海域煤层防水安全煤柱估算方法评述——以山东省黄县煤田梁家煤矿扩大区（西海域）为例

山东省黄县煤田梁家煤矿位扩大区位于龙口湾内,水文地质条件与陆地不同,通过海域钻孔资料分析,划分出松散层及煤层和顶底板含隔水层,结合伺服试验结果进行充水因素分析,计算导水裂隙带高度和防水煤柱高度,从而合理留设防水安全煤柱,为安全采煤提供重要依据。     

海陆过渡带氯离子迁移规律分析研究

伴随全球气候变暖导致的海平面上升及沿海地区对地下水资源的超量开采,将会诱发海咸水入侵内陆地下水,导致海陆过渡带的迁移,影响区域社会经济及水资源安全。该文以山东半岛蓝色经济区为研究背景,选取区域内龙口、招远滨海区域作为研究区,首先对研究区内的地下水流场规律进行刻画,然后以模拟因子,对目前地下水超采情景下的海陆过渡带迁移规律进行量化分析研究,研究结果表明:龙口、招远滨海区域海陆过渡带的宽度约为1.5～4.5km,且内陆地下水位越高,海陆过渡带向内陆迁移的速度越慢、范围越小。该成果对研究山东半岛蓝色经济区海陆过渡带的迁移具有重要指导意义。     

1974-2017年山东省大陆海岸围填海动态变化分析

围填海是沿海地区解决土地资源短缺的重要手段,及时准确地监测地区围填海时空动态变化对于合理保护海岸带资源和推进地区社会经济可持续发展具有重要意义。本文基于遥感、GIS技术,结合多种数据源,提取并分析1974-2017年山东省大陆海岸围填海时空动态变化特征。结果表明,43年来山东省大陆海岸围填海面积持续增长,到2017年总面积达到4649.26 km ²,围海为主要利用方式。围海活动多分布于黄河三角洲及莱州湾滩涂海域,填海活动则集中分布于沿海各大港口海域和城市滨海区域。全省围填海呈现出明显的阶段性特征,特别是2000年后,填海造地面积增加迅速,围海利用向填海造地转换现象突出,主要用于港口及临港产业发展和城镇与旅游基础设施建设,受沿海地区发展战略和城镇化、工业化驱动明显,围填海利用向综合化、多元化和集中集约化发展。     

红海湾水产养殖示范区水质综合评价

红海湾是广东省非常重要的海水养殖示范区。为了维系和保护红海湾规模化水产养殖示范区的优良生态环境 ,1 997年 4月至 1 998年 1 2月对红海湾水域水质的时空变化趋势和质量状况进行了研究与评价。结果表明 ,红海湾海水综合质量总体上处于相对清洁水平 ,但浅海养殖区和长沙湾养殖区有机污染明显 ,分别达富营养化和高富营养化程度。DIN和IP是水质富营养化的主要因素 ,而石油类、Cu、COD是重点控制的优先污染物。     

Climatology and seasonal variability of satellite-derived chlorophyll a around the Shandong Peninsula

The chlorophyll a(Chl a) is an important indicator of marine ecosystems. The spatiotemporal variation of the Chl a greatly aff ects the mariculture and marine ranching in coastal waters of the Shandong Peninsula. In the current study, the climatology and seasonal variability of surface Chl-a concentration around the Shandong Peninsula are investigated based on 16 years(December 2002–November 2018) of satellite observations. The results indicate that the annual mean Chl-a concentration is greater in the Bohai Sea than in the Yellow Sea and decreases from coastal waters to off shore waters. The highest Chl-a concentrations are found in Laizhou Bay(4.2–8.0 mg/m 3), Haizhou Bay(4.2–5.9 mg/m 3) and the northeast coast of the Shandong Peninsula(4.4–5.0 mg/m 3), resulting from the combined eff ects of the intense riverine input and long residence time caused by the concave shape of the coastline. The seasonal Chl-a concentration shows a signifi cant spatial variation. The Chl-a concentrations in these three subregions generally exhibit an annual maximum in August/September, due to the combined eff ects of sea surface temperature, river discharge and sea surface wind. In the southeast coast region, however, the Chl-a concentration is lowest throughout the year and reaches a maximum in February with a minimum in July, forced by the seasonal evolution of the Yellow Sea Cold Water and monsoon winds. The interannual Chl-a concentration trends vary among regions and seasons. There are signifi cant increasing trends over a large area around Haizhou Bay from winter to summer, which are mainly caused by the rising sea surface temperature and eutrophication. In other coastal areas, the Chl-a concentration shows decreasing trends, which are clearest in summer and induced by the weakening land rainfall. This study highlights the diff erences in the Chl-a dynamics among regions around the Shandong Peninsula and is helpful for further studies of coupled physical-ecological-human interactions at multiple scales.     

