Poisson distribution of the Iranian declustered earthquake catalog

Two main goals are considered in this paper: (1) modification and computation of the local coefficients of the space-time windows in the well-known declustering algorithm introduced by Gardner and Knopoff (1974) and (2) checking the independence of the Iranian mainshocks obtained from applying the new modified model. First, 21 of the well-documented earthquake sequences of Iran in the time period of 1972 to 2008 with the mainshock magnitude ranged from M _w = 5.4–7.1 were used to define the new local space-time windows of declustering. Generally, using these Iranian earthquake sequences led to introduce bigger space-time windows for the new model in comparison to the Gardner and Knopoff’s (1974) windows. In the next step, to control the independence of Iranian mainshocks, the events of the Iranian earthquake catalog in the time span of 1964–2010 with moment magnitude of M _w = 3.5–7.4 were used. In this respect, dependent events corresponding to the seven seismotectonic zones of Iran were removed using the new modified space-time windows. After declustering, the mainshock catalog was examined by the Kolmogorov–Smirnov goodness-of-fit test, and it was found to follow a Poisson distribution in all the studied seismotectonic zones of Iran. The same test on times between successive declustered events shows that the inter-event times of all catalogs follow an exponential distribution.     

多年冻土区桩基温度场研究

为了解决多年冻土区桥梁桩基浇筑混凝土对冻土层地温的影响,把握后续工程施工,需要对多年冻土区桩基温度场进行认真分析与研究。结合冻土桩的特点,根据冻融循环条件下土体热量迁移的基本规律,基于多孔介质和热力学理论,建立了多年冻土区桩基温度场控制方程。该控制方程不仅包括了热传导和相变潜热对温度分布的影响,而且考虑了混凝土水化热的释放规律,并将研究成果与的西藏某大直径灌注桩温度场现场试验结果进行对比分析。结果表明：所建立的冻土区桩基温度场控制方程计算结果与实测结果吻合较好。在此基础上,应用该模型作数值分析,着重分析了不同深度处桩侧土层温度随时间变化规律和混凝土浇注后不同时期温度沿桩径方向的变化规律,于解决西部多年冻土地区公路运营安全和行车性能,准确掌握多年冻土地区已建桥涵和新建桥涵基础稳定性,具有非常重要的理论和实际意义。     

京津冀地区历史地震事件时空特征研究*

受环太平洋地震带影响,华北平原地区地震频发,尤其是处于中国首都经济圈的京津冀地区的地震事件备受关注。通过对历史文献资料及地震台网记录中的地震事件统计、分析,重建该地区地震事件历史并获取其潜在的空间分布特征及时间规律,对未来地震事件的早期预警具有重要参考意义。分析结果表明,公元前231年至公元2018年期间京津冀地区发生的1044起地震事件中,以有感地震和中强地震为主,小地震、强烈地震以及大地震发生频次较低。地震记录完整性分析结果表明,除小地震外,其他等级地震记录自公元1400年以来基本完整。在空间分布上,京津冀地区历史地震呈“T”字形分布,沿1条北西—南东走向地震带和1条北东—南西走向地震带分布。在时间上,京津冀地区地震事件呈现出阶段性的变化,在公元1480—1680年间以及1950年以来2个时间段内较为活跃,发生频率较高,频谱分析结果进一步表明地震记录存在45年的复发周期。在月际尺度上,地震事件同样存在季节性差异且多发于夏秋季节,同时地震密集区域在年内呈现出自西向东迁移的现象。最后,根据历史地震事件发生的时间规律,在未来一段时间内京津冀地区仍将处于地震活跃期,存在发生强震的风险。     

Three-parameter generalized exponential distribution in earthquake recurrence interval estimation

The purpose of this article is to study the three-parameter (scale, shape, and location) generalized exponential (GE) distribution and examine its suitability in probabilistic earthquake recurrence modeling. The GE distribution shares many physical properties of the gamma and Weibull distributions. This distribution, unlike the exponential distribution, overcomes the burden of memoryless property. For shape parameter  β> 1, the GE distribution offers increasing hazard function, which is in accordance with the elastic rebound theory of earthquake generation. In the present study, we consider a real, complete, and homogeneous earthquake catalog of 20 events with magnitude above 7.0 (Yadav et al. in Pure Appl Geophys 167:1331–1342, 2010) from northeast India and its adjacent regions (20°–32°N and 87°–100°E) to analyze earthquake inter-occurrence time from the GE distribution. We apply the modified maximum likelihood estimation method to estimate model parameters. We then perform a number of goodness-of-fit tests to evaluate the suitability of the GE model to other competitive models, such as the gamma and Weibull models. It is observed that for the present data set, the GE distribution has a better and more economical representation than the gamma and Weibull distributions. Finally, a few conditional probability curves (hazard curves) are presented to demonstrate the significance of the GE distribution in probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazards.     

