Typhoon wind hazard model and estimation on return period of typhoon wind speed

Typhoons are one of the most serious natural disasters that occur annually on China's southeast coast.A technique for analyzing the typhoon wind hazard was developed based on the empirical track model,and used to generate 1 000-year virtual typhoons for Northwest Pacific basin.The influences of typhoon decay model,track model,and the extreme value distribution on the predicted extreme wind speed were investigated.We found that different typhoon decay models have least influence on the predicted extreme wind speed.Over most of the southeast coast of China,the predicted wind speed by the nonsimplified empirical track model is larger than that from the simplified tracking model.The extreme wind speed predicted by different extreme value distribution is quite different.Four super typhoons Meranti(2016),Hato(2017),Mangkhut(2018),and Lekima(2019) were selected and the return periods of typhoon wind speeds along the China southeast coast were estimated in order to assess the typhoon wind hazard.     

深圳城市地面塌陷灾害特征及其成因分析

为了查明深圳市地面塌陷成因并提出防治措施,收集整理了深圳市2016-2020年地面塌陷灾害事故数据,通过现场调查、数据统计分析以及GIS空间分析,研究了深圳市地面塌陷灾害的时空分布、灾害危害程度以及塌陷成因等。结果表明：深圳市地面塌陷灾害正处于持续增长阶段,绝大多数属于小规模塌陷,且绝大多数发生在雨季,其中5-8月尤为严重;地面塌陷发灾点主要集中分布在福田区、罗湖区以及光明区,主要塌陷地点是市政道路和人行道;塌陷成因主要包括管网破损、暗渠河道破损、施工不当、雨水冲刷、软土沉降、车辆荷载过大以及其他原因,其中,管网破损和施工不当是造成地面塌陷的最主要原因。本研究成果可为深圳市及其他类似城市地面塌陷的防治工作提供一定的参考与借鉴。     

临沂市城区岩溶地下水流模拟

地下水动力条件变化是导致临沂市城区岩溶塌陷的诱因和动因,通过分析岩溶区地质及水文地质条件,建立了临沂市城区岩溶地下水流数值模型,预测了2007年6月至2019年6月地下水水位时空变化过程。从流场拟合情况看,所建模型拟合效果良好,客观反映了地下水系统演化规律,可以用于岩溶塌陷预警预报,为岩溶塌陷地质灾害防治提供技术依据。     

深圳市住宅用地价格影响因素空间差异化规律分析

影响因素是地价评估的核心和基础,深圳市目前还没有一套完整的影响因素体系,现有体系主观性较强,因此,制定一套合理的影响因素体系及分析其影响规律显得十分重要和迫切。采用了空间分析方法及特尔斐法,确定了住宅用地影响因素体系。运用地理加权回归模型(GWR模型)对体系中的11个影响因素进行分析,研究结果表明深圳市不同区域对相同影响因素的敏感性不一样,即影响程度不一样,深圳市住宅用地价格影响因素具有明显的差异化特征,为深圳市地价评估中选择估价因素、确定因素权重提供定量支撑。     

城市人群聚集消散时空模式探索分析——以深圳市为例

城市中人群的移动是带有目的性的,城市空间结构功能也存在差异,导致人群在城市中出现聚集或消散的现象,而且该现象会随着时间不断变化。本文基于海量的手机位置数据,以深圳市为例,采用自相关分析识别出城市中人群聚集与消散的区域,然后将这些区域一天中人群聚散组合成时间序列矩阵,采用自组织图聚类方法（SOM）进行聚类得到9种典型的人群聚集、消散时空模式,结合土地利用现状数据,分析解释了每种聚散模式最可能出现的土地利用组合。该研究从聚集和消散的角度探索了城市人群移动的时空模式,进一步帮助理解城市不同区域人群的移动模式以及与城市空间结构功能之间的关系,对城市规划、交通管理具有参考和指导意义。     

Model-simulated coastal trapped waves stimulated by typhoon in northwestern South China Sea

In this paper, we apply an unstructured grid coastal ocean model to simulate variations in the sea level and currents forced by two typhoons in the northwestern South China Sea (SCS). The model simulations show distinct differences for the two cases in which the typhoon paths were north and south of the Qiongzhou (QZ) Strait. In both cases, coastal trapped waves (CTWs) are stimulated but their propagation behaviors differ. Model sensitivity simulations suggest the dominant role played by alongshore wind in the eastern SCS (near Shanwei) and southeast of Hainan Island. We also examine the influence of the Leizhou Peninsula by changing the coastline in simulation experiments. Based on our results, we can draw the following conclusions: 1) The CTWs stimulated by the northern typhoon are stronger than the southern CTW. 2) In the two cases, the directions of the current structures of the QZ cross-transect are reversed. The strongest flow cores are both located in the middle-upper area of the strait and the results of our empirical orthogonal function analysis show that the vertical structure is highly barotropic. 3) The simulated CTWs divide into two branches in the QZ Strait for the northern typhoon, and an island trapped wave (ITW) around Hainan Island for the southern typhoon. 4) The Leizhou Peninsula plays a significant role in the distribution of the kinetic energy flux between the two CTW branches. In the presence of the Leizhou Peninsula, the QZ branch has only 39.7 percent of the total energy, whereas that ratio increases to 72.2 percent in its absence.     