Distribution and accumulation characteristics of heavy metals in sediments in southern sea area of Huludao City, China

The southern sea area of the Huludao City, Liaoning Province might be polluted by heavy metals because it is close to the Jinzhou Bay, one of the heaviest sea area polluted by heavy metals in China. The undisturbed modern sediment core can be used to analyze the accumulation and source of the pollutants using 137 Cs and 210 Pb ex . Thirty-five samples of surface sediment and two core sediments were collected from the southern sea area of Huludao City. The concentrations of copper (Cu), lead (Pb), chrome (Cr), zinc (Zn), arsenic (As) and mercury (Hg) in the surface sediments as well as Cu, Pb, Zn, Cr, 137 Cs and 210 Pb ex in the core sediments were determined to research the spatial distribution and accumulation characteristics, and to analyze the sources and the potential risks of heavy metals. The results show that the pollution levels of Zn and Hg are serious, and 26 stations are at moderate or heavy ecological risks. The concentrations of the heavy metals increase from east to west, as well as from open sea to offshore marine area. The concentrations of heavy metals are not high in the sediments adjacent to the Jinzhou Bay, and the influence caused by the seawater exchange with the Jinzhou Bay is little. The concentrations of the heavy metals in the core sediments show low-high-low characteristic, and it coincides with the pollution history of Huludao City. The atmospheric deposition of heavy metals from the Huludao Zinc Plant is likely to be the main source of pollution without direct discharge of wastewater. The high concentrations of heavy metals appear on the upper sediment of 20 cm. The shallow sediment with high heavy metal contents might be exposed to surface when it was disturbed by the ocean engineering and big storm surge, then cause risk to the safety of aquaculture and human healthy.     

从苏北海岸的进退谈黄河泥沙利用问题

自１８５５ 年黄河改道北行至今,山东省的渤海湾海岸线向海方面推移了１９ｋｍ ,黄河泥沙的造陆面积达２８２７ｋｍ２ ,而在江苏省北部从双洋口至小丁港１５０ｋｍ 的海岸线上共失去土地１３２０ｋｍ２ 以上。作者认为,可以疏通明清黄河故道作为引黄工程,利用黄河携带的大量泥沙淤积于黄海沿岸,以减缓黄海岸线的侵蚀,还可抑制黄河泥沙沉积而造成的渤海的淤积。     

Prediction of china’s submerged coastal areas by sea level rise due to climate change

Based on the simulation with the Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model CCSM and Ocean Model POP under the greenhouse gas emission scenario of the IPCC SRES A2 (IPCC, 2001), and on the earth crust subsidence and glacier melting data, the relative sea level change is obtained along the coast of China in the 21st century. Using the SRTM elevation data the submergence of coastal low land is calculated under the extreme water level with a 100-year return period. The total flooding areas are 98.3×10³ and 104.9×10³ km² for 2050 and 2080, respectively. For the three regions most vulnerable to extreme sea level rise, i.e., the coast of Bohai Bay, the Yangtze River Delta together with neighboring Jiangsu Province and northern Zhejiang Province, and the Pearl River Delta, the flooded areas are 5.0×10³, 64.1×10³ and 15.3×10³ km² in 2050 and 5.2×10³, 67.8×10³ and 17.2×10³ km² in 2080, respectively.     

Impact of future sea level rise on flood and water logging disasters in lixiahe region

Lixiahe region is one of the susceptible area to flood and waterlogging disasters in China due to its low topographic relief and having difficulty in draining floodwater away. The condition will be more serious if sea level rises in the future. The estimated results by some scientists indicate that the sea level could rise probably 20–100 cm by 2050. However, what the effect will future sea level rise exerts on flood drainage and on flood or waterlogging disasters? A hydrological system model has been developed to study the problem in the lower reaches of the Sheyang River basin. Predicted results from the model show that, if sea level rises, drainage capacity of each drainage river will decrease obviously, and the water level will also rise. From the change of drainage capacity of drainage rivers the trends of flood and waterlogging disasters are analyzed in the paper if the severe flood that happened in the past meets with future sea level rise. Some countermeasures for disaster reduction and prevention against sea-level rise are put forward.     