Density distribution functions and correlations of earthquake parameters

The statistical analysis of the source parameters of 9 earthquake sets of different types (aftershocks, scattered events, swarms) and of different seismic regions shows that the density distribution function (ddf) of the linear dimension l of a fault is represented by a negative power law, as well as the ddf of the static stress drop σ and of the scalar seismic moment M_o. It is then suggested, and tentatively verified, that also the ddf of the root mean square ground acceleration, defined as a function of l and σ, may be represented by a negative power law and that, at least in the cases examined, it scales like the ddf of σ. It is seen that the variability of the static stress drop is significant from one region to another, as is well known, but it seems remarkable also in the same seismic region (in particular in California, σ varies by several orders of magnitude) and in the different sets of events of a given region (as observed again for California). It is hypothesized that a correlation, although weak, between the stress drop and the linear dimension of a fault exists and the analyses seem not to contradict that σ may be a decreasing function of l. Finally, it is suggested that the seismicity of a region may be represented two-dimensionally as a function of the ddf of the stress drop and of the linear dimension of a fault instead of the classic b and b_o values.     

A study of earthquake inter-occurrence times distribution models in Taiwan

Natural Hazards - Statistical studies on earthquake recurrence time probabilities have frequently been applied to seismic hazard analyses. In Taiwan, an instrumental catalog provides a good...     

The distribution of annual maximum earthquake magnitude around Taiwan and its application in the estimation of catastrophic earthquake recurrence probability

The annual maximum earthquake magnitudes around Taiwan from 1900 to 2009 are presented in this paper. Using the distribution of the AMEM, a probabilistic framework to estimate the recurrence probability of a large-size earthquake is also proposed and an illustration was made in this paper. The mean value of the 110-AMEM is 6.433, and the coefficient of variation is around 10%. The results of two goodness-of-fit tests show that the Gamma and lognormal distributions are relatively suitable to represent the AMEM around Taiwan among five common probability distributions. Using the proposed approach, the recurrence probability is 4% for an earthquake with magnitude greater than 7.5 in a 1-year period around Taiwan. More site-specifically, the probability is around 5% in Central Taiwan for such an earthquake to occur in a 50-year period.     

Geothermal field and distribution for earthquake source depths in the Baikal Rift Zone

A comparison between values of thermal flux and the deep temperatures calculated by them and the depths of earthquake sources in three areas of the Baikal Rift Zone is made. It has been shown that during transit from the Baikal depression to the adjacent mountain massif, the thermal flux decreases almost 2–3 times. The corresponding deep temperatures decrease to a similar degree. The available data for these areas on earthquake depths show that their lower boundary both beneath the depression and the massif is located at almost the same depth, which is about 20 km. In this paper, the conclusion is made that the cause of the absence of an interrelation between thermal and seismic fields lies in the discrepancy between the measured values of thermal flux and its deep values. This discrepancy arises because conductive heat transfer in the upper part of the Earth’s crust, up to 5–10 km depth, is highly distorted by heat-and-mass transfer of ground waters. In the middle part of the crust, the difference in temperatures beneath depressions and ridges is leveled horizontally, which is reflected in almost the same depth for the basement of the seismogenerating layer beneath these main rift structures.     

The role of gender and age in fracture distribution following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

This study explored demographic variations among victims injured in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The study analyzed records of 2,148 patients who were hospitalized with earthquake-related injuries in 14 hospitals between May 12 and May 21 of 2008. We tested the effects of gender and age on the incidence of fractures and amputations. Although more women than men were hospitalized as earthquake victims, the results indicated that a higher incidence of pelvic fracture in women was the only statistically significant injury with regard to gender. Age had a more complex effect on the rate and pattern of fractures. Children younger than 15 years old were the most likely to sustain skull fractures and amputations. The elderly were the most likely to be associated with limb fractures. Adult men were the most likely to suffer spine fractures and adult women rib fractures. The paper concludes with an interpretation of the results in the context of China’s rural conditions and discusses implications for post-disaster emergency operations and planning.     

