolute prediction error using the IERS EOP 05 C04 series as a reference. A combined series of EOP predictions computed as a weighted mean of all submissions available at a given prediction epoch was also evaluated. The combined series is shown to perform very well, as do some of the individual series, especially those using atmospheric angular momentum forecasts. A main conclusion of the EOP PCC is that no single prediction technique performs the best for all EOP components and all prediction intervals.     

The 2008 DGFI realization of the ITRS: DTRF2008

A new realization of the International Terrestrial System was computed at the ITRS Combination Centre at DGFI as a contribution to ITRF2008. The solution is labelled DTRF2008. In the same way as in the DGFI computation for ITRF2005 it is based on either normal equation systems or estimated parameters derived from VLBI, SLR, GPS and DORIS observations by weekly or session-wise processing. The parameter space of the ITRS realization comprises station positions and velocities and daily resolved Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP), whereby for the first time also nutation parameters are included. The advantage of starting from time series of input data is that the temporal behaviour of geophysical parameters can be investigated to decide whether the parameters can contribute to the datum realization of the ITRF. In the same way, a standardized analysis of station position time series can be performed to detect and remove discontinuities. The advantage of including EOP in the ITRS realization is twofold: (1) the combination of the coordinates of the terrestrial pole—estimated from all contributing techniques—links the technique networks in two components of the orientation, leading to an improvement of consistency of the Terrestrial Reference Frame (TRF) and (2) in their capacity as parameters common to all techniques, the terrestrial pole coordinates enhance the selection of local ties as they provide a measure for the consistency of the combined frame. The computation strategy of DGFI is based on the combination of normal equation systems while at the ITRS Combination Centre at IGN solutions are combined. The two independent ITRS realizations provide the possibility to assess the accuracy of ITRF by comparison of the two frames. The accuracy evaluation was done separately for the datum parameters (origin, orientation and scale) and the network geometry. The accuracy of the datum parameters, assessed from the comparison of DTRF2008 and ITRF2008, is between 2–5?mm and 0.1–0.8?mm/year depending on the technique. The network geometry (station positions and velocities) agrees within 3.2?mm and 1.0?mm/year. A comparison of DTRF2008 and ITRF2005 provides similar results for the datum parameters, but there are larger differences for the network geometry. The internal accuracy of DTRF2008—that means the level of conservation of datum information and network geometry within the combination—was derived from comparisons with the technique-only multi-year solutions. From this an internal accuracy of 0.32?mm for the VLBI up to 3.3?mm for the DORIS part of the network is found. The internal accuracy of velocities ranges from 0.05?mm/year for VLBI to 0.83?mm/year for DORIS. The internal consistency of DTRF2008 for orientation can be derived from the analysis of the terrestrial pole coordinates. It is estimated at 1.5–2.5?mm for the GPS, VLBI and SLR parts of the network. The consistency of these three and the DORIS network part is within 6.5?mm.     

基于VLBI与BDS联合解算ERP的算法研究

利用PANDA软件解算2016年第61~91天的MGEX(Multi-GNSS Experiment)服务站的北斗数据,获得地球自转参数(ERP)。利用VieVS2.2软件处理了同时段的甚长基线干涉测量(VLBI)数据。采用基于IERS 08C04序列的定权方法对BDS和VLBI的解算结果进行加权平均,得到综合的ERP值。结果表明,与IERS比较,极移在X方向差值的RMS为0.249 mas,Y方向差值的RMS为0.296 mas,UT1-UTC差值的RMS为0.053 ms.利用BDS与VLBI数据对ERP参数进行联合解算,弥补了BDS解算结果不稳定和VLBI观测不连续的缺陷,使解算结果的稳定性和可靠性均有所提高。      

Global optimization of core station networks for space geodesy: application to the referencing of the SLR EOP with respect to ITRF

We apply global optimization in order to optimize the referencing (and consequently the stability) of the Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) with respect to ITRF2005. These EOP are derived at a daily sampling from SLR data, simultaneously with weekly station positions. The EOP referencing is carried out with minimum constraints applied weekly to the three rotations and over core station networks. Our approach is based on a multi objective genetic algorithm, a particular stochastic global optimization method, the reference system effects being the objectives to minimize. We thus use rigorous criteria for the optimal weekly core station selection. The results evidence an improvement of 10% of the stability for Polar Motion (PM) series in comparison to the results obtained with the network specially designed for EOP referencing by the Analysis Working Group of the International Laser Ranging Service. This improvement of nearly 25 μas represents 50% of the current precision of the IERS 05 C04 PM reference series. We also test the possibility of averaging the weekly networks provided by our algorithm (the Genetically Modified Networks—GMN) over the whole time period. Although the dynamical nature of the GMN is clearly a key point of their success, we can derive such a global mean core network, which could be useful for practical applications regarding EOP referencing. Using this latter core network moreover provides more stable EOP series than the conventional network does.     