IMPACT OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE ON FLOOD AND WATER LOGGING DISASTERS IN LIXIAHE REGION

ＩＭＰＡＣＴＯＦＦＵＴＵＲＥＳＥＡＬＥＶＥＬＲＩＳＥＯＮＦＬＯＯＤＡＮＤＷＡＴＥＲＬＯＧＧＩＮＧＤＩＳＡＳＴＥＲＳＩＮＬＩＸＩＡＨＥＲＥＧＩＯＮ许朋柱ＩＭＰＡＣＴＯＦＦＵＴＵＲＥＳＥＡＬＥＶＥＬＲＩＳＥＯＮＦＬＯＯＤＡＮＤＷＡＴＥＲＬＯＧＧＩＮＧＤＩ...     

The impact of coastal reclamation on tidal and storm surge level in Sanmen Bay,China

In recent years, fast economic development demands for more land use and thus many reclamation projects are initiated around the Sanmen Bay, Zhejiang, SE China in the East China Sea, for which tidal and storm surge levels are reassessed. A two-dimensional numerical model based on an advanced circulation model(ADCIRC) was applied to evaluate the impact of reclamation projects on tidal and storm surge levels in the bay. The results show that the shoreline relocation and topographic change had opposite effects on tidal heights. Shoreline relocation decreased the tidal amplitude, while siltation caused topographic change and increased the amplitude. Such variations of the amplitude were significant in the top areas of Sanmen Bay. Three types of typhoon paths were selected for a case study to investigate the impacts of shoreline relocation and topographic change on storm surge level. Results show that the maximum increase in storm surge level due to shoreline relocation was less than 0.06 m. The rise of peak surge level due to the change of topography was significant and the peak surge level rose when siltation increased. The maximum surge level rise occurred in the path of northwest landing typhoons, which exceeded 0.24 m at the top of the bay. The rise in peak surge level can potentially lead to severe damages and losses in Sanmen Bay and more attention needs to be paid to this problem of shoreline change in the future.     

利用空间聚集的贝叶斯网络评估手足口病发病风险

手足口病是一种常见的传染病,以往的研究表明该疾病与气象、环境和社会经济等因素相关联,其影响关系复杂,而疾病本身体现出较强的区域聚集性,采用普通的线性风险建模方法无法捕捉影响因素的复杂性及空间聚集性。因此,本文以山东省为例,在前人研究的基础上,提出了采用贝叶斯网络综合风险建模方法研究手足口病的发病风险与气象、土地利用、社会经济及空气污染等要素间的关系,并通过引入空间扫描统计聚集结果,将空间聚集引入到贝叶斯网络模型加强其空间推理功能,减少模型的偏差,提高评估的精度。结果表明,本文建立的手足口病空间贝叶斯网络风险模型具有较高的估计效果,引入的空间聚集性较好地融入到贝叶斯概率推理模型中,合理建立预测因子同手足口病发病风险之间的关系。通过对建模结果的解译,分析了手足口病的发病风险影响因素,特别是气候、社会经济及空气污染的影响。本文的空间贝叶斯建模方法及研究结果对手足口病暴发的防控预警具有重要的意义。     

山东省绿色发展效率时空演化及影响因素分析

运用基于非期望产出的SBM模型,对2007—2017年山东省17地市绿色发展效率进行测度,分析其时空演化特征,进一步构建Tobit模型探究其影响因素。研究表明:2007—2017年山东省各地市间绿色发展效率变化趋势呈现地域差异,东部地区效率提升快于中西部地区,且存在个别地市绿色发展效率下降与个别地市绿色发展效率上升并存的趋势特征。山东省绿色发展效率存在明显的空间分异性,且存在高效率区向东发展,低效率区转向中西部的演化特征。山东省绿色发展效率与经济发展水平之间存在U型曲线关系,且现阶段经济发展水平及城镇化水平对绿色发展具有显著的负向影响,产业结构、对外开放程度及科技创新对绿色发展效率具有显著的正向驱动作用。推动产业结构优化升级,以创新驱动发展,推动更高层次的对外开放是山东省绿色发展提升的重要途径。     

加拿大Hudson海湾地区的水文研究

Hudson海湾的河川径流量在整个加拿大河川径流量中占有很大的比例，所有河流排泄量约30％流人了Hudson和James海湾。研究了该地区河川径流与当地气候变化之间的关系；把河川向James海湾的排泄与曼尼托巴省Churchill地区海水位的变化联系起来，讨论了其对Hudson海湾再循环的影响；根据曼尼托巴省Churchill地区海水位的观测资料重点讨论了该地区海水位在历史时期的变化及未来的预测变化等三个重要水文问题。最后指出了今后在Hudson海湾地区进行水文研究的方向。     

Determination of copper complexation in surface microlayer of Daya Bay and Jiaozhou Bay