基于TRMM降水数据的山区降水垂直分布特征

选择天山和祁连山区为典型区,利用台站降水数据验证以上两区多卫星降水数据(TRMM)精度的基础上,借助TRMM数据分析了所选山区年降水梯度效应,并探讨了天山及祁连山最大降水高度带.结果表明,多卫星降水数据在天山和祁连山区精度较高,天山及祁连山年降水量都明显受到海拔影响,降水随海拔升高而增加,但天山降水与海拔正相关关系最好,南、北和西坡相关系数分别为0.90、0.81和0.58,多年平均降水直减率分别为11.0mm/100 m、6.3 mm/100 m、7.4 mm/100 m,最大降水高度带则分别位于海拔2 200~3 500 m和3 200~3 700 m和3 000m左右;祁连山东、中、西段降水随海拔有增加趋势,但降水梯度效应在祁连山东段明显高于祁连山中西段地区,梯度效应由东向西呈现递减趋势,其最大降水带主要分布在东段4 000~4 500 m的高山带.     

基于尼泊尔Mw7.8地震的喜马拉雅俯冲带滑坡分布规律研究

全球多数大地震发生在俯冲带地区,然而对于俯冲带地震诱发的滑坡研究并不多见。2015年4月25日尼泊尔廓尔喀县发生了Mw78地震,为喜马拉雅俯冲带近70年来的首次强震,震源机制解表明为低角度逆冲型的俯冲带地震,触发了大量滑坡、崩塌等地震次生灾害。通过遥感解译和现场调查获取2072组地震滑坡信息,揭示滑坡多数分布在海拔1000m~3000m之间,高喜马拉雅与低喜马拉雅的过渡区域,基本沿主中央逆冲断裂断裂(MCT)展布,地势落差大。早期断裂活动频繁,由中、高级变质岩和新生代浅色花岗岩变为古生代沉积岩和少量岩浆岩组成的逆冲岩席,易于发生滑坡、崩塌等地质灾害。滑坡坡度值优势分布区间为35°~40°,与中国西部地区一致,说明地震滑坡坡度分布与大的构造背景相关性较小,可能受局部地形地貌、地层岩性等因素控制。坡向值的优势分布区间为120°~200°,与水平形变场关系紧密。以尼泊尔地震滑坡为例探讨了喜马拉雅俯冲带地震滑坡的特征：滑坡点明显呈相对较宽的矩形区域展布,受深部逆冲推覆构造低倾角的断层破裂面影响较大,滑坡全部位于上盘,由于地震运动的惯性作用,在坡向与上盘逆冲方向一致的斜坡上容易诱发地震滑坡。     

Recent plumbing system of the Krakatau volcano revealed by teleseismic earthquake distribution

Spatial and temporal analysis of global seismological data 1964–2005 reveals a distinct teleseismic earthquake activity producing a columnar-like formation in the continental wedge between the Krakatau volcano at the surface and the subducting slab of the Indo-Australian plate. These earthquakes occur continuously in time, are in the body-wave (m _b) magnitude range 4.5–5.3 and in the depth range 1–100 km. The Krakatau earthquake cluster is vertical and elongated in the azimuth N30°E, suggesting existence of a deep-rooted fault zone cutting the Sunda Strait in the SSW-NNE direction. Possible continuation of the fault zone in the SW direction was activated by an intensive 2002/2003 aftershock sequence, elongated in the azimuth of N55°E. Beneath the Krakatau earthquake cluster, an aseismic gap exists in the Wadati-Benioff zone of the subducting plate at the depths 100–120 km. We interpret this aseismic gap as a consequence of partial melting inhibiting stress concentration necessary to generate stronger earthquakes, whereas the numerous earthquakes observed in the overlying lithospheric wedge beneath the volcano probably reflect magma ascent in the recent plumbing system of the Krakatau volcano. Focal depth of the deepest events (~100 km) of the Krakatau cluster constrains the location of the primary magma generation to greater depths. The ascending magmatic fluids stress fault segments within the Sunda Strait fault zone and change their friction parameters inducing the observed tectonic earthquakes beneath Krakatau.     