Pattern dynamics of thermal-environment effect during urbanization: A case study in Shenzhen City, China

The thermal-environment effect exists in the field of rapid urbanization.It has adverse effects on the urban atmosphere,regional climate,energy consumption,and public health.Shenzhen,a representative of rapidly urbanizing cities in China,was selected as a case for pattern dynamics analysis of the thermal environment.The surface temperature was acquired from the thermal infrared data of Landsat TM and ETM+ images in 1986,1995,and 2005 by Jiménez-Mu?oz and Sobrino’s generalized single-channel method,which was used in assessing the distribution and spatial patterns of the thermal environment.The relative thermal environment curve(RTC) was combined with Moran’s I analysis to assess the pattern dynamics of the thermal environment in different urbanization periods.Moran’s I index and the RTC represent a process of aggregation-fragmentation-aggregation,which shows the aggregation pattern of a decrease during the rapid urbanization period and then an increase during the steady urbanization period.High-temperature areas gradually expanded to a uniform and scattered distribution in the rapid urbanization period;while the high thermal-environment effect was gradually transformed into a steady spatial pattern in the stable urbanization period.To characterize the increasing development in this multiple-center city,we chose profiles along an urban-development axis.The results suggest that heat islands have expanded from internal urban to external urban areas.Four profiles were obtained showing differences in shape due to spatial differences in the process of development.     

“数字城市”中网络模拟实验系统建设研究

 本文就推动“数字城市”的顺利发展,提出了一个建设网络模拟实验系统的新的组织结构方式。就此较为详细地阐述了该系统的意义与功用,并指出适用的建设原则和首要任务,同时予以示例说明     

多因素约束的城市空间扩张元胞自动机构建及其应用研究

城市空间扩张是复杂的社会经济进程,伴随着人口、政策和城市要素向外推进等现象,是评判城市化水平的重要指标。元胞自动机(Cellular Automata,CA)是可以模拟事物发展演化过程的系统动力学模型,可以有效揭示城市空间扩张过程的特征和机制,具有广阔的应用前景。根据Geo-CA的内涵与特征,以湖南省衡阳市为例,考虑城市空间扩张的主要影响因素,本文提出了多因素制约的城市空间扩张过程元胞自动机模拟模型(Multi-factors Constrained Expanding Simulation CA,MCESCA)。结合多期LANDSET影像、DEM和规划数据等数据源,论文构建并实现了MCES-CA模型,取得了较好的模拟结果。经检验,MCES-CA的模拟精度总体达89.24%。模拟结果显示衡阳主城区的空间扩张具有多方向、多阶段的特征,受到城市的自然环境和发展规划等因素的制约。本文研究表明,MCES-CA是一种简洁、易实现且高效的城市空间扩张模拟工具,今后应该结合人工智能方法提高模拟结果的精度。     

An Observational Study of Typhoon Imbudo in 2003

Typhoon Imbudo was a super-typhoon over the northwestern Pacific in 2003. It caused tremendous damage when it made landfalls in the Philippines and China. This paper documents observational analyses of Typhoon Imbudo during its landfall in China. All available observations are used to study its motion, intensity changes, convection, structure and precipitation. Best-track data indicate that Imbudo moved west-northwestward until 1800 UTC 23 July and then turned northwestward. FNL （final） analysis data show that the motion of Imbudo is dominated by changes of the subtropical high. At Imbudo＇s mature stage, the minimum sea level pressure dropped to 910 hPa and the maximum sustained winds were as high as 67 m s^-1, which is the intensity of a super-typhoon. The surface wind field exhibited asymmetric characteristics. Polar-orbiting satellite imagery also manifested convective asymmetry before Imbudo made landfall in China. Analyzed the vertical wind shear, it is shown that the convection has a downshear-left pattern. All kinds of precipitation data were used to identify the asymmetric characteristic of the rainfall associated with the Imbudo. The maximum rainfalls were located in the southern boundary area between Guangxi and Guangdong. However, the lack of in situ observations limited further analyses of this typhoon.     

无锡市城市扩张与热岛响应的遥感分析

以无锡市2001和2008年的Landsat TM/ETM+影像为数据源,采用DBI-SAVI指数相结合的方法,提取无锡市城镇信息,得到2001-2008年间无锡市城市扩张图。同时利用热红外波段反演城市地表温度,分别得到2001年和2008年无锡市城市地表温度分布图。最后,结合城市热场变异指数和无锡市2001-2008年社会经济和人文数据,分析城市扩张与热岛响应。结果表明:2001-2008年无锡城市化呈现出不断增加的态势,同时城市空间扩张呈现出不均匀性,主要表现为集中发展和条带状发展两个特点,扩张方向主要集中在常州-无锡-苏州城市中心线沿线和环太湖方向,其中,以东南部扩张最为迅速。在城市扩张的同时,无锡市地表温度逐渐上升,城市热岛面积不断扩大,由条带状分布变为哑铃状分布,城市扩张与热岛分布在空间上呈现出一致性,因此,城市热岛是城市扩张的直接反映。     

Analysis of the typhoon wave distribution simulated in WAVEWATCH- III model in the context of Kuroshio and wind-induced current

Journal of Oceanology and Limnology - To investigate the relationship between surface currents and wave distributions in typhoons, we took the Typhoon Talim in 2017 as a case, and found that the...     