1 INTRODUCTION Bioavailability to the biota and the biogeo-chemistry of trace metals in marine environment areaffected by their chemical speciation in the naturalsystem (Bruland et al., 1991; Van den Berg andDonat, 1992; Wells et al., 1998). Therefore, thesetwo parameters, the ligands concentrations andconditional stability constants, are important todetermine the complexing capacity. Sea surface microlayer (SML), the thin interfa-cial boundary between ocean and atmosphere, playsan imp…     

An application of marine geomagnetic survey to shallow sea engineering geology

A marine geomagnetic survey was conducted over Red Bay, a broad shallow sea area in the southern part of the Shandong Peninsula, to obtain geological information to meet the needs of an underwater engineering project. Analyses of magnetic data revealed the fault structure of the bedrock and differences in lithology. At the proposed offshore dam site, the magnetic survey results indicated the position of faults which have since been confirmed by other geophysical surveys.     

Characteristics Analysis and Risk Assessment of Extreme Water Levels Based on 60-Year Observation Data in Xiamen,China

Extreme water levels are related to astronomical tides and storm surges.Eleven typhoon systems,which have caused extreme water level rises,were selected based on 60-yr water level data from the Xiamen tide gauge station.In these 11 typhoon systems,the astronomical tide component accounts for 71%-95%of the total water level.The Gumbel distribution of extreme water level rise was estimated,and the impact of typhoon surges on water levels during the return period was analyzed.The ex-treme tide levels caused by typhoons Herb(1996)and Dujuan(2015)are much higher than those of other typhoons and correspond to the return period of 76 yr and 71 yr,respectively.The differences of sea levels in the presence and absence of these two typhoons in the 10-100 yr return period are 5.8-11.1 cm.For the 100-yr return period,the total risks within 10,25,50,and 100 yr increase by 94.3%,85.4%,72.9%,and 54.4%,respectively,if the Herb and Dujuan are not considered.Assuming that typhoon Herb(1996)occurred during the highest astronomical tide,it will produce a water level higher than that of the 1000-yr return period.Sea level rise has an important influence on the water level return period,and the contribution of nonlinear sea level rise in the next 100 yr is estimated to be 10.34%.     

山东渤海沿岸第四纪地下卤水研究进展

山东渤海沿海岸广泛分布着丰富的第四纪地下卤水资源。近年来,相关部门大力开发地下卤水资源,其勘察研究程度逐渐提高。但是各勘察区域零散,山东省整个渤海沿岸地区第四纪地下卤水资源整体研究程度不够系统全面。该文在前人资料和研究成果的基础上,从3个方面对该区卤水资源的研究进展进行了综述,结合当前的研究工作分析,指出今后该区卤水资源研究的主要工作是卤水资源的可持续性利用及资源环境的可持续发展。     

Application of the Static Headland-Bay Beach Concept to a Sandy Beach: A New Elliptical Model

The headland-bay beach is one of the most common coastal types in the world.Its morphology reflects the changes that occurred during long-term evolution of the sandy coast.Several headland-bay beach models have been proposed to simulate the coastline’s configuration in equilibrium.In this paper,a new elliptical model is proposed,described,and applied.On the east coast of Laizhou Bay in Shandong Province from Longkou Port to Diaolongzui,four typical headland-bay beaches have developed,and four headland-bay beach models are used in this paper to simulate the morphology of these beaches to assess the applicability of each model.The simulation results of the elliptical model verify that it is applicable to the study area.In addition,the elliptical model is easy to use.Through simulation and field investigations,we concluded that most of the coastal segments in this area will remain in an erosion state,and the human activity has a significant impact on the shoreline’s evolution.     

A preliminary study on the distribution and genesis of underground brine in the littoral plain of Laizhou Bay in the Bohai Sea

Quaternary underground brine in the littoral plain region of the Bohai coast is new type littoral facies evaporation ore deposit in liquid state . This model of " littorally- forming brine " is based on study of the distribution, depositional environment, forming / storing process, and genesis of underground brine in the coast of Laizhou Bay . Essential conditions for genesis of brine are arid and semiarid climate , abundant sources of ancient seawater, and geological and geomorphological environment of wide tidal beach along a coast. The process of underground brine genesis may be : seawater/tidal beach-evaporation and concentration-seeping and accumulation- brine/tidal beach - burial (evolution of the sea- land )- underground brine .Underground brine is characterized by high content of chemical elements, shallow burial depth and easy exploitation . The process of extracting salt from underground brine present in the tidal flat is incomparably superior to that of producing salt from seawater, and has b