Peculiarities of hydrocarbon distribution in the snow-ice cover of different regions of the white sea

This paper presents data on the content of hydrocarbons (HCs) in the snow-ice cover of the coastal regions of the Dvina and Kandalaksha gulfs, White Sea, in 2008–2012 in comparison with the content of organic carbon, lipids, and the suspension. The accumulation of HCs in the snow-ice cover depends on the degree of pollution of the atmosphere, formation conditions of ice, and intensity of biogeochemical processes at the ice-water boundary. Thus, the highest concentrations in the water basin of Arkhangelsk are identified in snow and in the upper part of the ice. The peculiarities of formation of the snow-ice cover in Rugozero Bay of the Kandalaksha Gulf leads to the concentration of HCs in different snow and ice layers. The decreased HC content in the snow-ice cover of the White Sea, in comparison with previous studies, is caused by recession of industrial production in recent years.     

Observed correlations between aftershock spatial distribution and earthquake fault lengths

We observe the spatial distributions of the magnitude of aftershocks following the six earthquakes of focal depth shallower than 20 km with magnitude more than 5.0 from 1983 to 1987 in Japan. The upper limit of the aftershock magnitude is examined as a function of the distance from mainshock hypocentre. The observed spatial distributions of the upper limit are bimodal, with a tendency of the upper limit to decrease as the distance from mainshock hypocentre increases. Moreover, we observe the correlations between the aftershock spatial distribution and earthquake fault length. We focus on the largest aftershocks in each of two aftershock sequences constituting the bimodal distribution. The distances of the two largest aftershocks from the mainshock hypocentre are equal to the fault lengths of shallow earthquakes in Japan and to the maximum earthquake fault lengths.     

基于基岩裂缝分布的地震影响场分析

地震影响系数是地震安全评价的一个重要参数,由于受地下岩体条件影响,地震影响系数的确定在很大程度上具有不确定性,传统方法得到的地震影响场难以满足城市和重大工程抗震的要求,因此,地震影响场的不确定性校正是城市和工程抗震的一个必要环节。通过对地下岩体裂缝分布的数值模拟,得到基岩裂缝和地下能量等指标的分布。进而应用人工神经网络方法,确定基岩裂缝、能量、位移等指标的分布与地震影响系数之间的关系,探讨基岩条件对地震影响系数的影响,得到地震影响系数计算模型。计算了唐山市地震影响场,分析了计算结果,并对城市规划和工程建设提出了几点建议。     

Spatial distribution of landslides induced by the 2004 Mid-Niigata prefecture earthquake,Japan

On October 23, 2004, an earthquake with a moment magnitude of 6.8 occurred in the Chuetsu area of Niigata prefecture in Japan. This earthquake is known as the 2004 Mid-Niigata prefecture earthquake; the event was followed by severe aftershocks and caused many types of landslides such as surficial slides, shallow slides, and deep slides. A large number of landslides occurred in the upland village of Yamakoshi, destroying the entire village; in addition, a huge number of houses collapsed in Kawaguchi town. This study investigates the correlations between each type of landslide and the bedding plane orientation and dip, and other geomorphologic conditions. The landslide occurrence ratio (LOR) is used as an index to determine the correlation between the 2004 Mid-Niigata prefecture earthquake-induced landslides and the slope angle, slope aspect, rock type, and bedding plane orientation and dip. This work also proposes a methodology to determine the geometric alignment between the topography and the orientation of geological bedding planes. The method provides an efficient means of estimating the topography/bedding plane relationship over large areas.     

Asperity distribution of the 1964 Great Alaska earthquake and its relation to subsequent seismicity in the region