煤矿排水对枣庄市清凉泉水源地污染作用分析

近年来,随着枣庄市陶枣矿区煤矿资源的大规模开发,矿坑排水对矿区地下水资源及生态环境产生的负面影响愈发突出,尤其是矿坑水沿地表河流排放途中,通过灰岩“天窗”大量灌入岩溶地下水中,造成地处煤田下游的清凉泉水源地水质遭受明显污染,供水水质难以保证。根据矿坑排水量、水源地水质、开采现状等分析认为,对串层污染进行封堵和控制矿坑水排放渠道是防治水源地污染的有效措施。     

山东威海滨海新城北部海域潮流数值模拟研究

山东省威海市滨海新城作为威海市的新行政中心,是威海市着力打造的宜居、宜业、宜游、宜学的现代化卓越新城。本文采用MIKE21FM平面二维数值模型研究威海市滨海新城北部海域的潮流场运动,并以分层流速流向实测资料对模型进行验证。结果表明,研究区潮流场流速和流向数值模拟结果与实测资料变化基本一致。     

青岛市黄岛区潮河水源地地下水数值模拟

在分析研究青岛市黄岛区潮河流域水文地质条件基础上,建立了水文地质概念模型和地下水流数值模拟模型,利用地下水水位动态监测资料对模型进行了识别,并预测了三枯一丰一平条件下地下水最大开采量以及水位、降深分布情况。结果表明,模型验证拟合结果较好,地下水最大开采量为2.4万m3/d,地下水开采不会引起地面沉降、海水入侵等问题。     

菏泽城市建设用地潜力情况调查分析

为保障经济的持续快速健康发展,解决项目落地难题,做到集约高效、科学合理用地,2005年菏泽市国土资源局利用1个月的时间,全面细致地开展了全市建设用地潜力情况的调查。基本摸清了全市建设用地潜力情况,并有针对性地提出了建议和措施。     

滨州市地面沉降成因浅析

截至2016年4月,滨州市地面沉降量超过20mm的面积达到了2 881km2,约占全市面积的30%,地面沉降灾害日益严重。为查明滨州市地面沉降现状和沉降成因,采用二等水准测量、地下水位监测、钻探取样、测试分析、地下水开采量调查等方法,对比2005年5月、2008年8月、2012年9月、2014年10月、2015年5月、2016年4月等多期二等水准测量数据和水位数据,从点、线、面3个方面进行了累计沉降量和沉降速率的分析,并从山前冲积、洪积平原水文地质单元区和黄河冲积平原水文地质单元区的水文地质特征、地层结构及其力学性质方面进行了滨州市地面沉降成因分析,基本查明了滨州市地面沉降现状及其演变特征,揭示了超量抽取地下水造成地下水位下降和具有较大压缩性的地层结构是影响该区地面沉降的2个主要因素。     

THE IMPROVEMENT OF ALKALINE MEADOW BY ACCUMULATIVE SAND BY WIND IN THE SONGNEN PLAIN

In the Songnen Plain, there are 330,000 ha of alkaline meadow, many sand sources such as fixed dunes, semi-fixed dunes and sand hills, and rich wind force resources as well. Sand has been stopped naturally and A neurolepidium chinense has grown on alkaline patch of the plain. If we make use of the natural law and set up manmade obstacles in alkaline patches, we can use accumulative sand to cover alkali, improve alkaline meadow, restore A neurolepidium chinense vegetation to develop animal husbandry.     

陕西省关中区域中心城市大气污染经济损失分析

在陕西省关中区域中心城市建设发展和环境状况资料调查和统计的基础上,应用市场价值、人力资本、机会成本法等环境经济分析的原理与方法,对5个中心城市大气污染造成的经济损失进行了分析计算,得出了污染经济损失估算值,从经济角度分析了环境污染造成的损失。     

莱芜市岩溶塌陷原因分析与评价

莱芜市孟公清—西泉河一带石灰岩溶洞裂隙发育 ,局部与上覆砂砾石层直接接触 ,形成“天窗” ,在矿区超采地下水及矿山疏干排水影响下 ,地下水下渗携带砂砾石进入灰岩溶洞裂隙中 ,突发岩溶塌陷。 1973～ 1997年共塌陷 139处 ,塌陷面积 6 4 35m2 ,致使 132 4户民房开裂 ,32 8户报废。根据 1997年在莱芜市的矿山地质勘察工作成果 ,采用综合指数法对评价区进行了预测评价 ,将评价区划分为岩溶塌陷区、预测岩溶塌陷区和不具备塌陷条件区 ,并根据岩溶塌陷产生的原因和规律 ,提出针对性的防治建议 ,为今后对岩溶塌陷的防治提供了依据