Asymptotic theory for calculating deformations caused by dislocations buried in a spherical earth: geoid change

An asymptotic theory is presented for calculating co-seismic potential and geoid changes, as an approximation of the dislocation theory for a spherical Earth. This theory is given by a closed-form mathematical expression, so that it is mathematically simple and can be applied easily. Moreover, since the asymptotic theory includes sphericity and vertical structure effects, it is physically more reasonable than the flat-Earth theory. A comparison between results calculated by three dislocation theories (the flat-Earth theory, the theory for a spherical Earth and its asymptotic solution) shows that the true co-seismic geoid changes are approximated better by the asymptotic results than by those of a flat Earth. Numerical results indicate that the sphericity effect is obvious large, especially for a tensile source on a vertical fault plane. AcknowledgementsThe author is grateful to Dr S. Okubo for his helpful suggestions and discussions. Comments by anonymous reviewers are also greatly acknowledged. This research was financially supported by JSPS research grants (C13640420) and Basic design and feasibility studies for the future missions for monitoring Earths environment.     

Comparison of polar motion with oceanic and atmospheric angular momentum time series for 2-day to Chandler periods

During a 4-year period starting in July 1996 and using intervals ranging from 3 days to 4 years, four precise polar motion (PM) series have been compared to excitation by atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) augmented with oceanic angular momentum (OAM) data. The first three series (C03, C04 and Bulletin A) are multi-technique combinations generated by the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) and the fourth combined series (IGS00P02) is produced by the International GPS Service (IGS) using only GPS data. The IGS PM compared the best with the combined excitations of atmosphere and oceans (AAM+OAM) at all intervals, showing high overall correlation of 0.8–0.9. Even for the interval of only three days, the IGS PM gave a significant correlation of about 0.6. Moreover, during the interval of February 1999 – July 2000, which should be representative of the current precision of the IGS PM, a significant correlation (>0.4) extended to periods as short as 2.2 days and 2.5 days for the x_p and y_p PM components, respectively. When using the IERS Bulletin B (C04) PM and an interval of almost 6 years, starting in November 1994, the combined OAM+AAM accounted for practically all the annual, semi-annual and Chandler wobble (CW) PM signals. When only AAM was used, either the US National Centers for Environment Prediction reanalysis data, which were used throughout this study, or the Japanese Meteorological Agency data, two large and well-resolved amplitude peaks of about 0.1 mas/day, remained at the retrograde annual and CW periods.     

Monitoring Earth orientation using space-geodetic techniques: state-of-the-art and prospective

Earth orientation parameters (EOPs) provide the transformation between the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) and the International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF). The different EOP series computed at the Earth Orientation Centre at the Paris Observatory are obtained from the combination of individual EOP series derived from the various space-geodetic techniques. These individual EOP series contain systematic errors, generally limited to biases and drifts, which introduce inconsistencies between EOPs and the terrestrial and celestial frames. The objectives of this paper are first to present the various combined EOP solutions made available at the EOP Centre for the different users, and second to present analyses concerning the long-term consistency of the EOP system with respect to both terrestrial and celestial reference frames. It appears that the present accuracy in the EOP combined IERS C04 series, which is at the level of 200 as for pole components and 20 s for UT1, does not match its internal precision, respectively 100 as and 5 s, because of propagation errors in the realization of the two reference frames. Rigorous combination methods based on a simultaneous estimation of station coordinates and EOPs, which are now being implemented within the International Earth Rotation Service (IERS), are likely to solve this problem in the future.     

Assessment of periodic sub-diurnal Earth rotation variations at tidal frequencies through transformation of VLBI normal equation systems

We present an empirical model for periodic variations of diurnal and sub-diurnal Earth rotation parameters (ERPs) that was derived based on the transformation of normal equation (NEQ) systems of Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) observing sessions. NEQ systems that contain highly resolved polar motion and UT1-TAI with a temporal resolution of 15 min were generated and then transformed to the coefficients of the tidal ERP model to be solved for. To investigate the quality of this model, comparisons with empirical models from the Global Positioning System (GPS), another VLBI model and the model adopted by the conventions of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) were performed. The absolute coefficients of these models agree almost completely within 7.5 μ as in polar motion and 0.5 μs in UT1-TAI. Several bigger differences exist, which are discussed in this paper. To be able to compare the model estimates with results of the continuous VLBI campaigns, where signals with periods of 8 and 6 h were detected, terms in the ter- and quarter-diurnal band were included in the tidal ERP model. Unfortunately, almost no common features with the results of continuous VLBI campaigns or ERP predictions in these tidal bands can be seen.     