The 1964 Alaska earthquake was the second largest seismic events in the 20th century. The aim of this work is the use of surface deformation data to determine asperity and slip distributions on the fault plane of the Alaska earthquake: these distributions are calculated by a Monte Carlo method. To this aim, we decompose the fault plane in a large number of small square asperity units with a side of 25 km; this allows us to obtain plane surfaces with an irregular shape. In the first stage, each asperity unit is allowed to slip a constant amount or not to slip at all, providing the geometry of the dislocation surface that best reproduces the observed displacements. To this purpose, a large number of slip distributions have been tried by the use of the Monte Carlo method. The slip amplitude is the same for all the asperities and is equal to the average fault slip inferred from the seismic moment. In the second stage, we evaluate the slip distribution in the dislocation area determined by the Monte Carlo inversion: in this case, we allow unit cells to undergo different values of slip in order to refine the initial dislocation model. The results confirm the previous finding that the slip distribution of the great Alaska earthquake was essentially made of two dislocation areas with a higher slip, the Prince William Sound and the Kodiak asperities. Analysis of the post-1964 seismicity in the rupture region shows a strong correlation between the larger earthquakes (M_w≥6) and the distribution of locked asperities following the 1964 event, which can be considered as an independent test of the validity of the model. We do not find slip values higher than 25 m for any of the patches, and we determine two separate high-slip zones: one correspondent to the Prince William Sound asperity, and one (18 m slip) to the Kodiak asperity. The slip distribution connected with the 1964 shock appears to be consistent with the following seismicity in the region.     

黔桂喀斯特山地NDVI的垂直分布特征

黔桂喀斯特山地地形复杂,植被覆盖度垂直特征分异显著,以往研究多从气候因子响应方面探讨其垂直分布差异,而研究区人地矛盾尖锐,人类活动对植被分布有重要的影响。文章以黔桂喀斯特山地为例,利用2010年MODIS13Q1 NDVI数据表征植被覆盖度,结合高程、坡度和坡向等地形特征,不同土地利用类型的分布情况,叠置分析研究区的NDVI垂直分布特征。结果表明:黔桂喀斯特山地以林地、耕地和草地为主,不同土地利用类型随海拔、坡度和坡向的变化呈现不同的分布特征。研究区NDVI平均值为0.59,其中林地NDVI最大,达到0.63,草地为0.58,耕地最小为0.54。空间分布上,贵州境内NDVI值大部分为0.5~0.6,广西境内自西北向东南NDVI值由0.8逐渐降低至0.4,以0.6~0.7为主。NDVI在垂直梯度上分布特征显著,与植被垂直地带性分布以及不同地类的垂直分布特征有密切关系。海拔分布上,NDVI在海拔小于200 m区间最小,400~600 m的区间最大;北部贵州整体海拔较高,但植被覆盖度较低;南部广西海拔较低,但植被覆盖度较高。坡度分布上,在坡度小于35°范围,随坡度增大,耕地、水域、建设用地面积迅速减少,林草地面积逐步增加,使得NDVI随坡度增大逐渐增大。坡向分布上,NDVI不随坡向变化呈现明显变化,仅偏东坡向稍大于偏西坡向。研究表明应根据海拔和坡度等地形特征,并考虑土地利用情况,因地制宜进行生态建设。      

Spatial distribution of landslides triggered by the 2008 Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake,China

The Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of May 12, 2008 is one of the most disastrous earthquakes in China. The earthquake triggered tens of thousands of landslides over a broad area, including shallow, disrupted landslides, rock falls, deep-seated landslides, and rock avalanches, some of which buried large sections of some towns and dammed the rivers. The purpose of this study is to investigate correlations between the occurrence of landslides with geologic and geomorphologic conditions, and seismic parameters. Over 56,000 earthquake-triggered landslides, with a total area of 811 km², are interpreted using aerial photographs and remote sensing images taken following the earthquake. The spatial distribution of these landslides is analyzed statistically using both landslide-point density (LPD), defined as the number of landslides per square kilometer, and landslide-area density (LAD), the percentage of the area affected by landslides, to determine how the occurrence of landslides correlates with distance from the epicenter, distance from the major surface rupture, seismic intensity and peak ground acceleration (PGA), slope angle, slope aspect, elevation, and lithology. It is found that both LAD and LPD have strong positive correlations with slope steepness, distance from the major surface rupture and seismic intensity, and that Pre-Sinian schist, and Cambrian sandstone and siltstone intercalated with slate have the most concentrated landslide activities, followed by the Permian limestone intercalated with shale, and Devonian limestone. Statistical analyses also indicate that the major surface rupture has influence on the spatial distribution of landslides, because LAD and LPD are relatively higher on the hanging wall than on the footwall. However, the correlation between the occurrence of landslides with distance from the epicenter of the earthquake is complicated, rather than a relatively simple negative correlation as found from other reported cases of earthquakes. This is possibly due to complicated rupture processes of the earthquake.