Quality assessment of GPS reprocessed terrestrial reference frame

The International GNSS Service (IGS) contributes to the construction of the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF) by submitting time series of station positions and Earth Rotation Parameters (ERP). For the first time, its submission to the ITRF2008 construction is based on a combination of entirely reprocessed GPS solutions delivered by 11 Analysis Centers (ACs). We analyze the IGS submission and four of the individual AC contributions in terms of the GNSS frame origin and scale, station position repeatability and time series seasonal variations. We show here that the GPS Terrestrial Reference Frame (TRF) origin is consistent with Satellite laser Ranging (SLR) at the centimeter level with a drift lower than 1 mm/year. Although the scale drift compared to Very Long baseline Interferometry (VLBI) and SLR mean scale is smaller than 0.4 mm/year, we think that it would be premature to use that information in the ITRF scale definition due to its strong dependence on the GPS satellite and ground antenna phase center variations. The new position time series also show a better repeatability compared to past IGS combined products and their annual variations are shown to be more consistent with loading models. The comparison of GPS station positions and velocities to those of VLBI via local ties in co-located sites demonstrates that the IGS reprocessed solution submitted to the ITRF2008 is more reliable and precise than any of the past submissions. However, we show that some of the remaining inconsistencies between GPS and VLBI positioning may be caused by uncalibrated GNSS radomes.     

The international global navigation satellite systems service (IGS): development and achievements

Since 21 June 1992 the International GPS Service (IGS), renamed International GNSS Service in 2005, produces and makes available uninterrupted time series of its products, in particular GPS observations from the IGS Global Network, GPS orbits, Earth orientation parameters (components x and y of polar motion, length of day) with daily time resolution, satellite and receiver clock information for each day with different latencies and accuracies, and station coordinates and velocities in weekly batches for further analysis by the IERS (International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service). At a later stage the IGS started exploiting its network for atmosphere monitoring, in particular for ionosphere mapping, for troposphere monitoring, and time and frequency transfer. This is why new IGS products encompass ionosphere maps and tropospheric zenith delays. This development became even more important when more and more space-missions carrying space-borne GPS for various purposes were launched. This article offers an overview for the broader scientific community of the development of the IGS and of the spectrum of topics addressed today with IGS data and products.     

Improved UT1 predictions through low-latency VLBI observations

The quality of predictions of Earth orientation parameters (EOPs) in general, and of Universal Time (UT1) in particular, depends strongly on the time delay between the last observation available and the first prediction. Since 30 September 2007 (MJD 54373), the latency of UT1 results from a subset of single baseline VLBI observations running once per week (Mondays) has been decreased from 2 to 3 days to about 8 h. This was achieved by transmitting the raw VLBI data of 1-h duration from the observing sites in Tsukuba (Japan), Wettzell (Germany) and Ny-Ålesund (Norway) to the correlator of the Max-Planck-Institute for Radio Astronomy and the German Federal Agency of Cartography and Geodesy at Bonn, Germany, by high-speed Internet connections (e-Transfer). The reduced latency of the observations has improved the accuracy of the combined International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) Rapid Service/Prediction Center (RS/PC) UT1-UTC solution by roughly 50% on the days when the data are available. Because this combination is an input to the UT1-UTC prediction process, the improved latency is also responsible for a roughly 21% improvement in the accuracy of short-term IERS RS/PC UT1-UTC predictions on the days where the data are available.     

Use of atmospheric angular momentum forecasts for UT1 predictions: analyses over CONT08

Real-time orbit determination and interplanetary navigation require accurate predictions of the orientation of the Earth in the celestial reference frame and in particular that for Universal Time UT1. Much of the UT1 variations over periods ranging from hours to a couple of years are due to the global atmospheric circulation. Therefore, the axial atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) forecast series may be used as a proxy index to predict UT1. Our approach taking advantage of this fact is based on an adaptive procedure. It involves incorporating integrations of AAM estimates into UT1 series. The procedure runs on a routine basis using AAM forecasts that are based on the two meteorological series, from the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the Japan Meteorological Agency. It is pertinent to test the prediction method for the period that includes the special CONT08 campaign over which we expect a significant improvement in UT1 accuracy. The studies we carried out were aimed both to compare atmospheric forecasts and analyses, as well as to compare the skills of the UT1 forecasts based on the method with atmospheric forecasts and that using current statistical processes, as applied to the C04 Earth orientation parameters series derived by the International Earth rotation and Reference Systems service (IERS). Here we neglect the oceanic sub-diurnal and diurnal variations, as these signals are expected to be smaller than the UT1-equivalent of 100 μs, when averaged over a few days. The prediction performances for a 2-day forecast are similar, but at a forecast horizon of a week, the AAM-based forecast is roughly twice as skillful as the statistically based one.